Pub Date : 2008-09-01DOI: 10.4337/9781781000632.00010
M. Amendola, S. Bruno, J. Gaffard
This paper is aimed at showing the complementarity between Richardson's and Hicks' contributions as regards the sketching out of a proper analytical framework for dynamic analysis. These contributions deal with two essential analytical ingredients that the out-of-equilibrium analysis of processes of economic change calls for: investment, in the sense of construction of productive capacity, and the relations which must be established for construction looked at as a process over time. In particular, light is thrown on the specific co-ordination problem that characterizes a process of economic change; a problem that arises at the junction of two strictly related lags: the phase of construction of productive capacity - which entails sunk costs - and the delay of transmission of information - which implies uncertainty. The analytical framework thus sketched out helps to understand why the economic agents' interaction does not bring about chaotic results, as long as the decision-makers are characterized by roughly stable patterns of behaviour and/or as long as a fair amount of co-ordination takes place, through various forms of cognitive exchange. It helps to show that the adoption of routines, the compliance to rules and customs, communicative action, the sharing of expectations about the behaviour of the system, the search for explicit agreements, are all mechanisms (or strategies) producing some degree of co-ordination, which confer the required order and stability to the environment.
{"title":"Hicks and Richardson on industrial change : analysis and policy","authors":"M. Amendola, S. Bruno, J. Gaffard","doi":"10.4337/9781781000632.00010","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4337/9781781000632.00010","url":null,"abstract":"This paper is aimed at showing the complementarity between Richardson's and Hicks' contributions as regards the sketching out of a proper analytical framework for dynamic analysis. These contributions deal with two essential analytical ingredients that the out-of-equilibrium analysis of processes of economic change calls for: investment, in the sense of construction of productive capacity, and the relations which must be established for construction looked at as a process over time. In particular, light is thrown on the specific co-ordination problem that characterizes a process of economic change; a problem that arises at the junction of two strictly related lags: the phase of construction of productive capacity - which entails sunk costs - and the delay of transmission of information - which implies uncertainty. The analytical framework thus sketched out helps to understand why the economic agents' interaction does not bring about chaotic results, as long as the decision-makers are characterized by roughly stable patterns of behaviour and/or as long as a fair amount of co-ordination takes place, through various forms of cognitive exchange. It helps to show that the adoption of routines, the compliance to rules and customs, communicative action, the sharing of expectations about the behaviour of the system, the search for explicit agreements, are all mechanisms (or strategies) producing some degree of co-ordination, which confer the required order and stability to the environment.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"20 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133338712","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2008-09-01DOI: 10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199698547.003.0016
Jean-Paul Fitoussi, F. Saraceno
The paper endorses the thesis that current macro imbalances are partly due to an excess of household savings in China, whose origin is to be found among other things in household uncertainty about the provision of public services like health care, pensions and education. Focusing on health services, because of their priority in the concerns of the Chinese people, we describe the recent trends in the provision of health care. We then argue that social spending by the government may have important intergenerational content, in that it allows higher private spending, lower inequality, higher levels of human capital and the like. All these factors are related to the potential growth rate of the economy. We conclude that a more important role of the government in the sector of public services, and in particular of health care, may help reduce the possibility of future bottlenecks, and hence help keeping the Chinese economy on a sustainable growth path. We conclude the paper by an assessment of the current debate on how to reform the system, and we advocate universal publicly funded basic health coverage.
{"title":"The Intergenerational Content of Social Spending: Health Care and Sustainable Growth in China","authors":"Jean-Paul Fitoussi, F. Saraceno","doi":"10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199698547.003.0016","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199698547.003.0016","url":null,"abstract":"The paper endorses the thesis that current macro imbalances are partly due to an excess of household savings in China, whose origin is to be found among other things in household uncertainty about the provision of public services like health care, pensions and education. Focusing on health services, because of their priority in the concerns of the Chinese people, we describe the recent trends in the provision of health care. We then argue that social spending by the government may have important intergenerational content, in that it allows higher private spending, lower inequality, higher levels of human capital and the like. All these factors are related to the potential growth rate of the economy. We conclude that a more important role of the government in the sector of public services, and in particular of health care, may help reduce the possibility of future bottlenecks, and hence help keeping the Chinese economy on a sustainable growth path. We conclude the paper by an assessment of the current debate on how to reform the system, and we advocate universal publicly funded basic health coverage.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"4 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114295988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
L’etude presentee ici – menee a partir d’une selection de sites Internet les plus representatifs de la culture scientifique, technique et industrielle – a consiste en une analyse concomitante des pratiques(les usages des internautes) et de l’offre (les strategies editoriales des sites) et a permis de definir des strategies possibles pour la mise en place d’une politique de CSTI sur le Web 2.0.
{"title":"Web CSTI : le Web est un autre monde !","authors":"D. Boullier","doi":"10.4000/OCIM.324","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4000/OCIM.324","url":null,"abstract":"L’etude presentee ici – menee a partir d’une selection de sites Internet les plus representatifs de la culture scientifique, technique et industrielle – a consiste en une analyse concomitante des pratiques(les usages des internautes) et de l’offre (les strategies editoriales des sites) et a permis de definir des strategies possibles pour la mise en place d’une politique de CSTI sur le Web 2.0.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-05-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131988463","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Dans le contexte de la hausse du prix des matieres premieres, cette etude speciale evalue le risque de derive inflationniste. Dans un premier temps, nous revenons sur les facteurs responsables du recent regain d’inflation : l’effet de base et l’acceleration des prix des matieres premieres. Nous nous interrogeons sur le caractere permanent ou transitoire de cette derive des prix et sur l’eventualite d’une bulle sur ces marches. A part le prix du petrole, le risque d’une nouvelle envolee des prix semble limite. De ce point de vue, une baisse de l’inflation est anticipee. Par ailleurs, l’analyse de plusieurs secteurs de l’industrie alimentaire francaise fait apparaitre que la these, selon laquelle cette industrie aurait profite des hausses du prix des matieres premieres pour augmenter ses marges, ne semble pas verifiee. Reste cependant a savoir si l’accumulation des hausses passees ne pourrait pas a terme se traduire par une hausse de l’inflation via un effet dit de « second tour ». Pour compenser la perte de leur pouvoir d’achat, il est possible que les salaries demandent des hausses de salaire que les entreprises repercuteraient a leur tour dans leur prix afin de maintenir leur marge. Ces nouvelles hausses de prix entraineraient celles des salaires et ainsi de suite. Pour evaluer la probabilite d’enclenchement d’un tel mecanisme, nous revenons sur les processus d’indexation des salaires en vigueur dans les principaux pays de la zone euro (Allemagne, France, Italie) et aux Etats-Unis. Des courbes de Phillips reduites pour ces pays ainsi que pour la zone euro agregee sont estimees afin de tester les niveaux et les delais d’indexation. Le rejet de l’hypothese d’indexation unitaire dans tous ces pays semble ecarter le risque de second tour. Comme il est possible que l’econometrie sous estime les niveaux d’indexation, nous avons evalue le cout d’un choc petrolier en termes de taux de chomage dans le cas d’une indexation unitaire.
{"title":"Inflation : prix au piège","authors":"Christophe Blot, Marion Cochard, Matthieu Lemoine, Paola Veroni, Hervé Péléraux, Frédéric Reynés, Christine Rifflart, Danielle Schweisguth","doi":"10.3917/reof.105.0275","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/reof.105.0275","url":null,"abstract":"Dans le contexte de la hausse du prix des matieres premieres, cette etude speciale evalue le risque de derive inflationniste. Dans un premier temps, nous revenons sur les facteurs responsables du recent regain d’inflation : l’effet de base et l’acceleration des prix des matieres premieres. Nous nous interrogeons sur le caractere permanent ou transitoire de cette derive des prix et sur l’eventualite d’une bulle sur ces marches. A part le prix du petrole, le risque d’une nouvelle envolee des prix semble limite. De ce point de vue, une baisse de l’inflation est anticipee. Par ailleurs, l’analyse de plusieurs secteurs de l’industrie alimentaire francaise fait apparaitre que la these, selon laquelle cette industrie aurait profite des hausses du prix des matieres premieres pour augmenter ses marges, ne semble pas verifiee. Reste cependant a savoir si l’accumulation des hausses passees ne pourrait pas a terme se traduire par une hausse de l’inflation via un effet dit de « second tour ». Pour compenser la perte de leur pouvoir d’achat, il est possible que les salaries demandent des hausses de salaire que les entreprises repercuteraient a leur tour dans leur prix afin de maintenir leur marge. Ces nouvelles hausses de prix entraineraient celles des salaires et ainsi de suite. Pour evaluer la probabilite d’enclenchement d’un tel mecanisme, nous revenons sur les processus d’indexation des salaires en vigueur dans les principaux pays de la zone euro (Allemagne, France, Italie) et aux Etats-Unis. Des courbes de Phillips reduites pour ces pays ainsi que pour la zone euro agregee sont estimees afin de tester les niveaux et les delais d’indexation. Le rejet de l’hypothese d’indexation unitaire dans tous ces pays semble ecarter le risque de second tour. Comme il est possible que l’econometrie sous estime les niveaux d’indexation, nous avons evalue le cout d’un choc petrolier en termes de taux de chomage dans le cas d’une indexation unitaire.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"53 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-04-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123830439","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2008-03-01DOI: 10.4135/9781849200387.n12
M. Djelic, S. Quack
At a first level, the notions of ‘institutions’ and ‘globalization’ could appear to exclude oroppose each other. The notion of institution suggests stability or at least an attempt at stabilization. An institutionalist perspective startsfrom the basic recognition that human activities, including activities of an economic nature, are embedded and framed within larger institutional schemes that are, on the whole, quitestable (Weber 1978; Polanyi 1944). A core dimension of the institutionalist project has been to understand how embeddedness matters, how institutions constrain and structure action, create regularities and stability, limitingat the same time the range of options and opportunities. In contrast, the process of globalization is often associated with the breakdown of traditional rules of the game andinstitutions, in particular through the weakening of national states and their order-creating capacities. [First lines]
{"title":"Institutions and Transnationalization","authors":"M. Djelic, S. Quack","doi":"10.4135/9781849200387.n12","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.4135/9781849200387.n12","url":null,"abstract":"At a first level, the notions of ‘institutions’ and ‘globalization’ could appear to exclude oroppose each other. The notion of institution suggests stability or at least an attempt at stabilization. An institutionalist perspective startsfrom the basic recognition that human activities, including activities of an economic nature, are embedded and framed within larger institutional schemes that are, on the whole, quitestable (Weber 1978; Polanyi 1944). A core dimension of the institutionalist project has been to understand how embeddedness matters, how institutions constrain and structure action, create regularities and stability, limitingat the same time the range of options and opportunities. In contrast, the process of globalization is often associated with the breakdown of traditional rules of the game andinstitutions, in particular through the weakening of national states and their order-creating capacities. [First lines]","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"150 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117325667","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2008-02-08DOI: 10.1920/WP.CEM.2008.0208
S. Bonhomme, J. Robin
In this paper, we document whether and how much the equalizing force of earnings mobility has changed in France in the 1990’s. For this purpose, we use a representative three-year panel, the French Labour Force Survey. We develop a model of earnings dynamics that combines a flexible specification of marginal earnings distributions (to fit the large cross-sectional dimension of the data) with a tight parametric representation of the dynamics (adapted to the short time-series dimension). Log earnings are modelled as the sum of a deterministic component, an individual fixed effect and a transitory component which is assumed first-order Markov. The transition probability of the transitory component is modelled as a one-parameter Plackett copula. We estimate this model using a sequential expectation-maximization algorithm. We exploit the estimated model to study employment/earnings inequality in France over the 1990– 2002 period. We show that, in phase with business-cycle fluctuations (a recession in 1993 and two peaks in 1990 and 2000), earnings mobility decreases when cross-section inequality and unemployment risk increase. We simulate individual earnings trajectories and compute present values of lifetime earnings for various horizons. Inequality presents a hump-shaped evolution over the period, with a 9% increase between 1990 and 1995 and a decrease afterwards. Accounting for unemployment yields an increase of 11%. Moreover, this increase is persistent, as it translates into a 12% increase in the variance of log present values. The ratio of inequality in present values to inequality in one-year earnings, a natural measure of immobility or of the persistence of inequality, remains remarkably constant over the business cycle.
{"title":"Assessing the Equalizing Force of Mobility Using Short Panels: France, 1990–2000","authors":"S. Bonhomme, J. Robin","doi":"10.1920/WP.CEM.2008.0208","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1920/WP.CEM.2008.0208","url":null,"abstract":"In this paper, we document whether and how much the equalizing force of earnings mobility has changed in France in the 1990’s. For this purpose, we use a representative three-year panel, the French Labour Force Survey. We develop a model of earnings dynamics that combines a flexible specification of marginal earnings distributions (to fit the large cross-sectional dimension of the data) with a tight parametric representation of the dynamics (adapted to the short time-series dimension). Log earnings are modelled as the sum of a deterministic component, an individual fixed effect and a transitory component which is assumed first-order Markov. The transition probability of the transitory component is modelled as a one-parameter Plackett copula. We estimate this model using a sequential expectation-maximization algorithm. We exploit the estimated model to study employment/earnings inequality in France over the 1990– 2002 period. We show that, in phase with business-cycle fluctuations (a recession in 1993 and two peaks in 1990 and 2000), earnings mobility decreases when cross-section inequality and unemployment risk increase. We simulate individual earnings trajectories and compute present values of lifetime earnings for various horizons. Inequality presents a hump-shaped evolution over the period, with a 9% increase between 1990 and 1995 and a decrease afterwards. Accounting for unemployment yields an increase of 11%. Moreover, this increase is persistent, as it translates into a 12% increase in the variance of log present values. The ratio of inequality in present values to inequality in one-year earnings, a natural measure of immobility or of the persistence of inequality, remains remarkably constant over the business cycle.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"13 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2008-02-08","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115017064","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"If it’s Broken, Don’t Fix it: The Government of the Euro area in the EU “Reform Treaty”","authors":"Éloi Laurent","doi":"10.1057/9780230276130_9","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230276130_9","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"71 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124429152","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
C. Mathieu, Christine Rifflart, Hervé Péléraux, Xavier Timbeau, Paola Veroni, Sabine Le Bayon
Le retournement sur le marche de l’immobilier est desormais engage de part et d’autre de l’Atlantique. Plus precoce au Royaume-Uni et aux Etats-Unis qu’en zone euro du fait de resserrements monetaires commences plus tot, il ne prefigure heureusement en rien ce qui peut se passer pres de chez nous. Les marches sont et restent deconnectes les uns des autres. Si l’ajustement est particulierement violent aux Etats-Unis, c’est que les desequilibres y ont ete plus profonds. L’abondance d’offre de credits par les banques, permise par la titrisation des creances hypothecaires, a conduit les menages a agir a leur insu comme des speculateurs, misant sur la hausse des prix de leur bien pour asseoir leur solvabilite. Or, la reinitialisation (resets) des taux sur les credits passes combinee a la baisse des prix immobiliers dans de nombreux Etats americains rend desormais cette dynamique impossible. L’heure des comptes a sonne, jetant de nombreux menages a la porte de chez eux (...).
{"title":"Immobilier: jeu dangereux","authors":"C. Mathieu, Christine Rifflart, Hervé Péléraux, Xavier Timbeau, Paola Veroni, Sabine Le Bayon","doi":"10.3917/REOF.103.0197","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/REOF.103.0197","url":null,"abstract":"Le retournement sur le marche de l’immobilier est desormais engage de part et d’autre de l’Atlantique. Plus precoce au Royaume-Uni et aux Etats-Unis qu’en zone euro du fait de resserrements monetaires commences plus tot, il ne prefigure heureusement en rien ce qui peut se passer pres de chez nous. Les marches sont et restent deconnectes les uns des autres. Si l’ajustement est particulierement violent aux Etats-Unis, c’est que les desequilibres y ont ete plus profonds. L’abondance d’offre de credits par les banques, permise par la titrisation des creances hypothecaires, a conduit les menages a agir a leur insu comme des speculateurs, misant sur la hausse des prix de leur bien pour asseoir leur solvabilite. Or, la reinitialisation (resets) des taux sur les credits passes combinee a la baisse des prix immobiliers dans de nombreux Etats americains rend desormais cette dynamique impossible. L’heure des comptes a sonne, jetant de nombreux menages a la porte de chez eux (...).","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129151402","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"The Irish Tiger and the German Frog: A Tale of Size and Growth in the Euro Area","authors":"Éloi Laurent, J. L. Cacheux","doi":"10.1057/9780230276130_6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230276130_6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"14 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128805988","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
{"title":"Globalization and the Twin Protections","authors":"Jean-Paul Fitoussi","doi":"10.1057/9780230276130_2","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1057/9780230276130_2","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"12 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2007-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129993315","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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