En reference aux travaux qui eclairent la constitution des trajectoires des universitaires aux Etats-Unis, nous analysons les determinants de l’acces au professorat des universites en France dans trois disciplines (histoire, physique, gestion). Parmi ces determinants, nous cherchons a mesurer l’impact de caracteristiques individuelles (âge, genre), la place de la production scientifique et l’importance de variables institutionnelles, qu’elles soient liees a chacune des disciplines etudiees ou au mode d’acces a la promotion (concours d’agregation vs recrutement). Nous cherchons egalement a comprendre l’evolution de ces determinants au cours de la periode observee pour rendre compte des transformations des carrieres academiques. Nos resultats s’appuient sur des analyses statistiques effectuees sur une base de donnees originale appariant donnees individuelles et donnees bibliometriques relatives a quatre cohortes d’enseignants-chercheurs dans les trois disciplines choisies, totalisant plus de 800 individus.
{"title":"Devenir professeur des universités: Une comparaison sur trois disciplines (1976-2007)","authors":"Mareva Sabatier, C. Musselin, F. Pigeyre","doi":"10.3917/RECO.661.0037","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/RECO.661.0037","url":null,"abstract":"En reference aux travaux qui eclairent la constitution des trajectoires des universitaires aux Etats-Unis, nous analysons les determinants de l’acces au professorat des universites en France dans trois disciplines (histoire, physique, gestion). Parmi ces determinants, nous cherchons a mesurer l’impact de caracteristiques individuelles (âge, genre), la place de la production scientifique et l’importance de variables institutionnelles, qu’elles soient liees a chacune des disciplines etudiees ou au mode d’acces a la promotion (concours d’agregation vs recrutement). Nous cherchons egalement a comprendre l’evolution de ces determinants au cours de la periode observee pour rendre compte des transformations des carrieres academiques. Nos resultats s’appuient sur des analyses statistiques effectuees sur une base de donnees originale appariant donnees individuelles et donnees bibliometriques relatives a quatre cohortes d’enseignants-chercheurs dans les trois disciplines choisies, totalisant plus de 800 individus.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"2009 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2015-01-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116944721","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
La volonte de posseder son « chez soi » et de se constituer un patrimoine est largement generalisee en Europe. La baisse des taux d’interet au cours des annees 2000 et la concurrence accrue entre etablissements bancaires ont favorise la distribution du credit avant que la crise financiere de 2007 ne remette en question ces evolutions. Malgre des mesures publiques de soutien au secteur immobilier, la chute du credit (dans un contexte d’assainissement du bilan des banques et de ralentissement de la croissance du revenu des menages) s’est accompagnee, apres une decennie de boom immobilier, d’une baisse des prix immobiliers dans de nombreux pays europeens. L’exception notable etant l’Allemagne ou apres dix ans de baisse, les prix se sont stabilises au milieu des annees 2000 et remontent meme depuis 2010. Face a ces evolutions, nous observons ici dans quelle mesure d’une part la mobilite des menages a evolue et d’autre part le contexte macroeconomique a modifie le profil des menages qui achetent. Nos regressions logit confirment que les premieres victimes du resserrement des conditions de credit ont ete les menages les plus jeunes et/ou les plus modestes. Dans l’ensemble des pays etudies (Allemagne, Espagne, France, Italie et Royaume-Uni), les menages modestes ont vu leur probabilite d’achat fortement reduite et ce meme en Allemagne ou la probabilite d’achat des autres menages a eu tendance a stagner voire a croitre. La probabilite d’achat des menages de moins de 30 ans a particulierement baisse en Espagne. Seule exception, la France, ou le maintien de conditions de credit assez favorables, la reforme du pret a taux zero et l’augmentation des donations ont permis aux jeunes de continuer a acheter dans les memes proportions. Classification JEL : D14, E21, R21, R31, R38.
{"title":"L'évolution en Europe du profil des ménages propriétaires pendant la crise","authors":"Sabine Le Bayon, Pierre Madec","doi":"10.3917/ECOFI.115.0087","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/ECOFI.115.0087","url":null,"abstract":"La volonte de posseder son « chez soi » et de se constituer un patrimoine est largement generalisee en Europe. La baisse des taux d’interet au cours des annees 2000 et la concurrence accrue entre etablissements bancaires ont favorise la distribution du credit avant que la crise financiere de 2007 ne remette en question ces evolutions. Malgre des mesures publiques de soutien au secteur immobilier, la chute du credit (dans un contexte d’assainissement du bilan des banques et de ralentissement de la croissance du revenu des menages) s’est accompagnee, apres une decennie de boom immobilier, d’une baisse des prix immobiliers dans de nombreux pays europeens. L’exception notable etant l’Allemagne ou apres dix ans de baisse, les prix se sont stabilises au milieu des annees 2000 et remontent meme depuis 2010. Face a ces evolutions, nous observons ici dans quelle mesure d’une part la mobilite des menages a evolue et d’autre part le contexte macroeconomique a modifie le profil des menages qui achetent. Nos regressions logit confirment que les premieres victimes du resserrement des conditions de credit ont ete les menages les plus jeunes et/ou les plus modestes. Dans l’ensemble des pays etudies (Allemagne, Espagne, France, Italie et Royaume-Uni), les menages modestes ont vu leur probabilite d’achat fortement reduite et ce meme en Allemagne ou la probabilite d’achat des autres menages a eu tendance a stagner voire a croitre. La probabilite d’achat des menages de moins de 30 ans a particulierement baisse en Espagne. Seule exception, la France, ou le maintien de conditions de credit assez favorables, la reforme du pret a taux zero et l’augmentation des donations ont permis aux jeunes de continuer a acheter dans les memes proportions. Classification JEL : D14, E21, R21, R31, R38.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"32 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-10-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114755932","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pierre Sicsic, P. Waechter, Éric Heyer, Xavier Ragot, Xavier Timbeau
Xavier Ragot : Dans le cadre des previsions de l’OFCE pour 2014 et 2015, dans un premier temps sur la zone euro et le reste du monde, nous vous proposons de donner votre appreciation sur le risque de deflation en zone euro, sur comment vous envisagez la situation des Etats-Unis et du Royaume-Uni et si vous prevoyez la sortie de crise au Japon. Pensez-vous que la Reserve federale et la Banque d’Angleterre vont remonter leurs taux ou seulement mettre un terme au quantitative easing ? Combien de temps va durer l’austerite dans les pays industrialises et y a-t-il un risque pour les pays emergents ? [Premier paragraphe du debat]
{"title":"Débat sur les perspectives économiques à court terme du 29 octobre 2014","authors":"Pierre Sicsic, P. Waechter, Éric Heyer, Xavier Ragot, Xavier Timbeau","doi":"10.3917/reof.136.0293","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/reof.136.0293","url":null,"abstract":"Xavier Ragot : Dans le cadre des previsions de l’OFCE pour 2014 et 2015, dans un premier temps sur la zone euro et le reste du monde, nous vous proposons de donner votre appreciation sur le risque de deflation en zone euro, sur comment vous envisagez la situation des Etats-Unis et du Royaume-Uni et si vous prevoyez la sortie de crise au Japon. Pensez-vous que la Reserve federale et la Banque d’Angleterre vont remonter leurs taux ou seulement mettre un terme au quantitative easing ? Combien de temps va durer l’austerite dans les pays industrialises et y a-t-il un risque pour les pays emergents ? [Premier paragraphe du debat]","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117304168","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We show that isolated capital cities are robustly associated with greater levels of corruption across US states, in line with the view that this isolation reduces accountability. We then provide direct evidence that the spatial distribution of population relative to the capital affects different accountability mechanisms: newspapers cover state politics more when readers are closer to the capital, voters who live far from the capital are less knowledgeable and interested in state politics, and they turn out less in state elections. We also find that isolated capitals are associated with more money in state-level campaigns, and worse public good provision.
{"title":"Isolated Capital Cities, Accountability and Corruption: Evidence from US States","authors":"Filipe R. Campante, Quoc-Anh Do","doi":"10.3386/w19027","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w19027","url":null,"abstract":"We show that isolated capital cities are robustly associated with greater levels of corruption across US states, in line with the view that this isolation reduces accountability. We then provide direct evidence that the spatial distribution of population relative to the capital affects different accountability mechanisms: newspapers cover state politics more when readers are closer to the capital, voters who live far from the capital are less knowledgeable and interested in state politics, and they turn out less in state elections. We also find that isolated capitals are associated with more money in state-level campaigns, and worse public good provision.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"3 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131231602","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2014-06-18DOI: 10.1920/WP.CEM.2014.4814
G. Carlier, V. Chernozhukov, Alfred Galichon
We propose a notion of conditional vector quantile function and a vector quantile regression. A conditional vector quantile function (CVQF) of a random vector Y, taking values in ℝd given covariates Z=z, taking values in ℝk, is a map u↦QY∣Z(u,z), which is monotone, in the sense of being a gradient of a convex function, and such that given that vector U follows a reference non-atomic distribution FU, for instance uniform distribution on a unit cube in ℝd, the random vector QY∣Z(U,z) has the distribution of Y conditional on Z=z. Moreover, we have a strong representation, Y=QY∣Z(U,Z) almost surely, for some version of U. The vector quantile regression (VQR) is a linear model for CVQF of Y given Z. Under correct specification, the notion produces strong representation, Y=β(U)⊤f(Z), for f(Z) denoting a known set of transformations of Z, where u↦β(u)⊤f(Z) is a monotone map, the gradient of a convex function, and the quantile regression coefficients u↦β(u) have the interpretations analogous to that of the standard scalar quantile regression. As f(Z) becomes a richer class of transformations of Z, the model becomes nonparametric, as in series modelling. A key property of VQR is the embedding of the classical Monge-Kantorovich's optimal transportation problem at its core as a special case. In the classical case, where Y is scalar, VQR reduces to a version of the classical QR, and CVQF reduces to the scalar conditional quantile function. Several applications to diverse problems such as multiple Engel curve estimation, and measurement of financial risk, are considered.
{"title":"Vector Quantile Regression","authors":"G. Carlier, V. Chernozhukov, Alfred Galichon","doi":"10.1920/WP.CEM.2014.4814","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1920/WP.CEM.2014.4814","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a notion of conditional vector quantile function and a vector quantile regression. A conditional vector quantile function (CVQF) of a random vector Y, taking values in ℝd given covariates Z=z, taking values in ℝk, is a map u↦QY∣Z(u,z), which is monotone, in the sense of being a gradient of a convex function, and such that given that vector U follows a reference non-atomic distribution FU, for instance uniform distribution on a unit cube in ℝd, the random vector QY∣Z(U,z) has the distribution of Y conditional on Z=z. Moreover, we have a strong representation, Y=QY∣Z(U,Z) almost surely, for some version of U. The vector quantile regression (VQR) is a linear model for CVQF of Y given Z. Under correct specification, the notion produces strong representation, Y=β(U)⊤f(Z), for f(Z) denoting a known set of transformations of Z, where u↦β(u)⊤f(Z) is a monotone map, the gradient of a convex function, and the quantile regression coefficients u↦β(u) have the interpretations analogous to that of the standard scalar quantile regression. As f(Z) becomes a richer class of transformations of Z, the model becomes nonparametric, as in series modelling. A key property of VQR is the embedding of the classical Monge-Kantorovich's optimal transportation problem at its core as a special case. In the classical case, where Y is scalar, VQR reduces to a version of the classical QR, and CVQF reduces to the scalar conditional quantile function. Several applications to diverse problems such as multiple Engel curve estimation, and measurement of financial risk, are considered.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"41 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-18","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124736507","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2014-03-14DOI: 10.1920/WP.CEM.2014.1114
S. Bonhomme, Koen Jochmans, J. Robin
The aim of this paper is to provide simple nonparametric methods to estimate finitemixture models from data with repeated measurements. Three measurements suffice for the mixture to be fully identified and so our approach can be used even with very short panel data. We provide distribution theory for estimators of the mixing proportions and the mixture distributions, and various functionals thereof. We also discuss inference on the number of components. These estimators are found to perform well in a series of Monte Carlo exercises. We apply our techniques to document heterogeneity in log annual earnings using PSID data spanning the period 1969–1998.
{"title":"Nonparametric estimation of finite mixtures","authors":"S. Bonhomme, Koen Jochmans, J. Robin","doi":"10.1920/WP.CEM.2014.1114","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1920/WP.CEM.2014.1114","url":null,"abstract":"The aim of this paper is to provide simple nonparametric methods to estimate finitemixture models from data with repeated measurements. Three measurements suffice for the mixture to be fully identified and so our approach can be used even with very short panel data. We provide distribution theory for estimators of the mixing proportions and the mixture distributions, and various functionals thereof. We also discuss inference on the number of components. These estimators are found to perform well in a series of Monte Carlo exercises. We apply our techniques to document heterogeneity in log annual earnings using PSID data spanning the period 1969–1998.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"24 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125916117","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2014-03-01DOI: 10.1017/S0022050714000011
Élise Huillery
Was colonization very costly for the metropole? This view has been widely accepted among French historians, even though little empirical evidence has been provided. Using original data from the colonial budgets of French West Africa (AOF), this paper provides new insights into the actual colonial public funding in this part of the French empire. Comparing the financial transfers from the metropole to AOF to total metropolitan expenses reveals that the cost of colonization of the AOF for French taxpayers was extremely low: French subsidies to the AOF represented on average 0.007 percent of total metropolitan expenses. From the AOF side, financial transfers from the metropole were not that beneficiary since French subsidies represented on average 0.4 percent of total local revenue. Including the public loans and cash advances from the metropole does not change this general pattern. West Africans therefore funded most colonial public investments, which reveal to be very small. One reason for the scarcity of public investments is the cost of French civil servants serving in the colonies, which turned out to be a considerable burden for Africans: French government officials alone represented 20 percent of total local public expenses.
{"title":"The Black Man's Burden :The Cost of Colonization of French West Africa","authors":"Élise Huillery","doi":"10.1017/S0022050714000011","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1017/S0022050714000011","url":null,"abstract":"Was colonization very costly for the metropole? This view has been widely accepted among French historians, even though little empirical evidence has been provided. Using original data from the colonial budgets of French West Africa (AOF), this paper provides new insights into the actual colonial public funding in this part of the French empire. Comparing the financial transfers from the metropole to AOF to total metropolitan expenses reveals that the cost of colonization of the AOF for French taxpayers was extremely low: French subsidies to the AOF represented on average 0.007 percent of total metropolitan expenses. From the AOF side, financial transfers from the metropole were not that beneficiary since French subsidies represented on average 0.4 percent of total local revenue. Including the public loans and cash advances from the metropole does not change this general pattern. West Africans therefore funded most colonial public investments, which reveal to be very small. One reason for the scarcity of public investments is the cost of French civil servants serving in the colonies, which turned out to be a considerable burden for Africans: French government officials alone represented 20 percent of total local public expenses.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"162 6","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120988783","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2013-11-01DOI: 10.12759/hsr.42.2017.1.23-51
M. Fourcade, Kieran Healy
This article examines the stratifying effects of economic classifications. We argue that in the neoliberal era market institutions increasingly use actuarial techniques to split and sort individuals into classification situations that shape life-chances. While this is a general and increasingly pervasive process, our main empirical illustration comes from the transformation of the credit market in the United States. This market works as both as a leveling force and as a condenser of new forms of social difference. The U.S. banking and credit system has greatly broadened its scope over the past twenty years to incorporate previously excluded groups. We observe this leveling tendency in the expansion of credit amongst lower-income households, the systematization of overdraft protections, and the unexpected and rapid growth of the fringe banking sector. But while access to credit has democratized, it has also differentiated. Scoring technologies classify and price people according to credit risk. This has allowed multiple new distinctions to be made amongst the creditworthy, as scores get attached to different interest rates and loan structures. Scores have also expanded into markets beyond consumer credit, such as insurance, real estate, employment, and elsewhere. The result is a cumulative pattern of advantage and disadvantage with both objectively measured and subjectively experienced aspects. We argue these private classificatory tools are increasingly central to the generation of ‘‘market-situations’’, and thus an important and overlooked force that structures individual life-chances. In short, classification situations may have become the engine of modern class situations. 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
{"title":"Classification situations: Life-chances in the neoliberal era","authors":"M. Fourcade, Kieran Healy","doi":"10.12759/hsr.42.2017.1.23-51","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12759/hsr.42.2017.1.23-51","url":null,"abstract":"This article examines the stratifying effects of economic classifications. We argue that in the neoliberal era market institutions increasingly use actuarial techniques to split and sort individuals into classification situations that shape life-chances. While this is a general and increasingly pervasive process, our main empirical illustration comes from the transformation of the credit market in the United States. This market works as both as a leveling force and as a condenser of new forms of social difference. The U.S. banking and credit system has greatly broadened its scope over the past twenty years to incorporate previously excluded groups. We observe this leveling tendency in the expansion of credit amongst lower-income households, the systematization of overdraft protections, and the unexpected and rapid growth of the fringe banking sector. But while access to credit has democratized, it has also differentiated. Scoring technologies classify and price people according to credit risk. This has allowed multiple new distinctions to be made amongst the creditworthy, as scores get attached to different interest rates and loan structures. Scores have also expanded into markets beyond consumer credit, such as insurance, real estate, employment, and elsewhere. The result is a cumulative pattern of advantage and disadvantage with both objectively measured and subjectively experienced aspects. We argue these private classificatory tools are increasingly central to the generation of ‘‘market-situations’’, and thus an important and overlooked force that structures individual life-chances. In short, classification situations may have become the engine of modern class situations. 2013 Published by Elsevier Ltd.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-11-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129936239","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
C. Antonin, Christophe Blot, P. Hubert, Fabien Labondance, C. Mathieu, Christine Rifflart, V. Touzé
Depuis 2009, les principales banques centrales mettent en oeuvre des politiques monetaires expansionnistes afin de stimuler l'activite economique, reduire les risques de spirale deflationniste et soutenir le systeme financier. Ces politiques se sont traduites par des taux d'interet fixes a leur plus bas niveau ou presque et par des mesures non conventionnelles. L'amelioration recente du climat conjoncturel et la volonte affichee des banques centrales d'organiser le retrait progressif des mesures non conventionnelles posent la question d'une eventuelle normalisation des politiques monetaires. Pour autant, toute hausse des taux d'interet d'ici 2014 est exclue. En effet, le risque inflationniste est inexistant et la croissance anticipee trop moderee pour entrainer une baisse rapide du taux de chomage. Or, la Reserve federale et la Banque d'Angleterre ont conditionne un relevement du taux d'interet a une cible de taux de chomage. Cette politique de communication (forward guidance ou orientation prospective) relative aux taux d'interet a pour objectif d'ancrer les anticipations de taux et de fournir par ce biais un soutien a la croissance. Cette strategie accompagne l'ensemble des mesures non conventionnelles de nature plus quantitatives telles que les programmes d'achat de titre ou les operations exceptionnelles de refinancement du systeme bancaire. La normalisation des operations de politique monetaire passe par un retrait progressif de ces mesures non conventionnelles. Mais l'annonce de Ben Bernanke d'un eventuel ralentissement progressif du rythme des achats de titres par la Reserve federale a provoque de la volatilite sur les marches et une augmentation rapide des taux a long terme. Des lors, les banques centrales doivent faire preuve d'une grande prudence afin d'eviter une normalisation trop hâtive des politiques monetaires. Ceci d'autant plus que les risques associes a ces mesures (developpement de nouvelles bulles, independance des banques centrales ou risques inflationnistes) ne paraissent pas etre aujourd'hui la principale menace dans les pays industrialises (...).
自2009年以来，主要央行一直在实施扩张性货币政策，以刺激经济活动，降低通缩螺旋的风险，并支持金融体系。这些政策采取的形式是将利率固定在最低或接近最低水平，并采取非常规措施。最近经济环境的改善，以及各国央行明确表示愿意组织逐步取消非常规措施，引发了货币政策可能正常化的问题。然而，从现在到2014年，任何利率上调都被排除在外。事实上，通货膨胀的风险是不存在的，而且预期的增长过于温和，不会导致失业率的迅速下降。但美联储(fed)和英格兰银行(bank of england)已经将加息作为失业率目标的条件。这一利率沟通政策(前瞻性指导)旨在巩固利率预期，从而为增长提供支持。这一战略伴随着一系列更量化的非常规措施，如证券购买计划或银行系统的特殊再融资操作。货币政策操作的正常化需要逐步取消这些非常规措施。但本•伯南克(Ben Bernanke)宣布，美联储(federal Reserve)可能逐渐放慢购买股票的步伐，这引发了市场波动和长期利率的快速上升。因此，各国央行必须非常谨慎，避免过于仓促地实现货币政策正常化。这一点尤其正确，因为与这些措施相关的风险(新泡沫的发展、中央银行的独立性或通胀风险)目前似乎不是工业化国家的主要威胁(…)。
{"title":"Politiques monétaires: est-ce le début de la fin ?","authors":"C. Antonin, Christophe Blot, P. Hubert, Fabien Labondance, C. Mathieu, Christine Rifflart, V. Touzé","doi":"10.3917/REOF.130.0223","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/REOF.130.0223","url":null,"abstract":"Depuis 2009, les principales banques centrales mettent en oeuvre des politiques monetaires expansionnistes afin de stimuler l'activite economique, reduire les risques de spirale deflationniste et soutenir le systeme financier. Ces politiques se sont traduites par des taux d'interet fixes a leur plus bas niveau ou presque et par des mesures non conventionnelles. L'amelioration recente du climat conjoncturel et la volonte affichee des banques centrales d'organiser le retrait progressif des mesures non conventionnelles posent la question d'une eventuelle normalisation des politiques monetaires. Pour autant, toute hausse des taux d'interet d'ici 2014 est exclue. En effet, le risque inflationniste est inexistant et la croissance anticipee trop moderee pour entrainer une baisse rapide du taux de chomage. Or, la Reserve federale et la Banque d'Angleterre ont conditionne un relevement du taux d'interet a une cible de taux de chomage. Cette politique de communication (forward guidance ou orientation prospective) relative aux taux d'interet a pour objectif d'ancrer les anticipations de taux et de fournir par ce biais un soutien a la croissance. Cette strategie accompagne l'ensemble des mesures non conventionnelles de nature plus quantitatives telles que les programmes d'achat de titre ou les operations exceptionnelles de refinancement du systeme bancaire. La normalisation des operations de politique monetaire passe par un retrait progressif de ces mesures non conventionnelles. Mais l'annonce de Ben Bernanke d'un eventuel ralentissement progressif du rythme des achats de titres par la Reserve federale a provoque de la volatilite sur les marches et une augmentation rapide des taux a long terme. Des lors, les banques centrales doivent faire preuve d'une grande prudence afin d'eviter une normalisation trop hâtive des politiques monetaires. Ceci d'autant plus que les risques associes a ces mesures (developpement de nouvelles bulles, independance des banques centrales ou risques inflationnistes) ne paraissent pas etre aujourd'hui la principale menace dans les pays industrialises (...).","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-10-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132279334","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Nicolas Lepage-Saucier, J. Schleich, Étienne Wasmer
Bien que peu prise des syndicats de salaries et des representants patronaux, le contrat unique reste paradoxalement au coeur du debat public. Si le contrat unique semble a premiere vue etre une reponse seduisante pour reduire le dualisme, il ne regle pas pour autant les problemes lies a la precarite et a l’impact de la protection de l’emploi ; ceuxci peuvent etre traites par des politiques alternatives ciblees plus efficaces. De plus, bien que reels, les couts du dualisme sont moins evidents et moins bien demontres que ceux engendres par la protection de l’emploi. Enfin, la suppression des CDD entrainerait, a protection inchangee, une perte d’emploi importante car tous ces emplois ne seraient pas remplaces par des CDI compte tenu de la prudence a l’embauche des entreprises. Un assouplissement fort de la protection de l’emploi prevue dans ce nouveau contrat unique serait alors necessaire, mais il peut d’ores et deja intervenir dans les cadres legaux actuels et n’a pas a etre lie a un nouveau contrat : des contreparties en termes d’assurance chomage ou de formation professionnelle sont possibles.
{"title":"Le contrat de travail unique: quid pro quo ou simple quiproquo ?","authors":"Nicolas Lepage-Saucier, J. Schleich, Étienne Wasmer","doi":"10.3917/RCE.013.0263","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3917/RCE.013.0263","url":null,"abstract":"Bien que peu prise des syndicats de salaries et des representants patronaux, le contrat unique reste paradoxalement au coeur du debat public. Si le contrat unique semble a premiere vue etre une reponse seduisante pour reduire le dualisme, il ne regle pas pour autant les problemes lies a la precarite et a l’impact de la protection de l’emploi ; ceuxci peuvent etre traites par des politiques alternatives ciblees plus efficaces. De plus, bien que reels, les couts du dualisme sont moins evidents et moins bien demontres que ceux engendres par la protection de l’emploi. Enfin, la suppression des CDD entrainerait, a protection inchangee, une perte d’emploi importante car tous ces emplois ne seraient pas remplaces par des CDI compte tenu de la prudence a l’embauche des entreprises. Un assouplissement fort de la protection de l’emploi prevue dans ce nouveau contrat unique serait alors necessaire, mais il peut d’ores et deja intervenir dans les cadres legaux actuels et n’a pas a etre lie a un nouveau contrat : des contreparties en termes d’assurance chomage ou de formation professionnelle sont possibles.","PeriodicalId":325508,"journal":{"name":"Sciences Po publications","volume":"43 1 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2013-09-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116505691","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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