Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2149077
Mohammad Eslami
ABSTRACT The Ukraine war has brought into sharper prominence the importance of drones in modern conflicts. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, which, contrary to Russia’s expectations, was neither short nor effortless. Relying on Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV), Ukraine managed to repel many attacks and even destroy Russian armaments in the initial stages of the war. Russia has revealed a certain weakness in the field of unmanned technology, namely drones, and therefore, displaying the urgent need to enlarge its UCAVs fleet increasingly indispensable to Russia’s military operations. In the summer of 2022, Iran transferred hundreds of military drones to Russia in an attempt to ameliorate its lackluster drone capability. The present paper, while describing the role of combat drones in the Ukraine war, elucidates how Iranian UCAVs have been influencing the dynamics of the war in Ukraine.
{"title":"Iran’s Drone Supply to Russia and Changing Dynamics of the Ukraine War","authors":"Mohammad Eslami","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2149077","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2149077","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The Ukraine war has brought into sharper prominence the importance of drones in modern conflicts. In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, which, contrary to Russia’s expectations, was neither short nor effortless. Relying on Unmanned Combat Aerial Vehicles (UCAV), Ukraine managed to repel many attacks and even destroy Russian armaments in the initial stages of the war. Russia has revealed a certain weakness in the field of unmanned technology, namely drones, and therefore, displaying the urgent need to enlarge its UCAVs fleet increasingly indispensable to Russia’s military operations. In the summer of 2022, Iran transferred hundreds of military drones to Russia in an attempt to ameliorate its lackluster drone capability. The present paper, while describing the role of combat drones in the Ukraine war, elucidates how Iranian UCAVs have been influencing the dynamics of the war in Ukraine.","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44997905","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2158700
Jingdong Yuan
ABSTRACT This paper discusses both the external and domestic drivers of the nuclear trilemma in Southern Asia that involves China, India and Pakistan. It seeks to untangle the complexity of the dyad and the triangular nature of the relationships between the three countries and highlights major differences as well as similarities in the nuclear dynamics. It identifies and examines the internal dynamics of the China–India and India–Pakistan conflicts and explores how domestic drivers such as nationalism, public opinions, and civil–military relations either mitigate or exacerbate nuclear risks in a region marked by perennial disputes, emerging rivalry, and long-standing extra-regional interferences. Against these backgrounds, the paper addresses the central theme of the nuclear trilemma between China, India, and Pakistan by looking at causes of instability, risks of conflicts and escalation to nuclear use, and prospects of restraint and risk reduction, including the development and implementation of confidence-building measures and nuclear risk reduction mechanisms.
{"title":"External and Domestic Drivers of Nuclear Trilemma in Southern Asia: China, India, and Pakistan","authors":"Jingdong Yuan","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2158700","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2158700","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper discusses both the external and domestic drivers of the nuclear trilemma in Southern Asia that involves China, India and Pakistan. It seeks to untangle the complexity of the dyad and the triangular nature of the relationships between the three countries and highlights major differences as well as similarities in the nuclear dynamics. It identifies and examines the internal dynamics of the China–India and India–Pakistan conflicts and explores how domestic drivers such as nationalism, public opinions, and civil–military relations either mitigate or exacerbate nuclear risks in a region marked by perennial disputes, emerging rivalry, and long-standing extra-regional interferences. Against these backgrounds, the paper addresses the central theme of the nuclear trilemma between China, India, and Pakistan by looking at causes of instability, risks of conflicts and escalation to nuclear use, and prospects of restraint and risk reduction, including the development and implementation of confidence-building measures and nuclear risk reduction mechanisms.","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43282235","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2156252
Chunhao Lou
ABSTRACT The geopolitical situation in South Asia is witnessing entangled trends, which are reflected as chronic India-Pakistan confrontation, the frigid China-India relationship and the increasing US-China competition. China doesn’t want to be involved in the India-Pakistan confrontation, but it’s an undeniable fact that the China factor is shaping India-Pakistan interaction to some extent. Though the United States is an extra-regional power, it has a long history of being involved in regional affairs. Considering China, India and Pakistan all possess nuclear weapons, it’s extremely important to analyze the geopolitical trends and implications for the nuclear chain. This paper argues that the United States has been focusing on strategic competition against China, and the bilateral relationship will face fierce challenges before reaching new balance. The China-India relationship is becoming competitive and volatile, and the old framework of stabilizing bilateral relations is disintegrating. The conflicting ideology of nation-building, the extremely contradicted security perception, and the battle for geostrategic advantage in the region all contribute to India-Pakistan confrontation. Though nuclear weapons, functioning as a strategic deterrence tool, will curtail concerning parties from large-scale war, and China strongly advocates for a common and cooperative security concept, the geopolitical entanglement will have serious impact on the regional nuclear situation. This paper also gives recommendations for managing this interaction. All concerned parties should strive to overcome the security dilemma and maintain peace and stability in this region by strengthening confidence-building measures, conducting nuclear issue dialogues and improving crisis management mechanisms.
{"title":"Geopolitical “Entanglements” and the China-India-Pakistan Nuclear Trilemma","authors":"Chunhao Lou","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2156252","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2156252","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The geopolitical situation in South Asia is witnessing entangled trends, which are reflected as chronic India-Pakistan confrontation, the frigid China-India relationship and the increasing US-China competition. China doesn’t want to be involved in the India-Pakistan confrontation, but it’s an undeniable fact that the China factor is shaping India-Pakistan interaction to some extent. Though the United States is an extra-regional power, it has a long history of being involved in regional affairs. Considering China, India and Pakistan all possess nuclear weapons, it’s extremely important to analyze the geopolitical trends and implications for the nuclear chain. This paper argues that the United States has been focusing on strategic competition against China, and the bilateral relationship will face fierce challenges before reaching new balance. The China-India relationship is becoming competitive and volatile, and the old framework of stabilizing bilateral relations is disintegrating. The conflicting ideology of nation-building, the extremely contradicted security perception, and the battle for geostrategic advantage in the region all contribute to India-Pakistan confrontation. Though nuclear weapons, functioning as a strategic deterrence tool, will curtail concerning parties from large-scale war, and China strongly advocates for a common and cooperative security concept, the geopolitical entanglement will have serious impact on the regional nuclear situation. This paper also gives recommendations for managing this interaction. All concerned parties should strive to overcome the security dilemma and maintain peace and stability in this region by strengthening confidence-building measures, conducting nuclear issue dialogues and improving crisis management mechanisms.","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49617607","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2152953
R. Sood
ABSTRACT The beginning of the nuclear age coincided with the beginning of the Cold War. The politics of the bipolar world, with two nuclear hegemons enjoying nuclear superpower status, shaped the nuclear order. At one level, it would appear to be a success because it helped create and sustain a nuclear taboo that has lasted for 75 years. However, the world has changed. The notions of “nuclear parity” and “mutual vulnerability” that made it possible to reduce strategic stability to nuclear stability and created the enabling conditions for bilateral nuclear arms control have given way to asymmetry with nuclear multipolarity. This has led to the unravelling of the old arms control mechanisms and a concern that the nuclear taboo may be eroding. The United States and the USSR had no territorial disputes; instead, their rivalry played out in the form of proxy wars. Today, nuclear rivals are often neighbours. Their disputes relate to issues of national sovereignty. Further, nuclear dyads have given way to trilemmas and nuclear chains. Technological developments generate further challenges for arms control. More usable nuclear weapons, dual use systems, a renewed offence-defence spiral with missile defences and hypersonics, and growing offensive cyber and space capabilities that make for nuclear entanglement demand a fresh look at arms control and nuclear stability. In the China-India-Pakistan trilemma, proposals have to take cognisance of the new political realities to break out of the cycle of mistrust and reduce risks of both misperceptions and miscalculation that could lead to inadvertent escalation.
{"title":"Managing the China, India and Pakistan Nuclear Trilemma: Ensuring Nuclear Stability in the New Nuclear Age","authors":"R. Sood","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2152953","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2152953","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The beginning of the nuclear age coincided with the beginning of the Cold War. The politics of the bipolar world, with two nuclear hegemons enjoying nuclear superpower status, shaped the nuclear order. At one level, it would appear to be a success because it helped create and sustain a nuclear taboo that has lasted for 75 years. However, the world has changed. The notions of “nuclear parity” and “mutual vulnerability” that made it possible to reduce strategic stability to nuclear stability and created the enabling conditions for bilateral nuclear arms control have given way to asymmetry with nuclear multipolarity. This has led to the unravelling of the old arms control mechanisms and a concern that the nuclear taboo may be eroding. The United States and the USSR had no territorial disputes; instead, their rivalry played out in the form of proxy wars. Today, nuclear rivals are often neighbours. Their disputes relate to issues of national sovereignty. Further, nuclear dyads have given way to trilemmas and nuclear chains. Technological developments generate further challenges for arms control. More usable nuclear weapons, dual use systems, a renewed offence-defence spiral with missile defences and hypersonics, and growing offensive cyber and space capabilities that make for nuclear entanglement demand a fresh look at arms control and nuclear stability. In the China-India-Pakistan trilemma, proposals have to take cognisance of the new political realities to break out of the cycle of mistrust and reduce risks of both misperceptions and miscalculation that could lead to inadvertent escalation.","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43484899","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2133336
Sara Al-Sayed
ABSTRACT The last couple of decades have seen a surge in non-state actors wielding increasingly accessible information and communication technologies to provide intelligence to relevant publics and governments on a range of issues, including on nuclear activities of concern. This has prompted the impression that more transparency would translate almost surely to a world secure from nuclear danger arising from treaty-violating nuclear proliferation or nuclear arsenal expansion. As a matter of fact, the idea of involving civil society in treaty verification – or “societal verification” – hails from the post-WWII scientists’ peace movement. In this commentary, it is argued that some of today’s prominent instances of societal verification deviate significantly in spirit from initiatives suggested by the original conception. Today’s efforts have lent themselves to co-optation by states in the service of US and Western hegemonic interests and do little to curb nuclear danger. Indeed, they conform to a depoliticized conception of societal verification. This commentary sketches the evolution of the theory and practice of societal verification and calls for the launch of a community conversation to rethink societal verification in such a way as to avoid the further entrenchment of the status quo.
{"title":"Revisiting Societal Verification for Nuclear Non-proliferation and Arms Control: The Search for Transparency","authors":"Sara Al-Sayed","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2133336","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2133336","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The last couple of decades have seen a surge in non-state actors wielding increasingly accessible information and communication technologies to provide intelligence to relevant publics and governments on a range of issues, including on nuclear activities of concern. This has prompted the impression that more transparency would translate almost surely to a world secure from nuclear danger arising from treaty-violating nuclear proliferation or nuclear arsenal expansion. As a matter of fact, the idea of involving civil society in treaty verification – or “societal verification” – hails from the post-WWII scientists’ peace movement. In this commentary, it is argued that some of today’s prominent instances of societal verification deviate significantly in spirit from initiatives suggested by the original conception. Today’s efforts have lent themselves to co-optation by states in the service of US and Western hegemonic interests and do little to curb nuclear danger. Indeed, they conform to a depoliticized conception of societal verification. This commentary sketches the evolution of the theory and practice of societal verification and calls for the launch of a community conversation to rethink societal verification in such a way as to avoid the further entrenchment of the status quo.","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47096394","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2133338
P. Ganeshpandian
{"title":"Seeking the Bomb: Strategies of Nuclear Proliferation","authors":"P. Ganeshpandian","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2133338","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2133338","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41633051","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2158705
Sadia Tasleem
ABSTRACT Foreign policy is an extension of domestic politics in myriad ways. However, no meta-theory offers a framework of analysis that could explain the nexus between domestic politics and foreign policy within the bilateral relations of three politically and culturally distinct states i.e. India, Pakistan, and China. In this paper, I explore the nexus between domestic politics and foreign policy to explain what do the contemporary domestic political trends in each state indicate about the future of bilateral relations. For this purpose, I first identify what in my view is the most relevant and important domestic political driver of bilateral relations in each case. I then discuss how it affects the bilateral relations in the respective dyads and what that means for the future of bilateral relations between India – Pakistan, Pakistan – China and China – India. I argue that the situations in which a small elite dominates both the discursive trends and policy making may result in malleable notions of national identity. This provides the elite, flexibility in shaping and reorienting foreign policy (when they want). On the other hand, the situations in which foreign policy is contingent upon national identity conception as articulated by the mainstream political parties with a strong support base among the masses are highly susceptible to the electoral pressures, shrinking the space for major shifts.
{"title":"Internal Drivers – The Nexus between Domestic Politics and Bilateral Relations: Exploring India-Pakistan, Pakistan-China, and China-India Dynamics","authors":"Sadia Tasleem","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2158705","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2158705","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Foreign policy is an extension of domestic politics in myriad ways. However, no meta-theory offers a framework of analysis that could explain the nexus between domestic politics and foreign policy within the bilateral relations of three politically and culturally distinct states i.e. India, Pakistan, and China. In this paper, I explore the nexus between domestic politics and foreign policy to explain what do the contemporary domestic political trends in each state indicate about the future of bilateral relations. For this purpose, I first identify what in my view is the most relevant and important domestic political driver of bilateral relations in each case. I then discuss how it affects the bilateral relations in the respective dyads and what that means for the future of bilateral relations between India – Pakistan, Pakistan – China and China – India. I argue that the situations in which a small elite dominates both the discursive trends and policy making may result in malleable notions of national identity. This provides the elite, flexibility in shaping and reorienting foreign policy (when they want). On the other hand, the situations in which foreign policy is contingent upon national identity conception as articulated by the mainstream political parties with a strong support base among the masses are highly susceptible to the electoral pressures, shrinking the space for major shifts.","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44480120","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2134726
P. Menon
ABSTRACT The perspective of the paper is the geopolitical contestation between China–India–Pakistan, which frames the contours of the nuclear trilemma that is nested in the broader global nuclear weapons framework. Territorial disputes harbor the potential for conflict under the nuclear overhang between China–India and India–Pakistan. The two dyads are structurally separate but are also connected. Beliefs systems that shape nuclear doctrine have commonality in the China–India dyad. But such is not the case in the India-Pakistan dyad. There is, however, political recognition of the dangers that inhabit the unexplored space of conventional war under the nuclear over hang. The greater danger of nuclear war in both dyads is concealed in the inability to control escalation of conflicts that may have small beginnings but can potentially spin out of control. The paper uses Clausewitz escalation model to highlight this crucial issue. The policy prescriptions are therefore directed on never testing the boundaries of the nuclear threshold and relate to reduction of alert levels. A Global No First Use Treaty is proposed and one that is possible only if the dangers of nuclear war are publicized at the global level thus forcing the hand of political leaders. This is an imperative step to free the leadership from the shackles of varied impractical nuclear strategies that are unable to answer the question – what happens after the first nuclear weapon is fired.
{"title":"The China–India–Pakistan Nuclear Trilemma and Accidental War","authors":"P. Menon","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2134726","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2134726","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT The perspective of the paper is the geopolitical contestation between China–India–Pakistan, which frames the contours of the nuclear trilemma that is nested in the broader global nuclear weapons framework. Territorial disputes harbor the potential for conflict under the nuclear overhang between China–India and India–Pakistan. The two dyads are structurally separate but are also connected. Beliefs systems that shape nuclear doctrine have commonality in the China–India dyad. But such is not the case in the India-Pakistan dyad. There is, however, political recognition of the dangers that inhabit the unexplored space of conventional war under the nuclear over hang. The greater danger of nuclear war in both dyads is concealed in the inability to control escalation of conflicts that may have small beginnings but can potentially spin out of control. The paper uses Clausewitz escalation model to highlight this crucial issue. The policy prescriptions are therefore directed on never testing the boundaries of the nuclear threshold and relate to reduction of alert levels. A Global No First Use Treaty is proposed and one that is possible only if the dangers of nuclear war are publicized at the global level thus forcing the hand of political leaders. This is an imperative step to free the leadership from the shackles of varied impractical nuclear strategies that are unable to answer the question – what happens after the first nuclear weapon is fired.","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44593962","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2133335
Qiyang Niu, Haeyoon Kim, Zhaniya Mukatay
ABSTRACT At the 25th anniversary of the opening for signature of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), this paper seizes the opportunity of a self-imposed nuclear test moratorium by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), analyzes Kazakhstan’s experience in dismantling its nuclear test site, and proposes three policy recommendations as potential solutions to stir the DPRK to join the CTBT: First, the international community should count DPRK’s potential signing of the CTBT as a reason to consider relaxing sanctions against DPRK in the future; second, the international community should encourage the DPRK to vote in favor of UNGA resolutions on the CTBT as a first step forward towards the final signing; third, the international community and the CTBTO Preparatory Commission (CTBTO) should consider inviting the DPRK for CTBTO training and workshops to build trust. Together, these actions could not only push forward the CTBT with its coming into force but also melt the current stalemate of engaging with the DPRK positively.
{"title":"DPRK and the CTBT: What Could Come Next after the Moratorium?","authors":"Qiyang Niu, Haeyoon Kim, Zhaniya Mukatay","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2133335","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2133335","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT At the 25th anniversary of the opening for signature of the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT), this paper seizes the opportunity of a self-imposed nuclear test moratorium by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK), analyzes Kazakhstan’s experience in dismantling its nuclear test site, and proposes three policy recommendations as potential solutions to stir the DPRK to join the CTBT: First, the international community should count DPRK’s potential signing of the CTBT as a reason to consider relaxing sanctions against DPRK in the future; second, the international community should encourage the DPRK to vote in favor of UNGA resolutions on the CTBT as a first step forward towards the final signing; third, the international community and the CTBTO Preparatory Commission (CTBTO) should consider inviting the DPRK for CTBTO training and workshops to build trust. Together, these actions could not only push forward the CTBT with its coming into force but also melt the current stalemate of engaging with the DPRK positively.","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42509569","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-07-03DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2102286
James Johnson
ABSTRACT Will emerging technology increase the possibility of nuclear war? Given the multitude of ways emerging technology intersects with nuclear weapons, critical thinking about an imagined future that goes beyond net assessment, myopic mirror-imaging, and extrapolation of present trends should be a core task of policymakers. This article builds on the notion of “future counterfactuals” to construct imaginative yet realistic scenarios to consider the future possibility of a nuclear exchange. It highlights the critical role counterfactual scenarios can play in challenging conventional wisdom about nuclear weapons, risk analysis, war-fighting, and linear thinking. In emphasizing the role of uncertainty, cognitive bias, and fundamental uncertainty in world politics, the article also contributes to the literature about the risk of inadvertent and accidental nuclear war.
{"title":"Counterfactual thinking & nuclear risk in the digital age: The role of uncertainty, complexity, chance, and human psychology","authors":"James Johnson","doi":"10.1080/25751654.2022.2102286","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/25751654.2022.2102286","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Will emerging technology increase the possibility of nuclear war? Given the multitude of ways emerging technology intersects with nuclear weapons, critical thinking about an imagined future that goes beyond net assessment, myopic mirror-imaging, and extrapolation of present trends should be a core task of policymakers. This article builds on the notion of “future counterfactuals” to construct imaginative yet realistic scenarios to consider the future possibility of a nuclear exchange. It highlights the critical role counterfactual scenarios can play in challenging conventional wisdom about nuclear weapons, risk analysis, war-fighting, and linear thinking. In emphasizing the role of uncertainty, cognitive bias, and fundamental uncertainty in world politics, the article also contributes to the literature about the risk of inadvertent and accidental nuclear war.","PeriodicalId":32607,"journal":{"name":"Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.7,"publicationDate":"2022-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41555480","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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