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Missing in Action: Missiles Control in the Middle East 行动中的失踪:中东的导弹控制
IF 0.7 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2090797
Hassan Elbahtimy
ABSTRACT Advanced ballistic and cruise missiles have become a salient feature of the Middle Eastern security landscape. More states are either developing indigenous production capabilities or importing these missiles than ever before and their use has also become a frequent occurrence in regional conflicts. Despite that the issue remains one of the least examined aspects of regional arms control. This research article surveys the historical and contemporary missiles landscape in the Middle East and the evolution of regional debates aimed at arms control. It demonstrates the disconnect between a regional arms dynamic marked by competitiveness and a fragmented and underdeveloped ideational and normative arms control framework. The article identifies some of the challenges in addressing missiles control in the region and proposes a taxonomy of modalities for addressing missiles control including cross-cutting themes that can frame the substance and content of regional missiles control.
摘要:先进的弹道导弹和巡航导弹已成为中东安全格局的一个突出特点。比以往任何时候都更多的国家正在发展本土生产能力或进口这些导弹,在地区冲突中使用这些导弹也已成为一种常见现象。尽管如此,这个问题仍然是区域军备控制中审查最少的方面之一。这篇研究文章调查了中东的历史和当代导弹形势,以及旨在军备控制的区域辩论的演变。它表明了以竞争力为标志的区域军备动态与支离破碎、思想和规范性军备控制框架之间的脱节。这篇文章确定了该地区应对导弹控制的一些挑战,并提出了应对导弹控制模式的分类,包括可以界定区域导弹控制的实质和内容的交叉主题。
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引用次数: 0
Chemical and Biological Weapons in Regional Disarmament in the Middle East and North Africa 中东和北非区域裁军中的化学和生物武器
IF 0.7 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2092368
J. Zanders
ABSTRACT In November 2019, a new series of annual one-week meetings began to eliminate non-conventional arms – essentially nuclear weapons, and to a lesser extent chemical and biological weapons (CBW) – from the arsenals in the Middle East. It followed the acceptance of Egypt’s proposal for a new conference by the First Committee of the UN General Assembly on 22 December 2018. The new Conference derives its mandate from the Resolution on the Middle East, adopted at the 1995 Review Conference of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Besides expanding the original idea of a Nuclear Weapon-Free Zone (NWFZ) to one that would also cover CBW, it also requires the regional disarmament initiative to be verifiable. This enlarged scope for regional disarmament in the Middle East presents significant challenges for the negotiating parties. While the NWFZ primarily addressed security relationships with Israel, chemical weapons and their past and present use in the Middle East affect other regional fault lines. This article traces how CBW were inserted into the objective of a NWFZ for the Middle East. It then discusses the legal regimes governing CBW, their status in the region and implications for a regional zone exempt from non-conventional weaponry. The demand for effective verification poses multiple challenges because of the processes in the CBW disarmament treaties. The paper finally discusses steps the Conference could consider for building trust and confidence while negotiating the regional treaty framework.
2019年11月,一系列为期一周的年度会议开始从中东武器库中消除非常规武器——主要是核武器,以及较小程度上的化学和生物武器(CBW)。在此之前,联合国大会第一委员会于2018年12月22日接受了埃及关于召开新会议的提议。新会议的任务来源于1995年《核不扩散条约》审查会议通过的关于中东问题的决议。除了将无核武器区(NWFZ)的最初构想扩大到包括生化武器之外,它还要求区域裁军倡议是可核查的。中东区域裁军范围的扩大对谈判各方提出了重大挑战。无核区主要处理与以色列的安全关系,化学武器及其过去和现在在中东的使用影响到其他区域断层线。本文追溯了生化武器是如何被纳入中东无核武器区的目标的。然后讨论了管理生化武器的法律制度、它们在该地区的地位以及对区域非常规武器豁免区的影响。由于裁减化学武器条约的进程,对有效核查的要求提出了多重挑战。文件最后讨论了会议在谈判区域条约框架时可以考虑的建立信任和信心的步骤。
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引用次数: 0
Setting the Deadline for Nuclear Weapon Removal from Host States under the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons 根据《禁止核武器条约》确定从东道国撤出核武器的最后期限
IF 0.7 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2046405
M. Kütt, Z. Mian
ABSTRACT The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons requires that states which join the treaty while hosting nuclear weapons, “shall ensure the prompt removal of such weapons, as soon as possible but not later than a deadline to be determined by the first meeting of States Parties”. This article offers a basis for setting the weapon removal deadline under the new treaty. It describes briefly the experience of past removals of nuclear weapons from deployment in Cuba, East Germany, Taiwan, Hungary, South Korea, and Greece. It then outlines a plausible process of nuclear weapon removal from the current five nuclear weapon host countries, all holding nuclear weapons belonging to the United States, that reflects existing US nuclear weapon transport practices and capabilities. The analysis suggests the parties to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons could set a 90 day deadline for the safe and secure removal of nuclear weapons from host states.
《禁止核武器条约》要求加入该条约但同时拥有核武器的国家“应确保尽快但不迟于缔约国第一次会议确定的最后期限清除此类武器”。这一条款为在新条约下设定销毁武器的最后期限提供了依据。它简要描述了过去在古巴、东德、台湾、匈牙利、韩国和希腊拆除部署的核武器的经验。然后,它概述了一个从目前五个拥有核武器的国家移除核武器的合理过程,这些国家都拥有属于美国的核武器,这反映了美国现有的核武器运输实践和能力。分析表明,《禁止核武器条约》缔约国可以设定90天的最后期限,以安全可靠地将核武器从东道国移走。
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引用次数: 1
Towards an Achievable WMDFZ Treaty for the Middle East: Insights from Civil Society 实现WMDFZ中东条约:来自民间社会的见解
IF 0.7 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2092369
Sharon Dolev, Leonardo Bandarra
ABSTRACT Establishing a Weapons-of-Mass-Destruction-Free-Zone (WMDFZ) in the Middle East is a decades-old ambition. The idea of establishing “The Zone” has been regularly re-addressed at the United Nations and in forums like the NPT Review Conferences. This article contributes to that process by exploring possible pathways to a working and sustainable treaty crafted for the region. We argue that such a treaty could be achievable through a binding legal umbrella document that would cover all points defined by states in previous resolutions. We analyse some elements for such a treaty by highlighting core elements that negotiations should face in their discussions. For that, we build on a series of discussions and round tables previously held by the Middle East Treaty Organization (METO), a civil society organisation, with diplomats and experts, since 2014. The civil society track offered valuable contributions to an inclusive process, as well as a relevant case study for future research on how civil society can contribute to non-proliferation and disarmament negotiations.
在中东建立无大规模杀伤性武器区(WMDFZ)是几十年来的夙愿。建立“无核区”的想法已在联合国和不扩散条约审查会议等论坛上定期重新讨论。本文通过探讨为该地区制定一项有效和可持续条约的可能途径,为这一进程作出贡献。我们认为,这样一项条约可以通过一项具有约束力的法律总括性文件来实现,该文件将涵盖各国在以前的决议中确定的所有要点。我们通过强调谈判在讨论中应该面对的核心要素来分析这样一项条约的一些要素。为此,我们以民间社会组织中东条约组织(METO)自2014年以来与外交官和专家举行的一系列讨论和圆桌会议为基础。民间社会轨道为包容性进程提供了宝贵的贡献,也为今后研究民间社会如何促进不扩散和裁军谈判提供了相关的案例研究。
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引用次数: 0
TPNW, the Caribbean and the Disarmament Politics of Small Island States TPNW、加勒比和小岛屿国家裁军政治
IF 0.7 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2088980
Shorna-Kay Richards
ABSTRACT The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW) is a historic achievement of many years of sustained advocacy and diplomacy by a deft coalition of governments, intergovernmental organizations and civil society. This was done against all odds and in the face of staunch opposition from nuclear weapon states and their allies. The TPNW’s adoption is viewed in some quarters as a revolt or uprising by a majority of nations in the realm of disarmament politics. This majority included the small island states of the English-speaking Caribbean Community (CARICOM) who, despite the constraints of size and its concomitant challenges, were outspoken and active players throughout the TPNW’s negotiating process. These small island states exerted influence beyond their size in helping to deconstruct and reframe the discourse on disarmament politics to reclaim and advance the international agenda to prohibit and stigmatize nuclear weapons. Their participation, empowered by the humanitarian initiative on nuclear weapons, demonstrates that resolute leadership, transparency and inclusive participation are the key determinants of a new pathway to achieve progress on nuclear disarmament. This commentary examines the contribution of the CARICOM small island states, as part of the wider Latin America and Caribbean group, in challenging the status quo in disarmament politics towards the adoption of the TPNW.
摘要《禁止核武器条约》是各国政府、政府间组织和民间社会多年来持续倡导和外交的历史性成就。这是在核武器国家及其盟友的坚决反对下,克服重重困难做出的。在某些方面,TPNW的通过被视为大多数国家在裁军政治领域的反抗或起义。这一多数包括英语加勒比共同体(加共体)的小岛屿国家,这些国家尽管受到规模限制及其随之而来的挑战,但在整个太平洋太平洋岛国网络的谈判过程中都是直言不讳和积极的参与者。这些小岛屿国家发挥了超出其规模的影响力,帮助解构和重塑关于裁军政治的讨论,以收回和推进禁止和污蔑核武器的国际议程。在核武器人道主义倡议的授权下,他们的参与表明,坚定的领导、透明度和包容性的参与是在核裁军方面取得进展的新途径的关键决定因素。本评论审查了加共体小岛屿国家作为更广泛的拉丁美洲和加勒比集团的一部分,在挑战裁军政治现状以通过《全面禁核武器条约》方面所作的贡献。
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引用次数: 1
Winning and Losing the Nuclear Peace: The Rise, Demise and Revival of Arms Control 核和平的得失:军备控制的兴起、消亡与复兴
IF 0.7 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2058249
S. Squassoni
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引用次数: 0
The Security of Nuclear Weapon-Free Zones: The Middle East as a Test Case for Unconditional Security Assurances 无核武器区的安全:中东作为无条件安全保证的试验案例
IF 0.7 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2090097
T. Cronberg
ABSTRACT A just nuclear order based on voluntary abstinence by states and the promotion of nuclear weapon-free zones would require more credible negative security assurances than provided by the current non-proliferation regime. The question here is: how to create the necessary conditions for such a change? The negative security assurances issued to the non-nuclear states in general and to the existing regional nuclear weapon-free zones in particular are reviewed. These are analysed in relation to their conditionality and ambiguity in order to understand the security provided. On this basis, possible options to achieve unconditional, legally based security assurances collectively for all the zone states are presented. These assurances could potentially be a tool to increase the number of non-nuclear states and nuclear weapon-free zones, especially in cases where there are one or several nuclear weapon states. Currently, the most acute example is the one in the Middle East. The lack of progress in this case will haunt the NPT review conferences and deepen the crisis until some positive steps take place. In case unconditional, legal security assurances are agreed to, these could provide an interim first phase for the WMD-free zone in the Middle East and allow for some of the disagreements among the participants to at least be discussed. The model here would be the transformation of the hostile relations between Brazil and Argentina initiated by the Treaty of Tlatelolco.
摘要建立在各国自愿禁欲和促进无核武器区基础上的公正核秩序,需要比现行不扩散制度提供更可信的消极安全保证。这里的问题是:如何为这种变化创造必要的条件?审查了对一般无核国家,特别是对现有区域无核武器区作出的消极安全保证。为了理解所提供的担保,对这些担保的条件和模糊性进行了分析。在此基础上,提出了为所有区域国家集体实现无条件、基于法律的安全保证的可能选择。这些保证可能成为增加无核国家和无核武器区数量的工具,特别是在有一个或几个核武器国家的情况下。目前,最突出的例子是中东的例子。在这种情况下缺乏进展将困扰《不扩散条约》审议大会,并加深危机,直到采取一些积极步骤。如果同意无条件的法律安全保证,这些保证可以为中东无大规模毁灭性武器区提供临时的第一阶段,并允许至少讨论参与者之间的一些分歧。这里的模式将是《特拉特洛尔科条约》所倡导的巴西和阿根廷之间敌对关系的转变。
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引用次数: 0
Nuclear Non-Proliferation and Disarmament in the Middle East 中东的核不扩散与裁军
IF 0.7 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2078140
N. Fahmy
ABSTRACT Nuclear non-proliferation and disarmament in the Middle East are a sine qua non for security and stability in the region. Addressing them is of paramount importance and urgency if further breakouts are to be prevented. This has to be done in a comprehensive manner without prejudice or preference. The renewed JCPOA negotiations should be a stepping stone in the direction of establishing a Nuclear Weapon Free Middle East. The said zone is a fundamental component of a new Middle East security architecture based on two essential pillars: disarmament and conflict resolution based on international law.
摘要中东的核不扩散和核裁军是该地区安全与稳定的必要条件。如果要防止进一步的爆发,解决这些问题至关重要,也是当务之急。这必须以全面的方式进行,不带偏见或偏好。重启的《联合全面行动计划》谈判应该成为建立中东无核武器区的垫脚石。上述区域是建立在两个重要支柱基础上的新中东安全架构的基本组成部分:裁军和基于国际法的冲突解决。
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引用次数: 0
Introduction: The Path Forward to a WMD Free Zone in the Middle East 导言:中东无大规模杀伤性武器区的前进道路
IF 0.7 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2022-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2022.2094699
Emad Kiyaei
ABSTRACT The idea of a weapons of mass destruction-free zone (hereafter WMDFZ, or simply “zone”) in the Middle East is decades old and was first proposed by Egypt in 1990 with support from Iran. Such a zone aims to eradicate chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons from all 22 Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa, as well as Iran and Israel. Realizing a WMDFZ in the Middle East is paramount for a region reeling from decades of instability, insecurity and WMD proliferation. The scope of the zone should not be limited to ridding the region of these destructive weapons; it should also include the creation of a closer political climate in which it can be achieved, requiring a rare occurrence of collective cooperation in a divided region. This process will require a complete reversal of the current animosity and misunderstanding among regional countries that has decapitated the drive toward improved security and socioeconomic and political advancement in the region. Therefore, the WMDFZ will not only contribute to strengthening nonproliferation efforts, it will inevitably open the discussion to other security-related challenges facing the region. This special feature of the zone includes contributions from diverse voices from within the region and beyond. Activists, practitioners, policymakers and current and former senior diplomats and officials provide insight into the history, prospects, challenges, and possible avenues to achieve this decades-old goal of a WMDFZ.
在中东建立无大规模杀伤性武器区(以下简称WMDFZ,或简称“区”)的想法已有几十年历史,1990年由埃及在伊朗的支持下首次提出。该区域的目标是根除中东和北非所有22个阿拉伯国家以及伊朗和以色列的化学、生物和核武器。在中东实现大规模杀伤性武器禁飞区对中东这个经历了数十年不稳定、不安全和大规模杀伤性武器扩散的地区至关重要。该区域的范围不应限于消除该区域的这些毁灭性武器;它还应包括创造一种能够实现这一目标的更紧密的政治气氛,要求在一个分裂的地区罕见地进行集体合作。这一进程将需要彻底扭转目前地区国家之间的敌意和误解,这种敌意和误解已经扼杀了改善该地区安全以及社会经济和政治进步的动力。因此,大规模杀伤性武器禁飞区不仅有助于加强防扩散努力,而且不可避免地将开启对该地区面临的其他与安全有关的挑战的讨论。自贸区的这一特色包括来自区域内外不同声音的贡献。活动人士、实践者、政策制定者以及现任和前任高级外交官和官员对实现这一几十年目标的历史、前景、挑战和可能途径提供了深刻见解。
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引用次数: 0
An Introduction to the Special Feature on the Biden Nuclear Posture Review 拜登核态势评估专题介绍
IF 0.7 Q4 INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS Pub Date : 2021-12-16 DOI: 10.1080/25751654.2021.2015918
Nobuyasu Abe
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引用次数: 0
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Journal for Peace and Nuclear Disarmament
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