Pub Date : 2011-12-01DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2011.33.4.49
K. Lee
Lee, Kye Woo.2011.공적개발원조 배분정책과 실적(Aid allocation policies and practice),Articles,[서울]한국개발연구원,35
lee, kye woo。2011。政府开发援助分配政策与业绩(Aid allocation policies and practice)，Articles，[首尔]韩国开发研究院，35
{"title":"Aid Allocation Policies and Practice: DAC Members and Korea","authors":"K. Lee","doi":"10.23895/KDIJEP.2011.33.4.49","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/KDIJEP.2011.33.4.49","url":null,"abstract":"Lee, Kye Woo.2011.공적개발원조 배분정책과 실적(Aid allocation policies and practice),Articles,[서울]한국개발연구원,35","PeriodicalId":32627,"journal":{"name":"KDI Journal of Economic Policy","volume":"33 1","pages":"49-83"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68934779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2011-09-01DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2011.33.3.57
황수경
본 연구는 저출산 고령화의 진전과 여성 경제활동참여 증대 등에 따른 가구구조 변화가 가계생산에 영향을 주어 서비스 수요를 변화시키는 효과를 분석한다. 특히 기존에 가계생산에 의존하던 가사노동 및 돌봄서비스 등을 시장서비스로 대체하는 과정에서 추가적인 서비스 수요가 발생할 수 있음을 이론적 실증적으로 분석...
{"title":"The Effects of Changes in Household Structure on Service Consumption in Korea","authors":"황수경","doi":"10.23895/KDIJEP.2011.33.3.57","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/KDIJEP.2011.33.3.57","url":null,"abstract":"본 연구는 저출산 고령화의 진전과 여성 경제활동참여 증대 등에 따른 가구구조 변화가 가계생산에 영향을 주어 서비스 수요를 변화시키는 효과를 분석한다. 특히 기존에 가계생산에 의존하던 가사노동 및 돌봄서비스 등을 시장서비스로 대체하는 과정에서 추가적인 서비스 수요가 발생할 수 있음을 이론적 실증적으로 분석...","PeriodicalId":32627,"journal":{"name":"KDI Journal of Economic Policy","volume":"33 1","pages":"57-85"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68934695","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2011-06-30DOI: 10.23895/kdijep.2011.33.2.111
Hanwook Yoo
Korean Abstract: 고용창출효과를 제고하기 위해서 노동수요 측면의 임금보조를 현행 세액공제방식에서 사회보험료감면 방식으로 대체해야 한다는 주장이 지속적으로 제기되고 있는 상황에서, 본 연구는 이론분석을 통해 이러한 주장의 타당성을 과학적으로 검증하기 위해 수행되었다. 분석 결과, 사회보험료감면 방식의 우월 여부는 사회보험 사각지대 존재 여부에 따라 다르게 나타나는데, 사각지대가 존재하지 않는 경우사회보험료감면 방식이 고용창출 측면에서 세액공제 방식보다 우월하나, 사각지대가 존재하는 경우에는 사회보험료감면 방식의 우월성이 보장될 수 없다. 따라서 사회보험료감면 방식의 우월성을 구현하기 위해서는 사회보험 사각지대를 최소화함으로써 모든 기업이 임금보조 혜택을 받을 수 있는 토대를 마련하는 것이 긴요하다. 또한 기업별 고용여건(임금수준, 고용반응도 등)을 고려하여 감면비율을 차등적용 함으로써 고용창출효과 극대화를 도모할 필요가 있다.English Abstract: As the ‘jobless growth’ is developing into a worldwide phenomenon, many countries try to recover a virtuous relationship between the growth and employment using various wage subsidy programs. This study focuses on wage subsidy to employers, labor demand-side wage subsidy for which one can think of two types -- a tax credit(a flat wage subsidy) and a social insurance premium exemption(a proportional wage subsidy).For job creation, Korean government reintroduced a tax credit to small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) which have increased their employment level in 2010. But many experts has continuously insisted that it should be replaced with a social insurance premium exemption arguing only a few SMEs benefit from the tax credit as most of them are actually not paying any corporate or general income tax bills. However, as the insurance premium exemption accompanies an increase in the amount of budget with the coverage widen, one cannot confirm its cost effectiveness over the tax credit.This paper aims to provide a theoretical analysis to derive some formal conditions under which a social insurance premium exemption creates more jobs than a tax credit does given a budget constraint. We show that the former’s dominance over the latter depends on whether there exists a dead zone of social insurance or not. If there does not exist a dead zone, a social insurance premium exemption is more desirable in many cases, whereas one cannot guarantees its dominance over a tax credit if there exists a dead zone. Therefore in order to realize its dominance, the government should minimize a dead zone so that most SMEs effectively benefit from the insurance premium exemption. In addition, applying discriminative exemption rates which reflect each firm’s job conditions such as wage level and labor demand/supply sensitivity, the government try to enhance job creation effect.
korean abstract:고용창출효과为了提高劳动需求方面的现行税额控制方式中,工资补助减免社会保险费方式应该代替持续提出主张,在这种情况下,本研究是通过理论分析,这种主张的科学验证的可行性,为了执行了。分析结果、减免社会保险费的方式是否优越的社会保险按照死角存在与否完全不同,不存在死角的减免社会保险费的方式在雇用方面优于税额控制方式,存在死角之一的减免社会保险费不能保障方式的优越性。因此，为了体现社会保险费减免方式的优越性，最重要的是将社会保险死角地带最小化，打下所有企业都能得到工资补助实惠的基础。另外，有必要考虑各企业的雇用条件(工资水平、雇用反应程度等)，分等级适用减免比率，以最大限度地扩大雇用创造效果。english abstract:As the‘jobless growth’is developing into a worldwide phenomenon, many countries try to recover a virtuous relationship between the growth and employment using various wage subsidy programs。This study focuses on wage subsidy to employers，labor demand-side wage subsidy for which one can think of two types——a tax credit(a flat wage subsidy) and a social insurance premium exemption(a proportional wage subsidy)。For job creation, Korean government reintroduced a tax credit to small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) which have increased their employment level in 2010。But many experts has continuously insisted that it should be replaced with a social insurance premium exemption arguing only a few SMEs benefit from the tax credit as most of them are actually notpaying any corporate or general income tax bills。However, as the insurance premium exemption accompanies an increase in the amount of budget with the coverage widen, one cannot confirm its cost effectiveness over the tax credit。This paper aims to provide a theoretical analysis to derive some formal conditions under which a social insurance premium exemption creates more jobs than a tax credit does given a budget constraint。We show that the former ' s dominance over the latter depends on whether there exists a dead zone of social insurance or not。If there does not exist a dead zone, a social insurance premium exemption is more desirable in many cases, whereas one cannot guarantees its dominance over a tax credit If there exists a dead zone。Therefore in order to realize its dominance, the government should minimize a dead zone so that most SMEs effectively benefit from the insurance premium exemption。In addition, applying discriminative exemption rates which reflect each firm ' s job conditions such as wage level and labor demand/supply sensitivity, the government try to enhance job creation effect。
{"title":"노동수요 측면의 임금보조정책 연구 (A Study on Demand-Side Wage Subsidy)","authors":"Hanwook Yoo","doi":"10.23895/kdijep.2011.33.2.111","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2011.33.2.111","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 고용창출효과를 제고하기 위해서 노동수요 측면의 임금보조를 현행 세액공제방식에서 사회보험료감면 방식으로 대체해야 한다는 주장이 지속적으로 제기되고 있는 상황에서, 본 연구는 이론분석을 통해 이러한 주장의 타당성을 과학적으로 검증하기 위해 수행되었다. 분석 결과, 사회보험료감면 방식의 우월 여부는 사회보험 사각지대 존재 여부에 따라 다르게 나타나는데, 사각지대가 존재하지 않는 경우사회보험료감면 방식이 고용창출 측면에서 세액공제 방식보다 우월하나, 사각지대가 존재하는 경우에는 사회보험료감면 방식의 우월성이 보장될 수 없다. 따라서 사회보험료감면 방식의 우월성을 구현하기 위해서는 사회보험 사각지대를 최소화함으로써 모든 기업이 임금보조 혜택을 받을 수 있는 토대를 마련하는 것이 긴요하다. 또한 기업별 고용여건(임금수준, 고용반응도 등)을 고려하여 감면비율을 차등적용 함으로써 고용창출효과 극대화를 도모할 필요가 있다.English Abstract: As the ‘jobless growth’ is developing into a worldwide phenomenon, many countries try to recover a virtuous relationship between the growth and employment using various wage subsidy programs. This study focuses on wage subsidy to employers, labor demand-side wage subsidy for which one can think of two types -- a tax credit(a flat wage subsidy) and a social insurance premium exemption(a proportional wage subsidy).For job creation, Korean government reintroduced a tax credit to small and medium-sized enterprises(SMEs) which have increased their employment level in 2010. But many experts has continuously insisted that it should be replaced with a social insurance premium exemption arguing only a few SMEs benefit from the tax credit as most of them are actually not paying any corporate or general income tax bills. However, as the insurance premium exemption accompanies an increase in the amount of budget with the coverage widen, one cannot confirm its cost effectiveness over the tax credit.This paper aims to provide a theoretical analysis to derive some formal conditions under which a social insurance premium exemption creates more jobs than a tax credit does given a budget constraint. We show that the former’s dominance over the latter depends on whether there exists a dead zone of social insurance or not. If there does not exist a dead zone, a social insurance premium exemption is more desirable in many cases, whereas one cannot guarantees its dominance over a tax credit if there exists a dead zone. Therefore in order to realize its dominance, the government should minimize a dead zone so that most SMEs effectively benefit from the insurance premium exemption. In addition, applying discriminative exemption rates which reflect each firm’s job conditions such as wage level and labor demand/supply sensitivity, the government try to enhance job creation effect.","PeriodicalId":32627,"journal":{"name":"KDI Journal of Economic Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68934684","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2011-03-01DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2011.33.1.1
이한규
{"title":"Terms of Trade Shocks and Nontradable Goods Price Inflation Targeting Under a Small Open Economy","authors":"이한규","doi":"10.23895/KDIJEP.2011.33.1.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/KDIJEP.2011.33.1.1","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":32627,"journal":{"name":"KDI Journal of Economic Policy","volume":"33 1","pages":"1-44"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68934589","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2011-03-01DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2011.33.1.45
Sungbin Cho
{"title":"Strategic Cross-Fund Subsidization Fund Families: Evidence from Equity Funds in Korea","authors":"Sungbin Cho","doi":"10.23895/KDIJEP.2011.33.1.45","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/KDIJEP.2011.33.1.45","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":32627,"journal":{"name":"KDI Journal of Economic Policy","volume":"33 1","pages":"45-72"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2011-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68934626","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2011-03-01DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2011.33.1.93
Yun-Yeong kim, Jinsoo Lee
In this paper, we claim the asymmetric response of asset returns on the past asset returns' signs may be explained from the market behavioral portfolio choice of investors. For this, we admit the anchor and adjustment mechanism of investors which partly explains the momentum in the asset prices. We also claim the prospect theory based on the risk aversions may simultaneously work with the anchor and adjustment effect, whenever the lagged asset return was positive and investors accrued the gain. To identify these effects empirically in a threshold autoregressive model, we suppose the risk aversions inducing the volatility effect is related with the past volatility of asset returns. In application of suggested method to Korean stock and real estate markets, we found these effect exist as expected. 본고에서는 Tversky and Kahneman (1974)의 기준점 효과와 Kahneman and Tversky(1979)의 전망이론으로 해석이 가 능한 현상이 우리나라 자산시장에 동시에 나타나는지를 주가 및 부동산 가격을 대 상으로 검증하였다. 전망이론의 경우 위험 회피 성향 투자자가 가격 상승 시 매각을 선호하는 것으로 예측하는데, 본고는 이런 성향이 자산가격 수익의 변동성이 증가하 는 경우 더 강화되는 것으로 보았다. 1990년대 이후 우리나라 자료를 바탕 으로 실증분석한 결과, 과거 수익률이 양 (+)인 경우, 주가수익률은 과거 20 또는 30 영업일 자료(window)를 이용하여 산 출한 변동성에, 아파트를 제외한 주택가격 수익률은 과거 24~36개월의 자료를 이 용하여 산출한 변동성에 각각 통계적으로 유의한 영향을 받는 것으로 나타났다. 우리나라 자산가격 변동의 기준점 효과 및 전망이론적 해석 가능성 검정 95
In this paper, we claim the asymmetric response of asset returns on the past asset returns' signs may be explained from the market behavioral portfolio choice of investors。For this, we admit the anchor and adjustment mechanism of investors which partly explains the momentum in the asset prices。We also claim the prospect theory based on the risk aversions may simultaneously work with the anchor and adjustment effectwhenever the lagged asset return was positive and investors accrued the gain。To identify these effects empirically in a threshold autoregressive model, we suppose the risk aversions inducing the volatility effect is related with the past volatility of asset returns。In application of suggested method to Korean stock and real estate markets, we found these effect exist as expected。本文通过Tversky and Kahneman(1974)的基准点效果和Kahneman and Tversky(1979)的展望理论，对股价及房地产价格进行了验证，以确认在我国资产市场上是否同时出现可解释的现象。展望理论认为，具有规避风险倾向的投资者在价格上涨时更喜欢出售，但在资产价格收益变动性增加时，这种倾向会得到加强。20世纪90年代以后,韩国的资料为基础,实证分析,结果显示,过去收益率(+)的;주가수익률过去20或30个营业日资料(window)利用山支出的变化,除公寓住宅价格收益率过去24 ~ 36个月的资料,利用计算指数的变动分别统计上留意省受到影响的出现。我国资产价格变动的基准点效果及前景理论解释可能性验证95
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Pub Date : 2010-12-01DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.4.153
Yoonje Cho
{"title":"International Monetary System Reform and the G20","authors":"Yoonje Cho","doi":"10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.4.153","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.4.153","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":32627,"journal":{"name":"KDI Journal of Economic Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":"153-195"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-12-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68934247","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-12-01DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.4.1
Joon-Ho Hahm, Jung-in Kim, Young Sook Lee
We conduct a comprehensive risk analysis of household debt in Korea for the first time using the whole sample credit bureau (CB) data of 2.2 million individual debtors. After analysing debt service capacity profiles of debtor groups classified by the borrower characteristics such as income, age, occupation, credit scoring, and the type of creditor business companies, we investigate the impact of interest rate and income changes on debt service-to-income ratios (DTIs) and default rates of respective debtor groups. Empirical results indicate that debt service burdens are relatively high for low income wage earners, high income self-employed, low income capital and card loan holders, and high income mutual savings loan holders. We also find that debtors from multiple financial companies are particularly weak in their debt service capacity. The scenario analysis indicates that financial companies, with the current level of capital buffers, may be able to absorb negative consequences arising from the increase in DTIs and loan default rates if the interest rate and income changes remain modest. However, the negative consequences may fall disproportionately on non-bank financial companies such as capital, credit card, and mutual savings banks, whose debtors' DTIs are already high. We also find that the refinancing risk of household debt is relatively high in Korea as more than half of household mortgage debts are bullet loans. As the DTIs of mortgage loan holders are already high, under the current DTI regulation, mortgage loans may not be readily refinanced especially when the interest rate rises. Disruptions in mortgage loan refinancing may put downward pressure on housing prices, which may in turn magnify refinancing risk under the current loan-to-value (LTV) regulation. Overall our analysis suggests that, for more effective monitoring of household debt risk, it is necessary to combine existing surveillance schemes based on macro aggregate indicators with more comprehensive and detailed risk analyses based on micro individual data. 본 연구에서는 국내 최초로 총 2,210만 명의 개인신용 전수미시자료에 기초하여 차주별 특성 및 금융업권별로 부채상환능 력을 비교.분석하고, 거시경제 충격에 따 른 금융권역별 총부채상환비율(DTI)과 불 량률의 변화, 차환위험 분석 등을 통해 가 계부채의 건전성을 평가하였다. 실증분석 결과, 차주별로는 저소득 근로 자와 고소득 자영업자의 부채상환부담이 상대적으로 높고, 금융업권별로는 캐피탈
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Pub Date : 2010-09-01DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.3.33
한진희, 류성현
{"title":"Causes of the Decline in Terms of Trade in Korea since the Mid-1990s","authors":"한진희, 류성현","doi":"10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.3.33","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.3.33","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":32627,"journal":{"name":"KDI Journal of Economic Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":"33-69"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-09-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68934145","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-09-01DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.3.71
Pilsun Choi, Insik Min
Adrian and Brunnermeier(2009)가 제 안한 CoVaR는 위기의 파급효과를 측정 하는 데 유용한 도구이다. 특히 어떤 금 융기관이 금융시스템에 대해 어느 정도의 잠재적 리스크를 갖고 있는지를 측정할 수 있다. 본 연구는 CoVaR를 추정하는 데 있어서 Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009)가 사용한 분위수 회귀방식이 아니 라 이변량 정규분포 및 SU-정규분포 등 모수적 분포함수를 이용하여 CoVaR를 추정하는 방법을 제안한다. 이들 모형을 이용하여 국내 은행산업을 대상으로 CoVaR를 추정하고, 이를 통해 CoVaR의 현실적 유용성을 점검함과 동시에 각 모 형들의 추정 성과를 비교한다. 추정 결과, 은행들이 시스템리스크에 양(+)의 기여를 하고 있는 것으로 나타났다. 모형별로는 SU-정규분포모형에 비해 분위수 회귀와 정규분포모형이 CoVaR를 (절댓값에서) 크게 과소평가하며, 위기수준을 높일수록 그 정도가 심해지는 것으로 나타났다. The concept of CoVaR introduced by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009) is a useful tool to measure the risk spillover effect. It can capture the risk contribution of each institution to overall systemic risk. While Adrian and Brunnermeier rely on the quantile regression method in the estimation of CoVaR, we propose a new estimation method using parametric distribution functions such as bivariate normal and SU-normal distribution functions. Based on our estimates of CoVaR for Korean banking industry, we investigate the practical usefulness of CoVaR for a systemic risk measure, and compare the estimation performance of each model. Empirical results show that bank makes a positive contribution to system risk. We also find that quantile regression and normal distribution models tend to considerably underestimate the CoVaR (in absolute value) compared to SU-normal distribution model, and this underestimation becomes serious when the crisis in a financial system is assumed. 한국 은행산업의 CoVaR 추정 73
Adrian and Brunnermeier(2009)提出的CoVaR是测定危机波及效果的有用工具。特别是可以测定哪些金融机构对金融系统具有多大的潜在风险。本研究提出了利用变量正态分布及SU-正态分布等参数分布函数来推测CoVaR的方法，而不是Adrian and Brunnermeier(2009)使用的阶数回归方式。利用这些模型，以国内银行产业为对象，推测CoVaR，并以此检验CoVaR的现实有用性，同时比较各模型的推测成果。据推测，银行对系统风险做出了“量”(+)的贡献。从模型来看，与SU-正态分布模型相比，氛围数回归和正态分布模型大幅低估了CoVaR(在节值中)，危机水平越高，其程度就越严重。The concept of CoVaR introduced by Adrian and Brunnermeier (2009) is a useful tool to measure The risk spillover effectIt can capture the risk contribution of each institution to overall systemic riskWhile Adrian and Brunnermeier rely on the quantile regression method in the estimation of CoVaR;we propose a new estimation method using parametric distribution functions such as bivariate normal and SU-normal distribution functions。Based on our estimates of CoVaR for Korean banking industry, we investigate the practical usefulness of CoVaR for a systemic risk measure, and compare the estimation performance of each model。Empirical results show that bank makes a positive contribution to system risk。We also find that quantile regression and normal distribution models tend to considerably underestimate the CoVaR (in absolute value) compared to SU-normal distribution model;and this underestimation becomes serious when the crisis ina financial system is assumed。韩国银行产业的CoVaR推定值73
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