Pub Date : 2010-06-30DOI: 10.23895/kdijep.2010.32.2.55
Hisam Kim
Korean Abstract: 본 연구에서는 대졸자 직업이동 경로조사(GOMS) 자료를 이용하여 출신대학 소 재지가 노동시장 성과에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 다른 조건이 유사할 때 비서울지역 대학교 졸업자는 서울 소재 대학교 졸업자에 비해 약 16% 정도 낮은 임금을 받는 것으로 추정되었다. 또한 비서울지역 대졸자는 소규모 업체나 전공과 맞지 않는 직장에 다닐 확률이 상대적으로 높은 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 서울 소재 대학 졸업자와 비서울지역 대학 졸업자 간 임금격차의 3분의 2 가량이 입학 당시의 학과 평균 수능점수의 차이로 설명될 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 사업체 규모나 직무와 전공의 일치도의 차이 역시 수능점수 격차에 의해 상당 부분 설명될 수 있다는 것이 밝혀졌다. 이처럼 노동시장 성과 차이에 대한 상당한 설명력을 갖고 있는 수능점수는 출생지, 14세 성장지, 고교소재지가 어느 지역인가에 따라 뚜렷한 격차를 나타냈다. 따라서 지역 간 학력격차 중 교육환경의 지역 간 차이 에서 비롯되는 부분이 있다면 이를 보완할 필요가 있을 것이다.English Abstract: In terms of labor market accomplishments, such as income, size of the company, and the matching quality between one’s job and college major (specialization), a very large discrepancy is observed between the graduates from colleges located in Seoul and those outside Seoul. But, when the department average score of the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) at the time of college entrance is controlled for, the discrepancy is found to be reduced to a considerable degree. In the case of wage gap, at least two third can be explained by the SAT score gap. The remaining wage gap seems to reflect the characteristics of workplace. In other words, graduates with high SAT scores enter colleges located in Seoul and thus tend to find better jobs leading to earning differences. This result that confirms the importance of aptitude test scores suggests that in the labor market, one of the major reasons behind a lower accomplishment of the graduate from local colleges is due to a lower competitiveness of local colleges in attracting the brightest students. But, this should not be viewed as only an internal problem of local colleges. This is because the growth of local economies tends to haul the advancement of local colleges in that area rather than being the other way around. The agglomeration effect in Seoul where headquarters of large corporations and financial institutions gather is the factor that has elevated the status of colleges located in Seoul since this provides highly preferred job choices of graduates. When the competitiveness of college is significantly influenced by exogenous factors, such as the vicinity to Seoul, the effort being made by colleges alone would not be enough to improve the situation. However, the central government, too, is not in the position to carry out countermeasure policies for such problems. The regional development strategy boosted through supportive policies for local colleges, such as financial support, is not based on the persuasive and empirical grounds. It is true that college education is universal and that the government’s intervention in assisting local colleges to secure basic conditions, such as tenure faculty and adequate facilities is necessary. However, the way of intervention should not be a support-only type. In order to improve the efficiency and effect of financial support, restructuring programs, including the merger and integration of insolvent colleges, should be unde
Korean Abstract:本研究利用大学毕业生职业移动路径调查(GOMS)资料，分析了毕业院校所在地对劳动市场成果的影响。据推测，在其他条件相似的情况下，非首尔地区大学毕业生的工资比首尔地区大学毕业生低16%左右。另外，非首尔地区大学毕业生到小规模企业或不符合专业的公司上班的概率相对较高。但据调查，汉城地区大学毕业生和非汉城地区大学毕业生之间工资差距的三分之二左右可以用入学当时学科平均高考分数的差距来解释。另外，事业体规模、职务和专业的一致度差异也可以通过高考分数差距得到很大程度的说明。像这样，对劳动市场成果差异具有相当大的说明力的高考分数，根据出生地、14岁成长地、高中所在地是哪个地区，显示出了明显的差距。因此，如果地区间的学历差距中存在教育环境的地区间差异引起的部分，就有必要对此进行完善。english abstract:In terms of labor market accomplishments, such as income, size of the company, and the matching quality between one ' s job and college major (specialization)a very large discrepancy is observed between the graduates from colleges located in Seoul and those outside Seoul。但是，when the department average score of the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) at the time of college entrance is controlled for, the discrepancy is found to be reduced to a considerable degree。In the case of wage gap, at least two third can be explained by the SAT score gap。The remaining wage gap seems to reflect The characteristics of workplace。In other words, graduates with high SAT scores enter colleges located In Seoul and thus tend to find better jobs leading to earning differences。This result that confirms the importance of aptitude test scores suggests that in the labor market;the graduate from local colleges is due to a lower competitiveness of local colleges in attracting the brightest students。But, this should not be viewed as only an internal problem of local colleges。This is because the growth of local economies tends to haul the advancement of local colleges in that area rather than being the other way around。The agglomeration effect in Seoul where headquarters of large corporations and financial institutions gather is The factor that has elevated The colleges located in Seoul since this provideshighly preferred job choices of graduates。When the competitiveness of college is significantly influenced by exogenous factors, such as the vicinity to Seoul;the effort being made by colleges alone would not be enough to improve the situation。However, the central government, too, is not in the position to carry out countermeasure policies for such problems。The regional development strategy boosted through supportive policies for local colleges, such as financial support, is not based on The persuasive and empirical grounds。It is true that college education is universal and that the government ' s intervention in assisting local colleges to secure basic conditions，such as tenure faculty and adequate facilities is necessary。However, the way of intervention should not be a support-only type。In order to improve the efficiency and effect of financial support, restructuring programs, including the merger and integration of insolvent colleges, should be underway prior to providing support。the policy is focused on education recipients - local college students, and not on education providers -local colleges,elementary and junior high schools turns out to be much important as the gap between metropolitan area colleges and lo
{"title":"지방대학 졸업자의 노동시장 성과와 지역별 교육격차 (Analysis on the Labor Market Performance of Local University Graduates and Regional Education Gap)","authors":"Hisam Kim","doi":"10.23895/kdijep.2010.32.2.55","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2010.32.2.55","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 본 연구에서는 대졸자 직업이동 경로조사(GOMS) 자료를 이용하여 출신대학 소 재지가 노동시장 성과에 미치는 영향을 분석하였다. 다른 조건이 유사할 때 비서울지역 대학교 졸업자는 서울 소재 대학교 졸업자에 비해 약 16% 정도 낮은 임금을 받는 것으로 추정되었다. 또한 비서울지역 대졸자는 소규모 업체나 전공과 맞지 않는 직장에 다닐 확률이 상대적으로 높은 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 서울 소재 대학 졸업자와 비서울지역 대학 졸업자 간 임금격차의 3분의 2 가량이 입학 당시의 학과 평균 수능점수의 차이로 설명될 수 있는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 사업체 규모나 직무와 전공의 일치도의 차이 역시 수능점수 격차에 의해 상당 부분 설명될 수 있다는 것이 밝혀졌다. 이처럼 노동시장 성과 차이에 대한 상당한 설명력을 갖고 있는 수능점수는 출생지, 14세 성장지, 고교소재지가 어느 지역인가에 따라 뚜렷한 격차를 나타냈다. 따라서 지역 간 학력격차 중 교육환경의 지역 간 차이 에서 비롯되는 부분이 있다면 이를 보완할 필요가 있을 것이다.English Abstract: In terms of labor market accomplishments, such as income, size of the company, and the matching quality between one’s job and college major (specialization), a very large discrepancy is observed between the graduates from colleges located in Seoul and those outside Seoul. But, when the department average score of the Scholastic Aptitude Test (SAT) at the time of college entrance is controlled for, the discrepancy is found to be reduced to a considerable degree. In the case of wage gap, at least two third can be explained by the SAT score gap. The remaining wage gap seems to reflect the characteristics of workplace. In other words, graduates with high SAT scores enter colleges located in Seoul and thus tend to find better jobs leading to earning differences. This result that confirms the importance of aptitude test scores suggests that in the labor market, one of the major reasons behind a lower accomplishment of the graduate from local colleges is due to a lower competitiveness of local colleges in attracting the brightest students. But, this should not be viewed as only an internal problem of local colleges. This is because the growth of local economies tends to haul the advancement of local colleges in that area rather than being the other way around. The agglomeration effect in Seoul where headquarters of large corporations and financial institutions gather is the factor that has elevated the status of colleges located in Seoul since this provides highly preferred job choices of graduates. When the competitiveness of college is significantly influenced by exogenous factors, such as the vicinity to Seoul, the effort being made by colleges alone would not be enough to improve the situation. However, the central government, too, is not in the position to carry out countermeasure policies for such problems. The regional development strategy boosted through supportive policies for local colleges, such as financial support, is not based on the persuasive and empirical grounds. It is true that college education is universal and that the government’s intervention in assisting local colleges to secure basic conditions, such as tenure faculty and adequate facilities is necessary. However, the way of intervention should not be a support-only type. In order to improve the efficiency and effect of financial support, restructuring programs, including the merger and integration of insolvent colleges, should be unde","PeriodicalId":32627,"journal":{"name":"KDI Journal of Economic Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-06-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68934096","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-06-01DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.2.1
Soyoung Kim, Kwanho Shin
This paper empirically examines whether Korean monetary policy is independent of U.S. monetary policy during the post-crisis period in which capital account is liberalized and floating exchange rate regime is adopted and during the pre-crisis period in which capital mobility is restricted and tightly managed exchange rate regime is adopted. Before capital account liberalization, monetary autonomy can be achieved in view of the trillema, even under tightly managed exchange rate regime, as capital mobility is restricted. On the other hand, for the period after capital account liberalization, monetary autonomy can be also achieved in view of the trillema, as exchange rate stability is given up. Securing monetary autonomy, however, may not be easy under liberalized capital account for a small open economy like Korea. Huge capital movements can generate excessive instability in foreign exchange and asset markets. Strengthened international economic linkages may also be another factor to prevent monetary policy from being independent. Using block-exogenous structural VAR model, the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on Korean economy are examined. Empirical results show that Korean monetary policy is not independent of U.S. monetary policy for both periods before and after capital account liberalization. For the period after capital account liberalization, Korea does not seem to have implemented floating exchange rate policy in practice, which may lead Korean monetary policy to be dependent on U.S. monetary policy. For the period after capital account liberalization, portfolio flows respond dramatically to the U.S. monetary policy, which may also keep Korean monetary policy from being independent. 본 논문은 한국이 1997년 외환위기 이 후 변동환율제 도입과 더불어 자본자유화 로 자본시장이 글로벌화된 상황에서 외부 로부터 독립적인 통화정책을 유지할 수 있었는지를 자본자유화 이전 기간과 비교 하여 분석했다. 트릴레마 이론에 비추어보 면, 자본자유화 이전에는 환율시장에 적극 적으로 개입을 해도 이론적으로 독립적인 통화정책을 유지할 수 있는 여지가 있었 으며, 자본자유화 이후에는 환율제도가 자 유변동환율제도로 전환함에 따라 독립적 인 통화정책을 유지할 수 있는 여지가 있 었다. 하지만 한국과 같은 소규모 개방경 제의 경우 자본시장이 완전히 개방되어 국 가 간 연계성이 증가하고, 막대한 양의 국 제자본 유출입이 발생하여 환율과 자산 시 장의 심각한 불안정성을 초래할 수 있으므 로 외국의 통화정책과 자본 흐름으로부터 완전히 자유로운 통화정책을 집행하기 어 려울 수 있다. 본 논문의 실증분석에서는
{"title":"Globalization of Capital Markets and Monetary Policy Independence in Korea","authors":"Soyoung Kim, Kwanho Shin","doi":"10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.2.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.2.1","url":null,"abstract":"This paper empirically examines whether Korean monetary policy is independent of U.S. monetary policy during the post-crisis period in which capital account is liberalized and floating exchange rate regime is adopted and during the pre-crisis period in which capital mobility is restricted and tightly managed exchange rate regime is adopted. Before capital account liberalization, monetary autonomy can be achieved in view of the trillema, even under tightly managed exchange rate regime, as capital mobility is restricted. On the other hand, for the period after capital account liberalization, monetary autonomy can be also achieved in view of the trillema, as exchange rate stability is given up. Securing monetary autonomy, however, may not be easy under liberalized capital account for a small open economy like Korea. Huge capital movements can generate excessive instability in foreign exchange and asset markets. Strengthened international economic linkages may also be another factor to prevent monetary policy from being independent. Using block-exogenous structural VAR model, the effects of U.S. monetary policy shocks on Korean economy are examined. Empirical results show that Korean monetary policy is not independent of U.S. monetary policy for both periods before and after capital account liberalization. For the period after capital account liberalization, Korea does not seem to have implemented floating exchange rate policy in practice, which may lead Korean monetary policy to be dependent on U.S. monetary policy. For the period after capital account liberalization, portfolio flows respond dramatically to the U.S. monetary policy, which may also keep Korean monetary policy from being independent. 본 논문은 한국이 1997년 외환위기 이 후 변동환율제 도입과 더불어 자본자유화 로 자본시장이 글로벌화된 상황에서 외부 로부터 독립적인 통화정책을 유지할 수 있었는지를 자본자유화 이전 기간과 비교 하여 분석했다. 트릴레마 이론에 비추어보 면, 자본자유화 이전에는 환율시장에 적극 적으로 개입을 해도 이론적으로 독립적인 통화정책을 유지할 수 있는 여지가 있었 으며, 자본자유화 이후에는 환율제도가 자 유변동환율제도로 전환함에 따라 독립적 인 통화정책을 유지할 수 있는 여지가 있 었다. 하지만 한국과 같은 소규모 개방경 제의 경우 자본시장이 완전히 개방되어 국 가 간 연계성이 증가하고, 막대한 양의 국 제자본 유출입이 발생하여 환율과 자산 시 장의 심각한 불안정성을 초래할 수 있으므 로 외국의 통화정책과 자본 흐름으로부터 완전히 자유로운 통화정책을 집행하기 어 려울 수 있다. 본 논문의 실증분석에서는","PeriodicalId":32627,"journal":{"name":"KDI Journal of Economic Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":"1-26"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-06-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68933944","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-03-01DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.1.1
H. Shin
Securitization was meant to disperse credit risk to those who were better able to bear it. In practice, securitization appears to have concentrated the risks in the financial intermediary sector itself. This paper outlines an accounting framework for the financial system for assessing the impact of securitization on financial stability. If securitization leads to the lengthening of intermediation chains, then risks become concentrated in the intermediary sector with damaging consequences for financial stability. Covered bonds are one form of securitization that do not fall foul of this principle. I discuss the role of countercyclial capital requirements and the Spanish-style statistical provisioning in mitigating the harmful effects of lengthening intermediation chains. For Korea, the stability of funding emerges as a key consideration. Covered bonds may play a role in stabilizing the funding arrangement for banks.
{"title":"Financial Intermediation and the Post-Crisis Financial System with Implications for Korea","authors":"H. Shin","doi":"10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.1.1","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.1.1","url":null,"abstract":"Securitization was meant to disperse credit risk to those who were better able to bear it. In practice, securitization appears to have concentrated the risks in the financial intermediary sector itself. This paper outlines an accounting framework for the financial system for assessing the impact of securitization on financial stability. If securitization leads to the lengthening of intermediation chains, then risks become concentrated in the intermediary sector with damaging consequences for financial stability. Covered bonds are one form of securitization that do not fall foul of this principle. I discuss the role of countercyclial capital requirements and the Spanish-style statistical provisioning in mitigating the harmful effects of lengthening intermediation chains. For Korea, the stability of funding emerges as a key consideration. Covered bonds may play a role in stabilizing the funding arrangement for banks.","PeriodicalId":32627,"journal":{"name":"KDI Journal of Economic Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":"1-26"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68934345","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-03-01DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.1.69
Kwang-Ho Kim
This paper aims to put forward some policy suggestions regarding the goal and strategies of the regional development policy in Korea. We first survey past regional policies and examine the regional disparity in Korea. It is found using the OECD data that although population and income are highly concentrated, inequalities of income and other living standards do not seem as problematic as to call for strong government intervention. Moreover, recent development in the new economic geography implies that the ‘capital vs. non-capital area’ framework that has been shaping the Korean regional development policy should be reconsidered. The main message of this paper is that it is not desirable for the central government to disperse agglomeration to enhance regional equity and that local governments should be responsible for regional development. Therefore enhancing the autonomy and accountability of the regional government is essential.
{"title":"Reconsidering the Goal and Strategy of Regional Development Policy in Korea","authors":"Kwang-Ho Kim","doi":"10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.1.69","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.1.69","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to put forward some policy suggestions regarding the goal and strategies of the regional development policy in Korea. We first survey past regional policies and examine the regional disparity in Korea. It is found using the OECD data that although population and income are highly concentrated, inequalities of income and other living standards do not seem as problematic as to call for strong government intervention. Moreover, recent development in the new economic geography implies that the ‘capital vs. non-capital area’ framework that has been shaping the Korean regional development policy should be reconsidered. The main message of this paper is that it is not desirable for the central government to disperse agglomeration to enhance regional equity and that local governments should be responsible for regional development. Therefore enhancing the autonomy and accountability of the regional government is essential.","PeriodicalId":32627,"journal":{"name":"KDI Journal of Economic Policy","volume":"32 1","pages":"69-96"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-03-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68934396","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-03-01DOI: 10.23895/KDIJEP.2010.32.1.97
Inseok Shin, Sungbin Cho
We examine performance of actively managed equity funds in Korea for the period from 2002 to 2008 and investigate if fund managers have market timing abilities. We obtain the following findings: (1) average performance of funds evaluated at net return basis(net of expenses) is statistically indistinguishable from zero; (2) average performance of funds evaluated at gross return basis(before netting expenses) exceeds benchmark market returns significantly. More importantly, when funds are grouped by their size of expenses, higher performance is matched with larger expense; (3) the regression results for decomposing positive excessive returns of large-expense funds between market timing and stock selection ability are mixed. The first two findings of the paper are consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis a lá Grossman and Stiglitz(1980). Concluding remarks, however, need to be reserved since sources of excessive performance of funds with large expenses are yet to be clarified. 본고에서는 2002년 1월에서 2008년 12월까지 존재한 국내 주식형 펀드를 대 상으로 하여 투자성과를 평가하고 마켓타 이밍 능력의 존재 여부를 검토하였다. 주 요 분석 결과는 다음과 같다. 첫째, 모든 투자비용을 공제한 순수익률 기준 펀드의 초과성과는 0과 다르지 않았다. 둘째, 투 자비용이 공제되기 이전 총수익률 기준 펀드의 초과성과는 통계적으로 유의하게 0을 상회하였다. 특히, 보수수준과 초과성 과 간에는 양의 상관관계가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 셋째, 보수수준이 높은 그룹에 서 발견된 양의 초과성과를 마켓타이밍 능력과 주식선별능력으로 구분하는 추정 을 실시하였으나, 추정 결과는 일의적인 해석이 곤란하였다. 분석 결과는 일단 Grossman and Stiglitz(1980)가 상정한 정보비용이 존재하는 효율적 시장가설과 일치한다. 그러나 보수가 높은 펀드의 초 과성과 창출요인이 밝혀지지 않았으므로 이 해석의 타당성에 대한 결론적 언명은
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Pub Date : 2010-01-01DOI: 10.23895/kdijep.2010.32.2.171
JunesuhYi, 강경훈
{"title":"A Study on the Interdependencies of Payment and Settlement Systems in Korea","authors":"JunesuhYi, 강경훈","doi":"10.23895/kdijep.2010.32.2.171","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2010.32.2.171","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":32627,"journal":{"name":"KDI Journal of Economic Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68934040","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2010-01-01DOI: 10.23895/kdijep.2010.32.4.115
서중해
{"title":"Empirical Analysis of University Patenting in Korea","authors":"서중해","doi":"10.23895/kdijep.2010.32.4.115","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2010.32.4.115","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":32627,"journal":{"name":"KDI Journal of Economic Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2010-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68934238","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2009-12-31DOI: 10.23895/kdijep.2009.31.2.47
Jaejoon Lee
Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 1970년 이후 우리나라 거시 경제변수들의 경기변동과 관련된 특징들을 포괄적으로 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라의 각종 거시경제 변수들이 어떠한 특성을 보여 왔는지에 대해 실증분석 하였다. 실증분석에서는 크게 국내 경제의 순환적 변동을 어떻게 식별할 것인지, 주요 경제변수들이 전체 경기순환 과정에서 어떠한 패턴으로 변동하고 있는지, 그리고 경기변동과정의 안정성에 대한변화 여부 등의 이슈를 다루었다. 분석 결과, 1970년 이후 우리나라 거시경제의 안정성은 외환위기 기간을 제외하고는 개선되었으며, 특히 2000년 이후부터는 경제내의 부문 간에 상호보완적인 관계가 나타나면서 전체적인 경기변동성이 감소하였던 것으로 나타나고 있다.English Abstract: With a relatively simple quantitative method, this study comprehensively analyzes the characteristics related to business cycles represented by macroeconomic variables of Korea since 1970. This empirical analysis deals with roughly following three topics: How to identify cyclical component with respect to trend; with what characteristics and how the economic variables of each sector move within the phases of business cycle, and; whether there are signs of a structural change in the phases of business cycle. Section 2 discusses how to identify trends and cycle components, the basis assumption for the analysis of business cycle. Like the Korean economy, where a relatively high growth rate has been maintained, it is appropriate to determine its economic recession based on the fall in the growth trend, not in the absolute level of real output. And, it is necessary to apply the concept of growth cycle against a traditional concept of business cycle. Accordingly the setting of growth trend is of preliminary importance in identifying cyclical fluctuations. The analysis of Korea’s GDP data since 1970, the decomposition of trends and cycles through the Band-pass filter is found to appropriately identify the actual phases of busyness cycle. Section 3 analyzes what particular relationship various economic variables have with output fluctuations during the phases of economic cycle, using the cross-correlation coefficients and prediction contribution. Section 4 monitors the stability of the phases of Korea’s business cycle and quantitatively verifies whether there is a structural break, and then reviews the characteristics of variations in each sector. And, stylized facts observed through these studies are summarized in the conclusion. The macroeconomic stability of Korea, in particular, is found to continue to improve since 1970, except for the financial crisis period. Not only that, it is found that its volatility of economic growth rate as well as inflation have been reduced gradually. Meanwhile, until recently since 2000, the volatility in domestic demand has remained stable, while that in exports and imports has been increased slightly. But, in an overall perspective, Korea’s business cycle variation is on the decline due to shorter response period to shocks and the formation of complementary relationship among economic sectors.
Korean Abstract:本研究的目的是全面分析1970年以后我国宏观经济变数的景气变动相关的特征。本研究对我国各种宏观经济变数表现出怎样的特性进行了实证分析。实证分析主要讨论了如何识别国内经济的循环性变动、主要经济变数在整个景气循环过程中以怎样的模式变动、景气变动过程的稳定性是否发生变化等焦点问题。分析结果显示，除金融危机期间外，1970年以后韩国宏观经济的稳定性得到了改善，特别是2000年以后，经济部门之间出现了互补关系，整体经济变动性有所减少。english abstract:With a relatively simple quantitative method, this study comprehensively analyzes the characteristics related to business cycles represented by macroeconomic variables of Korea since 1970。This empirical analysis deals with roughly following three topics: How to identify cyclical component with respect to trend;with what characteristics and how the economic variables of each sector move with the phases of business cycle, and;whether there are signs of a structural change in the phases of business cycle。Section 2 discusses how to identify trends and cycle components, the basis assumption for the analysis of business cycle。Like the Korean economy, where a relatively high growth rate has been maintained, it is appropriate to determine its economic recession based on the fall in the growth trend;not in the absolute level of real output。it is necessary to apply the concept of growth cycle against a traditional concept of business cycle。Accordingly the setting of growth trend is of preliminary importance in identifying cyclical fluctuations。The analysis of Korea ' s GDP数据since 1970, The decomposition of trends and cycles through The Band-pass filter is found to appropriately identify The actual phases of busyness cycle。Section 3 analyzes what particular relationship various economic variables have with output fluctuations during the phases of economic cycleusing the cross-correlation coefficients and prediction contribution。Section 4 monitors the stability of the phases of Korea ' s business cycle and quantitatively verifies whether there is a structural break;and then reviews the characteristics of variations in each sectorAnd stylized facts observed through these studies are summarized in the conclusion。The macroeconomic stability of Korea, in particular, is found to continue to improve since 1970, except for The financial crisis period。Not only that it is found that its volatility of economic growth rate as well as inflation have been reduced gradually。the volatility in domestic demand has remained stable, while that in exports and imports has been increased slightly。但是，in an overall perspective, Korea ' s business cycle variation is on the decline due to shorter response period to shocks and the formation of complementary relationship among economic sectors。
{"title":"한국 경기변동의 특징 및안정성에 대한 연구 (Changes in the Business Cycle of the Korean Economy: Evidence and Explanations)","authors":"Jaejoon Lee","doi":"10.23895/kdijep.2009.31.2.47","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.23895/kdijep.2009.31.2.47","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 본 연구는 1970년 이후 우리나라 거시 경제변수들의 경기변동과 관련된 특징들을 포괄적으로 분석하는 것을 목적으로 한다. 본 연구에서는 우리나라의 각종 거시경제 변수들이 어떠한 특성을 보여 왔는지에 대해 실증분석 하였다. 실증분석에서는 크게 국내 경제의 순환적 변동을 어떻게 식별할 것인지, 주요 경제변수들이 전체 경기순환 과정에서 어떠한 패턴으로 변동하고 있는지, 그리고 경기변동과정의 안정성에 대한변화 여부 등의 이슈를 다루었다. 분석 결과, 1970년 이후 우리나라 거시경제의 안정성은 외환위기 기간을 제외하고는 개선되었으며, 특히 2000년 이후부터는 경제내의 부문 간에 상호보완적인 관계가 나타나면서 전체적인 경기변동성이 감소하였던 것으로 나타나고 있다.English Abstract: With a relatively simple quantitative method, this study comprehensively analyzes the characteristics related to business cycles represented by macroeconomic variables of Korea since 1970. This empirical analysis deals with roughly following three topics: How to identify cyclical component with respect to trend; with what characteristics and how the economic variables of each sector move within the phases of business cycle, and; whether there are signs of a structural change in the phases of business cycle. Section 2 discusses how to identify trends and cycle components, the basis assumption for the analysis of business cycle. Like the Korean economy, where a relatively high growth rate has been maintained, it is appropriate to determine its economic recession based on the fall in the growth trend, not in the absolute level of real output. And, it is necessary to apply the concept of growth cycle against a traditional concept of business cycle. Accordingly the setting of growth trend is of preliminary importance in identifying cyclical fluctuations. The analysis of Korea’s GDP data since 1970, the decomposition of trends and cycles through the Band-pass filter is found to appropriately identify the actual phases of busyness cycle. Section 3 analyzes what particular relationship various economic variables have with output fluctuations during the phases of economic cycle, using the cross-correlation coefficients and prediction contribution. Section 4 monitors the stability of the phases of Korea’s business cycle and quantitatively verifies whether there is a structural break, and then reviews the characteristics of variations in each sector. And, stylized facts observed through these studies are summarized in the conclusion. The macroeconomic stability of Korea, in particular, is found to continue to improve since 1970, except for the financial crisis period. Not only that, it is found that its volatility of economic growth rate as well as inflation have been reduced gradually. Meanwhile, until recently since 2000, the volatility in domestic demand has remained stable, while that in exports and imports has been increased slightly. But, in an overall perspective, Korea’s business cycle variation is on the decline due to shorter response period to shocks and the formation of complementary relationship among economic sectors.","PeriodicalId":32627,"journal":{"name":"KDI Journal of Economic Policy","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2009-12-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"68934262","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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