首页 > 最新文献

Brazilian Review of Econometrics最新文献

英文 中文
Optimal Exchange Rate Policy and Business Cycles 最优汇率政策与商业周期
Pub Date : 2014-06-20 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V33N12013.14877
A. Cunha
Implementation and collapse of exchange rate pegging schemes are recurrent events. A currency crisis (pegging) is often followed by an economic downturn (boom). In this essay I study why a benevolent Central Bank should pursue a monetary policy that leads to those recurrent currency crises and subsequent periods of pegging. I show that the optimal policy induces a competitive equilibrium that displays a boom in periods of below average devaluation and a recession in periods of above average devaluation. Therefore, a currency crisis (pegging) can be understood as an optimal policy answer to a recession (boom).
汇率挂钩机制的实施和崩溃是经常发生的事情。货币危机(钉住汇率)通常伴随着经济衰退(繁荣)。在这篇文章中,我研究了为什么仁慈的中央银行应该采取一种导致反复出现的货币危机和随后的挂钩时期的货币政策。我表明,最优政策会导致竞争均衡,在低于平均贬值水平的时期出现繁荣,在高于平均贬值水平的时期出现衰退。因此,货币危机(钉住汇率)可以被理解为应对衰退(繁荣)的最佳政策。
{"title":"Optimal Exchange Rate Policy and Business Cycles","authors":"A. Cunha","doi":"10.12660/BRE.V33N12013.14877","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/BRE.V33N12013.14877","url":null,"abstract":"Implementation and collapse of exchange rate pegging schemes are recurrent events. A currency crisis (pegging) is often followed by an economic downturn (boom). In this essay I study why a benevolent Central Bank should pursue a monetary policy that leads to those recurrent currency crises and subsequent periods of pegging. I show that the optimal policy induces a competitive equilibrium that displays a boom in periods of below average devaluation and a recession in periods of above average devaluation. Therefore, a currency crisis (pegging) can be understood as an optimal policy answer to a recession (boom).","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115938535","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Poverty Dynamics in Mexico, 2002-2005. An Ethnicity Approach 2002-2005年墨西哥贫困动态。种族方法
Pub Date : 2014-05-28 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V33N12013.8944
Jennifer Castañeda Navarrete
This paper aims to contribute to two areas where the empirical research is still scarce—poverty dynamics and indigenous peoples’ welfare. The coverage area of this study is Mexico, a country where indigenous people represent 9.5% of the total population and face a significant gap in their welfare levels in comparison to non-indigenous individuals. By following a components approach, poverty is found to be a chronic phenomenon in Mexico with the chronic component accounting for 75% of the total poverty. Furthermore, by applying a three-fold Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition and Tobit regressions, the analysis highlights some factors that contribute to explaining the disadvantaged living conditions faced by indigenous people. These issues include: Lower schooling endowments and returns, lack of adequate infrastructure, fewer economic opportunities either because of labor discrimination or the lack of jobs and access to credit, as well as higher vulnerability to natural disasters.
本文旨在为实证研究仍然匮乏的两个领域——贫困动态和土著人民福利做出贡献。本研究的覆盖区域是墨西哥,这个国家的土著人口占总人口的9.5%,与非土著人口相比,他们的福利水平存在巨大差距。通过采用组成部分方法,发现墨西哥的贫困是一种长期现象,长期组成部分占总贫困的75%。此外,通过运用布林德-瓦哈卡三重分解和Tobit回归,该分析突出了一些有助于解释土著人民面临的不利生活条件的因素。这些问题包括:较低的教育捐赠和回报,缺乏足够的基础设施,由于劳工歧视或缺乏工作和信贷而导致的经济机会较少,以及更容易受到自然灾害的影响。
{"title":"Poverty Dynamics in Mexico, 2002-2005. An Ethnicity Approach","authors":"Jennifer Castañeda Navarrete","doi":"10.12660/BRE.V33N12013.8944","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/BRE.V33N12013.8944","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to contribute to two areas where the empirical research is still scarce—poverty dynamics and indigenous peoples’ welfare. The coverage area of this study is Mexico, a country where indigenous people represent 9.5% of the total population and face a significant gap in their welfare levels in comparison to non-indigenous individuals. By following a components approach, poverty is found to be a chronic phenomenon in Mexico with the chronic component accounting for 75% of the total poverty. Furthermore, by applying a three-fold Blinder-Oaxaca decomposition and Tobit regressions, the analysis highlights some factors that contribute to explaining the disadvantaged living conditions faced by indigenous people. These issues include: Lower schooling endowments and returns, lack of adequate infrastructure, fewer economic opportunities either because of labor discrimination or the lack of jobs and access to credit, as well as higher vulnerability to natural disasters.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"47 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122595053","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
Immunization of Fixed-Income Portfolios Using an Exponential Parametric Model * 基于指数参数模型的固定收益投资组合免疫研究*
Pub Date : 2014-05-07 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V34N22014.18432
Caio Almeida, Bruno Lund
Litterman e Scheinkman (1991) mostram que mesmo uma carteira de renda fixa duration imunizada (neutra) pode sofrer grandes perdas e, portanto, propoem fazer hedge de carteiras utilizando a analise de componentes principais. O problema e que tal abordagem so e possivel quando as taxas de juros sao observaveis. Assim, quando as taxas de juros nao sao observaveis, como e o caso da maior parte dos mercados de divida externa e interna de diversos paises emergentes, o metodo nao e diretamente aplicavel. Este artigo propoe uma abordagem alternativa que e realizar o hedge baseado nos fatores de um modelo parametrico da estrutura a termo. A imunizacao seguindo esta abordagem nao so se mostra simples como tambem equivalente ao procedimento proposto por Litterman e Scheinkman quando as taxas sao observaveis. Exemplos do metodo para operacoes de hedge e alavancagem nos mercados de titulos de divida publica brasileira indexada a inflacao sao apresentados. O trabalho ainda discute como montar a aprecar carteiras que replicam fatores de risco, o que permite extrair alguma informacao sobre a expectativa dos agentes acerca do comportamento futuro da curva de juros.
Litterman和Scheinkman(1991)表明,即使是免疫的(中性的)固定期限投资组合也会遭受巨大的损失,因此建议使用主成分分析来对冲投资组合。问题是,这种方法只有在利率可观察到的情况下才有可能。因此,当利率不可见时,就像许多新兴国家的大多数国内外债券市场一样,这种方法并不直接适用。本文提出了一种基于参数远期结构模型因子进行对冲的替代方法。遵循这种方法的免疫不仅被证明是简单的,而且与Litterman和Scheinkman提出的程序相当,当速率可以观察到。本文举例说明了与通货膨胀挂钩的巴西国债市场的对冲和杠杆操作方法。本文还讨论了如何构建复制风险因素的投资组合,这允许提取一些关于代理人对利率曲线未来行为的预期的信息。
{"title":"Immunization of Fixed-Income Portfolios Using an Exponential Parametric Model *","authors":"Caio Almeida, Bruno Lund","doi":"10.12660/BRE.V34N22014.18432","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/BRE.V34N22014.18432","url":null,"abstract":"Litterman e Scheinkman (1991) mostram que mesmo uma carteira de renda fixa duration imunizada (neutra) pode sofrer grandes perdas e, portanto, propoem fazer hedge de carteiras utilizando a analise de componentes principais. O problema e que tal abordagem so e possivel quando as taxas de juros sao observaveis. Assim, quando as taxas de juros nao sao observaveis, como e o caso da maior parte dos mercados de divida externa e interna de diversos paises emergentes, o metodo nao e diretamente aplicavel. Este artigo propoe uma abordagem alternativa que e realizar o hedge baseado nos fatores de um modelo parametrico da estrutura a termo. A imunizacao seguindo esta abordagem nao so se mostra simples como tambem equivalente ao procedimento proposto por Litterman e Scheinkman quando as taxas sao observaveis. Exemplos do metodo para operacoes de hedge e alavancagem nos mercados de titulos de divida publica brasileira indexada a inflacao sao apresentados. O trabalho ainda discute como montar a aprecar carteiras que replicam fatores de risco, o que permite extrair alguma informacao sobre a expectativa dos agentes acerca do comportamento futuro da curva de juros.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122656257","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 1
Os determinantes macroeconômicos da estrutura a termo das expectativas de inflação no Brasil 巴西通胀预期远期结构的宏观经济决定因素
Pub Date : 2014-05-05 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V35N12015.17002
M. Fernandes, Eduardo Thiele
This paper aims to analyze the dynamics of inflation expectations according to macroeconomics conditions. To this end, we extract the expected inflation curve implied by indexed bonds and then estimate a dynamic factor model. The factors corresponds to the level, slope and curvature of the term structure, varying over time as a function of the exchange rate, inflation, commodities index and the CDS-implied Brazil risk. A standard deviation shock in the exchange rate increases inflation more in the short and long terms than in the medium run. The same pattern arises in the presence of a shock in inflation. A shock in commodity prices increases inflation mostly in the short term, stabilizing notwithstanding at a higher level than the original curve. In contrast, a shock in the CDS shifts down the expected inflation curve in a virtually parallel manner.
本文旨在分析宏观经济条件下通货膨胀预期的动态变化。为此,我们提取了指数化债券隐含的预期通胀曲线,然后估计了一个动态因子模型。这些因素对应于期限结构的水平、斜率和曲率,随着时间的推移而变化,作为汇率、通胀、大宗商品指数和cds隐含的巴西风险的函数。汇率的标准偏差冲击在短期和长期内比在中期更能增加通货膨胀。在通胀受到冲击的情况下,同样的模式也会出现。大宗商品价格的震荡主要会在短期内推高通胀,尽管通胀率会在高于原始曲线的水平上企稳。相反,CDS的震荡会以几乎平行的方式使预期通胀曲线向下平移。
{"title":"Os determinantes macroeconômicos da estrutura a termo das expectativas de inflação no Brasil","authors":"M. Fernandes, Eduardo Thiele","doi":"10.12660/BRE.V35N12015.17002","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/BRE.V35N12015.17002","url":null,"abstract":"This paper aims to analyze the dynamics of inflation expectations according to macroeconomics conditions. To this end, we extract the expected inflation curve implied by indexed bonds and then estimate a dynamic factor model. The factors corresponds to the level, slope and curvature of the term structure, varying over time as a function of the exchange rate, inflation, commodities index and the CDS-implied Brazil risk. A standard deviation shock in the exchange rate increases inflation more in the short and long terms than in the medium run. The same pattern arises in the presence of a shock in inflation. A shock in commodity prices increases inflation mostly in the short term, stabilizing notwithstanding at a higher level than the original curve. In contrast, a shock in the CDS shifts down the expected inflation curve in a virtually parallel manner.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"25 17","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132272155","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Profundidade de mercado na BM&FBovespa
Pub Date : 2014-05-05 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V34N12014.17457
C. Barros, M. Fernandes
O objetivo desse trabalho e estimar a medida dinâmica VNET de profundidade de mercado para acoes brasileiras a partir de dados de transacao. VNET mede a diferenca no numero de acoes compradas e vendidas no intervalo de tempo necessario para que o preco se movesse alem de um determinado incremento. E uma medida de liquidez realizada para uma deterioracao especifica de preco que pode ser calculada seguidamente ao longo do dia, capturando assim a dinâmica de curto prazo da liquidez. Em particular, assume-se que essa duracao de precos segue um modelo autorregressivo de duracao condicional (ACD). A natureza pre-determinada do processo ACD e conveniente porque nos permite prever mudancas futuras na liquidez de uma acao. Assim, ao identificar os melhores momentos para realizar uma operacao de compra ou venda, o VNET e um excelente ponto de partida para qualquer estrategia de execucao otima. Os resultados empiricos deste trabalho indicam que a profundidade de mercado medida pelo VNET varia com agio de compra e venda, com o volume negociado, com o numero de negocios, com a duracao de precos condicional, e com o seu erro de previsao. Para estimar a curva de reacao do mercado, variamos os intervalos de preco usados na definicao das duracoes de precos.
本研究的目的是利用交易数据估计巴西股票市场深度的动态VNET度量。VNET衡量的是在价格移动超过一定增量所需的时间间隔内买卖股票数量的差异。它是针对特定价格恶化而执行的流动性度量,然后可以在一天内计算出来,从而捕捉流动性的短期动态。特别地,假设价格持续时间遵循条件持续时间(ACD)的自回归模型。ACD过程的预定性质是方便的,因为它允许我们预测股票流动性的未来变化。因此,在确定进行买卖交易的最佳时间时,VNET是任何最佳执行策略的一个极好的起点。本研究的实证结果表明,以VNET衡量的市场深度随买卖价格、交易量、交易量、条件价格持续时间和预测误差而变化。为了估计市场反应曲线,我们改变了用于定义价格持续时间的价格区间。
{"title":"Profundidade de mercado na BM&FBovespa","authors":"C. Barros, M. Fernandes","doi":"10.12660/BRE.V34N12014.17457","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/BRE.V34N12014.17457","url":null,"abstract":"O objetivo desse trabalho e estimar a medida dinâmica VNET de profundidade de mercado para acoes brasileiras a partir de dados de transacao. VNET mede a diferenca no numero de acoes compradas e vendidas no intervalo de tempo necessario para que o preco se movesse alem de um determinado incremento. E uma medida de liquidez realizada para uma deterioracao especifica de preco que pode ser calculada seguidamente ao longo do dia, capturando assim a dinâmica de curto prazo da liquidez. Em particular, assume-se que essa duracao de precos segue um modelo autorregressivo de duracao condicional (ACD). A natureza pre-determinada do processo ACD e conveniente porque nos permite prever mudancas futuras na liquidez de uma acao. Assim, ao identificar os melhores momentos para realizar uma operacao de compra ou venda, o VNET e um excelente ponto de partida para qualquer estrategia de execucao otima. Os resultados empiricos deste trabalho indicam que a profundidade de mercado medida pelo VNET varia com agio de compra e venda, com o volume negociado, com o numero de negocios, com a duracao de precos condicional, e com o seu erro de previsao. Para estimar a curva de reacao do mercado, variamos os intervalos de preco usados na definicao das duracoes de precos.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133366758","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Credit shocks and monetary policy in Brazil: a structural FAVAR approach 巴西的信贷冲击和货币政策:结构性FAVAR方法
Pub Date : 2014-05-05 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V32N22012.17153
Marcelo Fonseca, Pedro L. Valls Pereira
This paper investigates the implications of the credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the case of Brazil, using a structural FAVAR (SFAVAR) approach. The term structural comes from the estimation strategy, which generates factors that have a clear economic interpretation. The results show that unexpected shocks in the proxies for the external nance premium and the bank balance sheet channel produce large and persistent uctuations in in ation and economic activity accounting for more than 30% of the error forecast variance of the latter in a three-year horizon. The central bank seems to incorporate developments in credit markets especially variations in credit spreads into its reaction function, as impulse-response exercises show the Selic rate is declining in response to wider credit spreads and a contraction in the volume of new loans. Counterfactual simulations also demonstrate that the credit channel ampli ed the economic contraction in Brazil during the acute phase of the global nancial crisis in the last quarter of 2008, thus gave an important impulse to the recovery period that followed.
本文采用结构性FAVAR (SFAVAR)方法研究了巴西货币政策传导机制中信贷渠道的影响。“结构性”一词来自于估算策略,它产生了具有明确经济解释的因素。结果表明,外部融资溢价和银行资产负债表渠道代理的意外冲击会导致通货膨胀和经济活动出现持续的大幅波动,占后者三年内误差预测方差的30%以上。央行似乎将信贷市场的发展,尤其是信贷息差的变化纳入了其反应函数,因为脉冲反应练习显示,随着信贷息差扩大和新增贷款量的收缩,Selic利率正在下降。反事实模拟还表明,在2008年第四季度全球金融危机的严重阶段,信贷渠道加剧了巴西的经济收缩,从而对随后的恢复期起到了重要的推动作用。
{"title":"Credit shocks and monetary policy in Brazil: a structural FAVAR approach","authors":"Marcelo Fonseca, Pedro L. Valls Pereira","doi":"10.12660/BRE.V32N22012.17153","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/BRE.V32N22012.17153","url":null,"abstract":"This paper investigates the implications of the credit channel of the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the case of Brazil, using a structural FAVAR (SFAVAR) approach. The term structural comes from the estimation strategy, which generates factors that have a clear economic interpretation. The results show that unexpected shocks in the proxies for the external nance premium and the bank balance sheet channel produce large and persistent uctuations in in ation and economic activity accounting for more than 30% of the error forecast variance of the latter in a three-year horizon. The central bank seems to incorporate developments in credit markets especially variations in credit spreads into its reaction function, as impulse-response exercises show the Selic rate is declining in response to wider credit spreads and a contraction in the volume of new loans. Counterfactual simulations also demonstrate that the credit channel ampli ed the economic contraction in Brazil during the acute phase of the global nancial crisis in the last quarter of 2008, thus gave an important impulse to the recovery period that followed.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"73 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"115268086","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
The Finite-Sample Size of the BDS Test for GARCH Standardized Residuals GARCH标准残差的BDS检验的有限样本容量
Pub Date : 2014-05-05 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V32N22012.18608
Marcelo Fernandes, P. Preumont
This paper uses a multivariate response surface methodology to analyze the size distortion of the BDS test when applied to standardized residuals of rst-order GARCH processes. The results show that the asymptotic standard normal distribution is an unreliable approximation even in large samples. On the other hand, a simple log-transformation of the squared standardized residuals seems to correct most of the size problems. The estimated response surfaces can nonetheless provide not only a measure of the size distortion, but also more adequate critical values for theBDS test in small samples.
本文采用多变量响应面方法分析了应用于一阶GARCH过程的标准化残差时BDS测试的大小失真。结果表明,即使在大样本中,渐近标准正态分布也是一个不可靠的近似。另一方面,对标准化残差的平方进行简单的对数变换似乎可以纠正大多数大小问题。尽管如此,估计的响应面不仅可以提供尺寸失真的测量,而且还可以为小样本的北斗系统测试提供更适当的临界值。
{"title":"The Finite-Sample Size of the BDS Test for GARCH Standardized Residuals","authors":"Marcelo Fernandes, P. Preumont","doi":"10.12660/BRE.V32N22012.18608","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/BRE.V32N22012.18608","url":null,"abstract":"This paper uses a multivariate response surface methodology to analyze the size distortion of the BDS test when applied to standardized residuals of rst-order GARCH processes. The results show that the asymptotic standard normal distribution is an unreliable approximation even in large samples. On the other hand, a simple log-transformation of the squared standardized residuals seems to correct most of the size problems. The estimated response surfaces can nonetheless provide not only a measure of the size distortion, but also more adequate critical values for theBDS test in small samples.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"2 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-05-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128238302","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 5
Prêmio por controle no mercado brasileiro 巴西市场控制权奖
Pub Date : 2014-03-26 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V34N12014.18106
M. Fernandes, V. Souza
This study aims to estimate the control premium in the Brazilian stock market, based on the dual-class price differential. We first show that the average control premium is positive from July 2003 to June 2013. This is in contrast with the extant findings in the literature, which indicate the presence of a voting discount. We then investigate the determinants of the difference in common and preferred share prices. In particular, we examine how the voting premium relates to the relative liquidity, the difference in dividends, the extension of tag along rights to non-voting shares, the issuance of ADR in the New York Stock Exchange, the level of corporate governance, the shareholders’ composition, and the government’s equity participation
本研究的目的是估计巴西股票市场的控制权溢价,基于双层价格差异。我们首先表明,从2003年7月到2013年6月,平均控制溢价为正。这与文献中现有的发现形成对比,这些发现表明存在投票折扣。然后,我们研究了普通股和优先股价格差异的决定因素。特别地,我们研究了表决权溢价与相对流动性、股息差异、无表决权股份的跟随权延伸、纽约证券交易所ADR发行、公司治理水平、股东构成和政府股权参与之间的关系
{"title":"Prêmio por controle no mercado brasileiro","authors":"M. Fernandes, V. Souza","doi":"10.12660/BRE.V34N12014.18106","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/BRE.V34N12014.18106","url":null,"abstract":"This study aims to estimate the control premium in the Brazilian stock market, based on the dual-class price differential. We first show that the average control premium is positive from July 2003 to June 2013. This is in contrast with the extant findings in the literature, which indicate the presence of a voting discount. We then investigate the determinants of the difference in common and preferred share prices. In particular, we examine how the voting premium relates to the relative liquidity, the difference in dividends, the extension of tag along rights to non-voting shares, the issuance of ADR in the New York Stock Exchange, the level of corporate governance, the shareholders’ composition, and the government’s equity participation","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"292 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"117330132","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Forecasting the Brazilian term structure using macroeconomic factors 利用宏观经济因素预测巴西期限结构
Pub Date : 2014-03-26 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V34N12014.16642
Caio Almeida, Adriano Faria
This paper studies the forecasting of the Brazilian interest rate term structure using common factors from a wide database of 171 macroeconomic series, from the period of January 2000 to May 2012. Firstly the model proposed by Moench (2008) was implemented, in which the dynamic of the short term interest rate is modeled using a FAVAR and the term structure is derived using the restrictions implied by no-arbitrage. Similarly to the original study, this model resulted in better predictive performance when compared to the usual benchmarks, but presented deterioration of the results with increased maturity. To avoid this problem, we proposed that the dynamic of each rate be modeled in conjunction with the macroeconomic factors, thus eliminating the no-arbitrage restrictions. This attempt produced superior forecasting results. Finally, the macro factors were inserted in the model proposed by Diebold and Li (2006).
本文从2000年1月至2012年5月的171个宏观经济序列数据库中,利用共同因素对巴西利率期限结构进行了预测研究。首先实现Moench(2008)提出的模型,该模型使用FAVAR对短期利率动态建模,并使用无套利隐含的限制推导出期限结构。与最初的研究类似,与通常的基准测试相比,该模型产生了更好的预测性能,但随着成熟度的增加,结果会恶化。为了避免这个问题,我们建议将每个利率的动态与宏观经济因素结合起来建模,从而消除无套利限制。这一尝试产生了较好的预测结果。最后,在Diebold和Li(2006)提出的模型中插入宏观因素。
{"title":"Forecasting the Brazilian term structure using macroeconomic factors","authors":"Caio Almeida, Adriano Faria","doi":"10.12660/BRE.V34N12014.16642","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/BRE.V34N12014.16642","url":null,"abstract":"This paper studies the forecasting of the Brazilian interest rate term structure using common factors from a wide database of 171 macroeconomic series, from the period of January 2000 to May 2012. Firstly the model proposed by Moench (2008) was implemented, in which the dynamic of the short term interest rate is modeled using a FAVAR and the term structure is derived using the restrictions implied by no-arbitrage. Similarly to the original study, this model resulted in better predictive performance when compared to the usual benchmarks, but presented deterioration of the results with increased maturity. To avoid this problem, we proposed that the dynamic of each rate be modeled in conjunction with the macroeconomic factors, thus eliminating the no-arbitrage restrictions. This attempt produced superior forecasting results. Finally, the macro factors were inserted in the model proposed by Diebold and Li (2006).","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"235 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121669567","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 6
Subnational Government Investment in Brazil: Estimation and Analysis by State Space Models 巴西地方政府投资:国家空间模型的估算与分析
Pub Date : 2014-03-24 DOI: 10.12660/BRE.V33N12013.4076
Rodrigo Octávio Orair, Wesley J. Silva
There are many problems involved in estimating high frequency series for subnational governments. Space State Model (SSM) is a framework capable of handling some of these problems. The techniques that emerge from this approach are used to estimate monthly series for capital investments by subnational governments in Brazil during 2002-2011. SSM are also used to analyze the dynamic properties of time series. One of the most interesting results is the newly evidence of electoral cycles on investments of both municipalities and states in Brazil. These techniques might be easily generalized for other relevant series. The main objective of this work is to present a methodological framework for estimating and analyzing the development of high frequency series for Brazilians subnational governments. It offers a useful instrument for monitoring fiscal policy and for applied macroeconomic research.
在对地方政府进行高频序列估算时,存在许多问题。空间状态模型(SSM)是一个能够处理这些问题的框架。从这种方法中产生的技术被用于估计2002-2011年巴西地方政府资本投资的月度序列。SSM还用于分析时间序列的动态特性。最有趣的结果之一是巴西市政和州投资的选举周期的新证据。这些技术可以很容易地推广到其他相关系列。这项工作的主要目的是提出一个方法框架,用于估计和分析巴西地方政府高频序列的发展。它为监测财政政策和应用宏观经济研究提供了一个有用的工具。
{"title":"Subnational Government Investment in Brazil: Estimation and Analysis by State Space Models","authors":"Rodrigo Octávio Orair, Wesley J. Silva","doi":"10.12660/BRE.V33N12013.4076","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.12660/BRE.V33N12013.4076","url":null,"abstract":"There are many problems involved in estimating high frequency series for subnational governments. Space State Model (SSM) is a framework capable of handling some of these problems. The techniques that emerge from this approach are used to estimate monthly series for capital investments by subnational governments in Brazil during 2002-2011. SSM are also used to analyze the dynamic properties of time series. One of the most interesting results is the newly evidence of electoral cycles on investments of both municipalities and states in Brazil. These techniques might be easily generalized for other relevant series. The main objective of this work is to present a methodological framework for estimating and analyzing the development of high frequency series for Brazilians subnational governments. It offers a useful instrument for monitoring fiscal policy and for applied macroeconomic research.","PeriodicalId":332423,"journal":{"name":"Brazilian Review of Econometrics","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2014-03-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"122255406","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
期刊
Brazilian Review of Econometrics
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1