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RUSSIAN FOREIGN POLICY IN AFGHANISTAN AFTER THE MILITARY COUP OF 2021. STRATEGIC STABILITY AS AN IMPERATIVE 2021年军事政变后俄罗斯在阿富汗的外交政策。战略稳定势在必行
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31696/2227-5568-2022-04-062-075
Areg Petrosyan
. After the military coup in Afghanistan in 2021 there was a need to look anew at the geopolitical significance of the region. In this context, there is an imperative for Russia to build mutually beneficial and stable relations with the new Kabul authorities, given the strategic importance of Afghanistan in Moscow's security architecture (mainly related to Central Asia and threat of terrorism). Besides, the opportunity emerged, against the backdrop of failed US attempts to establish peace in Afghanistan, to achieve long-term stability in Afghanistan and overall, the region through cooperation with the new Afghan government. Having achieved this, Russia will ensure the security of its allies and partners in Central Asia and minimize threats to regional security and regional interests of her.
. 在2021年阿富汗发生军事政变后,有必要重新审视该地区的地缘政治意义。在这种情况下,鉴于阿富汗在莫斯科安全架构中的战略重要性(主要与中亚和恐怖主义威胁有关),俄罗斯必须与新的喀布尔当局建立互利和稳定的关系。此外,在美国试图在阿富汗建立和平的努力失败的背景下,通过与阿富汗新政府的合作,实现阿富汗乃至整个地区的长期稳定也出现了机会。在实现这一目标后,俄罗斯将确保其在中亚的盟友和伙伴的安全,并最大限度地减少对其地区安全和地区利益的威胁。
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引用次数: 0
SOUTH KOREAN PRESS ABOUT EVENTS IN UKRAINE (LATE FEBRUARY – MARCH 2022) 韩国媒体报道乌克兰事件(2022年2月下旬至3月)
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31696/2227-5568-2022-02-051-057
Ruben Kazariyan
The artcle discusses the coverage of the events in Ukraine by the South Korean press in connecton with the start of a special military operaton of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federaton at the end of February 2022.
文章讨论了韩国媒体对乌克兰事件的报道,这些事件与俄罗斯联邦武装部队将于2022年2月底开始的特别军事行动有关。
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引用次数: 0
ISRAEL AND UKRAINIAN CONFLICT 以色列和乌克兰冲突
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31696/2227-5568-2023-02-117-127
T. Karasova
The Israeli leadership's attitude towards the Ukrainian conflict is closely related to the specific internal and foreign policy of the State of Israel. Israel's approach is less strategic and more tactical. Its refusal to extend valuable military assistance to Ukraine is centered on narrow regional operational concerns (in Syria and conflict with Iran) and not on matters of geopolitical positioning. Israel hopes to maintain its partnership with Washington without alienating Moscow. The Jewish state tries to avoid Western pressure to «choose a side» and instead be guided by concrete Israeli interests. Israel relies less on the notion that Israelis should trust Washington to defend their interests but follow self-reliance the consequences to its own defense. Ukrainians have been puffing harsh demands to increase Israeli financial and military support and shift its declaratory policy in favor of Kiev. But Jerusalem clearly aware this step would lead to crossing red lines» marked by Moscow which threatens the Israeli's security interests. Israel takes into account Russian influence in the region and prefers to keep its cooperative ties with Kremlin. Israel remains Washington's closest ally in the Middle East, but Biden administration and collective West expectations that the Israelis government to act like it were mostly not met. Israel has maintained a passive stance on Ukraine despite mounting pressure by Western allies.
以色列领导人对乌克兰冲突的态度与以色列国的具体内政和外交政策密切相关。以色列的做法与其说是战略上的,不如说是战术上的。它拒绝向乌克兰提供宝贵的军事援助,主要是出于狭隘的地区行动关切(在叙利亚和与伊朗的冲突),而不是地缘政治定位问题。以色列希望在不疏远莫斯科的情况下维持与华盛顿的伙伴关系。这个犹太国家试图避开西方“选边站”的压力,而是以以色列的具体利益为导向。以色列较少依赖于以色列应该信任华盛顿来捍卫他们的利益的观念,而是遵循自力更生的原则来捍卫自己的利益。乌克兰人一直在强烈要求以色列增加财政和军事支持,并改变对基辅的政策。但耶路撒冷清楚地意识到,这一步骤将导致越过莫斯科划定的红线,威胁以色列的安全利益。以色列考虑到俄罗斯在该地区的影响力,更愿意与克里姆林宫保持合作关系。以色列仍然是华盛顿在中东最亲密的盟友,但拜登政府和西方集体期望以色列政府表现得像它一样,但大部分都没有实现。尽管西方盟国施加了越来越大的压力,但以色列在乌克兰问题上一直保持被动立场。
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引用次数: 0
TRANSPORT SYSTEM OF AFGHANISTAN: STATE AND PROSPECTS 阿富汗的交通系统:现状与展望
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31696/2227-5568-2021-04-028-042
U. Okimbekov
The article is dedicated to the issues of the state and development of the Afghan land transport network during the period between the collapse and the re-coming to power of the Taliban (2001–2021). It outlines the main achievements of the transport system, the role of international donors in its development, the factors that prevented the achievement of the desired outcomes, the prospects for the development of the industry, taking into account the current political situation.
本文致力于讨论塔利班政权崩溃至重新掌权期间(2001-2021年)阿富汗陆路交通网络的状况和发展问题。它概述了运输系统的主要成就、国际捐助者在运输系统发展中的作用、妨碍实现预期结果的因素、该工业发展的前景,同时考虑到目前的政治局势。
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引用次数: 0
TURKEY’S POSITION AND ROLE IN THE SETTLEMENT OF THE UKRAINIAN CRISIS 土耳其在解决乌克兰危机中的立场和作用
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31696/2227-5568-2022-02-088-094
I. Vedeneev
The study is devoted to the consideraton of the positon and role of Turkey in relaton to the events in Ukraine. It is concluded that the Turkish leadership sees the realizaton of Tur‑ key's natonal interests in carrying out actve mediaton in the negotaton process between Rus‑ sia and Ukraine. From the point of view of the Turkish leadership, Turkey needs to maintain a balance in relatons, on the one hand, with Russia, and, on the other hand, with Ukraine and the West. Turkey's posi‑ ton can be characterized as «benevolent neutrality». Despite President Erdogan's desire to keep Turkey «equidistant» from both Russia and the West (at least in the case of the situaton in Ukraine), the current situaton seems unsustainable. The West (primarily represented by the United States) will contnue to push Turkey to take rash steps against Russia. The reason for this may be the escalaton of tension in Nagorno‑Karabakh or North‑ ern Syria. Another factor may be the 2023 electons in Turkey, as a result of which a pro‑Western government (coaliton) may come to power in the country.
该研究报告专门审议了土耳其在乌克兰事件中的立场和作用。结论是,土耳其领导人认为在俄罗斯和乌克兰之间的谈判进程中进行积极的调解是土耳其国家利益的实现。从土耳其领导层的角度来看,土耳其需要在关系上保持平衡,一方面是与俄罗斯的关系,另一方面是与乌克兰和西方的关系。土耳其的立场可以被描述为“仁慈的中立”。尽管埃尔多安总统希望土耳其与俄罗斯和西方保持“等距”(至少在乌克兰的情况下),但目前的局势似乎是不可持续的。西方(主要以美国为代表)将继续推动土耳其对俄罗斯采取鲁莽的措施。其原因可能是纳戈尔诺-卡拉巴赫或叙利亚北部的紧张局势升级。另一个因素可能是土耳其2023年的选举,结果是亲西方政府(联合政府)可能在该国掌权。
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引用次数: 0
DYNAMICS AND PROPORTIONS OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF JAPAN’S FINANCIAL SECTOR IN THE 21st CENTURY 21世纪日本金融业发展的动态与比例
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31696/2227-5568-2021-01-083-99
Nikita Lazyuk
The article discusses the main specifics of the development of Japanese financial market over the past 20 years. In addition to empirical analysis of the main indicators of the dynamics of the banking and stock markets, the volatility of the loan portfolio of the so-called city and regional banks is calculated using the data from open sources. Risk and return assessments are performed for the stock market based on the CAPM model. Based on quantitative and qualitative estimates, it is concluded that a number of imbalances in the financial sector have been built up, but they have been partially offset by certain positive trends.
本文论述了日本金融市场近20年来发展的主要特点。除了对银行和股票市场动态的主要指标进行实证分析外,还使用公开来源的数据计算了所谓的城市和区域银行贷款组合的波动性。基于CAPM模型对股票市场进行了风险和收益评估。根据数量和质量的估计,得出的结论是,金融部门的一些不平衡已经形成,但它们已被某些积极趋势部分抵消。
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引用次数: 0
WORLD ECONOMIC RELATIONS IN THE MINING AND METALLURGY: ASIAN AND NORTH AFRICAN COUNTRIES AND UKRAINE 世界矿冶经济关系:亚洲和北非国家及乌克兰
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31696/2227-5568-2022-03-052-060
E. Rastyannikova
The article analyzes the situation on the world market of mining resources. The impact of demand for metallurgical raw materials from Asian countries has been assessed. It is shown that Asian countries in the conditions of rapid urbanization and the development of infrastructure facilities will show an increasing demand for resources for the metallurgical industry. The influence of the mining and metallurgical complex of Ukraine on the world market of iron ore and ferrous metals is investigated. Ukraine's largest exports were ferrous metals and iron ore, which accounted for 28% of all export revenue over the past three years. The main countries buying iron ore were China and the EU countries. Iron and steel went to Turkey, China, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and EU countries. The current situation in the mining and metallurgical industry of Ukraine will affect world economic relations in general. There may be a shortage of iron ore and ferrous metals on the world market, Turkey, Egypt, Viet Nam may be in the most vulnerable position.
文章分析了世界矿产资源市场的形势。对亚洲国家对冶金原料需求的影响进行了评估。研究表明,在快速城市化和基础设施发展的条件下,亚洲国家对冶金工业资源的需求将越来越大。调查了乌克兰的采矿和冶金联合体对世界铁矿石和黑色金属市场的影响。乌克兰最大的出口产品是黑色金属和铁矿石,占过去三年全部出口收入的28%。购买铁矿石的主要国家是中国和欧盟国家。钢铁出口到土耳其、中国、沙特阿拉伯、埃及和欧盟国家。乌克兰矿业和冶金工业的现状将影响到整个世界经济关系。世界市场上的铁矿石和黑色金属可能出现短缺,土耳其、埃及、越南可能处于最脆弱的地位。
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引用次数: 0
«БРАТСКИЕ» ТРУДОВЫЕ МИГРАЦИИ: СКАНДИНАВСКИЙ ОПЫТ
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31696/2227-5568-2023-01-125-142
Aleksei Sarabiev
Анализируется феномен трудовой иммиграции из стран внутри одного и того же региона – Скандинавии, где проживают близкие по историческому происхождению народы. В литературе такие лица характеризуются как «не совсем» мигранты, и автор предлагает ввести понятие «братских миграций». Наряду с иммиграцией разных видов из стран Глобального Юга и Востока, такие миграции имеют мощное экономическое воздействие на принимающее общество, а набор проблем социокультурной адаптации таких трудовых иммигрантов имеет свои особенности, связанные со сходной языковой и историко-культурной идентичностью. Объектом анализа выступают три страны Скандинавии. Их миграционный опыт может быть востребован при выявлении проблем адаптации, а также степени экономического воздействия на города России, особенно в последние годы, когда многие жители Донбасса выезжали в российские районы с целью краткосрочного заработка или на долгое время – в том числе руководствуясь и вопросом безопасности. Вопросы адаптации таких мигрантов остаются и после присоединения новых российских территорий, поскольку «братские» миграции (например, белорусов, молдаван, украинцев), очевидно, продолжаться. Опыт, который накоплен скандинавскими странами в отношении такого рода «братских» миграций, может пригодиться как в плане влияния на экономику городов, так и в плане разрешения вопросов, возникающих в ходе социально- экономической интеграции иммигрантов – как «явных» (с сильно выраженными «восточными» и «южными» чертами), так и неотличимых фенотипически от местного населения.
来自同一地区的国家——斯堪的纳维亚——的劳工移民现象正在被分析。在文献中,这些人被描述为“不完全”移民,作者提出了“兄弟移民”的概念。除了来自全球南部和东部的不同物种的移民外,这些移民对接受社会具有强大的经济影响,而这些劳工移民的社会文化适应问题具有相似的语言和历史文化认同。分析对象是斯堪的纳维亚的三个国家。他们的移民经验可以用来确定适应问题以及经济影响俄罗斯城市的程度,特别是在最近几年,许多顿巴斯人前往俄罗斯地区短期或长期——包括在安全问题上。适应这些移民的问题仍然存在,因为“兄弟”移民(如白俄罗斯、摩尔多瓦、乌克兰)显然还在继续。斯堪的纳维亚国家在这类“兄弟”移民问题上所取得的经验对城市经济的影响和解决移民社会和经济一体化所产生的问题都是有用的——无论是明显的(有强烈的“东方”和“南方”特征的),还是在表现型上都无法区分的。
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引用次数: 0
ПРОТЕСТЫ В МОНГОЛИИ 2022 ГОДА И РЕАКЦИЯ ВЛАСТЕЙ НА НИХ: ДЕМОКРАТИЯ КОНСЕНСУСА ЭЛИТ? 2022年蒙古的抗议和当局对抗议的反应:精英共识的民主?
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31696/2227-5568-2023-01-104-111
Boris Kushkhov
Изучается опыт реакции ключевых органов власти в Монголии на массовые протесты населения, состоявшиеся в декабре 2022 года. Рассматривается комплекс мер, принятых для ограничения коррупционной деятельности в стране, а также риторику выступлений президента, премьер-министра, а также депутатских групп Великого Государственного Хурала с целью оценки степени инициативности и эффективности ключевых политических институтов при решении острых и актуальных проблем, с которыми сталкивается государство и общество. Прослеживается поверхностный и ситуационный характер ответных мер, принятых органами государственной власти, а также их нацеленность на умиротворение протестующих, а не на долгосрочную борьбу с системной коррупцией. Делается вывод о стремлении монгольских политиков поддерживать «статус-кво» в распределении политических полномочий между органами власти, об их неспособности эффективно бороться с коррупцией – как в силу интересов отдельных групп, так и из-за ряда особенностей политической системы Монголии, которая не приспособлена к резкому и оперативному реагированию на подобные кризисы. Делается вывод об утверждении в монгольском государственном аппарате системы «сдержек и противовесов», исключающих возможность активного реагирования на подобные кризисы, с целью недопущения пересмотра установленного «статус-кво» между политическими элитами. Исходя из этого можно говорить о том, что «демократическая» политическая система всё ещё находится в стадии своего становления.
正在研究蒙古关键当局对2022年12月发生的大规模抗议活动的反应。考虑采取一系列措施来限制该国的腐败活动,以及总统、总理以及大乌拉尔州议会团体的言辞,以评估国家和社会面临的紧迫问题中关键政治制度的主动和有效性。政府反应的表面和情况表明,它们的目标是安抚抗议者,而不是长期打击系统性腐败。人们得出的结论是,蒙古政客在政治权力分配中维持“现状”的愿望,以及他们无力有效地打击腐败——无论是出于个人利益还是出于蒙古政治制度的某些方面,都不适合对这些危机做出尖锐而迅速的反应。蒙古国政府的制衡机制的结论是,它排除了对此类危机采取积极反应的可能性,以防止政治精英之间对现状的修正。因此,可以说,“民主”政治制度仍处于起步阶段。
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引用次数: 0
2021 IRANIAN PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION 2021年伊朗总统大选
Pub Date : 1900-01-01 DOI: 10.31696/2227-5568-2021-02-053-063
E. Dunaeva
This article analyzes the situation in Iran on the eve of the presidential elections of 2021. Preparations for the election campaign took place in the context of the deepening economic crisis caused by the US sanctions after their withdrawal from the JCPOA, as well as the pandemic of coronavirus. The deterioration of the material situation of the population led to a denial of confidence in liberal forces, an increase in the mood of hopelessness and their political indifference. The difficult situation was taken advantage of by conservative forces, which have managed to strengthen their position in power in recent years. The Guardian Council, having prevented a number of well-known politicians to participate in the elections, actually ensured the victory of the Head of the Judiciary, E. Raisi. The unprecedented low turnout indicates an increase in Iranians’ dissatisfaction with the Islamic regime, which has ignored the democratic foundations laid down by the constitution and strengthened theocratic principles.
本文分析了伊朗在2021年总统选举前夕的局势。此次大选的准备工作是在美国退出《全面协议》后实施的制裁和新冠肺炎疫情导致的经济危机加剧的背景下进行的。人民物质状况的恶化导致人们对自由主义力量失去信心,绝望情绪和政治冷漠情绪增加。保守势力利用了这一困难局面,近年来成功地巩固了他们的权力地位。监护委员会阻止了一些著名的政治家参加选举,实际上却确保了司法部长E. Raisi的胜利。前所未有的低投票率表明伊朗人对伊斯兰政权的不满有所增加,该政权忽视了宪法所奠定的民主基础,并加强了神权原则。
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引用次数: 0
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Eastern Analytics
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