Global Transitions最新文献_第3页

Effective COVID-19 preventive measures for Thai residents in environmental risk areas and significant determinants of self-preventive behaviors 环境风险地区泰国居民有效的COVID-19预防措施和自我预防行为的重要决定因素

Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.glt.2025.02.002

Weerawat Ounsaneha , Orapin Laosee , Piyapong Janmaimool , Thunwadee Tachapattaworakul Suksaroj , Cheerawit Rattanapan

This study aimed to identify effective COVID-19 preventive measures and significant determinants of self-preventive behaviors (SPBs) among Thais residing in environmental risk area. The populations comprised 1130 residents from five province located in the highest level of environmental risk exposure area in Thailand. A structured questionnaire was employed to indicate the COVID-19 preventive behaviors. The difference of preventive behaviors between COVID-19 positive and negative residents was analyzed using the t-test and then significant determinants of SPBs were examined using path analysis. The results showed that of 9 SPBs, 5 types including wearing facial masks, keeping social distancing, practicing hand washing, avoiding contacting people with COVID symptoms and using alcohol or hand sanitizer spray among noninfected participants were higher than among COVID-19 positive participants. For the result of path analysis, trust and attitude toward adherence to preventive behaviors was indicated as the greatest direct effect on SPBs. In addition, trust in the government's recommendations for self-prevention and knowledge about self-prevention had the most and second most total effects on SPBs, respectively. This finding suggested that effective COVID-19 measures of SPBs among residents were recommended by the Thai government with daily broadcasts on public television and social media. The combined concepts of infectious control and environmental management could be implemented to effectively control cases in highly polluted cities to improve resilience related to COVID-19 prevention.

本研究旨在确定居住在环境风险地区的泰国人有效的COVID-19预防措施和自我预防行为（SPBs）的重要决定因素。这些人口包括来自泰国环境风险暴露程度最高地区的五个省的1130名居民。采用结构化问卷调查方式，对新冠肺炎预防行为进行问卷调查。采用t检验分析COVID-19阳性和阴性居民预防行为的差异，然后采用通径分析检查spb的显著决定因素。结果显示，在9项防范措施中，未感染人群中戴口罩、保持社交距离、勤洗手、避免接触有新冠肺炎症状的人、使用酒精或洗手液喷雾等5项防范措施的比例高于阳性人群。通径分析结果显示，信任和对遵守预防行为的态度对spb的直接影响最大。此外，对政府自我预防建议的信任和对自我预防知识的了解对spb的总体影响分别最大和第二。这一发现表明，泰国政府建议在居民中采取有效的COVID-19措施，每天在公共电视和社交媒体上播出。实施传染病控制与环境管理相结合的理念，有效控制高污染城市病例，提高防控韧性。

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引用次数: 0

Exposure to surface ozone and its associated health effects and economic burden in India 印度地表臭氧暴露及其相关的健康影响和经济负担

Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.glt.2025.03.002

G.S. Gopikrishnan , T.S. Ardra , J. Kuttippurath

Surface ozone is a secondary air pollutant and when its exposure exceeds the threshold of 70 μg/m³ for 8 h, it can make adverse health effects. This study assesses surface ozone pollution in India using satellite and ground-based measurements. The exposure to surface ozone varies between seasons, from a pre-monsoon (March, April, and May) maximum (30–50 μg/m³) to a monsoon (June, July, August, and September) minimum (<25 μg/m³). However, there are many regions with ozone exceeding an exposure threshold of 70 μg/m³. This results in about 29000 mortalities in 45 out of 220 Indian cities based on the ground-based measurements considered. Estimates of mortality related to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) and Ischemic Heart Disease (IHD) show a total of about 51154 deaths for the year 2022 as deduced from the satellite measurements. Also, the economic burden of premature mortality from ozone exposure is 16.83 billion USD, which is about 1.5 times the health budget of India in 2022. Therefore, it is imperative to address surface ozone pollution to ensure economic stability, protect public health and mitigate climate change.

地表臭氧是一种二次大气污染物，当其暴露超过70 μg/m3的阈值8 h时，可对人体健康产生不良影响。本研究利用卫星和地面测量评估了印度的地表臭氧污染。地表臭氧暴露随季节变化，季风前（3、4、5月）最大（30 ~ 50 μg/m3），季风期（6、7、8、9月）最小（25 μg/m3）。然而，有许多地区臭氧超过70 μg/m3的暴露阈值。根据所考虑的地面测量结果，这导致印度220个城市中的45个城市约29000人死亡。对慢性阻塞性肺病（COPD）和缺血性心脏病（IHD）相关死亡率的估计显示，根据卫星测量推断，到2022年，总共约有51154人死亡。此外，臭氧暴露导致过早死亡的经济负担为168.3亿美元，约为印度2022年卫生预算的1.5倍。因此，必须解决地表臭氧污染问题，以确保经济稳定、保护公众健康和减缓气候变化。

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引用次数: 0

The role of carbon peaking targets in urban green economic transition: Insights from U.S. city-level climate action plans 碳峰值目标在城市绿色经济转型中的作用：来自美国城市层面气候行动计划的见解

Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.glt.2025.01.002

Nihal Ahmed , Nisar Ahmed Khan , Józef Ober

Carbon peak targets play a crucial role in the global effort to mitigate climate change, with profound implications for green and sustainable economic growth. This research explores the dynamics between carbon peak target policies and urban low-carbon development using a novel delegation-agency framework between central and local governments. Analyzing data from U.S. climate action plans spanning 2010–2020, we employ an advanced difference-in-differences approach to elucidate the causal impact of carbon peak targets on low-carbon transitions. Our findings demonstrate a significant positive correlation between the adoption of these targets and accelerated low-carbon development, with effects modulated by local economic structures, resource availability, and governance transitions. The robustness of these results is rigorously validated through a comprehensive series of tests, including placebo experiments, policy interference controls, and heterogeneity bias assessments. Further investigation reveals that carbon peak targets primarily function through two key mechanisms: stimulating eco-innovation and catalyzing green infrastructure investments. Notably, our analysis uncovers an inverse relationship between target timeline stringency and low-carbon transition effectiveness. This study advances the field by offering a unified theoretical framework for analyzing local government constraints and carbon peak targets, conducting granular city-level analyses, and exploring the nuanced impacts of policy design features. Our findings suggest several policy prescriptions, including recalibrating municipal performance metrics, advocating for flexible target frameworks, and fostering synergies between environmental policies and innovation ecosystems. These insights provide valuable guidance for policymakers aiming to optimize climate strategies and accelerate the transition to a sustainable, low-carbon economy.

碳峰值目标在全球减缓气候变化的努力中发挥着至关重要的作用，对绿色和可持续的经济增长有着深远的影响。本研究采用一种新颖的中央和地方政府委托代理框架，探讨了碳峰值目标政策与城市低碳发展之间的动态关系。通过分析美国2010-2020年气候行动计划的数据，我们采用了一种先进的差异中的差异方法来阐明碳峰值目标对低碳转型的因果影响。我们的研究结果表明，采用这些目标与加速低碳发展之间存在显著的正相关关系，其影响受当地经济结构、资源可用性和治理转型的调节。通过一系列全面的测试，包括安慰剂实验、政策干预控制和异质性偏倚评估，严格验证了这些结果的稳健性。进一步的研究表明，碳峰值目标主要通过两个关键机制发挥作用：刺激生态创新和催化绿色基础设施投资。值得注意的是，我们的分析揭示了目标时间表严格性与低碳转型有效性之间的反比关系。本研究通过提供统一的理论框架来分析地方政府约束和碳峰值目标，进行细化的城市层面分析，并探索政策设计特征的细微影响，推动了该领域的发展。我们的研究结果提出了一些政策建议，包括重新校准市政绩效指标，倡导灵活的目标框架，以及促进环境政策和创新生态系统之间的协同作用。这些见解为旨在优化气候战略和加速向可持续低碳经济转型的政策制定者提供了有价值的指导。

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引用次数: 0

Impact of CO2 emissions, income, and urbanization on health status in GCC countries: A moderating role of energy consumption 二氧化碳排放、收入和城市化对海湾合作委员会国家健康状况的影响：能源消耗的调节作用

Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.glt.2025.04.005

Hatem Hatef Abdulkadhim Altaee , Fakher Rahim , Kenesh Dzhusupov , Karlygash Toguzbaeva

Life expectancy is often considered the most effective measure for evaluating a nation's health status. In light of this, the study investigates the impact of carbon dioxide emissions on life expectancy in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries, controlling for economic growth (GDPpc), energy consumption, and urbanization between 1990 and 2020. To ensure the validity and reliability of the findings, the study employs a robust methodology, including Unit Root, cross-sectional dependence tests, and the novel method of moments quantile regression. The findings were further validated through additional models such as Fully Modified Ordinary Least Square, Panel-Corrected Standard Error, and Feasible Generalized Least Square, which ensure the robustness of the results. The estimation results consistently reveal an inverse relationship between CO₂ emissions and life expectancy, underscoring the negative health impacts of environmental degradation. In contrast, GDP per capita, urbanization, and energy consumption contribute positively to life expectancy. The study also identifies energy consumption as a mediator that exacerbates the negative effects of CO₂ emissions on health outcomes in the GCC. Overall, the study's conclusions are sound and based on comprehensive statistical tests, indicating high validity and reliability. However, the study's completeness is somewhat limited as it excludes potential health determinants such as healthcare quality and lifestyle factors, which could introduce omitted variable bias. Nonetheless, the results offer compelling insights for GCC policymakers, recommending immediate actions to reduce CO₂ emissions and prioritize clean energy to improve health outcomes in alignment with Sustainable Development Goal 3.

预期寿命通常被认为是评估一个国家健康状况的最有效措施。有鉴于此，本研究调查了二氧化碳排放对海湾合作委员会国家预期寿命的影响，并控制了 1990 年至 2020 年期间的经济增长（GDPpc）、能源消耗和城市化。为确保研究结果的有效性和可靠性，本研究采用了稳健的方法，包括单位根、横截面依赖性测试和新颖的矩量回归方法。通过完全修正普通最小二乘法、面板校正标准误差和可行广义最小二乘法等其他模型进一步验证了研究结果，确保了结果的稳健性。估算结果一致显示，二氧化碳排放量与预期寿命之间存在反比关系，凸显了环境退化对健康的负面影响。相比之下，人均国内生产总值、城市化和能源消耗则对预期寿命有积极影响。研究还发现，能源消耗是加剧海合会国家二氧化碳排放对健康结果负面影响的中介因素。总体而言，该研究的结论是合理的，并以全面的统计测试为基础，显示出较高的有效性和可靠性。不过，研究的完整性受到一定限制，因为它排除了潜在的健康决定因素，如医疗质量和生活方式因素，这可能会带来遗漏变量偏差。尽管如此，研究结果还是为海湾合作委员会的政策制定者提供了令人信服的见解，建议立即采取行动，减少二氧化碳排放，优先使用清洁能源，以改善健康状况，实现可持续发展目标 3。

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引用次数: 0

Benefits and impact of technology-enhanced learning applications in higher education in Middle East and North Africa: A systematic review 中东和北非高等教育中技术增强学习应用的效益和影响：系统综述

Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.glt.2025.06.004

Nada Eltaiba , Samira Hosseini , Kingsley Okoye

Technology-enhanced learning (TEL) uses digital tools and technologies to improve learning experiences by addressing educational challenges such as accessibility, equity, and quality. There is evidence that it comes with issues like digital divide, limited infrastructure, socio-technical and cultural challenges, particularly in low-and-middle income or low-tech regions like Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This study explores the benefits and impact of TEL, and extent to its application in higher education in the MENA region. A systematic review using PRISMA methodology identified and analyzed 85 peer-reviewed studies from 2015 to 2024. Scholarly search for articles was done using Scopus and Web of Science (WoS) databases. Data analysis used trend analysis, geographical distribution, and thematic synthesis of TEL benefits, challenges, and implementation in MENA through methods such as Concept mapping and Text mining in VOSviewer, Tableau, and R statistics software. The results emphasize the transformative potential of TEL in MENA, but identifies critical research gaps, such as limited longitudinal studies, underexplored MENA contexts, limited training for educators, which hinders equitable adoption, and need for comprehensive strategies to address systemic barriers. TEL adoption varied across the MENA region, with resource-rich and high-tech countries leading the TEL integration process driven by national policies and strategic investment, while underrepresented nations face significant barriers, which require targeted interventions. The paper empirically sheds light on the theoretical and practical implications of the study toward effective application and adoption of TEL-based learning in MENA, expanding geographic or sectoral coverage, prioritizing of stakeholder perspectives, and exploring advanced TEL technologies to ensure inclusive and sustainable educational practices.

技术增强型学习（TEL）利用数字工具和技术，通过解决可及性、公平性和质量等教育挑战，改善学习体验。有证据表明，它带来了诸如数字鸿沟、基础设施有限、社会技术和文化挑战等问题，特别是在中东和北非（MENA）等中低收入或低技术地区。本研究探讨了电话教学的好处和影响，以及它在中东和北非地区高等教育中的应用程度。一项使用PRISMA方法的系统综述确定并分析了2015年至2024年的85项同行评议研究。论文的学术搜索使用Scopus和Web of Science （WoS）数据库完成。数据分析通过VOSviewer、Tableau和R统计软件中的概念映射和文本挖掘等方法，使用趋势分析、地理分布和专题综合，分析了中东和北非地区TEL的利益、挑战和实施情况。研究结果强调了TEL在中东和北非地区的变革潜力，但也指出了关键的研究差距，如纵向研究有限、对中东和北非地区背景的探索不足、对教育工作者的培训有限（这阻碍了公平采用），以及需要制定全面的战略来解决系统性障碍。在中东和北非地区，电信的采用情况各不相同，资源丰富和高科技的国家在国家政策和战略投资的推动下引领着电信一体化进程，而代表性不足的国家则面临重大障碍，需要有针对性的干预措施。本文从实证角度阐述了该研究的理论和实践意义，包括在中东和北非地区有效应用和采用基于TEL的学习，扩大地理或部门覆盖范围，优先考虑利益相关者的观点，探索先进的TEL技术，以确保包容性和可持续的教育实践。

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引用次数: 0

Model for assessing environmental sustainability performance in the agricultural sector: A case study on plantain cultivation 农业部门环境可持续性绩效评估模型：以大蕉种植为例

Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.glt.2025.04.001

Alexis Rojas Ospina , Alexander Zúñiga Collazos

This study develops and validates a structural model to assess the relationship between agricultural activity (AA) and Environmental Sustainability Performance (ESP). The model was empirically tested in plantain crops in Valle del Cauca, Colombia, using structural equation modeling (SEM) to examine causal relationships among key sustainability factors. Data were collected through a structured 28-item instrument applied to 600 administrators, managers, and owners of Agricultural Production Units (APUs). The analysis, conducted using partial least squares SEM (PLS-SEM) in SmartPLS 4.0, reveals that Business Associativity (BA), Agricultural Management (AM), Citizen Participation (CP), and Information and Communication Technologies (ICTs) have a direct and positive effect on ESP. Moreover, significant indirect effects are observed between ICTs and AM, ICTs and CP, and AM and BA, highlighting their interconnected influence on ESP. These findings emphasize the strategic role of associativity, management practices, digital transformation, and civic engagement in enhancing sustainability outcomes. The study provides actionable insights for policymakers and stakeholders, advocating for targeted interventions and data-driven policies to foster sustainable agricultural practices.

本研究建立并验证了一个评估农业活动（AA）与环境可持续性绩效（ESP）关系的结构模型。采用结构方程模型（SEM）对哥伦比亚考卡谷的大蕉作物进行了实证检验，分析了关键可持续性因素之间的因果关系。数据是通过一个结构化的28项工具收集的，该工具应用于农业生产单位（apu）的600名行政人员、经理和所有者。在SmartPLS 4.0中使用偏最小二乘扫描电镜（PLS-SEM）进行的分析表明，商业关联（BA）、农业管理（AM）、公民参与（CP）和信息通信技术（ict）对ESP有直接和积极的影响。此外，信息通信技术与AM、ict与CP、AM与BA之间存在显著的间接影响，突出了它们对ESP的相互影响。管理实践、数字化转型和公民参与促进可持续发展成果。该研究为政策制定者和利益相关者提供了可操作的见解，倡导有针对性的干预措施和数据驱动的政策，以促进可持续农业实践。

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引用次数: 0

Mindscapes and landscapes: Framing planetary health education and pedagogy for sustainable development in Africa 思维景观和景观：为非洲可持续发展构建全球卫生教育和教学法

Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.glt.2025.02.004

Bob O. Manteaw , Kirk B. Enu

This paper explores the urgent need for reconceptualization of education and learning in Africa within the framework of planetary health as a critical response to the escalating environmental and health crises. It argues that the current planetary crisis, marked by harmful climate change impacts, ecological degradation and the disruption of natural systems, is not only an environmental or health issue but also a crisis of the mind—knowledge, education and cognition. The paper critiques the dominant educational paradigms in Africa, which are heavily influenced by human-centered colonial educational legacies that often ignore the interconnectedness of human and non-human systems. In mindscapes and landscapes, therefore, the paper foregrounds the disconnect between human actions on nature and the integrity of natural systems. The paper advocates for a transformational educational paradigm that integrates Indigenous knowledge Systems while highlighting the value of non-human systems beyond their economic utility. It proposes the adoption of a planetary health education approach that promotes systems thinking, ecological mindfulness and the mutuality between humans and the natural environment as determinants of health and wellbeing. This approach, the paper argues, is essential for fostering sustainable development practices that emphasize the integrity of natural systems, as well as equipping learners with the knowledge, skills and competencies needed to address the complex challenges of the Anthropocene. The paper calls on higher education institutions in Africa to show leadership through intentional educational and pedagogical transformations that embed Planetary Health concepts and concerns in cross-curricular and transdisciplinary learning processes to challenge dominant narratives of human-centered development obsessions.

本文探讨了迫切需要在全球健康框架内重新构想非洲的教育和学习，作为对不断升级的环境和健康危机的关键反应。报告认为，以有害的气候变化影响、生态退化和自然系统破坏为标志的当前地球危机不仅是一个环境或健康问题，而且是一个心灵危机——知识、教育和认知。本文批评了非洲的主流教育模式，这些模式受到以人为中心的殖民教育遗产的严重影响，往往忽视了人类和非人类系统的相互联系。因此，在思维景观和景观中，本文强调了人类对自然的行为与自然系统完整性之间的脱节。本文提倡一种转型的教育范式，该范式整合了土著知识系统，同时强调了非人类系统在其经济效用之外的价值。它建议采用一种全球健康教育方法，促进系统思维、生态意识以及人类与自然环境之间的相互关系，将其作为健康和福祉的决定因素。这篇论文认为，这种方法对于促进强调自然系统完整性的可持续发展实践，以及为学习者提供应对人类世复杂挑战所需的知识、技能和能力至关重要。该文件呼吁非洲的高等教育机构通过有意的教育和教学改革来发挥领导作用，将行星健康的概念和关切纳入跨学科和跨学科的学习过程，挑战以人为中心的发展观念的主导叙述。

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引用次数: 0

Exploring the impact of globalization and economic-energy dynamics on environmental sustainability in the EU 探讨全球化和经济能源动态对欧盟环境可持续性的影响

Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.glt.2024.12.002

Aura Girlovan, Cristiana Tudor, Gabriel Robert Saiu, Daniel Dumitru Guse

This paper investigates the determinants of environmental sustainability by analyzing the impact of various economic, fiscal, and energy-related variables on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy intensity (EI) across 27 European Union member states from 2005 to 2022. Using dynamic panel data analysis through the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, we explore how key factors such as GDP per capita growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investments (PI), trade openness (TO), and stock market performance (SMP) influence environmental outcomes. Additionally, the analysis examines the role of fiscal policies, represented by government deficit/surplus (GDT), and energy-related factors, such as renewable energy consumption (REC) and research and development expenditure (ERD), in shaping sustainability. The findings reveal that while GDP growth correlates positively with increased GHG emissions, it negatively impacts energy intensity, suggesting that economic expansion may drive emissions upward while concurrently promoting greater energy efficiency. Trade openness significantly mitigates GHG emissions, indicating that enhanced international trade facilitates access to cleaner technologies. The effects of FDI and PI present a more ambivalent picture, often associated with elevated GHG emissions in the absence of stringent regulatory frameworks. Notably, renewable energy adoption emerges as a critical driver of sustainability, effectively mitigating the environmental impacts of globalization. This study provides valuable insights into the complex interplay between economic globalization and environmental sustainability, offering actionable policy recommendations to align economic growth with the EU's long-term environmental objectives.

本文通过分析2005年至2022年欧盟27个成员国的各种经济、财政和能源相关变量对温室气体（GHG）排放和能源强度（EI）的影响，探讨了环境可持续性的决定因素。通过系统广义矩量法（GMM）估计器，采用动态面板数据分析，我们探讨了人均GDP增长、外国直接投资（FDI）、证券投资（PI）、贸易开放（TO）和股票市场表现（SMP）等关键因素如何影响环境结果。此外，该分析还考察了财政政策（以政府赤字/盈余（GDT）为代表）和能源相关因素（如可再生能源消费（REC）和研发支出（ERD））在塑造可持续性方面的作用。研究结果表明，虽然GDP增长与温室气体排放增加呈正相关，但它对能源强度产生负面影响，这表明经济扩张可能会推动排放上升，同时促进更高的能源效率。贸易开放显著减轻了温室气体排放，表明加强国际贸易有助于获得更清洁的技术。FDI和PI的影响呈现出一种更加矛盾的局面，往往与缺乏严格监管框架的温室气体排放增加有关。值得注意的是，可再生能源的采用成为可持续发展的关键驱动力，有效地减轻了全球化对环境的影响。本研究对经济全球化与环境可持续性之间复杂的相互作用提供了有价值的见解，为使经济增长与欧盟的长期环境目标保持一致提供了可行的政策建议。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the impact of sustainability risks on disaster and pandemic vulnerabilities: A global perspective 评估可持续性风险对灾害和大流行病脆弱性的影响：全球视角

Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.glt.2025.03.001

Abroon Qazi , Linda C. Angell , Mecit Can Emre Simsekler , Abdelkader Daghfous , M.K.S. Al-Mhdawi

This study examines the impact of failing to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) on disaster and pandemic vulnerabilities, providing a country-level perspective to inform resilience planning. The study introduces the concept of SDG-related risk, defined as the probability of not achieving the desired SDG, and classifies these risks into three categories: high, medium, and low. Using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) framework, two probabilistic models are developed to evaluate the influence of SDG performance on disaster risk and COVID-19 vulnerability across 165 countries. The results highlight that shortcomings in SDGs such as ‘quality education’, ‘sustainable cities and communities’, ‘no poverty’, and ‘affordable and clean energy’ significantly increase disaster and pandemic risks. Conversely, strong performance in ‘peace, justice and strong institutions’ and ‘life on land’ enhances systemic resilience. Countries with very high disaster risk are particularly exposed to deficiencies in SDGs related to ‘peace, justice and strong institutions’, ‘sustainable cities and communities’, and ‘good health and well-being’. For COVID-19 risk, ‘affordable and clean energy’ emerges as the most critical SDG influencing high-risk exposure, whereas ‘climate action’ is pivotal in predicting low-risk states. These findings demonstrate the cascading risks posed by failing to achieve critical SDGs and emphasize the need for targeted interventions to mitigate vulnerabilities to disasters and pandemics, providing actionable insights for sustainable resilience strategies.

本研究考察了未能实现可持续发展目标（sdg）对灾害和大流行病脆弱性的影响，为韧性规划提供了国家层面的视角。该研究引入了可持续发展目标相关风险的概念，将其定义为无法实现预期可持续发展目标的概率，并将这些风险分为高、中、低三类。利用贝叶斯信念网络（BBN）框架，开发了两个概率模型，以评估165个国家的可持续发展目标绩效对灾害风险和COVID-19脆弱性的影响。结果表明，“优质教育”、“可持续城市和社区”、“无贫困”和“负担得起的清洁能源”等可持续发展目标的不足显著增加了灾害和流行病风险。相反，在“和平、正义和强有力的制度”和“陆上生活”方面的良好表现增强了系统的复原力。灾害风险极高的国家在“和平、正义和强有力的机构”、“可持续城市和社区”以及“良好的健康和福祉”等可持续发展目标方面尤其存在不足。对于COVID-19风险，“负担得起的清洁能源”成为影响高风险暴露的最关键的可持续发展目标，而“气候行动”在预测低风险状态方面至关重要。这些调查结果表明，未能实现关键的可持续发展目标会带来连锁风险，并强调需要采取有针对性的干预措施，以减轻对灾害和流行病的脆弱性，为可持续复原力战略提供可操作的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, food and human health security in developing countries 应对气候变化对发展中国家农业生产力、粮食和人类健康安全的影响

Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.glt.2025.07.002

Fatima Azdagaz , Omar Zirari , Mariem Liouaeddine

This study examines climate change impacts on agricultural productivity and human health across 20 developing countries (2000–2020) using Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel-ARDL) methodology. Our systems approach models dynamic relationships between climate variables, food production, and nutritional outcomes, addressing multicollinearity through variance inflation tests and alternative specifications. National carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions serve as proxies for multiple climate pathways including temperature variations and economic development patterns affecting food systems. Results reveal strong negative long-run relationships between CO₂ emissions and food production, with positive associations with child stunting. The Pooled Mean Group estimator demonstrates homogeneous long-run coefficients while allowing heterogeneous short-term dynamics across countries. The paradoxical positive CO₂-food insecurity relationship reflects greater climate stresses and inequitable benefit distribution in higher-emission countries. Health impacts exhibit greater persistence than production shocks, emphasizing comprehensive monitoring needs. Findings suggest integrated policies combining climate mitigation, productivity enhancement, and health system strengthening for resilient food systems.

本研究采用面板自回归分布滞后（Panel- ardl）方法考察了气候变化对20个发展中国家（2000-2020年）农业生产力和人类健康的影响。我们的系统方法模拟气候变量、粮食生产和营养结果之间的动态关系，通过方差膨胀测试和替代规范解决多重共线性问题。国家二氧化碳（CO2）排放量可作为多种气候途径的代用指标，包括影响粮食系统的温度变化和经济发展模式。研究结果显示，二氧化碳排放与粮食生产之间存在长期的负相关关系，而与儿童发育迟缓呈正相关关系。混合平均组估计器显示了同质的长期系数，同时允许不同国家之间的异质短期动态。二氧化碳与粮食不安全的矛盾正关系反映了高排放国家更大的气候压力和不公平的利益分配。健康影响比生产冲击更持久，强调全面监测的需要。研究结果建议采取综合政策，将减缓气候变化、提高生产力和加强卫生系统相结合，以建立有抵御力的粮食系统。

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引用次数: 0