Global Transitions最新文献

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IF 3.1 Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01

引用次数: 0

IF 3.1 Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01

引用次数: 0

Exploring the impact of globalization and economic-energy dynamics on environmental sustainability in the EU 探讨全球化和经济能源动态对欧盟环境可持续性的影响

Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.glt.2024.12.002

Aura Girlovan, Cristiana Tudor, Gabriel Robert Saiu, Daniel Dumitru Guse

This paper investigates the determinants of environmental sustainability by analyzing the impact of various economic, fiscal, and energy-related variables on greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and energy intensity (EI) across 27 European Union member states from 2005 to 2022. Using dynamic panel data analysis through the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, we explore how key factors such as GDP per capita growth, foreign direct investment (FDI), portfolio investments (PI), trade openness (TO), and stock market performance (SMP) influence environmental outcomes. Additionally, the analysis examines the role of fiscal policies, represented by government deficit/surplus (GDT), and energy-related factors, such as renewable energy consumption (REC) and research and development expenditure (ERD), in shaping sustainability. The findings reveal that while GDP growth correlates positively with increased GHG emissions, it negatively impacts energy intensity, suggesting that economic expansion may drive emissions upward while concurrently promoting greater energy efficiency. Trade openness significantly mitigates GHG emissions, indicating that enhanced international trade facilitates access to cleaner technologies. The effects of FDI and PI present a more ambivalent picture, often associated with elevated GHG emissions in the absence of stringent regulatory frameworks. Notably, renewable energy adoption emerges as a critical driver of sustainability, effectively mitigating the environmental impacts of globalization. This study provides valuable insights into the complex interplay between economic globalization and environmental sustainability, offering actionable policy recommendations to align economic growth with the EU's long-term environmental objectives.

本文通过分析2005年至2022年欧盟27个成员国的各种经济、财政和能源相关变量对温室气体（GHG）排放和能源强度（EI）的影响，探讨了环境可持续性的决定因素。通过系统广义矩量法（GMM）估计器，采用动态面板数据分析，我们探讨了人均GDP增长、外国直接投资（FDI）、证券投资（PI）、贸易开放（TO）和股票市场表现（SMP）等关键因素如何影响环境结果。此外，该分析还考察了财政政策（以政府赤字/盈余（GDT）为代表）和能源相关因素（如可再生能源消费（REC）和研发支出（ERD））在塑造可持续性方面的作用。研究结果表明，虽然GDP增长与温室气体排放增加呈正相关，但它对能源强度产生负面影响，这表明经济扩张可能会推动排放上升，同时促进更高的能源效率。贸易开放显著减轻了温室气体排放，表明加强国际贸易有助于获得更清洁的技术。FDI和PI的影响呈现出一种更加矛盾的局面，往往与缺乏严格监管框架的温室气体排放增加有关。值得注意的是，可再生能源的采用成为可持续发展的关键驱动力，有效地减轻了全球化对环境的影响。本研究对经济全球化与环境可持续性之间复杂的相互作用提供了有价值的见解，为使经济增长与欧盟的长期环境目标保持一致提供了可行的政策建议。

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引用次数: 0

IF 3.1 Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01

引用次数: 0

IF 3.1 Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01

引用次数: 0

Assessing the impact of sustainability risks on disaster and pandemic vulnerabilities: A global perspective 评估可持续性风险对灾害和大流行病脆弱性的影响：全球视角

Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.glt.2025.03.001

Abroon Qazi , Linda C. Angell , Mecit Can Emre Simsekler , Abdelkader Daghfous , M.K.S. Al-Mhdawi

This study examines the impact of failing to achieve Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) on disaster and pandemic vulnerabilities, providing a country-level perspective to inform resilience planning. The study introduces the concept of SDG-related risk, defined as the probability of not achieving the desired SDG, and classifies these risks into three categories: high, medium, and low. Using a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) framework, two probabilistic models are developed to evaluate the influence of SDG performance on disaster risk and COVID-19 vulnerability across 165 countries. The results highlight that shortcomings in SDGs such as ‘quality education’, ‘sustainable cities and communities’, ‘no poverty’, and ‘affordable and clean energy’ significantly increase disaster and pandemic risks. Conversely, strong performance in ‘peace, justice and strong institutions’ and ‘life on land’ enhances systemic resilience. Countries with very high disaster risk are particularly exposed to deficiencies in SDGs related to ‘peace, justice and strong institutions’, ‘sustainable cities and communities’, and ‘good health and well-being’. For COVID-19 risk, ‘affordable and clean energy’ emerges as the most critical SDG influencing high-risk exposure, whereas ‘climate action’ is pivotal in predicting low-risk states. These findings demonstrate the cascading risks posed by failing to achieve critical SDGs and emphasize the need for targeted interventions to mitigate vulnerabilities to disasters and pandemics, providing actionable insights for sustainable resilience strategies.

本研究考察了未能实现可持续发展目标（sdg）对灾害和大流行病脆弱性的影响，为韧性规划提供了国家层面的视角。该研究引入了可持续发展目标相关风险的概念，将其定义为无法实现预期可持续发展目标的概率，并将这些风险分为高、中、低三类。利用贝叶斯信念网络（BBN）框架，开发了两个概率模型，以评估165个国家的可持续发展目标绩效对灾害风险和COVID-19脆弱性的影响。结果表明，“优质教育”、“可持续城市和社区”、“无贫困”和“负担得起的清洁能源”等可持续发展目标的不足显著增加了灾害和流行病风险。相反，在“和平、正义和强有力的制度”和“陆上生活”方面的良好表现增强了系统的复原力。灾害风险极高的国家在“和平、正义和强有力的机构”、“可持续城市和社区”以及“良好的健康和福祉”等可持续发展目标方面尤其存在不足。对于COVID-19风险，“负担得起的清洁能源”成为影响高风险暴露的最关键的可持续发展目标，而“气候行动”在预测低风险状态方面至关重要。这些调查结果表明，未能实现关键的可持续发展目标会带来连锁风险，并强调需要采取有针对性的干预措施，以减轻对灾害和流行病的脆弱性，为可持续复原力战略提供可操作的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, food and human health security in developing countries 应对气候变化对发展中国家农业生产力、粮食和人类健康安全的影响

Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.glt.2025.07.002

Fatima Azdagaz , Omar Zirari , Mariem Liouaeddine

This study examines climate change impacts on agricultural productivity and human health across 20 developing countries (2000–2020) using Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel-ARDL) methodology. Our systems approach models dynamic relationships between climate variables, food production, and nutritional outcomes, addressing multicollinearity through variance inflation tests and alternative specifications. National carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions serve as proxies for multiple climate pathways including temperature variations and economic development patterns affecting food systems. Results reveal strong negative long-run relationships between CO₂ emissions and food production, with positive associations with child stunting. The Pooled Mean Group estimator demonstrates homogeneous long-run coefficients while allowing heterogeneous short-term dynamics across countries. The paradoxical positive CO₂-food insecurity relationship reflects greater climate stresses and inequitable benefit distribution in higher-emission countries. Health impacts exhibit greater persistence than production shocks, emphasizing comprehensive monitoring needs. Findings suggest integrated policies combining climate mitigation, productivity enhancement, and health system strengthening for resilient food systems.

本研究采用面板自回归分布滞后（Panel- ardl）方法考察了气候变化对20个发展中国家（2000-2020年）农业生产力和人类健康的影响。我们的系统方法模拟气候变量、粮食生产和营养结果之间的动态关系，通过方差膨胀测试和替代规范解决多重共线性问题。国家二氧化碳（CO2）排放量可作为多种气候途径的代用指标，包括影响粮食系统的温度变化和经济发展模式。研究结果显示，二氧化碳排放与粮食生产之间存在长期的负相关关系，而与儿童发育迟缓呈正相关关系。混合平均组估计器显示了同质的长期系数，同时允许不同国家之间的异质短期动态。二氧化碳与粮食不安全的矛盾正关系反映了高排放国家更大的气候压力和不公平的利益分配。健康影响比生产冲击更持久，强调全面监测的需要。研究结果建议采取综合政策，将减缓气候变化、提高生产力和加强卫生系统相结合，以建立有抵御力的粮食系统。

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IF 3.1 Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01

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IF 3.1 Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01

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IF 3.1 Q1 Social Sciences

Global Transitions

Pub Date : 2025-01-01

引用次数: 0

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