Heung Chong Kim, Young Gui Kim, Minsoo Han, Jong Duk Kim, Moon hee Cho, You-Jin Lim, Younglo Ko, Chang-Hui Cheon, soon yeong Choi, S. Hong, Seong-hwan Min
Korean Abstract: 2016년 6월 23일 영국의 EU 탈퇴 국민투표에서 브렉시트가 결정되자, 전 세계는 큰 충격에 휩싸였고 세계경제에 불확실성이 더해졌다. 국민투표 이후 지난 6개월 동안 EU 탈퇴과정으로 인한 혼란이 계속되고 있으며, 브렉시트가 향후 몇 년 동안 세계경제의 불안요인으로 자리 잡을 것으로 보인다. 이 연구는 현재 진행 중인 브렉시트의 복합적인 측면을 이해하고 한국에 미치는 영향을 폭넓게 파악하기 위한 종합적 연구의 일환으로, 브렉시트 탈퇴협상의 진행상황과 향후 전망, 탈퇴과정상에서 예상되는 여러 문제점과 법적 쟁점, 브렉시트의 거시경제적 영향과 우리나라 산업에 미치는 영향, 한·EU FTA를 포함한 한·EU 경제통상관계의 변화에 대한 경제학적·법적 해석을 통한 정책 시사점 등 다양한 이슈를 폭넓게 다루고 있다. English Abstract: The Brexit referendum, which took place on 23 June, 2016, revealed the British people's willingness for their country to leave the EU. The year 2017 will witness the beginning of Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU taking place in a time full of uncertainties arising from the possibility of the negotiations extending beyond the originally planned duration of two years, ambiguity in EU’s competency areas leading to a complicated decision-making process in the Council, whether or not British MEPs should be given voting rights in the European Parliament, and so forth. One of the key issues in the relation between the UK and the EU in the post-Brexit era is whether or not the UK maintains full access to the Single Market, which is directly related to the issue of if the principle of free movement of the four factors of people, capital, goods and services still holds after Brexit. It will be a key factor to evaluate accessibility to the Single Market if British sovereignty on commercial policy and immigration is restored, and the principle of homogeneity does hold. Thinking carefully over several cases of the models of Single Market, half Single Market, or non-Single Market would lead to a pessimistic reasoning that the UK would hardly be able to maintain Single Market accessibility, and be inclined to take the non-Single Market model.
Korean Abstract: 2016年6月23日，英国在脱欧公投中决定脱欧后，全世界受到巨大冲击，世界经济的不确定性增加。国民投票结束后的过去6个月里，脱欧过程引发的混乱仍在持续，而且脱欧在今后几年里可能会成为世界经济的不稳定因素。这项研究目前正在进行的布欧的复合角度理解并对韩国的影响为了广泛掌握综合作为研究的一环,布欧退出谈判的进展情况和今后的展望,在退出过程中可能出现的各种问题和法律争议,布欧的宏观经济影响和我国对产业的影响,对于包括韩欧FTA在内的韩欧经济通商关系的变化，通过经济学和法律上的解释，对政策启示点等多样的焦点进行了广泛的讨论。英语Abstract: The Brexit referendum, which took place on 23 June, 2016, revealed The British people's willingness for their country to leave The EU。The year 2017 will witness The beginning of Brexit negotiations between The UK and The EU taking place in a time full of uncertainties arising from The possibility of The negotiations extending beyondthe originally planned duration of two years, ambiguity in EU ' s competency areas leading to a complicated decision-making process in the Councilwhether or not British MEPs should be given voting rights in the European Parliament, and so forth。the key issues in the relation between the UK and the EU in the post-Brexit era is whether or not the UK maintains full access to the Single Marketwhich directly related to the issue of if the principle of free movement of the four factors of people, capital, goods and services still holds after Brexit。It will be a key factor to evaluate accessibility to the Single Market if British sovereignty on commercial policy and immigration is restored, and the principle of homogeneity does hold。Thinking carefully over several cases of models of Single Market, half Single Market，or non-Single Market would lead to a pessimistic reasoning that the UK would hardly be able to maintain Single Market accessibility, and be inclined to take the non-Single Market model
{"title":"브렉시트의 경제적 영향 분석과 한국의 대응전략 (Economic Impacts of Brexit and Its Policy Implications to Korea)","authors":"Heung Chong Kim, Young Gui Kim, Minsoo Han, Jong Duk Kim, Moon hee Cho, You-Jin Lim, Younglo Ko, Chang-Hui Cheon, soon yeong Choi, S. Hong, Seong-hwan Min","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2946628","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2946628","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 2016년 6월 23일 영국의 EU 탈퇴 국민투표에서 브렉시트가 결정되자, 전 세계는 큰 충격에 휩싸였고 세계경제에 불확실성이 더해졌다. 국민투표 이후 지난 6개월 동안 EU 탈퇴과정으로 인한 혼란이 계속되고 있으며, 브렉시트가 향후 몇 년 동안 세계경제의 불안요인으로 자리 잡을 것으로 보인다. 이 연구는 현재 진행 중인 브렉시트의 복합적인 측면을 이해하고 한국에 미치는 영향을 폭넓게 파악하기 위한 종합적 연구의 일환으로, 브렉시트 탈퇴협상의 진행상황과 향후 전망, 탈퇴과정상에서 예상되는 여러 문제점과 법적 쟁점, 브렉시트의 거시경제적 영향과 우리나라 산업에 미치는 영향, 한·EU FTA를 포함한 한·EU 경제통상관계의 변화에 대한 경제학적·법적 해석을 통한 정책 시사점 등 다양한 이슈를 폭넓게 다루고 있다. English Abstract: The Brexit referendum, which took place on 23 June, 2016, revealed the British people's willingness for their country to leave the EU. The year 2017 will witness the beginning of Brexit negotiations between the UK and the EU taking place in a time full of uncertainties arising from the possibility of the negotiations extending beyond the originally planned duration of two years, ambiguity in EU’s competency areas leading to a complicated decision-making process in the Council, whether or not British MEPs should be given voting rights in the European Parliament, and so forth. One of the key issues in the relation between the UK and the EU in the post-Brexit era is whether or not the UK maintains full access to the Single Market, which is directly related to the issue of if the principle of free movement of the four factors of people, capital, goods and services still holds after Brexit. It will be a key factor to evaluate accessibility to the Single Market if British sovereignty on commercial policy and immigration is restored, and the principle of homogeneity does hold. Thinking carefully over several cases of the models of Single Market, half Single Market, or non-Single Market would lead to a pessimistic reasoning that the UK would hardly be able to maintain Single Market accessibility, and be inclined to take the non-Single Market model.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"37 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126528757","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
T. Tran, Cung Dinh Nguyen, V. Dang, Dang Thi Thu Hoai, T. H. Vu, Thai Thu Phuong, H. Yen, Thu Ha Tran Thi, Pham Viet Tuan
The world is changing, and more critical changes have been witnessed in East Asia with the emergence of China, which has shaped the economic and geopolitics patterns and inter-dependence among countries. This book aims at investigating the trade and investment dependence of Vietnam on Korea given the increasing economic integration and the more unstable geopolitics in the region. It makes clearer the concept of trade bilateral dependence with the presence of the third parties. By using spatial gravity approach, it also points out the importance of geopolitics factor as well as FTAs in determining the trade and investment flows. The role of some major regional economies should not be neglected. Either the improvement in their institution or their economic slowdown significantly influences the trade and investment relation of Korea and Vietnam.
{"title":"Regional Inter-Dependence and Vietnam-Korea Economic Relationship","authors":"T. Tran, Cung Dinh Nguyen, V. Dang, Dang Thi Thu Hoai, T. H. Vu, Thai Thu Phuong, H. Yen, Thu Ha Tran Thi, Pham Viet Tuan","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2953860","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2953860","url":null,"abstract":"The world is changing, and more critical changes have been witnessed in East Asia with the emergence of China, which has shaped the economic and geopolitics patterns and inter-dependence among countries. This book aims at investigating the trade and investment dependence of Vietnam on Korea given the increasing economic integration and the more unstable geopolitics in the region. It makes clearer the concept of trade bilateral dependence with the presence of the third parties. By using spatial gravity approach, it also points out the importance of geopolitics factor as well as FTAs in determining the trade and investment flows. The role of some major regional economies should not be neglected. Either the improvement in their institution or their economic slowdown significantly influences the trade and investment relation of Korea and Vietnam.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127822459","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Korean Abstract: 한국과 북한의 성공적 경제통합의 주요한 요소는 북한 경제가 오늘날 남한 경제 를 가능한 빠르게 추격하는 것이다. 통일 후에도 한국과 북한 지역 사이에 경제와 생활수준에 큰 격차가 존재한다면 북한 지역에서 남한 지역으로의 이민을 제한하는 것이 어려울 것이다. 이 경우에 한국은 북한으로부터의 이민을 받아들이고 그들을 동화시키기 위해 과도한 사회비용을 지불해야만 한다. 사회비용에는 직업훈련비, 실업보험, 사회갈등과 다른 비용을 포함한다. 북한 지역에서 남한으로의 이민비용을 피하기 위해 필요한 정책은 북한 경제에 존재하는 비효율적인 시스템을 고쳐서 북한 경제를 활성화시키는 것이다. 무역자유화는 경제의 효율성을 개선하기 위한 가장 강력한 동력으로 작동한다. 선진국으로부터 중간재의 구입을 통한 지식 스필오버효과는 북한의 생산기술을 향상시키는 데 기여할 것이다. 또한 수입재로 인해 증대된 경쟁은 경제 내 생산자원의비효율적 배분에 개선을 가져올 것이다. 우리가 무역자유화가 경제 발전에 미치는 효과를 분석할 때 최종재의 무역효과뿐만 아니라 부품의 무역도 고려해야만 한다. 선진국의 다국적기업은 그들의 노동집약적인 공정을 개발도상국으로 재배치해서 글로벌밸류체인(GVC)을 구축해 왔다. 그래서 국가간의 무역관계는 현재 글로벌 경제하에서 더 복잡하게 되었다. 더욱이 GVC 구축은 국제무역과 해외직접투자의 본질을 변화시켰다. 예를 들어 중국의 대미 자동차 수출 증감은 무역상대국인 두 나라의 경제뿐만 아니라 일본도 중국의 자동차업체에 중간재를 수출하기 때문에 일본 경제에도 영향을 미친다. English Abstract: A key factor in the successful economic unification of South and North Korea will be to promote the catch-up process of the North Korean economy to the current level of the South Korean economy as soon as possible. If large differences in economic and living standards continue to exist between the two countries after unification it will be difficult to restrict migration from North to South. In that case, South Korea will have to bear an enormous social cost for accepting and assimilating those immigrants from North. Such social costs include the cost for job training, unemployment insurance, and to deal with social conflicts. To control the cost of migration from North to South Korea it will be necessary to vitalize the North Korean economy by reforming the very inefficient economic system that exists in the country. Trade liberalization is a very powerful driver when it comes to improving economic efficiency. The knowledge spillover effect realized through procurement of intermediate products from advanced countries is expected to contribute to upgrading North Korea’s production technology. Furthermore, the increased competition from imported goods should lead to the improvement of misallocation of production resources in the economy. When we analyze the effects of trade liberalization on economic development in the current economy, we should take into account not only the effects of the international trade of final goods but also those from the trade of parts and components. Multinational firms in advanced economies relocate their labor-intensive work to developing countries and have established global value chains (GVC). Hence, the trade relationship between countries has become more complicated and sophisticated in the current global economy. In addition, the establishment of GVCs has changed the nature of international trade and foreign direct investment. For example, an increase or decrease in automobile exports from China to the USA does not influence only the two countries' economies but also influences the Japanese economy, as Japanese manufacturers export intermediate products to Chinese automobile manufacturers.
Korean Abstract:韩国和北韩成功实现经济一体化的主要因素是北韩经济尽可能快速追赶今天的南韩经济。如果统一后韩国和北韩地区之间的经济和生活水平存在很大差距，就很难限制从北韩地区移民到南韩地区。在这种情况下，韩国必须为接受来自北韩的移民并使他们同化而支付过高的社会费用。社会费用包括职业培训费，失业保险，社会矛盾和其他费用。为了避免从北韩地区移民到南韩的费用，必要的政策是修改北韩经济中存在的低效率系统，搞活北韩经济。贸易自由化是改善经济效率性的最强有力的动力。从发达国家购买中间材料的“知识溢出效果”将对提高北韩的生产技术做出贡献。另外，因进口材料而增加的竞争将改善经济内生产资源的低效率分配。我们分析贸易自由化对经济发展产生的效果时，不仅要考虑最终材料的贸易效果，还要考虑零部件的贸易。发达国家的跨国企业将他们的劳动密集型工程重新部署到发展中国家，构建了全球价值链(GVC)。因此，国家之间的贸易关系在目前全球经济下变得更加复杂。而且，GVC的构建改变了国际贸易和海外直接投资的本质。例如，中国对美汽车出口的增减，不仅是贸易对象国两国的经济，日本也向中国汽车企业出口中间材料，因此对日本经济也会产生影响。english abstract:A key factor in the successful economic unification of South and North Korea will be to promote the catch-up process of the North Korean economy to the current level of the South Korean economy assoon as possible。If large differences in economic and living standards continue to exist between the two countries after unification it will be difficult to restrict migration from North to South。In that case, South Korea will have to bear an enormous social cost for accepting and assimilating those immigrants from North。Such social costs include the cost for job training, unemployment insurance, and to deal with social conflicts。To control the cost of migration from North To South Korea it will be necessary To vitalize the North Korean economy by reforming the very inefficient economic system that exists in the country。Trade liberalization is a very powerful driver when it comes to improving economic efficiency。The knowledge spillover effect realized through procurement of intermediate products from advanced countries is expected to contribute to upgrading North Korea ' s production technology。the increased competition from imported goods should lead to the improvement of misallocation of production resources in the economy。When we analyze the effects of trade liberalization on经济发展在当代economywe should take into account not only the effects of the international trade of final goods but also those from the trade of parts and components。Multinational firms in advanced economies relocate their labor-intensive work to developing countries and have established global value chains (GVC)。the trade relationship between countries has become more complicated and sophisticated in the current global economy。the establishment of GVCs has changed the nature of international trade and foreign direct investment。For example, an increase or decrease in automobile exports from China to the USA does not influence only the two countries' economies but also influences the Japanese economyas Japanese manufacturers export intermediate products to Chinese automobile manufacturers。
{"title":"남북한의 무역자유화가 Global Value Chain (GVC) 을 통해 일본경제에 미칠 영향분석 (The Effect of Inter-Korea Trade Liberalization on Japan's Economy through the Global Value Chain)","authors":"T. Inui, Hyoeg Ug Kwon","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2955515","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2955515","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 한국과 북한의 성공적 경제통합의 주요한 요소는 북한 경제가 오늘날 남한 경제 를 가능한 빠르게 추격하는 것이다. 통일 후에도 한국과 북한 지역 사이에 경제와 생활수준에 큰 격차가 존재한다면 북한 지역에서 남한 지역으로의 이민을 제한하는 것이 어려울 것이다. 이 경우에 한국은 북한으로부터의 이민을 받아들이고 그들을 동화시키기 위해 과도한 사회비용을 지불해야만 한다. 사회비용에는 직업훈련비, 실업보험, 사회갈등과 다른 비용을 포함한다. 북한 지역에서 남한으로의 이민비용을 피하기 위해 필요한 정책은 북한 경제에 존재하는 비효율적인 시스템을 고쳐서 북한 경제를 활성화시키는 것이다. \u0000무역자유화는 경제의 효율성을 개선하기 위한 가장 강력한 동력으로 작동한다. 선진국으로부터 중간재의 구입을 통한 지식 스필오버효과는 북한의 생산기술을 향상시키는 데 기여할 것이다. 또한 수입재로 인해 증대된 경쟁은 경제 내 생산자원의비효율적 배분에 개선을 가져올 것이다. \u0000우리가 무역자유화가 경제 발전에 미치는 효과를 분석할 때 최종재의 무역효과뿐만 아니라 부품의 무역도 고려해야만 한다. 선진국의 다국적기업은 그들의 노동집약적인 공정을 개발도상국으로 재배치해서 글로벌밸류체인(GVC)을 구축해 왔다. 그래서 국가간의 무역관계는 현재 글로벌 경제하에서 더 복잡하게 되었다. 더욱이 GVC 구축은 국제무역과 해외직접투자의 본질을 변화시켰다. 예를 들어 중국의 대미 자동차 수출 증감은 무역상대국인 두 나라의 경제뿐만 아니라 일본도 중국의 자동차업체에 중간재를 수출하기 때문에 일본 경제에도 영향을 미친다. \u0000English Abstract: A key factor in the successful economic unification of South and North Korea will be to promote the catch-up process of the North Korean economy to the current level of the South Korean economy as soon as possible. If large differences in economic and living standards continue to exist between the two countries after unification it will be difficult to restrict migration from North to South. In that case, South Korea will have to bear an enormous social cost for accepting and assimilating those immigrants from North. Such social costs include the cost for job training, unemployment insurance, and to deal with social conflicts. To control the cost of migration from North to South Korea it will be necessary to vitalize the North Korean economy by reforming the very inefficient economic system that exists in the country. \u0000Trade liberalization is a very powerful driver when it comes to improving economic efficiency. The knowledge spillover effect realized through procurement of intermediate products from advanced countries is expected to contribute to upgrading North Korea’s production technology. Furthermore, the increased competition from imported goods should lead to the improvement of misallocation of production resources in the economy. \u0000When we analyze the effects of trade liberalization on economic development in the current economy, we should take into account not only the effects of the international trade of final goods but also those from the trade of parts and components. Multinational firms in advanced economies relocate their labor-intensive work to developing countries and have established global value chains (GVC). Hence, the trade relationship between countries has become more complicated and sophisticated in the current global economy. In addition, the establishment of GVCs has changed the nature of international trade and foreign direct investment. For example, an increase or decrease in automobile exports from China to the USA does not influence only the two countries' economies but also influences the Japanese economy, as Japanese manufacturers export intermediate products to Chinese automobile manufacturers.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"106 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-12-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"124089002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
For most experts the crisis paralyzing trade multilateralism is way down everyone’s to-do list or at least so it seems. But that is far from the whole story because trade multilateralism today is about third-generation big tent trade agreements embodying the invasive presence of global neoliberalism to reach behind borders of states and challenge the sovereignty of governments. For European and Canadian citizens these megadeals are in the crosshairs of threatened citizens worried about their employment prospects, food security, the environment, intellectual property rights, the costs of generic drugs and most importantly the growing specter of investment protectionism. Investor protectionism has been around for a long time but the state investor dispute mechanism in both these trade agreements – to a degree that did not exist previously under the GATT System – now gives global corporations the legal right to sue governments on narrow commercial grounds. Governments increasingly are unable to control the trade governance agenda and the election of Trump has created new instability and uncertainty about the future of trade multilateralism, particularly with regards to NAFTA and other agreements.
{"title":"Post Brexit and the Crisis of Trade Multilateralism: Heartbreak or Mess? Ought We Be Worried? Conference Draft","authors":"Daniel Drache","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.3046810","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.3046810","url":null,"abstract":"For most experts the crisis paralyzing trade multilateralism is way down everyone’s to-do list or at least so it seems. But that is far from the whole story because trade multilateralism today is about third-generation big tent trade agreements embodying the invasive presence of global neoliberalism to reach behind borders of states and challenge the sovereignty of governments. For European and Canadian citizens these megadeals are in the crosshairs of threatened citizens worried about their employment prospects, food security, the environment, intellectual property rights, the costs of generic drugs and most importantly the growing specter of investment protectionism. Investor protectionism has been around for a long time but the state investor dispute mechanism in both these trade agreements – to a degree that did not exist previously under the GATT System – now gives global corporations the legal right to sue governments on narrow commercial grounds. Governments increasingly are unable to control the trade governance agenda and the election of Trump has created new instability and uncertainty about the future of trade multilateralism, particularly with regards to NAFTA and other agreements.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-10-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"116421731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
In the recent times, there has been an increasing spread of trade tentacles of China into the hinterland of many developing nations of the world. The need to secure resources to meet the development aspiration of her country made China to increasingly forged formidable trade ties with almost all African countries, especially Nigeria, in the area of manufacturing products. While these realities have proved to be beneficial to the trading partners, there is still skepticism about the benefits of such trade relations to Nigeria. There is a perceived dis-proportionality in the quantum of bilateral inflow of manufacturing products between Nigeria and China. This study therefore addressed these concerns by applying gravity model to analyze the determinants of bilateral trade relation in manufacturing products between Nigeria and China for the period of 1995 to 2012. Thus, from the stylized facts, we find evidence of increasing influx of China manufactured products into Nigeria while that of Nigeria outflow to them is of low magnitude. This paper therefore recommended the diversification of economic base of Nigeria crucial for a more beneficial China-Nigeria bilateral trade in manufactures.
{"title":"Determinants of Nigeria-China Bilateral Trade in Manufacturing Products","authors":"Roland Avura Akpoilih, A. Farayibi","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2846061","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2846061","url":null,"abstract":"In the recent times, there has been an increasing spread of trade tentacles of China into the hinterland of many developing nations of the world. The need to secure resources to meet the development aspiration of her country made China to increasingly forged formidable trade ties with almost all African countries, especially Nigeria, in the area of manufacturing products. While these realities have proved to be beneficial to the trading partners, there is still skepticism about the benefits of such trade relations to Nigeria. There is a perceived dis-proportionality in the quantum of bilateral inflow of manufacturing products between Nigeria and China. This study therefore addressed these concerns by applying gravity model to analyze the determinants of bilateral trade relation in manufacturing products between Nigeria and China for the period of 1995 to 2012. Thus, from the stylized facts, we find evidence of increasing influx of China manufactured products into Nigeria while that of Nigeria outflow to them is of low magnitude. This paper therefore recommended the diversification of economic base of Nigeria crucial for a more beneficial China-Nigeria bilateral trade in manufactures.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"456 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128444056","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Korean Abstract: 본 연구에서는 중국의 대북투자 시계열 데이터(2000~15)를 추정하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 중국의 대북 투자와 관련된 공식?비공식적 자료에서 나타난 문제점을 제시하고, 기업별 투자 데이터 및 대리변수를 사용하여 기존 데이터를 보정한 독자적인 추정치를 제시하였다. 먼저 2000년대 이후 언론 보도와 선행연구에서 제시된 기업별 데이터를 취합 후 분석하였다. 그 결과 중국의 대북투자는 2009년 2차 핵실험 이후 일시적인 시기를 제외하면 2004~12년까지 지속적으로 증가하다가 2013년 3차 핵실험 이후 감소세 내지는 침체기로 돌아섰을 것으로 판단되었다. 이러한 추세는 중국 상무부 통계상의 추세와 대체로 일치하나, 본격적 투자 시점인 2004~05년 투자액 및 투자 추세가 언론보도와 큰 차이를 보여 연도별 대북투자액 추정을 위해서는 상당한 보정이 필요하다는 점이 발견되었다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 기존 기업별 데이터에서 정보 개선 및 추가 식별이 가능한 데이터를 분리한 후, 이를 상무부 투자기업 리스트 등 9개의 추가 자료에서 얻을 수 있는 정보와 매칭(Matching)하여 일차적 추정치를 제시하였다. 이러한 방법으로 본 연구에서는 기존 연구 대비 거의 두 배에 달하는 표본을 확보할 수 있었다. 또한 도출된 데이터를 토대로 연도별 대북투자액을 합산한 결과 2000년대 이후 중국의 대북투자 총액은 약 7억 5,998만 달러로 추정되었는데, 이는 중국 상무부 통계에서 제시된 동 기간 유량 합산액의 1.74배에 달한다. 이와 같은 결과는 대북투자가 가장 활발히 진행된 시기인 2005~07년 기간 발생한 투자의 상당 부분이 누락되었음을 시사하고 있다. 다만 위의 방식은 각 기업이 북한에 투자한 총 투자액이 최초 비준 시점에 모두 실행된 것으로 가정하고 있어, 투자기업이 많이 식별되거나 규모가 큰 광업 분야 투자가 활발한 해일수록 중국의 대북 투자액이 과도하게 추정되는 한계를 보였다.(후략) English Abstract: This paper aims to estimate time-series data of China's direct investments on North Korea from 2000 to 2015. In order to achieve such a goal, problems of official and unofficial reports related to the subject are presented first. Then, original estimates are drawn by utilizing firm-level overseas direct investment data and proxy variables. The estimation process starts from aggregation of data appeared in all press releases and earlier studies. A basic analysis on collected items suggests that China's ODI on North Korea has continuously increased from 2004 to 2012, except for a brief period around Pyongyang's second nuclear test in 2009. Investments seem to enter a downturn after the third test in 2013. Such a trend matches the one suggested by China's Ministry of Commerce(MOFCOM) by and large; however, there was a big difference between the two in volume and trend of ODI from 2004 to 2005. Therefore, some revisions are needed to obtain reasonable time-series data. This paper suggested the first stage estimates by matching former data of Chinese firms to newly obtained lists. The number of samples is almost doubled even after filtering out flawed ones. Based on a more reliable set of data, estimated amount of China's investment on North Korea after 2000 is 759.98 million dollars total. This estimate is 1.74 times larger than figures reported in MOFCOM, implying that a significant portion of ODI turns out to be unrecorded especially during 2005-2007. (The rest omitted).
Korean Abstract:本研究试图推测中国对北投资时序数据(2000 - 15)。为此，中国的对朝投资相关的公式?他指出了非正式数据中出现的问题，并提出了使用企业投资数据和代理变量修正现有数据的独立推定值。首先对2000年代以后媒体报道和先行研究中提出的各企业数据进行综合分析。据判断，中国的对北投资在2009年进行第二次核试验以后，除了暂时的时期外，在2004年至12年期间持续增加，但在2013年进行第三次核试验以后，开始减少甚至停滞。这一趋势与中国商务部统计上的趋势大体一致，但正式投资的2004年至05年的投资额及投资趋势与媒体报道有很大差异，因此发现要想推算各年度的对北投资额，需要进行相当大的修改。据此，本研究从现有企业数据中分离出可改善信息及进一步识别的数据后，将其与商务部投资企业清单等9个追加资料中可获得的信息进行匹配，提出了第一性推定值。通过这种方法，本研究得到了几乎是现有研究的两倍的标本。另外，以得出的数据为基础，对各年度对北投资额进行合算的结果显示，2000年以后，中国对北投资总额约达7.5998亿美元，是中国商务部统计中提出的同期流量总额的1.74倍。上述结果暗示，在对北投资最活跃的2005年至07年期间，发生的投资中有相当一部分被遗漏。只是上的方式,各企业对北韩投资的总投资额最初批准时间都在实行的家庭,被投资企业多的识别或规模较大的矿业领域投资活跃的海啸越中国的对北投资过度表现出了疑似界限。(后略)english abstract:This paper aims to estimate time-series data of China's direct investments on North Korea from 2000 to 2015。In order to achieve such a goal, problems of official and unofficial reports related to the subject are presented first。Then, original estimates are drawn by utilizing firm-level overseas direct investment data and proxy variables。The estimation process starts from aggregation of data appeared in all press releases and earlier studies。A basic analysis on collected items suggests that China's ODI on North Korea has continuously increased from 2004 to 2012, except for A brief period around Pyongyang's second nuclear test in 2009。Investments seem to enter a downturn after the third test in 2013。Such a trend matches the one suggested by China's Ministry of Commerce(MOFCOM) by and large;however, there was a big difference between the two in volume and trend of ODI from 2004 to 2005。Therefore, some revisions are needed to obtain reasonable time-series data。This paper suggested the first stage estimates by matching former data of Chinese firms to newly obtained lists。The number of samples is almost doubled even after filtering out flawed ones。Based on a more reliable set of data, estimated amount of China's investment on North Korea after 2000 is 759.98 million dollars total。这是1.74 times larger than figures reported in MOFCOM, implying that a significant portion of ODI turns out be unrecorded especially during 2005-2007。(the rest omitted)。
{"title":"2000년대 이후 중국의 대북투자 추정 (Estimation of China's Investments on North Korea after 2000s)","authors":"Sooho Lim, Junyoung Kim, Seokki Hong","doi":"10.2139/SSRN.2859965","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/SSRN.2859965","url":null,"abstract":"Korean Abstract: 본 연구에서는 중국의 대북투자 시계열 데이터(2000~15)를 추정하고자 하였다. 이를 위해 중국의 대북 투자와 관련된 공식?비공식적 자료에서 나타난 문제점을 제시하고, 기업별 투자 데이터 및 대리변수를 사용하여 기존 데이터를 보정한 독자적인 추정치를 제시하였다. 먼저 2000년대 이후 언론 보도와 선행연구에서 제시된 기업별 데이터를 취합 후 분석하였다. 그 결과 중국의 대북투자는 2009년 2차 핵실험 이후 일시적인 시기를 제외하면 2004~12년까지 지속적으로 증가하다가 2013년 3차 핵실험 이후 감소세 내지는 침체기로 돌아섰을 것으로 판단되었다. 이러한 추세는 중국 상무부 통계상의 추세와 대체로 일치하나, 본격적 투자 시점인 2004~05년 투자액 및 투자 추세가 언론보도와 큰 차이를 보여 연도별 대북투자액 추정을 위해서는 상당한 보정이 필요하다는 점이 발견되었다. 이에 따라 본 연구에서는 기존 기업별 데이터에서 정보 개선 및 추가 식별이 가능한 데이터를 분리한 후, 이를 상무부 투자기업 리스트 등 9개의 추가 자료에서 얻을 수 있는 정보와 매칭(Matching)하여 일차적 추정치를 제시하였다. 이러한 방법으로 본 연구에서는 기존 연구 대비 거의 두 배에 달하는 표본을 확보할 수 있었다. 또한 도출된 데이터를 토대로 연도별 대북투자액을 합산한 결과 2000년대 이후 중국의 대북투자 총액은 약 7억 5,998만 달러로 추정되었는데, 이는 중국 상무부 통계에서 제시된 동 기간 유량 합산액의 1.74배에 달한다. 이와 같은 결과는 대북투자가 가장 활발히 진행된 시기인 2005~07년 기간 발생한 투자의 상당 부분이 누락되었음을 시사하고 있다. 다만 위의 방식은 각 기업이 북한에 투자한 총 투자액이 최초 비준 시점에 모두 실행된 것으로 가정하고 있어, 투자기업이 많이 식별되거나 규모가 큰 광업 분야 투자가 활발한 해일수록 중국의 대북 투자액이 과도하게 추정되는 한계를 보였다.(후략) English Abstract: This paper aims to estimate time-series data of China's direct investments on North Korea from 2000 to 2015. In order to achieve such a goal, problems of official and unofficial reports related to the subject are presented first. Then, original estimates are drawn by utilizing firm-level overseas direct investment data and proxy variables. The estimation process starts from aggregation of data appeared in all press releases and earlier studies. A basic analysis on collected items suggests that China's ODI on North Korea has continuously increased from 2004 to 2012, except for a brief period around Pyongyang's second nuclear test in 2009. Investments seem to enter a downturn after the third test in 2013. Such a trend matches the one suggested by China's Ministry of Commerce(MOFCOM) by and large; however, there was a big difference between the two in volume and trend of ODI from 2004 to 2005. Therefore, some revisions are needed to obtain reasonable time-series data. This paper suggested the first stage estimates by matching former data of Chinese firms to newly obtained lists. The number of samples is almost doubled even after filtering out flawed ones. Based on a more reliable set of data, estimated amount of China's investment on North Korea after 2000 is 759.98 million dollars total. This estimate is 1.74 times larger than figures reported in MOFCOM, implying that a significant portion of ODI turns out to be unrecorded especially during 2005-2007. (The rest omitted).","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"27 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-09-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"125209242","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper presents a theoretical gravity model of trade in which foreign aid is considered as a transfer instead of being part of the trade cost, as it has been previously done in the related literature. We argue that the usual specification leads to invalid out-of-sample predictions, biased coefficients and moreover it ignores heterogeneity. The proposed model is estimated for a sample of 188 countries over the period 1988-2013 using panel fixed effects and PPML techniques and the resulting trade elasticities with respect to aid are compared with those obtained from the traditional specification. The main results show that average effect of one additional US $ of aid is around 0.56$ of total imports according to our model, whereas with the alternative model an average effect of an implausible amount of 11$ of imports is obtained. In addition, a decomposed version of the model provides a new framework to disentangle the political effects of aid from the budget effects. While we consider the case of foreign aid, the modeling framework also applies to the study of other transfer, as for example remittances.
{"title":"Transfers in the Gravity Equation: The Case of Foreign Aid","authors":"Hendrik W. Kruse, I. Martínez‐Zarzoso","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2824563","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2824563","url":null,"abstract":"This paper presents a theoretical gravity model of trade in which foreign aid is considered as a transfer instead of being part of the trade cost, as it has been previously done in the related literature. We argue that the usual specification leads to invalid out-of-sample predictions, biased coefficients and moreover it ignores heterogeneity. The proposed model is estimated for a sample of 188 countries over the period 1988-2013 using panel fixed effects and PPML techniques and the resulting trade elasticities with respect to aid are compared with those obtained from the traditional specification. The main results show that average effect of one additional US $ of aid is around 0.56$ of total imports according to our model, whereas with the alternative model an average effect of an implausible amount of 11$ of imports is obtained. In addition, a decomposed version of the model provides a new framework to disentangle the political effects of aid from the budget effects. While we consider the case of foreign aid, the modeling framework also applies to the study of other transfer, as for example remittances.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"7 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-08-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"121789187","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Instead of allowing diversity and competition between member states, underpinned with the use of courts to prevent trade barriers, the EU has at its core a centralising, harmonising agenda. This risks raising the overall level of regulation higher than is necessary and embedding systemic risks. If the UK votes to remain in the EU, Britain should focus on changing the overall institutional structure in a more free-market direction. This agenda should focus on institutional change, rather than the repeal or refinement of particular directives. Alternatively, it will probably take a long time for Britain to disentangle itself from the EU policy. Moving towards a more classical liberal Britain is therefore a long-term endeavour. It seems likely in the event of a Brexit that the government and civil service will push for the UK to join the European Economic Area. This brings with a repatriation of some powers, but does not fully restore control across a range of economic areas. To realise the true gains from Brexit, the EEA must, in these circumstances, be very much a transitional arrangement.
{"title":"Making the Pieces Fit: Reforming Britain’s relationship with the EU","authors":"P. Booth, R. Bourne","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3852753","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3852753","url":null,"abstract":"Instead of allowing diversity and competition between member states, underpinned with the use of courts to prevent trade barriers, the EU has at its core a centralising, harmonising agenda. This risks raising the overall level of regulation higher than is necessary and embedding systemic risks. If the UK votes to remain in the EU, Britain should focus on changing the overall institutional structure in a more free-market direction. This agenda should focus on institutional change, rather than the repeal or refinement of particular directives. Alternatively, it will probably take a long time for Britain to disentangle itself from the EU policy. Moving towards a more classical liberal Britain is therefore a long-term endeavour. It seems likely in the event of a Brexit that the government and civil service will push for the UK to join the European Economic Area. This brings with a repatriation of some powers, but does not fully restore control across a range of economic areas. To realise the true gains from Brexit, the EEA must, in these circumstances, be very much a transitional arrangement.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"52 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129892824","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
This paper analyzes the change in direction of trade, shift in goods traded and the factors contributing to such shift between India and Canada. These have been analyzed through use of Shift-Share and Constant Market Share analysis. The analysis of bilateral trade between the two countries indicates that the commodity mix changes from time to time. The constant market share (CMS) analysis shows that the world trade has little effect on India while the reverse is true for Canada. Thus the shift in trade between the countries can be attributed to world trade effect, competitiveness and market distribution effect. It further elaborates and reviews the research done in the field of trade and identifies the dimensions that govern the trade dynamics. It proposes a causal model that substantiates and explains the cause and effect of various dimensions ultimately impacting the trade between the two countries. The System Dynamics model takes into account the different perspectives of international trade namely, free trade, fair trade, conflict, national and global economy, endowments, trade-balance and externalities. The various policies that undergo change as a result of interplay of these dimensions include monetary and fiscal and trade policies (tariff and non-tariff barriers). The model reveals five loops. The properties of these loops have been explained identifying them as positive and negative loops. The paper concludes by proposing a framework that would enable the planners to frame, execute and review bilateral trade agreements such as the Comprehensive Economic Partnership (CEPA) under formulation between India and Canada, keeping in view the outcome of proposal to allow FDI in retail sector in India and failure of different trade treaties such as US-Korea trade treaty initiated in 2007.
{"title":"Dimensions of Changing Directions of Trade: A System Dynamics Framework","authors":"D. Sinha","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2784100","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2784100","url":null,"abstract":"This paper analyzes the change in direction of trade, shift in goods traded and the factors contributing to such shift between India and Canada. These have been analyzed through use of Shift-Share and Constant Market Share analysis. The analysis of bilateral trade between the two countries indicates that the commodity mix changes from time to time. The constant market share (CMS) analysis shows that the world trade has little effect on India while the reverse is true for Canada. Thus the shift in trade between the countries can be attributed to world trade effect, competitiveness and market distribution effect. It further elaborates and reviews the research done in the field of trade and identifies the dimensions that govern the trade dynamics. It proposes a causal model that substantiates and explains the cause and effect of various dimensions ultimately impacting the trade between the two countries. The System Dynamics model takes into account the different perspectives of international trade namely, free trade, fair trade, conflict, national and global economy, endowments, trade-balance and externalities. The various policies that undergo change as a result of interplay of these dimensions include monetary and fiscal and trade policies (tariff and non-tariff barriers). The model reveals five loops. The properties of these loops have been explained identifying them as positive and negative loops. The paper concludes by proposing a framework that would enable the planners to frame, execute and review bilateral trade agreements such as the Comprehensive Economic Partnership (CEPA) under formulation between India and Canada, keeping in view the outcome of proposal to allow FDI in retail sector in India and failure of different trade treaties such as US-Korea trade treaty initiated in 2007.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"21 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-05-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"132111228","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Since the Age of Discovery, the world has grown integrated economically while remaining disintegrated politically as a collection of nation states. The nation-state system is robust because borders, as state dividers, interact with economic integration to absorb shocks. We build a tractable general equilibrium model of international trade and national borders in the world. Over a longer time horizon, declining trade costs alter trade volumes across states but also incentivize states to redraw borders, causing states to form, change, and be dissolved. Our model offers rich implications for global geopolitics, including political geography, its interplay with natural geography, state-size distribution, and the frequency and nature of military disputes. These implications are supported by historical data.
{"title":"Trade and Geopolitics","authors":"Ben G. Li, Penglong Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.2761871","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.2761871","url":null,"abstract":"Since the Age of Discovery, the world has grown integrated economically while remaining disintegrated politically as a collection of nation states. The nation-state system is robust because borders, as state dividers, interact with economic integration to absorb shocks. We build a tractable general equilibrium model of international trade and national borders in the world. Over a longer time horizon, declining trade costs alter trade volumes across states but also incentivize states to redraw borders, causing states to form, change, and be dissolved. Our model offers rich implications for global geopolitics, including political geography, its interplay with natural geography, state-size distribution, and the frequency and nature of military disputes. These implications are supported by historical data.","PeriodicalId":341166,"journal":{"name":"PSN: Trade Relationships (Topic)","volume":"46 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2016-03-16","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"128012504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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