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Serbian diplomacy in deterrence 塞尔维亚的威慑外交
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/spm81-45308
Veljko Blagojević
Resume Diplomacy represents the first line of promotion and defense of national interests and one of the sources of power, alongside with military, economic, information and other forms of power. The importance and complexity of diplomacy for Serbia in the contemporary international relations are perhaps most evident in terms of deterrence when a major war is being waged on European soil, which will certainly have long-term consequences for the international system. In addition to these factors, the persistent unresolved issues stemming from the Yugoslav heritage, notably the contentious matter of Kosovo and Metohija's status, underscore the imperative for Serbia to consistently harness its full national potential to establish a robust and comprehensive deterrence strategy under the constraints of a policy of military neutrality. This policy, in turn, further compounds the complexity of the challenges at hand. The effectiveness of diplomacy is one of the key prerequisites for successful deterrence, but its synergy with other instruments of foreign policy cannot be reliably realized without the concept of strategic communication. The goal of this paper is, relying on a realistic theoretical foundation, to provide an analysis of diplomatic functions and examine its significance for effective deterrence and the necessity of synchronized action with other foreign policy instruments; instruments that were primarily developed for deterrence but can be utilized differently if diplomacy fails to navigate the security dilemma's failings.
外交是促进和维护国家利益的第一道防线,与军事、经济、信息等多种形式的权力齐名,是权力的来源之一。在当代国际关系中,外交对塞尔维亚的重要性和复杂性也许在威慑方面最为明显,因为一场重大战争正在欧洲土地上进行,这肯定会对国际制度产生长期影响。除了这些因素外,南斯拉夫遗产所产生的持续未解决的问题,特别是科索沃和梅托希亚地位的争议问题,突出表明塞尔维亚必须始终充分利用其国家潜力,在军事中立政策的限制下制定强有力和全面的威慑战略。这一政策反过来又进一步加剧了当前挑战的复杂性。外交的有效性是成功威慑的关键先决条件之一,但如果没有战略沟通的概念,外交与其他外交政策手段的协同作用就无法可靠地实现。本文的目的是依托现实的理论基础,对外交职能进行分析,考察其对有效威慑的意义以及与其他外交政策工具同步行动的必要性;这些工具主要是为了威慑而开发的,但如果外交无法应对安全困境的失败,可以以不同的方式加以利用。
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引用次数: 0
Local democracy and forms of direct citizen participation in governance: Case study Serbia 地方民主和公民直接参与治理的形式:塞尔维亚个案研究
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/spm81-45784
Mijodrag Radojević
The subject of this paper is the institutions of direct democracy at the local level in Serbia, with the aim of analyzing valid solutions (de lege lata) and improving the legal framework (de lege ferenda). The author starts from the thesis that local democracy is an ambiguous and imprecise term. In a broader sense, it represents the right of citizens to participate in government at the local level. In a narrower sense, this term is used as a synonym for local self-government (decentralization) and direct participation of citizens in government. On the other hand, tradition, socio-economic assumptions, legal (normative) framework and political environment are factors that influence local democracy. Apart from the election of local government representatives (representative local democracy), the basic institutional channels of local democracy are forms of direct citizen participation of citizens in decision-making, such as referendum and people's initiative. The application of institutions of direct democracy can be one of the indicators of the level of development of local self-government and local democracy. In the Republic of Serbia, institutional mechanisms for direct citizen participation in local self-government have been created, such as referendums, citizens' initiatives, and assembly of citizens (zbor). In addition, citizens have the right to petition and publicly criticize the authorities, the right to be heard on the authorities' intentions and the right to be informed about and monitor the work of the authorities. The local referendum is enshrined in the Constitution and other institutions are regulated by legal provisions. The quality of these regulations improved after the adoption of the new Law on Referendums and People's Initiative (2021). However, in local self-government units, the scope of these institutions of direct democracy is very limited low. The practice of direct local democracy is very poor, although there is a long tradition of struggle for local self-government in the 19th century. Such a situation is a consequence of the party state that multiplies the centralized way of decision-making, which is manifested in limited participation of citizens in political processes, increasing distrust in political institutions and ineffective control of the authorities in local self-government units. The crisis of democracy also manifests itself in the fact that citizens are less and less interested in public policy. Based on empirical data, comparative experiences and legal standards, the author believes that the solution lies in reviving the application of direct democracy at the local level.
本文的主题是塞尔维亚地方一级的直接民主机构,目的是分析有效的解决方案(de lege lata)和改进法律框架(de lege ferenda)。作者从“地方民主是一个模糊的、不精确的术语”这一论点出发。在更广泛的意义上,它代表了公民在地方一级参与政府的权利。在狭义上,这个词被用作地方自治(分权)和公民直接参与政府的同义词。另一方面,传统、社会经济假设、法律(规范)框架和政治环境是影响地方民主的因素。除了地方政府代表的选举(代议制地方民主)外,地方民主的基本制度渠道是公民直接参与决策的形式,如公民投票、人民倡议等。直接民主制度的运用可以作为地方自治和地方民主发展水平的指标之一。在塞尔维亚共和国,建立了公民直接参与地方自治的体制机制,如公民投票、公民倡议和公民大会(zbor)。此外,公民有权向当局请愿和公开批评,有权就当局的意图发表意见,有权了解和监督当局的工作。地方公民投票被写入宪法,其他机构由法律规定。在通过新的《公民投票和人民倡议法》(2021年)后,这些条例的质量有所提高。然而,在地方自治单位中,这些直接民主机构的范围非常有限。尽管在19世纪有争取地方自治的悠久传统,但地方直接民主的实践非常贫乏。这种情况是党国主义国家扩大集中决策方式的结果,其表现为公民对政治进程的参与有限,对政治机构的不信任日益增加,对地方自治单位当局的控制无效。民主危机还表现为公民对公共政策越来越不感兴趣。根据实证数据、比较经验和法律标准,作者认为解决办法在于在地方一级恢复直接民主的应用。
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引用次数: 0
Local elections in the Republic of Serbia 2016 and 2020: Political consequences of lowering the electoral threshold 2016年和2020年塞尔维亚共和国地方选举:降低选举门槛的政治后果
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/spm79-42701
Nikola Perišić, Boris Kaličanin
The paper examines the political consequences of the change in electoral legislation through a comparative analysis of election results at the local level in 2016 and 2020. In addition to the analysis of the election results themselves, and bearing in mind the boycott of the majority of the opposition in the 2020 elections, the paper will also show a simulation of the election results of 2016 with a reduced electoral threshold of 3% in order to better understand the effect of lowering the electoral threshold, considering that at that time all relevant political parties participated in local elections. The electoral results from cities that are the seat of administrative districts (24) in the Republic of Serbia, excluding the city of Belgrade and Kosovo and Metohija, are used as a sample for the analysis. The main findings of the research show that the lowering of the electoral threshold did not increase representativeness. More precisely, the number of lists represented in local parliaments did not increase, neither in absolute nor in effective numbers. However, the impact of the boycott of the opposition parties in the 2020 election process should be taken into account. On the other hand, the analysis shows that a larger number of lists would have crossed the electoral threshold if the three-percent electoral threshold had been applied in 2016. In addition, in 2020, a smaller number of so-called "wasted votes" was observed. Lastly, lowering the electoral threshold did not help the citizens groups to achieve better election results in 2020.
本文通过对2016年和2020年地方选举结果的比较分析,考察了选举法变化的政治后果。除了对选举结果本身的分析,并考虑到2020年选举中大多数反对派的抵制,本文还将展示2016年选举结果的模拟,将选举门槛降低3%,以更好地了解降低选举门槛的效果,考虑到当时所有相关政党都参加了地方选举。塞尔维亚共和国24个行政区所在城市(不包括贝尔格莱德、科索沃和梅托希亚)的选举结果被用作分析样本。研究的主要结果显示,降低选举门槛并没有增加代表性。更确切地说,在地方议会中所代表的名单数目没有增加,无论是绝对数目还是实际数目都没有增加。但是,应该考虑到2020年大选过程中在野党的抵制所带来的影响。另一方面,分析认为,如果2016年采用3%的选举门槛,将会有更多的名单超过选举门槛。此外,在2020年,观察到的所谓“浪费选票”数量较少。最后,降低选举门槛并没有帮助市民团体在2020年取得更好的选举结果。
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引用次数: 0
Effective deterrence: When is deterrence the "right" strategy for achieving national interests? 有效威慑:什么时候威慑是实现国家利益的“正确”战略?
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/spm80-44241
Mihajlo Kopanja
The research goal of this paper is to determine the circumstances in which the strategy of deterrence is the "right thingˮ for the security of the state. In the pursuit of realizing their own interests - from minimum survival to maximum hegemony, states (in theory) have a wide range of possible ideal-type strategies. However, this does not mean that all possible strategies will be equally effective for achieving national interests. This paper strives to determine which conditions should be met in order for the implementation of deterrence to be the most effective strategy, that is, the "right thingˮ for the security of the state. For this purpose, the work is organized in three parts. In the first unit, the concept of strategic effectiveness is elaborated. In the second part, the author provides a brief overview of deterrence as a strategy, presenting the key theoretical-conceptual elements of this strategy. The third part of the paper presents the conditions that must be met in order for the deterrence strategy to be effective, i.e. the "right thingˮ for realizing national interests. Finally, in the final segment of the paper, the author looks at the case of the Republic of Serbia, considering whether deterrence is an effective solution in modern circumstances.
本文的研究目标是确定威慑战略在什么情况下是国家安全的“正确之事”。在追求实现自身利益的过程中——从最小限度的生存到最大限度的霸权,国家(理论上)有多种可能的理想型战略。然而,这并不意味着所有可能的战略在实现国家利益方面都同样有效。本文试图确定,为了使威慑的实施成为最有效的战略,即国家安全的“正确之事”,应该满足哪些条件。为此,本研究分为三个部分。第一单元阐述了战略有效性的概念。在第二部分中,作者简要概述了威慑作为一种战略,提出了这一战略的关键理论概念要素。本文的第三部分提出了威慑战略有效必须满足的条件,即实现国家利益的“正确之事”。最后,在本文的最后一部分,作者着眼于塞尔维亚共和国的情况,考虑威慑是否是现代情况下的有效解决方案。
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引用次数: 0
Informal shapes of social anomie 社会反常的非正式形式
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/spm80-44054
Vlada Stanković, Tijana Perić-Diligenski
The topic of this scientific work is placed in the domain of social anomie. The effects of the action of informal forms of social anomie cause social entropy and indicate the permanent topicality of the topic. Social anomie destroys social processes, devalues institutions and devastates the fundamental values on which the community rests, so the social significance of research is unquestionable. Scientific justification is contained in the need to shed light on phenomena and processes from the domain of social pathology. The aim of the research is to define, classify, sistematize the observed phenomena and to offer optimal solutions to overcome them. The work for the Subject of reserch has: discovering the forms of social anomie, pointing out the harmful effects of these informal forms of social behavior, as well as proposing solutions to overcome the resulting situation in order to remove the harmful effects. In their work, the authors start from: the observation method, the development method, the comparative approach, the cross-cultural method, and the numerous methods of legal sciences. The subject framework of the research moves in the area of: sociology, social pathology, political and legal sciences. We have explained the logic of various forms of institutional action that cause social anomie and violate the basic rules of behavior on which a community rests. Anomic conditions point to illegal activity and violation of basic legal acts. And yet, social anomie goes beyond legal frameworks, pointing to the lack of social rules in regulating social relations that escape legal sanctions. Therefore, it is important to have a collective consciousness, which, among other things, distinguishes the value and moral elements of a community. Public opinion, public pressure, sense of responsibility, institutional procedures, as well as the rule of law, direct actors-in-situation towards those behaviors that significantly reduce anomic conditions.
这项科学工作的主题被置于社会失范的领域。社会失范的非正式形式的作用效应产生了社会熵,表明了话题的永久话题性。社会失范破坏了社会进程,贬低了制度,破坏了社会赖以存在的基本价值观,因此研究的社会意义是毋庸置疑的。科学论证包含在阐明社会病理学领域的现象和过程的需要中。研究的目的是对观察到的现象进行定义、分类、系统化,并提供克服这些现象的最佳解决方案。本课题的研究工作有:发现社会失范的形式,指出这些非正式形式的社会行为的有害影响,并提出解决方案,以克服由此产生的情况,以消除有害影响。在他们的工作中,作者从:观察法、发展法、比较法、跨文化法以及众多法学方法出发。研究的学科框架涉及:社会学、社会病理学、政治学和法学。我们已经解释了各种形式的制度行为的逻辑,这些行为导致社会失范,违反了社区赖以存在的基本行为规则。失范状况指的是非法活动和违反基本法律行为。然而,社会失范超越了法律框架,指出缺乏规范社会关系的社会规则,可以逃避法律制裁。因此,重要的是要有一种集体意识,这种意识除其他外,区分了一个社区的价值和道德因素。公众舆论、公众压力、责任感、制度程序以及法治,都能引导情境行动者采取那些显著减少失范状况的行为。
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引用次数: 0
Balkan insights: A grassroots approach to peace and security - Džuverović Nemanja, Stojarová Věra: Peace and Security in the Western Balkans: A Local Perspective, Routledge, London, 2023 巴尔干见解:和平与安全的基层方法-DžuverovićNemanja,StojarováVŞra:《西巴尔干的和平与安全:地方视角》,Routledge,伦敦,2023年
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/spm80-44099
Ljiljana Kolarski
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引用次数: 0
The concept of total defense in the deterrence strategy of the Republic of Serbia 塞尔维亚共和国威慑战略中的全面防御概念
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/spm80-44249
Vangel Milkovski, Sandra Božić
The subject of this article refers to the examination of the convenience of the concept of total defense as a basis for designing a defense system in the function of strategic deterrence of the Republic of Serbia. The existing defense system was supposed to be based on the concept of total defense, which has not been defined, verified and generally accepted since the Republic of Serbia was founded. In accordance with the above, the question arises: whether the existing way of organizing and functioning of the defense system corresponds to the requirements of strategic deterrence. The starting point in this paper is the position that the defense system, without a previously defined and generally accepted concept of total defense, may not be fully efficient and effective in creating a credible and persuasive threat in the function of strategic deterrence. The results of the research indicate that in order to develop the necessary defenece forces capabilities and their use for strategic deterrence, it is necessary to first develop the concept of total defense. Through the development process, it is possible to achieve full agreement of all forces on their tasks, methods of engagement and associated risks. Also, with the concept of total defense, it is possible to determine measures and recommendations on changes in the existing defense system that should increase the effectiveness and efficiency of strategic deterrence. The theoretical-methodological approach used a theoretical analysis and comparison of total defense concepts in different historical and geopolitical conditions, as well as a method concept development that can meet the requirements of strategic deterrence in the conditions of a modern multidimensional strategic environment.
本文的主题是审查全面防御概念的便利性,作为设计具有塞尔维亚共和国战略威慑功能的防御系统的基础。现有的防御系统本应以全面防御的概念为基础,但自从塞尔维亚共和国成立以来,这一概念一直没有得到界定、核实和普遍接受。根据上述情况,就产生了一个问题:现有的防御系统的组织和运作方式是否符合战略威慑的要求。本文的出发点是这样一种立场,即如果没有预先定义和普遍接受的全面防御概念,防御系统可能无法充分有效地在战略威慑功能中产生可信和有说服力的威胁。研究结果表明,为了发展必要的防御力量能力及其用于战略威慑,有必要首先发展全面防御的概念。通过发展进程,有可能使所有部队就其任务、参与方法和相关风险达成充分协议。此外,有了全面防御的概念,就有可能确定有关改变现有防御系统的措施和建议,以提高战略威慑的效力和效率。理论方法论方法对不同历史和地缘政治条件下的全面防御概念进行了理论分析和比较,提出了适应现代多维战略环境条件下战略威慑要求的方法概念发展。
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引用次数: 1
Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on violent extremism and organized crime in the Republic of Serbia COVID-19大流行对塞尔维亚共和国暴力极端主义和有组织犯罪的影响
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/spm79-43080
Marija Đorić, Ilija Životić
The subject of research is the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on violent extremism and organized crime in the Republic of Serbia. The authors used the method of document content analysis and quantitative methods (surveys) for research purposes. The time of the research included the most intense period of the pandemic, and the authors investigated the situation in the Republic of Serbia from March 2020, when the virus was first registered, to mid-2021. The initial hypothesis in the research is that violent extremism and organized crime adapt very quickly to new social changes, which makes them resilient to many social crises. Serbia has a long history of fighting etno-separatist extremism (e.g. the KLA terrorist organization), but the COVID-19 pandemic has intensified the growth of other forms of extremism, such as religious, left-wing, while special attention is focused on right-wing extremism. Namely, the authors determined that in addition to the old generators (what is the post-conflict legacy), we also have two new crucial generators of the extreme right - the COVID-19 pandemic and the migrant crisis. All the fundamental issues on which the extreme right-wingers built their ideology (such as Kosovo and Metohija, the friend-enemy dichotomy) were pushed aside during the pandemic, in order to actualize the problems concerning the "infestation of migrants", conspiracy theories, vaccinations, 5G networks and of panic fear for the survival of the nation. Organized crime also found a way to adapt to the pandemic, and some new areas appeared that criminals quickly prioritized, such as the trade-in of deficient medical equipment, falsification of PCR tests, etc. Drug trafficking was particularly intense, and the Customs Administration seized during the pandemic from 01.03.2020 to 01.08.2021 5630.53 grams of cocaine, which is 60 percent more than in 2019; 2063 grams of heroin, which is a drop to only 5 percent of the total seizure in 2019. In the same period, 1,180 tablets of ecstasy and MDMA were seized, which is five times more than in 2019, as well as 36 weapons. The conclusion is that the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the change in the functioning of violent extremism and organized crime, thus confirming the initial hypothesis of the author, that these are "tough phenomena" that adapt very quickly and easily to emerging social crises. which is down to just 5 percent of total seizures in 2019. In the same period, 1,180 tablets of ecstasy and MDMA were seized, which is five times more than in 2019, as well as 36 weapons. The conclusion is that the COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on the change in the functioning of violent extremism and organized crime, thus confirming the initial hypothesis of the author, that these are "tough phenomena" that adapt very quickly and easily to emerging social crises. which is down to just 5 percent of total seizures in 2019. In the same period, 1,180 tablets of ecstasy and MDMA were seized,
研究主题是2019冠状病毒病大流行对塞尔维亚共和国暴力极端主义和有组织犯罪的影响。作者采用文献内容分析法和定量方法(调查法)进行研究。研究的时间包括大流行最激烈的时期,作者调查了塞尔维亚共和国从2020年3月首次登记该病毒到2021年中期的情况。这项研究的最初假设是,暴力极端主义和有组织犯罪能够非常迅速地适应新的社会变化,这使他们能够抵御许多社会危机。塞尔维亚在打击民族分裂主义极端主义(如科索沃解放军恐怖组织)方面有着悠久的历史,但2019冠状病毒病大流行加剧了宗教、左翼等其他形式极端主义的增长,同时对右翼极端主义给予了特别关注。也就是说,作者确定,除了旧的产生因素(什么是冲突后遗产)之外,我们还有两个新的极端右翼的重要产生因素——COVID-19大流行和移民危机。在大流行期间,极右翼分子建立其意识形态的所有基本问题(如科索沃和梅托希亚,友敌二分法)都被搁置一边,以实现有关“移民入侵”、阴谋论、疫苗接种、5G网络和对民族生存的恐慌恐惧等问题。有组织犯罪也找到了适应这一流行病的方法,犯罪分子似乎很快将一些新领域列为优先事项,例如以旧换新、伪造聚合酶链反应检测等。毒品贩运尤其严重,海关总署在2020年1月3日至2021年1月8日大流行期间缉获了5630.53克可卡因,比2019年增加了60%;2063克海洛因,这一数字下降到2019年缉获总量的5%。在同一时期,缴获了1180片摇头丸和摇头丸,是2019年的5倍多,还有36件武器。结论是,2019冠状病毒病大流行对暴力极端主义和有组织犯罪的运作变化产生了重大影响,从而证实了提交人的最初假设,即这些是“棘手的现象”,能够非常迅速和容易地适应新出现的社会危机。这一比例降至2019年总缉获量的5%。在同一时期,缴获了1180片摇头丸和摇头丸,是2019年的5倍多,还有36件武器。结论是,2019冠状病毒病大流行对暴力极端主义和有组织犯罪的运作变化产生了重大影响,从而证实了提交人的最初假设,即这些是“棘手的现象”,能够非常迅速和容易地适应新出现的社会危机。这一比例降至2019年总缉获量的5%。在同一时期,缴获了1180片摇头丸和摇头丸,是2019年的5倍多,还有36件武器。结论是,2019冠状病毒病大流行对暴力极端主义和有组织犯罪的运作变化产生了重大影响,从而证实了提交人的最初假设,即这些是“棘手的现象”,能够非常迅速和容易地适应新出现的社会危机。
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引用次数: 0
Political environment as a factor of foreign investment in Serbia 政治环境是外国在塞尔维亚投资的一个因素
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/spm79-42699
Ivana S. Domazet, Darko Marjanović, M. Lazić
The purpose of the paper is to research the influence of political environment factors on the inflow of foreign investments in Serbia. Keeping in mind that many countries in Southeast Europe find themselves in a situation where foreign investments are a necessity and a need for whole economic development, this research focused on Serbia owing to its results in foreign investment attraction during a transition period. Primary data collected using a survey technique on 88 foreign companies that invested in Serbia from 2001 to 2019 were analysed using a quantitative methodology (ANOVA and t-test). The results indicate that the stability of the government and the rule of law are the most important conditions for foreign investors in Serbia. This research's originality is reflected in the primary data and research results obtained.
本文的目的是研究政治环境因素对外资流入塞尔维亚的影响。考虑到许多东南欧国家的情况是,外国投资是整个经济发展的必要条件和需要,这项研究集中于塞尔维亚,因为它在过渡时期吸引外国投资方面取得了成果。采用调查技术收集2001年至2019年在塞尔维亚投资的88家外国公司的主要数据,使用定量方法(方差分析和t检验)进行分析。结果表明,政府的稳定和法治是外国投资者在塞尔维亚投资的最重要条件。本研究的独创性体现在获得的原始数据和研究结果上。
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引用次数: 1
General view of the character of the administrative dispute in the first Yugoslav state 第一个南斯拉夫国家行政争端的性质概论
Pub Date : 2023-01-01 DOI: 10.5937/spm79-42720
Vojislav Bačanin
The text is an attempt to re-test certain authorial hypotheses regarding the character of the administrative dispute in the first Yugoslav state, by using descriptive and evaluation methods. In the first part of the paper, the readers are briefly reminded of the basic theoretical assumptions concerning the concept, subject and classification of administrative dispute. The second part of the paper presents a review of the normative framework and accepted legal solutions in the analyzed period. In the third part of the paper, the author addresses the more significant doctrinal dilemmas on this issue. In the last part, instead of concluding, a simplified assessment of the character and legal nature of the administrative dispute in the mentioned period is offered. It is concluded that the system of administrative court control of the administration belonged to the group of European-continental ones, that the subject of the administrative dispute was determined by a combination of the general clause method and the negative enumeration method, and the dispute was defined as a subjective dispute about the legality of the administrative act. A particular emphasis is placed on the existence of an objective administrative dispute and the views on the existence of a form of full jurisdiction in the law of the first Yugoslav state are accepted.
本文试图通过使用描述和评价方法,重新检验关于第一个南斯拉夫国家行政争端性质的某些作者假设。本文第一部分简要介绍了行政纠纷的概念、主体和分类的基本理论假设。论文的第二部分回顾了所分析时期的规范框架和公认的法律解决方案。在本文的第三部分,作者讨论了在这个问题上更重要的教义困境。最后一部分不是结束语,而是对这一时期的行政纠纷的性质和法律性质进行了简单的评价。行政法院对行政的控制制度属于欧洲大陆的行政控制制度,行政争议主体的确定采用一般条款法和否定列举法相结合的方式,并将行政争议界定为对行政行为合法性的主观争议。特别强调客观行政争端的存在,并接受关于在第一南斯拉夫国家的法律中存在一种形式的充分管辖权的观点。
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引用次数: 0
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Srpska Politicka Misao
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