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Unveiling the synergistic mechanism of magnesium hydroxide and silica in modulating polyethersulfone membrane structure and function 揭示了氢氧化镁和二氧化硅协同调节聚醚砜膜结构和功能的机理
Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.cscee.2026.101328
Umi Fathanah , Abubakar Abubakar , Syawaliah Muchtar , Cut Meurah Rosnelly , Zuhra Zuhra , Mirna Rahmah Lubis , Sidik Marsudi
In this study, an environmentally benign dual-additive modification strategy was investigated by incorporating magnesium hydroxide and silica into PES membranes to simultaneously tailor surface chemistry and pore morphology during non-solvent-induced phase separation. Membranes were fabricated using a fixed Mg(OH)2 content with varying silica concentrations and characterized by FESEM, ATR-FTIR, gravimetric porosity analysis, water contact angle measurements, and filtration performance testing, including pure-water flux, humic acid rejection, and flux recovery ratio. All modified membranes retained the asymmetric structure of pristine PES but developed thinner selective layers and more elongated finger-like macrovoids as silica content increased up to the optimum composition (M-MS2.5). At this condition, porosity increased to 67.73 %, the O–H absorption band became more pronounced, and the water contact angle decreased from ∼80° to 53.4° (≈33 % reduction), indicating enhanced interfacial hydrophilicity. These structural and chemical enhancements led to improved transport and fouling behavior, with water flux approaching ∼80 L m−2 h−1 and the flux recovery ratio increasing to 90.91 %. Although humic acid rejection decreased from 79.8 % (pristine) to 69.19 % at the optimum silica loading (2.5 %), it remained within a reasonable ultrafiltration performance range. At higher silica concentrations, however, particle agglomeration and localized structural densification were observed, resulting in increased contact angle, reduced flux, and partial recovery of rejection, indicating a limited compositional window for effective synergy between silica and Mg(OH)2. Overall, the intermediate silica loading (2.5 wt%) provided the most favorable balance between permeability, antifouling stability, and rejection, suggesting strong potential for application in high-throughput treatment of NOM-rich waters.
在这项研究中,研究了一种环境友好的双添加剂改性策略,将氢氧化镁和二氧化硅掺入PES膜中,同时调整非溶剂诱导相分离过程中的表面化学和孔隙形态。采用固定的Mg(OH)2含量和不同的二氧化硅浓度制备膜,并通过FESEM、ATR-FTIR、重量孔隙度分析、水接触角测量和过滤性能测试(包括纯水通量、腐植酸截留率和通量回收率)进行表征。所有改性膜都保留了原始PES的不对称结构,但随着二氧化硅含量的增加(M-MS2.5),选择性层变薄,手指状巨孔变长。在此条件下,孔隙率增加到67.73%,O-H吸收带变得更加明显,水接触角从~ 80°减小到53.4°(≈33%),表明界面亲水性增强。这些结构和化学的增强导致了输运和污染行为的改善,水通量接近~ 80 L m−2 h−1,通量回收率提高到90.91%。虽然在最佳二氧化硅负载(2.5%)下,腐植酸截留率从79.8%(原始)下降到69.19%,但仍在合理的超滤性能范围内。然而,在较高的二氧化硅浓度下,观察到颗粒团聚和局部结构致密化,导致接触角增加,通量降低和部分排斥恢复,这表明二氧化硅和Mg(OH)2之间有效协同作用的成分窗口有限。总体而言,中间二氧化硅负载(2.5 wt%)在渗透性、防污稳定性和截留性之间提供了最有利的平衡,表明在高通量处理富氮氧化物水方面具有很大的应用潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Phytoremediation of septic tank effluent using green roof systems planted with Vernonia elliptica and Campsis radicans 植物修复化粪池污水利用绿色屋顶系统种植的水龙花和坎普斯根
Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.cscee.2026.101329
Cong-Sac Tran , Thi-Yen-Phuong Nguyen , Mai-Nhu Hoang , Thi-Kim-Quyen Vo , Phuoc-Dan Nguyen , Veeriah Jegatheesan , Van-Tung Tra , Xuan-Thanh Bui
Rapid urbanization has led to a reduction in green spaces and an increase in the discharge of untreated wastewater, posing significant environmental challenges. Green roof systems offer a sustainable solution by integrating vegetation into urban infrastructure to deliver ecological and wastewater treatment benefits. This study evaluated the performance of two ornamental climbers, Vernonia elliptica and Campsis radicans, in treating septic tank effluent under two hydraulic loading rates (16 and 50 L/m2.d) in green roof systems. Both plant species demonstrated good adaptability and growth under effluent exposure. At a high hydraulic loading rate (50 L/m2.d), green roofs planted with Campsis radicans achieved removal rates of 13.96 ± 2.14 gCOD/m2.d for organic matter, 0.96 ± 0.24 gN/m2.d for total nitrogen, and 0.02 ± 0.01 gP/m2.d for total phosphorus. These values were nearly four times higher than those at the lower hydraulic loading rate (16 L/m2.d). Vernonia elliptica showed slightly better pollutant removal efficiency compared to Campsis radicans and also provided a larger green coverage area (6 m2), enhancing the aesthetic and ecological value of the green roof. These findings highlight the dual functionality of green roofs as a decentralized wastewater treatment system and a contributor to urban greening.
快速城市化导致绿地面积减少,未经处理的废水排放量增加,对环境构成重大挑战。绿色屋顶系统通过将植被整合到城市基础设施中,提供可持续的解决方案,以实现生态和废水处理的效益。本研究评估了两种观赏攀缘植物,Vernonia elliptica和Campsis radicans在两种水力加载率(16和50 L/m2)下处理化粪池污水的性能。D)绿色屋顶系统。两种植物均表现出良好的污水处理适应性和生长能力。在高水力加载率(50升/平方米。d)种植绿草的绿化屋顶去除率为13.96±2.14 gCOD/m2。d为0.96±0.24 gN/m2。d为总氮,0.02±0.01 gP/m2。D表示总磷。这些数值几乎是较低水力加载速率(16 L/m2.d)时的4倍。与Campsis radicans相比,Vernonia elliptica的污染物去除效率略好,并且提供了更大的绿色覆盖面积(6 m2),增强了绿色屋顶的美学和生态价值。这些发现强调了绿色屋顶作为分散的污水处理系统和城市绿化的双重功能。
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引用次数: 0
Design and process optimization of an integrated turbidity removal unit in a pilot-scale continuous-flow system using hybrid coagulants for decentralized water treatment 采用混合混凝剂进行分散式水处理的中试连续流系统综合除浊装置的设计和工艺优化
Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2026-01-08 DOI: 10.1016/j.cscee.2026.101327
Jedsada Chuiprasert , Sutthichai Boonprasop , Krittawit Sopawanit , Tinn Intraluk , Natthapong Taithipmathukon , Thotsatham Takkawatakarn , Weerawut Chaiwat
This study investigates a compact pilot-scale continuous-flow system for turbidity removal from raw water, integrating chemical and hydrodynamic optimization. A horizontal sedimentation tank was designed and evaluated under varying conditions, including a hybrid inorganic-organic coagulant-flocculant system using polyaluminum chloride (PAC) and polyacrylamide (PAM), coagulant dosages, influent flow rates, aeration, baffle number, and inclination angle. Response surface methodology (RSM) was used to predict and optimize system performance. Optimization indicated that 45 ppm PAC and 2 ppm PAM achieved the highest turbidity removal efficiency of 94.3 % at a low flow rate of 0.5 L/min with aeration at 300 mL/min. At a moderate flow rate of 1.25 L/min, thirteen baffles set at a 75° inclination provided optimal hydraulic performance, yielding 85.3 % removal. Integration of a gravel-sand-anthracite filtration unit further increased removal to 98.3 %. RSM revealed significant interactions between influent flow rate and baffle configuration, enabling prediction and optimization of overall system performance. Mechanistic analysis illustrated floc formation behavior under different PAC and PAM dosages. By combining chemical optimization, hydraulic design, and multiple unit processes in a compact pilot-scale system, this study demonstrates an effective and adaptable approach for decentralized water treatment, suitable for rural, emergency, or resource-limited environments.
本研究研究了一种紧凑的中试规模连续流系统,用于从原水中去除浊度,集成了化学和流体动力学优化。设计了一个卧式沉淀池,并在不同的条件下进行了评估,包括使用聚合氯化铝(PAC)和聚丙烯酰胺(PAM)的无机-有机混凝絮凝剂体系、混凝剂用量、进水流量、曝气量、挡板数和倾角。采用响应面法(RSM)对系统性能进行预测和优化。优化结果表明,45 ppm PAC和2 ppm PAM在低流量0.5 L/min、曝气300 mL/min条件下,浊度去除率最高,达到94.3%。当流速为1.25 L/min时,13个挡板倾角为75°,水力性能最佳,去除率为85.3%。砾石-砂-无烟煤过滤装置的集成进一步将去除率提高到98.3%。RSM揭示了进水流量和挡板配置之间的显著相互作用,从而能够预测和优化系统的整体性能。机理分析说明了不同PAC和PAM用量下絮凝体的形成行为。通过在一个紧凑的中试系统中结合化学优化、水力设计和多个单元过程,本研究展示了一种有效且适应性强的分散式水处理方法,适用于农村、紧急情况或资源有限的环境。
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引用次数: 0
Decarbonizing ethylene production via renewable energy electrification: A techno-economic and environmental assessment 通过可再生能源电气化脱碳乙烯生产:技术经济和环境评估
Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.cscee.2026.101323
Rachid Klaimi , Sabla Y. Alnouri , Aleksa Miladinović , Mirko Stijepović
The transition to sustainable production in the chemical industry is essential for achieving global decarbonization targets. This study explores the electrification of an ethylene plant by replacing its conventional natural gas (NG) boilers with electric boilers powered by renewable energy sources. Unlike previous works that focus on single-technology substitution, this paper provides a comprehensive, system-level assessment of ethylene plant electrification by comparing integrated scenarios of concentrated solar power (CSP), photovoltaic (PV) solar energy, and wind power. The optimal configuration is evaluated based on economic feasibility, environmental impact, and land requirements, offering a methodology that can be adopted for other energy-intensive petrochemical processes. The analysis reveals that while wind energy presents the lowest cost among the available renewable sources, its significant land footprint poses a major challenge, particularly when direct power supply to electric boilers is required. Conversely, CSP, despite being the most expensive option, offers the advantage of simultaneously generating steam and power, enhancing system efficiency. PV-based electrification, positioned between wind and CSP in terms of cost and land use, presents a balanced alternative. The study also investigates the prospects of supplementing on-site renewable generation with imported clean electricity to overcome land constraints and improve operational resilience. The findings provide valuable insights into the trade-offs between cost, sustainability, and spatial constraints in electrifying ethylene production, and they outline potential pathways toward a low-carbon, robust and scalable future for the petrochemical sector.
化学工业向可持续生产过渡对于实现全球脱碳目标至关重要。本研究探讨了乙烯工厂的电气化,用可再生能源驱动的电锅炉取代其传统的天然气锅炉。与以往专注于单一技术替代的研究不同,本文通过比较聚光太阳能(CSP)、光伏太阳能(PV)和风能的综合方案,对乙烯装置电气化进行了全面的系统级评估。根据经济可行性、环境影响和土地需求对最佳配置进行评估,提供一种可用于其他能源密集型石化工艺的方法。分析显示,虽然风能是现有可再生能源中成本最低的,但其巨大的土地足迹构成了重大挑战,特别是在需要直接向电锅炉供电时。相反,尽管CSP是最昂贵的选择,但它提供了同时产生蒸汽和电力的优势,提高了系统效率。基于pv的电气化在成本和土地使用方面介于风能和CSP之间,提供了一种平衡的替代方案。该研究还调查了用进口清洁电力补充现场可再生能源发电的前景,以克服土地限制并提高运营弹性。研究结果为乙烯电气化生产的成本、可持续性和空间限制之间的权衡提供了有价值的见解,并概述了石化行业迈向低碳、稳健和可扩展未来的潜在途径。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluation of antifouling paint particles and plastic in the port of Callao-Peru 秘鲁卡亚俄港防污涂料颗粒和塑料的评价
Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.cscee.2025.101317
Lorgio Valdiviezo-Gonzales , Gabriel De-la-Torre , Fernando García Avila
Antifouling paint particles (APPs) are an emerging but poorly characterized component of particulate contamination in port environments, particularly in the Global South. This study presents the first sediment-based assessment of APPs in the Port of Callao, Peru, one of the most active and industrialized ports in the southeast Pacific. Surface sediment samples were collected across functionally distinct port zones associated with shipyard operations, fueling of small vessels, commercial shipping, fishing activities, and recreational use. APPs and plastic particles larger than 500 μm were isolated, morphologically characterized, and chemically identified using Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy. APPs were detected at all sites, with concentrations ranging from 11.7 to 4725 μg g−1, and the highest loads were observed near the shipyard and fueling areas, indicating that maintenance-related activities were the dominant sources. APPs exhibited a flake-like, brittle morphology and were enriched in metal-based pigments, whereas polyethylene and polypropylene fragments and fibers predominated among plastics. The co-occurrence of APPs and plastics highlights port sediments as sinks for mixed particulate contaminants linked to maritime activities. Although sediment normalization parameters were not assessed, the results provide a baseline dataset for the region and offer conceptual insight into how port zoning and activity types influence APP accumulation. The findings suggest the need to improve the management of hull-cleaning practices and the routine monitoring of paint-derived particles in port environments.
防污涂料颗粒(APPs)是港口环境中一种新兴的颗粒污染成分,但特征不明确,特别是在全球南方。本研究首次对东南太平洋最活跃、工业化程度最高的港口之一秘鲁卡亚俄港的APPs进行了基于沉积物的评估。表层沉积物样本是在与造船厂作业、小型船只加油、商业航运、捕鱼活动和娱乐用途相关的功能不同的港口区域收集的。利用傅里叶变换红外光谱和能量色散x射线光谱对大于500 μm的app和塑料颗粒进行分离、形貌表征和化学鉴定。在所有站点均检测到APPs,浓度范围为11.7 ~ 4725 μg−1,且在船厂和加油区附近检测到最高负荷,表明维修相关活动是主要来源。app呈现片状、脆性形态,并富含金属基颜料,而塑料中以聚乙烯和聚丙烯碎片和纤维为主。APPs和塑料的共存凸显了港口沉积物是与海洋活动有关的混合颗粒污染物的汇。虽然没有评估沉积物归一化参数,但结果提供了该地区的基线数据集,并为港口分区和活动类型如何影响APP积累提供了概念性见解。研究结果表明,需要改善对船体清洁实践的管理,并对港口环境中油漆衍生颗粒进行常规监测。
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引用次数: 0
Experimental investigation of copper leaching from flash furnace dust and integrated mathematical-artificial neural network modeling of kinetics 闪速炉粉尘浸铜试验研究及动力学数学-人工神经网络综合建模
Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.cscee.2025.101319
Hassan Razzani , Hassan Hashemipour , Amirhossain Karimi
Hydrometallurgical methods, particularly leaching, provide an effective approach for recovering copper from low-grade materials. This study experimentally investigates the influence of temperature, time, and acid concentration on leaching of copper from flash furnace dust containing oxide and sulfide forms, focusing on recovery efficiency. Results show that a 10 % increase in temperature (297–327 K) improves copper extraction efficiency by approximately 25 % (from 76 % to 95 %) within 40 min while acid concentration also effects on the extraction efficiency according to 75 % increasing in acid concentration (100–175) improve the efficiency 18 % within 40 min. Additionally by integrating the Shrinking Core Model (SCM) with artificial neural network, a new correlation for diffusion coefficient of acid within the dust is determined as D = 8.62 × 10−10exp(-2.57/T) × C0.0253. Determination of the acid diffusion coefficient within solid particles enables precise prediction of process kinetics and facilitates optimization. This simulation achieved a relative error of approximately 2 %, demonstrating high predictive accuracy in the leaching progress.
湿法冶金法,特别是浸出法,为从低品位材料中回收铜提供了有效途径。实验研究了温度、时间和酸浓度对从含氧化物和硫化物的闪速炉粉尘中浸出铜的影响,重点研究了铜的回收效率。结果表明,温度升高10% (297 ~ 327 K)可使铜的萃取效率在40 min内提高约25%(从76%提高到95%),而酸浓度对萃取效率也有影响,酸浓度升高75%(100 ~ 175)可使萃取效率在40 min内提高18%。此外,将收缩核模型(SCM)与人工神经网络相结合,确定了粉尘中酸扩散系数的新相关性D = 8.62 × 10 - 10exp(-2.57/T) × C0.0253。固体颗粒内酸扩散系数的测定可以精确预测过程动力学并促进优化。该模拟的相对误差约为2%,表明了对浸出过程的高预测精度。
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引用次数: 0
Chlorine transport and decay analysis in water distribution systems using hydraulic simulation and physics- and chemistry-informed graph neural networks 利用水力模拟和物理化学信息图神经网络分析配水系统中的氯输运和衰变
Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.cscee.2025.101321
Mostafa Khodakarami, Víctor R. Vásquez
Maintaining compliant chlorine residuals across water distribution networks is challenging because concentrations evolve under time-varying hydraulics, advective transport, and bulk and wall decay kinetics, while field monitoring is sparse. Physics-based simulators such as EPANET can represent these processes but require careful calibration and can be difficult to use for rapid, network-wide decision support, while purely data-driven models may violate basic transport and reaction constraints and often need dense measurements. This study develops a physics- and chemistry-informed graph neural network (GNN) that learns network-wide chlorine dynamics from hydraulic simulations while embedding domain features that represent connectivity, flow behavior, water age, and decay parameters. Two GNN architectures—a Graph Convolutional Network (GCN) and a Gated Graph Neural Network (GGNN)—are trained on features including pressure, demand, chlorine concentration, flow velocity, headloss, and decay coefficient that capture the system's hydraulic and chemical behavior. The approach is demonstrated on a subsection of Ward 4 in Reno, Nevada using a 240-h EPANET extended-period simulation dataset. Compared with a graph convolutional network baseline, the proposed GGNN improves predictive accuracy, reducing the mean absolute error from about 0.38 to 0.22 mg/L and the root mean square error from about 0.57 to 0.35 mg/L, while increasing coefficient of determination (R2) from about 0.93 to about 0.97. At a representative snapshot, results show that the GGNN significantly outperforms the GCN, achieving lower error and higher R2 (>0.99), due to its iterative message-passing mechanism that captures long-range dependencies. Both models generalize well across hydraulic conditions, enabling accurate virtual sensing for real-time chlorine monitoring in sparsely instrumented networks.
在配水网络中维持符合要求的氯残留量是一项挑战,因为浓度会随着水力学、平流输送、体积和壁面衰变动力学的变化而变化,而现场监测很少。基于物理的模拟器(如EPANET)可以表示这些过程,但需要仔细校准,并且难以用于快速、全网范围的决策支持,而纯粹的数据驱动模型可能违反基本的传输和反应约束,通常需要密集的测量。本研究开发了一种基于物理和化学的图形神经网络(GNN),该网络可以从水力模拟中学习全网络范围的氯动力学,同时嵌入表示连通性、流动行为、水龄和衰变参数的域特征。两种GNN架构——图卷积网络(GCN)和门控图神经网络(GGNN)——根据压力、需求、氯浓度、流速、水头损失和衰减系数等特征进行训练,这些特征可以捕捉系统的水力和化学行为。使用240小时EPANET长周期模拟数据集,在内华达州里诺的Ward 4分区演示了该方法。与图卷积网络基线相比,所提出的GGNN提高了预测精度,平均绝对误差从约0.38降低到0.22 mg/L,均方根误差从约0.57降低到0.35 mg/L,而决定系数(R2)从约0.93提高到约0.97。在一个有代表性的快照中,结果表明GGNN明显优于GCN,实现了更低的误差和更高的R2 (>0.99),这是由于其捕获远程依赖关系的迭代消息传递机制。这两种模型都可以很好地推广各种水力条件,从而在稀疏的仪器网络中实现精确的实时氯监测虚拟传感。
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引用次数: 0
Performance of Chlorella vulgaris in iron removal from mildly neutralized acid mine drainage 普通小球藻在轻度中和酸性矿井废水中的除铁性能
Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.cscee.2025.101316
Lina Patricia Vega Garzon , Paula Moreno , Gloria Lucia Camargo Millán
This research evaluated the performance of Chlorella vulgaris to remove Fe in acid coal mine drainage (AMD) as a resource-efficient treatment strategy. With nutrients and CO2, the microalgae tolerated up to 100 % of AMD, showing growth rates similar to the control. In iron biosorption, after neutralization at pH 4, efficiencies of 79.8–90.8 % in 1 h and up to 92.4 % in 72 h were achieved. The Sips model best described adsorption (R2 = 0.995; 223 mg Fe/g). These results show that minimum neutralization combined with living biomass enhances treatment efficiency and reduces chemical inputs, providing the basis for the scale-up of sustainable phytoremediation systems.
本研究评价了普通小球藻(Chlorella vulgaris)作为一种资源高效处理策略对酸性煤矿废水中铁的去除效果。在营养和二氧化碳的作用下,微藻对AMD的耐受性高达100%,其生长速度与对照组相似。在铁的生物吸附中,在pH 4中和后,1 h的效率为79.8 - 90.8%,72 h的效率高达92.4%。Sips模型最能描述吸附(R2 = 0.995; 223 mg Fe/g)。这些结果表明,最小中和与活生物量的结合提高了处理效率,减少了化学物质的投入,为可持续植物修复系统的规模化提供了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Synthesis of MIL-100(Fe) derived α-Fe2O3 for fabrication of α-Fe2O3/ZIF-8 as photocatalyst of malachite green degradation MIL-100(Fe)衍生α-Fe2O3的合成制备α-Fe2O3/ZIF-8作为孔雀石绿降解光催化剂
Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.cscee.2025.101320
Karelius Karelius , Ratna Ediati , Eko Santoso , Uripto Trisno Santoso , Nuhaa Faaizatunnisa , Rifdah Adya Salsabila , Marvin Horale Pasaribu , Retno Agnestisia
Development of highly efficient photocatalysts for the degradation of persistent and recalcitrant malachite green (MG) dye remains a significant challenge. In this study, mesoporous α-Fe2O3 was synthesized by calcining MIL-100(Fe) and subsequently encapsulated within ZIF-8 to form α-Fe2O3/ZIF-8 (FZF) composites. The resulting heterostructures exhibited a high surface area (566 m2/g), a narrow band gap (∼2.0 eV), improved charge separation, and strong adsorption capacity. Among the samples, FZF-25 achieved 99.35 % removal of 150 ppm MG within 80 min under UV irradiation and maintained excellent stability over four cycles. These findings highlight a promising MOF-derived α-Fe2O3/ZIF-8 approach that enables synergistic adsorption–photocatalysis process.
开发用于降解持久性和难降解性孔雀石绿染料的高效光催化剂仍然是一个重大挑战。在本研究中,通过煅烧MIL-100(Fe)合成介孔α-Fe2O3,并将其包裹在ZIF-8中形成α-Fe2O3/ZIF-8 (FZF)复合材料。所得异质结构具有高比表面积(566 m2/g)、窄带隙(~ 2.0 eV)、电荷分离改善和强吸附能力。其中,FZF-25在紫外照射下,在80 min内对150 ppm MG的去除率达到99.35%,并在4个循环内保持了良好的稳定性。这些发现突出了mof衍生的α-Fe2O3/ZIF-8方法的前景,该方法可以实现协同吸附-光催化过程。
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引用次数: 0
Greenhouse gas emission forecasting analysis in Jakarta towards net zero emissions in 2050 雅加达2050年实现净零排放的温室气体排放预测分析
Q1 Environmental Science Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.cscee.2025.101315
Lina Gozali , Katya Victory Liu , Adianto Adianto , Siti Rohana Nasution , Carla Olivia Doaly
Increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are a serious threat to the environment, especially in Jakarta, which in 2023 recorded emissions of 63 MtCO2e. This study aims to identify the primary factors contributing to GHG emissions in Jakarta, project emission trends until 2050 using pessimistic, optimistic, and net-zero scenarios, and formulate effective mitigation strategies. The variables used are electricity consumption, private vehicle use, industrial energy consumption, waste generation, population growth, green open space, and public transportation usage. The analysis was conducted using various forecasting methods, including multiple linear regression, ARIMA, ARIMAX, SARIMA, SARIMAX, Random Forest, and Multilayer Perceptron. Among these, the Multilayer Perceptron model achieved the highest predictive accuracy in long-term predictions. The results reveal that current mitigation efforts are insufficient to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, indicating the need for more aggressive interventions. Effective strategies include expanding green open space by 7 % annually, reducing motorized vehicle use by 4 %, lowering industrial energy consumption by 3 %, improving waste treatment efficiency by 3 %, and accelerating the transition to renewable energy. These findings highlight the urgency of enhancing climate action and provide a framework that can inform urban emission reduction strategies in other rapidly developing cities seeking sustainable, low-carbon futures.
不断增加的温室气体(GHG)排放对环境构成严重威胁,特别是在雅加达,其2023年的排放量达到6300万吨二氧化碳当量。本研究旨在确定造成雅加达温室气体排放的主要因素,使用悲观、乐观和净零情景预测到2050年的排放趋势,并制定有效的减缓战略。使用的变量包括电力消耗、私家车使用、工业能源消耗、废物产生、人口增长、绿色开放空间和公共交通使用。采用多元线性回归、ARIMA、ARIMAX、SARIMA、SARIMAX、Random Forest、Multilayer Perceptron等多种预测方法进行分析。其中,多层感知器模型在长期预测中获得了最高的预测精度。结果表明,目前的缓解努力不足以在2050年前实现净零排放,这表明需要采取更积极的干预措施。有效的策略包括每年扩大7%的绿色开放空间,减少4%的机动车使用量,降低3%的工业能耗,提高3%的废物处理效率,加速向可再生能源的过渡。这些发现强调了加强气候行动的紧迫性,并提供了一个框架,可以为其他寻求可持续低碳未来的快速发展城市的城市减排战略提供信息。
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Case Studies in Chemical and Environmental Engineering
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