Sustainable Futures最新文献_第4页

Biofibre explorer: An augmented reality (AR) tool to promote circularity through material knowledge 生物纤维探索者：增强现实（AR）工具，通过材料知识促进循环

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101648

Ricardo O’Nascimento , Bruna Petreca , Roberta Morrow , Christopher Dawes , Miriam Ribul , Sameer Rahatekar , Sharon Baurley

Augmented Reality (AR), which overlays digital information on the physical world, is frequently used in textile retail to improve shopping experiences by simulating product appearance and enabling virtual customisation. While these applications foster brand engagement and purchasing decisions, they largely promote consumption rather than encouraging circular behaviours. This study introduces the AR Biofibre Explorer, an innovative tool designed to reconnect consumers with materials and processes by demonstrating the wet spinning process for producing cellulose-based textiles. Through a mixed-methods evaluation, we reveal how the tool enhances understanding of material origins and their applications, promoting informed decisions and circular practices. Aligning with The wellbeing framework for consumer experiences in the circular economy of the textile industry [1], the tool incorporates dimensions such as learning, attachment, competence, and playfulness. This research establishes AR as a means to foster sustainability and circularity in fashion by bridging material knowledge gaps, enhancing consumer engagement, and enabling sustainable consumption choices.

增强现实技术（AR）将数字信息覆盖在物理世界上，经常用于纺织品零售，通过模拟产品外观和实现虚拟定制来改善购物体验。虽然这些应用程序促进了品牌参与和购买决策，但它们在很大程度上促进了消费，而不是鼓励循环行为。本研究介绍了AR生物纤维探索者，这是一种创新工具，旨在通过展示生产纤维素基纺织品的湿纺工艺，使消费者重新了解材料和工艺。通过混合方法评估，我们揭示了该工具如何增强对材料来源及其应用的理解，促进明智的决策和循环实践。与纺织行业循环经济中消费者体验的健康框架一致，该工具结合了学习、依恋、能力和乐趣等维度。本研究将增强现实作为一种手段，通过弥合材料知识差距、增强消费者参与度和实现可持续消费选择，促进时尚的可持续性和循环性。

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引用次数: 0

Reassessing the economic implications of environmental protection measures: the case of the EU’s green payments 重新评估环境保护措施的经济影响：以欧盟的绿色支付为例

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101679

Konstadinos Mattas , Christos Staboulis , Ahmed Alayidi , George Baourakis

The EU’s Green Payments are widely studied and recognized for their role in environmental protection. Building on this well-established role, the present study attempts to delve into the profound effects of such payments on the balanced regional economic development. This focus is motivated by the ongoing debate surrounding their effectiveness, which reveals a perceived discrepancy between environmental and financial implications. Previous assessments have primarily focused on the direct financial implications for farmers, overlooking their broader regional economic effects. This study addresses this gap by investigating the indirect economic benefits generated through Green Payments, using an Input–Output model to trace their impact on output, income, and employment in the region of Thessaly, Greece. Results demonstrate that the benefits of Green Payments extend beyond direct financial returns, indicating that the evaluation of environmental funding should be multidimensional by considering overall benefits due to economic growth generated by the public expenditure itself. Particularly, it is illustrated that Green Payments produce, directly and indirectly, an estimated economic output that exceeds the expenditures for their implementation. On the outcome of policy, results overturn the prevailing perception that green-related payments are detrimental in financial terms and urge the need for more comprehensive approaches when assessing relevant measures to support better documented policy making.

欧盟的绿色支付因其在环境保护方面的作用而受到广泛研究和认可。在这一既定作用的基础上，本研究试图深入探讨此类支付对区域经济平衡发展的深远影响。这种关注的动机是围绕其有效性正在进行的辩论，这揭示了环境影响和财政影响之间的明显差异。以前的评估主要集中在对农民的直接财政影响上，而忽视了其更广泛的区域经济影响。本研究通过调查绿色支付产生的间接经济效益，利用投入产出模型追踪其对希腊色萨利地区产出、收入和就业的影响，解决了这一差距。结果表明，绿色支付的收益超出了直接的财务回报，这表明对环境资金的评估应该是多维的，考虑到公共支出本身带来的经济增长带来的总体效益。特别是，它说明了绿色支付产生，直接和间接，估计的经济产出超过其实施的支出。关于政策的结果，结果推翻了普遍认为与绿色有关的支付在财务方面有害的看法，并敦促在评估相关措施以支持更好地记录政策制定时需要更全面的方法。

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引用次数: 0

Climate concern, wood’s perceived climate benefits, and attitudes as predictors of intention to live in multi-storey wooden buildings 气候问题，木材的感知气候效益，以及作为多层木结构建筑居住意向预测因素的态度

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101617

Anders Roos , Ritva Toivonen , Florencia Franzini , Cecilia Mark-Herbert , Anne M K Toppinen , Camilla Widmark , Anders Qvale Nyrud , Hans Fredrik Hoen

The built environment is a major contributor to global emissions, making the transition to low-carbon construction materials critical for climate mitigation. Multi-storey wooden buildings (MSWBs) have emerged as a sustainable alternative due to their carbon storage capacity and lower embodied emissions compared to conventional multi-storey buildings. However, consumer acceptability for MSWBs remains uncertain. This study draws on cognitive-motivational consumer models, expectancy-value theory, and Signalling Theory to examine the effect of climate beliefs and concern, belief on climate impact of wood construction, and MSWB attitudes on the intention to live in MSWBs. The relationships are tested using structural equation modelling applying survey data from 7053 respondents across seven European countries. The study finds that stronger climate beliefs and concern enhance perceptions of wood’s climate benefits, which in turn influence both attitudes and housing intentions. However, attitudes toward multi-storey wooden buildings—particularly regarding comfort, health, and functionality—are stronger predictors of intention than beliefs alone, indicating a mediating role of attitudes. Cross-country differences highlight the role of cultural and regulatory contexts. The results suggest that policymakers and industry should emphasize and develop the climate benefits of MSWBs alongside improvements in perceived comfort and functionality. This study advances sustainable housing research by integrating environmental psychology and consumer behaviour perspectives.

建筑环境是全球排放的主要来源，因此向低碳建筑材料过渡对减缓气候变化至关重要。与传统的多层建筑相比，多层木结构建筑（MSWBs）由于其碳储存能力和较低的隐含排放量而成为一种可持续的替代方案。然而，消费者对mswb的接受程度仍然不确定。本研究利用认知动机消费者模型、期望价值理论和信号理论来研究气候信念和关注、木结构建筑对气候影响的信念以及城市生活态度对城市生活意愿的影响。使用结构方程模型对这些关系进行了测试，该模型应用了来自七个欧洲国家的7053名受访者的调查数据。研究发现，更强烈的气候信念和关注增强了对木材气候效益的认识，这反过来又影响了态度和住房意向。然而，对多层木结构建筑的态度——特别是关于舒适度、健康和功能的态度——比信念本身更能预测意图，这表明态度在其中起着中介作用。跨国差异突出了文化和监管背景的作用。研究结果表明，政策制定者和行业应强调和发展mswb的气候效益，同时提高感知舒适度和功能。本研究通过整合环境心理学和消费者行为的视角来推进可持续住房的研究。

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引用次数: 0

Evaluating data quality of the sustainable development goals in national innovation demonstration zones, China 中国国家自主创新示范区可持续发展目标数据质量评价

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101631

Mingxuan Lyu , Guizhen He , Hong Zhang , Xiaoyu Zhang , Yong Liu

Data can better measure progress towards achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in a way that is both inclusive and fair. However, several challenges remain, such as insufficient data and poor data quality. As a pivotal part of ensuring high-quality and trustworthy data for evidence-based decision-making and efficient measurement, data quality assessment plays a crucial role. This paper proposes a multidimensional data quality evaluation framework for SDGs data on the basis of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation theory. Nine quality dimensions are defined. Finally, we distribute questionnaires in 11 National Innovation Demonstration Zones for 2030 Sustainable Development Agenda in China to collect data for importance‒performance analysis (IPA). The results reveal that Huzhou has the highest SDG data quality score of 3.912, followed by Guilin with 3.663. Despite its high score, Huzhou’s data quality still has room for improvement. In contrast, Zaozhuang records the lowest SDG data quality score of 2.039, showing that it is particularly struggling in the ecological dimension. Notably, SDG9 exhibits the least variation (the smallest score disparity) among the 11 municipalities, followed closely by SDG8 and SDG10. IPA reveals the following four quadrants: the advantageous area, maintenance area, opportunity area, and focused improvement area. Xuzhou has the most indices in the advantageous area, whereas Ordos has the least in the opportunity area. The focused improvement area highlights the need for improvement in the quality dimensions of credibility and granularity. The study is valuable for data-based decision-making and continuous evaluation on SDG implementation at local, national, and even global scale.

数据可以以包容和公平的方式更好地衡量实现可持续发展目标的进展情况。然而，仍然存在一些挑战，例如数据不足和数据质量差。数据质量评估是保证数据高质量、可信的关键环节，是实现循证决策和高效测量的关键环节。基于模糊综合评价理论，提出了可持续发展目标数据的多维数据质量评价框架。定义了九个质量维度。最后，我们在中国11个2030年可持续发展议程国家创新示范区发放问卷，收集数据进行重要性绩效分析（IPA）。结果显示，湖州SDG数据质量得分最高，为3.912分，桂林市次之，为3.663分。虽然得分很高，但湖州的数据质量仍有提高的空间。相比之下，枣庄的SDG数据质量得分最低，为2.039分，表明其在生态维度上尤为挣扎。值得注意的是，可持续发展目标9在11个城市中表现出最小的变化（得分差距最小），紧随其后的是可持续发展目标8和可持续发展目标10。IPA揭示了以下四个象限：优势区域、维护区域、机会区域和重点改进区域。徐州优势区指标最多，鄂尔多斯机会区指标最少。重点改进领域强调需要在可信度和粒度的质量方面进行改进。该研究对基于数据的决策和可持续发展目标实施在地方、国家甚至全球范围内的持续评估具有重要价值。

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引用次数: 0

Effect of livelihood diversification on households’ food security: A propensity score analysis 生计多样化对农户粮食安全的影响：倾向得分分析

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101632

Ayele Diriba , Dereje Derso , Hakim Hashim

In Ethiopia, agriculture is crucial for reducing poverty and improving food security among rural households. However, the country continues to face significant food insecurity and vulnerability to famine. Livelihood diversification beyond agriculture is often neglected, contributing less than 17 % to the economy, despite its potential benefits for food security. This research analyzes the impact of livelihood diversification on household food security using a mixed-methods approach. A cross-sectional survey was conducted with 384 households across four rural kebeles in the Agarfa district, utilizing semi-structured questionnaires, dietary diversity scores, focus group discussions, key informant interviews, and field observations. Descriptive statistics and inferential methods, including t-tests and Chi-square tests, were applied alongside an econometric model using Propensity Score Matching. The findings show that while households engage in various off-farm and non-farm livelihood strategies, Farm only still constitutes over 83 % of their income. The average Shannon Entropy Index of 0.77 indicates low diversification, with 14.84 % of households experiencing low food security. PSM results demonstrate that, livelihood diversification positively impacts dietary diversity, increasing up to 14.05 % for diversified households. These findings highlight the need for policies that promote livelihood diversification to enhance food security in rural Ethiopia.

在埃塞俄比亚，农业对于减少贫困和改善农村家庭的粮食安全至关重要。然而，该国继续面临严重的粮食不安全和饥荒。农业以外的生计多样化往往被忽视，对经济的贡献不到17%，尽管它对粮食安全有潜在的好处。本研究采用混合方法分析生计多样化对家庭粮食安全的影响。采用半结构化问卷、饮食多样性评分、焦点小组讨论、关键信息提供者访谈和实地观察等方法，对阿加法地区4个农村地区的384户家庭进行了横断面调查。描述性统计和推理方法，包括t检验和卡方检验，与使用倾向得分匹配的计量经济模型一起应用。研究结果表明，虽然家庭从事各种非农业和非农业生计策略，但农业仍然只占其收入的83%以上。平均香农熵指数为0.77，表明多样化程度较低，14.84%的家庭粮食安全水平较低。PSM结果表明，生计多样化正向影响膳食多样性，多样化家庭的膳食多样性增加了14.05%。这些发现突出表明，需要制定促进生计多样化的政策，以加强埃塞俄比亚农村的粮食安全。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing the performance of smart cities in China: A TOPSIS and DEA approach 中国智慧城市绩效评估：TOPSIS和DEA方法

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101651

Wei Chen , Jing Quan , Yongjian Zhang , Yao Zhang

As an effective measure to solve the “urban disease”, smart cities have attracted great attention worldwide. A comprehensive and accurate evaluation of China’s smart cities not only helps to promote China’s smart city projects but also has important significance for other countries. This study first constructed an evaluation system widely applicable to China’s smart cities by reviewing the literature and policies. Then, TOPSIS and DEA were used to evaluate the performance and efficiency of 290 cities in China, and then AISM was used to classify 30 provinces to evaluate the construction levels of smart cities in China. The study results demonstrated that the overall performance of Chinese smart cities is insufficient, and the level of knowledge is low. There is no obvious relationship between urban performance and efficiency. Along different dimensions, there are significant differences between cities, presenting a polarized situation. The AISM results indicate that the adversarial hierarchy diagrams of 30 provinces are olive-shaped structures and pyramid-shaped structures. The evaluation results supplement comprehensive analysis of the development of smart cities in China. To some extent, the introduction of the AISM method promotes the development of smart city evaluation methods and improves the smart city evaluation system.

智慧城市作为解决“城市病”的有效措施，在世界范围内备受关注。对中国智慧城市进行全面、准确的评估，不仅有助于推动中国智慧城市项目的发展，对其他国家也具有重要意义。本研究首先通过对文献和政策的梳理，构建了一个广泛适用于中国智慧城市的评价体系。然后利用TOPSIS和DEA对中国290个城市的绩效和效率进行评价，然后利用AISM对30个省份进行分类，对中国智慧城市的建设水平进行评价。研究结果表明，中国智慧城市整体绩效不足，知识水平较低。城市绩效与效率之间没有明显的关系。在不同维度上，城市间存在显著差异，呈现两极分化的态势。结果表明，30个省区的对抗层级图呈现橄榄形结构和金字塔形结构。评估结果补充了中国智慧城市发展的综合分析。在一定程度上，AISM方法的引入促进了智慧城市评价方法的发展，完善了智慧城市评价体系。

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引用次数: 0

The role of product diversification in enhancing market vendor adaptability and food-system resilience in Senegal, West Africa 产品多样化在提高西非塞内加尔市场供应商适应性和粮食系统复原力方面的作用

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101593

Cyrus Muriithi , Christine Kiria Chege , Issa Ouedraogo , Caroline Mwongera

Severe food insecurity in Senegal, exacerbated by climate shocks and weak infrastructure, underscores the need to understand the role of market vendors in food system resilience. Unlike producers, vendors remain understudied despite their central role in food access. This mixed-methods study examines how product diversity, measured using the Shannon-Wiener index, influences Market Vendor Adaptive Capacity (MVAC) among 691 vendors in Sedhiou and Tambacounda. Survey and interview data reveal that diversity enhances MVAC, particularly for small retail and open-air vendors offering both staple foods and nutrient-rich products. Vendor characteristics such as employing staff, extending credit, and participating in training further strengthen adaptability, while systemic constraints like poor infrastructure and high transport costs limit benefits, especially in rural areas. Results indicate that diversity functions less as an independent driver and more as a strategic outcome of vendor capacity, reframing its role within resilience theory. The study contributes by (1) linking product diversity to adaptive capacity, (2) identifying enabling and constraining factors, and (3) outlining policy directions, including infrastructure investment, financial support, and vendor training. Strengthening these areas can expand food access, bolster resilience, and advance Sustainable Development Goal 2 (Zero Hunger) in Senegal with implication for West Africa.

气候冲击和基础设施薄弱加剧了塞内加尔严重的粮食不安全状况，这突显出有必要了解市场供应商在粮食系统抵御力方面的作用。与生产者不同的是，尽管供应商在食品获取中发挥着核心作用，但他们仍未得到充分的研究。本文采用混合方法研究了采用Shannon-Wiener指数测量的产品多样性如何影响Sedhiou和Tambacounda 691家供应商的市场供应商适应能力（MVAC）。调查和访谈数据显示，多样性提高了MVAC，特别是对于提供主食和营养丰富产品的小型零售和露天摊贩。雇佣员工、发放信贷、参加培训等供应商特征进一步增强了适应性，而基础设施差、运输成本高等系统性约束限制了效益，尤其是在农村地区。研究结果表明，多样性作为供应商能力的独立驱动因素作用较小，而更多的是作为供应商能力的战略结果，重新定义了其在弹性理论中的作用。该研究的贡献包括：(1)将产品多样性与适应能力联系起来；(2)确定有利因素和制约因素；(3)概述政策方向，包括基础设施投资、金融支持和供应商培训。加强这些领域可以扩大粮食获取，增强抵御力，并在塞内加尔推进可持续发展目标2（零饥饿），对西非也有影响。

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引用次数: 0

Gamification and sustainability: A review of approaches for urban mobility and climate change resilience 游戏化与可持续性：城市流动性与气候变化适应能力研究综述

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101589

Qi Zhang , Alessia Grassi , Mauro Vallati

The global urbanisation trend is exacerbating environmental issues and demanding innovative solutions. In this context, the role of human behaviour is increasingly significant, hence it is crucial to increase awareness and promote behavioural change. This systematic literature review explores the critical intersection of sustainable mobility and climate change resilience within urban contexts, focusing on the transformative potential of gamification to drive behavioural change. Sustainable mobility mitigates climate impacts by reducing emissions, while climate change resilience ensures transport systems can withstand environmental disruptions. Integrating these two concepts is crucial for a climate-secure urban future.

The research findings highlight the underexplored potential of Artificial Intelligence techniques for tailoring the gaming experience to the user or context, the need for a more diverse geographical distribution of studies, and the lack of attention given to the characteristics and needs of target users. Further, this review identifies the lack of studies combining sustainable urban mobility and climate change resilience.

全球城市化趋势加剧了环境问题，需要创新的解决方案。在这方面，人类行为的作用日益重要，因此提高认识和促进行为改变至关重要。这篇系统的文献综述探讨了城市环境中可持续交通和气候变化适应能力的关键交叉点，重点关注游戏化推动行为改变的变革潜力。可持续交通通过减少排放减轻气候影响，而气候变化适应能力确保交通系统能够承受环境破坏。整合这两个概念对于气候安全的城市未来至关重要。研究结果强调了人工智能技术在根据用户或情境定制游戏体验方面的潜力未被充分发掘，研究需要更多样化的地理分布，以及缺乏对目标用户特征和需求的关注。此外，本综述还指出，缺乏将可持续城市交通与气候变化适应能力相结合的研究。

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引用次数: 0

Building value: Hedonic pricing analysis of energy performance ratings and house prices in Dublin, Ireland 建筑价值：爱尔兰都柏林能源绩效评级和房价的享乐定价分析

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-11 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101586

J. Peter Clinch , Ciarán Deegan , J. Andrew Kelly

Building energy performance is a key metric in the context of decarbonising the built environment sector. Improving the energy efficiency and energy performance of homes will entail major investment decisions for governments, housing bodies and individuals. Investigating the relationship between house prices and Energy Performance Certificate ratings can inform the decision-making process for those energy efficiency investments, as well as the design and evaluation of home retrofit programmes and supports. Utilising a hedonic pricing methodology, this paper examines the influence energy efficiency attributes have on property list prices in Dublin, Ireland. The analysis is applied to a data set of over 11,000 properties in which property list prices from 2019–2022 are linked to factors pertaining to the quality and location of the property as well as the Irish BER system. The model assesses the monetary value of an uplift in BER, while controlling for factors relating to the home’s size, quality and location as well as the time of sale. Results indicate that a 10% improvement in BER performance is associated with a 0.6% increase in list price. While our results do not establish a causal relationship, these findings demonstrate a price premium of 2.6% for A and B rated homes as compared to D rated homes. In the context of an average 3-bed semi-detached home in Dublin, this translates to €12,200 of added capital value with potential relevance for individual investment decisions and policy support strategies.

在建筑环境部门脱碳的背景下，建筑能源性能是一个关键指标。提高住宅的能源效率和能源性能需要政府、住房机构和个人做出重大投资决策。调查房价与能源绩效证书等级之间的关系可以为这些能源效率投资的决策过程提供信息，也可以为住宅改造方案和支助的设计和评价提供信息。利用享乐定价方法，本文考察了能源效率属性对爱尔兰都柏林房地产清单价格的影响。该分析应用于超过11,000个房产的数据集，其中2019-2022年的房产清单价格与房产的质量和位置以及爱尔兰BER系统相关的因素有关。该模型在控制与房屋大小、质量、位置以及销售时间有关的因素的同时，评估了BER上升的货币价值。结果表明，BER性能每提高10%，标价就会上涨0.6%。虽然我们的结果没有建立因果关系，但这些发现表明，与D级住宅相比，a级和B级住宅的价格溢价为2.6%。在都柏林，一个普通的三床半独立式住宅的背景下，这转化为12,200欧元的附加资本价值，与个人投资决策和政策支持策略具有潜在的相关性。

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引用次数: 0

Agent-based modelling approach to explore efficacy of policies for heat pump uptake 基于主体的建模方法探索热泵吸收政策的有效性

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2026-06-01 Epub Date: 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101601

Wen Xu, Meysam Qadrdan

Decarbonising residential heating is essential for the UK to meet its climate targets, as home heating remains a major carbon emitter. This study employs an agent-based model (ABM), integrating logistic regression and utility theory, to simulate UK household adoption of heat pumps from 2021 to 2050. The model captures economic, psychological, and social factors, calibrated with national survey data and historical adoption trends to align long-term diffusion trajectories. Under a business-as-usual scenario reflecting 2025 policies and prices, the model projects 8.7 million households (30.8 %) will adopt heat pumps by 2050. Increasing government grants to £11,500 could raise adoption to 54 %, while a 20 % electricity price reduction may yield a further 12.2 % increase. Logistic regression identifies homeownership, age, cost awareness, and social influence as key predictors. While financial incentives accelerate uptake, they are insufficient alone to meet net-zero targets. Policies must also address behavioural barriers—such as limited awareness, negative perceptions, or perceived hassle—and leverage social networks by promoting peer learning, showcasing early adopters, and supporting community initiatives. This research highlights the utility of ABM for designing decarbonisation strategies that integrate economic, behavioural, and social dimensions of household decision-making.

住宅供暖脱碳对于英国实现其气候目标至关重要，因为家庭供暖仍然是主要的碳排放源。本研究采用基于主体的模型（ABM），整合逻辑回归和效用理论，模拟2021年至2050年英国家庭采用热泵的情况。该模型捕捉了经济、心理和社会因素，并根据国家调查数据和历史采用趋势进行校准，以调整长期扩散轨迹。在反映2025年政策和价格的一切照旧情景下，该模型预测到2050年将有870万户家庭（30.8%）采用热泵。将政府补助增加到11,500英镑可以将采用率提高到54%，而电价降低20%可能会进一步增加12.2%。逻辑回归确定房屋所有权、年龄、成本意识和社会影响是关键的预测因素。虽然财政激励措施会加速吸收，但仅靠财政激励措施不足以实现净零目标。政策还必须解决行为障碍，如意识有限、负面看法或感知到的麻烦，并通过促进同伴学习、展示早期采用者和支持社区倡议来利用社会网络。这项研究强调了ABM在设计脱碳战略方面的效用，这些战略整合了家庭决策的经济、行为和社会层面。

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引用次数: 0