Sustainable Futures最新文献_第6页

Towards sustainable e-mobility adoption: a technology acceptance model for the global automotive emerging market in Indonesia 迈向可持续电动汽车采用：印尼全球汽车新兴市场的技术接受模式

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101624

Teddy Trilaksono, Eliot Simangunsong, Franky Supriyadi

E-mobility is disrupting the global automotive landscape, creating new opportunities and reshaping supply chains. In Indonesia, this shift challenges Japan’s long-standing market dominance, as Chinese, South Korean, and local firms gain traction. Shifting consumer purchasing preferences remains a significant hurdle, as deeply rooted preferences for the status quo persist. This transitional phase toward e-mobility in Indonesia is further complicated by challenges such as high upfront costs, underdeveloped charging infrastructure, and low levels of consumer awareness. A suitable and sustainable e-mobility model is critically needed to ensure long-term impact and successful adoption. This study uses a qualitative approach using in-depth interviews with 20 key informants. Using an adapted Technology Acceptance Model (TAM) framework, the research explores user preferences, adoption barriers, strategic responses by EV firms, and government incentives. As Southeast Asia’s largest automotive market, Indonesia provides a critical context for examining e-mobility adoption in emerging economies. Findings indicate that technological interest is a stronger driver of EV adoption than traditional factors such as brand prestige, resale value, or influencer marketing. These insights extend TAM’s applicability to disruptive technologies in emerging markets and contribute to the development of more effective adoption strategies for e-mobility.

电动汽车正在颠覆全球汽车格局，创造新的机遇，重塑供应链。在印尼，随着中国、韩国和当地公司的发展，这种转变挑战了日本长期以来的市场主导地位。消费者购买偏好的转变仍然是一个重大障碍，因为对现状的根深蒂固的偏好仍然存在。由于前期成本高、充电基础设施不发达、消费者意识不高等挑战，印尼向电动汽车的过渡阶段变得更加复杂。我们迫切需要一种合适且可持续的电动交通模式，以确保其长期影响和成功采用。本研究采用定性方法，对20名关键线人进行深入访谈。本研究采用技术接受模型（TAM）框架，探讨了用户偏好、采用障碍、电动汽车公司的战略反应和政府激励措施。作为东南亚最大的汽车市场，印尼为研究新兴经济体采用电动汽车提供了一个关键的环境。研究结果表明，与品牌声誉、转售价值或网红营销等传统因素相比，技术兴趣是推动电动汽车采用的更大因素。这些见解扩展了TAM对新兴市场颠覆性技术的适用性，并有助于制定更有效的电动汽车采用策略。

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引用次数: 0

The impact of carbon mitigation policies on business development: from a dynamic simulation aspect in China 碳减排政策对企业发展的影响：基于中国动态模拟的视角

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2026.101642

Qiang Liu, Jiarong Zhou, Shengxia Xu

Climate change presents substantial social and economic challenges, necessitating that nations worldwide create ways to mitigate carbon emissions. As a principal emitter, China must adopt stringent carbon-reduction measures to align environmental sustainability with economic development. Evaluating the efficacy of these rules from the standpoint of micro-level enterprise operations aids in ascertaining the practical utility of the policies. This research utilizes an evolutionary game model and system dynamics to evaluate the effects of China’s carbon emission reduction plans on operational variables, including company revenue and innovation activities. The study assesses the impact of these measures on the green transformation of firms. Mandatory measures elevate the operational expenses of high-carbon firms, potentially hindering their shift to more sustainable practices. While incentive-based policies can alleviate the burden of their green transformation. Consequently, a combination of mandatory measures and incentive policies is essential for facilitating the transition of energy-intensive businesses to low-carbon operations. Furthermore, these policies can foster a market environment that facilitates the green transformation of firms by modifying the preferences of market participants, particularly aiding energy-intensive industries in diminishing their carbon emission intensity. This study highlights that policy simulation can assist policymakers in harmonizing incentive and mandatory policies to create a policy mix that promotes R&D investment while decoupling carbon reduction from company profitability.

气候变化带来了巨大的社会和经济挑战，世界各国必须想方设法减少碳排放。作为主要排放国，中国必须采取严格的碳减排措施，使环境可持续性与经济发展保持一致。从微观企业经营的角度评价这些规则的有效性，有助于确定这些政策的实际效用。本研究运用演化博弈模型和系统动力学来评估中国碳减排计划对企业收入和创新活动等经营变量的影响。本研究评估了这些措施对企业绿色转型的影响。强制性措施提高了高碳企业的运营费用，可能会阻碍它们向更可持续的做法转变。而激励型政策可以减轻其绿色转型的负担。因此，强制性措施和激励政策相结合对于促进能源密集型企业向低碳经营转型至关重要。此外，这些政策可以通过改变市场参与者的偏好来营造有利于企业绿色转型的市场环境，特别是帮助能源密集型产业降低其碳排放强度。本研究强调，政策模拟可以帮助决策者协调激励政策和强制性政策，创造促进研发投资的政策组合，同时将碳减排与公司盈利能力脱钩。

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引用次数: 0

Global ESG sentiment, policy commitments, and sustainability uncertainty: A cross-country analysis 全球ESG情绪、政策承诺和可持续性不确定性：一项跨国分析

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101636

Nargis Sultana

This study examines the temporal patterns, cross-country heterogeneity, and global spillovers of ESG-related uncertainty, with direct implications for achieving multiple Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly SDG 13 (Climate Action), SDG 12 (Responsible Consumption and Production), and SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals). Using a monthly panel dataset of 25 countries from 2002 to 2025 and the newly developed Sustainability Uncertainty Index (ESGUI), we apply fixed effects regression, ANOVA, and a Difference-in-Differences framework to analyze how global ESG sentiment and international policy commitments influence national sustainability risk. The results reveal structural breaks during the 2008 global financial crisis and the post-pandemic period, alongside recurring seasonal peaks in August and December. We find that global ESG sentiment significantly drives national ESGUI scores, with spillover effects particularly pronounced in Asia, and that the 2016 Paris Agreement amplified uncertainty more in countries with stronger institutional frameworks. By highlighting how transnational sustainability narratives and institutional capacity shape ESG-related uncertainty, this study provides actionable guidance for policymakers, regulators, and corporate leaders to design context-sensitive strategies that enhance policy coherence, reduce sustainability-related risk, and accelerate progress toward the SDGs in an interconnected global economy.

本研究考察了与esg相关的不确定性的时间模式、跨国异质性和全球溢出效应，对实现多个可持续发展目标（SDG），特别是可持续发展目标13（气候行动）、可持续发展目标12（负责任的消费和生产）和可持续发展目标17（目标伙伴关系）的直接影响。利用2002年至2025年25个国家的月度面板数据集和新开发的可持续性不确定性指数（ESGUI），我们应用固定效应回归、方差分析和差异中的差异框架来分析全球ESG情绪和国际政策承诺如何影响国家可持续性风险。结果显示，2008年全球金融危机期间和大流行后时期出现了结构性断裂，8月和12月也出现了季节性高峰。我们发现，全球ESG情绪显著推动了各国ESGUI得分，其溢出效应在亚洲尤为明显，2016年《巴黎协定》在制度框架较强的国家进一步放大了不确定性。通过强调跨国可持续发展叙事和机构能力如何塑造esg相关的不确定性，本研究为政策制定者、监管机构和企业领导者提供了可操作的指导，以设计情境敏感的战略，增强政策一致性，降低与可持续发展相关的风险，并在相互关联的全球经济中加速实现可持续发展目标的进程。

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引用次数: 0

Prediction of urban carbon peak by considering water-energy-carbon nexus of land use: The case of Zhengzhou, China 基于土地利用水-能-碳联系的城市碳峰值预测——以郑州市为例

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101606

Zhixiang Xie , Mengyu Feng , Rongqin Zhao , Liangang Xiao , Shuangsheng Yao , Yaohui Gao

Predicting urban carbon peak by considering water-energy-carbon nexus of land use has great significance for improving resources utilization efficiency and realizing carbon peak target. Previous studies were focused on multi-factors nexus evaluation from the perspective of industries or sectors, and less attention was paid to carbon emission prediction by considering multi-factors nexus from the perspective of land use. The paper employed the coupling coordination degree model to measure the water-energy-carbon nexus in Zhengzhou City and used the method of system dynamics to predict water-energy consumption and carbon emissions during 2021–2035. The results showed that there had significant differences in water-energy consumption and carbon emissions of different land use types. The coupling coordination degree changed from the near imbalance state to the high-quality coordination level. The comprehensive scenario had the greatest potential for resource conservation and carbon emission reduction, and the peaks of water, energy and carbon emissions would appear in 2034, 2031 and 2029, respectively. In the future, implementing collaborative utilization planning of resources, promoting utilization efficiency of water and energy, and building a precise carbon emission assessment system should be adopted. This study improved carbon peak prediction by considering multi-elements, which helped providing practical references for promoting water-energy utilization efficiency and carbon emission reduction.

考虑土地利用的水-能-碳关系预测城市碳峰值对提高资源利用效率、实现碳峰值目标具有重要意义。以往的研究多侧重于从产业或部门角度进行多因素关联评价，较少关注从土地利用角度考虑多因素关联的碳排放预测。本文采用耦合协调度模型对郑州市水-能-碳联系进行测度，并采用系统动力学方法对郑州市2021-2035年水-能消耗和碳排放进行预测。结果表明，不同土地利用类型的水能消耗和碳排放存在显著差异。耦合协调度由接近不平衡状态转变为高质量的协调水平。综合情景资源节约和碳减排潜力最大，水、能源和碳排放峰值分别出现在2034年、2031年和2029年。未来应采取实施资源协同利用规划、提高水和能源利用效率、建立精准的碳排放评估体系等措施。本研究通过多要素的结合，对碳峰预测进行了改进，为提高水能利用效率和减少碳排放提供了实践参考。

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引用次数: 0

Measuring urban sustainability in Northeast Asia: Construction of indicators system under decarbonization perspectives 东北亚城市可持续性测度：脱碳视角下指标体系构建

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101611

Xiaolong Zou , Leyan Wen , Ruixi Zhao

Urban areas in Northeast Asia play a significant role in global greenhouse gas emissions. This research centers on the development of an urban sustainability indicators system for Northeast Asian cities, adopting the perspectives of "decarbonization." The objective is to establish a comprehensive assessment framework, measuring the progress of low-carbon urban development in a more micro view rather than a global evaluation, and providing strategic recommendations for balanced economic growth and emission reduction. Through the analysis of decarbonization strategies and policies in Northeast Asian countries, macro-level indicators were formulated. The study uses Analytic Hierarchy Process method to build a hierarchical indicators system and the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution to weight indicators. This evaluation system not only addresses carbon emission reduction but also encompasses multidimensional factors such as economic growth and energy security. These make this indicators system outstanding for micro evaluation in Northeast Asia and showing a more complete evaluation of cities based on quantitative statistics, governments management, and citizens’ views.

东北亚城市地区在全球温室气体排放中发挥着重要作用。本研究以东北亚城市可持续发展指标体系为中心，采用“脱碳”的视角。目的是建立一个综合的评估框架，从更微观的角度而不是全局的评估来衡量低碳城市发展的进展，并为平衡经济增长和减排提供战略建议。通过分析东北亚各国的脱碳战略和政策，制定宏观层面的指标。本研究采用层次分析法构建层次指标体系，并采用理想解相似性偏好排序技术对权重指标进行排序。这一评价体系不仅涉及碳减排，还涉及经济增长、能源安全等多维因素。这使得该指标体系在东北亚地区的微观评价中脱颖而出，在定量统计、政府管理和市民意见的基础上对城市进行了更全面的评价。

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引用次数: 0

The role of social capital in enhancing community participation for sustainable agricultural tourism 社会资本在促进社区参与可持续农业旅游方面的作用

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101612

Nguyen Van Ninh, Tran Van Tam

Community development has become an interdisciplinary field that focuses on empowering local people's participation and promoting sustainable rural transformation. In this field, social capital has received increasing attention as a driving force connecting community participation with agritourism initiatives.

This study is the extends prior bibliometric mappings at the intersection of social capital, community participation, and sustainable agritourism using advanced bibliometric methods. Bibliometric analysis was conducted on 634 docoments, after 227 remove duplicated from two databases, Web of Science (391) and Scopus (470), for the period 1976 to 2025. The analysis used bibliometrix (R) and VOSviewer software to examine co-occurring keywords, thematic clusters, and conceptual evolution over time. The findings identified three prevailing thematic clusters which included; (1) social trust and empowerment in community-based tourism; (2) sustainability in the development of agritourism; and (3) participatory governance and stakeholder engagement. Emerging themes demonstrate growing concern for environmental justice and indigenous knowledge.

The main contribution of this research is to clarify how the core concept of social capital has gradually replaced environmental-centered keywords and become a new academic anchor for future research and policy-making. The study concludes with suggestions for future quantitative research focused on measuring the impact of social capital dimensions on residents’ behavioral intentions to engage in sustainable tourism.

社区发展已成为一个跨学科领域，侧重于增强当地人民的参与能力和促进可持续农村转型。在这一领域，社会资本作为一种将社区参与与农业旅游倡议联系起来的驱动力受到越来越多的关注。本研究是运用先进的文献计量学方法，在社会资本、社区参与和可持续农业的交叉领域扩展先前的文献计量学映射。从Web of Science（391）和Scopus（470）两个数据库中，对1976年至2025年的634篇文献进行了文献计量分析，其中227篇删除了重复的文献。分析使用bibliometrix (R)和VOSviewer软件来检查共同出现的关键词、主题集群和概念随时间的演变。调查结果确定了三个主要专题组，其中包括；(1)社区旅游的社会信任与赋权；(2)农业旅游发展的可持续性；(3)参与式治理和利益相关者参与。新出现的主题表明对环境正义和土著知识的日益关注。本研究的主要贡献在于阐明了社会资本的核心概念如何逐渐取代以环境为中心的关键词，并成为未来研究和政策制定的新学术锚。研究的最后提出了未来定量研究的建议，重点是衡量社会资本维度对居民从事可持续旅游行为意愿的影响。

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引用次数: 0

Determinants of modern agricultural machinery adoption in Northern Bangladesh: A multivariate probit analysis 孟加拉国北部现代农业机械采用的决定因素：多变量概率分析

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101615

Bristy Banik , Hasneen Jahan , Md. Rubel Ahmed , Ravi Nandi , Tamara Jackson , Arifa Jannat

Farm mechanization is expanding in Bangladesh, yet smallholders continue to face constraints such as fragmented landholdings, high machinery costs, limited access to custom hiring services, and insufficient training. This study examines these challenges using secondary data from 5053 households in the Eastern Gangetic Plains collected under the Sustainable and Resilient Farming Systems Intensification project. Although the dataset emphasizes conservation agriculture and contains few machine-specific variables, it remains appropriate for assessing technology adoption in smallholder systems. A subsample of 1761 farmers from Rajshahi and Rangpur districts of Bangladesh was analyzed to assess the joint adoption of four modern machines: the rotavator, laser land leveler, happy seeder, and combine harvester. Unlike studies that consider single technologies, this research investigates how farmers’ adoption decisions interact. The descriptive statistics reveal that 56.8 % of households adopted the rotavator, whereas adoption of the other machines remained below 2.5 %. Multivariate Probit model identified that household size, family labor, off-farm income, machinery ownership, and institutional support generally encouraged adoption, while age, education, and limited familiarity with machinery reduced uptake for some technologies. Correlation results reveal both complementarities and substitution among machines. The findings underscore the need for targeted financial support, training, custom hiring services, and awareness programs to promote inclusive, region-appropriate mechanization. The study adds new empirical evidence by jointly analyzing multiple mechanization choices and clarifying the behavioral and structural conditions needed for sustainable agricultural intensification in smallholder systems.

孟加拉国的农业机械化正在扩大，但小农仍然面临诸如土地所有权分散、机械成本高、获得定制雇佣服务的机会有限以及培训不足等制约因素。本研究利用可持续和抗灾农业系统集约化项目收集的恒河平原东部5053户家庭的二手数据考察了这些挑战。尽管该数据集强调保护性农业，包含的机器特定变量很少，但它仍然适用于评估小农系统的技术采用情况。对来自孟加拉国Rajshahi和Rangpur地区的1761名农民的子样本进行了分析，以评估四种现代机器的联合采用情况：旋耕机、激光平地机、快乐播种机和联合收割机。与考虑单一技术的研究不同，本研究调查了农民的采用决策如何相互作用。描述性统计数据显示，56.8%的家庭采用了旋耕机，而其他机器的采用率仍低于2.5%。多元Probit模型表明，家庭规模、家庭劳动力、非农收入、机械所有权和机构支持通常鼓励采用，而年龄、教育程度和对机械的有限熟悉程度则降低了对某些技术的采用。相关结果显示机器之间既有互补性，也有替代性。研究结果强调，需要有针对性的资金支持、培训、定制招聘服务和宣传计划，以促进包容性和适合地区的机械化。该研究通过联合分析多种机械化选择，阐明小农系统可持续农业集约化所需的行为和结构条件，增加了新的经验证据。

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引用次数: 0

Agent-based modelling approach to explore efficacy of policies for heat pump uptake 基于主体的建模方法探索热泵吸收政策的有效性

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101601

Wen Xu, Meysam Qadrdan

Decarbonising residential heating is essential for the UK to meet its climate targets, as home heating remains a major carbon emitter. This study employs an agent-based model (ABM), integrating logistic regression and utility theory, to simulate UK household adoption of heat pumps from 2021 to 2050. The model captures economic, psychological, and social factors, calibrated with national survey data and historical adoption trends to align long-term diffusion trajectories. Under a business-as-usual scenario reflecting 2025 policies and prices, the model projects 8.7 million households (30.8 %) will adopt heat pumps by 2050. Increasing government grants to £11,500 could raise adoption to 54 %, while a 20 % electricity price reduction may yield a further 12.2 % increase. Logistic regression identifies homeownership, age, cost awareness, and social influence as key predictors. While financial incentives accelerate uptake, they are insufficient alone to meet net-zero targets. Policies must also address behavioural barriers—such as limited awareness, negative perceptions, or perceived hassle—and leverage social networks by promoting peer learning, showcasing early adopters, and supporting community initiatives. This research highlights the utility of ABM for designing decarbonisation strategies that integrate economic, behavioural, and social dimensions of household decision-making.

住宅供暖脱碳对于英国实现其气候目标至关重要，因为家庭供暖仍然是主要的碳排放源。本研究采用基于主体的模型（ABM），整合逻辑回归和效用理论，模拟2021年至2050年英国家庭采用热泵的情况。该模型捕捉了经济、心理和社会因素，并根据国家调查数据和历史采用趋势进行校准，以调整长期扩散轨迹。在反映2025年政策和价格的一切照旧情景下，该模型预测到2050年将有870万户家庭（30.8%）采用热泵。将政府补助增加到11,500英镑可以将采用率提高到54%，而电价降低20%可能会进一步增加12.2%。逻辑回归确定房屋所有权、年龄、成本意识和社会影响是关键的预测因素。虽然财政激励措施会加速吸收，但仅靠财政激励措施不足以实现净零目标。政策还必须解决行为障碍，如意识有限、负面看法或感知到的麻烦，并通过促进同伴学习、展示早期采用者和支持社区倡议来利用社会网络。这项研究强调了ABM在设计脱碳战略方面的效用，这些战略整合了家庭决策的经济、行为和社会层面。

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引用次数: 0

Does carbon tax implementation advance sustainable development in the United Arab Emirates? Perceptions of academics and professionals 碳税的实施是否促进了阿联酋的可持续发展？对学者和专业人士的看法

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101603

Riham Muqattash , Mohamed Chakib Kolsi , Khaldoon Albitar , Mohammad Sharairi

Combating climate change is crucial for entities to ensure long-term sustainability, protect their supply chains, and maintain the trust of environmentally conscious investors and consumers. The aim of this research is to examine the perceptions of professionals and academics regarding carbon tax implementation in the United Arab Emirates (UAE). We examine three main areas: the incentives driving carbon tax adoption among UAE firms, the challenges hindering its implementation, and the role of the carbon tax in advancing sustainable development. We used a quantitative approach to validate our assumptions, with a survey questionnaire administered to academics and professionals operating in the UAE, and performed principal component analysis. According to the results, most of the respondents agree that carbon tax implementation enhances firm profitability and global competitiveness through cost reduction. It promotes green skills among staff and helps firms meet stakeholders’ needs and society expectations. However, most of the respondents agree that the lack of clear regulation, lenient penalties for non-conformity, higher implementation costs, and resistance to shift to eco-friendly operations among some groups with vested interests could impede carbon tax implementation across the nation. Finally, results show that the carbon tax enhances sustainability through its three main pillars: economic, environmental, and social. The study contributes to the bounded empirical literature on carbon taxation in emerging economies and offers practical implications for policymakers and business leaders. It provides useful guidelines for promoting sustainability through the adoption of eco-friendly fiscal policies, a proven instrument for mitigating climate change.

应对气候变化对于实体确保长期可持续性、保护其供应链以及维护具有环保意识的投资者和消费者的信任至关重要。本研究的目的是研究专业人士和学者对阿拉伯联合酋长国（阿联酋）碳税实施的看法。我们研究了三个主要领域：推动阿联酋企业采用碳税的激励因素，阻碍其实施的挑战，以及碳税在促进可持续发展方面的作用。我们使用了定量方法来验证我们的假设，对在阿联酋工作的学者和专业人士进行了问卷调查，并进行了主成分分析。结果显示，大多数受访者认为碳税的实施通过降低成本提高了企业的盈利能力和全球竞争力。它促进员工的绿色技能，并帮助企业满足利益相关者的需求和社会期望。然而，大多数受访者都认为，缺乏明确的监管，对不合规的处罚较轻，实施成本较高，以及一些既得利益集团拒绝转向环保运营，可能会阻碍碳税在全国范围内的实施。最后，研究结果表明，碳税通过其三个主要支柱：经济、环境和社会，提高了可持续性。该研究为有关新兴经济体碳税的有限实证文献做出了贡献，并为政策制定者和商界领袖提供了实际意义。它为通过采用生态友好型财政政策促进可持续发展提供了有用的指导方针，这是一种经过验证的减缓气候变化的工具。

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引用次数: 0

Toward sustainable solutions: green energy poverty, energy justice, and environmental degradation in Ethiopia with moderating effects and countershock simulations 走向可持续解决方案：埃塞俄比亚的绿色能源贫困、能源正义和环境退化及其调节效应和反冲击模拟

IF 4.9 2区社会学 Q2 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Sustainable Futures

Pub Date : 2025-12-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.sftr.2025.101587

Tesfaye Etensa , Tekie Alemu , Mengesha Yayo , Tewodros Negash

The unexplored green energy poverty–environmental degradation nexus in Ethiopia hampers understanding of its environmental impacts and obstructs pathways toward a just and sustainable energy transition. Moreover, the moderating role of energy justice remains inadequately examined, creating critical policy gaps. This study investigates the impacts of green energy poverty and energy justice on environmental degradation, probes energy justice’s moderating role, tests the empirical validity of the STIRPARTY model, and predicts countershocks using ARDL and novel dynamic ARDL simulations on quarterly data from 2000Q1 to 2020Q4. Building on the “stochastic impacts by regression on population, affluence, regulation, and technology” (STIRPART) model, the study proposes an extended STIRPARTY framework by incorporating nonlinearity (Y) to better capture complex interactions. Findings reveal that green energy poverty significantly increases environmental degradation, while energy justice mitigates this impact in both the short and long term. Energy justice strongly moderates green energy poverty, reducing its effect on environmental harm. Simulation analysis based on a 36% change in green energy poverty shows substantial long-term effects, but energy justice helps reduce the environmental burden. The study also finds that emission reductions achieved by lowering green energy poverty may not be fully sustained over time. Environmental degradation increases with green energy poverty but at a diminishing rate until a threshold is reached. Policy implications include developing an energy justice framework for equitable, affordable, and sustainable access; bridging urban–rural energy gaps through renewables; creating public–private partnerships for co-financing, technical support, and local joint management; implementing sector-wide energy efficiency programs; forecasting environmental countershocks; and enforcing sustainable land-use policies.

埃塞俄比亚未开发的绿色能源贫困-环境退化关系阻碍了对其环境影响的理解，并阻碍了通往公正和可持续能源转型的道路。此外，能源公正的调节作用仍未得到充分审查，造成了重大的政策空白。本研究探讨了绿色能源贫困和能源公平对环境退化的影响，探讨了能源公平的调节作用，检验了STIRPARTY模型的实证有效性，并利用ARDL和新型动态ARDL模拟对2000年第一季度至2020年第四季度的季度数据进行了预测。在“人口、富裕、监管和技术的回归随机影响”（STIRPART）模型的基础上，该研究提出了一个扩展的STIRPARTY框架，通过纳入非线性(Y)来更好地捕捉复杂的相互作用。研究结果表明，绿色能源贫困显著加剧了环境退化，而能源公平在短期和长期内都缓解了这种影响。能源公正有力地缓和了绿色能源贫困，减少了其对环境危害的影响。基于36%的绿色能源贫困变化的模拟分析显示了实质性的长期影响，但能源公平有助于减轻环境负担。该研究还发现，通过降低绿色能源贫困而实现的减排可能无法长期完全持续。环境退化随着绿色能源贫穷而加剧，但在达到某一阈值之前，其速度会逐渐减少。政策影响包括制定能源司法框架，以实现公平、负担得起和可持续的获取；通过可再生能源弥合城乡能源差距；建立公私合作伙伴关系，共同融资、技术支持和地方联合管理；实施全行业的能源效率计划；预测环境冲击；执行可持续土地使用政策。

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