Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.4.389-393.394-398
A. L. Ponomareva, N. S. Polonik, A. Obzhirov, R. Shakirov, R. Grigorov, O. Schmale, S. Mau
The article presents data on the distribution of bioindicator thermophilic hydrocarbon-oxidizing microorganisms in the surface layer of bottom oil and gas bearing sediments in the Kara Sea and their interrelation with methane content. Cultivated thermophilic microorganisms capable of using oil hydrocarbons as the only carbon source found in the zone of no constant heat flow are indicators of oil and gas deposits. In the work, enrichment cultures of bacteria were created, which were incubated at the different temperatures of +5, +30 and +60 °C. It was found that, the hydrocarbon-oxidizing microbiome is mainly represented by meso- and psychrophilic microorganisms. The stations with the highest methane content were dominated by mesophilic oil-oxidizing microorganisms. Thermophilic bacteria of this trophic type were identified only at one of the studied stations, located in the southern part of the Novozemelskaya Depression.
{"title":"Interrelation of methane distribution with psychro-, meso- and thermophilic hydrocarbon-oxidizing microorganisms in the bottom sediments of the Kara Sea","authors":"A. L. Ponomareva, N. S. Polonik, A. Obzhirov, R. Shakirov, R. Grigorov, O. Schmale, S. Mau","doi":"10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.4.389-393.394-398","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.4.389-393.394-398","url":null,"abstract":"The article presents data on the distribution of bioindicator thermophilic hydrocarbon-oxidizing microorganisms in the surface layer of bottom oil and gas bearing sediments in the Kara Sea and their interrelation with methane content. Cultivated thermophilic microorganisms capable of using oil hydrocarbons as the only carbon source found in the zone of no constant heat flow are indicators of oil and gas deposits. In the work, enrichment cultures of bacteria were created, which were incubated at the different temperatures of +5, +30 and +60 °C. It was found that, the hydrocarbon-oxidizing microbiome is mainly represented by meso- and psychrophilic microorganisms. The stations with the highest methane content were dominated by mesophilic oil-oxidizing microorganisms. Thermophilic bacteria of this trophic type were identified only at one of the studied stations, located in the southern part of the Novozemelskaya Depression.","PeriodicalId":34500,"journal":{"name":"Geosistemy perekhodnykh zon","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69578419","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.2.084-098.099-112
A. Malyshev, L. Malysheva
The paper describes the algorithm and the results of the seismic hazard estimate in the Sakhalin and Southern Kurils region based on the data of the Japan Regional Catalogue (JMA). A nonlinear differential equation of the second order is used as a mathematical model, and algorithms for optimization and predictability estimation are presented by the author's solutions. The forecasting algorithm is based on the search for seismic activity zones in which the current activity trends correspond to foreshock sequences recorded before strong earthquakes (precedents) that have already occurred. The earthquake time is calculated with extrapolating the detected trends to the level of activity that occurred at the time of the precedent earthquake. By the example of precedent foreshock sequences in Japan, it is shown that the lead time of such a forecast reaches 10–15 years and its implementation is due to the preservation and stability of the identified trends. A map of potentially dangerous zones for Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands and some examples of calculating the time of strong earthquakes according to the JMA catalogue as of August 31, 2018 are presented. Action sequence in identifying the potentially dangerous trends in seismic activity and the specifics of possible use of the technique in the Sakhalin region are considered.
{"title":"Precedent-extrapolation estimate of the seismic hazard in the Sakhalin and the Southern Kurils region","authors":"A. Malyshev, L. Malysheva","doi":"10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.2.084-098.099-112","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.2.084-098.099-112","url":null,"abstract":"The paper describes the algorithm and the results of the seismic hazard estimate in the Sakhalin and Southern Kurils region based on the data of the Japan Regional Catalogue (JMA). A nonlinear differential equation of the second order is used as a mathematical model, and algorithms for optimization and predictability estimation are presented by the author's solutions. The forecasting algorithm is based on the search for seismic activity zones in which the current activity trends correspond to foreshock sequences recorded before strong earthquakes (precedents) that have already occurred. The earthquake time is calculated with extrapolating the detected trends to the level of activity that occurred at the time of the precedent earthquake. By the example of precedent foreshock sequences in Japan, it is shown that the lead time of such a forecast reaches 10–15 years and its implementation is due to the preservation and stability of the identified trends. A map of potentially dangerous zones for Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands and some examples of calculating the time of strong earthquakes according to the JMA catalogue as of August 31, 2018 are presented. Action sequence in identifying the potentially dangerous trends in seismic activity and the specifics of possible use of the technique in the Sakhalin region are considered.","PeriodicalId":34500,"journal":{"name":"Geosistemy perekhodnykh zon","volume":"28 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69578443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.3.223-228
M. Valitov, Z. Proshkina
The authors revealed an effect of gravitational field variations for the principal lunar wave O1, which preceded nearby earthquakes, using for the first time the approach based on the method of calculating tidal parameters in a sliding window with various window width (from 30 to 120 days). Since the observed data were free from the oceanic load, this effect is assumed to be associated with a local restructuring of the density medium in the solid Earth. A seasonal cyclycity was revealed for the K1 wave. Such cyclycity was not taken into account when compiling a solid Earth model PREM (preliminary reference Earth model).
{"title":"Change in the amplitude indicators in tidal variations of gravity during the preparation of nearby earthquakes","authors":"M. Valitov, Z. Proshkina","doi":"10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.3.223-228","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.3.223-228","url":null,"abstract":"The authors revealed an effect of gravitational field variations for the principal lunar wave O1, which preceded nearby earthquakes, using for the first time the approach based on the method of calculating tidal parameters in a sliding window with various window width (from 30 to 120 days). Since the observed data were free from the oceanic load, this effect is assumed to be associated with a local restructuring of the density medium in the solid Earth. A seasonal cyclycity was revealed for the K1 wave. Such cyclycity was not taken into account when compiling a solid Earth model PREM (preliminary reference Earth model).","PeriodicalId":34500,"journal":{"name":"Geosistemy perekhodnykh zon","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69578636","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.1.055-059
Y. Rebetsky
In the article by N.A. Sycheva and L.M. Bogomolov, the authors proposed to combine the interrelated data on the stress drop in the earthquake sources, ∆σ, and reduced seismic energy, ePR, to analyze the dependence of these parameters on earthquake scale along with expansion of the measurement statistics (assessments). The dependence of these parameters of a source on the seismic moment or on the earthquake magnitude within 2.2 ≤ М ≤ 4.0 magnitude range has been determined using the example of the Northern Tien Shan (Bishkek geodynamic polygon with the KNET network). The author of the letter to the editor notes the article conclusions to be limited, because such relationship is only manifested within the more or less narrow range of the magnitudes. Attention is also drawn to the semantic difference between the ∆σ and ePR parameters. It is the reduced seismic energy that reflects the mean strain in the source area, and its appliance to the analysis of scale dependences of earthquake sources is more informative.
{"title":"On some aspects of the article «On the stress drop in North Eurasia earthquakes source-sites versus specific seismic energy»","authors":"Y. Rebetsky","doi":"10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.1.055-059","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.1.055-059","url":null,"abstract":"In the article by N.A. Sycheva and L.M. Bogomolov, the authors proposed to combine the interrelated data on the stress drop in the earthquake sources, ∆σ, and reduced seismic energy, ePR, to analyze the dependence of these parameters on earthquake scale along with expansion of the measurement statistics (assessments). The dependence of these parameters of a source on the seismic moment or on the earthquake magnitude within 2.2 ≤ М ≤ 4.0 magnitude range has been determined using the example of the Northern Tien Shan (Bishkek geodynamic polygon with the KNET network). The author of the letter to the editor notes the article conclusions to be limited, because such relationship is only manifested within the more or less narrow range of the magnitudes. Attention is also drawn to the semantic difference between the ∆σ and ePR parameters. It is the reduced seismic energy that reflects the mean strain in the source area, and its appliance to the analysis of scale dependences of earthquake sources is more informative.","PeriodicalId":34500,"journal":{"name":"Geosistemy perekhodnykh zon","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69578822","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.4.378-388
V. Kazmiruk
Environmental pollution by resistant to degradation microparticles of synthetic polymer materials (microplastics) is one of the growing global problems nowadays. At the same time, research on the behavior of plastic microparticles in the environment is only at an early stage, as well as the development of methods for preventing and regulating microplastic contamination of water bodies. For the first time in world scientific practice, the author proposed to use the barrier role of macrophytes for these purposes. А number of mechanisms directly and indirectly leading to the microplastic retention by macrophytes have been identified based on field and laboratory experiments with plastic microparticles with different polymer matrix (polyethylene, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate, polyester) and air-water and immersed vegetation, as well as plants with leaves floating on the water surface. According to the predominance of a particular physical process, these mechanisms can be combined into four groups: (1) The appearance of additional resistance to the movement of water and air masses. Change in the kinematic structure of water and air flows promotes slowing down the movement of microparticles, their sedimentation and retention by plants; (2) Decreasing the kinetic energy of wind waves and raindrops by thickets of macrophytes prevents repeated movement of already trapped microparticles; (3) Mechanical retention of plastic microparticles occurs as a result of the existence of irregularities in the structure of plants, sieve-like structures made of interweaving of stems and leaves, the bulk of plant litter, adhesion of plant surfaces and microparticles, which is enhanced by the sticky surfaces of the periphyton; (4) The attraction and adhesion of plastic microparticles to plants and to each other occurs as a result of the interaction of electric fields.
{"title":"Mechanisms of plastic microparticles retention by buffer zones with macrophytes","authors":"V. Kazmiruk","doi":"10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.4.378-388","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.4.378-388","url":null,"abstract":"Environmental pollution by resistant to degradation microparticles of synthetic polymer materials (microplastics) is one of the growing global problems nowadays. At the same time, research on the behavior of plastic microparticles in the environment is only at an early stage, as well as the development of methods for preventing and regulating microplastic contamination of water bodies. For the first time in world scientific practice, the author proposed to use the barrier role of macrophytes for these purposes. А number of mechanisms directly and indirectly leading to the microplastic retention by macrophytes have been identified based on field and laboratory experiments with plastic microparticles with different polymer matrix (polyethylene, polystyrene, polyethylene terephthalate, polyester) and air-water and immersed vegetation, as well as plants with leaves floating on the water surface. According to the predominance of a particular physical process, these mechanisms can be combined into four groups: (1) The appearance of additional resistance to the movement of water and air masses. Change in the kinematic structure of water and air flows promotes slowing down the movement of microparticles, their sedimentation and retention by plants; (2) Decreasing the kinetic energy of wind waves and raindrops by thickets of macrophytes prevents repeated movement of already trapped microparticles; (3) Mechanical retention of plastic microparticles occurs as a result of the existence of irregularities in the structure of plants, sieve-like structures made of interweaving of stems and leaves, the bulk of plant litter, adhesion of plant surfaces and microparticles, which is enhanced by the sticky surfaces of the periphyton; (4) The attraction and adhesion of plastic microparticles to plants and to each other occurs as a result of the interaction of electric fields.","PeriodicalId":34500,"journal":{"name":"Geosistemy perekhodnykh zon","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69578409","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.2.153-166
Yu.V. Kostrov, V. A. Degtyarev, A. Marinin, E. Khmarin, P. Kamenev
During a geological fieldworks in the northeast of Sakhalin Island in order to study the siliceous deposits of the Pilskaya formation and to develop a technique for locating oil deposits in unconventional fractured reservoirs, natural outcrops of Cenozoic deposits on the Schmidt Peninsula and in the Pogranichny depression were studied. Samples were taken for analytical studies (geomechanical, geochemical, lithological, etc.), structural forms (folds, minor faults, slickensides, tension gashes, joints, shear fractures), which are indicators of tectonic deformations of the rock massive, were studied. It is shown that the intensity of fracturing strongly depends on the lithology, the position of the observation point relative to disjunctive and/or plicative structures. The direction of the joints varies depending on the position relative to the elements of the local folds and on the position of the block (with a small-block structure). According to the results of field observations it is shown, that the zone of intense dislocations has an extremely insignificant thickness usually the first tens of meters. An extremely nonuniformity of the stress field in the vicinity of the Pogranichniy depression is noted, which is reflected in the nature of the dipping planes, structural patterns and parageneses. In the northern part of the syncline, numerous flowing oil shows associated with open fracturing are identified, which obviously indicates the extension regime that continues up to this day.
{"title":"Study of fractured reservoirs during geological exploration in the north-eastern part of the Sakhalin Island","authors":"Yu.V. Kostrov, V. A. Degtyarev, A. Marinin, E. Khmarin, P. Kamenev","doi":"10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.2.153-166","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.2.153-166","url":null,"abstract":"During a geological fieldworks in the northeast of Sakhalin Island in order to study the siliceous deposits of the Pilskaya formation and to develop a technique for locating oil deposits in unconventional fractured reservoirs, natural outcrops of Cenozoic deposits on the Schmidt Peninsula and in the Pogranichny depression were studied. Samples were taken for analytical studies (geomechanical, geochemical, lithological, etc.), structural forms (folds, minor faults, slickensides, tension gashes, joints, shear fractures), which are indicators of tectonic deformations of the rock massive, were studied. It is shown that the intensity of fracturing strongly depends on the lithology, the position of the observation point relative to disjunctive and/or plicative structures. The direction of the joints varies depending on the position relative to the elements of the local folds and on the position of the block (with a small-block structure). According to the results of field observations it is shown, that the zone of intense dislocations has an extremely insignificant thickness usually the first tens of meters. An extremely nonuniformity of the stress field in the vicinity of the Pogranichniy depression is noted, which is reflected in the nature of the dipping planes, structural patterns and parageneses. In the northern part of the syncline, numerous flowing oil shows associated with open fracturing are identified, which obviously indicates the extension regime that continues up to this day.","PeriodicalId":34500,"journal":{"name":"Geosistemy perekhodnykh zon","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69578542","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.2.172-178
G. Shevchenko, V. Chastikov
In addition to the distribution of modified water of the Amur River runoff in the Aniva Bay, remote from its mouth, according to the data from 2012–2013 (Shevchenko G.V., Chastikov V.N. Distribution of the Amur waters in the eastern part of the Aniva Bay in late autumn. Meteorology and Hydrology, 2021, no. 1), the materials of the oceanological survey carried out in this basin in mid-November 2001 are presented. It is shown that desalinated water entered the bay in an unusually wide stream in the upper 30-meter layer and occupied a vast area, almost to the middle of the bay. At the same time, the differences in salinity with local waters were less than usual. The most probable reason for such specific features of oceanological conditions in 2001 was an increase (by about 30% in comparison with the usual values) of the wind of west-northwest rhumb of an offshore character. The obtained results show that the influence of this water can manifest itself not only near the eastern coast of the bay, as was demonstrated in the mentioned article, but also at a distance of more than 30 km from it. Accordingly, abrupt decreases in salinity can affect the marine biota not only of the coastal complex, but also inhabiting the central part of the bay.
{"title":"On the unusual distribution of modified Amur River water in the Aniva Bay (Sakhalin) in November 2001","authors":"G. Shevchenko, V. Chastikov","doi":"10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.2.172-178","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.2.172-178","url":null,"abstract":"In addition to the distribution of modified water of the Amur River runoff in the Aniva Bay, remote from its mouth, according to the data from 2012–2013 (Shevchenko G.V., Chastikov V.N. Distribution of the Amur waters in the eastern part of the Aniva Bay in late autumn. Meteorology and Hydrology, 2021, no. 1), the materials of the oceanological survey carried out in this basin in mid-November 2001 are presented. It is shown that desalinated water entered the bay in an unusually wide stream in the upper 30-meter layer and occupied a vast area, almost to the middle of the bay. At the same time, the differences in salinity with local waters were less than usual. The most probable reason for such specific features of oceanological conditions in 2001 was an increase (by about 30% in comparison with the usual values) of the wind of west-northwest rhumb of an offshore character. The obtained results show that the influence of this water can manifest itself not only near the eastern coast of the bay, as was demonstrated in the mentioned article, but also at a distance of more than 30 km from it. Accordingly, abrupt decreases in salinity can affect the marine biota not only of the coastal complex, but also inhabiting the central part of the bay.","PeriodicalId":34500,"journal":{"name":"Geosistemy perekhodnykh zon","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69578559","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.4.320-327
V. Leksin
The engineering and geophysical studies are carried out before installation of a drilling platform and construction of engineering structures in the water areas in order to identify and map geological hazards, including the anomalous gas zones, from which involuntary release of hydrocarbons is possible, when the drill string passes through in the upper part of the geological section. The paper presents the results of expeditionary studies carried out at the site of engineering and geological surveys using continuous seismoacoustic profiling. The site is in the Sea of Okhotsk at the northeastern shelf of Sakhalin Island and adjoins Nogliksky district of the Sakhalin Region. Two seismoacoustic complexes were identified according to the data of continuous seismoacoustic profiling in the section of the study area, which differ from each other in the nature of the wave pattern. Gas zones and paleo-incisions were found in the bottom part of the section. The identified geological hazards are mapped and must be taken into account during further drilling of wells and construction of engineering structures.
{"title":"Paleo-incisions and gas zones of Pliocene-Quaternary sediments at the site of engineering and geological surveys on the shelf of Sakhalin Island","authors":"V. Leksin","doi":"10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.4.320-327","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.4.320-327","url":null,"abstract":"The engineering and geophysical studies are carried out before installation of a drilling platform and construction of engineering structures in the water areas in order to identify and map geological hazards, including the anomalous gas zones, from which involuntary release of hydrocarbons is possible, when the drill string passes through in the upper part of the geological section. The paper presents the results of expeditionary studies carried out at the site of engineering and geological surveys using continuous seismoacoustic profiling. The site is in the Sea of Okhotsk at the northeastern shelf of Sakhalin Island and adjoins Nogliksky district of the Sakhalin Region. Two seismoacoustic complexes were identified according to the data of continuous seismoacoustic profiling in the section of the study area, which differ from each other in the nature of the wave pattern. Gas zones and paleo-incisions were found in the bottom part of the section. The identified geological hazards are mapped and must be taken into account during further drilling of wells and construction of engineering structures.","PeriodicalId":34500,"journal":{"name":"Geosistemy perekhodnykh zon","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69578756","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.1.060-066
O.A. Korablev
Heat exchange between the three media – water, ice and air – must be taken into account when predicting the ice dynamics, drift and redistribution. It is known that the components of the heat balance vary quite strongly depending on the boundary of which media they are considered. Evaporation and turbulent heat exchange with the atmosphere are great in the areas of pure water, while evaporation from the surface of ice and snow is much less pronounced. To study the appearance of ice, it is necessary to consider only those environments between which intense heat exchange takes place; these environments are water and the atmosphere. This article studies the thermodynamic processes occurring over the seawater area by the statistical method of correlation analysis using the data on air temperature collected at hydrometeorological stations and those on the ice area from open sources. A new predictor is proposed, indicating a high correlation of 0.90–0.95 between the sum of degrees of daily temperature difference at the hydrometeorological stations of Okha and Oymyakon and the data on the area of the sea ice in the northwestern region of the Sea of Okhotsk on the last day of the month.
{"title":"On a new predictor affecting ice formation in the Sea of Okhotsk","authors":"O.A. Korablev","doi":"10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.1.060-066","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.1.060-066","url":null,"abstract":"Heat exchange between the three media – water, ice and air – must be taken into account when predicting the ice dynamics, drift and redistribution. It is known that the components of the heat balance vary quite strongly depending on the boundary of which media they are considered. Evaporation and turbulent heat exchange with the atmosphere are great in the areas of pure water, while evaporation from the surface of ice and snow is much less pronounced. To study the appearance of ice, it is necessary to consider only those environments between which intense heat exchange takes place; these environments are water and the atmosphere. This article studies the thermodynamic processes occurring over the seawater area by the statistical method of correlation analysis using the data on air temperature collected at hydrometeorological stations and those on the ice area from open sources. A new predictor is proposed, indicating a high correlation of 0.90–0.95 between the sum of degrees of daily temperature difference at the hydrometeorological stations of Okha and Oymyakon and the data on the area of the sea ice in the northwestern region of the Sea of Okhotsk on the last day of the month.","PeriodicalId":34500,"journal":{"name":"Geosistemy perekhodnykh zon","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2021-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"69578388","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2021-01-01DOI: 10.30730/gtrz.2021.5.1.027-045
A. Zakupin, N. Boginskaya
The work presents the results of a retrospective analysis of the seismicity of Sakhalin using the LURR method of mid-term earthquake prediction for 1997–2019. All previously performed computations are reduced to a single database of seismological data (catalogue) of the Sakhalin Branch of the Federal Research Center “United Geophysical Survey of RAS”. Similar to previous studies, the Sakhalin territory was scanned by applying computational areas in the form of circles with a radius of one degree; however, the resolution was increased. The entire territory was covered by such zones with a step of 0.5 degrees in latitude and longitude, with the grid being detailed down to 0.1 degrees in three most dangerous seismogenerating zones. As a result, the number of computational samples was increased, which allowed the omission of anomalies in the LURR parameter during computations to be avoided. Due to a reasonable binding of the lower bound of the magnitude for predicted events to the upper bound of the magnitude range of the computational sample (M = 5), the number of objects for the retrospective forecast was increased by 3 times for the study period. 323 computational samples (119 of which are basic and 204 ones are detailed) were processed on the territory of the island. 15 alarm periods were obtained, which geographically represent all zones of moderate and strong earthquake generation on Sakhalin Island. As a result, 17 out of 19 earthquakes with M ≥ 5 occurred in the areas with anomalies during the alarm periods not exceeding three years. Out of 15 periods, 4 turned to be false. Thus, 75 % of the alarms predicted 89 % of the earthquakes.
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