From an initial survey of public sector experts, the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) was regarded as a relatively high performer among public sector institutions in Zambia. This paper utilizes a political settlements approach to track how the distribution of power within Zambia’s political settlement influenced ZRA’s tax policy and administration from its inception in 1994 to 2019. We find that ZRA’s performance over the reference period was highly uneven. Broadly, 1994-2005 was a formative period for the authority, with relatively low performance. Then, between 2006 and 2015, due in part to strong political will and external support, ZRA achieved and maintained a favorable level of professionalism and specialization, held a clear mandate, and established tax targets and internal organizational reforms. But, throughout, ZRA struggled to overcome structural constraints to revenue generation. Policy stability came out of an era of ‘technocratic consensus’ that emerged in the 2000s. Generally, ideas shared by political rules and leading bureaucrats centered on growth, fiscal prudency and domestic resource mobilization aimed at gaining more autonomy, namely weaning Zambia off donor support and conditionalities. This push was augmented in 2011 by Patriotic Front’s (PF) political commitment to resource nationalism. In contrast, 2015-2019 saw a new political settlement dynamic that affected the role of most economic institutions in Zambia, which exposed ZRA to undue political influence. Ultimately, with a high number of political turnovers amidst the increasingly fractious settlement during the reference period, ZRA experienced episodes of vulnerability to politically motivated institutional reforms and reorganizations at the political expediency of the ruling elite.
{"title":"Zambia Revenue Authority Professional Performance Amidst Structural Constraints, 1994–2019","authors":"Caesar Cheelo, M. Hinfelaar","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3716824","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3716824","url":null,"abstract":"From an initial survey of public sector experts, the Zambia Revenue Authority (ZRA) was regarded as a relatively high performer among public sector institutions in Zambia. This paper utilizes a political settlements approach to track how the distribution of power within Zambia’s political settlement influenced ZRA’s tax policy and administration from its inception in 1994 to 2019. We find that ZRA’s performance over the reference period was highly uneven. Broadly, 1994-2005 was a formative period for the authority, with relatively low performance. Then, between 2006 and 2015, due in part to strong political will and external support, ZRA achieved and maintained a favorable level of professionalism and specialization, held a clear mandate, and established tax targets and internal organizational reforms. But, throughout, ZRA struggled to overcome structural constraints to revenue generation. Policy stability came out of an era of ‘technocratic consensus’ that emerged in the 2000s. Generally, ideas shared by political rules and leading bureaucrats centered on growth, fiscal prudency and domestic resource mobilization aimed at gaining more autonomy, namely weaning Zambia off donor support and conditionalities. This push was augmented in 2011 by Patriotic Front’s (PF) political commitment to resource nationalism. In contrast, 2015-2019 saw a new political settlement dynamic that affected the role of most economic institutions in Zambia, which exposed ZRA to undue political influence. Ultimately, with a high number of political turnovers amidst the increasingly fractious settlement during the reference period, ZRA experienced episodes of vulnerability to politically motivated institutional reforms and reorganizations at the political expediency of the ruling elite.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"8 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-10-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"114981960","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Yingwen Deng, Ole‐Kristian Hope, Cyndia Wang, Min Zhang
Using a shock to the Chinese capital market and unique and detailed audit-adjustment data, this paper investigates the effect of a capital-market liberalization program on auditors’ adjustments to their clients’ financial reports. Employing difference-in-differences tests with propensity-score matching and firm fixed effects, we find that the capital-market liberalization induced by the implementation of the Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect increases auditor prudence and leads to audit-adjustment changes stimulated by greater reputational and litigation risks for auditors. However, whereas the liberalization significantly decreases the frequency and magnitude of upward audit adjustments, its effect on the probability or magnitude of downward audit adjustments is largely conditional. Further evidence shows that the effect is more pronounced for companies with high trading volume from Hong Kong investors, audited by the largest audit firms, and with low financial transparency.
{"title":"Capital-Market Liberalization and Auditors' Accounting Adjustments: Evidence from a Quasi-Experiment","authors":"Yingwen Deng, Ole‐Kristian Hope, Cyndia Wang, Min Zhang","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3501952","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3501952","url":null,"abstract":"Using a shock to the Chinese capital market and unique and detailed audit-adjustment data, this paper investigates the effect of a capital-market liberalization program on auditors’ adjustments to their clients’ financial reports. Employing difference-in-differences tests with propensity-score matching and firm fixed effects, we find that the capital-market liberalization induced by the implementation of the Shanghai - Hong Kong Stock Connect increases auditor prudence and leads to audit-adjustment changes stimulated by greater reputational and litigation risks for auditors. However, whereas the liberalization significantly decreases the frequency and magnitude of upward audit adjustments, its effect on the probability or magnitude of downward audit adjustments is largely conditional. Further evidence shows that the effect is more pronounced for companies with high trading volume from Hong Kong investors, audited by the largest audit firms, and with low financial transparency.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"127 11","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"120886504","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Gerard J. van den Berg, Christine Dauth, Pia Homrighausen, G. Stephan
We analyze a German labor market program that subsidizes skill-upgrading occupational training for workers employed in small and medium sized enterprises. This WeGebAU program reimburses training costs but take-up has been low. In an experimental setup, we mailed 10,000 brochures to potentially eligible workers, informing them about the importance of skill-upgrading occupational training in general and about WeGebAU in particular. Using combined survey and register data, we analyze the impact of receiving the brochure on workers' awareness of the program, on take-up of WeGebAU and other training, and on job characteristics. The survey data reveal that the brochure more than doubled workers' awareness of the program. We do not find effects on WeGebAU program take-up or short-run labor market outcomes in the register data. However, the information treatment positively affected participation in other (unsubsidized) training among employees under 45 years.
{"title":"Informing Employees in Small and Medium Sized Firms About Training: Results of a Randomized Field Experiment","authors":"Gerard J. van den Berg, Christine Dauth, Pia Homrighausen, G. Stephan","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3301717","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3301717","url":null,"abstract":"We analyze a German labor market program that subsidizes skill-upgrading occupational training for workers employed in small and medium sized enterprises. This WeGebAU program reimburses training costs but take-up has been low. In an experimental setup, we mailed 10,000 brochures to potentially eligible workers, informing them about the importance of skill-upgrading occupational training in general and about WeGebAU in particular. Using combined survey and register data, we analyze the impact of receiving the brochure on workers' awareness of the program, on take-up of WeGebAU and other training, and on job characteristics. The survey data reveal that the brochure more than doubled workers' awareness of the program. We do not find effects on WeGebAU program take-up or short-run labor market outcomes in the register data. However, the information treatment positively affected participation in other (unsubsidized) training among employees under 45 years.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"9 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126371708","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Randomized controlled trials have been used in economics for 50 years, and intensively in economic development for more than 20. There has been a great deal of useful work, but RCTs have no unique advantages or disadvantages over other empirical methods in economics. They do not simplify inference, nor can an RCT establish causality. Many of the difficulties were recognized and explored in economics 30 years ago, but are sometimes forgotten. I review some of the most relevant issues here. The most troubling questions concern ethics, especially when very poor people are experimented on. Finding out what works, even if such a thing is possible, is in itself a deeply inadequate basis for policy
{"title":"Randomization in the Tropics Revisited: A Theme and Eleven Variations","authors":"Angus Deaton","doi":"10.3386/w27600","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.3386/w27600","url":null,"abstract":"Randomized controlled trials have been used in economics for 50 years, and intensively in economic development for more than 20. There has been a great deal of useful work, but RCTs have no unique advantages or disadvantages over other empirical methods in economics. They do not simplify inference, nor can an RCT establish causality. Many of the difficulties were recognized and explored in economics 30 years ago, but are sometimes forgotten. I review some of the most relevant issues here. The most troubling questions concern ethics, especially when very poor people are experimented on. Finding out what works, even if such a thing is possible, is in itself a deeply inadequate basis for policy","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"6 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-07-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131355612","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
We provide experimental evidence for the existence of “rent stigma,” a preference for owning goods or real estate to renting them. In one experiment, anonymous respondents preferred owning a car or house to renting them, even though the transaction was constructed to be identical in each case in terms of economic payoffs and risk. In a second experiment, a survey of law students who were asked how much they would pay to own rather than rent a laptop found similar results. However, we found little or no evidence for our hypotheses that rent stigma would decline in conditions in which the advantages of renting were made salient. The existence of rent stigma raises concerns that the framing of a transaction in terms of purchasing rather than rent may be used to manipulate consumers.
{"title":"Ownership and Rent Stigma: Two Experiments","authors":"Tamar Kricheli-Katz, E. Posner","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3630602","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3630602","url":null,"abstract":"\u0000 We provide experimental evidence for the existence of “rent stigma,” a preference for owning goods or real estate to renting them. In one experiment, anonymous respondents preferred owning a car or house to renting them, even though the transaction was constructed to be identical in each case in terms of economic payoffs and risk. In a second experiment, a survey of law students who were asked how much they would pay to own rather than rent a laptop found similar results. However, we found little or no evidence for our hypotheses that rent stigma would decline in conditions in which the advantages of renting were made salient. The existence of rent stigma raises concerns that the framing of a transaction in terms of purchasing rather than rent may be used to manipulate consumers.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"154 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"131980281","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
G. Cruces, Jawara Hamidou, Adama Touray, Fatoumata Singhateh
Mobile money has been heralded as a way to foster financial inclusion. While it has become popular in developing countries, most notably in African nations, there are still strong barriers to its adoption and usage. The purpose of this study is to examine the extent to which a lack of information and high prices are limiting factors in the adoption of mobile money. We implemented a simple randomized controlled trial among a group of difficult-to- access potential users: mobile phone users in The Gambia who had opened mobile money wallets but had not made a transaction. We offered meaningful price discounts on withdrawal charges, and made these discounts salient by reminding users about them every month for a period of six months. Our analysis measures different dimensions of mobile money use by drawing from administrative mobile phone company records. We also carried out a post- treatment survey to gauge knowledge about, and attitudes towards, mobile money. Our results indicate that treated individuals were substantially more aware than controls about the uses of mobile wallets and about the meaningful discounts of 15% and 30% offered. However, only a small fraction of treated individuals started using mobile wallets, and the difference was not statistically significant. Perceptions of safety, trust in the platform, and service reliability were not significantly different between treated and controls. However, treated individuals were more likely to perceive the service charges to be expensive. We interpret this as evidence that our population of interest was uninformed about the platform at large. While our treatment increased awareness about its capabilities and operation, potentially fostering its adoption, it also increased awareness of the relatively high fees it involves, which in turn limited usage. Both a lack of information and high prices need to be addressed to foster the adoption and usage of mobile money in developing countries.
{"title":"Information, Price, and Barriers to Adoption and Usage of Mobile Money Evidence from a Field Experiment in the Gambia","authors":"G. Cruces, Jawara Hamidou, Adama Touray, Fatoumata Singhateh","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3673541","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3673541","url":null,"abstract":"Mobile money has been heralded as a way to foster financial inclusion. While it has become popular in developing countries, most notably in African nations, there are still strong barriers to its adoption and usage. The purpose of this study is to examine the extent to which a lack of information and high prices are limiting factors in the adoption of mobile money. We implemented a simple randomized controlled trial among a group of difficult-to- access potential users: mobile phone users in The Gambia who had opened mobile money wallets but had not made a transaction. We offered meaningful price discounts on withdrawal charges, and made these discounts salient by reminding users about them every month for a period of six months. Our analysis measures different dimensions of mobile money use by drawing from administrative mobile phone company records. We also carried out a post- treatment survey to gauge knowledge about, and attitudes towards, mobile money. Our results indicate that treated individuals were substantially more aware than controls about the uses of mobile wallets and about the meaningful discounts of 15% and 30% offered. However, only a small fraction of treated individuals started using mobile wallets, and the difference was not statistically significant. Perceptions of safety, trust in the platform, and service reliability were not significantly different between treated and controls. However, treated individuals were more likely to perceive the service charges to be expensive. We interpret this as evidence that our population of interest was uninformed about the platform at large. While our treatment increased awareness about its capabilities and operation, potentially fostering its adoption, it also increased awareness of the relatively high fees it involves, which in turn limited usage. Both a lack of information and high prices need to be addressed to foster the adoption and usage of mobile money in developing countries.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"38 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-28","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"126197337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Michael Sanders, Christyan Mitchell, Aisling Ni Chonaire
Sample size, or power calculations are an integral part of conducting randomised controlled trials. Rules of thumb can be useful in these calculations, but can have negative consequences if the rules do not match up with reality. We review a large database of effect sizes in education, and find that average effect sizes are roughly one third the size of those described as ‘small’ in a widely used rule of thumb, that less than 5% of all effect sizes meet the threshold for ‘small’ and that effect sizes are fairly stable over time and the age of children involved. We find that interventions that are clustered for randomisation typically produce smaller effect sizes, and that researchers’ intuition about the ordinal ranking of findings is fairly accurate. We suggest a revised rule of thumb for education randomised trials.
{"title":"Effect Sizes in Education Trials in England","authors":"Michael Sanders, Christyan Mitchell, Aisling Ni Chonaire","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3532325","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3532325","url":null,"abstract":"Sample size, or power calculations are an integral part of conducting randomised controlled trials. Rules of thumb can be useful in these calculations, but can have negative consequences if the rules do not match up with reality. We review a large database of effect sizes in education, and find that average effect sizes are roughly one third the size of those described as ‘small’ in a widely used rule of thumb, that less than 5% of all effect sizes meet the threshold for ‘small’ and that effect sizes are fairly stable over time and the age of children involved. We find that interventions that are clustered for randomisation typically produce smaller effect sizes, and that researchers’ intuition about the ordinal ranking of findings is fairly accurate. We suggest a revised rule of thumb for education randomised trials.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"11 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-02-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"129023443","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Community-driven development programs are a popular model for service delivery and socioeconomic development, especially in countries reeling from civil strife. Despite their popularity, the evidence on their impact is mixed at best. Most studies thus far are based on data collected during, or shortly after, program implementation. Community-driven development's theory of change, however, allows for a longer time frame for program exposure to produce impact. This study examines the longer term impact of a randomized community-driven development program implemented in 1,250 villages in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo between 2007 and 2012. The study team returned to these villages in 2015, eight years after the onset of the program. The study finds evidence of the physical endurance of infrastructure built by the program. However, it finds no evidence that the program had an impact on other dimensions of service provision, health, education, economic welfare, women's empowerment, governance, and social cohesion. These findings suggest that, although community-driven development programs may effectively deliver public infrastructure, longer term impacts on economic development and social transformation appear to be limited.
{"title":"Assessing the Longer Term Impact of Community-Driven Development Programs: Evidence from a Field Experiment in the Democratic Republic of Congo","authors":"Peter van der Windt","doi":"10.1596/1813-9450-9140","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-9140","url":null,"abstract":"Community-driven development programs are a popular model for service delivery and socioeconomic development, especially in countries reeling from civil strife. Despite their popularity, the evidence on their impact is mixed at best. Most studies thus far are based on data collected during, or shortly after, program implementation. Community-driven development's theory of change, however, allows for a longer time frame for program exposure to produce impact. This study examines the longer term impact of a randomized community-driven development program implemented in 1,250 villages in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo between 2007 and 2012. The study team returned to these villages in 2015, eight years after the onset of the program. The study finds evidence of the physical endurance of infrastructure built by the program. However, it finds no evidence that the program had an impact on other dimensions of service provision, health, education, economic welfare, women's empowerment, governance, and social cohesion. These findings suggest that, although community-driven development programs may effectively deliver public infrastructure, longer term impacts on economic development and social transformation appear to be limited.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"133440632","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Jason Acimovic, Chris Parker, D. Drake, Karthik Balasubramanian
Problem definition: Firms providing products and services to low-income base of the pyramid (BOP) customers are increasingly utilizing independent contractor agents rather than employees in their distribution models. We empirically investigate the best way to help agents perform better. Academic/practical relevance: BOP customers represent one-third of the world’s economy but make five United States dollars or less daily. Providing goods and services to these customers is difficult for traditional firms because most retail activity occurs at small-scale independent outlets. Improving agent performance can help firms reach customers in this environment. We enhance the literature on agent-based models in BOP settings, decision making, technology in developing economies, and field experiments. Methodology: In partnership with a Tanzanian mobile money operator, we perform a randomized, controlled trial with 4,771 agents to examine how differing types of guidance, and whether in-person training is offered, impact agents’ inventory management. Mobile money is a platform whereby firms in developing economies provide financial services to customers via cell phones. Mobile money agents service customer withdrawals and deposits as branchless banking outlets. Every day, they decide how much money to stock to service customers’ transactions, from which they earn commissions. Results: We find that those agents given only explicit recommendations (as opposed to summary statistics or both) who were invited to in-person training (as opposed to simply received an automated notification) improve their performance. Agents in other treatments showed no statistically significant change. The effect is concentrated in agents who never replenished their money at a bank and whose money inventory levels were low in the pretreatment period. Managerial implications: We show empirically how firms can better manage agents, thereby improving the value proposition of serving BOP customers. We show the utility of segmentation based on agent heterogeneity. This can improve firm performance, agent profits, and customer service.
{"title":"Show or Tell? Improving Inventory Support for Agent-Based Businesses at the Base of the Pyramid","authors":"Jason Acimovic, Chris Parker, D. Drake, Karthik Balasubramanian","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3186575","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3186575","url":null,"abstract":"Problem definition: Firms providing products and services to low-income base of the pyramid (BOP) customers are increasingly utilizing independent contractor agents rather than employees in their distribution models. We empirically investigate the best way to help agents perform better. Academic/practical relevance: BOP customers represent one-third of the world’s economy but make five United States dollars or less daily. Providing goods and services to these customers is difficult for traditional firms because most retail activity occurs at small-scale independent outlets. Improving agent performance can help firms reach customers in this environment. We enhance the literature on agent-based models in BOP settings, decision making, technology in developing economies, and field experiments. Methodology: In partnership with a Tanzanian mobile money operator, we perform a randomized, controlled trial with 4,771 agents to examine how differing types of guidance, and whether in-person training is offered, impact agents’ inventory management. Mobile money is a platform whereby firms in developing economies provide financial services to customers via cell phones. Mobile money agents service customer withdrawals and deposits as branchless banking outlets. Every day, they decide how much money to stock to service customers’ transactions, from which they earn commissions. Results: We find that those agents given only explicit recommendations (as opposed to summary statistics or both) who were invited to in-person training (as opposed to simply received an automated notification) improve their performance. Agents in other treatments showed no statistically significant change. The effect is concentrated in agents who never replenished their money at a bank and whose money inventory levels were low in the pretreatment period. Managerial implications: We show empirically how firms can better manage agents, thereby improving the value proposition of serving BOP customers. We show the utility of segmentation based on agent heterogeneity. This can improve firm performance, agent profits, and customer service.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"25 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"127670069","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Frequently in experiments there is not only variance in the reaction of participants to treatment. The heterogeneity is patterned: discernible types of participants react differently. In principle, a finite mixture model is well suited to simultaneously estimate the probability that a given participant belongs to a certain type, and the reaction of this type to treatment. Yet often, finite mixture models need more data than the experiment provides. The approach requires ex ante knowledge about the number of types. Finite mixture models are hard to estimate for panel data, which is what experiments often generate. For repeated experiments, this paper offers a simple two-step alternative that is much less data hungry, that allows to find the number of types in the data, and that allows for the estimation of panel data models. It combines machine learning methods with classic frequentist statistics.
{"title":"Estimating Heterogeneous Reactions to Experimental Treatments","authors":"C. Engel","doi":"10.2139/ssrn.3322322","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3322322","url":null,"abstract":"Frequently in experiments there is not only variance in the reaction of participants to treatment. The heterogeneity is patterned: discernible types of participants react differently. In principle, a finite mixture model is well suited to simultaneously estimate the probability that a given participant belongs to a certain type, and the reaction of this type to treatment. Yet often, finite mixture models need more data than the experiment provides. The approach requires ex ante knowledge about the number of types. Finite mixture models are hard to estimate for panel data, which is what experiments often generate. For repeated experiments, this paper offers a simple two-step alternative that is much less data hungry, that allows to find the number of types in the data, and that allows for the estimation of panel data models. It combines machine learning methods with classic frequentist statistics.","PeriodicalId":345692,"journal":{"name":"Political Methods: Experiments & Experimental Design eJournal","volume":"16 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-01-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"123690779","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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