EPPO Bulletin最新文献

As part of the 2020–2030 strategic framework for the International Plant Protection Convention, a focus group on climate change was established in 2021. The focus group includes scientists and plant health officials from around the world. The group has been raising awareness of the importance of climate change to plant health, promoting the consideration of climate change in all IPPC activities and drafting technical resources for NPPOs. The group is due to continue its activities until 2025.

This paper provides a comprehensive overview of the modelling tools available for integrating climate change impacts into pest risk assessments (PRA), elucidating the existing methodologies and models employed to understand the potential distributions of pests based on historical data and under future climate change scenarios. We highlight the strengths and weaknesses of these models and provide commentary on their ability to identify emerging threats due to climate change accurately and adequately, considering pest establishment likelihood, host crop exposure and the distribution of impacts. The simplest methods are based on climate-matching models, degree-day development models and Köppen–Geiger climate classification. Correlative species distribution models derive species–environment relationships and have been applied to PRA with mixed success. When fitted models are applied to different continents they are usually challenged to extrapolate climate suitability patterns outside the climate space used to train them. Global climate change is creating novel climates, exacerbating this ‘transferability’ problem. Some tools have been developed to reveal when these models are extrapolating. Process-oriented models, which focus on mechanisms and processes rather than distribution patterns, are inherently more reliable for extrapolation to novel climates such as new continents and future climate scenarios. These models, however, require more skill and generally more knowledge of the species to craft robust models.

In the context of risk analysis, horizon scanning activity is a necessary component of any foresight process. This applies also to the specific context of biological invasions, supported and accelerated by climate change and global trade. Today, various institutions and research centres are equipped with a set of tools and methods for early warning on emerging threats. In the case of plant pests, web signals, trade data, community science data and sentinel plants are important sources of information, then analysed and elaborated through multicriteria approaches. The scope of this paper is to provide an overview of current practices, highlighting strengths and shortcomings, and to inform future research and policy initiatives about opportunities to address global change in this field.

Climate change is widely recognized as a critical global challenge with far-reaching consequences. It affects pest species by altering their population dynamics, actual and potential distribution areas, as well as interactions with their hosts and natural enemies. Climate change thus has potentially important implications for multiple areas of the pest risk analysis (PRA) process. The importance of including climate change in PRA may vary depending on the climatic context of the PRA area in relation to the speed of climate change. If climatic changes within the time horizon of interest are minimal, their potential impact on pest risk is reduced accordingly. For PRAs in a changing climate, we need to be concerned with how future climates could alter our assessment of the risks currently posed by each pest species. While climate can influence the distribution and abundance of pests and hosts alike, its significance will vary depending on the situation. The inclusion of climate change within a PRA also presents challenges. The dynamic nature of climate change, with its complex interactions and uncertainties, can make it difficult to predict and assess the future risks posed by pests accurately. Uncertainties related to future predictions may be much greater than the potential effects associated with climate change and species’ responses to it. This paper outlines examples of the effects of climate change on hosts and different groups of pests, including invertebrates, pathogens, weeds and vector species. The aim is to review the opportunities and challenges of incorporating climate change into PRA, offering insights for a variety of stakeholders including policymakers on this topic.

The evaluation of the potential for newly arrived species to survive and the determination whether a founder population can become established and subsequently spread and cause negative impacts are crucial considerations when performing a pest risk assessment in plant health. Climate change has clear consequences concerning the potential range of pests, and their potential for spread and impacts. Despite its importance, no guidance exists to support the evaluation of whether and how climate change should be incorporated into pest risk assessment. This paper reviews how climate change has been considered so far, not only in the area of pest risk assessment but also in other domains and provides guidance on how its incorporation could affect the overall assessment. Furthermore, from this analysis, some possible solutions for incorporating climate change into pest risk assessment are provided, taking into account that its outcomes have profound political, economic, social and environmental implications.

The prevailing climatic conditions found in a region are the primary determinant of the suitability of that area to support pests and diseases. Pest risk assessment is the primary biosecurity tool used to assess that suitability, but the changing climatic conditions owing to greenhouse gas emissions are rarely considered. Future changes in temperature and rainfall patterns may make the environmental suitability of a region more or less favourable for existing populations and cause populations to move to other regions where those pests and diseases may not be established. Future projections of climate change are uncertain, which makes it challenging to incorporate climate change into pest risk analysis, but aspects of human psychology can help us think about how to communicate the risks within the constraints of those uncertainties more effectively. Here we review the broad trends, magnitude and uncertainties of climate change, and the interpretation of climate change scenarios, and make recommendations for appropriate framing and communication of the future risks posed by climate change within pest risk assessments.

A molecular tool has been set up for the unambiguous molecular identification of the ambrosia beetle, Xyleborinus saxesenii (Ratzeburg, 1837) (Coleoptera Curculionidae Scolytinae), the cosmopolitan fruit-tree pinhole borer, widely distributed in temperate regions of the five continents, where it infests a wide range of hardwoods and softwoods. The test was based on real-time PCR with TaqMan probe technology and was developed on whole insect bodies (adults) as well as on frass produced by the beetle. The test was shown to meet the criteria established by EPPO for the harmonization of molecular diagnostic methods. In particular, the test gave good results in terms of analytical specificity (inclusivity and exclusivity) and analytical sensitivity, and was fully repeatable and reproducible. Since X. saxesenii is one of the most commonly intercepted ambrosia beetles during phytosanitary controls worldwide, this practical diagnostic tool will be useful for its rapid identification of the beetle in biological material (frass, body fragments). The test can be useful in countries where X. saxesenii is a quarantine species, as well as in the EPPO region.

During official phytosanitary surveys for citrus pests, the Afrotropical citrus leafhopper, Penthimiola bella (Stal) (Hemiptera, Cicadellidae), was found in Andalusia (Southern Spain) and Madeira island (Portugal). This data and tracking of a photo sharing website show that P. bella has been present in the south and east of the Iberian Peninsula and on the island of Madeira since 2017 and 2022, respectively. The species was found throughout the year, mainly in or around citrus plots. Morphological description of adults and some biological notes are provided.