Pub Date : 2024-04-11DOI: 10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.08
Fernando Barrientos del Monte, Edgar Everardo Pantoja López
Objective/context: This article analyzes the efficiency level of candidate selection methods for presidential elections in Latin America by governing parties, according to the degree of openness and internal fractionalization. The guiding hypothesis is that methods with greater openness generate greater internal fractionalization and, consequently, offer worse electoral outcomes; whereas more exclusionary methods generate less fractionalization and better electoral outcomes. Methodology: Twenty-three candidate selection processes for the presidency by ruling parties, and an equal number of presidential elections in Argentina, Chile, Mexico, and Uruguay between 1990 and 2020, under conditions of electoral integrity, are comparatively reviewed, and the degrees of openness are analyzed based on the proposal of an internal cohesion index and its effects on electoral success. Conclusions: From the cases analyzed, it can be concluded that there is no relationship between the openness of the selection methods and the fractionalization of the parties and electoral success, in this case, of those in government; and that while there is the idea that more internal democracy increases the probability of winning elections, this actually depends on other variables. Originality: The article aims to contribute to the literature on presidential candidate selection processes, particularly of governing parties, since elections are also an evaluation of the government, and the continuity or change is at stake. The selection method has effects on the parties and can define their efficiency or lack thereof in maintaining power.
{"title":"Does More Internal Democracy Lead to Greater Electoral Success? The Selection of Presidential Candidates by Governing Parties in Latin America","authors":"Fernando Barrientos del Monte, Edgar Everardo Pantoja López","doi":"10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.08","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.08","url":null,"abstract":"Objective/context: This article analyzes the efficiency level of candidate selection methods for presidential elections in Latin America by governing parties, according to the degree of openness and internal fractionalization. The guiding hypothesis is that methods with greater openness generate greater internal fractionalization and, consequently, offer worse electoral outcomes; whereas more exclusionary methods generate less fractionalization and better electoral outcomes. Methodology: Twenty-three candidate selection processes for the presidency by ruling parties, and an equal number of presidential elections in Argentina, Chile, Mexico, and Uruguay between 1990 and 2020, under conditions of electoral integrity, are comparatively reviewed, and the degrees of openness are analyzed based on the proposal of an internal cohesion index and its effects on electoral success. Conclusions: From the cases analyzed, it can be concluded that there is no relationship between the openness of the selection methods and the fractionalization of the parties and electoral success, in this case, of those in government; and that while there is the idea that more internal democracy increases the probability of winning elections, this actually depends on other variables. Originality: The article aims to contribute to the literature on presidential candidate selection processes, particularly of governing parties, since elections are also an evaluation of the government, and the continuity or change is at stake. The selection method has effects on the parties and can define their efficiency or lack thereof in maintaining power.","PeriodicalId":35154,"journal":{"name":"Colombia Internacional","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140713912","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-11DOI: 10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.06
Nataly Viviana Vargas Gamboa
Objective/context: The system of presidential primaries was introduced into the Bolivian system in 2018 and was applied only once in 2019. This article aims to analyze the causes, characteristics, and effects of the compulsory and simultaneous primary system in Bolivia. Methodology: The characteristics of the party system, the method of selecting presidential candidates from 1982 to the present, the existing dynamics in the Legislature, the results of the 2019 primary elections, the current context, and regulations with a view to the 2025 general elections will be analyzed. Conclusions: This study shows that the presidential primaries were not on the agenda of the parties and were used by the ruling party to legitimize its presidential ticket. Therefore, using its legislative supermajority and control of other state organs, the primaries are introduced under the exclusive control of the leadership, which vertically decides whether they will be competitive or not. Originality: The detail and characteristics of this study offer a high degree of novelty and propose new elements for comparison and academic debate.
{"title":"La ficción de las primarias presidenciales en Bolivia","authors":"Nataly Viviana Vargas Gamboa","doi":"10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.06","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.06","url":null,"abstract":"Objective/context: The system of presidential primaries was introduced into the Bolivian system in 2018 and was applied only once in 2019. This article aims to analyze the causes, characteristics, and effects of the compulsory and simultaneous primary system in Bolivia. Methodology: The characteristics of the party system, the method of selecting presidential candidates from 1982 to the present, the existing dynamics in the Legislature, the results of the 2019 primary elections, the current context, and regulations with a view to the 2025 general elections will be analyzed. Conclusions: This study shows that the presidential primaries were not on the agenda of the parties and were used by the ruling party to legitimize its presidential ticket. Therefore, using its legislative supermajority and control of other state organs, the primaries are introduced under the exclusive control of the leadership, which vertically decides whether they will be competitive or not. Originality: The detail and characteristics of this study offer a high degree of novelty and propose new elements for comparison and academic debate.","PeriodicalId":35154,"journal":{"name":"Colombia Internacional","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140714724","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-11DOI: 10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.03
Hugo Jofré, Patricio Navia
Objective/context: We assess the effect of turnout in multiparty-coalition presidential primaries on the electoral support for the primary winner in two-round presidential elections. Does holding presidential primaries have a positive impact on the vote share received by the primary winner and/or political party in the corresponding presidential election? Methodology: We use municipal-level data in the three election cycles (2013-2021) since adopting optional presidential primaries in Chile to estimate ordinary least squares (OLS) models and assess the effect of turnout in the primaries on vote share in the general election. Conclusions: We identify a positive association between turnout in the primaries and vote share for the coalition candidate in the presidential election, with a higher impact on the runoff than in the first round. Originality: As primaries mobilize more ideological voters, the effect of primary turnout is stronger in the runoff when voters are more likely to align along clearly defined ideological lines than in the first round when primary voters normally have more than one option that matches their ideological preferences.
{"title":"O impacto da participação em primárias presidenciais simultâneas opcionais na porcentagem de votos para o candidato da coalizão na eleição geral: evidências do sistema de dois turnos do Chile","authors":"Hugo Jofré, Patricio Navia","doi":"10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.03","url":null,"abstract":"Objective/context: We assess the effect of turnout in multiparty-coalition presidential primaries on the electoral support for the primary winner in two-round presidential elections. Does holding presidential primaries have a positive impact on the vote share received by the primary winner and/or political party in the corresponding presidential election? Methodology: We use municipal-level data in the three election cycles (2013-2021) since adopting optional presidential primaries in Chile to estimate ordinary least squares (OLS) models and assess the effect of turnout in the primaries on vote share in the general election. Conclusions: We identify a positive association between turnout in the primaries and vote share for the coalition candidate in the presidential election, with a higher impact on the runoff than in the first round. Originality: As primaries mobilize more ideological voters, the effect of primary turnout is stronger in the runoff when voters are more likely to align along clearly defined ideological lines than in the first round when primary voters normally have more than one option that matches their ideological preferences.","PeriodicalId":35154,"journal":{"name":"Colombia Internacional","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140715898","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-11DOI: 10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.01
Daniel Buquet, Ariadna Gallo
Objective/context: This article presents a comparative analysis of the system of simultaneous and open presidential primaries (PAS, for its acronym in Spanish) in Latin American countries that have adopted legislation on the subject. In what appears to be a growing trend, nine countries—with differences among them—have established a PAS regime regulated by the electoral body and with public financing. Methodology: First, a description is presented to characterize and classify different PAS systems, considering their main normative differences. Then, hypotheses about their possible effects are proposed based on the literature on presidential primaries and electoral systems. Finally, taking into account the results of the primaries carried out and the subsequent presidential elections, an attempt is made to show to what extent the PAS system encourages citizen participation and competition for nomination, whether it favors or harms the parties that carry them out, and its capacity to stabilize the party system. Conclusions: Factors that stimulate participation, such as compulsory voting and simultaneity with other elections, and encourage competition, such as open presidential ticket, are identified. No institutional factors are found to directly benefit or harm the groups that decide the candidacy in a primary, although conflicting primaries seem to affect them. The ability of the PAS system to stabilize party systems seems to depend on its interaction with other institutional and political factors. Originality: This is the first work that ventures into a comparative analysis of the PAS system with regional coverage.
{"title":"Primárias abertas e simultâneas na América Latina. Uma proposta preliminar para um estudo comparativo","authors":"Daniel Buquet, Ariadna Gallo","doi":"10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.01","url":null,"abstract":"Objective/context: This article presents a comparative analysis of the system of simultaneous and open presidential primaries (PAS, for its acronym in Spanish) in Latin American countries that have adopted legislation on the subject. In what appears to be a growing trend, nine countries—with differences among them—have established a PAS regime regulated by the electoral body and with public financing. Methodology: First, a description is presented to characterize and classify different PAS systems, considering their main normative differences. Then, hypotheses about their possible effects are proposed based on the literature on presidential primaries and electoral systems. Finally, taking into account the results of the primaries carried out and the subsequent presidential elections, an attempt is made to show to what extent the PAS system encourages citizen participation and competition for nomination, whether it favors or harms the parties that carry them out, and its capacity to stabilize the party system. Conclusions: Factors that stimulate participation, such as compulsory voting and simultaneity with other elections, and encourage competition, such as open presidential ticket, are identified. No institutional factors are found to directly benefit or harm the groups that decide the candidacy in a primary, although conflicting primaries seem to affect them. The ability of the PAS system to stabilize party systems seems to depend on its interaction with other institutional and political factors. Originality: This is the first work that ventures into a comparative analysis of the PAS system with regional coverage.","PeriodicalId":35154,"journal":{"name":"Colombia Internacional","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140713600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-11DOI: 10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.05
Ignacio Santoro
Objective/context: In 2019, promoted by President Martín Vizcarra, the Congress of the Republic of Peru sanctioned a law on mandatory primary elections for voters and political parties. However, the regulation was not implemented, given that it was suspended by the Legislative Branch for the general elections in 2021 and the regional elections in 2022. Methodology: This paper studies the reform process of mandatory, simultaneous, and open primaries (PASO, for its acronym in Spanish) in Peru and its counter-reform based on its suspension on two occasions (2021 and 2022). Twenty-three key actors were interviewed for this research, including congresspersons, ministers, electoral officials, and researchers, in addition to the revision of secondary sources and newspapers of legislative sessions. Conclusions: The paper concludes that PASO were a “decorative” reform, i.e., a law passed without the intention of implementing it. Its sanction was the product of a reformist coalition between civil society and the President of the nation, where the objectives of increasing popular support for President Vizcarra and the need to improve the legitimacy of the political system converged. The reform was resisted by congresspersons who formed two counter-reformist coalitions that suspended the PASO on two occasions. Originality: The research shows that these counter-reform coalitions are intrinsically linked to the atomization and personalization of the Peruvian party system, characterized by hyper-personalism and a lack of party structures. In addition, it generates theoretical contributions to studying the processes of reforms and counter-reforms in the context of institutional weakness.
{"title":"Changing Something So That Nothing Changes. The Decorative Reform of Mandatory Primary Elections in Peru","authors":"Ignacio Santoro","doi":"10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.05","url":null,"abstract":"Objective/context: In 2019, promoted by President Martín Vizcarra, the Congress of the Republic of Peru sanctioned a law on mandatory primary elections for voters and political parties. However, the regulation was not implemented, given that it was suspended by the Legislative Branch for the general elections in 2021 and the regional elections in 2022. Methodology: This paper studies the reform process of mandatory, simultaneous, and open primaries (PASO, for its acronym in Spanish) in Peru and its counter-reform based on its suspension on two occasions (2021 and 2022). Twenty-three key actors were interviewed for this research, including congresspersons, ministers, electoral officials, and researchers, in addition to the revision of secondary sources and newspapers of legislative sessions. Conclusions: The paper concludes that PASO were a “decorative” reform, i.e., a law passed without the intention of implementing it. Its sanction was the product of a reformist coalition between civil society and the President of the nation, where the objectives of increasing popular support for President Vizcarra and the need to improve the legitimacy of the political system converged. The reform was resisted by congresspersons who formed two counter-reformist coalitions that suspended the PASO on two occasions. Originality: The research shows that these counter-reform coalitions are intrinsically linked to the atomization and personalization of the Peruvian party system, characterized by hyper-personalism and a lack of party structures. In addition, it generates theoretical contributions to studying the processes of reforms and counter-reforms in the context of institutional weakness.","PeriodicalId":35154,"journal":{"name":"Colombia Internacional","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140712803","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-04-11DOI: 10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.04
Mauricio Morales
Objective/context: This article analyzes the presidential primary elections in Chile from 2013 to 2021. As established by law, unlike in other Latin American countries, these elections are voluntary, simultaneous, and binding. Methodology: Presidential primary elections are studied in three dimensions: first, the institutions that regulate them; second, the electoral participation; and third, the results. For the analysis of the institutions, Law 20640 is explained. For electoral participation and the results of the primary elections, the statistical method is used, including a descriptive and inferential data analysis; the latter, mainly with multiple linear regression models and graphs of predicted values. Conclusions: Electoral participation in primaries significantly predicts participation in the general election and is strongly determined by the levels of poverty and rurality of the communes. Regarding the results, the Chilean experience shows that ideologically extreme candidates do not always triumph and that in some occasions—such as the 2021 elections—the relationship between the outcome of the primary elections and the candidates’ electoral performance in the first round is far from robust. Originality: This study analyzes three electoral cycles of presidential primaries in Chile and combines an analysis of the institutions that regulate the process with the application of statistical models to explain turnout and electoral results.
{"title":"Presidential Primaries in Chile, 2013-2021: Institutions, Voter Turnout, and Results","authors":"Mauricio Morales","doi":"10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.04","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint118.2024.04","url":null,"abstract":"Objective/context: This article analyzes the presidential primary elections in Chile from 2013 to 2021. As established by law, unlike in other Latin American countries, these elections are voluntary, simultaneous, and binding. Methodology: Presidential primary elections are studied in three dimensions: first, the institutions that regulate them; second, the electoral participation; and third, the results. For the analysis of the institutions, Law 20640 is explained. For electoral participation and the results of the primary elections, the statistical method is used, including a descriptive and inferential data analysis; the latter, mainly with multiple linear regression models and graphs of predicted values. Conclusions: Electoral participation in primaries significantly predicts participation in the general election and is strongly determined by the levels of poverty and rurality of the communes. Regarding the results, the Chilean experience shows that ideologically extreme candidates do not always triumph and that in some occasions—such as the 2021 elections—the relationship between the outcome of the primary elections and the candidates’ electoral performance in the first round is far from robust. Originality: This study analyzes three electoral cycles of presidential primaries in Chile and combines an analysis of the institutions that regulate the process with the application of statistical models to explain turnout and electoral results.","PeriodicalId":35154,"journal":{"name":"Colombia Internacional","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-04-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"140715710","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.7440/colombiaint117.2024.03
Carlos Moreno León, Jackeline Cuenca Echeverry
Objetivo/contexto: presentar el índice de representación femenina política departamental (Irfed). Esta herramienta permite contrastar espacial y temporalmente la manera en que se desarrolló la representación descriptiva de las mujeres entre 1992 y 2018. El Irfed ayuda a analizar cómo factores institucionales y regionales inciden en la representación descriptiva de las mujeres a nivel departamental; y, asimismo, se pueden evaluar los impactos que tiene la representación descriptiva en el reconocimiento de derechos de las mujeres a nivel espacial. Metodología: con información recopilada en la Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil sobre la elección de mujeres en diferentes estamentos departamentales, se hizo un análisis factorial de componente principal para construir un índice que capturara el nivel de representación que obtuvieron las mujeres en cada uno de los departamentos de Colombia entre 1992 y 2016. Con este índice se analizó cómo algunos factores institucionales influyen en el acceso de las mujeres al poder público. Conclusiones: el Irfed es capaz de mostrar: primero, las variaciones en la representación descriptiva de las mujeres en términos espaciales y temporales; y, segundo, el efecto heterogéneo que han tenido los cambios institucionales que promueven el arribo de mujeres a cargos de elección popular en las regiones. Originalidad: el Irfed contribuye a la comprensión de la representación política de las mujeres en cargos de elección popular al desconcentrar la discusión de las instituciones nacionales de representación.
{"title":"Presentación del índice de representación femenina política departamental (Irfed): una aproximación para medir la presencia femenina en cargos de elección popular en el orden regional en Colombia","authors":"Carlos Moreno León, Jackeline Cuenca Echeverry","doi":"10.7440/colombiaint117.2024.03","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint117.2024.03","url":null,"abstract":"Objetivo/contexto: presentar el índice de representación femenina política departamental (Irfed). Esta herramienta permite contrastar espacial y temporalmente la manera en que se desarrolló la representación descriptiva de las mujeres entre 1992 y 2018. El Irfed ayuda a analizar cómo factores institucionales y regionales inciden en la representación descriptiva de las mujeres a nivel departamental; y, asimismo, se pueden evaluar los impactos que tiene la representación descriptiva en el reconocimiento de derechos de las mujeres a nivel espacial. Metodología: con información recopilada en la Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil sobre la elección de mujeres en diferentes estamentos departamentales, se hizo un análisis factorial de componente principal para construir un índice que capturara el nivel de representación que obtuvieron las mujeres en cada uno de los departamentos de Colombia entre 1992 y 2016. Con este índice se analizó cómo algunos factores institucionales influyen en el acceso de las mujeres al poder público. Conclusiones: el Irfed es capaz de mostrar: primero, las variaciones en la representación descriptiva de las mujeres en términos espaciales y temporales; y, segundo, el efecto heterogéneo que han tenido los cambios institucionales que promueven el arribo de mujeres a cargos de elección popular en las regiones. Originalidad: el Irfed contribuye a la comprensión de la representación política de las mujeres en cargos de elección popular al desconcentrar la discusión de las instituciones nacionales de representación.","PeriodicalId":35154,"journal":{"name":"Colombia Internacional","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139129139","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.7440/colombiaint117.2024.01
Gabriel Kessler, Gabriel Vommaro, Juan Carlos Rodríguez-Raga, Juan Andrés Calderón Herrera
Objetivo/contexto: uno de los efectos de la guerra interna en Colombia fue obstaculizar la expresión del conflicto social y de las organizaciones que movilizan a los sectores populares. El plebiscito por el acuerdo de paz que intentaba terminar con dicha guerra fue una coyuntura de polarización política canalizada por la vía electoral. El desplazamiento de la centralidad de la cuestión de la guerra interna a partir de la firma del acuerdo abrió la posibilidad de expresión del conflicto social. Sin embargo, en un país con débiles organizaciones sociales y políticas que ordenen este conflicto, este se expresa: 1) sin encuadres alineados políticamente; 2) como descontento generalizado con las élites y sentimiento de “cancha inclinada”. Por tanto, la polarización política luego de la coyuntura del plebiscito es baja. Desarrollamos este argumento a partir del análisis de las posiciones de los votantes en relación con los temas más importantes de la agenda política: acuerdo de paz, agenda redistributiva (impuestos y ayudas sociales) y gestión gubernamental durante la pandemia por COVID, y agenda de género. Metodología: el artículo se basa en dieciséis grupos focales realizados entre septiembre y noviembre de 2021 en tres regiones de Colombia (Bogotá, Antioquia y el Caribe), en los que participaron votantes de las dos opciones electorales principales de 2018, con equilibrio de género, con variación ocupacional, y entre clases medias y clases bajas. Conclusión: los datos muestran que no existe polarización política entre los ciudadanos. En cambio, se observa un alto nivel de descontento con las élites políticas y económicas. Originalidad: el artículo ofrece una mirada alternativa a la percepción que tienen muchos colombianos de que viven en una sociedad polarizada y contribuye a la comprensión de los apoyos electorales a una fuerza “antisistema” en la elección presidencial de 2022.
{"title":"La sociedad contra las élites: aproximación a las bases sociales del apoyo electoral a Petro en Colombia","authors":"Gabriel Kessler, Gabriel Vommaro, Juan Carlos Rodríguez-Raga, Juan Andrés Calderón Herrera","doi":"10.7440/colombiaint117.2024.01","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint117.2024.01","url":null,"abstract":"Objetivo/contexto: uno de los efectos de la guerra interna en Colombia fue obstaculizar la expresión del conflicto social y de las organizaciones que movilizan a los sectores populares. El plebiscito por el acuerdo de paz que intentaba terminar con dicha guerra fue una coyuntura de polarización política canalizada por la vía electoral. El desplazamiento de la centralidad de la cuestión de la guerra interna a partir de la firma del acuerdo abrió la posibilidad de expresión del conflicto social. Sin embargo, en un país con débiles organizaciones sociales y políticas que ordenen este conflicto, este se expresa: 1) sin encuadres alineados políticamente; 2) como descontento generalizado con las élites y sentimiento de “cancha inclinada”. Por tanto, la polarización política luego de la coyuntura del plebiscito es baja. Desarrollamos este argumento a partir del análisis de las posiciones de los votantes en relación con los temas más importantes de la agenda política: acuerdo de paz, agenda redistributiva (impuestos y ayudas sociales) y gestión gubernamental durante la pandemia por COVID, y agenda de género. Metodología: el artículo se basa en dieciséis grupos focales realizados entre septiembre y noviembre de 2021 en tres regiones de Colombia (Bogotá, Antioquia y el Caribe), en los que participaron votantes de las dos opciones electorales principales de 2018, con equilibrio de género, con variación ocupacional, y entre clases medias y clases bajas. Conclusión: los datos muestran que no existe polarización política entre los ciudadanos. En cambio, se observa un alto nivel de descontento con las élites políticas y económicas. Originalidad: el artículo ofrece una mirada alternativa a la percepción que tienen muchos colombianos de que viven en una sociedad polarizada y contribuye a la comprensión de los apoyos electorales a una fuerza “antisistema” en la elección presidencial de 2022.","PeriodicalId":35154,"journal":{"name":"Colombia Internacional","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139128346","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.7440/colombiaint117.2024.02
Antonio Texeira De Barros, Myriam Violeta Cavalhero
Objetivo/contexto: el estudio tuvo como objetivo analizar el debate entre las senadoras brasileñas durante el juicio político a Dilma Rousseff, en 2016. Metodología: se utilizó el análisis del discurso sobre la principal cuestión examinada: ¿cómo fue el debate entre las senadoras, considerando el espectro ideológico-partidario y la posición con respecto a la destitución (a favor o en contra)? El análisis presenta un perfil político-ideológico de las senadoras, los argumentos que utilizaron en el debate, además de los diferentes usos de la defensa de la democracia. Conclusiones: las senadoras de izquierda fueron más asiduas, además de repetir con mayor frecuencia sus argumentos, con el objetivo de aumentar la visibilidad discursiva. Asimismo, abordaron la inexistencia de un delito de responsabilidad, condición para el inicio de un proceso de juicio político. Las senadoras de derecha y centro, por su parte, recurrieron a modelos retóricos para reiterar que la entonces presidente de la República ya no estaba en condiciones de mantener una base parlamentaria que sustentara su gobierno. Las senadoras de este grupo también afirmaron que las investigaciones demostraron el uso de esquemas para disfrazar irresponsablemente las cuentas públicas, exclusivamente con miras a la reelección de Rousseff. Originalidad: es importante resaltar el hecho de que se trata de un análisis del impedimento de una mujer en el cargo de presidente de la República, desde la perspectiva femenina del órgano parlamentario del Senado, institución encargada de juzgar el proceso de juicio político.
{"title":"El debate parlamentario sobre la destitución de Dilma Rousseff: la palabra de las senadoras brasileñas","authors":"Antonio Texeira De Barros, Myriam Violeta Cavalhero","doi":"10.7440/colombiaint117.2024.02","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint117.2024.02","url":null,"abstract":"Objetivo/contexto: el estudio tuvo como objetivo analizar el debate entre las senadoras brasileñas durante el juicio político a Dilma Rousseff, en 2016. Metodología: se utilizó el análisis del discurso sobre la principal cuestión examinada: ¿cómo fue el debate entre las senadoras, considerando el espectro ideológico-partidario y la posición con respecto a la destitución (a favor o en contra)? El análisis presenta un perfil político-ideológico de las senadoras, los argumentos que utilizaron en el debate, además de los diferentes usos de la defensa de la democracia. Conclusiones: las senadoras de izquierda fueron más asiduas, además de repetir con mayor frecuencia sus argumentos, con el objetivo de aumentar la visibilidad discursiva. Asimismo, abordaron la inexistencia de un delito de responsabilidad, condición para el inicio de un proceso de juicio político. Las senadoras de derecha y centro, por su parte, recurrieron a modelos retóricos para reiterar que la entonces presidente de la República ya no estaba en condiciones de mantener una base parlamentaria que sustentara su gobierno. Las senadoras de este grupo también afirmaron que las investigaciones demostraron el uso de esquemas para disfrazar irresponsablemente las cuentas públicas, exclusivamente con miras a la reelección de Rousseff. Originalidad: es importante resaltar el hecho de que se trata de un análisis del impedimento de una mujer en el cargo de presidente de la República, desde la perspectiva femenina del órgano parlamentario del Senado, institución encargada de juzgar el proceso de juicio político.","PeriodicalId":35154,"journal":{"name":"Colombia Internacional","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139129333","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2024-01-01DOI: 10.7440/colombiaint117.2024.05
Enzo Lenine, Mariana Lyra
Objective/context: This article introduces debates on Nancy Cartwright’s concept of nomological machines applied to international relations theory. What the neo-neo synthesis claims as the essence of the international system is a set of conditions imposed upon international phenomena for the latter to fit into the theories themselves. It argues that the law-like explanations tailored by neorealism and neoliberalism are by no means a representation of the world as it is, but rather a predication of the world as these theories want it to be. Methodology: It critically reviews the foundations of neo-neo theories, suggesting a philosophical methodology by reframing the ontological terms of neorealism and neoliberalism based on the concept of nomological machines. Conclusions: This article contends that neo-neo theories could benefit from a capacities-oriented approach, which offers a less categorical understanding of how explanations of international phenomena are tailored, allowing alternative principles to provide invaluable insights about the international system. Originality: This paper innovates by intersecting the ideas of nomological machines with the metatheoretical debate on international relations, thus enabling theoretical improvement.
{"title":"International Relations’ Nomological Machines: The Neo-Neo Synthesis’s Tale of Law-Like Explanations","authors":"Enzo Lenine, Mariana Lyra","doi":"10.7440/colombiaint117.2024.05","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7440/colombiaint117.2024.05","url":null,"abstract":"Objective/context: This article introduces debates on Nancy Cartwright’s concept of nomological machines applied to international relations theory. What the neo-neo synthesis claims as the essence of the international system is a set of conditions imposed upon international phenomena for the latter to fit into the theories themselves. It argues that the law-like explanations tailored by neorealism and neoliberalism are by no means a representation of the world as it is, but rather a predication of the world as these theories want it to be. Methodology: It critically reviews the foundations of neo-neo theories, suggesting a philosophical methodology by reframing the ontological terms of neorealism and neoliberalism based on the concept of nomological machines. Conclusions: This article contends that neo-neo theories could benefit from a capacities-oriented approach, which offers a less categorical understanding of how explanations of international phenomena are tailored, allowing alternative principles to provide invaluable insights about the international system. Originality: This paper innovates by intersecting the ideas of nomological machines with the metatheoretical debate on international relations, thus enabling theoretical improvement.","PeriodicalId":35154,"journal":{"name":"Colombia Internacional","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2024-01-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"139126432","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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