Pub Date : 2022-03-04DOI: 10.1080/01495933.2022.2039005
Ron Gurantz
Abstract Air power theory initially proposed that punitive attacks against civilian targets could force enemies to surrender. The current literature, however, has largely concluded that conventional bombing is ineffective as punishment. I argue that this is the result of a selection effect. By focusing only on high-profile bombing campaigns, the theory has drawn its conclusions from cases where punishment is likely to fail. This contrasts with deterrence theory, which has analyzed diplomacy in the shadow of nuclear punishment. Air power theory should follow this model by examining how the threat of bombing has influenced diplomacy and broader patterns of international politics.
{"title":"Does punishment work? Selection effects in air power theory","authors":"Ron Gurantz","doi":"10.1080/01495933.2022.2039005","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01495933.2022.2039005","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Air power theory initially proposed that punitive attacks against civilian targets could force enemies to surrender. The current literature, however, has largely concluded that conventional bombing is ineffective as punishment. I argue that this is the result of a selection effect. By focusing only on high-profile bombing campaigns, the theory has drawn its conclusions from cases where punishment is likely to fail. This contrasts with deterrence theory, which has analyzed diplomacy in the shadow of nuclear punishment. Air power theory should follow this model by examining how the threat of bombing has influenced diplomacy and broader patterns of international politics.","PeriodicalId":35161,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Strategy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44514765","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-04DOI: 10.1080/01495933.2022.2039013
Benjamin Schreer
Abstract How will the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) respond to China’s rise? At the heart of NATO’s China challenge is the need for allies to grasp the magnitude of Beijing’s emerging geopolitical challenge to the Euro-Atlantic area. Utilizing geopolitical theories developed by Halford Mackinder and Nicholas Spykman, the article argues that China is evolving into a transatlantic challenge on the Eurasian “maritime periphery.” Consequently, NATO can play a significant role in putting pressure on China’s continental direction and its efforts to extend its strategic reach into the “far seas.”
{"title":"A geopolitical and geostrategic blueprint for NATO’s China challenge","authors":"Benjamin Schreer","doi":"10.1080/01495933.2022.2039013","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01495933.2022.2039013","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract How will the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) respond to China’s rise? At the heart of NATO’s China challenge is the need for allies to grasp the magnitude of Beijing’s emerging geopolitical challenge to the Euro-Atlantic area. Utilizing geopolitical theories developed by Halford Mackinder and Nicholas Spykman, the article argues that China is evolving into a transatlantic challenge on the Eurasian “maritime periphery.” Consequently, NATO can play a significant role in putting pressure on China’s continental direction and its efforts to extend its strategic reach into the “far seas.”","PeriodicalId":35161,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Strategy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42067870","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-04DOI: 10.1080/01495933.2022.2039015
Amit Gupta
Abstract Since independence the Indian government has pursued a state-driven approach to arms production that has led to lengthy delays, cost overruns, and not fulfilled the desired goal of autonomy in weapons production. At the same time, a weapons acquisition policy that is marked by lengthy negotiations and an emphasis on unrealistic technology transfers has led the Indian armed forces to be shortchanged in their attempts to build up a modern force structure. The pathologies of arms production and weapons acquisition have left the Indian armed forces less effective than they would like to be in combatting a two-front challenge to the country’s security. The article suggests that moving from a techno nationalistic arms production policy to one of techno globalization (with realistic outcomes) is the best step forward for India.
{"title":"Techno-nationalism vs. techno globalization: India’s military acquisitions and arms production dilemma","authors":"Amit Gupta","doi":"10.1080/01495933.2022.2039015","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01495933.2022.2039015","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract Since independence the Indian government has pursued a state-driven approach to arms production that has led to lengthy delays, cost overruns, and not fulfilled the desired goal of autonomy in weapons production. At the same time, a weapons acquisition policy that is marked by lengthy negotiations and an emphasis on unrealistic technology transfers has led the Indian armed forces to be shortchanged in their attempts to build up a modern force structure. The pathologies of arms production and weapons acquisition have left the Indian armed forces less effective than they would like to be in combatting a two-front challenge to the country’s security. The article suggests that moving from a techno nationalistic arms production policy to one of techno globalization (with realistic outcomes) is the best step forward for India.","PeriodicalId":35161,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Strategy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-04","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44220150","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/01495933.2021.2017742
Muhsin Puthan Purayil
Abstract This article argues that while India’s Balakot airstrike garnered popular attention as a hardline military approach, the role of soft power, which was very much part of it, received little or scant regard. Moving away from the popular view of the Balakot airstrike as a hard power-oriented military approach, taking a nuanced look at it from the soft power and strategic narrative vantage point, this exegesis explores both the hard and soft dimensions of power employed as means to advance India’s aims and ends. In doing so, this examination finds the strike as a smart power strategy.
{"title":"India and the Balakot airstrike: Reflections beyond hard power","authors":"Muhsin Puthan Purayil","doi":"10.1080/01495933.2021.2017742","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01495933.2021.2017742","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article argues that while India’s Balakot airstrike garnered popular attention as a hardline military approach, the role of soft power, which was very much part of it, received little or scant regard. Moving away from the popular view of the Balakot airstrike as a hard power-oriented military approach, taking a nuanced look at it from the soft power and strategic narrative vantage point, this exegesis explores both the hard and soft dimensions of power employed as means to advance India’s aims and ends. In doing so, this examination finds the strike as a smart power strategy.","PeriodicalId":35161,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Strategy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49629177","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/01495933.2021.2017739
Michail Ploumis
Abstract In the future, at the strategic, operational and tactical level of warfare, the substitution of the human will and action by autonomous AI weapon systems appears quite probable. These systems are already being used and have the capability to successfully deal with threats faster than humans. The countering of AI weapon systems will pose a great challenge in a future war. In this article, the case is made that for the AI weapon systems to be defeated, unconventional cognition will be required.
{"title":"AI weapon systems in future war operations; strategy, operations and tactics","authors":"Michail Ploumis","doi":"10.1080/01495933.2021.2017739","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01495933.2021.2017739","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract In the future, at the strategic, operational and tactical level of warfare, the substitution of the human will and action by autonomous AI weapon systems appears quite probable. These systems are already being used and have the capability to successfully deal with threats faster than humans. The countering of AI weapon systems will pose a great challenge in a future war. In this article, the case is made that for the AI weapon systems to be defeated, unconventional cognition will be required.","PeriodicalId":35161,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Strategy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47713063","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/01495933.2021.2017749
A. Carr, Benjamin Walsh
Abstract The Fabian strategy is one of the most famous military strategies. Yet beyond notions of withdrawal and trading “space for time”, there is little clarity in the literature about how it operates. In this article, we develop a framework to explain the strategy based wearing down an adversary over time and then seeking a battlefield decision. We also examine contingent factors in shaping success or failure. In the final section, we explore what the Fabian strategy, famous for its use of time, tells us about acting strategically in the temporal domain.
{"title":"The Fabian strategy: How to trade space for time","authors":"A. Carr, Benjamin Walsh","doi":"10.1080/01495933.2021.2017749","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01495933.2021.2017749","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Fabian strategy is one of the most famous military strategies. Yet beyond notions of withdrawal and trading “space for time”, there is little clarity in the literature about how it operates. In this article, we develop a framework to explain the strategy based wearing down an adversary over time and then seeking a battlefield decision. We also examine contingent factors in shaping success or failure. In the final section, we explore what the Fabian strategy, famous for its use of time, tells us about acting strategically in the temporal domain.","PeriodicalId":35161,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Strategy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43353376","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/01495933.2021.2017751
Christopher Stone
{"title":"War in heaven: The arms race in outer space","authors":"Christopher Stone","doi":"10.1080/01495933.2021.2017751","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01495933.2021.2017751","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":35161,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Strategy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45160934","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/01495933.2021.2017750
H̊akan Edström, Jacob Westberg
Abstract The article aims to contribute to previous research in two main ways. First, we intervene in the debate on the stability of the present unipolar system by offering an analytical framework and an empirical approach for exploring and categorizing the actual strategies pursued by the major powers in the contemporary international system. In doing so, we present an analysis of how the strategies of the five system-determining states interact and affect the stability of the system. Second, in order to be able to explain why states pursue different strategies, we complement the analytical framework of structural realism with insights from research on Power Transition Theory (PTT). Hereby, we offer a new comprehensive theoretical approach for analyzing how asymmetric power relations affect strategic choices of major powers.
{"title":"The alignment strategies of great powers: Managing power asymmetries and structural changes in the international system","authors":"H̊akan Edström, Jacob Westberg","doi":"10.1080/01495933.2021.2017750","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01495933.2021.2017750","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The article aims to contribute to previous research in two main ways. First, we intervene in the debate on the stability of the present unipolar system by offering an analytical framework and an empirical approach for exploring and categorizing the actual strategies pursued by the major powers in the contemporary international system. In doing so, we present an analysis of how the strategies of the five system-determining states interact and affect the stability of the system. Second, in order to be able to explain why states pursue different strategies, we complement the analytical framework of structural realism with insights from research on Power Transition Theory (PTT). Hereby, we offer a new comprehensive theoretical approach for analyzing how asymmetric power relations affect strategic choices of major powers.","PeriodicalId":35161,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Strategy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49031562","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/01495933.2021.2017746
Michał Piechowicz, A. Szpak
Abstract The Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) represents an institutionalized attempt by European Union Member States to respond to the security challenges they confront. This paper discusses the evolution of this policy through the lens of political integration and international relations theories. The analysis integrates both the supranational and the national level, and demonstrates that European institutions have extended their privileges and sphere of influence with increasing organizational mandates. At the same time, participation by various levels in the creation of European security policies has evolved, and the inter-governmental level is often recognized as dominant. However, the question remains open whether this evolution of policy might be properly explained by several influential political theories that have shaped the European integration and security architecture in recent decades. Aspects of the CSDP institutional setting (its creation, goals and role) and the explanation of why security and defense policy is a complex dilemma of the integration process are discussed.
{"title":"Evolution of the CSDP in the setting of European integration and international relations theory","authors":"Michał Piechowicz, A. Szpak","doi":"10.1080/01495933.2021.2017746","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01495933.2021.2017746","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract The Common Security and Defense Policy (CSDP) represents an institutionalized attempt by European Union Member States to respond to the security challenges they confront. This paper discusses the evolution of this policy through the lens of political integration and international relations theories. The analysis integrates both the supranational and the national level, and demonstrates that European institutions have extended their privileges and sphere of influence with increasing organizational mandates. At the same time, participation by various levels in the creation of European security policies has evolved, and the inter-governmental level is often recognized as dominant. However, the question remains open whether this evolution of policy might be properly explained by several influential political theories that have shaped the European integration and security architecture in recent decades. Aspects of the CSDP institutional setting (its creation, goals and role) and the explanation of why security and defense policy is a complex dilemma of the integration process are discussed.","PeriodicalId":35161,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Strategy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46006660","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-01-02DOI: 10.1080/01495933.2021.2017740
Marius Kristiansen, Njål Hoem
Abstract This article explores deterrence as an element in cybersecurity strategy from a small state perspective. The cyber domain presents novel challenges for strategy makers, and applying deterrence in the cyber domain requires an organized and multinational approach – since few states can leverage deterrence in this all-encompassing domain on their own. Deterrence has been an important factor in shaping global security for half a century, but when applied to the cyber domain there are certain inherent mechanisms that must be understood in order to generate the desired effects. Key issues discussed are the volume of agents capable of operating and creating effects in the domain, and the availability of tools and techniques. These issues concerning actors and vectors makes it difficult to survey threats and create targeted deterrence. Furthermore, the cyber milieu makes it difficult to connect action to motives, thereby further complicating any attempt to analyze the actual importance of observable effects. From a strategist’s point of view, these general characteristics are exacerbated by the fact that the international community does not have a common language or shared platform to uniformly approach these issues. Absent clarity on some fundamentals the core issues of attribution and proportionality becomes a hindrance to effective deterrence.
{"title":"Small players in a limitless domain: Cyber deterrence as small state strategy","authors":"Marius Kristiansen, Njål Hoem","doi":"10.1080/01495933.2021.2017740","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/01495933.2021.2017740","url":null,"abstract":"Abstract This article explores deterrence as an element in cybersecurity strategy from a small state perspective. The cyber domain presents novel challenges for strategy makers, and applying deterrence in the cyber domain requires an organized and multinational approach – since few states can leverage deterrence in this all-encompassing domain on their own. Deterrence has been an important factor in shaping global security for half a century, but when applied to the cyber domain there are certain inherent mechanisms that must be understood in order to generate the desired effects. Key issues discussed are the volume of agents capable of operating and creating effects in the domain, and the availability of tools and techniques. These issues concerning actors and vectors makes it difficult to survey threats and create targeted deterrence. Furthermore, the cyber milieu makes it difficult to connect action to motives, thereby further complicating any attempt to analyze the actual importance of observable effects. From a strategist’s point of view, these general characteristics are exacerbated by the fact that the international community does not have a common language or shared platform to uniformly approach these issues. Absent clarity on some fundamentals the core issues of attribution and proportionality becomes a hindrance to effective deterrence.","PeriodicalId":35161,"journal":{"name":"Comparative Strategy","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42684683","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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