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A new era for Chinese military logistics 中国军队后勤的新时代
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-02-11 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2021.1880391
Joel Wuthnow
ABSTRACT The PLA’s ability to project force within and beyond China’s borders, which Chinese strategists refer to as “strategic delivery,” depends on adequate logistics capabilities, systems, and policies. The new Joint Logistic Support Force will play a critical role in these respects. The force, established in 2016 as part of Xi Jinping’s reforms, made its operational debut in the PLA’s response to the novel coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan in 2020. That case provides details about the JLSF’s structure, capabilities, and operations. Leveraging insights from that case, the essay portrays the JLSF as a force in transition, both the inheritor of decades of investments in logistics modernization and recent upgrades, but also a new and largely untested force with several apparent weaknesses. Unless further improvements are made, the JLSF could be a weak link in future Chinese joint operations.
解放军在中国境内外投送兵力的能力——中国战略家称之为“战略投送”——取决于充足的后勤能力、系统和政策。新的联勤保障部队将在这些方面发挥关键作用。该案例提供了有关JLSF的结构、功能和操作的详细信息。利用从该案例中获得的见解,本文将JLSF描述为一支转型中的力量,它既是数十年来在物流现代化和最近升级方面投资的继承者,也是一支基本上未经考验的新力量,存在一些明显的弱点。除非进一步改进,JLSF可能成为未来中国联合作战的薄弱环节。
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引用次数: 3
Barracks and barricades: how internal security threats affect foreign basing access in the Philippines 兵营和路障:内部安全威胁如何影响外国在菲律宾的军事基地
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-12-27 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1862087
J. W. Brown, Dean C. Dulay
ABSTRACT This paper presents a theory of foreign military basing as a function of the degree of internal threat facing a host nation. The theory is based on rational choice logic where politicians balance economic and security benefits against sovereignty and legitimacy costs. When internal threat is low a host nation’s political actors value legitimacy and sovereignty and hence reduce base access. When internal threat is high economic and security benefits trump legitimacy and sovereignty costs, hence increasing base access. The theory is assessed through process-tracing the historical events around U.S military basing in the Philippines. When internal threat was low from coups and revolutionary movements the Philippine government reduced U.S. basing access, but when a threat from these movements was high they either maintained or increased access. This study suggests more carefully considering the role of internal threats when assessing the dynamics of foreign basing.
摘要:本文提出了国外军事基地与东道国面临的内部威胁程度的函数关系理论。这一理论的基础是政治家在经济和安全利益与主权和合法性成本之间进行平衡的理性选择逻辑。当内部威胁较低时,东道国的政治行为者重视合法性和主权,因此减少基地的使用。当内部威胁很高时,经济和安全利益胜过合法性和主权成本,因此增加基地使用权。该理论是通过追踪美军在菲律宾基地周围的历史事件来评估的。当国内政变和革命运动的威胁较低时,菲律宾政府减少了美国基地的使用,但当这些运动的威胁很高时,他们要么保持或增加使用。这项研究建议在评估国外基地的动态时更仔细地考虑内部威胁的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Unlikely allies? Australia, Indonesia and the strategic cultures of middle powers 不太可能的盟友吗?澳大利亚,印度尼西亚和中等强国的战略文化
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-29 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1846525
M. Beeson, A. Bloomfield, Wahyu Wicaksana
ABSTRACT Australia and Indonesia are two very different countries with little in common other than geography. Their distinctive histories, cultures and identities have meant that the bilateral relationship has often been difficult and characterized by frequent misunderstandings and uncertainty. As close neighbors, however, they have had little option other than to try to make the best of their historical circumstances. This paper analyses the different strategic cultures, policies and perspectives that have emerged in both countries. We argue that despite their differences, the current international order offers an opportunity for “middle powers” to play a more prominent role – if they can recognize their mutual interests and potential as members of a region of growing international importance.
澳大利亚和印度尼西亚是两个截然不同的国家,除了地理位置之外,几乎没有什么共同之处。两国不同的历史、文化和特性意味着双边关系往往是困难的,经常出现误解和不确定性。然而,作为近邻,两国别无选择,只能努力充分利用各自的历史环境。本文分析了两国不同的战略文化、政策和观点。我们认为,尽管存在分歧,但当前的国际秩序为“中等大国”提供了一个发挥更突出作用的机会——如果它们能够认识到它们作为一个日益重要的国际地区成员的共同利益和潜力。
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引用次数: 5
Leveraging the “String of Pearls” for strategic gains? An assessment of the Maritime Silk Road Initiative’s (MSRI) economic/security nexus in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR) 利用“珍珠链”获取战略利益?海上丝绸之路倡议(MSRI)在印度洋地区(IOR)的经济/安全关系评估
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-16 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1844664
Benjamin Barton
ABSTRACT Since the launch of the Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI), observers have witnessed the consolidation of a growing Chinese presence in ports around the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). This growing presence has caused alarm among skeptics who view the MSRI as a second coming of the String of Pearls (SoP). Indeed, China is seen as leveraging MSRI port investments in return for national strategic and geopolitical gain, such as ultimately gaining a military foothold in MSRI ports. Regardless of China’s purported intent, this paper seeks to add nuance to this debate by examining whether Beijing can actually achieve such strategic gains in the IOR via the deployment of its economic statecraft (via MSRI investments). As the paper shows, the MSRI’s current rollout – as well as the inherent resistance to the strategic dimensions of this rollout – offer little in the way of empirical support to the SoP concept.
自海上丝绸之路倡议(MSRI)启动以来,观察家们目睹了中国在印度洋地区(IOR)港口日益增长的存在。这种日益增长的存在引起了怀疑论者的警惕,他们将MSRI视为“珍珠链”(SoP)的第二次降临。事实上,中国被视为利用MSRI港口投资来换取国家战略和地缘政治利益,例如最终在MSRI港口获得军事立足点。无论中国声称的意图如何,本文试图通过研究北京是否可以通过部署其经济治国方略(通过MSRI投资)在印度洋地区实现这种战略收益,从而为这场辩论增添细微差别。正如本文所示,MSRI目前的推出——以及对这一推出的战略维度的固有阻力——几乎没有为SoP概念提供经验支持。
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引用次数: 0
“Making the alliance even greater”: (Mis-)managing U.S.-Japan relations in the age of Trump “让同盟更加强大”:(错误)在特朗普时代管理美日关系
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-11-05 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1838486
P. O'Shea, S. Maslow
ABSTRACT President Donald Trump’s “America First” policy questions the fundamentals of the global U.S.-led alliance network. Where other allies implemented hedging strategies, Japan’s Prime Minister Abe Shinzō pledged to “make the alliance even greater,” insisting that the bilateral ties were “airtight” and “stronger than ever before.” However, Trump’s approach to trade, détente with North Korea, and off-the-cuff remarks regarding nuclear weapons invigorated criticism in Japan: the U.S. is an unreliable partner and Japan needs to prepare for life after the alliance. We argue that Abe’s embrace of Trump was successful in staving off the worst, maintaining stability at the cost of personal humiliation and certain trade and security interests. However, Trump’s cavalier treatment of Japan has laid bare the realities of the alliance, potentially revitalizing a more autonomous discourse of alternatives to the current and often “humiliating” modus in alliance management.
唐纳德·特朗普总统的“美国优先”政策对美国领导的全球联盟网络的基础提出了质疑。在其他盟国采取对冲策略的情况下,日本首相安倍承诺“让同盟更加强大”,坚持认为双边关系“无懈可击”,“比以往任何时候都更加强大”。然而,特朗普的贸易方式、与朝鲜的冲突、关于核武器的即兴言论,在日本引发了批评:美国是一个不可靠的伙伴,日本需要为美日同盟结束后的生活做好准备。我们认为,安倍对特朗普的支持成功地避免了最坏的情况,以个人羞辱和某些贸易和安全利益为代价维持了稳定。然而,特朗普对日本的傲慢态度暴露了美日同盟的现实,可能会重振一种更自主的话语,以取代目前经常“羞辱”的同盟管理方式。
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引用次数: 8
The Mass Line approach to countering violent extremism in China: the road from propaganda to hearts and minds 反对中国暴力极端主义的群众路线:从宣传到心灵的道路
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-10-12 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1825379
E. Newman, Chi Zhang
ABSTRACT As a strategy to temper centralized governance with a degree of public participation in China, the “Mass Line” approach has been used throughout the history of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to mobilize citizens in support of national projects and use this engagement as a channel for feedback. The Mass Line has been employed in attempts to address “radicalization” and challenges to centralized state control, indicating that the CCP’s approach to counter-terrorism goes beyond the top-down, oppressive tactics that China is often associated with. This paper explores China’s programmes of mass mobilization as a part of its counter-radicalization strategy in order to deepen understanding of how the country is responding to a key security challenge. It demonstrates that this approach reflects significant historical continuities, and thus national characteristics, in terms of political culture and state control.
在中国,作为一种通过一定程度的公众参与来缓和中央集权治理的策略,“群众路线”方法在中国共产党(CCP)的历史上一直被用来动员公民支持国家项目,并将这种参与作为反馈渠道。群众路线一直被用于解决“激进化”和对中央集权国家控制的挑战,这表明中共的反恐方法超越了中国经常与之联系在一起的自上而下的压迫策略。本文探讨了中国的大规模动员计划,作为其反激进化战略的一部分,以加深对该国如何应对关键安全挑战的理解。它表明,这种方法反映了重要的历史连续性,从而反映了民族特征,在政治文化和国家控制方面。
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引用次数: 0
Alliances in Chinese international relations: are they ending or rejuvenating? 中国国际关系中的联盟:是终结还是复兴?
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-10-04 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1825380
Zhengrui Han, M. Papa
ABSTRACT What are Chinese views of international security alliances? Some scholars argue that the idea of alliance formation has become obsolete in contemporary international relations (IR), while others predict that China will eventually return to alliance formation, as major power competition intensifies. This study analyzes 1,403 articles addressing China’s foreign relationships published in the top five Chinese IR/political science journals between 1990 and 2019. We use automatic content analysis to identify key concepts and measure trends in Chinese alliance thinking. Our findings challenge the view that alliances are obsolete in contemporary Chinese IR. Alliance debates have increased in prominence during Xi’s administration. Since the 1990s, however, the partnership concept has emerged as an alternative to the alliance concept. We examine the application of these concepts through cases of China’s relations with the United States, Russia, and India.
中国对国际安全联盟的看法是什么?一些学者认为,结盟的理念在当代国际关系中已经过时,而另一些学者则预测,随着大国竞争的加剧,中国最终将回归结盟。本研究分析了1990年至2019年间发表在中国五大国际关系/政治学期刊上的1403篇有关中国对外关系的文章。我们使用自动内容分析来识别关键概念并衡量中国联盟思维的趋势。我们的研究结果挑战了联盟在当代中国国际关系中已经过时的观点。然而,自20世纪90年代以来,伙伴关系概念作为联盟概念的替代品出现了。我们通过中国与美国、俄罗斯和印度的关系案例来研究这些概念的应用。
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引用次数: 0
The securitization of cyberspace governance in Singapore 新加坡网络空间治理的证券化
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2019.1687444
Syed Mohammed Ad’ha Aljunied
ABSTRACT Drawing from securitization theory and Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA), this article examines how the Singaporean government has “securitized” cyberspace governance. It contributes value-add to the existing literature on securitization theory by evaluating the specific backgrounds and preexisting beliefs that securitizing actors bring with them to the securitization process. Taking the case of Singapore, this paper focuses on the military elites turned civilian politicans and policymakers that have been tasked with cyberspace governance. A discourse analysis shows how terminologies describing cyberspace as an “existential” issue and key personnel appointments with significant military backgrounds reflect the prevalance of military elites, terminologies, strategies that have become embedded within domestic cybersecurity governance structures. The use of military-style concepts such as “digital ranges” and “war games” in Singapore mirrors global financial industry trends where military-derived terminology has become widespread in preparing for cyber-attacks on critical information infrastructure. Two key focus areas of cyberspace governance are evaluated: online content regulation of Internet and social media networks, and legislation to protect critical information infrastructure. The paper concludes by discussing a range of concerns raised by the target “audience” of securitization processes, such as civil society and information infrastructure providers.
摘要本文借鉴证券化理论和批评性话语分析(CDA),考察新加坡政府如何将网络空间治理“证券化”。它通过评估证券化参与者在证券化过程中所带来的具体背景和已有信念,为现有的证券化理论文献提供了增值。以新加坡为例,本文关注的是由军事精英转变为平民政治家和决策者,他们肩负着网络空间治理的重任。话语分析显示,将网络空间描述为“存在”问题的术语和具有重要军事背景的关键人员任命如何反映了军事精英、术语和战略的盛行,这些术语和战略已嵌入国内网络安全治理结构。新加坡对“数字靶场”和“战争游戏”等军事风格概念的使用,反映了全球金融业的趋势:在准备针对关键信息基础设施的网络攻击时,源自军事的术语已变得普遍。评估了网络空间治理的两个重点领域:互联网和社交媒体网络的在线内容监管,以及保护关键信息基础设施的立法。本文最后讨论了证券化过程的目标“受众”(如公民社会和信息基础设施提供商)提出的一系列关切。
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引用次数: 4
Embattled authoritarians: continuity and collapse in Central and Southwest Asia 四面楚歌的独裁者:中亚和西南亚的延续和崩溃
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2019.1706490
Charles J. Sullivan
ABSTRACT Why are some authoritarian leaders able to stave off violent challengers to their rule while others falter? This article analyzes several case studies involving a series of nondemocratic governments and violent non-state actors waging war and posits that different combinations of variables lead to dissimilar outcomes (ranging from “civil war/insurgency”, “regime implosion” or “foreign-based overthrow”, “negotiated peace”, to “strategic advance and retreat”). Accordingly, “embattled authoritarians” require a high level of “political-military aid” over time from a supportive foreign power to effectively combat “violent non-state challengers”. However, it is difficult for such governments to completely escape from “embattled” status, particularly if a supportive foreign power does not exert influence to set parameters for peace between the warring parties and the level of international interference (i.e. political-military aid abetting violent non-state challengers courtesy of other foreign powers) does not recede over time. This article concludes with a forecast on Afghanistan and Tajikistan’s respective futures and discusses how the onset of political instability within the former may serve to destabilize the political situation in the latter.
为什么一些专制领导人能够击退对其统治的暴力挑战,而另一些却摇摇欲坠?本文分析了几个涉及一系列非民主政府和暴力非国家行为体发动战争的案例研究,并假设不同的变量组合会导致不同的结果(从“内战/叛乱”、“政权内崩溃”或“外国推翻”、“谈判和平”到“战略进退”)。因此,“四面楚战的独裁者”需要从一个长期支持的外国势力那里获得高水平的“政治军事援助”,以有效地打击“暴力的非国家挑战者”。然而,这些政府很难完全摆脱“四面楚战”的状态,特别是如果一个支持性的外国势力没有施加影响,为交战各方之间的和平设定参数,而且国际干涉的程度(即其他外国势力给予暴力的非国家挑战者的政治-军事援助)没有随着时间的推移而减少。本文最后对阿富汗和塔吉克斯坦各自的未来进行了预测,并讨论了前者内部政治不稳定的爆发可能如何影响后者的政治局势。
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引用次数: 5
Political Parties, Australia and the U.S. Alliance: 1976-2016 政党、澳大利亚和美国联盟:1976-2016
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2019.1681403
Michael D. Cohen
ABSTRACT What causes variation in the foreign policies of U.S. allies regarding their desired U.S. military role in their region and their troop commitments to U.S. military interventions? This paper addresses this question through documenting and explaining the sources of variation in Australia’s foreign policies regarding these issues over four decades. Treating the two major political parties in Australia and their respective leaders who self-select into them as endogenous, the paper argues that Australian foreign policy, whilst always supportive of the U.S. alliance, has systematically varied. This variation has correlated with the political party in power while the late Cold War and post-Cold War balances of power remained constant. While the Labor party has only been willing to send combat troops to large U.S. military interventions when the latter have a supporting United Nations Security Council Resolution, the conservative Liberal party has been willing to military intervene without this multilateral support. The Labor party, unlike the Liberal party, has also frequently proposed the formation and consolidation of multilateral regional institutions. These preferences render the U.S. to have been necessary for the Labor Party but sufficient for the Liberal party. Future Sino-U.S. armed conflict would provide a harder test of these hypotheses.
是什么原因导致美国的盟国在其期望的美国在其地区的军事作用和对美国军事干预的军队承诺方面的外交政策发生变化?本文通过记录和解释四十年来澳大利亚关于这些问题的外交政策变化的来源来解决这个问题。本文将澳大利亚的两个主要政党及其各自的领导人视为内生的,认为澳大利亚的外交政策虽然一直支持与美国的联盟,但却有系统的变化。这种变化与执政的政党有关,而冷战后期和冷战后的权力平衡保持不变。工党只愿意在美国大规模军事干预行动得到联合国安理会决议支持的情况下派遣作战部队,而保守的自由党则愿意在没有这种多边支持的情况下进行军事干预。与自由党不同,工党也经常提议建立和巩固多边地区机构。这些偏好使得美国对工党来说是必要的,但对自由党来说已经足够了。未来的中美。武装冲突将为这些假设提供更艰难的考验。
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引用次数: 2
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Asian Security
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