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Domestic politics, threat perceptions, and the alliance security dilemma: the case of South Korea, 1993-2020 国内政治、威胁感知和同盟安全困境:1993-2020年韩国的案例
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-25 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2021.1984231
S. B. Moller
ABSTRACT How do domestic politics affect the management of alliances? Contra Snyder (1984), I argue that states’ alliance management strategies do not arise solely in response to the external threat environment but rather differing perceptions of it by party leaders. I illustrate my argument through a plausibility probe of the U.S.-South Korean military alliance, demonstrating how South Korean leaders’ partisan interpretations of the threat environment affected intra-alliance bargaining in the coordination of military affairs. Consistent with the framework developed here, I find that partisan differences do a better job explaining alliance dynamics over the past quarter century than systemic factors alone.
国内政治如何影响联盟的管理?康特拉·斯奈德(Contra Snyder, 1984)认为,各州的联盟管理策略并不仅仅是为了应对外部威胁环境而产生的,而是源于政党领导人对外部威胁环境的不同看法。我通过对美韩军事同盟的合理性调查来说明我的论点,展示了韩国领导人对威胁环境的党派解释如何影响了军事事务协调中的同盟内部谈判。与本文提出的框架一致,我发现党派差异比单独的体制因素更能解释过去四分之一世纪的联盟动态。
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引用次数: 3
China’s Kashmir policy since the mid-2010s: ramifications of CPEC and India’s Kashmir reorganization 2010年代中期以来的中国克什米尔政策:中巴经济走廊与印度克什米尔重组的影响
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-09-25 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2021.1978426
Masahiro Kurita
ABSTRACT Since the mid-2010s, China’s policy toward the Kashmir dispute between India and Pakistan has shifted away from its traditional contours, where Beijing distanced itself from the dispute and acted as a mere development partner in the Pakistan-controlled territory. Although the much-hyped China–Pakistan Economic Corridor itself did not significantly change the nature of China’s development and economic activities in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, after its launch in 2015, Beijing signaled its willingness to take a mediator role, conducted activities entailing the employment of the PLA in the area, and even nudged Islamabad to take steps that would affect the geographical scope of the Kashmir sovereignty question. Then, in the wake of India’s announcement of the abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution and the reorganization of the state of Jammu and Kashmir in August 2019, China’s Kashmir policy further drifted away from its traditional line. References to the United Nations Security Council resolutions on Kashmir reemerged in China’s public statements and Beijing took diplomatic actions to support Pakistan’s bid to internationalize the Kashmir issue. As a result, China’s Kashmir policy has been turning into a serious source of friction in Sino–Indian relations.
自2010年代中期以来,中国对印度和巴基斯坦之间的克什米尔争端的政策已经偏离了传统的轮廓,即北京与争端保持距离,在巴基斯坦控制的领土上仅仅扮演发展伙伴的角色。尽管大肆宣传的中巴经济走廊本身并没有显著改变中国在巴控克什米尔地区的发展和经济活动的性质,但在2015年启动后,北京表示愿意扮演调解人的角色,在该地区开展了涉及解放军的活动,甚至推动伊斯兰堡采取影响克什米尔主权问题地理范围的措施。2019年8月,印度宣布废除《宪法》第370条,重组查谟-克什米尔邦,中国的克什米尔政策进一步偏离了传统路线。中国的公开声明中再次提到联合国安理会关于克什米尔的决议,北京采取外交行动支持巴基斯坦将克什米尔问题国际化的努力。因此,中国的克什米尔政策已成为中印关系的一个严重摩擦源。
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引用次数: 1
Contested peace: duality of security in post-conflict North Waziristan 有争议的和平:冲突后北瓦济里斯坦的双重安全
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-08-02 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2021.1953991
M. Makki, Faryal Khan, Syed Ali Akash
ABSTRACT This paper attempts to disentangle the concept of security by exploring the duality between state security and societal security in post-conflict North Waziristan, Pakistan. The conceptual explications are centered on the interrelation between state security and societal security, to assess the securitizing potentials of state and society, which impact the durability of post-conflict peace. The reconceptualization is steered through an empirical overemphasis on the state-led security practices for reconstructing post-conflict security in North Waziristan and the consequent provincial merger (FATA-KP merger) that followed. Simply put, this paper intertwines conceptual analysis with empirical observations on post-conflict state security and societal security in North Waziristan to illuminate the underlying causes of the 'contested' peace in the former tribal Agency. Although this discussion is context-driven, most of the analysis is applicable, mutatis mutandis, to analyze state security and societal security in post-conflict settings.
本文试图通过探讨冲突后巴基斯坦北瓦济里斯坦国家安全与社会安全的二元性来厘清安全的概念。概念解释集中在国家安全和社会安全之间的相互关系,以评估国家和社会的证券化潜力,影响冲突后和平的持久性。重新概念化是通过实证过度强调国家主导的安全实践来引导的,这些实践旨在重建北瓦济里斯坦冲突后的安全,以及随之而来的省合并(FATA-KP合并)。简而言之,本文将概念分析与对北瓦济里斯坦冲突后国家安全和社会安全的实证观察相结合,以阐明前部落机构“有争议的”和平的根本原因。虽然这个讨论是上下文驱动的,但大多数分析都是适用的,必要时,分析冲突后环境中的国家安全和社会安全。
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引用次数: 2
Japan’s responses to China’s rise: Soft balancing in Southeast Asia 日本对中国崛起的回应:东南亚的软平衡
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-07-19 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2021.1942849
Bhubhinda Singh
ABSTRACT Japan’s threat perceptions toward China have hardened over the post-Cold War period. This led Tokyo to rely more on overt balancing strategies compared with engagement and hedging strategies. While hard balancing measures are widely discussed in the literature, little or no attention is paid to soft balancing. Though concerned about China’s strategic rise, Japan’s strategic options are limited by the entrenched normative constraints within the security policymaking structure. These conditions make soft balancing a critical and viable strategy for Japan. The prominence of soft balancing is illustrated by analyzing Japan’s response to China’s widening influence in Southeast Asia, primarily focusing on two areas – East Asian multilateralism and the South China Sea territorial disputes. Empirically, this paper offers a more nuanced analysis of Japan’s response to China’s strategic rise; and theoretically, explains the way Japan’s case strengthens the conceptual utility of soft balancing through the incorporation of a normative perspective.
在后冷战时期,日本对中国的威胁认知变得更加强烈。这导致东京更多地依赖于公开的平衡策略,而不是接触和对冲策略。虽然硬平衡措施在文献中被广泛讨论,但很少或没有注意到软平衡。尽管对中国的战略崛起感到担忧,但日本的战略选择受到安全决策结构中根深蒂固的规范约束的限制。这些情况使得软平衡成为日本的一项关键而可行的战略。通过分析日本对中国在东南亚日益扩大的影响力的反应,主要集中在两个领域——东亚多边主义和南中国海领土争端,可以说明软平衡的重要性。从经验上看,本文对日本对中国战略崛起的反应进行了更为细致的分析;从理论上解释了日本的案例如何通过纳入规范视角来强化软平衡的概念效用。
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引用次数: 0
Beyond Mahanianism: the evolution of China’s policy discussion on sea power development 超越马汉主义:中国海权发展政策讨论的演变
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-07-09 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2021.1949583
E. Chan
ABSTRACT China’s sea power has been a continual discussion among scholars and policymakers, specifically regarding the kind of maritime power China is about to develop. Many strategists assume that China has adopted the Mahanian approach of constructing a strong naval power through the control of major merchant sea-lanes and offshore bases. However, this assumption is problematic. Since the mid-2000s, many Chinese scholars and strategists have proposed various approaches to how China should become a strong maritime power using alternative methods. This article organizes these approaches into different schools of thought and examines how they are developed. After years of policy debate on sea power construction, Chinese academics and policy practitioners have agreed that China could develop its sea powers not just with a dominant navy, but also through an emphasis on the importance of domestic maritime governance and diplomatic coercion. This approach goes beyond any understanding of Mahanianism. These findings help to reveal new perspectives with which to understand China’s multidimensional sea power, especially the use of gray-zone strategy in the South China Sea in recent years.
中国的海权一直是学者和政策制定者讨论的焦点,特别是关于中国将发展什么样的海权。许多战略家认为,中国已经采取了马汉式的方式,通过控制主要的商船航线和近海基地来建设强大的海军力量。然而,这种假设是有问题的。自2000年代中期以来,许多中国学者和战略家提出了各种各样的方法,以探讨中国如何利用替代方法成为一个强大的海上大国。本文将这些方法组织成不同的思想流派,并研究它们是如何发展起来的。经过多年关于海权建设的政策辩论,中国学者和政策实践者一致认为,中国发展海权不仅要依靠一支占主导地位的海军,而且要通过强调国内海洋治理和外交胁迫的重要性。这种方法超越了对马哈尼主义的理解。这些发现有助于揭示理解中国多维海上力量的新视角,特别是近年来在南中国海使用灰色地带战略。
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引用次数: 1
Spies, Diplomats and Deceit: Exploring the persistent role of diplomatic missions in North Korea’s WMD proliferation and arms trafficking networks 间谍、外交官和欺骗:探索外交使团在朝鲜大规模杀伤性武器扩散和武器贩运网络中的持续作用
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-07-05 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2021.1942848
Daniel Salisbury
ABSTRACT North Korea frequently uses diplomatic missions, diplomats and intelligence officers in its Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) proliferation and arms trafficking networks. The paper places the use of these assets in historical context, provides a basic typology of their role, and considers why they have featured in North Korea’s networks. The paper identifies a number of trends surrounding the use of North Korean missions – including the types and locations of missions featuring in specific types of proliferation and arms dealing activities, the prominence of larger missions and use of third country and regional hubs. It argues that the persistence of these assets in the DPRK’s networks is largely a result of convenience and diplomatic immunity. The paper concludes by recommending further action to counter these assets while arguing that the phenomenon will continue to be a challenging feature of North Korea’s proliferation and arms trading activities.
朝鲜在其大规模杀伤性武器(WMD)扩散和武器贩运网络中经常使用外交使团、外交官和情报官员。本文将这些资产的使用置于历史背景中,提供了它们角色的基本类型,并考虑了它们为什么会出现在朝鲜的网络中。该文件确定了围绕朝鲜特派团使用的一些趋势,包括特派团的类型和地点,以特定类型的扩散和武器交易活动为特色,较大特派团的突出地位以及使用第三国和区域中心。它认为,这些资产持续存在于朝鲜的网络中,主要是便利和外交豁免的结果。该报告最后建议采取进一步行动来对抗这些资产,同时认为这种现象将继续成为朝鲜扩散和武器贸易活动的一个具有挑战性的特征。
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引用次数: 1
China’s quiet challenges at sea: explaining China’s maritime activities in the Yellow Sea, 2010–2020 中国在海上的悄然挑战:解读中国在黄海的海上活动,2010-2020
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-03 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2021.1929928
Sungmin Cho
ABSTRACT The Chinese military activities in the Yellow Sea have visibly increased. Compared to the South or East China Sea, however, China has not escalated tensions to the strategic level by employing paramilitary and nonmilitary tools of influence. The “regional hegemony” thesis can partially explain the increase of China’s military activities at the operational level. But it does not explain why China refrains from posing strategic challenges in the Yellow Sea in the way it does in the South and East China Seas. I argue that China’s defense advantages in the Yellow Sea and strategic interests in maintaining close ties with South Korea have motivated Beijing to avoid strategic crisis in the Yellow Sea. Simultaneously, however, the strategic competition with the United States has motivated China to accumulate its influence through military activities in the region. This article traces China’s military activities in the Yellow Sea and examines the Chinese discourses on this understudied region.
中国在黄海的军事活动明显增加。然而,与南中国海或东中国海相比,中国并没有通过使用准军事和非军事的影响力工具将紧张局势升级到战略层面。“地区霸权”理论可以部分解释中国军事活动在作战层面的增加。但这并不能解释为什么中国不像在南中国海和东中国海那样在黄海提出战略挑战。我认为,中国在黄海的防御优势以及与韩国保持密切联系的战略利益促使北京避免在黄海发生战略危机。然而,与此同时,与美国的战略竞争促使中国通过在该地区的军事活动积累影响力。本文追溯了中国在黄海的军事活动,并考察了中国在这一未被充分研究的地区的言论。
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引用次数: 2
Colonial Origins of Sons of the Soil Insurgency: Maoist Rebellion in Central India 土地之子叛乱的殖民起源:印度中部毛派叛乱
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-04-09 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1854228
S. Mukherjee
ABSTRACT What is the role of colonial institutions in creating the conditions for nativist sons of the soil (SoS) insurgency? The literature on sons of the soil conflicts has not explored the historical legacies of colonial institutions, nor has it sufficiently analyzed how land tenure institutions create sons of the soil conflict. I address these gaps, by proposing a theory of how British colonial indirect rule and land tenure institutions in India caused exploitation of land resources of indigenous tribes by ethnic outsiders, which caused SoS grievances that persisted through path dependence and were later mobilized by Maoist rebels in the former princely state of Bastar in Central India. I show generalizability of this mechanism to other cases of leftist insurgency in Colombia, Mexico and Philippines.
殖民制度在为本土主义的土壤之子(so)叛乱创造条件方面发挥了什么作用?关于土地之子冲突的文献没有探索殖民制度的历史遗产,也没有充分分析土地权属制度是如何产生土地之子冲突的。我通过提出一种理论来解决这些差距,即英国在印度的间接殖民统治和土地所有权制度是如何导致外族人对土著部落土地资源的剥削的,这导致了SoS的不满,这种不满持续存在于路径依赖中,后来被印度中部前土邦巴斯塔尔的毛派叛乱分子动员起来。我将这种机制推广到哥伦比亚、墨西哥和菲律宾的左翼叛乱中。
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引用次数: 0
From cyber denial to cyber punishment: What keeps Japanese warriors from active defense operations? 从网络拒绝到网络惩罚:是什么阻止了日本武士的积极防御行动?
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-03-14 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2021.1896495
Noriyuki Katagiri
ABSTRACT I investigate reasons why Japan does not use “active-defense” cyber strategy for the purpose of cyberspace deterrence. I show that the reason has much to do with the passive nature of cyber strategy best characterized as “denial defense,” a strategic posture designed to deny attacks by defensive methods. I offer three reasons for this strategic choice. The first is the way the law works in Japan. The legal system, including the constitution, is the cornerstone of passive defense. All the reforms made in recent years to buttress Japan’s cyber policy have been within the existing legal framework. The second reason is the enormous technical constraints that Japan face on the use of cyber force. The final reason has much to do with the difficulty of sending credible threats to target audiences, reassuring the public , and controlling cyberspace escalation.
本文探讨了日本不采用“主动防御”网络战略进行网络空间威慑的原因。我认为,原因与网络战略的被动本质有很大关系,这种被动本质最好被描述为“拒绝防御”,一种旨在通过防御方法拒绝攻击的战略姿态。对于这一战略选择,我有三个理由。首先是日本法律的运作方式。包括宪法在内的法律体系是被动辩护的基石。近年来,所有支持日本网络政策的改革都是在现有的法律框架内进行的。第二个原因是日本在使用网络力量方面面临巨大的技术限制。最后一个原因与向目标受众发送可信的威胁、安抚公众以及控制网络空间升级的困难有很大关系。
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引用次数: 3
Mutual trust without a strong collective identity? Examining the Shanghai cooperation organization as a nascent security community 没有强烈的集体认同的相互信任?考察上海合作组织作为一个新生的安全共同体
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-03-08 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2021.1895115
James MacHaffie
ABSTRACT It has long been assumed that security communities form in the international system based on at least two criteria, having a strong collective identity and mutual trust among their members. Security is gleaned through mutual trust, while community coalesces around a strong collective identity and shared values. The Shanghai Cooperation Organization exhibits traits of a security community, where its structure is designed to institutionalize mutual trust, but the organization lacks a cohesive collective identity, especially since the inclusion of India and Pakistan into the organization, which has caused a weakening in the Russia-China driven identity within the intergovernmental organization. This paper examines how the SCO can function as a security community, arguing that a strong collective identity is only a sufficient condition for the establishment of a security community, mutual trust being the only ingredient necessary for a security community to form.
长期以来,人们一直认为,在国际体系中形成的安全共同体至少基于两个标准,即具有强烈的集体认同和成员之间的相互信任。安全来自相互信任,而社区则围绕着强大的集体认同和共同价值观凝聚在一起。上海合作组织表现出安全共同体的特征,其结构旨在将相互信任制度化,但该组织缺乏凝聚力的集体认同,特别是自从印度和巴基斯坦加入该组织以来,这导致了俄罗斯-中国在政府间组织内部的身份削弱。本文探讨了上海合作组织如何作为一个安全共同体发挥作用,认为强烈的集体认同只是建立安全共同体的充分条件,而相互信任是形成安全共同体的唯一必要因素。
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引用次数: 2
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Asian Security
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