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Tribal militias and political legitimacy in British India and Pakistan 英属印度和巴基斯坦的部落民兵和政治合法性
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2019.1672662
H. Akins
ABSTRACT Scholars have argued that governments rely on pro-government militias forces due to low state capacity or international pressure that limits how they use military force within the context of civil wars. This article argues that governments also strategically use militias both inside and outside of civil wars to support the political legitimacy of local systems of governance in developing states, especially in peripheral areas with limited government control. This suggests that long-term political motivations need to be considered alongside short-term tactical goals for a comprehensive understanding of militia support. This theory is supported by case studies of Pashtun tribal militias in British India and Pakistan based on archival research, interviews, and relevant secondary sources.
学者们认为,由于国家能力低下或国际压力限制了政府在内战背景下如何使用军事力量,政府依赖亲政府的民兵部队。本文认为,政府还在内战内外战略性地使用民兵,以支持发展中国家地方治理制度的政治合法性,特别是在政府控制有限的边缘地区。这表明,为了全面了解民兵的支持,需要考虑长期的政治动机和短期的战术目标。这一理论得到了对英属印度和巴基斯坦普什图部落民兵的案例研究的支持,这些研究基于档案研究、访谈和相关的二手资料。
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引用次数: 5
The pious or the doctrinaire? who supports suicide terrorism in Indonesia? 虔诚的还是教条主义的?谁支持印尼的自杀式恐怖主义?
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-09-01 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2019.1670641
C. C. Fair, Julie Chernov Hwang, Moiz Abdul Majid
ABSTRACT Indonesia is generally viewed as a moderate Muslim nation that episodically struggles with terrorism. Between 1981 and the end of 2016, Indonesia experienced 156 attacks from some 15 Islamist militant groups. However, the lineaments of popular support for Islamist militancy in Indonesia remain understudied. In this paper, we expand upon the existing literature on popular support for Islamist violence in Indonesia by replicating and extending the empirical framework for modeling the relationship between support for various conceptualizations of Shari’a and support for Islamist violence offered by Fair, Littman and Nugent (2018) for Pakistan and extended to Bangladesh by Fair, Hamza and Heller (2017). To do so, we conduct ordered logistical regression analysis of Pew survey data which includes information about respondents’ religious beliefs and practice as well as support for Islamist violence. We find considerable evidence that their framework is useful for understanding support for violence in Indonesia.
印尼通常被视为一个温和的穆斯林国家,偶尔会与恐怖主义作斗争。从1981年到2016年底,印度尼西亚经历了大约15个伊斯兰激进组织的156次袭击。然而,印尼民众对伊斯兰激进主义的支持情况仍未得到充分研究。在本文中,我们通过复制和扩展费尔、利特曼和纽金特(2018)为巴基斯坦提供的对伊斯兰教法各种概念的支持与对伊斯兰教暴力的支持之间关系建模的经验框架,扩展了关于印度尼西亚民众支持伊斯兰教暴力的现有文献,并由费尔、哈姆扎和海勒(2017)扩展到孟加拉国。为此,我们对皮尤调查数据进行了有序的逻辑回归分析,其中包括受访者的宗教信仰和实践信息,以及对伊斯兰暴力的支持。我们发现大量证据表明,它们的框架有助于理解对印度尼西亚暴力的支持。
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引用次数: 5
Institutions, cooperation, and hegemony: a comparative analysis of Russia’s cooperative hegemonic strategy in Central Asia’s key institutional frameworks 制度、合作与霸权:中亚主要制度框架下俄罗斯合作霸权战略的比较分析
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-07-02 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1784877
Janko Šćepanović
ABSTRACT Since the 2000s, Russia intensified its relations with the Central Asia. This is particularly visible in the increased institutionalization of the cooperation. This paper argues that regional regimes like the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Eurasian Economic Union (EEU) became the prime tools in Russia’s cooperative hegemony in the Central Asia. This strategy relies on co-opting of the smaller partners into institutional settings for the purpose of not just enhancing cooperation but also reestablishing a softer form of domination over the region and transforming it into a regional pole. This in turn would be a foundation for Russia’s return to the global stage. As the paper shows, this strategy relies on would-be hegemon’s ability to convince a sufficient number of regional partners to seek membership in these regimes, share the power with them, and remain committed to the project.
自2000年代以来,俄罗斯加强了与中亚的关系。这一点在合作日益制度化方面尤为明显。本文认为,集体安全条约组织(CSTO)和欧亚经济联盟(EEU)等区域性机制成为俄罗斯在中亚合作霸权的主要工具。这一战略依赖于将较小的伙伴纳入机构设置,目的不仅是加强合作,而且是在该地区重新建立一种较软的统治形式,并将其转变为区域极点。这反过来将成为俄罗斯重返全球舞台的基础。正如本文所示,这一战略依赖于潜在霸主说服足够数量的地区伙伴寻求加入这些政权,与它们分享权力,并继续致力于该项目的能力。
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引用次数: 4
Realism revisited: China’s status-driven wars against Koguryo in the Sui and Tang dynasties 重新审视现实主义:中国在隋唐时期对高句丽的地位战争
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-06-30 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1782887
Christina Lai
ABSTRACT China’s capabilities and prestige in the Sui and Tang dynasties (581–907) were stronger than the Koguryo Kingdom, but Koguryo resisted China’s tributary system more than other countries during 598–668. This article unpacks the unique role of the tributary system within Chinese foreign policy toward Koguryo, and it shows how the symbolic concept of political prestige affected China’s decisions to go to war against Koguryo during the Sui and Tang dynasties. It highlights the role of status and legitimacy that the Chinese emperors attached to China’s tributary systems, and argues that these status concerns, rather than the material factors emphasized by offensive realism and defensive realism, drove Chinese behavior. China’s capabilities were rising compared to those of the Koguryo kingdom, so there were no incentives for preventive war, and political discourse among China’s political elites showed great concern over status. Their justifications of military expeditions and heated debates in the Chinese court provide strong evidence illustrating this consistent struggle to reclaim supremacy in Northeastern Asia. The finding of the study indicates that Asian history should not simply be treated as empirical data to test Western international relations (IR) theory; rather, Asian history can contribute to theory building in IR.
隋唐时期(581-907)中国的国力和威望都强于高句丽,但高句丽在598-668年间对中国朝贡制度的抵制比其他国家更强烈。本文揭示了朝贡制度在中国对高句丽外交政策中的独特作用,并展示了政治威望的象征性概念如何影响中国在隋唐时期对高句丽宣战的决定。它强调了地位和合法性的作用,中国皇帝附属于中国的朝贡系统,并认为,这些地位的关注,而不是由进攻性现实主义和防御性现实主义所强调的物质因素,推动了中国的行为。与高句丽王国相比,中国的实力正在上升,因此没有预防性战争的动机,中国政治精英之间的政治话语表现出对地位的极大关注。他们对军事远征的辩护和中国朝廷的激烈辩论提供了强有力的证据,说明了这种在东北亚重新获得霸权的持续斗争。研究结果表明,亚洲历史不应简单地作为检验西方国际关系理论的经验数据;相反,亚洲历史可以为国际关系的理论建设做出贡献。
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引用次数: 1
Missile wars in the Asia Pacific: the threat of Chinese regional missiles and U.S.-allied missile defense response 亚太地区的导弹战争:中国区域导弹的威胁和美国盟友的导弹防御反应
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-06-20 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1769069
Jaganath Sankaran
ABSTRACT China has amassed a large arsenal of regional ballistic missiles capable of ranging all of Asia-Pacific. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF) has also developed detailed doctrines articulating the use of these missiles to deny the United States and allied nations’ freedom of action during a regional contingency. The PLARF practices many of its exercises based on these doctrines and under realistic conditions that mimic adversary counter-tactics. In response, the U.S. and allied states deploy significant ballistic missile defense assets to deter and defend against the use of missiles. In this paper, an empirical evaluation of the performance of these regional missile defenses is conducted. The results indicate that regional missile defense remain robust and effective against small coercive signaling strikes. Against a limited suppression strike campaign aiming to delay and disrupt military movements, missile defenses remain robust if an early warning is available. Finally, against a large-scale coordinated missile campaign, missile defense assets are spread thin, and marginal cost to the defense is substantially high. If China can launch multiples waves of large-scale missile salvos or if critical missile assets are rendered nonfunctional, it could cause severe damage to military capabilities.
中国已经积累了大量能够覆盖整个亚太地区的区域弹道导弹。中国人民解放军火箭军(PLARF)也制定了详细的理论,阐明在地区紧急情况下使用这些导弹来剥夺美国及其盟国的行动自由。中国人民解放军武装部队的许多演习都是基于这些理论,并在模拟对手反战术的现实条件下进行的。作为回应,美国及其盟国部署了重要的弹道导弹防御资产,以阻止和防御导弹的使用。本文对这些区域导弹防御系统的性能进行了实证评估。结果表明,区域导弹防御系统对小型强制信号打击仍然稳健有效。针对旨在延迟和扰乱军事行动的有限压制打击行动,如果早期预警可用,导弹防御系统将保持强大。最后,针对大规模协调的导弹战役,导弹防御资产分散,防御的边际成本相当高。如果中国能够发射多波大规模导弹齐射,或者关键导弹资产无法发挥作用,可能会对军事能力造成严重损害。
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引用次数: 0
Vietnam and the search for security leadership in ASEAN 越南和寻求东盟安全领导地位
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-06-07 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1769068
Ralf Emmers, Huong Le Thu
ABSTRACT Indonesia has traditionally been viewed as a de facto leader of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the regional body remains the cornerstone of Indonesian foreign policy. The paper addresses the question of whether other member states have become influential actors or even sectoral leaders in their own right by playing a direct role in a particular aspect of ASEAN affairs. This question is addressed by examining the regional policies of Vietnam, a country that has been mostly neglected in the existing ASEAN literature despite its strategic weight. The paper focuses on the evolving role of Vietnam in ASEAN and highlights its diplomatic initiatives, as well as various conditions to evaluate its potential to take up a leading security role in the regional body in the years to come.
传统上,印尼一直被视为东南亚国家联盟(ASEAN)事实上的领导者,而东盟仍是印尼外交政策的基石。该文件探讨了其他成员国是否通过在东盟事务的某一特定方面发挥直接作用而成为有影响力的行为者,甚至是部门领导者的问题。这个问题是通过研究越南的区域政策来解决的,越南是一个在现有的东盟文献中被忽视的国家,尽管它具有战略重要性。该文件着重于越南在东盟中不断演变的角色,并强调了其外交倡议,以及评估其在未来几年在该地区机构中发挥主要安全作用的潜力的各种条件。
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引用次数: 13
Do China’s New Islands allow it to militarily dominate the South China Sea? 中国的新岛屿是否允许其军事主导南海?
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-06-04 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1749598
Shahryar Pasandideh
ABSTRACT Since the start of China’s island-building efforts, there has been widespread concern that these islands would host long-range sensors and munitions and thereby facilitate Chinese military dominance in the South China Sea. This article explains that the military advantages that these islands provide are overstated. The interplay of geography and constraints on sensor coverage leaves China ill-positioned to detect ships and aircraft throughout the South China Sea, let alone to target them. While these technical constraints place hard limits on Chinese military capabilities, ameliorating them would likely face severe political constraints and major tradeoffs in force structure. Consequently, there are grounds for considerable skepticism of widely held concerns about the military implications of China’s island-building efforts. The military balance in the South China Sea has not been greatly altered and China’s anti-access capabilities, such as they are, have not been fully extended into the South China Sea.
自从中国开始造岛以来,人们一直普遍担心这些岛屿将部署远程传感器和弹药,从而促进中国在南中国海的军事主导地位。这篇文章解释了这些岛屿提供的军事优势被夸大了。地理位置和传感器覆盖范围的限制相互作用,使中国在探测整个南海的船只和飞机方面处于不利地位,更不用说瞄准它们了。虽然这些技术上的限制对中国的军事能力构成了严格的限制,但要改善这些限制,可能会面临严重的政治限制和军队结构上的重大权衡。因此,人们有理由对中国造岛行动的军事影响产生相当大的怀疑。南海的军事平衡并没有发生很大的改变,中国的反介入能力,尽管如此,并没有完全延伸到南海。
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引用次数: 4
Japanese naval activities in Southeast Asian waters: building on 50 years of maritime security capacity building 日本海军在东南亚海域的活动:基于50年的海上安全能力建设
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-05-25 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1759552
J. Bradford
ABSTRACT Japan has included improvement of Southeast Asian maritime security as an aim of its foreign policy for the last fifty years. This article analyzes the evolution of Japan’s maritime security initiatives in Southeast Asia by documenting major events and offering new insights into the most important inflection points associated with that history. Unlike previous accounts that portray this history as a matter of gradual change, it demonstrates that Japan’s initiatives passed through three distinct phases (1969–1998, 1999–2009, and 2010-present) with the shifts between each being marked by quick expansions of the Japanese agencies and partner organizations involved. This history provides critical context for understanding Japan’s apparent transition into a fourth phase in which Japanese cooperative activities will begin working to strengthen Southeast Asian military capacities.
近50年来,日本一直将改善东南亚海上安全作为其外交政策的目标之一。本文通过记录重大事件,分析了日本在东南亚海上安全倡议的演变,并对与该历史相关的最重要拐点提供了新的见解。与之前将这段历史描述为渐进变化的描述不同,它表明日本的倡议经历了三个不同的阶段(1969-1998年,1999-2009年和2010年至今),每个阶段之间的转变都以日本机构和合作伙伴组织的快速扩张为标志。这段历史为理解日本向第四阶段的明显过渡提供了关键背景,在第四阶段,日本的合作活动将开始加强东南亚的军事能力。
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引用次数: 2
How Islamist is the Abu Sayyaf Group (ASG)? An ideological assessment 阿布沙耶夫组织有多伊斯兰?意识形态评估
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-03-22 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1742700
Christoph Schuck
ABSTRACT This article demonstrates that militant groups who base their actions on Islam do so for two reasons: Either they do in fact pursue Islamist objectives, or the groups use what appears to be an Islamist narrative in order to pursue goals which actually have no religious basis. In the first part, conceptual issues are discussed to differentiate these motivations and examining how they are implemented beyond rhetoric. In the second part, the conceptual findings are applied to the Philippine Abu Sayyaf (ASG), since there is no agreement in academic debate on the group’s classification. It is demonstrated that the ASG had intrinsically Islamist features that continuously changed into a more instrumentalizing Islamist behavior. Despite the high fragmentation of the group today, it is argued that the ASG is a largely non-Islamist group which knows how to use an Islamist narrative to portray itself in ways that give it an advantage.
本文表明,以伊斯兰教为行动基础的激进组织这样做有两个原因:要么他们实际上是在追求伊斯兰教的目标,要么这些组织使用看似伊斯兰教的叙事来追求实际上没有宗教基础的目标。在第一部分中,我们讨论了区分这些动机的概念问题,并考察了它们是如何在修辞之外实现的。在第二部分,概念上的发现适用于菲律宾阿布沙耶夫(ASG),因为在学术辩论中对该集团的分类没有一致意见。研究表明,ASG具有内在的伊斯兰特征,这些特征不断地转变为更工具化的伊斯兰行为。尽管该组织今天高度分裂,但有人认为,阿布沙耶夫是一个很大程度上非伊斯兰主义的组织,它知道如何利用伊斯兰主义的叙述来描绘自己,从而获得优势。
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引用次数: 3
China’s long march to national rejuvenation: toward a Neo-Imperial order in East Asia? 中国民族复兴的长征:走向东亚新帝国秩序?
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2020-03-20 DOI: 10.1080/14799855.2020.1739651
Friso M. S. Stevens
ABSTRACT The material disparity with the West, and the havoc wreaked in the period of Japanese imperial encroachment on Chinese territory and autonomy after the First Opium War, have shaped and guided China’s collective memory and its shared desire of national rejuvenation to this day. In tracing the deeper historical roots of what Xi Jinping contemporarily frames as a “Chinese dream” of “wealth and power,” the article discerns key actors, events, and organizing principles in a long process toward restoring China’s deemed rightful place in the regional system. Taking into account the region-specific socio-historical complex of China and East Asia, and further exploring the parameters of an International Relations theory with “Chinese characteristics,” the article’s comparative historical analysis details how China’s leaders have chosen to mobilize the nation’s “domestic resources” in their common pursuit of national rejuvenation. Providing greater insight into how and according to which interlinked domestic and foreign explanatory markers this is attained, the article argues that we are currently in the last phase of rejuvenation and advances implications for China’s further trajectory.
与西方的物质差距,以及第一次鸦片战争后日本帝国主义侵吞中国领土和自治权所造成的浩劫,塑造和引导了中国的集体记忆和民族复兴的共同愿望。考虑到中国和东亚地区特定的社会历史复杂性,并进一步探索具有“中国特色”的国际关系理论的参数,文章的比较历史分析详细说明了中国领导人如何选择动员国家的“国内资源”来共同追求民族复兴。本文更深入地探讨了如何以及根据哪些国内外相互关联的解释性标志实现这一目标,认为我们目前处于复兴的最后阶段,并提出了对中国进一步发展轨迹的启示。
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引用次数: 6
期刊
Asian Security
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