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Trade Effects of Eurasian Economic Union and Global Production Sharing: A Gravity Analysis 欧亚经济联盟的贸易效应与全球生产共享:一个重力分析
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-03-16 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2021.1901763
Sanjeev Vasudevan, Suresh Babu Manalaya
This study examines the effects of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) on global production sharing and trade in parts and components. With a panel dataset of disaggregated bilateral exports of EAEU members and 28 partners, we estimate an augmented gravity model for 2010–2017. To mitigate endogeneity issues, we employ the Hausman and Taylor Estimator. The study has two important findings. First, there are significant trade diversion effects on the exports of parts and components. Second, the formation of EAEU has resulted in a reduction in intra-bloc exports. In addition to these, we find that market size, inter-country differentials of income, business-friendly climate, and cultural similarities are the other significant determinants of bilateral trade. Based on the empirical analysis, we propose that the EAEU normalise the Common External Tariff below the current level to minimise trade diversion.
本研究考察了欧亚经济联盟(EAEU)对全球生产共享和零部件贸易的影响。利用欧亚经济联盟成员国和28个合作伙伴的分类双边出口面板数据集,我们估计了2010-2017年的增强引力模型。为了减轻内生性问题,我们使用了Hausman和Taylor估计器。这项研究有两个重要发现。一是零部件出口存在明显的贸易转移效应。其次,欧亚经济联盟的形成导致了集团内部出口的减少。除此之外,我们发现市场规模、国家间收入差异、商业友好型气候和文化相似性是双边贸易的其他重要决定因素。在实证分析的基础上,我们建议欧亚经济联盟将共同对外关税正常化至低于当前水平,以尽量减少贸易转移。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of Trade Openness in Sub-Saharan Africa: Do Institutions Matter? 撒哈拉以南非洲贸易开放的决定因素:制度重要吗?
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2020.1858323
Ibrahim Ngouhouo, Tii N. Nchofoung, A. A. Njamen Kengdo
ABSTRACT This paper aims to analyse the determinants of trade openness in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries focusing on the role play by domestic institutions. To achieve this, the Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) is carried out on 36 SSA countries over the period 1996-2017. The results of our estimation reveal that domestic institutions as a composite index determines trade openness as a composite share of Squalli and Wilson (2011). In addition, government effectiveness, Regulatory quality and rule of law were all enhancing on trade openness. Moreover, access to sea, foreign direct investment, and trade openness lagged by one period all significantly determine trade openness in our estimations, with all these effects positive. When trade share was considered as a robustness check, inflation and population growth were further found to be significantly determine trade openness, whereas GDP per capital was significantly trade enhancing. This result was robust to alternative institutional measures and sensitive to the choices of countries and sample periods considered. The policy implications of study engaged the different states of SSA to focus on improving the quality of their domestic institutions in elaborating their international trade policies.
摘要本文旨在分析撒哈拉以南非洲(SSA)国家贸易开放的决定因素,重点关注国内机构所扮演的角色。为了实现这一目标,在1996-2017年期间,对36个SSA国家进行了广义矩方法(GMM)。我们的估计结果表明,国内机构作为一个综合指数,决定了贸易开放度作为Squalli和Wilson(2011)的综合份额。此外,政府效率、监管质量和法治在贸易开放方面都在提高。此外,在我们的估计中,出海、外国直接投资和贸易开放滞后一个时期都显著决定了贸易开放,所有这些影响都是积极的。当贸易份额被认为是一种稳健性检验时,通货膨胀和人口增长进一步被发现在很大程度上决定了贸易开放程度,而人均国内生产总值则显著促进了贸易。这一结果对其他体制措施来说是稳健的,对所考虑的国家和样本期的选择也很敏感。该研究的政策含义使SSA的不同州在制定国际贸易政策时专注于提高其国内机构的质量。
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引用次数: 27
On the Nonlinear Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the World Food Prices Under Different Markets Conditions 不同市场条件下石油价格冲击对世界粮食价格的非线性影响
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2020.1870524
Manel Youssef, Khaled Mokni
This paper investigates the impact of oil price shocks on the world food prices. We use the structural VAR model to disentangle oil price shocks into supply, aggregate demand, and oil-specific demand-driven shocks. Moreover, we employ a new approach based on the Markov regime-switching quantile regression (MRS-QR) model to investigate the response of food prices to different oil price shocks. Based on monthly data from 1992 to 2018, results show that the reaction of food prices to different structural oil shocks depends on the oil price regimes and varies in significance, sign, and size throughout the food market conditions. Besides, the increases in regression coefficients and smoothed probability during food and oil crisis periods confirm the existence of contagion effects between oil and food markets. Moreover, we find that the supply and aggregate demand shocks do not show a strong contribution to the presence of this phenomenon. Conversely, oil-specific demand shocks represent the main factor that contributes to contagion between oil and food markets.
本文研究了石油价格冲击对世界粮食价格的影响。我们使用结构性VAR模型将油价冲击分解为供给、总需求和石油特定需求驱动的冲击。此外,我们采用了一种基于马尔可夫状态切换分位数回归(MRS-QR)模型的新方法来研究食品价格对不同油价冲击的响应。基于1992 - 2018年的月度数据,研究结果表明,食品价格对不同结构性石油冲击的反应取决于石油价格机制,并且在整个食品市场条件下的显著性、标志和规模都有所不同。此外,粮食和石油危机时期回归系数和平滑概率的增加证实了石油和粮食市场之间存在传染效应。此外,我们发现供给和总需求冲击对这一现象的存在没有很强的贡献。相反,特定于石油的需求冲击是导致石油和粮食市场之间传染的主要因素。
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引用次数: 4
Retraction: How Can Public Education Spending Affects Moroccan and Tunisian GDP per Capita? ARDL Approach 撤回:公共教育支出如何影响摩洛哥和突尼斯的人均GDP ?ARDL方法
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2020.1868739
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引用次数: 0
Remittances and manufacturing sector growth in sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲的汇款和制造业增长
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2020.1870523
Emmanuel K. K. Lartey, Getachew Nigatu
This paper analyzes the link between remittances and the growth of manufacturing value-added (MVA) and explores whether the quality of institutions and exchange rate policy matter for the dynamics of the relationship in sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. The findings suggest that when the level of financial development is accounted for, remittances have a positive impact on MVA. The standalone effect of remittances on MVA is, however, negative. The results also suggest that there is a positive influence of exchange rate flexibility on the dynamics between remittances and MVA. Furthermore, improvement in the business environment seems to matter for the performance of the manufacturing sector, but it is not significant to the dynamics between remittances and MVA. The development of the financial sector, on that account, emerges as an important factor influencing the impact of remittances on the growth of the manufacturing sector in SSA countries.
本文分析了汇款与制造业增加值(MVA)增长之间的联系,并探讨了机构质量和汇率政策是否对撒哈拉以南非洲国家的关系动态有影响。研究结果表明,如果考虑到金融发展水平,汇款对MVA有积极影响。然而,汇款对MVA的单独影响是负面的。研究结果还表明,汇率灵活性对汇款和MVA之间的动态有积极影响。此外,商业环境的改善似乎对制造业的表现很重要,但对汇款和MVA之间的动态并不重要。因此,金融部门的发展成为影响汇款对撒哈拉以南非洲国家制造业增长影响的一个重要因素。
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引用次数: 0
Transportation Mode Choice and International Fragmentation of Production: Evidence from a Developing Country 运输方式选择与国际生产碎片化——来自发展中国家的证据
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2021-01-02 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2020.1870522
K. Türkcan, Hulya Saygili
ABSTRACT The objective of this study is to analyze the effects of fragmentation of production measured by the parts and components trade on the choice of transportation mode including air, sea and road. The paper attempts to account for the advantages and disadvantages of alternative transportation modes in short-, medium- and long-distance trade. Using a detailed data set (Harmonized System12-digit product level statistics for the period 2006–2014 and 143 countries) of Turkey’s machinery exports, we show that fragmentation of production plays a significant role in the selection of the transportation mode. In particular, road transportation with good infrastructure is a significant trade facilitating mode of transportation for nearby trade partners when trade involves P&C and bulky products.
摘要本研究的目的是分析零部件贸易衡量的生产碎片化对航空、海运和公路运输方式选择的影响。本文试图说明替代运输方式在短、中、长距离贸易中的优缺点。使用土耳其机械出口的详细数据集(2006-2014年期间和143个国家的协调系统12位数产品级统计数据),我们表明生产的碎片化在运输模式的选择中发挥着重要作用。特别是,当贸易涉及P&C和大宗产品时,具有良好基础设施的公路运输是附近贸易伙伴的一种重要的贸易便利运输方式。
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引用次数: 1
Can Stimulus Checks Boost an Economy Under Covid-19? Evidence from South Korea 新冠肺炎下的刺激措施能提振经济吗?来自韩国的证据
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-12-29 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2020.1864435
Moon-Jung Kim, Soohyung Lee
ABSTRACT Various countries have implemented transfer programs to individuals since the Covid-19 outbreaks. However, the extent to which such transfers alleviate economic recessions is unclear. This paper analyzes a South Korean program, which provided vouchers redeemable only at small local businesses. We find that, due to the program, over 30% of households across all income groups increased their food and overall household spending, but the usage restriction may have affected consumer choice as well as competition among businesses. While the employment and sales of small businesses improved, the program’s fiscal sustainability is in question because of the large tax exemption.
摘要自新冠肺炎疫情爆发以来,各国都实施了个人转移计划。然而,这种转移在多大程度上缓解了经济衰退尚不清楚。本文分析了韩国的一项计划,该计划提供只能在当地小企业兑换的代金券。我们发现,由于该计划,所有收入群体中超过30%的家庭增加了食品和整体家庭支出,但使用限制可能影响了消费者的选择以及企业之间的竞争。虽然小企业的就业和销售有所改善,但由于大量免税,该计划的财政可持续性受到质疑。
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引用次数: 22
Protectionism, Competitiveness and Inequality: Cross-Country Evidence from Soccer 保护主义、竞争力与不平等:来自足球的跨国证据
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-12-11 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2022.2062613
H. Yilmazkuday
Using club-level data on domestic-league and international points from 73 countries, this paper achieves a policy evaluation of country-specific regulations regarding soccer success. The results show that restrictions on foreign direct investment reduce the international competitiveness of clubs, whereas restrictions on international migration policies have no significant impact on it. Domestic inequality across clubs increases with restrictions on a minimum number of home-grown players, while it goes down with restrictions on foreign direct investment or restrictions on a maximum number of foreign players. The results are robust to the consideration of other domestic regulations, market value of clubs or number of matches played.
本文利用来自73个国家的国内联赛和国际积分的俱乐部级数据,对有关足球成功的具体国家法规进行了政策评估。结果表明,限制外国直接投资降低了俱乐部的国际竞争力,而限制国际移民政策对俱乐部的国际竞争力没有显著影响。俱乐部之间的国内不平等随着对本土球员最低数量的限制而加剧,而随着对外国直接投资的限制或对外国球员最大数量的限制而下降。考虑到其他国内法规,俱乐部的市场价值或比赛数量,结果是稳健的。
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引用次数: 1
Decomposing the Gains From Trade Through the Standard Gravity Variables 用标准重力变量分解贸易收益
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-11-12 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2020.1855461
H. Yilmazkuday
ABSTRACT Using the implications of a trade model, this paper measures the gains from trade through the standard gravity variables. Theoretically, it is shown that such gains can be calculated by using the estimated coefficients of these variables in a gravity regression, together with the bilateral expenditure shares of countries investigated. Empirically, the results show that the total actual gains through all gravity variables in the world have increased from about in 1950s to about as of 2015 that can be decomposed as through proximity and through other gravity variables. Gains through free trade agreements (FTAs) have started dominating among these other variables starting from 1990s, following the Uruguay Round. Across countries, the total gains of OECD countries are about 1.5 times those of others, whereas the total gains of European countries are more than 10 times those of Pacific countries. Calculations based on the future potential gains from trade through policy-oriented gravity variables further suggest that there is room for an additional or of a welfare gain in the world through having free trade agreements or using common currencies, respectively.
本文利用贸易模型的含义,通过标准重力变量衡量贸易收益。从理论上讲,这种收益可以通过在重力回归中使用这些变量的估计系数以及所调查国家的双边支出份额来计算。经验结果表明,全球所有重力变量的总实际收益从20世纪50年代的约增加到2015年的约增加,可以分解为通过邻近和其他重力变量。自上世纪90年代乌拉圭回合谈判之后,自由贸易协定(fta)带来的收益开始在其他变量中占主导地位。从各国来看,经合组织国家的总收益约为其他国家的1.5倍,而欧洲国家的总收益是太平洋国家的10倍以上。通过以政策为导向的重力变量对贸易未来潜在收益进行的计算进一步表明,通过签订自由贸易协定或使用共同货币,世界上有额外或额外的福利收益空间。
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引用次数: 2
Trade-induced Unemployment in Labor-abundant and Capital-abundant OIC Countries: Asymmetric Evidence from Quantile-on-Quantile Regression 劳动力充足和资本充足的伊斯兰会议组织国家贸易引发的失业:来自分位数回归的非对称证据
IF 1.1 Q3 ECONOMICS Pub Date : 2020-10-01 DOI: 10.1080/10168737.2020.1841265
Sajid Ali, Z. Yusop, S. Kaliappan, Lee Chin
This study aims to analyze the impact of trade openness on unemployment in labor-abundant and capital-abundant countries of Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) by taking the data from 1991 to 2018. A new technique quantile-on-quantile (QQ) is applied to show how quantiles of trade openness asymmetrically affect the quantiles of unemployment by providing an appropriate framework to capture the overall dependence structure. 8 out of 10 capital-abundant countries show a positive association between trade openness and unemployment, while 7 out of 10 labor-abundant countries indicate a negative effect of trade openness on unemployment. Hence, the majority of selected labor-abundant and capital-abundant countries are validating Heckscher-Ohlin theory of international trade. The results show that the asymmetric intensity of trade-induced unemployment varies with countries at both bottom and upper quantiles of the distribution of data that require individual attention in postulating the policies related to trade and unemployment in OIC countries.
本研究旨在利用1991 - 2018年的数据,分析贸易开放对伊斯兰合作组织(OIC)劳动力充裕国和资本充裕国失业率的影响。本文采用一种新的分位数对分位数(QQ)技术,通过提供一个适当的框架来捕捉总体依赖结构,来显示贸易开放分位数如何不对称地影响失业分位数。10个资本丰富的国家中有8个显示贸易开放与失业之间的正相关关系,而10个劳动力丰富的国家中有7个显示贸易开放对失业的负面影响。因此,大多数选定的劳动力充裕和资本充裕的国家都在验证赫克歇尔-俄林的国际贸易理论。结果表明,贸易引起的失业的不对称强度因数据分布的底部和顶部分位数的国家而异,在假设伊斯兰会议组织国家与贸易和失业有关的政策时需要个别注意。
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引用次数: 4
期刊
INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC JOURNAL
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