Environmental and Sustainability Indicators最新文献_第2页

Ecological lens on prioritizing water security at sub-watershed level using Pressure-State-Response model and Ordinal Priority 基于压力-状态-响应模型和顺序优先级的亚流域水安全生态视角

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101139

Mohammad Tavosi , Mehdi Vafakhah , Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi , Sayed M. Bateni

Amid growing water crises, climate change, and intensified human activities, there is an urgent need to assess water conditions from an ecological perspective. This study evaluated Water Security with an Ecological Lens (WSEL) in the Gorganrud watershed using advanced models at a semi-distributed scale. The Gorganrud watershed is a strategic watershed in northeastern Iran facing critical challenges like drought, water scarcity, floods, and sedimentation. After conceptualizing and quantifying WSEL criteria and testing their collinearity through the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) method, two approaches the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model and the Ordinal Prioritization Approach (OPA) were employed and compared. The results of the study showed that the WSEL status was unevenly distributed among the sub-watersheds; some areas were in a critical state and required special management, while others showed successful performance despite the pressures to improve the status. Therefore, the adoption of smart management strategies, such as regulating water consumption in agriculture and implementing innovative cultivation techniques, could further enhance water security. The PSR model, aligning closely with field data, estimated the watershed's average WSEL at 0.42, while the OPA model indicated a more critical status with a mean of 0.3. The difference stemmed from the PSR model's integrated analysis of pressure, state, and response factors. Both models identified sub-watershed 6, located in the eastern part of the watershed, as low security (WSEL less than 0.05) and in need of immediate intervention. Overall, the integrated analytical approach provided an effective tool for sustainable water resource management at local and regional levels.

在日益严重的水危机、气候变化和人类活动加剧的背景下，迫切需要从生态学的角度对水状况进行评估。本研究采用先进的半分布模型，利用生态透镜（WSEL）对高甘鲁河流域的水安全进行了评价。戈尔干鲁德流域是伊朗东北部的一个战略流域，面临干旱、缺水、洪水和沉积等严峻挑战。在概念化和量化WSEL标准并通过方差膨胀因子（VIF）方法检验其共线性之后，采用压力-状态-响应（PSR）模型和顺序优先化方法（OPA）两种方法进行了比较。研究结果表明：流域间WSEL状态分布不均匀；有些领域处于危急状态，需要特别管理，而另一些领域尽管面临改善状况的压力，但表现良好。因此，采用智能管理策略，如规范农业用水和实施创新栽培技术，可以进一步增强水安全。PSR模型与现场数据密切相关，估计该流域的平均WSEL为0.42，而OPA模型表明，该流域的平均WSEL为0.3，处于更为关键的状态。这种差异源于PSR模型对压力、状态和响应因素的综合分析。两个模型均认为位于流域东部的6子流域安全系数较低（WSEL < 0.05），需要立即采取干预措施。总的来说，综合分析方法为地方和区域一级的可持续水资源管理提供了一个有效的工具。

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引用次数: 0

Bedrock geochemical baseline and pre-mining risk assessment of heavy metals in a potential lithium deposit in Sonora, Mexico: Implications for sustainable resource management 墨西哥索诺拉潜在锂矿床中重金属基岩地球化学基线和开采前风险评估：对可持续资源管理的影响

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101138

Xochitl Virginia Bello-Yañez , María-Concepción Martínez-Rodríguez , S.B. Sujitha , L.E. Campos-Villegas , Diego Domínguez-Solís , Héctor Guadalupe Ramírez-Escamilla , Ana Laura Cervantes-Najera , M.P. Jonathan

The clay-hosted lithium deposit in Sonora, Mexico, represents a potential mining site for this critical mineral, which is essential for clean energy technologies and currently in high demand during the energy transition. Establishing geochemical baselines is crucial for anticipating potential environmental risks before mining and for supporting a fair and sustainable energy transition. The objective was to report lithium (Li) concentrations and establish a geochemical baseline under pre-mining conditions by analyzing spatial distribution, statistical variability, and background comparisons, and to evaluate the degree of pollution and potential environmental risks, laying a foundation for incorporating sustainable policies. Therefore, 15 samples were collected from the bedrock of the Li deposit in Sonora, Mexico, to determine the concentrations of Li and other toxic heavy metals (Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, and Pb). Results revealed Li concentrations ranging from 301 to 5890 ppm, and multivariate analysis showed significant geochemical associations. The calculated environmental indices (

I_{geo}

, CF,

C_{\deg}

, PLI,

{PIN}_{emerow}

, Er, and RI) showed that most elements presented low contamination and ecological risk, with only localized moderate enrichment for Ni, Cu, and Zn. In contrast, arsenic showed extreme variability and posed a potential environmental risk. Thus, this study provides evidence that bridges geoscientific analysis with sustainability policy in mining, the first link of the supply chain, strengthening the foundations for responsible Li governance in emerging clay-hosted deposits and contributing to sustainable production and consumption.

墨西哥索诺拉的粘土锂矿床代表了这种关键矿物的潜在开采地点，这种矿物对清洁能源技术至关重要，目前在能源转型期间需求量很大。建立地球化学基线对于在采矿前预测潜在的环境风险以及支持公平和可持续的能源转型至关重要。目的是通过分析空间分布、统计变异性和背景比较，报告开采前条件下锂（Li）浓度，建立地球化学基线，评估污染程度和潜在环境风险，为制定可持续政策奠定基础。因此，从墨西哥索诺拉的Li矿床基岩中采集了15个样品，测定了Li和其他有毒重金属（Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn， As和Pb）的浓度。结果表明，土壤中Li浓度变化范围为301 ~ 5890 ppm，多变量分析结果表明，土壤中Li浓度与土壤的地球化学关系显著。计算的环境指数（Igeo、CF、Cdeg、PLI、PINemerow、Er和RI）显示，大多数元素的污染程度和生态风险较低，只有Ni、Cu和Zn局部富集。相比之下，砷表现出极端的可变性，并构成潜在的环境风险。因此，本研究提供了证据，将地球科学分析与矿业可持续性政策（供应链的第一个环节）联系起来，加强了新兴粘土矿床负责任的锂治理基础，并有助于可持续生产和消费。

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引用次数: 0

Thresholds of ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies at different spatio-temporal scales in hilly region of Southern China 华南丘陵区不同时空尺度生态系统服务权衡与协同阈值

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101131

Zhiying Tang , Yihang Jia , Zhibing Lu , Wenhua Duan , Yonghui He , Gang Lei , Lizheng Fang , Wenting Li , Yaoxing Wu , Tianxiang Wang , Huimin Tian , Lianghua Qi

Global climate change and intensified human activities drive rapid land use and land cover (LULC) changes, particularly in ecologically fragile regions like China's Southern Hilly Region (SHR), affecting ecosystem services (ESs) trade-offs/synergies. However, scale-dependent thresholds governing these relationships remain poorly quantified. We analyzed ESs dynamics (water yield, soil conservation, carbon storage, nutrient retention, habitat quality) across regional, watershed, and sub-watershed scales (1990–2020) using the InVEST model, sensitivity indices, and piecewise linear regression. ESs responses exhibited significant scale effects, with sub-watersheds showing the highest sensitivity to LULC changes and representing the most stable management unit. Particularly, we found that critical LULC thresholds regulate trade-offs/synergies: forest cover exceeding ∼70 % strongly enhanced synergies among multiple ESs, while cropland proportions between 30 and 65 % intensified trade-offs (e.g., between soil conservation and water yield). Impervious expansion consistently degraded ESs. Our results demonstrate that optimizing LULC patterns-prioritizing forest conservation (>70 % cover), limiting cropland (<65 %), and controlling urban sprawl-at the sub-watershed scale minimizes ESs trade-offs. This study establishes quantitative thresholds to guide targeted land-use planning and ecological restoration policies in hilly regions globally, supporting sustainable landscape governance.

全球气候变化和人类活动加剧推动了土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）的快速变化，特别是在中国南部丘陵地区（SHR）等生态脆弱地区，影响了生态系统服务（ESs）的权衡/协同效应。然而，控制这些关系的依赖于规模的阈值仍然很难量化。利用InVEST模型、敏感性指数和分段线性回归分析了1990-2020年区域、流域和亚流域尺度上的生态环境动态（水量、土壤保持、碳储量、养分保持和生境质量）。生态系统响应表现出显著的尺度效应，其中小流域对LULC变化的敏感性最高，是最稳定的管理单元。特别是，我们发现临界LULC阈值调节着权衡/协同效应：森林覆盖率超过70%强烈增强了多个生态系统之间的协同效应，而农田比例在30%至65%之间则强化了权衡（例如，在水土保持和水量之间）。不透水膨胀持续降低ESs。我们的研究结果表明，在亚流域尺度上优化LULC模式——优先保护森林（70%覆盖率）、限制耕地（65%）和控制城市扩张——可以最大限度地减少碳排放的权衡。本研究建立了定量阈值，可指导全球丘陵区有针对性的土地利用规划和生态恢复政策，支持可持续的景观治理。

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引用次数: 0

Simulating categorical environmental dynamics using a Spatio-Temporal Integrated Geographic Generative Adversarial Network framework 使用时空集成地理生成对抗网络框架模拟分类环境动态

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101133

Abdol Rassoul Zarei

To overcome the limitations of traditional models to simulate discrete environmental variables, this study introduces a novel, integrated simulation framework: the Spatio-Temporal Integrated Geographic Generative Adversarial Network (ST-IGeo-GAN). This model directly processes raw raster data, including the target variable along with dynamic and static auxiliary indices. It learns to simulate the system's future state based on its prior state and spatial drivers. To evaluate the model's performance, the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) in Fars province, Iran, was forecast for the 2025–2030 period under three scenarios: (A) without auxiliary indices, (B) with the one dynamic auxiliary index: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and (C) with both dynamic and static auxiliary indices: NDVI and Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The model was trained using VHI and NDVI imagery from 2003 to 2024. Evaluation results demonstrated that scenario B significantly outperformed scenarios A and C. Furthermore, a direct comparison against a CA-Markov and Conv-LSTM models confirmed the ST-IGeo-GAN's fundamental superiority, as the latter produced forecasts with significantly higher spatial accuracy. This finding suggests that while dynamic drivers are critical for temporal forecasting, the inclusion of less informative static variables can degrade model performance. Additionally, trend analysis for the extended period (2003–2030) under the superior Scenario B projected an emerging tendency towards drier conditions. This highlights a potential shift in the system's variability. The ST-IGeo-GAN framework provides a powerful, data-driven tool for simulating spatiotemporal systems, offering valuable insights for proactive environmental management and risk assessment.

为了克服传统模型在模拟离散环境变量方面的局限性，本研究引入了一种新的集成模拟框架：时空集成地理生成对抗网络（ST-IGeo-GAN）。该模型直接处理原始栅格数据，包括目标变量以及动态和静态辅助指标。它学习基于系统的先前状态和空间驱动来模拟系统的未来状态。为了评价模型的性能，对伊朗法尔斯省2025-2030年植被健康指数（VHI）进行了三种情景下的预测：(A)无辅助指数，(B)有一个动态辅助指数：归一化植被指数（NDVI）， (C)有动态和静态辅助指数：NDVI和数字高程模型（DEM）。该模型使用2003 - 2024年的VHI和NDVI图像进行训练。评估结果表明，情景B显著优于情景A和情景c。此外，与CA-Markov模型和convl - lstm模型的直接比较证实了ST-IGeo-GAN的根本优势，因为后者产生的预测具有更高的空间精度。这一发现表明，虽然动态驱动因素对时间预测至关重要，但包含信息较少的静态变量可能会降低模型的性能。此外，在较优情景B下对较长时期（2003-2030年）的趋势分析预测，气候条件将出现越来越干燥的趋势。这突出了系统可变性的潜在转变。ST-IGeo-GAN框架为模拟时空系统提供了强大的数据驱动工具，为主动环境管理和风险评估提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

A novel watershed viability assessment grounded in global sustainable development goals 基于全球可持续发展目标的流域生存力评估

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101057

Marjan Bahlekeh , Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi

The current study will deal with the problem of natural resource degradation, presenting a new, multifaceted approach to the measurement of watershed health. This idea determines the capacity of a watershed to be structurally and functionally sound within a safe operating interval that has its upper (i.e., resilience) and lower (i.e., release) limits. The method extends beyond the analogous concepts by quantitatively prognosing the nearness of a system to highly sensitive breaking points, by providing a dynamically diagnostic framework and management recommendations. The viability was determined at economic, social, infrastructural, and environmental dimensions. Content Validity Ratio (CVR) and Index (CVI) were used to validate criteria refinement with expert input (n = 40) used to refine criteria. A complex viability index was calculated on these criteria, and interrelationships between them investigated by Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis. The framework was applied to the Shazand Watershed in Iran and determined a moderate-depletion state with a weighted mean index of viability of 41.46 % (±5.74). Spatial zoning map showed central sub-watersheds to be the most vulnerable. A SDGs-based performance evaluation revealed that SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) were the most successful (80.63 % and 62.59 %). On the other hand, the lowest scores were received by SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals) and SDG 15 (Life on Land) (30.71 % and 33.40 %). The conceptualized model and its pilot application demonstrates a critical and transferable instrument for assessing watershed viability that decision-makers should use to develop comprehensive and specific watershed management plans.

目前的研究将处理自然资源退化问题，提出一种新的、多方面的方法来衡量流域健康。这一理念决定了流域在安全运行区间内结构和功能健全的能力，该区间有其上限（即弹性）和下限（即释放）。该方法通过提供动态诊断框架和管理建议，定量预测系统与高度敏感断点的接近程度，从而超越了类似的概念。可行性是在经济、社会、基础设施和环境方面确定的。使用内容效度比（CVR）和指数（CVI）来验证标准的改进，使用专家输入（n = 40）来改进标准。在此基础上计算了复合生存力指数，并通过解释结构模型（ISM）和MICMAC分析研究了它们之间的相互关系。该框架应用于伊朗Shazand流域，确定其处于中度枯竭状态，加权平均生存指数为41.46%（±5.74）。空间分区图显示，中部分流域最脆弱。基于可持续发展目标的绩效评估显示，可持续发展目标13（气候行动）和可持续发展目标3（良好健康和福祉）最为成功（分别为80.63%和62.59%）。另一方面，得分最低的是可持续发展目标17（目标伙伴关系）和可持续发展目标15（陆地上的生命）（30.71%和33.40%）。概念化模型及其试点应用表明，这是评估流域生存能力的关键和可转移工具，决策者应利用它制定全面和具体的流域管理计划。

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引用次数: 0

Future climate change will facilitate the distribution expansion of the rare and endangered Platycrater arguta 未来的气候变化将促进稀有和濒危的白颈月牙分布的扩大

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101128

Lei Feng , Haoyu Wang , Jiahuan Guo , Xule Zhang , Xiaohua Ma , Yaping Hu , Difei Wu , Qingdi Hu , Jian Zheng

Platycrater arguta, an endangered shrub endemic to China subtropical montane forests, plays a key role in regional biodiversity. However, the potential impacts of climate change on its suitable habitat remain unclear. This study employs ensemble modeling to predict the species' distribution under current and future climate scenarios (2050s, 2070s, 2090s) across three SSPs (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). Annual precipitation (BIO12), and UV-B radiation (UVB4) were identified as dominant environmental drivers. Currently, core suitable habitats are concentrated in Zhejiang, Fujian, and Jiangxi, covering approximately 6.72 × 10⁴ km². Predicted expansion peaks under SSP585 (2070s), followed by SSP245 (2090s), SSP585 (2090s) and SSP126 (2070s). Future core distribution areas are expected to shift northwestward toward the Jiangxi-Hunan border, a region with complex topography. We recommend prioritizing this zone for conservation, establishing ecological corridors, and enhancing ex situ conservation under SSP126. To improve predictive accuracy, future work should incorporate finer-scale regional climate data and field monitoring. Notably, this study is the first to quantify P. arguta sensitivity thresholds to precipitation and UVB radiation, offering a reference model for conserving other subtropical endangered plants.

白颈扁桃（Platycrater arguta）是中国亚热带山地特有的濒危灌木，在区域生物多样性中起着关键作用。然而，气候变化对其适宜栖息地的潜在影响尚不清楚。本研究采用整体建模来预测当前和未来气候情景下的物种的分布(2050年代,2070年代,2090年代)在三个SSPs (SSP126, SSP245 SSP585)。年降水量（BIO12）和UV-B辐射（UVB4）是主要的环境驱动因素。目前，核心适宜生境主要集中在浙江、福建和江西，面积约为6.72 × 104 km2。预测扩张高峰在SSP585（2070年代），其次是SSP245（2090年代）、SSP585（2090年代）和SSP126（2070年代）。未来的核心分布区预计将向地形复杂的湘西边界向西北方向转移。我们建议优先保护该地区，建立生态走廊，并根据SSP126加强迁地保护。为了提高预测精度，未来的工作应结合更精细的区域气候数据和野外监测。值得注意的是，本研究首次量化了软叶油松对降水和UVB辐射的敏感性阈值，为其他亚热带濒危植物的保护提供了参考模型。

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引用次数: 0

Predicting sustainability of fish stock using a simple length-based approach: An example of little tunny in the Southeast Atlantic 用简单的基于长度的方法预测鱼类资源的可持续性：以东南大西洋的小金枪鱼为例

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101132

Amidu Mansaray , Richard Kindong , Mustapha Sly Bayon , Komba Jossie Konoyima , Jiangfeng Zhu

The stock status of little tunny (Euthynnus alletteratus) in the Southeast Atlantic remains poorly understood, posing a major challenge for effective fisheries management. This study applies the aggregated Length-Based Indicator (aLBI) framework to conduct a data-limited, length-based assessment, with a specific focus on purse-seine fisheries operating on Fish Aggregating Device (FAD) and free-school (FSC) fishing modes. Length-frequency data from more than 22,000 individuals were used to estimate key life-history parameters and Froese sustainability indicators, including the proportion of mature fish (Pmat), the proportion harvested at optimal length (Popt), and the proportion of mega-spawners (Pmaga). Results indicate that FAD-associated fishery is severely depletion, with a high probability that stock biomass is below the limit spawning biomass reference point (LSB25). In contrast, the FSC fishery appears to be in a substantially better condition exhibiting indicator consistent with a more sustainable exploitation pattern. Sensitivity analysis show that the assessment outcomes are robust to uncertainty in asymptotic length (Linf) but highly sensitive to estimates of length at maturity (Lmat), identifying this parameter as a critical research priority. The study represents the first application of the aLBI framework to assess the stock status of little tunny across the Atlantic Ocean and highlights the utility of length-based methods for informing management in data-limited fisheries. We conclude that urgent, gear-specific management measures are required to ensure stock sustainability, particularly through the regulation of fishing mortality in the FAD associated fishery.

东南大西洋小金枪鱼（Euthynnus alletteratus）的种群状况仍然知之甚少，这对有效的渔业管理构成了重大挑战。本研究采用基于长度的综合指标（aLBI）框架进行数据有限的基于长度的评估，特别关注采用鱼群聚集装置（FAD）和自由鱼群（FSC）捕捞模式的围网渔业。利用来自22,000多条个体的长度-频率数据来估计关键的生活史参数和Froese可持续性指标，包括成熟鱼的比例（Pmat），最佳长度收获比例（Popt）和巨型产卵者的比例（Pmaga）。结果表明，fad相关渔业资源严重枯竭，种群生物量极有可能低于极限产卵生物量参考点（LSB25）。相比之下，FSC渔业的情况似乎要好得多，其指标与更可持续的开发模式相一致。敏感性分析表明，评估结果对渐近长度（Linf）的不确定性具有鲁棒性，但对成熟度长度（Lmat）的估计高度敏感，将该参数确定为关键的研究重点。这项研究是aLBI框架第一次应用于评估横跨大西洋的小金枪鱼种群状况，并突出了基于长度的方法在数据有限的渔业中为管理提供信息的效用。我们的结论是，需要采取紧急的、针对特定渔具的管理措施，以确保种群的可持续性，特别是通过管制与FAD有关的渔业的捕鱼死亡率。

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引用次数: 0

Analysis of rural households’ livelihood vulnerability to natural-hazard risks in the Sile-Sago watershed, Southern Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚南部裂谷盆地Sile-Sago流域农户生计对自然灾害风险的脆弱性分析

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101126

Asnake Boyana , Abiyot Legesse , Abera Uncha , Abren Gelaw

In Ethiopia, natural hazard threats have an adverse effect on many livelihoods. However, the systematic assessment of rural household livelihood vulnerability to the threats is lacking in the Sile-Sago watershed, which the study seeks to address. A survey was conducted with 299 households chosen using systematic random sampling. The Livelihood Vulnerability-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Indexes were utilized, with values ranging (0 (least to1 most vulnerable). The Livelihood Vulnerability Index for each district was developed using 14 essential components. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index for each district was derived from 14 essential components. The findings showed that Arba Minch Zuriya district, the lower parts of the watershed, was highly vulnerable to flood hazard risks, with indices of 0.73, 0.54, and 0.41 for adaptive capacity, exposure, and sensitivity factors, respectively. Geresse district, located in the watershed's highland agro-ecology, was highly vulnerable to landslide hazard risks, with the respective indices of 0.61, 0.60, and 0.55 for adaptive capacity, exposure and sensitivity. The Zuriya final vulnerability index is 0.22. The Geresse district's aggregate livelihood vulnerability index is 0.54. Plan to mitigate the livelihood vulnerability of households in the Geresse and Arba Minch Zuriya districts to landslide and flood hazards and enhance their resilience. The targeted interventions and collaborative plans should be developed, coordinating productive safety nets, food security, and agricultural offices across affected households, kebeles, districts, and local government administrations, and non-governmental organizations.

在埃塞俄比亚，自然灾害威胁对许多人的生计产生不利影响。然而，该研究试图解决的Sile-Sago流域缺乏对农村家庭生计脆弱性的系统评估。采用系统随机抽样的方法，对299户家庭进行了调查。生计脆弱性-政府间气候变化专门委员会指数的取值范围为0（最脆弱）到1（最脆弱）。每个地区的生计脆弱性指数由14个基本组成部分组成。每个地区的生计脆弱性指数由14个基本组成部分得出。结果表明，流域下游Arba Minch Zuriya地区的适应能力指数、暴露指数和敏感性指数分别为0.73、0.54和0.41，是洪水灾害的高危区。Geresse区处于流域高原农业生态，滑坡灾害风险高度脆弱，适应能力指数、暴露度指数和敏感性指数分别为0.61、0.60和0.55。Zuriya最终漏洞指数为0.22。Geresse地区的综合生计脆弱性指数为0.54。制定计划，减轻Geresse和Arba Minch Zuriya地区家庭生计对山体滑坡和洪水灾害的脆弱性，并增强其抵御能力。应制定有针对性的干预措施和协作计划，协调受影响家庭、家庭、地区、地方政府管理部门和非政府组织之间的生产安全网、粮食安全和农业办事处。

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引用次数: 0

Risk analysis of water resources carrying capacity based on a novel early warning framework 基于新型预警框架的水资源承载能力风险分析

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101120

Heyuan Zhou , Xinwei Guo , Suzhen Dang , Chengpeng Lu

Water Resources Carrying Capacity (WRCC) embodies the fundamental constraint relationship between water resource sustainability and regional economic growth as well as social development, serving as a key indicator for assessing regional sustainable development. Existing studies mainly focus on carrying capacity or status assessment, often deriving deterministic results based solely on a single factor. However, as an indicator of sustainability, WRCC is inevitably influenced by uncertainty risks. Therefore, This study develops a novel Water Resources Carrying Capacity Early Warning (WRCCEW) system based on the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response-Management (DPSIRM) framework and applies it to evaluate the status of Henan Province from 2011 to 2023.Using the Geographical Detector (GD) model, this study examined the drivers of WRCCEW during different periods along with their interaction effects, while the Bayesian Network (BN) model was applied to simulate the probability of risk occurrence under diverse scenarios. Findings reveal that in Henan Province, the no warning zones are migrating from the west toward the south, the proportion of extreme warning zones has markedly decreased, whereas the proportion of no warning zones has experienced a modest reduction. Meanwhile, the interactive effects of multiple factors exert a significantly stronger influence on WRCCEW than single-factor effects, with the coupling between total water resources and other factors being the most prominent. In the scenario simulations, the S18 scenario can significantly reduce the occurrence of high-risk situations in Henan Province. This study provides a comprehensive framework for the early risk assessment of regional WRCC, highlighting the importance of incorporating uncertainty and probabilistic risks in sustainability evaluation.

水资源承载力体现了水资源可持续性与区域经济增长和社会发展之间的基本约束关系，是评价区域可持续发展的关键指标。现有的研究主要集中在承载能力或状态评估上，往往仅基于单一因素得出确定性的结果。然而，作为可持续性指标，WRCC不可避免地受到不确定性风险的影响。为此，本研究基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理（DPSIRM）框架构建了水资源承载力预警系统，并将其应用于河南省2011 - 2023年水资源承载力状况评估。利用地理探测器（GD）模型分析了不同时期WRCCEW的驱动因素及其相互作用，并利用贝叶斯网络（BN）模型模拟了不同情景下WRCCEW发生风险的概率。结果表明：河南省无预警区呈现由西向南迁移的趋势，极端预警区比例显著减少，无预警区比例略有减少；同时，多因素的交互效应对WRCCEW的影响显著强于单因素效应，其中水资源总量与其他因素之间的耦合最为突出。在情景模拟中，S18情景可以显著减少河南省高风险情景的发生。本研究为区域WRCC早期风险评估提供了一个综合框架，强调了在可持续性评估中纳入不确定性和概率风险的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating rural futures: Scenario-Based insights into non-agricultural employment in western Iran 导航农村未来：基于场景的伊朗西部非农业就业洞察

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101129

Samaneh Sanjabi, Amirhossein Alibaygi

Rural communities are increasingly challenged by climate change, declining agricultural productivity, and economic vulnerabilities, highlighting the urgent need for livelihood diversification. This study aims to identify, analyze, and forecast the key driving factors shaping the future of rural non-agricultural employment (RNFE) in the Bilavar district, Kermanshah, Iran. Specifically, the research seeks to (1) determine the main socio-economic and environmental variables influencing RNFE, (2) assess their mutual interactions, and (3) develop plausible future scenarios to support rural policy planning. A mixed-methods design was employed, integrating sustainable development and social capital frameworks. Using MICMAC and Scenario Wizard analytical tools, key drivers and interrelationships were explored to construct alternative futures. Results reveal that government support policies (V3), entrepreneurship and innovation (V4), and rural tourism (V13) emerged as the most influential and strategic drivers of RNFE development. Among the scenarios, balanced growth (Scenario 2) is the most likely, reflecting gradual progress under current conditions, while conservative stability and stagnation (Scenarios 3 and 4) are also plausible. The primary objective to develop a foresight-based framework for rural employment diversification underscores the importance of targeted interventions such as local financial initiatives, market-oriented skills training, and tourism infrastructure development to promote economic diversification, reduce youth migration, and enhance livelihood resilience. The study introduces a novel, futures-oriented analytical framework and offers a practical model applicable to similar rural regions in developing countries.

农村社区日益受到气候变化、农业生产力下降和经济脆弱性的挑战，凸显了生计多样化的迫切需要。本研究旨在识别、分析和预测影响伊朗克尔曼沙阿Bilavar地区农村非农业就业未来的关键驱动因素。具体而言，该研究旨在(1)确定影响农村农村经济发展的主要社会经济和环境变量，(2)评估它们之间的相互作用，以及(3)制定合理的未来情景，以支持农村政策规划。采用混合方法设计，整合可持续发展和社会资本框架。利用MICMAC和Scenario Wizard分析工具，探讨了构建替代未来的关键驱动因素和相互关系。研究结果表明，政府扶持政策（V3）、创业创新（V4）和乡村旅游（V13）是东北地区发展最具影响力的战略驱动力。在这些情景中，平衡增长（情景2）是最有可能的，反映了当前条件下的渐进进展，而保守稳定和停滞（情景3和4）也是有可能的。主要目标是为农村就业多样化制定一个以远见为基础的框架，强调有针对性的干预措施的重要性，如地方金融倡议、市场导向的技能培训和旅游基础设施发展，以促进经济多样化，减少青年移民，增强生计抵御能力。该研究引入了一种新颖的、面向未来的分析框架，并提供了一个适用于发展中国家类似农村地区的实用模型。

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引用次数: 0