Environmental and Sustainability Indicators最新文献_第6页

Cultural ecosystem benefits mediate the impact of environmental quality of treetop trails on perceived health benefits 文化生态系统效益在树梢步道环境质量对感知健康效益的影响中起中介作用

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-06 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101122

Wei Zhou , Shaozhen Fan , Yuanjing Wu , Xin Wang , Guangyu Wang , Siren Lan

Understanding how urban forest trail environments contribute to visitors’ health through cultural ecosystem benefits (CEBs) is essential for integrating human well-being into urban forest management. However, empirical evidence remains limited, particularly for treetop trails, which are underrepresented in the literature. This study investigates how environmental quality perception (EQP) influences perceived health benefits (PHBs), with CEBs conceptualized as key mediating variables. A field survey was conducted at the Fu Forest Trail in Fuzhou, Fujian Province, China, yielding 445 valid questionnaires. Structural equation modeling was employed to examine the direct and indirect pathways linking EQP, CEBs, and PHBs. The results show that high-quality treetop trail environments significantly enhance CEBs across the identity, experience, and capability dimensions. Among these, the identity dimension exerted positive effects on both experience and capability. Mediation analyses further revealed that identity and experience played significant parallel mediating roles between EQP and PHBs, whereas the mediating effect of capability was relatively weaker. In addition, a sequential mediation pathway was identified, in which EQP influenced PHBs through an identity-driven experiential process. Overall, the findings highlight the pivotal role of CEBs in translating environmental quality into health outcomes and underscore the importance of prioritizing identity- and experience-oriented benefits in the planning and management of urban treetop trails to better support public health.

了解城市森林步道环境如何通过文化生态系统效益（ceb）促进游客健康，对于将人类福祉纳入城市森林管理至关重要。然而，经验证据仍然有限，特别是对于文献中代表性不足的树顶小径。本研究探讨了环境质量感知（EQP）如何影响感知健康效益（phb），并将ceb定义为关键的中介变量。在中国福建省福州市福林步道进行实地调查，发放有效问卷445份。采用结构方程模型研究EQP、ceb和phb之间的直接和间接通路。结果表明，高质量的树顶步道环境在身份、体验和能力维度上显著提高了ceb。其中，身份维度对经验和能力均有正向影响。进一步的中介分析发现，身份和经验在EQP和phb之间起着显著的平行中介作用，而能力的中介作用相对较弱。此外，我们还发现了EQP通过身份驱动的体验过程影响phb的顺序中介途径。总体而言，研究结果强调了ceb在将环境质量转化为健康结果方面的关键作用，并强调了在城市树顶步道的规划和管理中优先考虑以身份和经验为导向的效益，以更好地支持公共健康的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

A Multi-Sectoral analysis of conflicts and priorities in the economic development and environmental protection of Quang Ninh marine, Vietnam 越南广宁海洋经济发展和环境保护中的冲突和优先事项的多部门分析

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-05 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101121

An Thinh Nguyen , Ngoc Trinh Phuong , Phuong Anh Tran , Duc Man Nguyen , Tuyen Tran Thi , Ngoc Anh Le , Thao Do Thi , Trang Le Huyen

This study investigates public perceptions in Quang Ninh, Vietnam to identify conflicts and establish development priorities for sustainable coastal management. This study designs a decision tree model to analyze intersectoral conflicts and their underlying causes by using descriptive statistics for ranking and the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) to determine priority levels. Results show that, at the local level, major conflicts occur between tourism and marine services versus coastal industrial parks, between aquaculture and exploitation versus marine environmental protection and biodiversity conservation, between industrial expansion and ecosystem preservation, particularly concerning marine biodiversity and environmental quality, and between maritime economic activities versus sustainable development goals. The findings emphasize the urgent need for integrated coastal zone management and coordinated policy responses. Key recommendations include strengthening intersectoral spatial planning, investing in waste management infrastructure in high-pressure areas such as Ha Long and Quang Yen, and promoting eco-tourism in Mong Cai and Hai Ha to foster sustainable economic growth. Encouraging environmentally friendly aquaculture and mangrove restoration in Dam Ha and Tien Yen is essential to enhance both ecological resilience and local livelihoods. Also, community engagement and capacity-building initiatives are very important to ensuring stakeholder participation and effective policy implementation. Aligning environmental protection with economic priorities will enable Quang Ninh to develop a sustainable marine economy, serving as a model for other coastal provinces in Vietnam and for developing countries seeking balanced growth between economic progress and environmental conservation.

本研究调查了越南广宁的公众看法，以确定冲突并建立可持续沿海管理的发展优先事项。本研究设计决策树模型，运用描述性统计进行排序，运用层次分析法（AHP）确定优先级，分析部门间冲突及其原因。结果表明，在地方层面，主要冲突发生在旅游和海洋服务业与沿海工业园区之间、水产养殖和开发与海洋环境保护和生物多样性保护之间、产业扩张与生态系统保护（特别是海洋生物多样性和环境质量）之间、海洋经济活动与可持续发展目标之间。研究结果强调，迫切需要对沿海地区进行综合管理和协调一致的政策反应。主要建议包括加强跨部门空间规划，在高压地区（如下龙和广严）投资废物管理基础设施，以及在孟Cai和haha推广生态旅游，以促进可持续的经济增长。在坝河和天严鼓励环境友好型水产养殖和红树林恢复，对于增强生态恢复力和当地生计至关重要。此外，社区参与和能力建设举措对于确保利益攸关方参与和有效执行政策非常重要。将环境保护与经济优先事项相结合，将使广宁省能够发展可持续的海洋经济，为越南其他沿海省份和寻求经济进步与环境保护之间平衡增长的发展中国家树立榜样。

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引用次数: 0

A comprehensive classification of ecosystem resilience assessment methods: Frameworks, approaches, and models 生态系统恢复力评估方法的综合分类：框架、方法和模型

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101116

Sepehr Ghazinoory , Asieh Bakhtiar , Atiyeh Safardoust

In the face of increasing human pressures on ecosystems, the selection and application of appropriate methods for assessing resilience are vital for effective decision-making and policymaking in both natural and social environments. Methods for evaluating resilience differ in various respects, and the main purpose of this study is to identify and classify different approaches to ecosystem resilience assessment for the purpose of analysis and comparison. To this end, a systematic literature review was conducted, identifying 589 studies, of which 98 articles were selected for analysis after refinement. The systematic analysis revealed that resilience assessment methods are highly diverse, with each method focusing on a particular dimension of resilience. To organize and analyze these methods, a well-established framework was employed, classifying them into three main categories: Frameworks (emphasizing structural and cyclical analysis of ecosystems), Models (using indicators and quantitative data to measure resilience dimensions), and Approaches (offering operational tools to guide managerial responses and rapid decision-making). This classification was subsequently applied to analyze an ecosystem, and the findings showed that understanding the distinctions and applications of each category enables the selection of appropriate tools. Such insights can be practically applied to the analysis, management, and policymaking of diverse ecosystems, contributing to improved policies, the design of operational programs, and the enhancement of ecosystem resilience.

面对日益增加的人类对生态系统的压力，选择和应用适当的复原力评估方法对于在自然和社会环境中进行有效的决策和政策制定至关重要。评估生态系统恢复力的方法各不相同，本研究的主要目的是对不同的生态系统恢复力评估方法进行识别和分类，以便进行分析和比较。为此，我们进行了系统的文献综述，共筛选到589篇研究，并对其中的98篇进行了细化分析。系统分析表明，弹性评估方法具有高度的多样性，每种方法都侧重于弹性的特定维度。为了组织和分析这些方法，采用了一个完善的框架，将它们分为三大类：框架（强调生态系统的结构和周期性分析），模型（使用指标和定量数据来衡量弹性维度）和方法（提供操作工具来指导管理响应和快速决策）。该分类随后被用于分析生态系统，结果表明，了解每个类别的区别和应用有助于选择适当的工具。这些见解可以实际应用于不同生态系统的分析、管理和政策制定，有助于改善政策、设计运营方案和增强生态系统的复原力。

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引用次数: 0

A context-specific index accurately tracks the decadal trajectory of mining impacts and ecological rehabilitation 一个特定环境的指数准确地跟踪了采矿影响和生态恢复的年代际轨迹

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101117

Yumin Yuan , Zhengliang Yu , Zuyao Pan , Jia Guo , Guoqiang Fan , Ziqi Lü , Yunfeng He , Chaosheng Zhang , Ya Tang

The expansion of open-pit mining for rare earth elements (REEs) poses a significant threat to forest ecosystems, demanding advanced remote sensing tools for effective environmental monitoring. While the standard Remote Sensing Ecological Index (RSEI) is a widely used metric, its application in mining-affected forest areas is limited by temporal instability and reduced sensitivity to complex ecological dynamics. To address this, we propose the Forest Ecological Index (FEI). It builds upon the RSEI framework by integrating optimized indicators—the Normalized Difference Fraction Index (NDFI) for greenness and the Desertification Difference Index (DDI) for dryness—specifically chosen to enhance sensitivity in forest ecosystems. FEI was tested against the standard RSEI at an REE deposit using a long-term Landsat time series. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) revealed that FEI's first principal component (PC1) captured an average of 84.1 % of the total ecological variance, outperforming RSEI's 76.3 % and demonstrating greater model stability. FEI exhibited a wider distribution of ecological grades, enhancing its ability to distinguish between severely degraded mining areas (FEI ≈ 0.2) and healthy forests (FEI ≈ 0.8), whereas RSEI showed compressed differentiation (mining ≈ 0.3, forest ≈ 0.7). Spatiotemporal trend analyses confirmed that FEI successfully tracked better landscape's known historical trajectory of degradation and subsequent rehabilitation than RSEI. Our findings establish that context-specific monitoring tools are not merely an improvement but a necessity for reliable environmental management. We present FEI as a validated, operational tool that provides nuanced and accurate data required to guide effective mine rehabilitation and promote sustainable resource futures.

稀土露天开采的扩大对森林生态系统构成了重大威胁，需要先进的遥感工具进行有效的环境监测。虽然标准遥感生态指数（RSEI）是一种广泛使用的度量，但其在受采矿影响的森林地区的应用受到时间不稳定性和对复杂生态动态敏感性降低的限制。为了解决这个问题，我们提出了森林生态指数（FEI）。它建立在RSEI框架的基础上，通过整合优化的指标——绿化率的归一化差异分数指数（NDFI）和干旱性的荒漠化差异指数（DDI）——专门选择来提高森林生态系统的敏感性。利用长期Landsat时间序列对稀土矿床的标准RSEI进行了FEI测试。主成分分析（PCA）表明，FEI的第一主成分（PC1）平均捕获了总生态方差的84.1%，优于RSEI的76.3%，显示出更大的模型稳定性。FEI表现出较宽的生态等级分布，增强了对严重退化矿区（FEI≈0.2）和健康森林（FEI≈0.8）的区分能力，而RSEI表现出压缩分化（采矿≈0.3，森林≈0.7）。时空趋势分析证实，FEI比RSEI更成功地跟踪了已知景观退化和随后恢复的历史轨迹。我们的研究结果表明，特定环境的监测工具不仅是一种改进，而且是可靠的环境管理的必要条件。我们将FEI作为一种经过验证的可操作工具，提供了指导有效矿山恢复和促进可持续资源未来所需的细致而准确的数据。

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引用次数: 0

Strategic climate adaptation economics: A game model on resilience to droughts and floods 战略气候适应经济学：对干旱和洪水恢复力的博弈模型

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101118

John Asprilla-Echeverria

Municipalities that have faced recurring droughts and floods for more than 50 years function as living laboratories of resilience, offering a preview of broader climate challenges ahead. This study examines how semi-urban populations coordinate and sustain resilience amid such hydroclimatic extremes. A game-theoretical framework captures the interplay between cooperation and Nature-Based Solutions (NbS) in fostering adaptation within a middle-income setting like Colombia. Based on 70 interviews and mixed-method evidence, the model portrays farmers as players navigating recurrent hydrological states—drought, flood, and moderate—choosing adaptive actions such as investing in drought-tolerant crops, selling livestock during floods, and contributing to a shared NbS capital

K_{t}

. Payoffs weigh private adaptive returns against collective efforts, with social capital shaping the enforcement of cooperation. Equilibrium outcomes indicate that stable cooperation emerges when the discounted long-term benefits of NbS accumulation exceed the immediate incentives to defect, revealing how NbS can internalize climate externalities and anchor adaptive behavior under limited resources. A five-type resilience classification emerges: (i) weak resilient, (ii) resilient by escape, (iii) strong resilient, (iv) externally supported resilient, and (v) diversifier/experimenter. Simulation results indicate that increasing incentives for cooperation enhances sustainability; with a discount factor of 0.65 or higher, cooperation becomes optimal. Maintaining strong social ties and avoiding conflicts also enhance recovery capacity. Farmers and fishers have developed traditional NbS—such as wetland restoration and Common-Pool Resources assets maintenance—as key resilience mechanisms. Their commitment to remain in their territories underscores the importance of NbS for securing livelihoods and sustaining local adaptation. Programs aimed at addressing resilience building should be tailored to the resilience types identified locally.

50多年来不断遭受干旱和洪水侵袭的城市充当了复原力的活实验室，为未来更广泛的气候挑战提供了预览。本研究考察了半城市人口如何在这种极端水文气候中协调和维持复原力。博弈论框架捕捉了合作与基于自然的解决方案（NbS）之间的相互作用，以促进哥伦比亚等中等收入国家的适应。基于70个访谈和混合方法证据，该模型将农民描绘成反复出现的水文状态（干旱、洪水和温和）的参与者，他们选择适应性行动，如投资耐旱作物，在洪水期间出售牲畜，并为共享的国家统计局资本Kt做出贡献。回报权衡了个人的适应性回报和集体努力，社会资本决定了合作的执行。均衡结果表明，当国家统计局积累的贴现长期利益超过直接的背叛激励时，稳定的合作就会出现，这揭示了国家统计局如何在有限资源下内化气候外部性并锚定适应性行为。出现了五种类型的弹性分类：(i)弱弹性，（ii）逃避弹性，（iii）强弹性，（iv）外部支持弹性和(v)多样化者/实验者。仿真结果表明，增加合作激励可以提高可持续性；当折现系数大于等于0.65时，合作是最优的。保持牢固的社会关系和避免冲突也能提高恢复能力。农民和渔民已经将传统的nbs（如湿地恢复和公共池资源资产维护）作为关键的恢复机制。他们承诺留在自己的领土上，这凸显了国家移民对于确保生计和维持当地适应的重要性。旨在解决恢复力建设的方案应根据当地确定的恢复力类型进行调整。

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引用次数: 0

Driving environmental sustainability: The effects of sustainable supply chain management, fossil fuel consumption, and trade openness 推动环境可持续性：可持续供应链管理、化石燃料消耗和贸易开放的影响

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101112

Wang Xiaoying , Hassan Hazrat , Agyemang Kwasi Sampene , Lei Xu

The escalating apprehensions surrounding climate change have intensified the urgency for effective measures to curb carbon emissions. This study addresses this problem by exploring the dynamic impact of Sustainable Supply Chain Management (SSCM), Fossil Fuel Consumption (FFC), Trade Openness (TOP), and the Digital Economy (DGE) on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions in Latin American countries. Using panel data from 2000 to 2020 and applying the Method of Moments Quantile Regression (MMQR), the study investigates how these determinants influence CO₂ emissions across different emission quantiles. The empirical results reveal that a 1 % increase in SSCM adoption reduces CO₂ emissions by 0.618 %. In comparison, a 1 % expansion of the digital economy reduces emissions by 0.575 %, highlighting the environmental benefits of sustainable logistics and digital innovation. In contrast, a 1 % rise in FFC leads to a 0.849 % increase in CO₂ emissions, and a 1 % rise in trade openness contributes to a 0.489 % rise in emissions. These findings are consistent across quantile levels and are robust to estimations using CCE-MG and AMG models. Moreover, causality tests reveal a unidirectional causal flow from SSCM, FFC, DGE, and TOP to CO₂ emissions, underlining the significance of these variables in shaping environmental outcomes. The study presents a significant contribution by quantifying the heterogeneous effects of emerging digital and trade dynamics on environmental sustainability in Latin America. The study further provides significant policy recommendations, emphasizing the need to promote green digital innovations and sustainable supply chain practices while reforming fossil fuel and trade policies to achieve long-term climate goals.

对气候变化的担忧不断升级，使得采取有效措施遏制碳排放的紧迫性进一步增强。本研究通过探讨可持续供应链管理（SSCM）、化石燃料消耗（FFC）、贸易开放（TOP）和数字经济（DGE）对拉美国家二氧化碳（CO2）排放的动态影响来解决这一问题。利用2000年至2020年的面板数据，并应用矩分位数回归方法（MMQR），研究了这些决定因素如何影响不同排放分位数的二氧化碳排放。实证结果表明，SSCM的采用每增加1%，二氧化碳排放量就会减少0.618%。相比之下，数字经济每增长1%，排放量就会减少0.575%，凸显了可持续物流和数字创新的环境效益。相比之下，FFC增加1%导致二氧化碳排放量增加0.849%，贸易开放度增加1%导致排放量增加0.489 %。这些发现在分位数水平上是一致的，并且对于使用CCE-MG和AMG模型的估计是稳健的。此外，因果关系检验揭示了从SSCM、FFC、DGE和TOP到CO2排放的单向因果关系，强调了这些变量在形成环境结果中的重要性。该研究通过量化新兴数字和贸易动态对拉丁美洲环境可持续性的异质性影响，做出了重大贡献。该研究还提出了重要的政策建议，强调需要促进绿色数字创新和可持续供应链实践，同时改革化石燃料和贸易政策，以实现长期气候目标。

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引用次数: 0

Development of multi-hazard flood risk information system for coastal region: A consolidated end-to-end web platform for efficient flood management 沿海地区多灾种洪水风险信息系统的开发：高效洪水管理的整合端到端网络平台

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-02 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101115

Dev Anand Thakur , Arnav Sharma , Mohit Prakash Mohanty

Effective flood risk management is often hindered due to inadequate dissemination of flood-related information to the end-users, including vulnerable communities as well. To close this gap, global disaster groups recommend establishing efficient information channels to achieve the status of secure, resilient, and sustainable cities stipulated in UN SDGs 11 and 13. This study, for the first time, develops an information-rich web-based flood risk information system, ‘MANAGE’, for Jagatsinghpur, a highly sensitive multi-hazard coastal catchment in India. In contrast to earlier flood information systems that predominantly emphasize hazard mapping or short-term forecasting and therefore offer limited insight into local vulnerability patterns, MANAGE advances the field by providing an integrated, village-scale framework that consolidates hazard, vulnerability, and risk within a single operational platform. The comprehensive repository of flood hazards, physical and socio-economic vulnerabilities, and bivariate flood risks at the finest administrative scale is derived through a cascade of high-resolution flood modeling, Multi-Criteria Decision-Making tools, and statistical techniques. Our results show that flood risk is primarily influenced by vulnerability in evaluations encompassing both physical (69.86 %) and composite indicators (a combination of physical and socio-economic) (51.6 %). Conversely, when only socio-economic indicators (39.66 %) are accounted for, hazard and vulnerability jointly dominate. The intricate architecture of MANAGE, with enhanced user-friendliness, along with smartphone compatibility and multilingual choices, ensures easy access to all end-users. This feature of MANAGE is invaluable in ensuring that crucial flood risk information is widely understood, promoting greater community engagement and supporting more effective disaster preparedness and response.

有效的洪水风险管理往往因向最终用户（包括脆弱社区）传播与洪水有关的信息不足而受到阻碍。为了缩小这一差距，全球灾害组织建议建立有效的信息渠道，以实现联合国可持续发展目标11和13所规定的安全、有弹性和可持续的城市地位。本研究首次为印度一个高度敏感的多灾害沿海集水区Jagatsinghpur开发了一个信息丰富的基于网络的洪水风险信息系统“MANAGE”。早期的洪水信息系统主要强调灾害制图或短期预报，因此对当地脆弱性模式的了解有限，与之相反，MANAGE通过提供一个综合的村庄规模框架，将灾害、脆弱性和风险整合到一个单一的操作平台中，从而推动了这一领域的发展。通过一系列高分辨率洪水建模、多标准决策工具和统计技术，可以得出最精细行政规模的洪水灾害、物理和社会经济脆弱性以及二元洪水风险的综合知识库。研究结果表明，在包括物理指标（69.86%）和综合指标（物理和社会经济的结合）（51.6%）的评价中，脆弱性主要受洪水风险的影响。相反，当只考虑社会经济指标（39.66%）时，风险和脆弱性共同占主导地位。MANAGE的复杂架构，增强了用户友好性，以及智能手机兼容性和多语言选择，确保所有最终用户都能轻松访问。MANAGE的这一功能在确保广泛了解关键的洪水风险信息、促进更大的社区参与和支持更有效的备灾和救灾方面是非常宝贵的。

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引用次数: 0

Impacts of salinity intrusion on livelihood assets: Evidence from the southern regions of Bangladesh 盐度入侵对生计资产的影响：来自孟加拉国南部地区的证据

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2025-12-31 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101113

Masudul alam , Mokbul Morshed Ahmad , Takuji W. Tsusaka , Malay Pramanik

Despite growing concern over climatic stressors, empirical evidence remains limited on how salinity intrusion affects household livelihoods such as income sources, natural resources, and adaptive capacities in developing countries. This study investigates the impacts of salinity intrusion on household income and access to various resources across the three coastal sub-districts of Bangladesh: Kalapara (high salinity), Patharghata (high salinity), and Taltali (moderate salinity). Data from 400 households are analyzed using regression techniques to assess variations in income and asset access across salinity zones. Results show that compared to Taltali, households in Kalapara experience significantly higher agricultural and non-agricultural income by 37 % and 21 %, respectively, while those in Patharghata face the two types of income being lower by 17 % and 11 %. Access to information enhances income by 7.3 %, underscoring its role in economic resilience. Gender disparities persist in income generation, resource access, and community participation. Education supports adaptive farming and livelihood diversification, while older population face heightened vulnerability due to limited freshwater access. Marginal effects show that high salinity reduces the likelihood of access to open water bodies and forest resources by 10.2 and 72.0 % points, respectively. The results highlight regional disparities in salinity stress and access to resources. These findings imply a need for region-specific policies. High-salinity zones should prioritize non-agricultural income generation, expanding access to localized climate information, and implementing education programs on adaptive farming and freshwater management.

尽管对气候压力源的关注日益增加，但关于盐度入侵如何影响发展中国家家庭生计（如收入来源、自然资源和适应能力）的经验证据仍然有限。本研究调查了盐度入侵对孟加拉国三个沿海分区（Kalapara（高盐度）、Patharghata（高盐度）和Taltali（中等盐度））家庭收入和各种资源获取的影响。使用回归技术分析了400户家庭的数据，以评估不同盐度区域的收入和资产获取情况。结果显示，与Taltali相比，Kalapara的家庭农业和非农业收入分别显著增加了37%和21%，而Patharghata的家庭两种收入分别减少了17%和11%。信息获取使收入增加7.3%，凸显了信息获取在经济韧性中的作用。在创收、资源获取和社区参与方面，性别差异依然存在。教育支持适应性农业和生计多样化，而老年人口由于淡水资源有限而面临更大的脆弱性。边际效应表明，高盐度使获得开放水体和森林资源的可能性分别降低了10.2%和72.0%。结果突出了盐度胁迫和资源获取的区域差异。这些调查结果表明，有必要制定针对特定区域的政策。高盐度地区应优先考虑非农业创收，扩大获取当地气候信息的渠道，并实施适应性农业和淡水管理教育计划。

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引用次数: 0

Impacts of land use change and climate-forcing scenarios on carbon storage dynamics in the Farallones de Cali national natural park 土地利用变化和气候强迫情景对Farallones de Cali国家自然公园碳储量动态的影响

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101108

Nicoll Moyano, Fredy Duque, Karel Sanchez

Forest ecosystems are critical carbon sinks, yet land-use pressure and climate change increasingly threaten their long-term stability. This study aimed to evaluate how land-use trajectories and climate-forcing pathways jointly shape future carbon storage and sequestration dynamics in the Farallones de Cali National Natural Park (FCNNP), Colombia. Using an integrated PLUS–InVEST modeling framework, we identified road accessibility, population density, agricultural expansion, and mining activities as the main drivers of land-use change between 2000 and 2023, and then simulated two contrasting management pathways, Productive Expansion (PES) and Ecological Protection (EPS), combined with climate scenarios SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 for 2070 and 2100. Results show that forest cover declined by 3.3 % over the past two decades, leading to a loss of 2.1 Mt C. Model validation demonstrated high accuracy (Kappa = 0.96; FoM = 0.91). Future projections reveal that PES would intensify carbon losses (up to −15 t C ha⁻¹ by 2100), while EPS could reverse this trend and yield net gains of up to +4 t C ha⁻¹. Carbon stocks also declined systematically along the climate gradient from SSP245 to SSP585, emphasizing the combined influence of land-use governance and radiative forcing. These findings demonstrate that integrated conservation and restoration strategies can effectively safeguard the park's carbon-sink function, but their success will depend on both local land-use regulation and broader mitigation efforts. The study provides a decision-ready framework for park managers and policymakers and offers an innovative multi-scenario assessment applicable to other tropical mountain protected areas.

森林生态系统是重要的碳汇，但土地利用压力和气候变化日益威胁其长期稳定性。本研究旨在评估哥伦比亚Farallones de Cali国家自然公园（FCNNP）土地利用轨迹和气候强迫路径如何共同影响未来碳储存和固存动态。利用综合PLUS-InVEST模型框架，研究了2000 - 2023年道路可达性、人口密度、农业扩张和采矿活动是土地利用变化的主要驱动因素，并结合2070年和2100年SSP245、SSP370和SSP585气候情景，模拟了两种截然不同的管理路径：生产扩张（PES）和生态保护（EPS）。结果表明，在过去20年中，森林覆盖面积减少了3.3%，导致210 Mt c的损失。模型验证具有较高的准确性（Kappa = 0.96; FoM = 0.91）。未来的预测表明，PES将加剧碳损失（到2100年高达- 15 t C / ha - 1），而EPS可能扭转这一趋势，并产生高达+4 t C / ha - 1的净收益。从SSP245到SSP585，碳储量沿气候梯度呈系统下降趋势，强调了土地利用治理和辐射强迫的综合影响。这些发现表明，综合保护和恢复策略可以有效地保护公园的碳汇功能，但它们的成功将取决于当地的土地使用监管和更广泛的缓解努力。该研究为公园管理者和政策制定者提供了一个决策准备框架，并提供了一种适用于其他热带山地保护区的创新多情景评估。

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引用次数: 0

Design flows and security tradeoffs in the lower Mekong basin 湄公河下游流域的设计流程和安全权衡

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101092

Joseph Holway, Qi Deng, John Sabo

Lotic environments support the food security of hundreds of millions globally, yet tradeoffs among freshwater-dependent food systems remain poorly understood. In the Lower Mekong Basin, where rice and fish production systems are highly heterogeneous, we modeled harvest outcomes using multivariate autoregressive state-space (MARSS) models and flood magnitude as a key driver, measured by the High Seasonal Amplitude Metric (HSAM). High HSAM values (0.5) positively affected floodplain (FP) fish catch and Ca' Mau rice harvests, while moderate val-ues (0.1) had negative effects. In contrast, Dai fish catch and Cambodian rice harvest responded positively to moderate HSAM values but negatively to high values. Based on these patterns, we engineered four flow regimes optimized for each system. Forecasts over 10 years showed that each engineered hydrograph increased harvest for its target system. Some tradeoffs emerged: the FP hydrograph boosted FP fish catch and Ca' Mau rice but reduced Dai fish and Cambodian rice; the Cambodian rice hydrograph showed the reverse. Alternating between high and mod-erate HSAM values mitigated risk to individual systems, improving FP fish catch while having mixed or neutral effects elsewhere. Setting HSAM at 0.19 stabilized production across all four systems, balancing tradeoffs and maintaining current yields. These results highlight the potential to deliberately manage hydrologic regimes to co-optimize food production systems. Expanding hydrologic objectives beyond power generation is essential for sustaining ecosystem services, maintaining regional food security, and staying within planetary boundaries.

海洋环境支持着全球数亿人的粮食安全，但人们对依赖淡水的粮食系统之间的权衡仍然知之甚少。在水稻和鱼类生产系统高度异质性的湄公河下游流域，我们使用多元自回归状态空间（MARSS）模型对收获结果进行建模，并通过高季节振幅度量（HSAM）测量洪水强度作为关键驱动因素。高HSAM值（0.5）对河漫滩鱼类捕捞和茅稻收成有积极影响，中等HSAM值（0.1）有消极影响。傣族鱼类捕捞量和柬埔寨水稻收获量对中等HSAM值的响应为正，对高HSAM值的响应为负。基于这些模式，我们为每个系统设计了四种优化的流动模式。过去10年的预测表明，每个工程水文线都增加了其目标系统的收成。出现了一些权衡：计划生育水线增加了计划生育鱼类的捕获量和金毛稻的捕获量，但减少了傣族鱼和柬埔寨稻的捕获量；柬埔寨稻米的水文曲线显示了相反的情况。在高和中等HSAM值之间交替，减轻了个别系统的风险，提高了FP渔获量，同时在其他地方产生混合或中性影响。将HSAM设置为0.19稳定了所有四个系统的产量，平衡了权衡并保持了当前的产量。这些结果突出了有意管理水文制度以共同优化粮食生产系统的潜力。将水文目标扩大到发电之外，对于维持生态系统服务、维持区域粮食安全以及保持在地球边界内至关重要。

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引用次数: 0