Environmental and Sustainability Indicators最新文献_第4页

Spatial differences in vegetation damage under typhoon hazards: A case study of a coastal urban district 台风灾害下植被破坏的空间差异——以滨海城区为例

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101143

Xinyue Zhang , Lingyi Cao , Fan Yang , Guangyu Wang , Huikeng Lai , Rongxiao He

Coastal urban ecosystems are becoming increasingly vulnerable to climate-induced disturbance and damage due to the escalating frequency and intensity of typhoons. This study employed an integrated approach of remote sensing analysis and ground-based surveys to systematically assess the damage patterns and spatial heterogeneity of urban vegetation in the Jiangdong New District (Haikou, China) following super typhoon events. The results indicate that tree community diversity, measured by the Shannon index, was significantly and positively correlated with vegetation damage severity (p < 0.001, r = 0.496). Green space patch characteristics were positively associated with the extent of storm damage. In contrast, building height and landscape aggregation index showed negative correlations with damage severity. Approximately 56.4 % of the vegetated areas exhibited a declining trend in the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Human activity intensity and the magnitude of vegetation decrease were significantly positively correlated in northeastern wetlands and negatively correlated in the southeastern tree nurseries. Relying solely on wind-resistant tree species is insufficient to develop a resilient ecosystem. Instead, heterogeneity in community structure and urban spatial layout are critical in increasing tree resistance to wind disturbances. These findings emphasize the need to consider landscape characteristics and human activity patterns along urban environmental when developing adaptation strategies for coastal cities to improve the resilience of urban green infrastructure to extreme climate events.

由于台风的频率和强度不断上升，沿海城市生态系统越来越容易受到气候引起的干扰和破坏。采用遥感分析与地面调查相结合的方法，系统评价了海口市江东新区超强台风过后城市植被的破坏格局和空间异质性。结果表明，以Shannon指数衡量的树木群落多样性与植被破坏程度呈显著正相关（p < 0.001, r = 0.496）。绿地斑块特征与风暴破坏程度呈正相关。建筑高度和景观聚集指数与破坏程度呈负相关。归一化植被指数（NDVI）呈下降趋势的植被面积约占56.4%。人类活动强度与植被减少幅度在东北湿地呈显著正相关，在东南部乔木苗圃呈显著负相关。仅仅依靠抗风树种不足以发展一个有弹性的生态系统。相反，群落结构和城市空间布局的异质性对于增强树木对风干扰的抵抗力至关重要。这些发现强调，在制定沿海城市适应战略时，需要考虑景观特征和城市环境中的人类活动模式，以提高城市绿色基础设施对极端气候事件的抵御能力。

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引用次数: 0

Optimizing crop diversity across multiple spatial scales 优化多空间尺度作物多样性

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101137

T.P.M. van Loon, A. Kanellopoulos, S. de Leeuw

Increasing crop diversity in agricultural landscapes can increase biodiversity but it is unclear how different diversification strategies affect crop diversity across spatial scales. Here we compared different diversification strategies for farmers along three dimensions of diversity: temporal, genetic, and spatial. We developed a framework that optimizes crop diversity for different spatial scales and applied it to a case study of 58 arable farms with 544 fields in the municipality of Lelystad, Netherlands. We showed that the scale at which crop diversity is assessed determines what the optimal crop diversification strategy is. At lower spatial scales, strategies that increase crop diversity along the spatial dimension increased crop diversity most. In contrast, at higher spatial scales, strategies that increase crop diversity along the temporal and genetic dimensions increased crop diversity most. These differences led to trade-offs between the optimal level of crop diversity at different spatial scales. With our modelling framework we can provide guidelines to efficiently allocate activities that aim to increase crop diversity across multiple spatial scales.

在农业景观中增加作物多样性可以增加生物多样性，但不同的多样化策略如何在空间尺度上影响作物多样性尚不清楚。本文从时间、遗传和空间三个维度比较了农民的多样化策略。我们开发了一个框架来优化不同空间尺度的作物多样性，并将其应用于荷兰莱利斯塔德市58个耕地的544块田地的案例研究。我们表明，评估作物多样性的规模决定了最优的作物多样化策略是什么。在较低的空间尺度上，沿空间维度增加作物多样性的策略对作物多样性的增加作用最大。相反，在更高的空间尺度上，沿时间和遗传维度增加作物多样性的策略增加作物多样性最多。这些差异导致了不同空间尺度上作物多样性最优水平之间的权衡。通过我们的建模框架，我们可以提供指导方针，以有效地分配旨在增加多个空间尺度上作物多样性的活动。

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引用次数: 0

Cultural tourism as a driver for sustainable urban development in Hail City, Saudi Arabia 文化旅游作为沙特阿拉伯海尔城可持续城市发展的驱动力

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101135

Mohammed Mashary Alnaim

This study explores the potential of cultural tourism as a strategic driver for sustainable urban development in Hail City, Saudi Arabia, emphasizing its alignment with the objectives of Saudi Vision (2030). Situated at the intersection of heritage preservation, community participation, and environmental sustainability, the research investigates how Hail's rich cultural assets, ranging from the UNESCO-listed Jubbah Rock Art to its traditional urban fabric and crafts, can be transformed into engines of socio-economic growth. A qualitative-dominant mixed-methods approach was adopted, integrating document analysis, stakeholder interviews, field surveys, and comparative case studies from Fez, Kyoto, and Bath. Findings indicate that despite possessing significant cultural value, Hail's tourism potential remains underdeveloped due to infrastructural limitations and institutional fragmentation. Nevertheless, strong local identity, community enthusiasm, and ecological endowments provide a promising basis for sustainable transformation. The study proposes a comprehensive cultural tourism strategy structured around three interrelated pillars: infrastructure improvement, heritage preservation and programming, and community empowerment with environmental integration. The research contributes to global discourse on heritage-led urbanism by demonstrating how mid-sized cities in developing contexts can achieve balanced modernization, enhance quality of life, and preserve cultural authenticity through a locally adapted sustainability model.

本研究探讨了文化旅游作为沙特阿拉伯哈伊尔市可持续城市发展战略驱动力的潜力，强调了其与沙特愿景（2030）目标的一致性。位于遗产保护、社区参与和环境可持续性的交叉点，该研究调查了海尔丰富的文化资产，从联合国教科文组织列入的Jubbah岩石艺术到传统的城市结构和手工艺，如何转化为社会经济增长的引擎。采用了定性为主的混合方法，整合了文件分析、利益相关者访谈、实地调查和来自非斯、京都和巴斯的比较案例研究。研究结果表明，尽管具有重要的文化价值，但由于基础设施的限制和制度的碎片化，Hail的旅游潜力仍然不充分。然而，强烈的地方认同、社区热情和生态禀赋为可持续转型提供了有希望的基础。该研究提出了一个全面的文化旅游战略，该战略围绕三个相互关联的支柱：基础设施改善、遗产保护和规划、社区赋权与环境整合。该研究通过展示发展中的中等城市如何通过适应当地的可持续发展模式实现平衡的现代化、提高生活质量和保护文化真实性，为遗产主导的城市主义的全球话语做出了贡献。

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引用次数: 0

Ecological lens on prioritizing water security at sub-watershed level using Pressure-State-Response model and Ordinal Priority 基于压力-状态-响应模型和顺序优先级的亚流域水安全生态视角

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101139

Mohammad Tavosi , Mehdi Vafakhah , Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi , Sayed M. Bateni

Amid growing water crises, climate change, and intensified human activities, there is an urgent need to assess water conditions from an ecological perspective. This study evaluated Water Security with an Ecological Lens (WSEL) in the Gorganrud watershed using advanced models at a semi-distributed scale. The Gorganrud watershed is a strategic watershed in northeastern Iran facing critical challenges like drought, water scarcity, floods, and sedimentation. After conceptualizing and quantifying WSEL criteria and testing their collinearity through the Variance Inflation Factor (VIF) method, two approaches the Pressure-State-Response (PSR) model and the Ordinal Prioritization Approach (OPA) were employed and compared. The results of the study showed that the WSEL status was unevenly distributed among the sub-watersheds; some areas were in a critical state and required special management, while others showed successful performance despite the pressures to improve the status. Therefore, the adoption of smart management strategies, such as regulating water consumption in agriculture and implementing innovative cultivation techniques, could further enhance water security. The PSR model, aligning closely with field data, estimated the watershed's average WSEL at 0.42, while the OPA model indicated a more critical status with a mean of 0.3. The difference stemmed from the PSR model's integrated analysis of pressure, state, and response factors. Both models identified sub-watershed 6, located in the eastern part of the watershed, as low security (WSEL less than 0.05) and in need of immediate intervention. Overall, the integrated analytical approach provided an effective tool for sustainable water resource management at local and regional levels.

在日益严重的水危机、气候变化和人类活动加剧的背景下，迫切需要从生态学的角度对水状况进行评估。本研究采用先进的半分布模型，利用生态透镜（WSEL）对高甘鲁河流域的水安全进行了评价。戈尔干鲁德流域是伊朗东北部的一个战略流域，面临干旱、缺水、洪水和沉积等严峻挑战。在概念化和量化WSEL标准并通过方差膨胀因子（VIF）方法检验其共线性之后，采用压力-状态-响应（PSR）模型和顺序优先化方法（OPA）两种方法进行了比较。研究结果表明：流域间WSEL状态分布不均匀；有些领域处于危急状态，需要特别管理，而另一些领域尽管面临改善状况的压力，但表现良好。因此，采用智能管理策略，如规范农业用水和实施创新栽培技术，可以进一步增强水安全。PSR模型与现场数据密切相关，估计该流域的平均WSEL为0.42，而OPA模型表明，该流域的平均WSEL为0.3，处于更为关键的状态。这种差异源于PSR模型对压力、状态和响应因素的综合分析。两个模型均认为位于流域东部的6子流域安全系数较低（WSEL < 0.05），需要立即采取干预措施。总的来说，综合分析方法为地方和区域一级的可持续水资源管理提供了一个有效的工具。

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引用次数: 0

Bedrock geochemical baseline and pre-mining risk assessment of heavy metals in a potential lithium deposit in Sonora, Mexico: Implications for sustainable resource management 墨西哥索诺拉潜在锂矿床中重金属基岩地球化学基线和开采前风险评估：对可持续资源管理的影响

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101138

Xochitl Virginia Bello-Yañez , María-Concepción Martínez-Rodríguez , S.B. Sujitha , L.E. Campos-Villegas , Diego Domínguez-Solís , Héctor Guadalupe Ramírez-Escamilla , Ana Laura Cervantes-Najera , M.P. Jonathan

The clay-hosted lithium deposit in Sonora, Mexico, represents a potential mining site for this critical mineral, which is essential for clean energy technologies and currently in high demand during the energy transition. Establishing geochemical baselines is crucial for anticipating potential environmental risks before mining and for supporting a fair and sustainable energy transition. The objective was to report lithium (Li) concentrations and establish a geochemical baseline under pre-mining conditions by analyzing spatial distribution, statistical variability, and background comparisons, and to evaluate the degree of pollution and potential environmental risks, laying a foundation for incorporating sustainable policies. Therefore, 15 samples were collected from the bedrock of the Li deposit in Sonora, Mexico, to determine the concentrations of Li and other toxic heavy metals (Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn, As, and Pb). Results revealed Li concentrations ranging from 301 to 5890 ppm, and multivariate analysis showed significant geochemical associations. The calculated environmental indices (

I_{geo}

, CF,

C_{\deg}

, PLI,

{PIN}_{emerow}

, Er, and RI) showed that most elements presented low contamination and ecological risk, with only localized moderate enrichment for Ni, Cu, and Zn. In contrast, arsenic showed extreme variability and posed a potential environmental risk. Thus, this study provides evidence that bridges geoscientific analysis with sustainability policy in mining, the first link of the supply chain, strengthening the foundations for responsible Li governance in emerging clay-hosted deposits and contributing to sustainable production and consumption.

墨西哥索诺拉的粘土锂矿床代表了这种关键矿物的潜在开采地点，这种矿物对清洁能源技术至关重要，目前在能源转型期间需求量很大。建立地球化学基线对于在采矿前预测潜在的环境风险以及支持公平和可持续的能源转型至关重要。目的是通过分析空间分布、统计变异性和背景比较，报告开采前条件下锂（Li）浓度，建立地球化学基线，评估污染程度和潜在环境风险，为制定可持续政策奠定基础。因此，从墨西哥索诺拉的Li矿床基岩中采集了15个样品，测定了Li和其他有毒重金属（Cr, Co, Ni, Cu, Zn， As和Pb）的浓度。结果表明，土壤中Li浓度变化范围为301 ~ 5890 ppm，多变量分析结果表明，土壤中Li浓度与土壤的地球化学关系显著。计算的环境指数（Igeo、CF、Cdeg、PLI、PINemerow、Er和RI）显示，大多数元素的污染程度和生态风险较低，只有Ni、Cu和Zn局部富集。相比之下，砷表现出极端的可变性，并构成潜在的环境风险。因此，本研究提供了证据，将地球科学分析与矿业可持续性政策（供应链的第一个环节）联系起来，加强了新兴粘土矿床负责任的锂治理基础，并有助于可持续生产和消费。

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引用次数: 0

Thresholds of ecosystem service trade-offs and synergies at different spatio-temporal scales in hilly region of Southern China 华南丘陵区不同时空尺度生态系统服务权衡与协同阈值

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101131

Zhiying Tang , Yihang Jia , Zhibing Lu , Wenhua Duan , Yonghui He , Gang Lei , Lizheng Fang , Wenting Li , Yaoxing Wu , Tianxiang Wang , Huimin Tian , Lianghua Qi

Global climate change and intensified human activities drive rapid land use and land cover (LULC) changes, particularly in ecologically fragile regions like China's Southern Hilly Region (SHR), affecting ecosystem services (ESs) trade-offs/synergies. However, scale-dependent thresholds governing these relationships remain poorly quantified. We analyzed ESs dynamics (water yield, soil conservation, carbon storage, nutrient retention, habitat quality) across regional, watershed, and sub-watershed scales (1990–2020) using the InVEST model, sensitivity indices, and piecewise linear regression. ESs responses exhibited significant scale effects, with sub-watersheds showing the highest sensitivity to LULC changes and representing the most stable management unit. Particularly, we found that critical LULC thresholds regulate trade-offs/synergies: forest cover exceeding ∼70 % strongly enhanced synergies among multiple ESs, while cropland proportions between 30 and 65 % intensified trade-offs (e.g., between soil conservation and water yield). Impervious expansion consistently degraded ESs. Our results demonstrate that optimizing LULC patterns-prioritizing forest conservation (>70 % cover), limiting cropland (<65 %), and controlling urban sprawl-at the sub-watershed scale minimizes ESs trade-offs. This study establishes quantitative thresholds to guide targeted land-use planning and ecological restoration policies in hilly regions globally, supporting sustainable landscape governance.

全球气候变化和人类活动加剧推动了土地利用和土地覆盖（LULC）的快速变化，特别是在中国南部丘陵地区（SHR）等生态脆弱地区，影响了生态系统服务（ESs）的权衡/协同效应。然而，控制这些关系的依赖于规模的阈值仍然很难量化。利用InVEST模型、敏感性指数和分段线性回归分析了1990-2020年区域、流域和亚流域尺度上的生态环境动态（水量、土壤保持、碳储量、养分保持和生境质量）。生态系统响应表现出显著的尺度效应，其中小流域对LULC变化的敏感性最高，是最稳定的管理单元。特别是，我们发现临界LULC阈值调节着权衡/协同效应：森林覆盖率超过70%强烈增强了多个生态系统之间的协同效应，而农田比例在30%至65%之间则强化了权衡（例如，在水土保持和水量之间）。不透水膨胀持续降低ESs。我们的研究结果表明，在亚流域尺度上优化LULC模式——优先保护森林（70%覆盖率）、限制耕地（65%）和控制城市扩张——可以最大限度地减少碳排放的权衡。本研究建立了定量阈值，可指导全球丘陵区有针对性的土地利用规划和生态恢复政策，支持可持续的景观治理。

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引用次数: 0

Simulating categorical environmental dynamics using a Spatio-Temporal Integrated Geographic Generative Adversarial Network framework 使用时空集成地理生成对抗网络框架模拟分类环境动态

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101133

Abdol Rassoul Zarei

To overcome the limitations of traditional models to simulate discrete environmental variables, this study introduces a novel, integrated simulation framework: the Spatio-Temporal Integrated Geographic Generative Adversarial Network (ST-IGeo-GAN). This model directly processes raw raster data, including the target variable along with dynamic and static auxiliary indices. It learns to simulate the system's future state based on its prior state and spatial drivers. To evaluate the model's performance, the Vegetation Health Index (VHI) in Fars province, Iran, was forecast for the 2025–2030 period under three scenarios: (A) without auxiliary indices, (B) with the one dynamic auxiliary index: Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), and (C) with both dynamic and static auxiliary indices: NDVI and Digital Elevation Model (DEM). The model was trained using VHI and NDVI imagery from 2003 to 2024. Evaluation results demonstrated that scenario B significantly outperformed scenarios A and C. Furthermore, a direct comparison against a CA-Markov and Conv-LSTM models confirmed the ST-IGeo-GAN's fundamental superiority, as the latter produced forecasts with significantly higher spatial accuracy. This finding suggests that while dynamic drivers are critical for temporal forecasting, the inclusion of less informative static variables can degrade model performance. Additionally, trend analysis for the extended period (2003–2030) under the superior Scenario B projected an emerging tendency towards drier conditions. This highlights a potential shift in the system's variability. The ST-IGeo-GAN framework provides a powerful, data-driven tool for simulating spatiotemporal systems, offering valuable insights for proactive environmental management and risk assessment.

为了克服传统模型在模拟离散环境变量方面的局限性，本研究引入了一种新的集成模拟框架：时空集成地理生成对抗网络（ST-IGeo-GAN）。该模型直接处理原始栅格数据，包括目标变量以及动态和静态辅助指标。它学习基于系统的先前状态和空间驱动来模拟系统的未来状态。为了评价模型的性能，对伊朗法尔斯省2025-2030年植被健康指数（VHI）进行了三种情景下的预测：(A)无辅助指数，(B)有一个动态辅助指数：归一化植被指数（NDVI）， (C)有动态和静态辅助指数：NDVI和数字高程模型（DEM）。该模型使用2003 - 2024年的VHI和NDVI图像进行训练。评估结果表明，情景B显著优于情景A和情景c。此外，与CA-Markov模型和convl - lstm模型的直接比较证实了ST-IGeo-GAN的根本优势，因为后者产生的预测具有更高的空间精度。这一发现表明，虽然动态驱动因素对时间预测至关重要，但包含信息较少的静态变量可能会降低模型的性能。此外，在较优情景B下对较长时期（2003-2030年）的趋势分析预测，气候条件将出现越来越干燥的趋势。这突出了系统可变性的潜在转变。ST-IGeo-GAN框架为模拟时空系统提供了强大的数据驱动工具，为主动环境管理和风险评估提供了有价值的见解。

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引用次数: 0

Comparative assessment of restored mine tailings based on an integrative ecological quality index 基于综合生态质量指数的恢复尾矿对比评价

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101134

Cristian M. Muñoz-Maluenda , Juan M. Moya-Pérez , Jose A. Navarro-Cano , Miguel A. Esteve

Mining wastes keep soil metal contents above toxicity thresholds many years after abandonment. The physical and chemical infertility of mining tailings makes them prone to high rates of erosion, posing an environmental threat for neighbouring areas. New restoration programs of these wastes might be based on comparative analyses of successful restoration projects.

Here we designed a Tailing Ecological Quality Index (TEQI) to compare the environmental status of nine tailings restored through different techniques across 30 years. These tailings belong to a semiarid mining district from SE Spain. TEQI integrated eight weighted physical, chemical and biological semi-quantitative indices, thus summarizing in a single value an estimate of the current status of a site.

The vegetation growth rate was the main determinant of TEQI, thus contributing to improve physical and ecological conditions. The high bioaccumulation of metals in some of the studied plant species advised against the risk of using them in future restoration projects without an effective waste isolation method. Contrary to what was expected, the results indicated that a higher cost·ha⁻¹ of the project (directly related to higher intervention level), did not guarantee higher success (TEQI) than cheaper and less complex restoration methods. In fact, TEQI was negatively affected by the cost·ha⁻¹ in projects below 0.4 M€·ha⁻¹. Moreover, the closeness to undisturbed vegetation in the tailing neighbourhood contributed to reach a higher TEQI.

This quality index can be adapted as an integrative method to compare other restored ecosystems beyond mining areas through fitting the relative weight of each component.

采矿废弃物在废弃多年后仍保持土壤金属含量高于毒性阈值。采矿尾矿的物理和化学不育性使它们容易受到高度侵蚀，对邻近地区构成环境威胁。新的废物修复方案可以在对成功的修复方案进行比较分析的基础上制定。本文设计了尾矿生态质量指数（TEQI），比较了不同工艺修复的9种尾矿30年来的环境状况。这些尾矿属于西班牙东南部的半干旱矿区。TEQI综合了八个加权的物理、化学和生物半定量指标，从而在一个单一的值中总结了对一个地点现状的估计。植被生长速率是TEQI的主要决定因素，有助于改善物理和生态条件。由于金属在某些被研究的植物物种中具有较高的生物蓄积性，建议在没有有效的废物隔离方法的情况下，避免在未来的修复项目中使用它们。与预期相反，结果表明，与成本更低、更简单的修复方法相比，较高的项目成本（与较高的干预水平直接相关）并不能保证更高的修复成功率（TEQI）。事实上，在低于40万欧元·ha - 1的项目中，TEQI受到成本·ha - 1的负面影响。此外，尾矿库周边与未受干扰植被的接近程度有助于达到较高的TEQI。通过拟合各组成部分的相对权重，该质量指数可以作为一种综合方法来比较矿区以外的其他恢复生态系统。

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引用次数: 0

A novel watershed viability assessment grounded in global sustainable development goals 基于全球可持续发展目标的流域生存力评估

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-15 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101057

Marjan Bahlekeh , Seyed Hamidreza Sadeghi

The current study will deal with the problem of natural resource degradation, presenting a new, multifaceted approach to the measurement of watershed health. This idea determines the capacity of a watershed to be structurally and functionally sound within a safe operating interval that has its upper (i.e., resilience) and lower (i.e., release) limits. The method extends beyond the analogous concepts by quantitatively prognosing the nearness of a system to highly sensitive breaking points, by providing a dynamically diagnostic framework and management recommendations. The viability was determined at economic, social, infrastructural, and environmental dimensions. Content Validity Ratio (CVR) and Index (CVI) were used to validate criteria refinement with expert input (n = 40) used to refine criteria. A complex viability index was calculated on these criteria, and interrelationships between them investigated by Interpretive Structural Modelling (ISM) and MICMAC analysis. The framework was applied to the Shazand Watershed in Iran and determined a moderate-depletion state with a weighted mean index of viability of 41.46 % (±5.74). Spatial zoning map showed central sub-watersheds to be the most vulnerable. A SDGs-based performance evaluation revealed that SDG 13 (Climate Action) and SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) were the most successful (80.63 % and 62.59 %). On the other hand, the lowest scores were received by SDG 17 (Partnerships for the Goals) and SDG 15 (Life on Land) (30.71 % and 33.40 %). The conceptualized model and its pilot application demonstrates a critical and transferable instrument for assessing watershed viability that decision-makers should use to develop comprehensive and specific watershed management plans.

目前的研究将处理自然资源退化问题，提出一种新的、多方面的方法来衡量流域健康。这一理念决定了流域在安全运行区间内结构和功能健全的能力，该区间有其上限（即弹性）和下限（即释放）。该方法通过提供动态诊断框架和管理建议，定量预测系统与高度敏感断点的接近程度，从而超越了类似的概念。可行性是在经济、社会、基础设施和环境方面确定的。使用内容效度比（CVR）和指数（CVI）来验证标准的改进，使用专家输入（n = 40）来改进标准。在此基础上计算了复合生存力指数，并通过解释结构模型（ISM）和MICMAC分析研究了它们之间的相互关系。该框架应用于伊朗Shazand流域，确定其处于中度枯竭状态，加权平均生存指数为41.46%（±5.74）。空间分区图显示，中部分流域最脆弱。基于可持续发展目标的绩效评估显示，可持续发展目标13（气候行动）和可持续发展目标3（良好健康和福祉）最为成功（分别为80.63%和62.59%）。另一方面，得分最低的是可持续发展目标17（目标伙伴关系）和可持续发展目标15（陆地上的生命）（30.71%和33.40%）。概念化模型及其试点应用表明，这是评估流域生存能力的关键和可转移工具，决策者应利用它制定全面和具体的流域管理计划。

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引用次数: 0

Future climate change will facilitate the distribution expansion of the rare and endangered Platycrater arguta 未来的气候变化将促进稀有和濒危的白颈月牙分布的扩大

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101128

Lei Feng , Haoyu Wang , Jiahuan Guo , Xule Zhang , Xiaohua Ma , Yaping Hu , Difei Wu , Qingdi Hu , Jian Zheng

Platycrater arguta, an endangered shrub endemic to China subtropical montane forests, plays a key role in regional biodiversity. However, the potential impacts of climate change on its suitable habitat remain unclear. This study employs ensemble modeling to predict the species' distribution under current and future climate scenarios (2050s, 2070s, 2090s) across three SSPs (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). Annual precipitation (BIO12), and UV-B radiation (UVB4) were identified as dominant environmental drivers. Currently, core suitable habitats are concentrated in Zhejiang, Fujian, and Jiangxi, covering approximately 6.72 × 10⁴ km². Predicted expansion peaks under SSP585 (2070s), followed by SSP245 (2090s), SSP585 (2090s) and SSP126 (2070s). Future core distribution areas are expected to shift northwestward toward the Jiangxi-Hunan border, a region with complex topography. We recommend prioritizing this zone for conservation, establishing ecological corridors, and enhancing ex situ conservation under SSP126. To improve predictive accuracy, future work should incorporate finer-scale regional climate data and field monitoring. Notably, this study is the first to quantify P. arguta sensitivity thresholds to precipitation and UVB radiation, offering a reference model for conserving other subtropical endangered plants.

白颈扁桃（Platycrater arguta）是中国亚热带山地特有的濒危灌木，在区域生物多样性中起着关键作用。然而，气候变化对其适宜栖息地的潜在影响尚不清楚。本研究采用整体建模来预测当前和未来气候情景下的物种的分布(2050年代,2070年代,2090年代)在三个SSPs (SSP126, SSP245 SSP585)。年降水量（BIO12）和UV-B辐射（UVB4）是主要的环境驱动因素。目前，核心适宜生境主要集中在浙江、福建和江西，面积约为6.72 × 104 km2。预测扩张高峰在SSP585（2070年代），其次是SSP245（2090年代）、SSP585（2090年代）和SSP126（2070年代）。未来的核心分布区预计将向地形复杂的湘西边界向西北方向转移。我们建议优先保护该地区，建立生态走廊，并根据SSP126加强迁地保护。为了提高预测精度，未来的工作应结合更精细的区域气候数据和野外监测。值得注意的是，本研究首次量化了软叶油松对降水和UVB辐射的敏感性阈值，为其他亚热带濒危植物的保护提供了参考模型。

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