Environmental and Sustainability Indicators最新文献_第5页

Predicting sustainability of fish stock using a simple length-based approach: An example of little tunny in the Southeast Atlantic 用简单的基于长度的方法预测鱼类资源的可持续性：以东南大西洋的小金枪鱼为例

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101132

Amidu Mansaray , Richard Kindong , Mustapha Sly Bayon , Komba Jossie Konoyima , Jiangfeng Zhu

The stock status of little tunny (Euthynnus alletteratus) in the Southeast Atlantic remains poorly understood, posing a major challenge for effective fisheries management. This study applies the aggregated Length-Based Indicator (aLBI) framework to conduct a data-limited, length-based assessment, with a specific focus on purse-seine fisheries operating on Fish Aggregating Device (FAD) and free-school (FSC) fishing modes. Length-frequency data from more than 22,000 individuals were used to estimate key life-history parameters and Froese sustainability indicators, including the proportion of mature fish (Pmat), the proportion harvested at optimal length (Popt), and the proportion of mega-spawners (Pmaga). Results indicate that FAD-associated fishery is severely depletion, with a high probability that stock biomass is below the limit spawning biomass reference point (LSB25). In contrast, the FSC fishery appears to be in a substantially better condition exhibiting indicator consistent with a more sustainable exploitation pattern. Sensitivity analysis show that the assessment outcomes are robust to uncertainty in asymptotic length (Linf) but highly sensitive to estimates of length at maturity (Lmat), identifying this parameter as a critical research priority. The study represents the first application of the aLBI framework to assess the stock status of little tunny across the Atlantic Ocean and highlights the utility of length-based methods for informing management in data-limited fisheries. We conclude that urgent, gear-specific management measures are required to ensure stock sustainability, particularly through the regulation of fishing mortality in the FAD associated fishery.

东南大西洋小金枪鱼（Euthynnus alletteratus）的种群状况仍然知之甚少，这对有效的渔业管理构成了重大挑战。本研究采用基于长度的综合指标（aLBI）框架进行数据有限的基于长度的评估，特别关注采用鱼群聚集装置（FAD）和自由鱼群（FSC）捕捞模式的围网渔业。利用来自22,000多条个体的长度-频率数据来估计关键的生活史参数和Froese可持续性指标，包括成熟鱼的比例（Pmat），最佳长度收获比例（Popt）和巨型产卵者的比例（Pmaga）。结果表明，fad相关渔业资源严重枯竭，种群生物量极有可能低于极限产卵生物量参考点（LSB25）。相比之下，FSC渔业的情况似乎要好得多，其指标与更可持续的开发模式相一致。敏感性分析表明，评估结果对渐近长度（Linf）的不确定性具有鲁棒性，但对成熟度长度（Lmat）的估计高度敏感，将该参数确定为关键的研究重点。这项研究是aLBI框架第一次应用于评估横跨大西洋的小金枪鱼种群状况，并突出了基于长度的方法在数据有限的渔业中为管理提供信息的效用。我们的结论是，需要采取紧急的、针对特定渔具的管理措施，以确保种群的可持续性，特别是通过管制与FAD有关的渔业的捕鱼死亡率。

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引用次数: 0

Analysis of rural households’ livelihood vulnerability to natural-hazard risks in the Sile-Sago watershed, Southern Rift Valley Basin, Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚南部裂谷盆地Sile-Sago流域农户生计对自然灾害风险的脆弱性分析

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-12 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101126

Asnake Boyana , Abiyot Legesse , Abera Uncha , Abren Gelaw

In Ethiopia, natural hazard threats have an adverse effect on many livelihoods. However, the systematic assessment of rural household livelihood vulnerability to the threats is lacking in the Sile-Sago watershed, which the study seeks to address. A survey was conducted with 299 households chosen using systematic random sampling. The Livelihood Vulnerability-Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Indexes were utilized, with values ranging (0 (least to1 most vulnerable). The Livelihood Vulnerability Index for each district was developed using 14 essential components. The Livelihood Vulnerability Index for each district was derived from 14 essential components. The findings showed that Arba Minch Zuriya district, the lower parts of the watershed, was highly vulnerable to flood hazard risks, with indices of 0.73, 0.54, and 0.41 for adaptive capacity, exposure, and sensitivity factors, respectively. Geresse district, located in the watershed's highland agro-ecology, was highly vulnerable to landslide hazard risks, with the respective indices of 0.61, 0.60, and 0.55 for adaptive capacity, exposure and sensitivity. The Zuriya final vulnerability index is 0.22. The Geresse district's aggregate livelihood vulnerability index is 0.54. Plan to mitigate the livelihood vulnerability of households in the Geresse and Arba Minch Zuriya districts to landslide and flood hazards and enhance their resilience. The targeted interventions and collaborative plans should be developed, coordinating productive safety nets, food security, and agricultural offices across affected households, kebeles, districts, and local government administrations, and non-governmental organizations.

在埃塞俄比亚，自然灾害威胁对许多人的生计产生不利影响。然而，该研究试图解决的Sile-Sago流域缺乏对农村家庭生计脆弱性的系统评估。采用系统随机抽样的方法，对299户家庭进行了调查。生计脆弱性-政府间气候变化专门委员会指数的取值范围为0（最脆弱）到1（最脆弱）。每个地区的生计脆弱性指数由14个基本组成部分组成。每个地区的生计脆弱性指数由14个基本组成部分得出。结果表明，流域下游Arba Minch Zuriya地区的适应能力指数、暴露指数和敏感性指数分别为0.73、0.54和0.41，是洪水灾害的高危区。Geresse区处于流域高原农业生态，滑坡灾害风险高度脆弱，适应能力指数、暴露度指数和敏感性指数分别为0.61、0.60和0.55。Zuriya最终漏洞指数为0.22。Geresse地区的综合生计脆弱性指数为0.54。制定计划，减轻Geresse和Arba Minch Zuriya地区家庭生计对山体滑坡和洪水灾害的脆弱性，并增强其抵御能力。应制定有针对性的干预措施和协作计划，协调受影响家庭、家庭、地区、地方政府管理部门和非政府组织之间的生产安全网、粮食安全和农业办事处。

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引用次数: 0

Risk analysis of water resources carrying capacity based on a novel early warning framework 基于新型预警框架的水资源承载能力风险分析

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101120

Heyuan Zhou , Xinwei Guo , Suzhen Dang , Chengpeng Lu

Water Resources Carrying Capacity (WRCC) embodies the fundamental constraint relationship between water resource sustainability and regional economic growth as well as social development, serving as a key indicator for assessing regional sustainable development. Existing studies mainly focus on carrying capacity or status assessment, often deriving deterministic results based solely on a single factor. However, as an indicator of sustainability, WRCC is inevitably influenced by uncertainty risks. Therefore, This study develops a novel Water Resources Carrying Capacity Early Warning (WRCCEW) system based on the Driving force-Pressure-State-Impact-Response-Management (DPSIRM) framework and applies it to evaluate the status of Henan Province from 2011 to 2023.Using the Geographical Detector (GD) model, this study examined the drivers of WRCCEW during different periods along with their interaction effects, while the Bayesian Network (BN) model was applied to simulate the probability of risk occurrence under diverse scenarios. Findings reveal that in Henan Province, the no warning zones are migrating from the west toward the south, the proportion of extreme warning zones has markedly decreased, whereas the proportion of no warning zones has experienced a modest reduction. Meanwhile, the interactive effects of multiple factors exert a significantly stronger influence on WRCCEW than single-factor effects, with the coupling between total water resources and other factors being the most prominent. In the scenario simulations, the S18 scenario can significantly reduce the occurrence of high-risk situations in Henan Province. This study provides a comprehensive framework for the early risk assessment of regional WRCC, highlighting the importance of incorporating uncertainty and probabilistic risks in sustainability evaluation.

水资源承载力体现了水资源可持续性与区域经济增长和社会发展之间的基本约束关系，是评价区域可持续发展的关键指标。现有的研究主要集中在承载能力或状态评估上，往往仅基于单一因素得出确定性的结果。然而，作为可持续性指标，WRCC不可避免地受到不确定性风险的影响。为此，本研究基于驱动力-压力-状态-影响-响应-管理（DPSIRM）框架构建了水资源承载力预警系统，并将其应用于河南省2011 - 2023年水资源承载力状况评估。利用地理探测器（GD）模型分析了不同时期WRCCEW的驱动因素及其相互作用，并利用贝叶斯网络（BN）模型模拟了不同情景下WRCCEW发生风险的概率。结果表明：河南省无预警区呈现由西向南迁移的趋势，极端预警区比例显著减少，无预警区比例略有减少；同时，多因素的交互效应对WRCCEW的影响显著强于单因素效应，其中水资源总量与其他因素之间的耦合最为突出。在情景模拟中，S18情景可以显著减少河南省高风险情景的发生。本研究为区域WRCC早期风险评估提供了一个综合框架，强调了在可持续性评估中纳入不确定性和概率风险的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

Navigating rural futures: Scenario-Based insights into non-agricultural employment in western Iran 导航农村未来：基于场景的伊朗西部非农业就业洞察

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101129

Samaneh Sanjabi, Amirhossein Alibaygi

Rural communities are increasingly challenged by climate change, declining agricultural productivity, and economic vulnerabilities, highlighting the urgent need for livelihood diversification. This study aims to identify, analyze, and forecast the key driving factors shaping the future of rural non-agricultural employment (RNFE) in the Bilavar district, Kermanshah, Iran. Specifically, the research seeks to (1) determine the main socio-economic and environmental variables influencing RNFE, (2) assess their mutual interactions, and (3) develop plausible future scenarios to support rural policy planning. A mixed-methods design was employed, integrating sustainable development and social capital frameworks. Using MICMAC and Scenario Wizard analytical tools, key drivers and interrelationships were explored to construct alternative futures. Results reveal that government support policies (V3), entrepreneurship and innovation (V4), and rural tourism (V13) emerged as the most influential and strategic drivers of RNFE development. Among the scenarios, balanced growth (Scenario 2) is the most likely, reflecting gradual progress under current conditions, while conservative stability and stagnation (Scenarios 3 and 4) are also plausible. The primary objective to develop a foresight-based framework for rural employment diversification underscores the importance of targeted interventions such as local financial initiatives, market-oriented skills training, and tourism infrastructure development to promote economic diversification, reduce youth migration, and enhance livelihood resilience. The study introduces a novel, futures-oriented analytical framework and offers a practical model applicable to similar rural regions in developing countries.

农村社区日益受到气候变化、农业生产力下降和经济脆弱性的挑战，凸显了生计多样化的迫切需要。本研究旨在识别、分析和预测影响伊朗克尔曼沙阿Bilavar地区农村非农业就业未来的关键驱动因素。具体而言，该研究旨在(1)确定影响农村农村经济发展的主要社会经济和环境变量，(2)评估它们之间的相互作用，以及(3)制定合理的未来情景，以支持农村政策规划。采用混合方法设计，整合可持续发展和社会资本框架。利用MICMAC和Scenario Wizard分析工具，探讨了构建替代未来的关键驱动因素和相互关系。研究结果表明，政府扶持政策（V3）、创业创新（V4）和乡村旅游（V13）是东北地区发展最具影响力的战略驱动力。在这些情景中，平衡增长（情景2）是最有可能的，反映了当前条件下的渐进进展，而保守稳定和停滞（情景3和4）也是有可能的。主要目标是为农村就业多样化制定一个以远见为基础的框架，强调有针对性的干预措施的重要性，如地方金融倡议、市场导向的技能培训和旅游基础设施发展，以促进经济多样化，减少青年移民，增强生计抵御能力。该研究引入了一种新颖的、面向未来的分析框架，并提供了一个适用于发展中国家类似农村地区的实用模型。

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引用次数: 0

Assessing technical efficiency and production risk under eco-friendly practices: Evidence from Aman rice farming in Bangladesh 评估生态友好实践下的技术效率和生产风险：来自孟加拉国阿曼水稻种植的证据

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101127

Subrata Koiry , Anjon Sarkar Shuvo , Md. Shah Alamgir , Swarup Barua

Sustainable rice production is crucial for ensuring food security in Bangladesh, because traditional practices damage biodiversity, and result in yield variability and economic loss. This paper examines how eco-friendly farming practices affects technical efficiency and production risk in Aman rice production. The analysis concentrates on four eco-friendly practices used in the study area, which are crop diversification, organic farming, straw returning and land resting. Technical efficiency represents how much rice farmers are close to maximum optimal output, and production risk implies the variability in rice output due to uncertain climatic and agro-ecological conditions. Primary data were collected through face-to-face interviews from 534 Aman rice farmers of Moulvibazar district. The stochastic frontier analysis (SFA) was used to evaluate the technical efficiency and production risk in rice production. The findings show that the mean technical efficiency of Aman rice production was 77 %. Land, labor, and fertilizer significantly increased rice output. Organic farming enhanced inefficiency but reduced risk, whereas diversification stabilized output and increased efficiency. Straw returning also enhanced efficiency, but it had no significant impact on risk. Conversely, land resting had no effect on efficiency, although it positively affected production risk. Eco-friendly farming practices can make rice production sustainable, but their effect on efficiency and risk differs by practice. Future research could investigate the nexus between multiple eco-friendly practices, efficiency and risk. Therefore, policies in the form of subsidies, credit facilities, and advisory services must be tailored to support eco-friendly practices in such a way that it balances efficiency gain and risk reduction.

可持续的水稻生产对于确保孟加拉国的粮食安全至关重要，因为传统做法破坏生物多样性，并导致产量变化和经济损失。本文考察了生态友好型耕作方式如何影响阿曼水稻生产的技术效率和生产风险。分析集中在研究区域采用的四种环保做法，即作物多样化、有机农业、秸秆还田和土地休息。技术效率代表水稻种植者离最优产量有多近，而生产风险意味着由于不确定的气候和农业生态条件导致的水稻产量的变化。通过对Moulvibazar地区534名阿曼稻农的面对面访谈收集了主要数据。采用随机前沿分析（SFA）对水稻生产中的技术效率和生产风险进行了评价。结果表明，阿曼水稻生产的平均技术效率为77%。土地、劳动力和肥料显著提高了水稻产量。有机农业提高了低效率，但降低了风险，而多样化稳定了产量，提高了效率。秸秆还田提高了效率，但对风险影响不显著。相反，土地闲置对效率没有影响，尽管它对生产风险有积极影响。生态友好型耕作方法可以使水稻生产具有可持续性，但其对效率和风险的影响因实践而异。未来的研究可以调查多种环保实践、效率和风险之间的关系。因此，必须调整补贴、信贷便利和咨询服务等形式的政策，以支持环保实践，从而在提高效率和降低风险之间取得平衡。

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引用次数: 0

Diverse perceptions of ecosystem (dis)services in a Himalayan protected area 对喜马拉雅保护区生态系统（dis）服务的不同认识

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101130

Daya Raj Subedi , Qijing Liu , Dinesh Raj Bhuju , Shrijana Vaidya , Yam Bahadur KC , Prajal Pradhan

Protected areas are essential for balancing biodiversity conservation with the delivery of ecosystem services. However, despite extensive research on the economic valuation of these services, understanding local people's perceptions, particularly of ecosystem services and disservices, remains limited. Therefore, we assessed local perceptions and their socio-demographic determinants in Langtang National Park, a protected area in Nepal's Himalayan region. Ecosystem services and disservices were identified through a stakeholder consultation workshop. We conducted semi-structured interviews with 105 respondents. Both quantitative and qualitative analyses combined Fisher's exact test with Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 replicates), Cramer's V, and content analysis. The most highly regarded ecosystem services include drinking water (96 % of respondents), species and habitat conservation (92 %), air quality maintenance (91 %), protecting the environment for future generations (89 %), and water quality maintenance (89 %). The common ecosystem disservices include crop raiding by wildlife (93 %), allergies (58 %), and barriers to development and construction (48 %). Education and occupation are significantly associated with perceptions of ecosystem services, including carbon sequestration, air regulation, tourism, and research. Although ecosystem services are perceived to operate from local to global scales, disservices are mainly experienced at the local level. This emphasizes developing localized solutions in both national and international biodiversity conservation policies and practices, including indicators for ecosystem disservices.

保护区对于平衡生物多样性保护与提供生态系统服务至关重要。然而，尽管对这些服务的经济价值进行了广泛的研究，但了解当地人的看法，特别是对生态系统服务和危害的看法仍然有限。因此，我们在尼泊尔喜马拉雅地区的保护区琅塘国家公园评估了当地人的看法及其社会人口统计学决定因素。通过利益相关者咨询研讨会确定了生态系统的服务和危害。我们对105名受访者进行了半结构化访谈。定量和定性分析结合了Fisher的精确检验与蒙特卡罗模拟（10,000个重复）、Cramer V和内容分析。最受重视的生态系统服务包括饮用水（96%的受访者）、物种和栖息地保护（92%）、空气质量维护（91%）、为子孙后代保护环境（89%）和水质维护（89%）。常见的生态系统损害包括野生动物袭击作物（93%）、过敏（58%）和开发和建设障碍（48%）。教育和职业与生态系统服务的认知显著相关，包括碳固存、空气调节、旅游和研究。虽然人们认为生态系统服务从地方到全球范围都在发挥作用，但损害主要发生在地方一级。这强调在国家和国际生物多样性保护政策和做法中制定本地化的解决办法，包括生态系统损害指标。

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引用次数: 0

Synergistic effects of green finance and environmental taxation on consumption-based carbon emissions in developed economies 绿色金融与环境税对发达经济体消费碳排放的协同效应

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-10 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101119

Suman Ahuja, Ashish Kumar, Deepa, Nupur Soti, Jancy Phore

This study investigates how green finance (GF) and environmental taxes (ERT) provide synergistic impact in reducing consumption-based carbon emissions (CBE) in 17 developed economies over a period from 1995 to 2024 when concerns for environmental sustainability are being accorded highest priority across the globe. The choice of CBE is more scientific, which is a comprehensive metric for measuring global environmental deterioration vis-a-vis production-based measures. Based on established underlying theoretical framework, the study employs two-way fixed effects with Driscoll-Kraay standard errors, system GMM, and method-of-moments quantile regression to address concerns for cross-sectional dependence, heterogeneity, and endogeneity. The empirical findings reveal that both GF and ERT help in CBE mitigation, while their interaction effect offers significant synergistic effects as GF relaxes capital constraints, enables entities to effectively respond to ERT levies and achieve real emission reductions rather than offshoring them. The interaction gets strengthened through renewable energy consumption and embodied carbon trade channels. The results are uniform and robust under various model specifications, levels of CBE, and choice of econometric techniques. The novel findings on GF-ERT synergy enhance the existing knowledge and offers actionable policy insights for formulating integrated environment control regulations for achieving environmental sustainability.

本研究调查了1995年至2024年期间17个发达经济体中绿色金融（GF）和环境税（ERT）如何在减少基于消费的碳排放（CBE）方面提供协同影响，当时全球对环境可持续性的关注是最优先的。CBE的选择更科学，它是衡量全球环境恶化与基于生产的措施的综合指标。基于已建立的基本理论框架，本研究采用双向固定效应与Driscoll-Kraay标准误差、系统GMM和矩量法分位数回归来解决截面依赖性、异质性和内质性的问题。实证结果表明，GF和ERT都有助于减缓CBE，而它们的相互作用产生了显著的协同效应，因为GF放松了资本约束，使实体能够有效地应对ERT征收并实现真正的减排，而不是将其外包出去。通过可再生能源消费和隐含碳交易渠道，这种互动得到加强。在不同的模型规格、CBE水平和计量技术选择下，结果是一致和稳健的。关于GF-ERT协同作用的新发现增强了现有知识，并为制定实现环境可持续性的综合环境控制法规提供了可操作的政策见解。

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引用次数: 0

Spatiotemporal evolution, driving factors, and future projections of China’s multiple environmental footprints under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 共享社会经济路径下中国多重环境足迹时空演变、驱动因素及未来预测

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101124

Qi Huang , Zhipeng Li , Jianxiao Zhu , Yuxuan Jin , Zhen Zhang , Pengdong Yan , Ziheng Li

Recent decades have experienced swift economic growth in China, resulting ecological and environmental challenges of variable severity. However, understanding long-term trends in environmental footprints at the province level from both historical and prospective viewpoints continue to pose a challenge. This study examines three environmental footprint indicators (ecological-carbon-water footprints) across 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2020, employing the fixed effects-based STIRPAT model and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) framework to investigate their driving forces and forecast long-term trajectories. The findings reveal significant spatial heterogeneity in environmental footprints, with the eastern coastal regions exhibiting markedly elevated values compared to other areas. Meanwhile, ecological and carbon footprints exhibited the most rapid expansion in the western regions, leading to a westward shift in their spatial center of gravity. This is primarily owing to the increase in environmental footprints in underdeveloped regions, driven by demographic and economic growth, although technological advancements have partially mitigated this trend. Moreover, the eastern coastal regions are under significant environmental pressure, and a declining coupling coordination degree between the environmental and economic systems may further exacerbate this pressure in the near term. Scenario analysis indicates that SSP1 represents the most effective pathway, achieving a reduction of roughly 25.2 %–77.1 % in environmental footprints by year 2100.

近几十年来，中国经济快速增长，生态环境面临不同程度的挑战。然而，从历史和未来的角度来理解省一级环境足迹的长期趋势仍然是一个挑战。本研究以2000 - 2020年中国30个省份的生态碳水足迹为研究对象，采用基于固定效应的STIRPAT模型和共享社会经济路径（ssp）框架，探讨了生态碳水足迹的驱动力，并对其长期发展轨迹进行了预测。结果表明，环境足迹具有显著的空间异质性，东部沿海地区的环境足迹值明显高于其他地区。生态足迹和碳足迹在西部地区扩张最为迅速，空间重心向西移动。这主要是由于受人口和经济增长的推动，不发达地区的环境足迹增加，尽管技术进步在一定程度上缓解了这一趋势。东部沿海地区环境压力较大，环境与经济系统耦合协调程度的下降可能会在短期内进一步加剧这一压力。情景分析表明，SSP1是最有效的途径，到2100年可实现约25.2% - 77.1%的环境足迹减少。

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引用次数: 0

Predicting socio-climatic risk hotspots for smallholder dairy farming: A 2050 forecast for the Indo-Gangetic plains of India 预测小农奶牛养殖的社会气候风险热点：2050年对印度恒河平原的预测

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-09 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101125

Siddhesh Zade , Sanjit Maiti , Apoorva Veldandi , Amitava Panja , Sanchita Garai , Akshay Muluk , Bishwa Bhaskar Choudhary , Rupak Goswami , Anirban Mukherjee , Gopal Sankhala

The unprecedented changes in the climatic conditions are being indiscriminately experienced across the globe, with effects which are felt asymmetrically around the world by different regions due to numerous socioeconomic disparities in play. Especially, the higher magnitude of rising temperatures and aberrations in rainfall make the Indo Gangetic Plains (IGP) more fragile toward social facets of climatic vulnerabilities. Indo Gangetic Plains are dominated by smallholders with higher agricultural production and livestock, for whose sustainability it is imperative to comprehend the nature and extent of risk due to climate change in an interaction with the societal aspects. A novel district-level socio-climatic risk index for dairying, constituting 68 indicators tailored to and encompassing the dairy production system, was developed using the IPCC Risk Assessment Framework (2014). Taking it one step further, geospatial hotspots were analysed (using Getis Ord Gi∗) to quantify district-level risks for the dairy production system in Indo Gangetic Plains spanning across the 171 districts of five states of India. To capture the dynamics of the changing risk, the historical risk was compared against two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, namely, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The results revealed a higher area of 11,071,783 ha under risk hotspots in the eastern part of IGP (covering Bihar and West Bengal) projected to intensify and increase in area by 1,690,921 ha (3.83 %) and 1,667,179 ha (3.78 %) as per SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, by the 2050s. Hence, location-specific adaptation plan may be formulated to improve the climate resiliency of the smallholder dairy production system of India.

全球正在不分青红皂白地经历前所未有的气候条件变化，由于众多的社会经济差异，其影响在世界各地的不同地区是不对称的。特别是，更高幅度的气温上升和降雨异常使印度恒河平原（IGP）在气候脆弱性的社会方面更加脆弱。印度恒河平原以小农为主，拥有较高的农业生产和牲畜，为了其可持续性，必须了解气候变化与社会方面相互作用所带来的风险的性质和程度。利用IPCC风险评估框架（2014年）开发了一个新的区级乳制品社会气候风险指数，该指数由68个指标组成，适合并涵盖了乳制品生产系统。更进一步，我们分析了地理空间热点（使用Getis Ord Gi *），以量化印度恒河平原上跨越印度5个邦171个地区的乳制品生产系统的地区风险。为了捕捉风险变化的动态，将历史风险与两个共享社会经济路径情景（即SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5）进行了比较。结果显示，IGP东部（包括比哈尔邦和西孟加拉邦）的风险热点地区的面积为11,071,783公顷，预计到2050年代，根据SSP2-4.5和SSP5-8.5，该地区的面积将分别增加1,690,921公顷（3.83%）和1,667,179公顷（3.78%）。因此，可以制定因地制宜的适应计划，以提高印度小农乳制品生产系统的气候适应能力。

{"title":"Predicting socio-climatic risk hotspots for smallholder dairy farming: A 2050 forecast for the Indo-Gangetic plains of India","authors":"Siddhesh Zade , Sanjit Maiti , Apoorva Veldandi , Amitava Panja , Sanchita Garai , Akshay Muluk , Bishwa Bhaskar Choudhary , Rupak Goswami , Anirban Mukherjee , Gopal Sankhala","doi":"10.1016/j.indic.2026.101125","DOIUrl":"10.1016/j.indic.2026.101125","url":null,"abstract":"<div><div>The unprecedented changes in the climatic conditions are being indiscriminately experienced across the globe, with effects which are felt asymmetrically around the world by different regions due to numerous socioeconomic disparities in play. Especially, the higher magnitude of rising temperatures and aberrations in rainfall make the Indo Gangetic Plains (IGP) more fragile toward social facets of climatic vulnerabilities. Indo Gangetic Plains are dominated by smallholders with higher agricultural production and livestock, for whose sustainability it is imperative to comprehend the nature and extent of risk due to climate change in an interaction with the societal aspects. A novel district-level socio-climatic risk index for dairying, constituting 68 indicators tailored to and encompassing the dairy production system, was developed using the IPCC Risk Assessment Framework (2014). Taking it one step further, geospatial hotspots were analysed (using Getis Ord Gi∗) to quantify district-level risks for the dairy production system in Indo Gangetic Plains spanning across the 171 districts of five states of India. To capture the dynamics of the changing risk, the historical risk was compared against two Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, namely, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5. The results revealed a higher area of 11,071,783 ha under risk hotspots in the eastern part of IGP (covering Bihar and West Bengal) projected to intensify and increase in area by 1,690,921 ha (3.83 %) and 1,667,179 ha (3.78 %) as per SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5, respectively, by the 2050s. Hence, location-specific adaptation plan may be formulated to improve the climate resiliency of the smallholder dairy production system of India.</div></div>","PeriodicalId":36171,"journal":{"name":"Environmental and Sustainability Indicators","volume":"29 ","pages":"Article 101125"},"PeriodicalIF":5.6,"publicationDate":"2026-01-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"145976928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Soil nematodes as bioindicators of agricultural management practices: Insights from bibliometric analysis 土壤线虫作为农业管理实践的生物指标：来自文献计量学分析的见解

IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Environmental and Sustainability Indicators

Pub Date : 2026-01-07 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2026.101123

Haotian Chen , Xiaoyu Shi , Hao Yang , Xinyi Wang , Haoruo Li

Soil nematodes have established themselves as powerful bioindicators for assessing soil health and ecosystem functioning in agricultural systems. Despite extensive research linking nematode communities to agricultural management practices such as tillage, crop rotation, and organic amendment, a global synthesis of research trends is lacking. This study conducted a bibliometric analysis of 2730 articles published between 1991 and 2024 to identify research hotspots and thematic evolution. Results revealed a steady increase in publications, with a marked statistical inflection in 2009 signaling a shift from exploratory to mature research phases. Organic amendments dominated the literature, accounting for over 60 % of studies, likely because they align with multiple sustainability agendas and benefit from long-term trial availability, whereas tillage and crop diversification were less represented. The United States and China were identified as the most productive contributors, with rapidly expanding international collaborations. Co-citation analysis revealed the central role of ecological indices and underscored a sustained research focus on root-knot nematodes (Meloidogyne spp.), a prioritization driven by their substantial impact on crop productivity. Emerging research increasingly emphasizes functional and metabolic footprints as integrative measures of soil food web functioning. Overall, substantial progress has been made in developing nematode-based ecological frameworks for soil health assessment. Translating these advances into robust field applications hinges on the enhanced collaboration among stakeholders to standardize methods and integrate nematode with key soil and environmental covariates.

土壤线虫已成为评估农业系统土壤健康和生态系统功能的有力生物指标。尽管广泛的研究将线虫群落与耕作、作物轮作和有机改良等农业管理实践联系起来，但缺乏对研究趋势的全球综合。本研究对1991 - 2024年间发表的2730篇文献进行了计量分析，以确定研究热点和主题演变。结果显示，论文发表量稳步增长，2009年的统计数据出现了明显的变化，标志着从探索性研究阶段向成熟研究阶段的转变。有机修正占据了文献的主导地位，占研究的60%以上，可能是因为它们与多种可持续性议程相一致，并受益于长期试验的可用性，而耕作和作物多样化的代表性较低。美国和中国被认为是最有成效的贡献者，国际合作迅速扩大。共被引分析揭示了生态指数的核心作用，并强调了对根结线虫（Meloidogyne spp.）的持续研究重点，这是由于它们对作物生产力的重大影响。新兴研究越来越强调功能和代谢足迹作为土壤食物网功能的综合措施。总体而言，在开发基于线虫的土壤健康评估生态框架方面取得了实质性进展。将这些进展转化为可靠的现场应用取决于利益相关者之间加强合作，使方法标准化，并将线虫与关键的土壤和环境协变量相结合。

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引用次数: 0