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Macroeconomic determinants of renewable energy expansion in Cambodia: Evidence from a VAR approach 柬埔寨可再生能源扩张的宏观经济决定因素:来自VAR方法的证据
IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-30 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101111
Pham Xuan Hoa , Vu Ngoc Xuan , Nguyen Thi Phuong Thu
This study examines the dynamic interrelationships among foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness (TO), gross domestic product (GDP), electricity consumption (EC), and renewable energy (RE) capacity in Cambodia from 2000 to 2023. Using a vector autoregression (VAR) framework, the analysis examines how shocks to these macroeconomic and energy variables are linked to subsequent movements within the system. Cambodia provides a relevant case due to its rapid economic expansion, rising electricity demand, and increasing exposure to external investment and trade, alongside a gradual and uneven expansion of RE. The results indicate that innovations in FDI, GDP, and TO are followed by statistically significant responses in EC and RE capacity over the forecast horizon, reflecting strong co-movement between economic activity and energy dynamics. EC shocks are likewise associated with short-to medium-term responses in GDP, highlighting the close linkage between energy demand and economic fluctuations. RE capacity exhibits more gradual and modest responses, suggesting that its role within the system remains supportive rather than dominant during the sample period. Variance decomposition results further show that fluctuations in economic variables account for a substantial share of forecast error variance in energy-related variables. At the same time, RE contributes a smaller but non-negligible share to the variability of economic indicators. These findings should be interpreted as evidence of dynamic associations rather than structural causal effects. The study offers insights into how macroeconomic conditions and energy variables evolve jointly in a late-developing, energy-importing economy, providing a descriptive basis for discussing coordination challenges and future research directions, rather than prescribing policy conclusions.
本研究考察了2000年至2023年柬埔寨外国直接投资(FDI)、贸易开放度(TO)、国内生产总值(GDP)、用电量(EC)和可再生能源(RE)容量之间的动态相互关系。使用向量自回归(VAR)框架,分析检查了这些宏观经济和能源变量的冲击如何与系统内的后续运动联系起来。柬埔寨提供了一个相关的案例,因为其经济快速扩张,电力需求上升,对外投资和贸易的敞口增加,以及可再生能源的逐步和不均衡扩张。结果表明,在预测期内,FDI、GDP和to的创新之后,EC和可再生能源的能力在统计上有显著的响应,反映了经济活动和能源动态之间的强烈共同运动。欧共体冲击同样与国内生产总值的中短期反应有关,突出了能源需求与经济波动之间的密切联系。可再生能源容量表现出更渐进和温和的响应,表明其在系统中的作用在样本期内仍然是支持性的,而不是主导的。方差分解结果进一步表明,经济变量的波动占能源相关变量预测误差方差的很大一部分。与此同时,可再生能源对经济指标变异性的贡献较小,但不可忽略。这些发现应该被解释为动态关联的证据,而不是结构性因果效应的证据。该研究提供了对发展较晚的能源进口经济体中宏观经济条件和能源变量如何共同演变的见解,为讨论协调挑战和未来研究方向提供了描述性基础,而不是规定政策结论。
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引用次数: 0
Lake ecosystem vulnerability across Southeast Asia from satellite observations 来自卫星观测的东南亚湖泊生态系统脆弱性
IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101109
Anjar Dimara Sakti , Syarif Hidayat , Tasya Ravida Ayu Padantya , Nadisha Nanda Alifia , Cokro Santoso , Tania Septi Anggraini , Lalu Muhamad Jaelani , Syarif Budhiman , Akhmad Riqqi
This study aims to develop a spatially scalable remote sensing framework for assessing and prioritizing lake ecosystem vulnerability across Southeast Asia. A novel Lake Ecosystem Index (LEI) is proposed by integrating a Human Pressure Index (HPI) and a Water Quality Index (WQI). The HPI was derived from land cover dynamics, including urban, agricultural, and forest changes, from 2000 to 2018, while the WQI was calculated using temporal trends of NDVI, turbidity (NDTI), and land surface temperature (LST) from 2018 to 2023. The framework was applied to 50 lakes distributed across Southeast Asia to enable comparative assessment at a regional scale. The results show that 46 % of the analyzed lakes exhibit very high vulnerability HPI scores, 16 % show very high vulnerability WQI scores, and 13 lakes fall into a high to very high vulnerability category based on combined LEI values. The proposed LEI provides a quantitative and integrative tool for identifying priority lakes requiring urgent management and restoration interventions. This study demonstrates the effectiveness of remote sensing indicators for informing policy-relevant freshwater management and advancing the monitoring of inland water ecosystems in support of UN SDG 6.6.
本研究旨在开发一个空间可扩展的遥感框架,用于评估和优先考虑东南亚湖泊生态系统的脆弱性。将人类压力指数(HPI)与水质指数(WQI)相结合,提出了一种新的湖泊生态系统指数(LEI)。HPI基于2000 - 2018年城市、农业和森林的土地覆盖动态变化,WQI基于2018 - 2023年NDVI、浊度(NDTI)和地表温度(LST)的时间趋势计算。该框架应用于分布在东南亚的50个湖泊,以便在区域尺度上进行比较评估。结果表明,46%的湖泊脆弱性HPI得分很高,16%的湖泊脆弱性WQI得分很高,13个湖泊在LEI综合值上属于高至极高的脆弱性类别。拟议的LEI为确定需要紧急管理和恢复干预措施的优先湖泊提供了一个定量和综合的工具。本研究证明了遥感指标在为与政策相关的淡水管理提供信息和推进内陆水生态系统监测方面的有效性,以支持联合国可持续发展目标6.6。
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引用次数: 0
Trading emissions, shaping ambitions: Understanding what drives carbon market intentions in Vietnam 交易排放,塑造雄心:了解越南碳市场意图的驱动因素
IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-29 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101110
Ngo Thanh Mai, Dinh Duc Truong, Le Huy Huan, Duong Duc Tam
As carbon markets emerge as critical instruments in climate policy, understanding what drives corporate participation becomes essential, particularly in developing countries undergoing regulatory transformation. This study investigates the determinants of carbon market participation intention among emission-intensive enterprises in Vietnam, a fast-growing economy establishing its domestic carbon trading scheme. Grounded in the Technology - Organization - Environment framework and Institutional Theory, the research develops a conceptual model encompassing technological perceptions, organizational readiness, and institutional pressures. The study also examines the mediating role of firms’ attitude toward carbon markets and the moderating effects of government support and industry association engagement. A structured survey of 338 enterprises across six high-emitting sectors was conducted. Data were analyzed using PLS-SEM. The results reveal that seven factors significantly influence carbon market participation intention, with perceived economic benefits, regulatory pressure, and reputation concern emerging as the most influential predictors. Attitude mediates several key relationships, particularly those involving economic, institutional, and cognitive factors. Furthermore, both government support and industry association engagement significantly moderate firm behavior, enhancing participation intentions under favorable institutional conditions. This study offers empirical evidence on the behavioral and institutional enablers of carbon market participation in the Global South. It contributes to the literature by integrating Technology - Organization - Environment and Institutional Theory frameworks in the context of carbon pricing and provides practical recommendations for regulators, industry associations, and enterprises. By highlighting both the opportunities and challenges firms face, the study informs the design of inclusive, context-specific carbon market policies aimed at accelerating private sector engagement in climate mitigation.
随着碳市场成为气候政策的关键工具,了解推动企业参与的因素变得至关重要,特别是在正在进行监管转型的发展中国家。本研究探讨了越南这个快速发展的经济体建立国内碳交易机制的排放密集型企业参与碳市场意愿的决定因素。在技术-组织-环境框架和制度理论的基础上,本研究建立了一个包含技术感知、组织准备和制度压力的概念模型。研究还考察了企业对碳市场态度的中介作用,以及政府支持和行业协会参与的调节作用。对6个高排放行业的338家企业进行了结构化调查。数据采用PLS-SEM进行分析。结果表明,7个因素显著影响碳市场参与意愿,其中感知经济利益、监管压力和声誉担忧是影响最大的预测因素。态度介导了几个关键的关系,特别是那些涉及经济、制度和认知因素的关系。此外,政府支持和行业协会参与均显著调节企业行为,在有利的制度条件下增强企业参与意愿。本研究为发展中国家参与碳市场的行为和制度因素提供了实证证据。通过整合碳定价背景下的技术-组织-环境和制度理论框架,对文献做出了贡献,并为监管机构、行业协会和企业提供了实用建议。通过强调企业面临的机遇和挑战,该研究为设计包容性的、针对具体情况的碳市场政策提供了信息,旨在加速私营部门参与减缓气候变化。
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引用次数: 0
Spatio-temporal evolution and driving mechanisms of rural resilience under ecological protection policies: A multi-scale analysis of technology-governance synergy in the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Green Heart, China 生态保护政策下乡村弹性的时空演化与驱动机制——基于长株潭绿心技术治理协同的多尺度分析
IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-26 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101091
Ping Zhang , Xuyang Yi , Hanwu Yu , Ting Li , Yan Mao
Exploring the dynamic evolution of rural resilience and its influencing factors in the background of ecological protection policies is of great significance for promoting comprehensive rural revitalization and achieving sustainable rural development in ecologically sensitive areas. This study takes 119 villages in 25 towns of the Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan Green Heart Area as the research objects, constructs a four-dimensional evaluation system of "economy-society-ecology -governance" based on the theoretical framework of "ecological protection policy-rural resilience," and analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution and driving factors of rural resilience under the impetus of ecological protection policies from 2003 to 2023. The study found: (1) Resilience exhibits the characteristics of a "three-stage leap-spatial bipolar reorganization," with the composite index rising from 0.127 to 0.428, and the spatial pattern shifting from a "central single-core" to a "northeast-southwest bipolar high-value" configuration, with smart agriculture coverage and village-level autonomous decision-making as the core driving forces; (2) The driving mechanism has undergone a transition from dependence on cultivated land resources, to technological penetration, and finally to technology-governance synergy, where, during the policy deepening period, technology penetration and governance decentralization formed a closed loop of "ecological restoration-industrial upgrading"; (3) Regional differences stem from the binary contradiction of "inter-city polarization-peripheral activation," with Changsha's siphon effect causing a resilience gradient gap of 0.27, while ecological protection policies, through spatial reorganization, increased the hypervariability density to 40.2 %, indicating that the traditional block-style governance framework of "three separate cities in Changsha-Zhuzhou-Xiangtan " has weakened, effectively activating the spatial interaction capacity of peripheral areas.
探讨生态保护政策背景下乡村韧性的动态演变及其影响因素,对于促进生态敏感区乡村全面振兴、实现乡村可持续发展具有重要意义。本研究以长株潭绿色心心区25个镇119个村为研究对象,基于“生态保护政策-乡村弹性”的理论框架,构建了“经济-社会-生态-治理”四维评价体系,分析了2003 - 2023年生态保护政策推动下乡村弹性的时空演变及其驱动因素。研究发现:(1)弹性呈现“三期跨越式空间双极重组”特征,综合指数由0.127上升至0.428,空间格局由“中央单一核心”向“东北-西南双极高值”格局转变,以智慧农业覆盖和村级自主决策为核心驱动力;②驱动机制经历了从耕地资源依赖到技术渗透再到技术治理协同的转变,其中,在政策深化时期,技术渗透与治理分权形成了“生态修复-产业升级”的闭环;(3)区域差异源于“城际极化-外围活化”的二元矛盾;其中,长沙的虹吸效应导致弹性梯度缺口为0.27,而生态保护政策通过空间重组使高变异性密度增加至40.2%,表明“长株潭三城”的传统片式治理框架弱化,有效激活了周边区域的空间互动能力。
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引用次数: 0
A multi-criteria decision analysis method for sustainability improvement of the hydropower megaproject system 大型水电工程系统可持续性改进的多准则决策分析方法
IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101106
Peiran Jing , Linlin Fan , Lidan Guo , Chenchen Wei , Jinbao Sheng , Kai Dong , Rui Zhu , Yong Liu , Qinyuan Li
The sustainable development of the hydropower megaproject (HM) is a vital component of watershed sustainable water resources management. Multiple measures should be taken to enhance the HM system's overall performance and sustainability when environmental changes disrupt it. Hence, making scientific and applicable decisions on various measures to improve the HM system's sustainability is a critical and complex problem. This study proposed a novel multi-criteria decision analysis method for sustainability improvement (MCDA-SI) of the HM system. The MCDA-SI method develops the multi-criteria evaluation indicator system, the Cloud-EM-AHP weight solution model, the comprehensive development index (CDI) model, and the coupling coordination degree (CCD) model. The Three Gorges Project (TGP) is selected as a case study, and the key measure to improve the TGP system's sustainability is determined. The results showed that from 2003 to 2023, the CDI of the TGP rose from 0.40 to 0.61, and the CCD indicated a fluctuating increasing trend with a mean value of 0.42, revealing that the TGP system's comprehensive development level and coupling coordination development degree are gradually improving. The sustainability assessment results indicate that the critical factors influencing the TGP system's sustainable coordinated development are flood control safety, resettlement compensation, biodiversity protection, and prevention of water pollution. The multi-criteria decision analysis results illustrated that optimizing the TGP's scheduling, operation, and management is the most effective measure for enhancing the system's sustainability, which aligns with the TGP's actual state. Compared to traditional MCDA technology for hydropower and reservoirs, this study integrates Cloud-EM-AHP, CDI, and CCD within a unified MCDA-SI model framework to enhance the applicability of the MCDA method in sustainable hydropower assessment and decision-making. Meanwhile, the novel MCDA-SI framework can serve as an evaluation index and provide policy insights for coordinating the protection of watershed ecological environments and sustainable hydropower development.
特大水电工程的可持续发展是流域水资源可持续管理的重要组成部分。当环境变化破坏HM系统时,应采取多种措施来提高HM系统的整体性能和可持续性。因此,对提高HM系统可持续性的各种措施做出科学、适用的决策是一个关键而复杂的问题。本文提出了一种新的多准则可持续发展决策分析方法(MCDA-SI)。MCDA-SI方法建立了多准则评价指标体系、Cloud-EM-AHP权解模型、综合发展指数(CDI)模型和耦合协调度(CCD)模型。以三峡工程为例,确定了提高三峡工程系统可持续性的关键措施。结果表明:2003 - 2023年,三峡库区CDI由0.40上升至0.61,CCD呈波动上升趋势,平均值为0.42,表明三峡库区系统综合发展水平和耦合协调发展程度逐步提高。可持续性评价结果表明,影响三峡工程系统可持续协调发展的关键因素是防洪安全、移民补偿、生物多样性保护和水污染防治。多准则决策分析结果表明,优化三峡工程调度、运行和管理是提高系统可持续性的最有效措施,符合三峡工程的实际情况。与传统的水电和水库MCDA技术相比,本研究将Cloud-EM-AHP、CDI和CCD集成在统一的MCDA- si模型框架内,增强了MCDA方法在水电可持续评价和决策中的适用性。同时,新的MCDA-SI框架可作为流域生态环境保护与水电可持续发展协调的评价指标和政策见解。
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引用次数: 0
Multi-perspective assessment of ecological civilization progress across cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt 长江经济带城市生态文明建设多视角评价
IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101107
Li Ma, Huiyuan Zhang, Qing Lu
Ecological civilization, China's national strategy, promotes sustainable development through green growth, harmony between humans and nature, and improved well-being. The Yangtze River Economic Belt (YREB), with diverse urban trajectories, plays a key role in this goal. However, conventional static indices fail to capture dynamic changes, goal deviations, and multidimensional linkages. While the SDGs set ambitious targets, they lack explicit benchmarks, and current evaluation methods, relying on subjective or static data structures, limit goal-oriented assessments. Based on multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) theory, this study integrates multi-source data to create a multidimensional indicator system for ecological environment (EE), ecological economy (EEC), ecological living (EL), and ecological framework (EF). An ecological civilization profile is developed using the mean-trend-fluctuation method. Dynamic weighting is achieved through K-means, hierarchical clustering, SOM, and machine learning models (RF, SVM, CatBoost). The goal-oriented S-P-G (Status-Progress-Gap) framework evaluates 108 YREB cities (2013–2022), identifies development stages, reveals spatial patterns via Getis-Ord Gi∗, and quantifies indicator contributions using RF-SHAP. Results show that the SI increased from 65 in 2013 to 70 in 2022, the PI rose rapidly (average annual growth >8 % in 2014–2017) before stabilizing with a −4.84 % drop in 2020, and the GI declined from 38.9 % to 27.0 %. The “east-high-west-low” pattern was observed, with provincial capitals catching up (PI > 55 by 2022). RF-SHAP analysis shows EEC drives SI, EL enhances PI and narrows GI, while EE is a bottleneck in advanced cities. Based on these findings, we offer differentiated policy recommendations tailored to cities at various development stages.
生态文明是中国的国家战略,旨在通过绿色发展、人与自然和谐发展、增进人民福祉,推动可持续发展。长江经济带以其多样化的城市发展轨迹,在实现这一目标方面发挥着关键作用。然而,传统的静态指标无法捕捉动态变化、目标偏差和多维联系。虽然可持续发展目标设定了雄心勃勃的目标,但它们缺乏明确的基准,目前的评估方法依赖于主观或静态数据结构,限制了以目标为导向的评估。本研究基于多准则决策(MCDM)理论,整合多源数据,构建了生态环境(EE)、生态经济(EEC)、生态生活(EL)和生态框架(EF)的多维指标体系。采用平均趋势波动法绘制了生态文明剖面图。动态加权是通过K-means、分层聚类、SOM和机器学习模型(RF、SVM、CatBoost)实现的。以目标为导向的S-P-G(现状-进展-差距)框架评估了108个YREB城市(2013-2022年),确定了发展阶段,通过Getis-Ord Gi∗揭示了空间格局,并使用RF-SHAP量化了指标贡献。结果表明,SI从2013年的65上升到2022年的70,PI快速上升(2014-2017年年均增长>; 8%),然后趋于稳定,到2020年下降- 4.84%,GI从38.9%下降到27.0%。观察到“东高西低”的模式,省会城市正在追赶(到2022年为55)。RF-SHAP分析表明,EEC驱动SI, EL提高PI并缩小GI,而EE是先进城市的瓶颈。基于这些发现,我们针对不同发展阶段的城市提出了差异化的政策建议。
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引用次数: 0
Assessing the spatio-temporal impacts of digital economy drivers on carbon emission intensity: An interactive geographically and temporally weighted regression framework 数字经济驱动因素对碳排放强度的时空影响评估:一个地理和时间加权的交互式回归框架
IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101104
Huiqing Dai , Luanyun Hu , Xiaoye Zhu , Panyue Zhang , Yuwei Wang , Xiaoling Guo
This study aims to precisely quantify the spatio-temporal impacts of specific digital economy (DE) drivers and their interactions on carbon emission intensity (CEI) across China. Utilizing a panel dataset from 30 Chinese provinces (2011–2022), this study first constructs a comprehensive composite digital economy index. The core of the methodology is a novel interactive geographically and temporally weighted regression model, which integrates interaction factors identified by the optimal parameter geographical detector into the geographically and temporally weighted regression model. The results indicate that (1) Among DE driving factors, software business revenue and enterprise R&D expenditure intensity exert the strongest explanatory power on CEI. (2) Interactions between DE driving factors augment their individual effects, with the interaction between proportion of digital industry employees and per capita telecommunication business volume exhibiting the strongest explanatory power. (3) The impacts of DE driving factors and their interactions on CEI exhibit pronounced spatial heterogeneity. Interactions between factors induce nonlinear changes in their individual effects, mainly reflected in the direction, intensity, and spatial scope of their impacts on CEI. These findings provide critical and actionable insights for designing regionally differentiated policies, enabling policymakers to harness the synergistic potential of the digital economy for targeted carbon mitigation, thereby supporting the achievement of China's “Dual Carbon” goals.
本研究旨在精确量化中国特定数字经济驱动因素及其相互作用对碳排放强度的时空影响。利用2011-2022年中国30个省份的面板数据,本文首先构建了综合数字经济指数。该方法的核心是一种新的地理与时间加权交互回归模型,该模型将最优参数地理检测器识别的交互因素整合到地理与时间加权回归模型中。结果表明:(1)在企业创新能力驱动因素中,软件业务收入和企业研发支出强度对企业创新能力的解释力最强。(2) DE驱动因素之间的交互作用增强了其个体效应,其中数字产业员工比例与人均电信业务量之间的交互作用解释力最强。(3) DE驱动因子及其相互作用对CEI的影响具有明显的空间异质性。因子间的相互作用导致个体效应的非线性变化,主要体现在影响CEI的方向、强度和空间范围上。这些研究结果为制定区域差异化政策提供了关键和可操作的见解,使决策者能够利用数字经济的协同潜力进行有针对性的碳减排,从而支持中国实现“双碳”目标。
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引用次数: 0
Cross-sensitivity of ecosystem services to land use change in China's poverty-stricken areas 中国贫困地区生态系统服务功能对土地利用变化的交叉敏感性
IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101105
Jiale Liang , Sipei Pan , Nan Xia , Wanxu Chen , Manchun Li
Contiguous poverty-stricken areas commonly face dual pressures of ecological conservation and economic development. Land use change may lead to ecological degradation, which in turn may exacerbate poverty. Understanding how ecosystem services respond to land use change is crucial to mitigate the vicious cycle between poverty and ecological fragility. Therefore, this study focuses on 680 counties within China's contiguous poverty-stricken areas. Using remote sensing and statistical data, we employed a cross-sensitivity method to quantify county-level ecosystem services response to land use change from 1980 to 2020. Results revealed that the most dramatic change in China's contiguous poverty-stricken areas was the interconversion between agricultural production land (APL) and pasture ecological land (PEL). The transition from PEL to APL inhibited the growth of ecosystem services value (ESV). Overall, ESV initially declined before increasing, resulting in a net gain of US$11.04 billion. Cross-sensitivity analysis showed that sensitivity coefficients in 2000–2020 were generally lower than those in 1980–2000, especially for transitions among ecological land types. ESV was more sensitive to the transition from APL to ecological land and to transitions occurring within ecological land. Changes in APL had the greatest impact on ESV. Transitions from industrial and mining land (IML) to other land types tended to enhance ESV, whereas transition from forest ecological land (FEL) to other land types resulted in substantial ESV losses. Spatial zoning further revealed strong clustering patterns of ecological sensitivity, with highly sensitive areas concentrated east of the Hu Line and extensive no-net change areas on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. These findings provide a scientific basis for improving land use management and enhancing ecosystem functions in poverty-stricken areas.
连片特困地区普遍面临生态保护和经济发展的双重压力。土地利用变化可能导致生态退化,而生态退化又可能加剧贫困。了解生态系统服务如何响应土地利用变化,对于缓解贫困与生态脆弱性之间的恶性循环至关重要。因此,本研究以中国连片特困地区的680个县为研究对象。利用遥感和统计数据,采用交叉敏感性方法定量分析了1980—2020年县域生态系统服务对土地利用变化的响应。结果表明,中国连片特困地区变化最剧烈的是农业生产用地(APL)与牧场生态用地(PEL)的相互转化。从PEL到APL的转变抑制了生态系统服务价值(ESV)的增长。总体而言,ESV最初下降,然后增加,导致净收益110.4亿美元。交叉敏感性分析表明,2000-2020年的敏感性系数普遍低于1980-2000年,特别是生态土地类型之间的转换。ESV对从APL到生态地的过渡以及生态地内部的过渡更为敏感。APL的变化对ESV的影响最大。工矿用地向其他土地类型的过渡倾向于增强生态环境价值,而森林生态用地向其他土地类型的过渡则导致生态环境价值的大量损失。空间分区进一步显示出较强的生态敏感性集聚格局,高敏感区集中在胡线以东,无净变化区分布广泛。研究结果为改善贫困地区土地利用管理和增强生态系统功能提供了科学依据。
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引用次数: 0
Evaluating the impacts of wetland degradation on watershed hydrology: Implications for Eco-hydrological Restoration of Gojeb River sub basin, Ethiopia 湿地退化对流域水文的影响评价:对埃塞俄比亚Gojeb河流域生态水文恢复的启示
IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101103
Wakjira Takala Dibaba , Eyasu Tafese Mekuria , Bereket Abera Bedada , Bikila Takala Dibaba , Wakene Negassa
Combined human and climate pressures have led to significant changes in the spatial distribution and extent of wetlands, disrupting associated ecosystem services in Ethiopia. Nonetheless, the hydrological effects of wetland loss are still poorly understood across most of Ethiopia's river basins. This study aimed to analyse the long-term hydrological impacts of wetland loss in the Gojeb River sub-basin and evaluate wetland management interventions in restoring key eco-hydrological processes using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Following the calibration and validation of historical streamflow records, the SWAT model was used to examine three primary scenarios: land use/land cover (LU/LC), wetland loss, and wetland restoration scenarios. The decline in wetland area between 2000 and 2024, led to a 2.3 % decline of groundwater recharge, while surface runoff and sediment yield increased by 8.5 % and 27.7 %, respectively. An extreme flow study revealed a flashier regime with greater peak flows at the same exceedance probability, implying a higher flood risk. Wetland degradation represented a significant trade-off, sacrificing short-term land gain for long-term vulnerability to flooding, erosion, and groundwater depletion. In contrast, wetland restoration has been shown to restore hydrological systems while decreasing sediment output. Wetland restoration, therefore, is an important strategy not only for ecological conservation but also for long-term water resource management, climate change adaptation, and local livelihood protection. The results highlight the importance of wetlands in maintaining hydrological stability, reducing the danger of erosion and floods, and supporting several other ecosystem services.
人类和气候的双重压力导致了湿地空间分布和范围的显著变化,破坏了埃塞俄比亚相关的生态系统服务。尽管如此,人们对埃塞俄比亚大部分河流流域湿地损失的水文影响仍然知之甚少。本研究旨在分析Gojeb河流域湿地损失的长期水文影响,并利用水土评估工具(SWAT)评估湿地管理干预措施在恢复关键生态水文过程中的作用。在对历史流量记录进行校准和验证之后,利用SWAT模型研究了三种主要情景:土地利用/土地覆盖(LU/LC)、湿地损失和湿地恢复情景。2000 - 2024年湿地面积减少,地下水补给减少2.3%,地表径流和产沙分别增加8.5%和27.7%。一项极端流量研究表明,在相同的超过概率下,峰值流量更大的闪光状态意味着更高的洪水风险。湿地退化是一种重要的权衡,以牺牲短期土地收益换取长期易受洪水、侵蚀和地下水枯竭影响的脆弱性。相比之下,湿地恢复已被证明在减少沉积物输出的同时恢复水文系统。因此,湿地恢复不仅是生态保护的重要战略,也是长期水资源管理、气候变化适应和当地生计保护的重要战略。研究结果强调了湿地在维持水文稳定、减少侵蚀和洪水危险以及支持其他几种生态系统服务方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Relationship between GDP, FDI, renewable energy, trade openness, innovation, and CO2 in Slovakia: New insights from ARDL methodology 斯洛伐克国内生产总值、外国直接投资、可再生能源、贸易开放、创新和二氧化碳的关系:来自ARDL方法的新见解
IF 5.6 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES Pub Date : 2025-12-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.indic.2025.101102
Thi Lan Anh Nguyen , Huong Giang Luong , Vu Ngoc Xuan
This paper examines the dynamic and long-term relationships between real gross domestic product (GDP), foreign direct investment (FDI), renewable energy consumption (RE), trade openness (TO), innovation (INN), and carbon dioxide emissions (CO2) in Slovakia. Using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and error correction modelling, we explore whether clean energy and innovation can decouple growth from emissions in a small open European economy integrated into global value chains. Annual data are modelled with careful attention to lag selection, structural breaks, persistence, and endogeneity. We complement baseline ARDL with robustness checks (dynamic ARDL simulations, FMOLS/DOLS, and Toda–Yamamoto causality). The results template indicates: (i) a cointegrating relationship among the variables; (ii) in the long run, RE and INN are associated with lower CO2 intensity, while TO and FDI exert mixed effects depending on composition and technological spillovers; and (iii) short-run dynamics are dominated by adjustment toward equilibrium with moderate speed of correction. We discuss the policy implications for Slovakia's green transition in light of its EU climate targets.
本文研究了斯洛伐克实际国内生产总值(GDP)、外国直接投资(FDI)、可再生能源消费(RE)、贸易开放(TO)、创新(INN)和二氧化碳排放(CO2)之间的动态和长期关系。利用协整和误差修正模型的自回归分布滞后(ARDL)边界检验方法,我们探讨了清洁能源和创新是否可以将融入全球价值链的小型开放欧洲经济体的增长与排放脱钩。对年度数据进行建模时要注意滞后选择、结构断裂、持续性和内生性。我们用鲁棒性检查(动态ARDL模拟、FMOLS/DOLS和Toda-Yamamoto因果关系)来补充基线ARDL。结果模板表明:(1)各变量之间存在协整关系;(2)从长期来看,可再生能源和新兴产业与较低的二氧化碳强度相关,而外商直接投资和外商直接投资的影响则因其构成和技术溢出而不同;(3)短期动态以中等修正速度的均衡调整为主。我们根据欧盟气候目标讨论斯洛伐克绿色转型的政策影响。
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引用次数: 0
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Environmental and Sustainability Indicators
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