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Evaluating User Engagement in Online News: A Deep Learning Approach Based on Attractiveness and Multiple Features 评估用户在网络新闻中的参与度:基于吸引力和多重特征的深度学习方法
IF 1.9 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-07-30 DOI: 10.3390/systems12080274
Guohui Song, Yongbin Wang, Xiaosen Chen, Hongbin Hu, Fan Liu
Online news platforms have become users’ primary information sources. However, they focus on attracting users to click on the news and ignore whether the news triggers a sense of engagement, which could potentially reduce users’ participation in public events. Therefore, this study constructs four indicators by assessing user engagement to build an intelligent system to help platforms optimize their publishing strategies. First, this study defines user engagement evaluation as a classification task that divides user engagement into four indicators and proposes an extended LDA model based on user click–comment behavior (UCCB), using which the attractiveness of words in news headlines and content can be effectively represented. Second, this study proposes a deep user engagement evaluation (DUEE) model that integrates news attractiveness and multiple features in an attention-based deep neural network for user engagement evaluation. The DUEE model considers various elements that collectively determine the ability of the news to attract clicks and engagement. Third, the proposed model is compared with the baseline and state-of-the-art techniques, showing that it outperforms all existing methods. This study provides new research contributions and ideas for improving user engagement in online news evaluation.
网络新闻平台已成为用户的主要信息来源。然而,它们只注重吸引用户点击新闻,而忽视了新闻是否引发了用户的参与感,这有可能降低用户对公共事件的参与度。因此,本研究通过评估用户参与度构建了四个指标,以构建一个智能系统,帮助平台优化其发布策略。首先,本研究将用户参与度评估定义为一项分类任务,将用户参与度分为四个指标,并提出了基于用户点击-评论行为(UCCB)的扩展 LDA 模型,利用该模型可以有效地表示新闻标题和内容中词语的吸引力。其次,本研究提出了一种深度用户参与度评价(DUEE)模型,将新闻吸引力和多种特征整合到基于注意力的深度神经网络中,用于用户参与度评价。DUEE 模型考虑了各种因素,这些因素共同决定了新闻吸引点击和参与的能力。第三,将所提出的模型与基线和最先进的技术进行了比较,结果表明该模型优于所有现有方法。这项研究为提高网络新闻评估中的用户参与度提供了新的研究成果和思路。
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引用次数: 0
A Pricing Model Study of Shared Parking Area Charge Based on Game Theory 基于博弈论的共享停车区域收费定价模型研究
IF 1.9 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-07-27 DOI: 10.3390/systems12080269
Chao Sun, Haodong Jing, Haowei Yin
In this study, a tripartite decision-making parking pricing model was developed based on Game Theory to comprehensively reflect the impact of parking pricing on private car travelers, parking lot operators, and traffic managers. Utility theory is introduced to analyze the behavioral characteristics of the tripartite participants in parking pricing. A parking behavior model for private car travelers, an operating profit model for parking lot operators, and a social negative utility model for traffic managers are established. This article presents an analysis of the mutual influence between them based on a game theory perspective and introduces parking saturation and road saturation as new factors influencing parking pricing to address the interactive relationship among the tripartite participants. A parking pricing model based on tripartite games is established, and a solution algorithm is designed. The results indicate that when the parking fee rates for the two public parking lots in the scenario are 8.5 CNY/h and 9 CNY/h, respectively, the parking demand is 300, and the sum of the total travel costs of private car travelers and the total operating profits are CNY 20,589 and 2187.9, respectively. The parking saturation of the public parking lot and the difference between the expected value is minimized to 0.25, and the road saturation and the difference between the expected value are minimized to 1.48, which is the parking pricing plan that minimizes the conflicts of interest among the tripartite stakeholders in the tripartite game. The parking pricing model of a public parking lot provides a reference for formulating parking fee strategies that comprehensively reflect the needs of the three parties involved in the public parking lot.
本研究以博弈论为基础,建立了停车定价三方决策模型,以全面反映停车定价对私家车出行者、停车场经营者和交通管理者的影响。引入效用理论分析停车定价三方参与者的行为特征。建立了私家车出行者的停车行为模型、停车场经营者的经营利润模型和交通管理者的社会负效用模型。本文基于博弈论的视角分析了它们之间的相互影响,并引入停车饱和度和道路饱和度作为影响停车定价的新因素,以解决三方参与者之间的互动关系。建立了基于三方博弈的停车定价模型,并设计了求解算法。结果表明,当情景中两个公共停车场的停车费率分别为 8.5 元/小时和 9 元/小时时,停车需求为 300,私家车出行者的总出行成本和总经营利润之和分别为 20589 元和 2187.9 元。公共停车场的停车饱和度与期望值之差最小为 0.25,道路饱和度与期望值之差最小为 1.48,是三方博弈中三方利益相关者利益冲突最小的停车定价方案。公共停车场的停车定价模型为制定全面反映公共停车场三方需求的停车收费策略提供了参考。
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引用次数: 0
Feature Distributions of Technologies 技术的特征分布
IF 1.9 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-07-26 DOI: 10.3390/systems12080268
Jiannan Zhu, Chao Deng, Jiaofeng Pan, Fu Gu, Jianfeng Guo
In this study, we propose a big data-based method for characterizing the feature distributions of multiple technologies within a specific domain. Traditional approaches, such as Gartner’s hype cycle or S-curve model, portray the developmental trajectory of individual technologies. However, these approaches are insufficient to encapsulate the aggregate characteristic distribution of multiple technologies within a specific domain. Thus, this study proposes an innovative method in terms of four proposed features, namely versatility, significance, commerciality, and disruptiveness, to characterize the technologies within a given domain. The research methodology involves that the features of technologies are quantitively portrayed using the representative keywords and volumes of returned search results from Google and Google Scholar in two-dimensional analytical spaces of technique and application. We demonstrate the applicability of this method using 452 technologies in the domain of intelligent robotics. The results of our assessment indicate that the versatility values are normally distributed, while the values of significance, commerciality, and disruptiveness follow power-law distributions, in which few technologies possess higher feature values. We also show that significant technologies are more likely to be commercialized or cause potential disruption, as such technologies have higher scores in these features. Further, we validly prove the robustness of our approach by comparing historical trends with the literature and characterizing technologies in reduced analytical spaces. Our method can be widely applied in analyzing feature distributions of technologies in different domains, and it can potentially be exploited in decisions like investment, trade, and science policy.
在本研究中,我们提出了一种基于大数据的方法,用于描述特定领域内多种技术的特征分布。传统方法,如 Gartner 的炒作周期或 S 曲线模型,描绘了单项技术的发展轨迹。然而,这些方法不足以概括特定领域内多种技术的总体特征分布。因此,本研究提出了一种创新方法,即通过四个拟议特征(即通用性、重要性、商业性和颠覆性)来描述特定领域内的技术特征。研究方法包括在技术和应用的二维分析空间中,利用谷歌和谷歌学术搜索结果中的代表性关键词和返回量,对技术特征进行量化描述。我们使用智能机器人领域的 452 项技术演示了这一方法的适用性。我们的评估结果表明,通用性值呈正态分布,而重要性、商业性和破坏性值则呈幂律分布,其中很少有技术拥有较高的特征值。我们还表明,重要技术更有可能商业化或造成潜在破坏,因为这类技术在这些特征上的得分更高。此外,我们还将历史趋势与文献进行了比较,并在缩小的分析空间中对技术进行了特征描述,从而有效证明了我们方法的稳健性。我们的方法可广泛应用于分析不同领域技术的特征分布,并有可能在投资、贸易和科学政策等决策中加以利用。
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引用次数: 0
A Novel Risk Assessment Approach for Open-Cast Coal Mines Using Hybrid MCDM Models with Interval Type-2 Fuzzy Sets: A Case Study in Türkiye 使用带有区间 2 型模糊集的混合 MCDM 模型对露天煤矿进行风险评估的新方法:土耳其案例研究
IF 1.9 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-07-25 DOI: 10.3390/systems12080267
Mert Mutlu, Nazli Ceren Cetin, Seyhan Onder
Mining is a high-risk industry where occupational accidents are common due to its complex nature. Therefore, providing a more holistic and dynamic risk assessment framework is essential to identify and minimize the potential risks and enhance safety measures. Unfortunately, traditional risk assessment methods have limitations and shortcomings, such as uncertainty, differences in experience backgrounds, and insufficiency to articulate the opinions of experts. In this paper, a novel risk assessment method precisely for such cases in the mining sector is proposed, applied, and compared with traditional methods. The objective of this study is to determine the risk scores of Turkish Coal Enterprises, based on non-fatal occupational accidents, which operates eight large-scale open-cast coal mine enterprises in Türkiye. The causes of the accidents were categorized into 25 sub-criteria under 6 main criteria. The risk scores for these criteria were computed using the Pythagorean fuzzy Analytical Hierarchy Process (PFAHP) method. The first shift (8–16 h) (0.6341) for the shift category is ranked highest out of the 25 sub-risk factors, followed by maintenance personnel (0.5633) for the occupation category; the open-cast mining area (0.5524) for the area category, the 45–57 age range (0.5279) for employee age category, and the mining machine (0.4247) for the reason category, respectively. The methodologies proposed in this study not only identify the most important risk factors in enterprises, but also provide a mechanism for risk-based rankings of enterprises by their calculated risk scores. The enterprises were risk-based ranked with the fuzzy Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (FTOPSIS) method and Paksoy approach based on interval type-2 fuzzy sets (IT2FSs). The findings indicate that the first three risk score rankings of enterprises are the same for both approaches. To examine the consistency of the applied methods, sensitivity analyses were performed. The results of the study also indicate that the proposed approaches are recommended for effective use in the mining sector due to their ease of application compared to other methods and their dynamic nature in the risk assessment process.
采矿业是一个高风险行业,由于其复杂性,职业事故频发。因此,提供一个更加全面和动态的风险评估框架对于识别和最大限度地降低潜在风险以及加强安全措施至关重要。遗憾的是,传统的风险评估方法存在局限性和缺陷,如不确定性、经验背景差异、专家意见表达不充分等。本文提出了一种新型风险评估方法,该方法正是针对采矿业中的此类情况而设计、应用的,并与传统方法进行了比较。本研究的目的是根据土耳其八家大型露天煤矿企业发生的非致命职业事故,确定土耳其煤炭企业的风险分数。事故原因被分为 6 个主要标准下的 25 个次级标准。采用毕达哥拉斯模糊层次分析法(PFAHP)计算了这些标准的风险分数。在 25 个子风险因素中,班次类别中的第一班(8-16 小时)(0.6341)排名最高,其次分别是职业类别中的维修人员(0.5633)、区域类别中的露天采矿区(0.5524)、员工年龄类别中的 45-57 岁(0.5279)和原因类别中的采矿机(0.4247)。本研究提出的方法不仅可以识别企业中最重要的风险因素,还提供了一种通过计算风险得分对企业进行风险排序的机制。采用与理想解相似的模糊排序偏好技术(FTOPSIS)方法和基于区间型-2 模糊集(IT2FSs)的 Paksoy 方法对企业进行了基于风险的排序。研究结果表明,两种方法对企业的前三个风险得分排名是相同的。为了检验两种方法的一致性,还进行了敏感性分析。研究结果还表明,与其他方法相比,拟议的方法易于应用,而且在风险评估过程中具有动态性质,因此建议在采矿业中有效使用这些方法。
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引用次数: 0
Cold Chain Logistics and Joint Distribution: A Review of Fresh Logistics Modes 冷链物流与联合配送:生鲜物流模式综述
IF 1.9 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.3390/systems12070264
Huaixia Shi, Qinglei Zhang, Jiyun Qin
With the continuous development of the global logistics industry, cold chain transportation and joint distribution, as critical strategies in supply chain management, are gradually becoming key means to ensure the safe transportation of perishable goods, pharmaceuticals, and other temperature-sensitive commodities. The present study is dedicated to an in-depth exploration of cold chain logistics and joint distribution, with a particular focus on a review of fresh food logistics modes, aiming to comprehensively understand their operational modes, advantages, challenges, and future development trends. The present study elucidates the basic concepts of fresh food logistics and underscores its significance in supply chain management. Through comparative analysis of different operational modes, it reveals their advantages in enhancing efficiency, reducing costs, and mitigating environmental impacts. The present study focuses on the operational mode of joint distribution, discussing its application in cold chain logistics and its differences from traditional logistics modes. Through case studies and empirical analysis, it evaluates the impact of joint distribution on logistics efficiency and costs, as well as its potential to enhance transportation efficiency and reduce carbon emissions. Lastly, the present study provides an outlook on the future development trends of cold chain logistics and joint distribution, discussing the influences of technological innovation, policy support, and industry collaboration and offering recommendations and prospects to drive the sustained development of the industry. Through a comprehensive summary of fresh food logistics, cold chain logistics operational modes, and joint distribution operational modes, this paper aims to provide in-depth theoretical support and practical guidance for related research and practices.
随着全球物流业的不断发展,冷链运输和联合配送作为供应链管理的重要战略,逐渐成为确保易腐货物、药品和其他温度敏感商品安全运输的关键手段。本研究致力于对冷链物流和联合配送进行深入探讨,尤其侧重于对生鲜食品物流模式的回顾,旨在全面了解其运作模式、优势、挑战和未来发展趋势。本研究阐明了生鲜食品物流的基本概念,强调了其在供应链管理中的重要意义。通过对不同运作模式的比较分析,揭示了它们在提高效率、降低成本和减轻环境影响方面的优势。本研究侧重于联合配送的运作模式,讨论其在冷链物流中的应用及其与传统物流模式的区别。通过案例研究和实证分析,本研究评估了联合配送对物流效率和成本的影响,以及其在提高运输效率和减少碳排放方面的潜力。最后,本研究对冷链物流和联合配送的未来发展趋势进行了展望,探讨了技术创新、政策支持和行业合作的影响因素,并提出了推动行业持续发展的建议和展望。本文通过对生鲜食品物流、冷链物流运作模式和联合配送运作模式的全面总结,旨在为相关研究和实践提供深入的理论支持和实践指导。
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引用次数: 0
Integrated Optimization of Route and Frequency for Rail Transit Feeder Buses under the Influence of Shared Motorcycles 共享电单车影响下轨道交通接驳巴士线路和班次的综合优化
IF 1.9 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-07-22 DOI: 10.3390/systems12070263
Jing Cai, Zhuoqi Li, Sihui Long
In this paper, we develop a multi-objective integrated optimization method for feeder buses of rail transit based on realistic considerations. We propose a bus stop selection method that considers the influence of shared motorcycles, which can score the importance of alternative bus stops and select those with the highest scores as objectives. The objective of the model in this paper is to minimize both the travel costs of passengers and the operating costs of the bus company. This is achieved by optimizing feeder bus routes, the frequency of departures, and interchange discounts to enhance the connectivity between feeder buses and rail transit. In addition, to ensure the feasibility of generated routes in the real road network, a genetic algorithm encoded with priority is used to solve this model. We use the Xingyao Road subway station in Kunming as an example, and the results show that the optimization method is effective.
本文基于现实考虑,为轨道交通的接驳巴士开发了一种多目标综合优化方法。我们提出了一种考虑共享摩托车影响的公交站点选择方法,它可以对备选公交站点的重要性进行评分,并选择得分最高的站点作为目标。本文模型的目标是最大限度地降低乘客的出行成本和公交公司的运营成本。为此,需要优化接驳巴士线路、发车频率和换乘折扣,以加强接驳巴士与轨道交通之间的连接。此外,为确保生成的线路在实际路网中的可行性,该模型采用了优先级编码遗传算法来求解。我们以昆明兴耀路地铁站为例,结果表明该优化方法是有效的。
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引用次数: 0
Optimizing Maintenance Resource Scheduling and Site Selection for Urban Metro Systems: A Multi-Objective Approach to Enhance System Resilience 优化城市地铁系统的维护资源调度和站点选择:增强系统弹性的多目标方法
IF 1.9 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-07-21 DOI: 10.3390/systems12070262
Lingyi Tang, Shiqi Chen, Qiming Li
This study developed an optimization model for the strategic location of maintenance resource supply sites and the scheduling of multiple resources following failures in urban metro systems, with the objective of enhancing system resilience. The model employs a multi-objective optimization framework, focusing primarily on minimizing resource scheduling time and reducing costs. It incorporates critical factors such as spatial location, network topology, station size, and passenger flow. A hybrid method, combining the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm III and the technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution, is used to solve the model, with its effectiveness confirmed through a case study of the Nanjing Metro system. The simulation results yielded an optimal number of 21 maintenance resource supply stations and provided their placement. In the event of large-scale failures, the optimal resource scheduling strategy ensures demand satisfaction rates exceed 90% at critical stations, maintaining an overall rate of 87.09%, therefore significantly improving resource scheduling efficiency and the system’s emergency response capabilities and enhancing the physical resilience and recovery capabilities of the urban metro system. Moreover, the model accounts for economic factors, striving to balance emergency response capabilities with production continuity and cost efficiency through effective maintenance strategies and resource utilization. This approach provides a systematic framework for urban metro systems to manage sudden failures, ensuring rapid recovery to normal operations and minimizing operational disruptions in scenarios of limited resources.
本研究为城市地铁系统故障后维护资源供应点的战略位置和多种资源的调度开发了一个优化模型,目的是提高系统的恢复能力。该模型采用了多目标优化框架,主要侧重于最大限度地减少资源调度时间和降低成本。它包含了空间位置、网络拓扑结构、车站规模和客流量等关键因素。该模型采用了非支配排序遗传算法 III 和理想解相似度排序技术相结合的混合方法进行求解,并通过南京地铁系统的案例研究证实了该方法的有效性。模拟结果得出了 21 个维修资源供应站的最佳数量,并提供了它们的位置。在大规模故障情况下,最优资源调度策略确保关键站点的需求满足率超过 90%,总体满足率保持在 87.09%,从而显著提高了资源调度效率和系统的应急响应能力,增强了城市地铁系统的物理弹性和恢复能力。此外,该模型还考虑了经济因素,通过有效的维护策略和资源利用,努力实现应急响应能力与生产连续性和成本效益之间的平衡。这种方法为城市地铁系统管理突发故障提供了一个系统框架,可确保在资源有限的情况下迅速恢复正常运营,并最大限度地减少运营中断。
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引用次数: 0
Enhancing Inventory Management through Safety-Stock Strategies—A Case Study 通过安全库存战略加强库存管理--案例研究
IF 1.9 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-07-20 DOI: 10.3390/systems12070260
Sema Demiray Kırmızı, Zeynep Ceylan, Serol Bulkan
Efficient inventory management, including optimal safety-stock levels, is crucial for operational continuity and cost-effectiveness in various industries. This study seeks the optimal inventory management strategy to minimize costs and determine ideal safety-stock levels. It compares five approaches: the company’s (STAR) current “number of days” method, two alternative models from the literature (the theory of constraints (TOC) replenishment model and the service-level approach), and two newly developed hybrid methodologies (the TOC replenishment model with ABC–XYZ classification and the service-level approach with ABC–XYZ classification). The analysis focused on financial performance, considering inventory holding and shortage costs. Monthly production plans were established and fixed as constant based on predetermined optimum month-end inventory levels derived from each method. Through simulation, actual month-end inventory levels were assessed, comparing total inventory costs (TICs). While unit holding costs (UHCs) were documented in financial records in the company, unit shortage costs (USCs) were not; thus, USCs were examined in three scenarios. The results show that the second proposed hybrid model consistently outperformed the other four methods, including the company’s current approach, significantly reducing TIC. The analysis emphasizes the importance of demand variation in setting safety stocks and demonstrates the second hybrid methodology’s effectiveness in optimizing safety-stock strategies and improving overall inventory management efficiency.
高效的库存管理,包括最佳安全库存水平,对各行各业的运营连续性和成本效益至关重要。本研究寻求最佳库存管理策略,以最大限度地降低成本,并确定理想的安全库存水平。它比较了五种方法:公司(STAR)目前的 "天数 "方法、文献中的两种替代模型(约束理论(TOC)补货模型和服务水平方法)以及两种新开发的混合方法(带有 ABC-XYZ 分类的 TOC 补货模型和带有 ABC-XYZ 分类的服务水平方法)。分析的重点是财务绩效,同时考虑库存持有成本和短缺成本。根据每种方法预先确定的最佳月末库存水平,制定了月度生产计划,并将其固定为常数。通过模拟,对月末实际库存水平进行了评估,并比较了总库存成本(TIC)。公司的财务记录中记录了单位持有成本(UHC),但没有记录单位短缺成本(USC);因此,在三种情况下对单位短缺成本进行了检查。结果表明,第二种建议的混合模型始终优于其他四种方法,包括该公司目前的方法,大大降低了 TIC。分析强调了需求变化在设定安全库存中的重要性,并证明了第二种混合方法在优化安全库存策略和提高整体库存管理效率方面的有效性。
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引用次数: 0
XGBoost-B-GHM: An Ensemble Model with Feature Selection and GHM Loss Function Optimization for Credit Scoring XGBoost-B-GHM:针对信用评分的特征选择和 GHM 损失函数优化集合模型
IF 1.9 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-07-14 DOI: 10.3390/systems12070254
Yuxuan Xia, Shanshan Jiang, Lingyi Meng, Xin Ju
Credit evaluation has always been an important part of the financial field. The existing credit evaluation methods have difficulty in solving the problems of redundant data features and imbalanced samples. In response to the above issues, an ensemble model combining an advanced feature selection algorithm and an optimized loss function is proposed, which can be applied in the field of credit evaluation and improve the risk management ability of financial institutions. Firstly, the Boruta algorithm is embedded for feature selection, which can effectively reduce the data dimension and noise and improve the model’s capacity for generalization by automatically identifying and screening out features that are highly correlated with target variables. Then, the GHM loss function is incorporated into the XGBoost model to tackle the issue of skewed sample distribution, which is common in classification, and further improve the classification and prediction performance of the model. The comparative experiments on four large datasets demonstrate that the proposed method is superior to the existing mainstream methods and can effectively extract features and handle the problem of imbalanced samples.
信用评估一直是金融领域的重要组成部分。现有的信用评价方法难以解决数据特征冗余和样本不平衡的问题。针对上述问题,本文提出了一种结合先进特征选择算法和优化损失函数的集合模型,可应用于信用评价领域,提高金融机构的风险管理能力。首先,嵌入 Boruta 算法进行特征选择,通过自动识别和筛选出与目标变量高度相关的特征,有效降低数据维度和噪声,提高模型的泛化能力。然后,在 XGBoost 模型中加入 GHM 损失函数,以解决分类中常见的样本分布偏斜问题,进一步提高模型的分类和预测性能。在四个大型数据集上的对比实验表明,所提出的方法优于现有的主流方法,能有效地提取特征并处理不平衡样本问题。
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引用次数: 0
How to Reshape the Selection Boundaries between Traditional and Digital Supply Chain Finance Based on the Pledge Rate and Default Loss: Two Tripartite Game Models 如何基于质押率和违约损失重塑传统供应链金融和数字供应链金融的选择边界:两个三方博弈模型
IF 1.9 4区 社会学 Q1 SOCIAL SCIENCES, INTERDISCIPLINARY Pub Date : 2024-07-13 DOI: 10.3390/systems12070253
Xiang Sun, Yue Wang, Yinzi Huang, Yue Zhang
The development of digital technologies such as blockchain has provided new possibilities for solving the financing difficulties of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). In order to explore the mutual influence of the participants in the supply chain, this paper constructs two static tripartite game models for traditional and digital supply chain finance, including a small and medium-sized enterprise (SME), a core enterprise (CE), and a financial institution (FI). The conditions for SME, CE, and FI to participate in digital supply chain finance, and the equilibrium strategy (repayment, repayment, loan) after participating in digital supply chain finance, are figured out. It is found that compared with the traditional supply chain, the digital supply chain expands the probability range of repayment for SME and CE by the change of pledge rate and default loss and broadens the probability range of repayment for CE by the change of default loss. Further, compared with the traditional supply chain finance, the greater the pledge rate of digital supply chain finance and the smaller the default loss, the stronger the willingness of the SME and CE to participate in the digital supply chain and the lower the willingness of the FI. After the three parties participate in the digital supply chain, however, the conclusion is the opposite. The smaller the pledge rate and the greater the default loss, the stronger the repayment willingness for the SME and CE and the stronger the loan willingness of the FI. Therefore, it is suggested to find the critical values of pledge rate and default loss and raise these two variables to an appropriate range to encourage all parties to voluntarily and consistently participate in digital supply chain financing.
区块链等数字技术的发展为解决中小企业融资难问题提供了新的可能。为了探讨供应链中各参与方的相互影响,本文构建了传统供应链金融和数字供应链金融的两个静态三方博弈模型,包括中小企业(SME)、核心企业(CE)和金融机构(FI)。研究了中小企业、核心企业和金融机构参与数字供应链金融的条件,以及参与数字供应链金融后的均衡策略(还款、还贷、贷款)。研究发现,与传统供应链相比,数字供应链通过质押率和违约损失的变化扩大了中小企业和行政长官的还款概率范围,通过违约损失的变化扩大了行政长官的还款概率范围。此外,与传统供应链金融相比,数字供应链金融的质押率越高,违约损失越小,中小企业和行政长官参与数字供应链的意愿就越强,金融机构的意愿就越低。然而,三方参与数字供应链后,结论却恰恰相反。质押率越小,违约损失越大,中小企业和行政长官的还款意愿越强,金融机构的贷款意愿越强。因此,建议找到质押率和违约损失的临界值,并将这两个变量提高到适当的范围,以鼓励各方自愿、持续地参与数字供应链融资。
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