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A fuzzy two-phase model for renewable energy system optimization under uncertainty: from operational to strategic scenario planning 不确定条件下可再生能源系统优化的模糊两阶段模型:从运行情景规划到战略情景规划
IF 7.6 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.101600
Hamed Fazlollahtabar
Integrating volatile renewable energy into power grids requires robust optimization methods that avoid restrictive probabilistic assumptions. This study proposes a novel two-phase fuzzy model bridging operational planning and strategic market analysis. Phase 1 uses a Mamdani-type fuzzy inference system to generate realistic scenarios for solar/wind availability and demand. Phase 2 formulates a fuzzy linear program to minimize costs under uncertainty, the results of which inform a fuzzy Nash equilibrium model to analyze market participant strategies. Validated on a 10-node model with real California ISO data, our approach reduces system costs by 18.7% and maintains 99.2% reliability, outperforming stochastic and robust benchmarks. The model provides a practical decision-support tool for system operators and policymakers in renewable-dominated energy markets, demonstrating that fuzzy logic effectively captures real-world imprecision without complex data requirements.
将易变的可再生能源整合到电网中需要稳健的优化方法,以避免限制性的概率假设。本研究提出一种新的两阶段模糊模型,连结营运计划与策略性市场分析。第一阶段使用mamdani型模糊推理系统生成太阳能/风能可用性和需求的现实情景。第二阶段制定不确定条件下成本最小化的模糊线性规划,其结果为模糊纳什均衡模型提供信息,用于分析市场参与者的策略。在加利福尼亚ISO真实数据的10节点模型上验证,我们的方法降低了18.7%的系统成本,保持了99.2%的可靠性,优于随机和鲁棒基准。该模型为可再生能源主导的能源市场中的系统运营商和决策者提供了一个实用的决策支持工具,表明模糊逻辑在不需要复杂数据要求的情况下有效地捕获了现实世界的不精确性。
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引用次数: 0
Security domain modeling and suppression of commutation failure for LCC-HVDC considering AC-DC coupling 考虑交直流耦合的LCC-HVDC安全域建模及换相故障抑制
IF 7.6 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.101608
Shoudong Xu , Jinxin Ouyang , Mingyu Pang , Taiyu Xiao , Chao Xiao
In line-commuted converter based high voltage direct current (LCC-HVDC), commutation failure (CF) is a main source of danger. The CF is usually suppressed by regulating the single electrical quantity. However, for the active and reactive power of inverter station, the combination of DC current and voltage, AC bus voltage, firing angle (FA) and extinction angle (EA) is the determining influence. The regulation of any electrical quantity leads to variations in power, thereby influencing the AC bus voltage and subsequently inducing variations in the DC current, DC voltage, and EA. The neglect of AC-DC coupling affects the suppression of CF and limits power transmission. The formulation of the active and reactive power of inverter station has been deduced. Considering the constraints imposed by DC current and firing advance angle (FAA), the power feasible range is established. The feasible range of AC bus voltage and power is built considering AC-DC coupling. The commutation security domain of inverter station to avoid CF is modeled. To maximize the active power, formulations of DC current and FAA are proposed. Taking into account the power transmission, an improved suppression method of subsequent CF is proposed. The CIGRE standardized model is utilized to verify the method.
在基于线路整流的高压直流变换器(lc - hvdc)中,整流失效(CF)是一个主要的危险源。通常通过调节单个电量来抑制CF。而对于逆变站的有功和无功功率,直流电流和电压组合、交流母线电压、发射角(FA)和消光角(EA)是决定性的影响因素。任何电量的调节都会导致功率的变化,从而影响交流母线电压,进而引起直流电流、直流电压和EA的变化。忽略交直流耦合会影响对CF的抑制,从而限制功率的传输。推导了逆变站有功功率和无功功率的计算公式。考虑直流电流和射前角(FAA)的约束,建立了功率可行范围。考虑交直流耦合,建立了交流母线电压和功率的可行范围。建立了避免CF的逆变站换相安全域模型。为了使有功功率最大化,提出了直流电流和等效空速的计算公式。考虑到功率传输,提出了一种改进的后续CF抑制方法。利用CIGRE标准化模型对该方法进行了验证。
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引用次数: 0
Large-scale climate-neutral district heating and cooling: Integration of local microgrids for thermal distribution 大规模气候中性区域供热和供冷:局部微电网热分配的集成
IF 7.6 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-24 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.101552
Mohammad Sameti , Tao Fan , Anna Volkova , Zili Li
Conventional small-scale district heating (DH) systems that serve a limited number of buildings or neighbourhoods often exhibit higher specific capital costs and lower long-term efficiency compared to large-scale 4th or 5th generation DH networks. This is mainly because conventional systems typically operate at higher temperature levels and with less flexibility to integrate multiple renewable and waste heat sources, leading to greater distribution losses and reduced system synergy. In this study, underground metro space is utilized to integrate several small DHC systems into a single large-scale network, and a thermo-economic model is proposed. The metro helps lower the cost of distributing heat and makes it easier to integrate different heat sources. The cost reduction achieved in large-scale DHC systems is attributed to the use of existing conduits, reduced thermal losses, and enhanced heat exchange among the interconnected small DHC units. Additionally, this large-scale DHC network can easily accommodate future growth of consumers along it without extending the Metro and piping infrastructure and with upgrading the pumping capacity. A case study of the Dublin MetroLink, incorporating current 16 and future 26 small DHs, is analyzed to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The primary heat sources considered are data centers and underground water from the Dublin Port Tunnel which also functions as the primary heat-transport medium. Each smaller DH along the underground route would utilize its own large-scale heat pump to extract heat from the supply line in the underground space and inject their extra/unused heat back to cover the peak demand in another smaller DHs. He case study showed 17% reduction in annualized cost over its lifetime.
与大规模的第四代或第五代区域供热网络相比,为有限数量的建筑物或社区提供服务的传统小规模区域供热(DH)系统往往表现出更高的特定资本成本和更低的长期效率。这主要是因为传统系统通常在较高的温度水平下运行,并且集成多个可再生热源和废热源的灵活性较差,导致更大的分配损失和系统协同作用降低。本研究利用地铁地下空间将多个小型DHC系统整合为一个大型网络,并提出了一个热经济模型。地铁有助于降低分配热量的成本,并使不同的热源更容易整合。在大型DHC系统中实现的成本降低归功于现有管道的使用,减少了热损失,并加强了相互连接的小型DHC单元之间的热交换。此外,这种大规模的DHC网络可以很容易地适应未来消费者的增长,而不需要扩建地铁和管道基础设施,也不需要升级抽水能力。以都柏林地铁为例,分析了现有的16个和未来的26个小DHs,以证明所提出模型的有效性。考虑的主要热源是数据中心和都柏林港隧道的地下水,后者也是主要的热传输介质。沿着地下路线的每个较小的DH将利用自己的大型热泵从地下空间的供应线中提取热量,并将多余的/未使用的热量注入另一个较小的DH,以满足峰值需求。该案例研究表明,在其生命周期内,年化成本降低了17%。
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引用次数: 0
Unveiling carbon coking in hydrocarbon-fueled systems via normalized in situ gas chromatography 通过标准化原位气相色谱法揭示碳氢燃料系统中的碳结焦
IF 7.6 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.101568
Gyeong Duk Nam , Hyesong An , Hee Jin Kim , Heeji Lee , Gahyeon Lee , Sungtae Park , Jong-Eun Hong , Jong-Ho Lee , Jong Hoon Joo
Coking significantly degrades hydrocarbon-fueled system performance, making its analysis a critical challenge. Real-time monitoring of coking is typically conducted using current–voltage (I–V) or impedance spectroscopy. In most studies, systems have been considered stable against coking if no electrochemical degradation is observed. This study proposes the use of gas chromatography (GC) to investigate in situ coking behavior. Although quantifying coking using GC is inherently challenging owing to error margins, a normalization methodology was developed by systematically varying steam-to-carbon (S/C) ratios, allowing for a reliable analysis of relative coking trends despite absolute quantification limitations. The normalized values were defined as Δcoking, which represents an indicator of relative carbon deposition trends rather than the absolute amount of deposited carbon. The errors associated with the analysis process were minimized by fixing all the variables except for the hydrocarbon flow rate. In methane-utilized solid oxide fuel cells (SOFCs), performance remains stable at an S/C ratio of 1.5 or higher, which indicates that coking may not occur. However, applying a normalization methodology reveals coking behaviors that cannot be detected through electrochemical analysis alone. The reproducibility of the in situ GC-based coking analysis technique was validated by comparing carbon coking behavior between bare and coke-resistant catalyst-infiltrated anodes. The cell decorated with catalysts exhibited significantly lower Δcoking values under varying S/C ratios, confirming the method’s reliability in evaluating coking resistance. This highlights the limitations of traditional approaches for detecting subtle coking phenomena and demonstrates the value of GC for precise coking analysis, thereby advancing the understanding and mitigation of coking in hydrocarbon-fueled systems.
焦化会显著降低烃类燃料系统的性能,因此对其进行分析是一项关键挑战。焦化的实时监测通常使用电流-电压(I-V)或阻抗谱进行。在大多数研究中,如果没有观察到电化学降解,系统被认为是稳定的。本研究提出使用气相色谱法(GC)来研究原位焦化行为。尽管由于存在误差范围,使用气相色谱定量焦化本身就具有挑战性,但通过系统地改变蒸汽与碳(S/C)比率,开发了一种标准化方法,可以在绝对量化限制的情况下对相对焦化趋势进行可靠的分析。归一化后的值定义为Δcoking,它代表了相对碳沉积趋势的指标,而不是沉积碳的绝对数量。通过固定除油气流速外的所有变量,与分析过程相关的误差被最小化。在使用甲烷的固体氧化物燃料电池(sofc)中,性能在S/C比为1.5或更高时保持稳定,这表明可能不会发生结焦。然而,应用标准化方法揭示了仅通过电化学分析无法检测到的焦化行为。通过比较裸阳极和抗焦化催化剂渗透阳极的碳结焦行为,验证了原位气相色谱分析技术的可重复性。在不同的S/C比下,经过催化剂修饰的电池的Δcoking值显著降低,证实了该方法在评估抗焦化性能方面的可靠性。这突出了传统方法检测细微焦化现象的局限性,并证明了GC在精确焦化分析中的价值,从而促进了对碳氢化合物燃料系统中焦化的理解和缓解。
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引用次数: 0
Transforming sustainable energy through microgrids: Bangladesh perspectives 通过微电网转变可持续能源:孟加拉国的观点
IF 7.6 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-18 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.101585
Md. Kawsar Hossain , Abu Saleh Molla , Prangon Chowdhury , Faysal Amin Tanvir , Omar Farrok
Despite achieving universal access to electricity, Bangladesh faces severe energy issues that hinder its sustainable development. The country experiences frequent power outages, transmission losses, and overreliance on imported fuels. Many rural communities still face unreliable electricity, despite having plenty of untapped renewable resources. Existing studies have discussed microgrids’ technical, economic, and environmental aspects in different regions. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, none have evaluated detailed implementation challenges or their contribution to sustainable development. In this regard, this paper investigates how microgrids can transform Bangladesh’s energy landscape while meeting sustainability goals. It identifies key barriers to adoption such as weak infrastructure, cybersecurity risks, financial constraints, complex funding arrangements, difficulties in public–private partnerships, and challenges around social acceptance. It also reviews the technical requirements and policy frameworks within the country’s wider development agenda. Potential sites for microgrid deployment are mapped out, along with the policies needed to integrate them into the grid. Using SWOT and PESTLE frameworks, this paper observes factors influencing microgrid adoption, considering Bangladesh’s geographical and socioeconomic conditions. Based on the assessment, this study finds that microgrids can offer viable solutions to current energy problems by reducing import dependency, creating local employment, and delivering reliable rural power supply. However, regulatory ambiguity, limited technical capacity, high capital costs, and poor inter-agency coordination present significant obstacles. It can stimulate economic growth, enhance educational and healthcare services, and strengthen climate resilience. This analysis provides actionable recommendations for policymakers, investors, and development organisations addressing similar energy access challenges in other developing nations.
尽管实现了普及电力,孟加拉国仍面临严重的能源问题,阻碍了其可持续发展。该国经常出现停电、输电损失和过度依赖进口燃料的情况。尽管有大量未开发的可再生资源,许多农村社区仍然面临着电力不稳定的问题。现有的研究讨论了不同地区微电网的技术、经济和环境方面的问题。据作者所知,没有人评估过具体的实施挑战或它们对可持续发展的贡献。在这方面,本文研究了微电网如何在实现可持续发展目标的同时改变孟加拉国的能源格局。报告指出了采用人工智能的主要障碍,如基础设施薄弱、网络安全风险、财政限制、复杂的融资安排、公私伙伴关系的困难以及社会接受方面的挑战。它还审查该国更广泛的发展议程中的技术要求和政策框架。潜在的微电网部署地点被绘制出来,以及将它们整合到电网中所需的政策。本文使用SWOT和PESTLE框架,观察影响微电网采用的因素,考虑到孟加拉国的地理和社会经济条件。基于评估,本研究发现,微电网可以通过减少进口依赖、创造当地就业和提供可靠的农村电力供应,为当前的能源问题提供可行的解决方案。然而,监管含糊不清、技术能力有限、资本成本高以及机构间协调不力构成了重大障碍。它可以刺激经济增长,加强教育和医疗服务,并增强气候适应能力。这一分析为其他发展中国家解决类似能源获取挑战的政策制定者、投资者和发展组织提供了可行的建议。
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引用次数: 0
AI-driven optimization approaches of metal–organic frameworks for enhanced methane delivery 人工智能驱动的金属有机框架优化方法增强甲烷输送
IF 7.6 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.101605
Helder R.O. Rocha , Sara Abou Dargham , Jimmy Romanos , Wesley Costa , Roy Roukos , Jair A.L. Silva , Heinrich Wörtche
Methane, the primary component of natural gas, emits less carbon dioxide than other petroleum-based fuels but faces challenges in efficient storage and transportation. Advanced adsorption materials provide a safe and cost-effective solution, with metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) emerging as promising candidates for natural gas storage and delivery in vehicles. This research employed AI-Driven Optimization (AiDO) to identify optimal parameters for enhancing methane uptake while simultaneously improving both gravimetric and volumetric delivery. We developed and validated three machine learning models: eXtreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost), Kolmogorov–Arnold Network (KAN), and Convolutional Neural Network (CNN), using experimental data. All models demonstrated strong predictive performance, with XGBoost achieving outstanding results, including a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 0.0103 and a coefficient of determination (R2) of 0.9722. When integrated into an optimization framework, the XGBoost model identified optimal conditions for methane delivery, predicting a room temperature gravimetric delivery of 724.14 cm3/g, and a volumetric delivery of 602.21 cm3/cm3 from 65 to 5 bar. Sensitivity analysis validated the robustness of the AiDO methodology, highlighting its potential to effectively reduce costs and enhance the performance of porous MOFs.
甲烷是天然气的主要成分,与其他以石油为基础的燃料相比,它排放的二氧化碳较少,但在有效储存和运输方面面临挑战。先进的吸附材料提供了一种安全且具有成本效益的解决方案,金属有机框架(mof)正在成为汽车天然气储存和输送的有前途的候选者。该研究采用人工智能驱动优化(AiDO)来确定提高甲烷吸收率的最佳参数,同时改善重量和体积输送。我们使用实验数据开发并验证了三种机器学习模型:极端梯度增强(XGBoost)、Kolmogorov-Arnold网络(KAN)和卷积神经网络(CNN)。所有模型均表现出较强的预测性能,其中XGBoost取得了优异的结果,均方根误差(RMSE)为0.0103,决定系数(R2)为0.9722。当集成到优化框架中时,XGBoost模型确定了甲烷输送的最佳条件,预测室温重力输送量为724.14 cm3/g,体积输送量为602.21 cm3/cm3,范围为65 - 5 bar。灵敏度分析验证了AiDO方法的稳健性,强调了其有效降低成本和提高多孔mof性能的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
Geometric design of gas diffusion layer of PEMFCs to improve water management using multiphase lattice Boltzmann method 采用多相晶格玻尔兹曼方法设计pemfc气体扩散层以改善水管理
IF 7.6 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-17 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.101564
Amir Nourmohammadi , Majid Siavashi , Hossein Pourrahmani , Mohammad Mehdi Hesampour
Proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) are considered an advanced technology for clean energy usage due to their high efficiency and zero emissions. However, effective water management in the gas diffusion layer (GDL), particularly the formation and removal of liquid water droplets, remains a major challenge. In this study, a three-dimensional two-phase flow model based on the lattice Boltzmann method combined with the volume of fluid (LBM-VOF) approach is developed using the Palabos platform to simulate droplet dynamics at the pore scale of the GDL. The model is validated against existing numerical and experimental data. The main novelty of this study is to show the impacts of key geometric parameters, including porosity, fiber diameter, contact angle, and inlet velocity for conventional fiber-based structures, followed by the report of the best-performing values. Results reveal that mesh-based geometries, especially the hexagonal arrangement, significantly enhance water removal. In particular, the MultiOctagon 70% and Hexagon 70% configurations reduce water saturation and removal time by 42.16% and 44.99%, and by 47.61% and 43.99%, respectively, compared to the random fiber-based structure with 70% porosity and 8 µm fiber diameter. These findings highlight the potential of GDL designs to improve water management and overall PEMFC performance.
质子交换膜燃料电池(pemfc)因其高效率和零排放被认为是清洁能源使用的先进技术。然而,气体扩散层(GDL)的有效水管理,特别是液态水滴的形成和去除,仍然是一个主要挑战。本研究利用Palabos平台,建立了基于晶格玻尔兹曼方法结合流体体积法(LBM-VOF)的三维两相流模型,模拟了GDL孔隙尺度下的液滴动力学。根据已有的数值和实验数据对模型进行了验证。本研究的主要新颖之处在于展示了关键几何参数的影响,包括孔隙率、纤维直径、接触角和传统纤维基结构的入口速度,然后报告了最佳性能值。结果表明,基于网格的几何结构,特别是六边形排列,显著提高了水的去除效果。特别是,与孔隙率为70%、纤维直径为8µm的随机纤维结构相比,multi - octagon 70%和Hexagon 70%结构的含水饱和度和去除时间分别降低了42.16%和44.99%,47.61%和43.99%。这些发现强调了GDL设计在改善水管理和整体PEMFC性能方面的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
The transition to sustainable aviation fuel: insights from patent analysis and policy implications 向可持续航空燃料的过渡:来自专利分析和政策影响的见解
IF 7.6 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.101634
Qiuyan Xu, Greig Mordue
The aviation industry has committed to achieving net zero carbon emissions by 2050, with sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) identified as the most promising solution. The transition to SAF is mainly influenced by technological advancements, production capacities, and policy incentives. However, the rapidly evolving and diverse nature of SAF technologies complicates the landscape, resulting in a lack of value chain transparency and difficulties in understanding regional patterns in the SAF transition. This study addresses these challenges by constructing and analyzing a global database of SAF-related patents to examine SAF technology development trends, regional differences in innovation and patenting activities, the distribution of SAF technology domains, and key players in the supply chain. The analysis reveals regional disparities in innovation ecosystems and gaps in policy design while providing insights into the roles of stakeholders across the SAF value chain. Informed by these findings, the study makes policy recommendations aimed at addressing regional disparities, harmonizing SAF mandates, and aligning production with market dynamics, thereby supporting the sustainable decarbonization of aviation systems.
航空业已承诺到2050年实现净零碳排放,可持续航空燃料(SAF)被认为是最有希望的解决方案。向SAF的过渡主要受到技术进步、生产能力和政策激励的影响。然而,SAF技术的快速发展和多样性使环境变得复杂,导致价值链缺乏透明度,并且难以理解SAF转型中的区域模式。本研究通过构建和分析SAF相关专利的全球数据库来研究SAF技术的发展趋势、创新和专利活动的区域差异、SAF技术领域的分布以及供应链中的关键参与者,从而解决这些挑战。该分析揭示了创新生态系统的区域差异和政策设计方面的差距,同时提供了对SAF价值链中利益相关者作用的见解。根据这些发现,该研究提出了政策建议,旨在解决区域差异,协调SAF任务,使生产与市场动态保持一致,从而支持航空系统的可持续脱碳。
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引用次数: 0
Direct recycling of heavy cycle oil, light cycle oil and heavy naphtha to the RFCC reactor feed: Study on product yield distribution 重循环油、轻循环油和重石脑油直接回收至RFCC反应器进料:产品收率分布研究
IF 7.6 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-02-03 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.101652
S. Masoud Hosseini , A. Afshar Ebrahimi
This study examines the recycling of heavy cycle oil (HCO), light cycle oil (LCO), and heavy naphtha (HN) into the feed of a residue fluid catalytic cracking (RFCC) reactor to evaluate their effects on product yield distribution. The objective is to develop strategies for steering RFCC operations toward higher-value products. The recycled streams, rich in aromatic compounds, were tested in a fixed fluidized bed microreactor (ACE test) using a commercial RFCC equilibrium catalyst. The NOFs (neat oil fractions), namely HCO, LCO and HN, and blended feeds with atmospheric residue (ATR) were cracked at 520 °C under varying catalyst-to-oil (C/O) ratios. Conversion of the NOFs followed the order HN (99 wt%) > LCO (87.5 wt%) > HCO (42 wt%), with corresponding gasoline yields of 69, 51, and 14 wt%. For blended feeds, ATR + HN achieved the highest conversion (79.1 wt%) and gasoline yield (51 wt%), while ATR + LCO generated the most olefins. Results demonstrate that mono-aromatics act as gasoline precursors, whereas di-aromatics favor LCO formation. Increasing C/O ratio enhanced gasoline and olefin yields while reducing LCO and main cycle oil. These findings highlight the potential of recycling side streams to optimize RFCC performance and improve refinery fuel flexibility.
本研究考察了重循环油(HCO)、轻循环油(LCO)和重石脑油(HN)再循环到渣油催化裂化(RFCC)反应器的进料中,以评估它们对产品收率分布的影响。目标是制定战略,指导RFCC业务向更高价值的产品发展。利用商业RFCC平衡催化剂,在固定流化床微反应器(ACE)中对富含芳香族化合物的回收废水进行了测试。在不同的催化油比(C/O)条件下,在520℃下裂解NOFs(纯油馏分),即HCO、LCO和HN,以及带常压渣油(ATR)的混合进料。NOFs的转化率依次为HN (99% wt%) > LCO (87.5% wt%) > HCO (42% wt%),相应的汽油收率分别为69、51和14 wt%。对于混合饲料,ATR + HN的转化率最高(79.1% wt%),汽油收率最高(51% wt%),而ATR + LCO的烯烃产量最高。结果表明,单芳烃是汽油前驱体,而二芳烃有利于LCO的形成。提高碳氧比可提高汽油和烯烃收率,同时降低LCO和主循环油收率。这些发现强调了回收侧流在优化RFCC性能和提高炼油厂燃料灵活性方面的潜力。
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引用次数: 0
The future role of agroforestry and Agri-PV in the German energy system — An analysis with the BENOPTex model 农林业和农业光伏在德国能源系统中的未来作用-用BENOPTex模型进行分析
IF 7.6 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2026-05-01 Epub Date: 2026-01-27 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2026.101614
Alexander Cyfka , Matthias Jordan , Jürgen Vollmer , Daniela Thrän
The climate crisis requires a transition to a climate neutral energy system, particularly in sectors that are hard to decarbonize. For these sectors, biomass-based energy carriers often represent a comparatively cost-effective decarbonization option. Given limited suitable land availability and high energy demand, identifying land-efficient solutions for renewable energy production is crucial. The present study is concerned with the collection and harmonization of data on the multi-land-use concepts of agricultural photovoltaics (Agri-PV) and agroforestry. Both concepts are considered here as systems capable of contributing to renewable energy supply, through electricity generation and biomass production for energy use. The objective is to integrate these concepts into a model of the German energy system and use the energy system optimization model BENOPTex to evaluate their economic viability. In various sensitivity analysis, we determine the most cost-effective land allocation for energy production on the 2.16 million hectares currently used for energy crops. Results indicate that, under current yield and cost assumptions, neither Agri-PV nor agroforestry systems outperform monoculture systems (e.g. Miscanthus) or ground-mounted PV. However, the analysis identifies yield and cost thresholds at which specific combinations become competitive. For example, a Miscanthus-sugar beet agroforestry system becomes viable with a 6% yield increase in Miscanthus compared to the monoculture yield. Despite their current economic disadvantages, Agri-PV and agroforestry offer non-monetized benefits including biodiversity enhancement and climate resilience. The study concludes that bridging the economic gap may require valuing these co-benefits or achieving significant cost and yield improvements through research and innovation.
应对气候危机需要向气候中性能源系统过渡,特别是在那些难以脱碳的行业。对于这些部门来说,生物质能源载体通常是一种相对具有成本效益的脱碳选择。鉴于可获得的合适土地有限和能源需求高,确定有效利用土地的可再生能源生产解决办法至关重要。本研究的目的是收集和统一关于农业光伏和农林业的多种土地利用概念的数据。这两个概念在这里都被认为是能够通过发电和生物质生产来促进可再生能源供应的系统。目标是将这些概念整合到德国能源系统模型中,并使用能源系统优化模型BENOPTex来评估其经济可行性。在各种敏感性分析中,我们在目前用于能源作物的216万公顷土地上确定了最具成本效益的能源生产土地分配。结果表明,在目前的产量和成本假设下,农业光伏系统和农林复合系统都不如单一栽培系统(如芒草)或地面光伏系统。然而,该分析确定了特定组合具有竞争力的产量和成本阈值。例如,与单一栽培相比,芒草-甜菜复合农林业系统的产量增加了6%,从而变得可行。尽管农业光伏和农林业目前处于经济劣势,但它们提供了非货币化效益,包括增强生物多样性和气候适应能力。该研究的结论是,弥合经济差距可能需要重视这些共同利益,或者通过研究和创新实现显著的成本和产量改善。
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引用次数: 0
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Energy Conversion and Management-X
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