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Thermo-catalytic reforming pyrolysis of ensiled Saccharina latissima dominated macroalgal pellets for bioenergy production 用于生物能源生产的腌制 Saccharina latissima 优势巨藻颗粒的热催化重整热解法
IF 7.1 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2024.100692
Marie E. Kirby , Trisha Toop , Miloud Ouadi , Lesley McEvoy , Christine Rolin , Rhiannon Inkster , Philip W. Dyer , Michael K. Theodorou

Marine macroalgae is a biomass resource for the manufacture of fuels and chemicals, which can be sustainably harvested from seaweed farms or from man-made structures where it accumulates as a biofouling organism. However, in temperate regions farmed macroalgae can only be harvested between late Spring and early Summer, limiting year-round availability. Here we show that a conventional grass ensilage procedure preserves Saccharina latissima dominated biomass on the tonne scale for 30 months, enabling year-round use of this biomass. Following processing, the resulting dried and pelletised ensiled macroalgae material was subject to Thermo-Catalytic Reforming™, comprising sequential pyrolysis (450 °C) and either dry or steam catalytic reforming (700 °C) processes. Both processing methods produced a mixture of bio-oil (1.6–1.9 wt%) and hydrogen-rich permanent gases (30.9–31.1 wt%) with higher heating values of 34.8–35.4 MJ/kg and 18.0–24.2 MJ/m3, respectively, together with char (45.5–48.5 % wt). The permanent gases can be used directly for heat generation, while hydro-treatment of the bio-oil would afford a material that can be blended with traditional transport fuels. This work demonstrates that if operated at scale, the combined harvesting, ensilaging and Thermo-Catalytic Reforming™ of preserved macroalgal biomass offers a year-round decentralised energy resource.

海洋大型藻类是一种用于制造燃料和化学品的生物质资源,可以从海藻养殖场或作为生物污损生物聚集的人造结构中可持续地收获。然而,在温带地区,养殖的大型藻类只能在春末夏初收获,限制了全年的供应。在这里,我们展示了一种传统的草料腌制方法,这种方法能将以 Saccharina latissima 为主的生物质保存 30 个月,使这种生物质全年都能使用。在加工过程中,得到的干燥和颗粒化的大型藻类饵料要经过 Thermo-Catalytic Reforming™(热催化重整)处理,包括连续热解(450 °C)和干法或蒸汽催化重整(700 °C)过程。这两种处理方法都能产生生物油(1.6-1.9 wt%)和富氢永久气体(30.9-31.1 wt%)的混合物,热值分别为 34.8-35.4 MJ/kg 和 18.0-24.2 MJ/m3,同时还能产生焦炭(45.5-48.5 % wt%)。永久气体可直接用于发热,而生物油的水处理则可提供一种可与传统运输燃料混合的材料。这项工作表明,如果规模化运作,对保存的大型藻类生物质进行联合收割、腌制和热催化重整™,可提供全年分散的能源资源。
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引用次数: 0
Sustainable conversion of agricultural waste into solid fuel (Charcoal) via gasification and pyrolysis treatment 通过气化和热解处理将农业废弃物可持续地转化为固体燃料(木炭
IF 7.1 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-22 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2024.100693
Kantapong Khaeso , Bunyawat Sukhuna , Somporn Katekaew , Chaiyan Junsiri , Wiroon Monatrakul , Aphichat Srichat , Kritsadang Senawong , Kittipong Laloon

Managing agricultural waste by burning it in the fields is a straightforward method, but leads to significant pollution. One promising alternative is to convert agricultural waste into solid fuel, such as charcoal, to support renewable energy from biomass. The quality of barbecue charcoal depends upon selecting suitable materials and employing heating methods to ensure efficient transformation. This research aims to study the charcoal conversion process from agricultural waste using two types of kilns: 1) direct heating (gasification kiln: GK) and 2) indirect heating (pyrolysis kiln: PK) designed to recirculate syngas from wood as fuel for the pyrolysis process. The study tested three types of agricultural waste materials, including coconut shells (CS), cassava rhizome (CR), and acacia wood (AW), to examine the differences in charcoal produced by the two heating methods. The tests revealed that the maximum temperatures inside the kilns were 792.45 ± 127.18 °C, 907.67 ± 37.3 °C, and 980.07 ± 110.56 °C for the GK, and 921.88 ± 57.84 °C, 801.93 ± 10.16 °C, and 937.82 ± 95.85 °C for the PK. The charcoal from the PK exhibited higher calorific values than the GK, with 7474.68 ± 36.62, 6429.04 ± 72.22, and 7268.33 ± 52.86 calories per gram. The charcoal yield was also higher in the PK, at 31.29 ± 4.39, 34.33 ± 3.39, and 17.58 ± 2.09 percent for coconut shells charcoal (CSC), cassava rhizome charcoal (CRC), and acacia wood charcoal (AWC), respectively. However, the PK required more fuel and longer ignition times. The resulting charcoal from the slow pyrolysis process in the PK is suitable as barbecue fuel due to its size, which is similar to the original material. In contrast, the charcoal from the GK, which tends to shrink or break into smaller pieces, is more suitable for grinding into briquettes. This study provides a guideline for producing high-quality barbecue charcoal, offering commercial benefits including the gasification and pyrolysis processes that improve combustion efficiency and reduce pollution by producing high-quality gas for fuel, unlike traditional kilns that emit a large amount of CO during the conversion of wood to charcoal and enabling the selection of appropriate raw materials for different heating methods to maximise the utility of the products. This approach adds value to agricultural raw materials and helps effectively manage agricultural waste (zero waste) for further utilisation and development.

在田间焚烧农业废弃物是一种直接的管理方法,但会造成严重污染。将农业废弃物转化为木炭等固体燃料,支持从生物质中获取可再生能源,是一种很有前景的替代方法。烧烤木炭的质量取决于选择合适的材料和采用加热方法,以确保有效转化。本研究旨在利用两种类型的窑炉研究农业废弃物的木炭转化过程:1) 直接加热(气化窑:GK)和 2) 间接加热(热解窑:PK),旨在循环利用木材产生的合成气作为热解过程的燃料。该研究测试了三种农业废料,包括椰子壳(CS)、木薯根茎(CR)和相思木(AW),以检验两种加热方法产生的木炭的差异。试验表明,GK 窑内的最高温度分别为 792.45 ± 127.18 ℃、907.67 ± 37.3 ℃和 980.07 ± 110.56 ℃,而 PK 窑内的最高温度分别为 921.88 ± 57.84 ℃、801.93 ± 10.16 ℃和 937.82 ± 95.85 ℃。PK 的木炭热值高于 GK,分别为每克 7474.68 ± 36.62 卡路里、6429.04 ± 72.22 卡路里和 7268.33 ± 52.86 卡路里。PK 的出炭率也更高,椰壳炭(CSC)、木薯根茎炭(CRC)和金合欢木炭(AWC)的出炭率分别为 31.29 ± 4.39%、34.33 ± 3.39% 和 17.58 ± 2.09%。然而,PK 需要更多的燃料和更长的点火时间。在 PK 中缓慢热解过程产生的木炭由于其大小与原始材料相似,因此适合用作烧烤燃料。相比之下,来自 GK 的木炭容易收缩或碎裂成小块,更适合研磨成煤球。这项研究为生产优质烧烤木炭提供了指导,并带来了商业利益,包括气化和热解过程,与传统窑炉将木材转化为木炭的过程中排放大量二氧化碳不同,气化和热解过程通过生产优质气体作为燃料,提高了燃烧效率,减少了污染,并能为不同的加热方法选择合适的原材料,最大限度地发挥产品的效用。这种方法增加了农业原材料的价值,有助于有效管理农业废弃物(零废弃物),以便进一步利用和发展。
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引用次数: 0
Kinetics of Water Adsorption in Metal-Organic Framework(MOF-303) for Adsorption Cooling Application 用于吸附冷却应用的金属有机框架(MOF-303)中的水吸附动力学
IF 7.1 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-21 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2024.100694
Ahmed E. Abu EL-Maaty , Mahmoud A. Abdalla , Mohamed Essalhi , Mahmoud M. Abdelnaby , Morsi M. Mahmoud , Mohamed A. Habib , Mohamed Antar , Rached Ben-Mansour

Adsorption cooling systems (ACS) powered by low-temperature heat offer an energy-efficient and environmentally friendly alternative to traditional vapor-compression systems. The effectiveness of ACS is significantly influenced by the alignment of the adsorbent properties with the operating conditions of the cycle. Metal-Organic Frameworks (MOFs) are considered the next generation of water harvesting and ACS. Many MOFs are synthesized and tested for water harvesting systems, one of these MOFs is MOF-303 which was reported to have very rapid water sorption dynamics under atmospheric conditions. However, MOF-303 has never been tested under the same conditions as ACS (under vacuum). In this study, the isotherms and kinetics of water adsorption on MOF-303, as an efficient adsorbent of water vapor, is experimentally investigated for the ACS using the linear driving force model. The diffusion coefficients across a wide range of relative pressures under two different temperatures were estimated. The study compares the adsorption process of MOF-303 with traditional silica gel (SG) in the context of diffusion kinetics relevant to ACS. Based on the output and at a constant temperature of 25 °C and across all relative pressure ranges, MOF-303 exhibited an average increase of approximately eight times in diffusion kinetics compared to SG. Specifically, within the relative pressure range of 10–30 %, which is optimal for ACS, MOF-303 demonstrated a seven-fold increase in diffusion kinetics over SG. The diffusion values for SG display a clear upward trend with increasing temperature. In contrast, the diffusion values for MOF-303 are subject to fluctuations with temperature changes under investigation. Notably, the isotherm for MOF-303 shows an inflection point at relative pressures between 10–15 %, causing a significant reduction in diffusion at these specific relative pressures compared to other relative pressure values. The findings in this study highlight the potential use of MOF-303 as a highly efficient water adsorbent for the ACS which will enable scientists and engineers to develop sustainable low-grade energy systems.

以低温热能为动力的吸附冷却系统(ACS)为传统的蒸汽压缩系统提供了一种节能环保的替代方案。吸附冷却系统的有效性在很大程度上受到吸附剂特性与循环运行条件是否一致的影响。金属有机框架(MOFs)被认为是新一代的水收集和 ACS。许多 MOFs 已被合成并测试用于水收集系统,其中一种 MOFs 是 MOF-303,据报道它在大气条件下具有非常快速的水吸附动力学。然而,MOF-303 从未在与 ACS 相同的条件下(真空)进行过测试。在本研究中,采用线性驱动力模型对水蒸气的高效吸附剂 MOF-303 在 ACS 上吸附水的等温线和动力学进行了实验研究。研究估算了两种不同温度下各种相对压力下的扩散系数。该研究比较了 MOF-303 与传统硅胶 (SG) 在与 ACS 相关的扩散动力学背景下的吸附过程。根据输出结果,在恒温 25 °C 和所有相对压力范围内,与 SG 相比,MOF-303 的扩散动力学平均提高了约八倍。具体而言,在 10-30% 的相对压力范围内(ACS 的最佳压力),MOF-303 的扩散动力学比 SG 提高了七倍。随着温度的升高,SG 的扩散值呈明显的上升趋势。相比之下,MOF-303 的扩散值会随着研究温度的变化而波动。值得注意的是,MOF-303 的等温线在相对压力介于 10-15% 之间时出现拐点,导致在这些特定相对压力下的扩散值比其他相对压力值明显降低。本研究的发现凸显了 MOF-303 作为 ACS 高效水吸附剂的潜在用途,这将有助于科学家和工程师开发可持续的低品位能源系统。
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引用次数: 0
Review and modeling on hydrogen fuel cells electric vehicle (HFCEV), in comparison with battery electrical vehicle (BEV) using MATLAB environment. Case study: Postal car 使用 MATLAB 环境对氢燃料电池电动汽车(HFCEV)进行回顾和建模,并与电池电动汽车(BEV)进行比较。案例研究:邮政车
IF 7.1 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-20 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2024.100684
Ghaeth Fandi , Jaroslav Novák , Jan Chyský , Jakub Šrom

This research puts forward the modeling of a Hydrogen Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle (HFCEV) and its validation, in comparison with battery electrical vehicle (BEV) based on a postal vehicle and its subsystems. The main investigation parameters are the amount of hydrogen consumed, and the change in the state of charging of the battery. For the profile of the same speed route, an HFCEV model and a BEV model, consisting of multiple subsystems, were developed, and simulated in the MATLAB® Simulink environment. We make use of various sources of drive cycles to obtain our outcomes such as the New European Diving Cycle (NEDC). By running simulations for different stages, we are able to generate simulation results. The discrepancies in the graphs and the visual demonstrations guided us to variable conclusions on how different factors affect an electric vehicle’s performance and efficiency. The simulation result shows that the (BEV) is 30% more effective for NEDC drive cycle comparing with (HFCEV).

本研究提出了氢燃料电池电动汽车(HFCEV)的建模及其验证,并与基于邮政车及其子系统的电池电动汽车(BEV)进行了比较。主要研究参数是氢消耗量和电池充电状态的变化。针对同速路线的剖面,我们开发了由多个子系统组成的 HFCEV 模型和 BEV 模型,并在 MATLAB® Simulink 环境中进行了模拟。我们利用各种驱动循环来源来获得结果,例如新欧洲潜水循环(NEDC)。通过运行不同阶段的模拟,我们能够生成模拟结果。图表和直观演示中的差异引导我们得出不同的结论,即不同因素如何影响电动汽车的性能和效率。模拟结果表明,在 NEDC 驱动循环中,(BEV)的效率比(HFCEV)高 30%。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of using PCM layers in simultaneously the external and internal walls of building on energy annual consumption 在建筑物外墙和内墙同时使用 PCM 层对年能耗的影响
IF 7.1 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2024.100689
Mahboube Roostaei Firouzabad, Fathollah Pourfayaz

This article conducted a comprehensive study on a three-story residential building in Yazd, Iran, which was meticulously modeled using DesignBuilder. The primary objective was to investigate the impact of BioPCMs (Bio Phase Change Materials), which are environmentally friendly materials, on the building’s thermal performance. For this purpose, BioPCM® M182/Q21 was selected due to its effectiveness in enhancing energy efficiency. The study involved a practical comparison of the building’s energy consumption under three scenarios. The first scenario represented the baseline condition where no PCM was used. The second scenario incorporated PCM into the external walls, while the third scenario extended the use of PCM to both the external and internal walls. In the second scenario, where PCM was applied only to the external walls, there was a 9% reduction in annual energy consumption. The third scenario, which utilized PCM in both the external and internal walls, resulted in a reduction of 15.5% in annual energy consumption. Additionally, when PCM was used in both the external and internal walls, the total energy consumption for cooling and heating the building decreased by 5.4% and 18.9%, respectively.

本文对伊朗亚兹德的一栋三层住宅楼进行了全面研究,并使用 DesignBuilder 对其进行了细致的建模。主要目的是研究环保材料 BioPCM(生物相变材料)对建筑物热性能的影响。为此,我们选择了 BioPCM® M182/Q21,因为它能有效提高能源效率。这项研究对三种情况下的建筑能耗进行了实际比较。第一种情况是不使用 PCM 的基准条件。第二种情况是在外墙使用 PCM,第三种情况是在外墙和内墙都使用 PCM。在第二个方案中,只在外墙使用了 PCM,每年的能耗减少了 9%。第三种方案在外墙和内墙都使用了 PCM,年能耗减少了 15.5%。此外,在外墙和内墙都使用 PCM 时,建筑物制冷和供暖的总能耗分别减少了 5.4% 和 18.9%。
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引用次数: 0
An object-oriented implementation of a recursive “quantum network” solver and its application to district heating networks 面向对象的递归 "量子网络 "求解器实现及其在区域供热网络中的应用
IF 7.1 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-08-14 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2024.100690
Cornelia Blanke, Malick Kane

With the increasing importance of energy efficiency and sustainability, the demand for high-performance district heating networks is also on the rise. As traditional engineering methods were often no longer sufficient, several packages for numerical simulation have evolved. Many of them offer high accuracy at the cost of considerable manual preparation and computational effort. However, there is still no user-friendly software that is equally suitable for simplified studies in the early project phase, for the rapid optimisation of multiple concepts and for subsequent detailed planning and dimensioning. For this reason and in cooperation with some companies from the energy sector, we had conceived a novel, highly flexible modular approach, the so-called “quantum networks”, where all parts of the district heating network are appropriately abstracted into quantum elements. Now we present our recent implementation of this model in an object-oriented C++ library. Starting from a generalised base class and making use of the concepts of inheritance and polymorphism, the idea of different levels of detail for the same element type is directly realised and can always be further refined. In addition, as all elements are derived from the same base class, they all share the same outer appearance and can thus be easily combined or interchanged. Based on these prerequisites, a dedicated thermo-hydraulic solver has then been developed. Thanks to its recursive design requiring neither outer iterations nor matrix inversions, it proves to be extremely fast and is therefore suitable for rapid design or optimisation studies in which a vast number of configurations has to be computed. To conclude this part of the work, the developed C++ library was benchmarked on two use cases covering a full year of operation that can now be computed in approximately one second of runtime.

随着能源效率和可持续性的重要性不断提高,对高性能区域供热网络的需求也在不断增加。由于传统的工程方法往往已经不能满足需要,因此出现了一些用于数值模拟的软件包。其中许多软件包在提供高精度的同时,也付出了大量的人工准备和计算工作。然而,目前仍没有一款用户友好型软件能够同样适用于项目初期的简化研究、多种概念的快速优化以及后续的详细规划和尺寸计算。为此,我们与能源行业的一些公司合作,构思了一种新颖、高度灵活的模块化方法,即所谓的 "量子网络",将区域供热网络的所有部分适当抽象为量子元素。现在,我们将介绍我们最近在面向对象的 C++ 库中对这一模型的实施。从一个通用的基类开始,利用继承和多态性的概念,可以直接实现同一元素类型的不同详细程度,并可随时进一步完善。此外,由于所有元素都来自同一个基类,因此它们都具有相同的外观,可以很容易地进行组合或互换。基于这些先决条件,我们开发了专用的热液求解器。由于其递归设计既不需要外部迭代,也不需要矩阵反演,因此速度极快,适用于需要计算大量配置的快速设计或优化研究。在结束这部分工作时,对开发的 C++ 库进行了基准测试,测试的两个用例涵盖了一整年的运行情况,现在只需约一秒钟的运行时间即可完成计算。
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引用次数: 0
Exploring kinetics and mass transfer in photocatalytic CO2 reduction: Impact of photocatalyst loading and stirrer speed 探索光催化二氧化碳还原过程中的动力学和传质:光催化剂负载和搅拌器转速的影响
IF 7.1 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2024.100651
María de los Milagros Ballari , Miroslava Filip Edelmannová , Rudolf Ricka , Martin Reli , Kamila Kočí

CO2 photocatalytic reduction is a potential and promising technology to reduce the level of the greenhouse gas in the atmosphere but also as an alternative and renewable fuel resource. However, the products yield of the reaction is still low and the identification of the optimal operating conditions that affect the process are still needed to be determined. This study investigates the impact of key operational parameters, specifically photocatalyst concentration and stirring speed, on the photocatalytic reduction of CO2 in a slurry batch photoreactor utilizing synthesized TiO2. A simplified photocatalytic kinetic model, incorporating the radiation field within the photoreactor, was developed, considering mass transfer from liquid to gas phase for the primary detected reaction products (CO, CH4, and H2). The proposed models elucidate the influence of different operating conditions on product yields. Stirring speed, controlled by a magnetic stirrer, impacts the gas–liquid mass transfer rate. Increased liquid phase stirring speed ensures faster species transport to the gas phase, with a diminishing effect beyond 900 rpm. TiO2 photocatalyst mass concentration influences the available total active surface and irradiation absorbance in the photoreactor volume. Optimal product yields were observed at the lowest tested photocatalyst concentration (0.5 g · L-1), indicating improved irradiation distribution and reduced particle agglomeration, resulting in higher available active surface for the reaction. The calculation model successfully predicted product yields even with lower photocatalyst concentration of 0.25 g · L-1, with marginal increases in predicted yields. These findings provide valuable insights for scaling up and optimizing the CO2 photocatalytic reduction process, offering a foundation for future research.

二氧化碳光催化还原技术是一项潜力巨大、前景广阔的技术,不仅可以降低大气中的温室气体含量,还可以作为一种可替代的可再生燃料资源。然而,该反应的产物产量仍然很低,而且影响该过程的最佳操作条件仍有待确定。本研究探讨了关键操作参数(特别是光催化剂浓度和搅拌速度)对利用合成 TiO2 的浆料间歇式光反应器光催化还原 CO2 的影响。考虑到主要检测反应产物(CO、CH4 和 H2)从液相到气相的传质,建立了一个简化的光催化动力学模型,其中包含光反应器内的辐射场。所提出的模型阐明了不同操作条件对产品产量的影响。由磁力搅拌器控制的搅拌速度会影响气液传质速率。提高液相搅拌速度可确保物种更快地传输到气相,但超过 900 rpm 后,效果会逐渐减弱。二氧化钛光催化剂的质量浓度会影响光反应器体积中可用的总活性表面和辐照吸收率。在测试的最低光催化剂浓度(0.5 g - L-1)下,观察到了最佳的产品产量,这表明辐照分布得到改善,颗粒团聚减少,从而为反应提供了更高的可用活性表面。即使在光催化剂浓度较低的情况下(0.25 克-升-1),计算模型也能成功预测产物产量,而且预测产量略有增加。这些发现为扩大和优化二氧化碳光催化还原过程提供了宝贵的见解,为今后的研究奠定了基础。
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引用次数: 0
Optimisation and control of tidal range power plants operation: Is there scope for further improvement? 潮汐发电站运行的优化与控制:是否有进一步改进的余地?
IF 7.1 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2024.100657
Agustina Skiarski , Nicolás Faedo , John V. Ringwood

Tidal barrage power plants utilise the tidal range variation to generate clean electricity. Although there are several operating tidal barrage schemes around the globe, there is still potential to expand the installed capacity. Given their inherent storage and the high predictability of the tides, tidal barrages can be operated with more flexibility than many other renewables. This means that the control objective of a barrage operation can vary from energy maximisation to constant power output, or demand-matching objectives. The operation of a barrage also influences its impact on the environment and economic activity of the site where it is located, which is a major cause for the slow deployment of such power plants. The aim of this study is to provide a comprehensive and critical analysis of the different strategies considered to date to optimise the operation of tidal barrages, with a focus on an in-depth analysis of the optimisation schemes employed, the barrage models utilised, and opportunities for further improvement.

潮汐拦河坝发电厂利用潮差变化产生清洁电力。虽然全球已有多个潮汐拦河坝计划在运行,但仍有扩大装机容量的潜力。鉴于其固有的存储能力和潮汐的高度可预测性,挡潮闸的运行比许多其他可再生能源更具灵活性。这意味着拦潮闸运行的控制目标可以从能量最大化到恒定功率输出或需求匹配目标不等。拦河坝的运行也会影响其所在地区的环境和经济活动,这也是此类电站部署缓慢的主要原因。本研究旨在对迄今为止为优化潮汐拦河坝运行而考虑的不同策略进行全面和批判性的分析,重点是深入分析所采用的优化方案、所使用的拦河坝模型以及进一步改进的机会。
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引用次数: 0
Robust estimation of global horizontal irradiance with modified fuzzy regression functions with a noise cluster in Australia 在澳大利亚利用带噪声群的修正模糊回归函数对全球水平辐照度进行鲁棒估计
IF 7.1 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2024.100677
Srinivas Chakravarty , Haydar Demirhan , Furkan Baser

The utilization of solar energy is picking up speed to counter climate change. New large-scale photovoltaic power stations are being constructed to increase solar utilization in the energy mix. A critical input of site selection for solar farms is the solar energy generation potential at a given location. Various physical and satellite-based inversion models are proposed to estimate the solar irradiation reaching the ground at potential locations, based on the meteorological features. However, the meteorological features generally contain outlier observations that distract the solar irradiation estimation models. To address this challenge, this study employs a robust fuzzy regression functions framework against the outliers to estimate the global horizontal irradiance (GHI) in Australia. Our framework is benchmarked with support vector machines, deep neural networks, and an adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, and better GHI estimation performance is observed. The proposed framework provides 24 %, 18 %, and 23 % gain over the second-best method in terms of the rescaled mean absolute error, absolute percentage bias and rescaled root-mean-squared error. Monthly and annual GHI maps are created for Australia and compared to those from NASA POWER GHI estimates and Solargis annual GHI estimates. Our framework has an error range between 0.075 % and 2.9 % when validated against ground measurements. It provides at least an average of 40% lower monthly and annual error rates than POWER. This rate of gain rises to 69% when compared to Solargis. Our maps are not impacted by terrestrial characteristics and clear-sky conditions. This study’s results are beneficial in site selection and construction of high-precision GHI estimation models for practitioners.

为应对气候变化,太阳能的利用正在加速。新的大型光伏发电站正在建设之中,以提高太阳能在能源组合中的利用率。太阳能发电场选址的一个关键因素是特定地点的太阳能发电潜力。人们提出了各种基于物理和卫星的反演模型,以根据气象特征估算到达潜在地点地面的太阳辐照度。然而,气象特征通常包含离群观测值,会分散太阳辐照度估算模型的注意力。为了应对这一挑战,本研究采用了一种稳健的模糊回归函数框架来估计澳大利亚的全球水平辐照度(GHI)。我们的框架以支持向量机、深度神经网络和基于自适应网络的模糊推理系统为基准,观察到了更好的全球水平辐照度估计性能。在重标定平均绝对误差、绝对百分比偏差和重标定均方根误差方面,所提出的框架比第二好的方法分别提高了 24%、18% 和 23%。为澳大利亚绘制了月度和年度全球暖气指数图,并与美国国家航空航天局 POWER 全球暖气指数估算值和 Solargis 年度全球暖气指数估算值进行了比较。在与地面测量数据进行验证时,我们的框架误差范围在 0.075 % 到 2.9 % 之间。与 POWER 相比,它的月误差率和年误差率至少平均降低了 40%。与 Solargis 相比,误差率提高了 69%。我们的地图不受地面特征和晴空条件的影响。这项研究的结果有助于为实践者选址和构建高精度的 GHI 估算模型。
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引用次数: 0
A copula post-processing method for wind power projections under climate change 气候变化下风力发电预测的共轭后处理方法
IF 7.1 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS Pub Date : 2024-07-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.ecmx.2024.100660
Sogol Moradian , Salem Gharbia , Gregorio Iglesias , Agnieszka Indiana Olbert

Wind energy plays a pivotal role in the ongoing effort to reduce carbon emissions in the energy sector. With the increasing evidence of climate change, there is a growing concern regarding the planning and operation of wind energy resources. Accurate forecasts are essential to understand the frequency distribution of wind speed data in a given area and, consequently, to estimate energy production. This paper aims to analyze the wind resources under climate change, assess their potential, and create zoning maps for wind energy production in the island of Ireland. For this objective, wind speed data from 31 general circulation models (GCMs) and two climate change scenarios were utilized for both hindcast and forecast periods in 1981–2010 and 2021–2050, respectively. The GCM outputs were first bias-corrected and then post-processed using various (non–)parametric statistical distributions and 3 Copula families. The results indicate an expected decrease in the average wind speed in the region up to ∼ 21 % by 2050, contingent on the climate scenarios under consideration and the target point. Ultimately, this study concludes by presenting wind power density maps specifically to the study region, offering valuable insights for sustainable energy planning.

风能在能源领域减少碳排放的持续努力中发挥着举足轻重的作用。随着气候变化的证据越来越多,人们越来越关注风能资源的规划和运行。要了解特定地区风速数据的频率分布,进而估算能源产量,准确的预测至关重要。本文旨在分析气候变化下的风能资源,评估其潜力,并绘制爱尔兰岛风能生产分区图。为此,本文利用了来自 31 个大气环流模型(GCM)和两种气候变化情景的风速数据,分别用于 1981-2010 年和 2021-2050 年的后报和预测期。首先对 GCM 输出进行了偏差校正,然后使用各种(非)参数统计分布和 3 个 Copula 系进行后处理。结果表明,根据所考虑的气候情景和目标点,到 2050 年,该地区的平均风速预计将下降 21%。最后,本研究通过展示研究区域的风能密度图得出结论,为可持续能源规划提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
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Energy Conversion and Management-X
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