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How likely is it to beat the target at different investment horizons: an approach using compositional data in strategic portfolios 在不同投资期限内战胜目标的可能性有多大:利用战略投资组合中的构成数据的方法
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-06-25 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00601-3
Fernando Vega-Gámez, Pablo J. Alonso-González
Strategic portfolios are asset combinations designed to achieve investor objectives. A unique feature of these investments is that portfolios must be rebalanced periodically to maintain the initially established structure. This paper introduces a methodology to estimate the probability of not exceeding a specific profitability target with this type of portfolio to determine if this kind of build portfolio makes obtaining certain profitability targets easy. Portfolios with a specific distribution of fixed-income and equity securities were randomly replicated and their performance was studied over different time horizons. Daily data from 2004 to 2021 was used. Since the sum of all asset weights invariably equals the unit, the original data were transformed using the compositional data methodology. With these transformed data, the probabilities were estimated for each analyzed portfolio. The study also performed a sensitivity analysis of the estimated probabilities, modifying the weight of specific assets in the portfolio.
战略投资组合是为实现投资者目标而设计的资产组合。这类投资的一个独特之处在于,必须定期对投资组合进行再平衡,以保持最初建立的结构。本文介绍了一种估算这类投资组合不超过特定盈利目标的概率的方法,以确定这种构建投资组合的方式是否能轻松实现特定的盈利目标。本文随机复制了具有特定固定收益和股权证券分布的投资组合,并对其在不同时间跨度内的表现进行了研究。使用的是 2004 年至 2021 年的每日数据。由于所有资产权重的总和总是等于单位,因此使用组成数据方法对原始数据进行了转换。利用这些转换后的数据,对每个分析组合的概率进行了估算。研究还对估计概率进行了敏感性分析,修改了投资组合中特定资产的权重。
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引用次数: 0
Analyzing time–frequency connectedness between cryptocurrencies, stock indices, and benchmark crude oils during the COVID-19 pandemic 分析 COVID-19 大流行期间加密货币、股票指数和基准原油之间的时频关联性
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-06-18 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-024-00645-z
Majid Mirzaee Ghazani, Ali Akbar Momeni Malekshah, Reza Khosravi
We used daily return series for three pairs of datasets from the crude oil markets (WTI and Brent), stock indices (the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500), and benchmark cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin and Ethereum) to examine the connections between various data during the COVID-19 pandemic. We consider two characteristics: time and frequency. Based on Diebold and Yilmaz’s (Int J Forecast 28:57–66, 2012) technique, our findings indicate that comparable data have a substantially stronger correlation (regarding return) than volatility. Per Baruník and Křehlík’ (J Financ Econ 16:271–296, 2018) approach, interconnectedness among returns (volatilities) reduces (increases) as one moves from the short to the long term. A moving window analysis reveals a sudden increase in correlation, both in volatility and return, during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the context of wavelet coherence analysis, we observe a strong interconnection between data corresponding to the COVID-19 outbreak. The only exceptions are the behavior of Bitcoin and Ethereum. Specifically, Bitcoin combinations with other data exhibit a distinct behavior. The period precisely coincides with the COVID-19 pandemic. Evidently, volatility spillover has a long-lasting impact; policymakers should thus employ the appropriate tools to mitigate the severity of the relevant shocks (e.g., the COVID-19 pandemic) and simultaneously reduce its side effects.
我们使用了原油市场(WTI 和布伦特)、股票指数(道琼斯工业平均指数和标准普尔 500 指数)和基准加密货币(比特币和以太坊)三对数据集的每日回报序列,以研究 COVID-19 大流行期间各种数据之间的联系。我们考虑了两个特征:时间和频率。根据 Diebold 和 Yilmaz(Int J Forecast 28:57-66,2012 年)的技术,我们的研究结果表明,可比数据(关于回报率)的相关性大大强于波动性。根据 Baruník 和 Křehlík(J Financ Econ 16:271-296,2018 年)的方法,收益率(波动率)之间的相互关联性会随着从短期到长期的移动而降低(增加)。移动窗口分析显示,在 COVID-19 大流行期间,波动率和回报率的相关性突然增加。在小波相干性分析中,我们观察到与 COVID-19 爆发相对应的数据之间存在很强的相互联系。唯一的例外是比特币和以太坊的行为。具体来说,比特币与其他数据的组合表现出一种独特的行为。这一时期恰好与 COVID-19 大流行相吻合。显而易见,波动溢出具有长期影响;因此,决策者应采用适当的工具来减轻相关冲击(如 COVID-19 大流行病)的严重性,同时减少其副作用。
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引用次数: 0
Investor sentiment and the holiday effect in the cryptocurrency market: evidence from China 加密货币市场的投资者情绪和假日效应:来自中国的证据
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-06-11 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-024-00639-x
Pengcheng Zhang, Kunpeng Xu, Jian Huang, Jiayin Qi
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引用次数: 0
Estimation of default and pricing for invoice trading (P2B) on crowdlending platforms 众贷平台发票交易(P2B)的违约和定价估算
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-06-08 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-024-00632-4
Cristian Marques Corrales, Luis Alberto Otero González, Pablo Durán Santomil
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引用次数: 0
Does a higher hashrate strengthen Bitcoin network security? 更高的哈希率会加强比特币网络安全吗?
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00599-8
Daehan Kim, Doojin Ryu, Robert I. Webb
In the blockchain world, proof-of-work is the dominant protocol mechanism that determines the consensus of the ledger. The hashrate, a measure of the computational power directed toward securing a blockchain through proof-of-work consensus, is a fundamental measure of preventing various attacks. This study tests the causal relationship between the hashrate and the security outcome of the Bitcoin blockchain. We use vector error correction modeling to analyze the endogenous relationships between the hashrate, Bitcoin price, and transaction fee, revealing the need for an additional variable to achieve our aim. Employing a measure summarizing the growth of demand factors in the Bitcoin ecosystem indicates that hashrate fluctuations significantly influence security level changes. This result underscores the importance of the hashrate in ensuring the security of the Bitcoin blockchain.
在区块链世界中,工作证明是决定账本共识的主要协议机制。哈希率是衡量通过工作证明共识确保区块链安全的计算能力的指标,是防止各种攻击的基本措施。本研究检验了哈希率与比特币区块链安全结果之间的因果关系。我们使用向量误差修正模型分析了哈希率、比特币价格和交易费之间的内生关系,揭示了需要一个额外变量来实现我们的目标。采用一种总结比特币生态系统需求增长因素的方法表明,哈希率的波动会显著影响安全级别的变化。这一结果强调了哈希率在确保比特币区块链安全方面的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Asymmetric connectedness between conventional and Islamic cryptocurrencies: Evidence from good and bad volatility spillovers 传统加密货币与伊斯兰加密货币之间的非对称关联性:好坏波动溢出效应的证据
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-06-03 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-024-00636-0
Elie Bouri, Mahdi Ghaemi Asl, Sahar Darehshiri, David Gabauer
This paper examines the dynamics of the asymmetric volatility spillovers across four major cryptocurrencies comprising nearly 61% of cryptocurrency market capitalization and covering both conventional (Bitcoin and Ethereum) and Islamic (Stellar and Ripple) cryptocurrencies. Using a novel time-varying parameter vector autoregression (TVP-VAR) asymmetric connectedness approach combined with a high frequency (hourly) dataset ranging from 1st June 2018 to 22nd July 2022, we find that (i) good and bad spillovers are time-varying; (ii) bad volatility spillovers are more pronounced than good spillovers; (iii) a strong asymmetry in the volatility spillovers exists in the cryptocurrency market; and (iv) conventional cryptocurrencies dominate Islamic cryptocurrencies. Specifically, Ethereum is the major net transmitter of positive volatility spillovers while Stellar is the main net transmitter of negative volatility spillovers.
本文研究了四种主要加密货币的非对称波动溢出效应动态,这四种加密货币占加密货币市值的近 61%,涵盖传统加密货币(比特币和以太坊)和伊斯兰加密货币(恒星币和瑞波币)。利用新颖的时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)非对称关联性方法,结合从 2018 年 6 月 1 日至 2022 年 7 月 22 日的高频(每小时)数据集,我们发现:(i) 好的和坏的溢出效应是时变的;(ii) 坏的波动溢出效应比好的溢出效应更明显;(iii) 加密货币市场的波动溢出效应存在很强的不对称性;(iv) 传统加密货币主导伊斯兰加密货币。具体而言,以太坊是正波动溢出效应的主要净传播者,而恒星则是负波动溢出效应的主要净传播者。
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引用次数: 0
Stock return prediction with multiple measures using neural network models 利用神经网络模型的多重衡量标准预测股票回报率
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-06-01 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00608-w
Cong Wang
In the field of empirical asset pricing, the challenges of high dimensionality, non-linear relationships, and interaction effects have led to the increasing popularity of machine learning (ML) methods. This study investigates the performance of ML methods when predicting different measures of stock returns from various factor models and investigates the feature importance and interaction effects among firm-specific variables and macroeconomic factors in this context. Our findings reveal that neural network models exhibit consistent performance across different stock return measures when they rely solely on firm-specific characteristic variables. However, the inclusion of macroeconomic factors from the financial market, real economic activities, and investor sentiment leads to substantial improvements in the model performance. Notably, the degree of improvement varies with the specific measures of stock returns under consideration. Furthermore, our analysis indicates that, after the inclusion of macroeconomic factors, there is a dissimilarity in model performance, variable importance, and interaction effects among macroeconomic and firm-specific variables, particularly concerning abnormal returns derived from the Fama–French three- and five-factor models compared with excess returns. This divergence is primarily attributed to the extent to which these factor models remove the variance associated with the macroeconomic variables. These findings collectively offer valuable insights into the efficacy of neural network models for stock return predictions and contribute to a deeper understanding of the intricate relationship between factor models, stock returns, and macroeconomic conditions in the domain of empirical asset pricing.
在实证资产定价领域,高维度、非线性关系和交互效应等挑战导致机器学习(ML)方法越来越受欢迎。本研究调查了 ML 方法在预测各种因素模型的不同股票回报率时的表现,并在此背景下调查了公司特定变量和宏观经济因素之间的特征重要性和交互效应。我们的研究结果表明,当神经网络模型仅依赖于公司特定特征变量时,它们在不同的股票回报率衡量标准中表现出一致的性能。但是,如果加入金融市场、实体经济活动和投资者情绪等宏观经济因素,模型的性能就会大幅提高。值得注意的是,改进的程度因所考虑的股票回报率的具体衡量标准而异。此外,我们的分析表明,在纳入宏观经济因素后,宏观经济变量和公司特定变量之间在模型性能、变量重要性和交互效应方面存在差异,特别是在法马-法兰克三因素和五因素模型得出的异常收益与超额收益之间。这种差异主要归因于这些因子模型在多大程度上消除了与宏观经济变量相关的方差。这些发现共同为神经网络模型预测股票收益的有效性提供了宝贵的见解,并有助于加深对实证资产定价领域中因子模型、股票收益和宏观经济条件之间错综复杂关系的理解。
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引用次数: 0
Stock price index analysis of four OPEC members: a Bayesian approach 欧佩克四个成员国的股票价格指数分析:贝叶斯方法
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-024-00651-1
Saman Hatamerad, Hossain Asgharpur, Bahram Adrangi, Jafar Haghighat
This study examines the relationship between macroeconomic variables and stock price indices of four prominent OPEC oil-exporting members. Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and regularized linear regression (RLR) are employed to address uncertainties arising from different estimation models and variable selection. Jointness is utilized to determine the nature of relationships among variable pairs. The case study spans macroeconomic variables and stock prices from 1996 to 2018. BMA findings reveal a strong positive association between stock price indices and both consumer price index (CPI) and broad money growth in each analyzed OPEC country. Additionally, the study suggests a weak negative correlation between OPEC oil prices and the stock price index. RLR results align with BMA analysis, offering insights valuable for policymakers and international wealth managers.
本研究探讨了欧佩克四个主要石油出口国的宏观经济变量与股票价格指数之间的关系。采用贝叶斯模型平均法(BMA)和正则化线性回归法(RLR)来解决不同估计模型和变量选择带来的不确定性。联合性用于确定变量对之间关系的性质。案例研究横跨 1996 年至 2018 年的宏观经济变量和股票价格。BMA 的研究结果表明,在所分析的每个欧佩克国家中,股票价格指数与消费者价格指数(CPI)和广义货币增长之间都存在很强的正相关关系。此外,研究还表明欧佩克石油价格与股票价格指数之间存在微弱的负相关性。RLR 的结果与 BMA 的分析一致,为政策制定者和国际财富管理者提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Asymmetric interactions among cutting-edge technologies and pioneering conventional and Islamic cryptocurrencies: fresh evidence from intra-day-based good and bad volatilities 尖端技术与先锋传统货币和伊斯兰加密货币之间的不对称互动:基于日内好坏波动率的新证据
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-05-29 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-024-00623-5
Mahdi Ghaemi Asl, David Roubaud
This study examines the nexus between the good and bad volatilities of three technological revolutions—financial technology (FinTech), the Internet of Things, and artificial intelligence and technology—as well as the two main conventional and Islamic cryptocurrency platforms, Bitcoin and Stellar, via three approaches: quantile cross-spectral coherence, quantile-VAR connectedness, and quantile-based non-linear causality-in-mean and variance analysis. The results are as follows: (1) under normal market conditions, in long-run horizons there is a significant positive cross-spectral relationship between FinTech's positive volatilities and Stellar’s negative volatilities; (2) Stellar’s negative and positive volatilities exhibit the highest net spillovers at the lower and upper tails, respectively; and (3) the quantile-based causality results indicate that Bitcoin’s good (bad) volatilities can lead to bad (good) volatilities in all three smart technologies operating between normal and bull market conditions. Moreover, the Bitcoin industry’s negative volatilities have a bilateral cause-and-effect relationship with FinTech’s positive volatilities. By analyzing the second moment, we found that Bitcoin's negative volatilities are the only cause variable that generates FinTech's good volatility in a unidirectional manner. As for Stellar, only bad volatilities have the potential to signal good volatilities for cutting-edge technologies in some middle quantiles, whereas good volatilities have no significant effect. Hence, the trade-off between Bitcoin and cutting-edge technologies, especially FinTech-related advancements, appear more broadly and randomly compared with the Stellar-innovative technologies nexus. The findings provide valuable insights for FinTech companies, blockchain developers, crypto-asset regulators, portfolio managers, and high-tech investors.
本研究通过量子交叉谱相干性、量子-VAR 关联性以及基于量子的非线性均值因果关系和方差分析这三种方法,研究了金融科技(FinTech)、物联网、人工智能和技术这三场技术革命以及比特币和恒星币这两大传统和伊斯兰加密货币平台的好坏波动率之间的联系。结果如下(1)在正常市场条件下,在长期视角中,金融科技的正波动率与恒星的负波动率之间存在显著的正交谱关系;(2)恒星的负波动率和正波动率分别在下尾和上尾表现出最高的净溢出效应;(3)基于量子的因果关系结果表明,比特币的好(坏)波动率会导致在正常市场和牛市条件下运行的三种智能技术的坏(好)波动率。此外,比特币行业的负波动率与金融科技行业的正波动率存在双边因果关系。通过分析第二时刻,我们发现比特币的负波动率是唯一以单向方式产生金融科技良好波动率的原因变量。至于恒星,只有坏的波动率才有可能在某些中间量级为尖端技术的好波动率提供信号,而好的波动率则没有显著影响。因此,与恒星-创新技术关系相比,比特币与尖端技术,尤其是与金融科技相关的进步之间的权衡显得更为广泛和随机。研究结果为金融科技公司、区块链开发商、加密资产监管机构、投资组合经理和高科技投资者提供了有价值的见解。
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引用次数: 0
How do emotions affect giving? Examining the effects of textual and facial emotions in charitable crowdfunding 情绪如何影响捐赠?研究慈善众筹中文字和面部情绪的影响
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-024-00630-6
Baozhou Lu, Tailai Xu, Weiguo Fan
{"title":"How do emotions affect giving? Examining the effects of textual and facial emotions in charitable crowdfunding","authors":"Baozhou Lu, Tailai Xu, Weiguo Fan","doi":"10.1186/s40854-024-00630-6","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1186/s40854-024-00630-6","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37175,"journal":{"name":"Financial Innovation","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":8.4,"publicationDate":"2024-05-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141100002","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":1,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
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Financial Innovation
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