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Volatility contagion between cryptocurrencies, gold and stock markets pre-and-during COVID-19: evidence using DCC-GARCH and cascade-correlation network COVID-19 前后加密货币、黄金和股票市场之间的波动传染:使用 DCC-GARCH 和级联相关网络的证据
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-03-11 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00605-z
Bassam A. Ibrahim, Ahmed A. Elamer, T. H. Alasker, Marwa A. Mohamed, Hussein A. Abdou
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引用次数: 0
An innovative machine learning workflow to research China’s systemic financial crisis with SHAP value and Shapley regression 利用 SHAP 值和 Shapley 回归研究中国系统性金融危机的创新机器学习工作流程
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-03-11 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00574-3
Da Wang, YingXue Zhou
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引用次数: 0
Market risk spillover and the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic fundamentals on market risk across Vietnamese sectors 市场风险溢出以及宏观经济基本面对越南各行业市场风险的非对称影响
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-03-08 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00602-2
Duc Hong Vo, Hung Le-Phuc Nguyen
Global economic downturns and multiple extreme events threaten Vietnam's economy, leading to a surge in stock market risk and significant spillovers. This study investigates market risk spillovers and explores the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic indicators on market risk across 24 sectors in Vietnam from 2012 to 2022. We use the value-at-risk (VaR) technique and a vector autoregression (VAR) model to estimate market risks and their spillovers across Vietnamese sectors. We then examine the asymmetric effects of macroeconomic indicators on market risk using a panel nonlinear autoregressive distribution lag (NARDL) model. Our results confirm that Vietnam’s market risk increases rapidly in response to extreme events. Additionally, market risks exhibit substantial inter-connectedness across the Vietnamese sectors. The Building Materials, Technology, and Securities sectors are primary risk transmitters, whereas the Minerals, Development Investment, and Education sectors are major risk absorbers. Our results also confirm that market risk responds asymmetrically to changes in interest rates, exchange rates (USD/VND), trade openness, financial development, and economic growth in the short and long run. Minerals, Oil & Gas, and Rubber are the sectors that are most affected by macroeconomic indicators in the long run. Based on these important findings, implications focused on limiting market risks and their spillovers, along with sustainable investing, have emerged.
全球经济衰退和多种极端事件威胁着越南的经济,导致股市风险激增并产生显著的溢出效应。本研究调查了市场风险溢出效应,并探讨了 2012 年至 2022 年宏观经济指标对越南 24 个行业市场风险的非对称影响。我们使用风险价值(VaR)技术和向量自回归(VAR)模型来估算越南各行业的市场风险及其溢出效应。然后,我们使用面板非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)模型研究了宏观经济指标对市场风险的非对称影响。我们的研究结果证实,越南的市场风险会随着极端事件的发生而迅速增加。此外,越南各行业的市场风险表现出很大的相互关联性。建材、技术和证券行业是主要的风险传递者,而矿产、发展投资和教育行业则是主要的风险吸收者。我们的研究结果还证实,从短期和长期来看,市场风险对利率、汇率(美元/越南盾)、贸易开放度、金融发展和经济增长的变化的反应是不对称的。从长期来看,矿产、石油和天然气以及橡胶行业受宏观经济指标的影响最大。基于这些重要发现,重点限制市场风险及其溢出效应以及可持续投资的意义已经显现。
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引用次数: 0
Return and volatility spillovers between non-fungible tokens and conventional currencies: evidence from the TVP-VAR model 不可兑换代币与传统货币之间的收益和波动溢出效应:TVP-VAR 模型提供的证据
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-03-07 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00570-7
Imran Yousaf, Manel Youssef, Mariya Gubareva
This study investigates the static and dynamic return and volatility spillovers between non-fungible tokens (NFTs) and conventional currencies using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressions approach. We reveal that the total connectedness between these markets is weak, implying that investors may increase the diversification benefits of their multicurrency portfolios by adding NFTs. We also find that NFTs are net transmitters of both return and volatility spillovers; however, in the case of return spillovers, the influence of NFTs on conventional currencies is more pronounced than that of volatility shock transmissions. The dynamic exercise reveals that the returns and volatility spillovers vary over time, largely increasing during the onset of the Covid-19 crisis, which deeply affected the relationship between NFTs and the conventional currencies markets. Our findings are useful for currency traders and NFT investors seeking to build effective cross-currency and cross-asset hedge strategies during systemic crises.
本研究采用时变参数向量自回归方法,研究了不可兑换代币(NFT)与传统货币之间的静态和动态回报与波动溢出效应。我们发现,这些市场之间的总体关联性较弱,这意味着投资者可以通过增加 NFT 来提高其多货币投资组合的多样化收益。我们还发现,NFT 是回报和波动溢出效应的净传递者;然而,就回报溢出效应而言,NFT 对传统货币的影响比波动冲击传递的影响更为明显。动态分析表明,收益和波动溢出效应随时间而变化,在 "科威德-19 "危机爆发期间,收益和波动溢出效应大幅增加,这深深影响了非金融产品与传统货币市场之间的关系。我们的研究结果对货币交易者和非金融期货投资者在系统性危机期间寻求建立有效的跨货币和跨资产对冲策略很有帮助。
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引用次数: 0
Do US states’ responses to COVID-19 restore investor sentiment? Evidence from S&P 500 financial institutions 美国各州对 COVID-19 的反应是否恢复了投资者情绪?来自标准普尔 500 指数金融机构的证据
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00603-1
Kaouther Chebbi, Aymen Ammari, Seyed Alireza Athari, Kashif Abbass
This paper specifically investigates the effects of US government emergency actions on the investor sentiment–financial institution stock returns relationship. Despite attempts by many studies, the literature still provides no answers concerning this nexus. Using a new firm-specific Twitter investor sentiment (TS) metric and performing a panel smooth transition regression for daily data on 66 S&P 500 financial institutions from January 1 to December 31, 2020, we find that TS acts asymmetrically, nonlinearly, and time varyingly according to the pandemic situation and US states’ responses to COVID-19. In other words, we uncover the nexus between TS and financial institution stock returns and determine that it changes with US states’ reactions to COVID-19. With a permissive government response (the first regime), TS does not impact financial institution stock returns; however, when moving to a strict government response (the overall government response index exceeds the 63.59 threshold), this positive effect becomes significant in the second regime. Moreover, the results show that the slope of the transition function is high, indicating an abrupt rather than a smooth transition between the first and second regimes. The results are robust and have important policy implications for policymakers, investment analysts, and portfolio managers.
本文专门研究了美国政府的紧急行动对投资者情绪-金融机构股票回报关系的影响。尽管有许多研究进行了尝试,但文献仍未就这一关系给出答案。我们使用新的特定公司 Twitter 投资者情绪(TS)指标,并对标普 500 指数中 66 家金融机构从 2020 年 1 月 1 日至 12 月 31 日的每日数据进行面板平滑过渡回归,发现根据大流行病形势和美国各州对 COVID-19 的反应,TS 的作用是非对称、非线性和随时间变化的。换句话说,我们揭示了 TS 与金融机构股票回报之间的关系,并确定它随着美国各州对 COVID-19 的反应而变化。在政府反应宽松的情况下(第一种机制),TS 对金融机构股票回报率没有影响;然而,当政府反应趋于严格(政府总体反应指数超过 63.59 临界值)时,这一积极影响在第二种机制中变得显著。此外,结果显示,过渡函数的斜率很高,表明第一和第二制度之间的过渡是突然的,而不是平稳的。结果是稳健的,对政策制定者、投资分析师和投资组合经理具有重要的政策意义。
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引用次数: 0
Can ETFs affect U.S. financial stability? A quantile cointegration analysis ETF 会影响美国金融稳定吗?量化协整分析
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-03-05 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00591-2
Juan Laborda, Ricardo Laborda, Javier de la Cruz
This study evaluates whether exchange traded funds (ETFs) threaten financial market stability by testing two hypotheses relating the growing importance of ETFs to increased market volatility and rising equity valuations. We estimate quantile cointegration models using Standard & Poor's 500 Index (S&P 500) and Chicago Board Options Exchange volatility Index (VIX) data for 1994–2020. We found that an increase in ETFs is positively and significantly related to the long-term valuation of the S&P 500 for quantile values above the median. By contrast, ETFs have only a negative and significant effect on the VIX for quantiles around the median. Ultimately, two novel results were obtained. First, the distortion in the value of the S&P 500 relative to its fundamentals is driven by investor flow into ETFs during a bull market. Second, the impact of equity ETFs on the VIX is only affected when fundamental factors are in play, decreasing it. Therefore, ETFs contribute to forming equity bubbles and support valuation market dynamics. Both regulators and policymakers should consider these conclusions.
本研究通过检验交易所交易基金(ETF)日益增长的重要性与市场波动性增加和股票估值上升相关的两个假设,评估交易所交易基金(ETF)是否威胁到金融市场的稳定性。我们使用标准普尔 500 指数(S&P 500)和芝加哥期权交易所波动率指数(VIX)1994-2020 年的数据估计了量化协整模型。我们发现,当量值高于中位数时,ETF 的增加与标准普尔 500 指数的长期估值呈显著正相关。相比之下,对于中位数附近的量化值,ETF 只对 VIX 有显著的负向影响。最终,我们得到了两个新的结果。首先,标普 500 指数的价值相对于其基本面的扭曲是由牛市期间投资者流入 ETF 驱动的。其次,股票 ETF 对 VIX 的影响只有在基本面因素发挥作用时才会受到影响,从而降低 VIX。因此,ETF 有助于形成股票泡沫,支持估值市场动态。监管机构和政策制定者都应考虑这些结论。
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引用次数: 0
Time-varying spillovers in high-order moments among cryptocurrencies 加密货币间高阶矩的时变溢出效应
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-03-04 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-024-00612-8
Asil Azimli
This study uses high-frequency (1-min) price data to examine the connectedness among the leading cryptocurrencies (i.e. Bitcoin, Ethereum, Binance, Cardano, Litecoin, and Ripple) at volatility and high-order (third and fourth orders in this paper) moments based on skewness and kurtosis. The sample period is from February 10, 2020, to August 20, 2022, which captures a pandemic, wartime, cryptocurrency market crashes, and the full collapse of a stablecoin. Using a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) connectedness approach, we find that the total dynamic connectedness throughout all realized estimators grows with the time frequency of the data. Moreover, all estimators are time dependent and affected by significant events. As an exception, the Russia–Ukraine War did not increase the total connectedness among cryptocurrencies. Analysis of third- and fourth-order moments reveals additional dynamics not captured by the second moments, highlighting the importance of analyzing higher moments when studying systematic crash and fat-tail risks in the cryptocurrency market. Additional tests show that rolling-window-based VAR models do not reveal these patterns. Regarding the directional risk transmissions, Binance was a consistent net transmitter in all three connectedness systems and it dominated the volatility connectedness network. In contrast, skewness and kurtosis connectedness networks were dominated by Litecoin and Bitcoin and Ripple were net shock receivers in all three networks. These findings are expected to serve as a guide for portfolio optimization, risk management, and policy-making practices.
本研究使用高频(1 分钟)价格数据来研究主要加密货币(即比特币、以太坊、Binance、Cardano、莱特币和瑞波币)之间在波动率和高阶(本文中为三阶和四阶)时刻的关联性,其基础是偏度和峰度。样本时间段为 2020 年 2 月 10 日至 2022 年 8 月 20 日,其中包含了大流行病、战争时期、加密货币市场崩溃以及稳定币的全面崩溃。利用时变参数向量自回归(TVP-VAR)连通性方法,我们发现所有已实现估计器的总动态连通性随着数据的时间频率而增长。此外,所有估计值都与时间有关,并受到重大事件的影响。作为例外,俄乌战争并没有增加加密货币之间的总连通性。对三阶和四阶矩的分析揭示了二阶矩捕捉不到的额外动态,突出了在研究加密货币市场的系统性崩溃和肥尾风险时分析高阶矩的重要性。其他测试表明,基于滚动窗口的 VAR 模型并不能揭示这些模式。在方向性风险传递方面,Binance 在所有三个连通性系统中都是一致的净传递者,并且在波动性连通性网络中占主导地位。相比之下,偏度和峰度连通性网络由莱特币主导,比特币和瑞波币在所有三个网络中都是净冲击接收者。这些发现有望为投资组合优化、风险管理和政策制定实践提供指导。
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引用次数: 0
Examining user behavior with machine learning for effective mobile peer-to-peer payment adoption 利用机器学习研究用户行为,有效采用移动点对点支付技术
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-03-02 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-024-00625-3
Blanco-Oliver Antonio, Lara-Rubio Juan, Irimia-Diéguez Ana, Liébana-Cabanillas Francisco
Disruptive innovations caused by FinTech (i.e., technology-assisted customized financial services) have brought digital peer-to-peer (P2P) payments to the fore. In this challenging environment and based on theories about customer behavior in response to technological innovations, this paper identifies the drivers of consumer adoption of mobile P2P payments and develops a machine learning model to predict the use of this thriving payment option. To do so, we use a unique data set with information from 701 participants (observations) who completed a questionnaire about the adoption of Bizum, a leading mobile P2P platform worldwide. The respondent profile was the average Spanish citizen within the framework of European culture and lifestyle. We document (in this order of priority) the usefulness of mobile P2P payments, influence of peers and other social groups such as friends, family, and colleagues on individual behavior (that is, subjective norms), perceived trust, and enjoyment of the user experience within the digital context and how those attributes better classify (potential) users of mobile P2P payments. We also find that nonparametric approaches based on machine learning algorithms outperform traditional parametric methods. Finally, our results show that feature selection based on random forest, such as the Boruta procedure, as a preprocessing technique substantially increases prediction performance while reducing noise, redundancy of the resulting model, and computational costs. The main limitation of this research is that it only has a place within the sociocultural and institutional framework of the Spanish population. It is therefore desirable to replicate this study by surveying people from other countries to analyze the effects of the institutional environment on the adoption of mobile P2P payments.
金融科技(即技术辅助的定制化金融服务)带来的颠覆性创新使数字点对点(P2P)支付脱颖而出。在这一充满挑战的环境中,本文以客户应对技术创新的行为理论为基础,确定了消费者采用移动点对点支付的驱动因素,并开发了一个机器学习模型来预测这一蓬勃发展的支付方式的使用情况。为此,我们使用了一个独特的数据集,其中包含来自 701 名参与者(观察对象)的信息,他们填写了一份关于采用全球领先的移动 P2P 平台 Bizum 的调查问卷。受访者是欧洲文化和生活方式框架下的普通西班牙公民。我们记录了(按优先顺序排列的)移动 P2P 支付的实用性、同伴和其他社会群体(如朋友、家人和同事)对个人行为的影响(即主观规范)、感知信任和数字环境下的用户体验,以及这些属性如何更好地对移动 P2P 支付的(潜在)用户进行分类。我们还发现,基于机器学习算法的非参数方法优于传统的参数方法。最后,我们的研究结果表明,基于随机森林的特征选择(如 Boruta 程序)作为一种预处理技术,可大幅提高预测性能,同时降低噪音、所生成模型的冗余度和计算成本。这项研究的主要局限性在于,它仅适用于西班牙人口的社会文化和制度框架。因此,我们希望通过对其他国家的人进行调查来复制这项研究,以分析制度环境对采用移动 P2P 支付的影响。
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引用次数: 0
Does the issuance of green bonds nudge environmental responsibility engagements? Evidence from the Chinese green bond market 发行绿色债券是否会推动环境责任参与?来自中国绿色债券市场的证据
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-024-00620-8
Ying Liu, Hongyun Huang, William Mbanyele, Fengrong Wang, Huiling Liu
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引用次数: 0
Cryptocurrency competition: empirical testing of Hayek’s vision of private monies 加密货币竞争:哈耶克私人货币愿景的实证检验
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-03-01 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00600-4
Fabian Mayer, Peter Bofinger
This study investigated the extent of currency competition within the cryptocurrency market through the Hayek’s concept of the denationalization of money. Hayek’s original analysis primarily centered on competition revolving around the medium of the exchange function. This study posited that cryptocurrencies compete across diverse monetary functions, particularly concerning their roles as speculative stores of value and exchange media. This assertion provided insight into the distinction between Hayek’s envisaged private currencies and the cryptocurrency paradigm. Utilizing an extensive dataset encompassing 101 cryptocurrencies spanning from 2016 to 2022, an empirical exploration was conducted to scrutinize the progression and intensity of competition within the broader cryptocurrency market and its submarkets. These findings reveal a robust competition among unpegged cryptocurrencies, predominantly contending for speculative investment purposes. Similarly, there is pronounced competition among stablecoins as stable stores of value. In contrast, competition is much less pronounced concerning the medium of the exchange function, potentially entailing network effects and the emergence of monopolistic tendencies within this specific submarket.
本研究通过哈耶克的货币非国有化概念,研究了加密货币市场中的货币竞争程度。哈耶克最初的分析主要集中于围绕交换媒介功能的竞争。本研究认为,加密货币在不同货币功能方面存在竞争,特别是在其作为投机性价值储存和交换媒介的作用方面。这一论断有助于深入了解哈耶克设想的私人货币与加密货币范式之间的区别。利用从 2016 年到 2022 年涵盖 101 种加密货币的广泛数据集,进行了实证探索,以仔细研究更广泛的加密货币市场及其子市场内竞争的进展和强度。这些发现揭示了未挂钩加密货币之间的激烈竞争,主要是出于投机性投资目的的竞争。同样,作为稳定价值存储的稳定币之间也存在明显的竞争。相比之下,在交换功能的媒介方面,竞争就不那么明显了,可能会产生网络效应,并在这一特定子市场中出现垄断倾向。
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引用次数: 0
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Financial Innovation
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