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When you need them, they are not there: hedge capacities of cryptocurrencies disappear in downtrend markets 当你需要它们时,它们却不在:加密货币的避险能力在下跌市场中消失了
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-05-24 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-024-00638-y
A. Bossman, Mariya Gubareva, S. Agyei, Xuan vinh Vo
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引用次数: 0
On the robust drivers of cryptocurrency liquidity: the case of Bitcoin 加密货币流动性的强劲驱动力:比特币案例
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-05-22 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00598-9
Walid M. A. Ahmed
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引用次数: 0
Price dynamics and volatility jumps in bitcoin options 比特币期权的价格动态和波动率跳跃
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-024-00653-z
Kuo Shing Chen, J. J. Yang
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引用次数: 0
Managing crash risks through supply chain transparency: evidence from China 通过供应链透明度管理碰撞风险:来自中国的证据
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-05-20 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-024-00633-3
Qiming Zhong, Qinghua Song, Chien‐Chiang Lee
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引用次数: 0
The implications of the ecological footprint and renewable energy usage on the financial stability of South Asian countries 生态足迹和可再生能源的使用对南亚国家金融稳定的影响
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-05-10 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-024-00627-1
Muhammad Imran, Muhammad Kamran Khan, Shabbir Alam, Salman Wahab, Muhammad Tufail, Zhang Jijian
This study explores the complex relationships involving ecological footprints, energy use, carbon emissions, governance efficiency, economic prosperity, and financial stability in South Asian nations spanning the period from 2000 to 2022. Employing various methodologies such as cross-sectional dependence tests, co-integration analysis, and first- and second-generation unit-root tests, we use a panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag model, feasible generalized least squares, and Panel Corrected Standard Errors to ensure the robustness of our findings. We find noteworthy positive correlations between several variables, including heightened ecological consciousness, effective governance structures, increased GDP per capita, and amplified CO2 emissions. These relationships suggest potential pathways to strengthen the financial stability of the entire region; they also highlight the latent potential of embracing ecologically sustainable practices to fortify economic resilience. Our results also underscore the pivotal role of appropriate governance structures and higher income levels in bolstering financial stability in South Asian countries. Interestingly, we also find negative coefficients associated with the use of renewable energy, suggesting that escalating the adoption of renewable energy could create financial instability. This finding stresses the importance of diversification in energy strategies, cautioning policymakers to carefully consider the financial ramifications of potentially costly imports of renewable energy sources while seeking to reduce carbon emissions, emphasizing the need to strike a balance between ambitious sustainability goals and the pursuit of sustained economic robustness in the region. In considering the implications of these findings, it is crucial to consider each country’s broader socioeconomic context. Our results offer valuable insights for policymakers in developing renewable energy strategies.
本研究探讨了 2000 年至 2022 年期间南亚国家的生态足迹、能源使用、碳排放、治理效率、经济繁荣和金融稳定之间的复杂关系。我们采用了横截面依赖性检验、协整分析、第一代和第二代单位根检验等多种方法,使用了面板自回归分布滞后模型、可行的广义最小二乘法和面板校正标准误差,以确保研究结果的稳健性。我们发现几个变量之间存在值得注意的正相关关系,包括生态意识的提高、有效的治理结构、人均 GDP 的增加以及二氧化碳排放量的增加。这些关系为加强整个地区的金融稳定性提供了潜在的途径;它们还凸显了采用生态可持续实践来加强经济韧性的潜在潜力。我们的研究结果还强调了适当的治理结构和较高的收入水平在增强南亚国家金融稳定性方面的关键作用。有趣的是,我们还发现了与可再生能源的使用相关的负系数,这表明可再生能源的应用升级可能会造成金融不稳定。这一发现强调了能源战略多样化的重要性,告诫政策制定者在寻求减少碳排放的同时,应仔细考虑进口可再生能源可能带来的高成本金融后果,强调需要在雄心勃勃的可持续发展目标和追求该地区持续经济稳健性之间取得平衡。在考虑这些发现的影响时,关键是要考虑每个国家更广泛的社会经济背景。我们的研究结果为决策者制定可再生能源战略提供了宝贵的见解。
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引用次数: 0
Connectedness of cryptocurrency markets to crude oil and gold: an analysis of the effect of COVID-19 pandemic 加密货币市场与原油和黄金的关联性:COVID-19 大流行的影响分析
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-05-08 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00596-x
Parisa Foroutan, Salim Lahmiri
The notion that investors shift to gold during economic market crises remains unverified for many cryptocurrency markets. This paper investigates the connectedness between the 10 most traded cryptocurrencies and gold as well as crude oil markets pre-COVID-19 and during COVID-19. Through the application of various statistical techniques, including cointegration tests, vector autoregressive models, vector error correction models, autoregressive distributed lag models, and Granger causality analyses, we explore the relationship between these markets and assess the safe-haven properties of gold and crude oil for cryptocurrencies. Our findings reveal that during the COVID-19 pandemic, gold is a strong safe-haven for Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Monero while demonstrating a weaker safe-haven potential for Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Chainlink, and Cardano. In contrast, gold only exhibits a strong safe-haven characteristic before the pandemic for Litecoin and Monero. Additionally, Brent crude oil emerges as a strong safe-haven for Bitcoin during COVID-19, while West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oils demonstrate weaker safe-haven properties for Ether, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, and Monero. Furthermore, the Granger causality analysis indicates that before the COVID-19 pandemic, the causal relationship predominantly flowed from gold and crude oil toward the cryptocurrency markets; however, during the COVID-19 period, the direction of causality shifted, with cryptocurrencies exerting influence on the gold and crude oil markets. These findings provide subtle implications for policymakers, hedge fund managers, and individual or institutional cryptocurrency investors. Our results highlight the need to adapt risk exposure strategies during financial turmoil, such as the crisis precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic.
对于许多加密货币市场而言,投资者在经济市场危机期间转向黄金的观点仍未得到验证。本文研究了 COVID-19 前和 COVID-19 期间交易量最大的 10 种加密货币与黄金和原油市场之间的联系。通过应用各种统计技术,包括协整检验、向量自回归模型、向量误差修正模型、自回归分布滞后模型和格兰杰因果关系分析,我们探讨了这些市场之间的关系,并评估了黄金和原油对加密货币的避险属性。我们的研究结果表明,在 COVID-19 大流行期间,黄金对比特币、莱特币和门罗币具有很强的避险功能,而对比特币现金、EOS、链链和卡达诺的避险潜力较弱。相比之下,黄金仅在大流行之前对莱特币和门罗币表现出较强的避险特性。此外,在 COVID-19 期间,布伦特原油成为比特币的强大避险工具,而西德州中质原油和布伦特原油对以太币、比特币现金、EOS 和 Monero 的避险属性较弱。此外,格兰杰因果关系分析表明,在 COVID-19 大流行之前,因果关系主要是从黄金和原油流向加密货币市场;然而,在 COVID-19 期间,因果关系的方向发生了转变,加密货币对黄金和原油市场产生了影响。这些发现为政策制定者、对冲基金经理以及个人或机构加密货币投资者提供了微妙的启示。我们的研究结果凸显了在金融动荡(如 COVID-19 大流行引发的危机)期间调整风险敞口策略的必要性。
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引用次数: 0
An evaluation of the adequacy of Lévy and extreme value tail risk estimates 评估莱维和极值尾部风险估计值的适当性
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-05-03 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-024-00614-6
Sharif Mozumder, M. Kabir Hassan, M. Humayun Kabir
This study investigates the simplicity and adequacy of tail-based risk measures—value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES)—when applied to tail targeting of the extreme value (EV) model. We implement Lévy–VaR and ES risk measures as full density-based alternatives to the generalized Pareto VaR and the generalized Pareto ES of the tail-targeting EV model. Using data on futures contracts of S&P500, FTSE100, DAX, Hang Seng, and Nikkei 225 during the Global Financial Crisis of 2007–2008, we find that the simplicity of tail-based risk management with a tail-targeting EV model is more attractive. However, the performance of EV risk estimates is not necessarily superior to that of full density-based relatively complex Lévy risk estimates, which may not always give us more robust VaR and ES results, making the model inadequate from a practical perspective. There is randomness in the estimation performances under both approaches for different data ranges and coverage levels. Such mixed results imply that banks, financial institutions, and policymakers should find a way to compromise or trade-off between “simplicity” and user-defined “adequacy”.
本研究探讨了基于尾部的风险度量--风险价值(VaR)和预期缺口(ES)--在应用于极值(EV)模型的尾部目标时的简单性和充分性。我们将 Lévy-VaR 和 ES 风险度量作为基于全密度的替代方案,以取代尾部目标极值模型的广义帕累托 VaR 和广义帕累托 ES。利用 2007-2008 年全球金融危机期间 S&P500、FTSE100、DAX、恒生指数和日经 225 指数期货合约的数据,我们发现使用尾部目标 EV 模型进行基于尾部的风险管理的简易性更具吸引力。然而,EV 风险估计的表现并不一定优于基于全密度的相对复杂的 Lévy 风险估计,后者不一定总能给我们带来更稳健的 VaR 和 ES 结果,这使得该模型在实用性方面存在不足。对于不同的数据范围和覆盖水平,两种方法的估计结果都存在随机性。这种好坏参半的结果意味着银行、金融机构和政策制定者应该在 "简单性 "和用户定义的 "充分性 "之间找到一种折中或权衡的方法。
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引用次数: 0
The use of high-frequency data in cryptocurrency research: a meta-review of literature with bibliometric analysis 加密货币研究中高频数据的使用:文献元综述与文献计量分析
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-05-01 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00595-y
Muhammad Anas, Syed Jawad Hussain Shahzad, Larisa Yarovaya
As the crypto-asset ecosystem matures, the use of high-frequency data has become increasingly common in decentralized finance literature. Using bibliometric analysis, we characterize the existing cryptocurrency literature that employs high-frequency data. We highlighted the most influential authors, articles, and journals based on 189 articles from the Scopus database from 2015 to 2022. This approach enables us to identify emerging trends and research hotspots with the aid of co-citation and cartographic analyses. It shows knowledge expansion through authors’ collaboration in cryptocurrency research with co-authorship analysis. We identify four major streams of research: (i) return prediction and measurement of cryptocurrency volatility, (ii) (in)efficiency of cryptocurrencies, (iii) price dynamics and bubbles in cryptocurrencies, and (iv) the diversification, safe haven, and hedging properties of Bitcoin. We conclude that highly traded cryptocurrencies’ investment features and economic outcomes are analyzed predominantly on a tick-by-tick basis. This study also provides recommendations for future studies.
随着加密资产生态系统的成熟,高频数据的使用在去中心化金融文献中变得越来越普遍。通过文献计量分析,我们描述了采用高频数据的现有加密货币文献的特点。我们根据 Scopus 数据库中 2015 年至 2022 年的 189 篇文章,突出了最有影响力的作者、文章和期刊。这种方法使我们能够借助共引和制图分析来识别新兴趋势和研究热点。它通过合著分析展示了作者在加密货币研究中的合作所带来的知识扩展。我们确定了四个主要研究方向:(i) 回报预测和加密货币波动的测量,(ii) 加密货币的(不)效率,(iii) 加密货币的价格动态和泡沫,以及 (iv) 比特币的多样化、避风港和对冲属性。我们的结论是,对交易量大的加密货币的投资特征和经济结果的分析主要是以逐点为基础的。本研究还为今后的研究提供了建议。
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引用次数: 0
The power of financial support in accelerating digital transformation and corporate innovation in China: evidence from banking and capital markets 金融支持在加速中国数字化转型和企业创新中的力量:来自银行业和资本市场的证据
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-04-25 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00584-1
Zhuoya Du, Qian Wang
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting relative returns for S&P 500 stocks using machine learning 利用机器学习预测标准普尔 500 指数股票的相对回报率
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2024-04-20 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-024-00644-0
Htet Htet Htun, Michael Biehl, Nicolai Petkov
Forecasting changes in stock prices is extremely challenging given that numerous factors cause these prices to fluctuate. The random walk hypothesis and efficient market hypothesis essentially state that it is not possible to systematically, reliably predict future stock prices or forecast changes in the stock market overall. Nonetheless, machine learning (ML) techniques that use historical data have been applied to make such predictions. Previous studies focused on a small number of stocks and claimed success with limited statistical confidence. In this study, we construct feature vectors composed of multiple previous relative returns and apply the random forest (RF), support vector machine (SVM), and long short-term memory (LSTM) ML methods as classifiers to predict whether a stock can return 2% more than its index in the following 10 days. We apply this approach to all S&P 500 companies for the period 2017–2022. We assess performance using accuracy, precision, and recall and compare our results with a random choice strategy. We observe that the LSTM classifier outperforms RF and SVM, and the data-driven ML methods outperform the random choice classifier (p = 8.46e−17 for accuracy of LSTM). Thus, we demonstrate that the probability that the random walk and efficient market hypotheses hold in the considered context is negligibly small.
由于导致股票价格波动的因素众多,因此预测股票价格的变化极具挑战性。随机漫步假说和有效市场假说的本质是,不可能系统、可靠地预测未来股票价格或预测股市的整体变化。然而,使用历史数据的机器学习(ML)技术已被用于进行此类预测。以前的研究主要集中在少数股票上,并声称取得了成功,但统计置信度有限。在本研究中,我们构建了由之前多个相对回报率组成的特征向量,并应用随机森林(RF)、支持向量机(SVM)和长短期记忆(LSTM)ML 方法作为分类器,来预测一只股票在接下来的 10 天内的回报率是否能比其指数高出 2%。我们将这种方法应用于 2017-2022 年期间的所有标准普尔 500 指数公司。我们使用准确率、精确度和召回率评估性能,并将结果与随机选择策略进行比较。我们发现,LSTM 分类器的表现优于 RF 和 SVM,而数据驱动的 ML 方法的表现优于随机选择分类器(LSTM 的准确率 p = 8.46e-17)。因此,我们证明,在所考虑的情况下,随机漫步和有效市场假说成立的概率小到可以忽略不计。
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Financial Innovation
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