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How do supply or demand shocks affect the US oil market? 供需冲击如何影响美国石油市场?
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-01-14 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00561-8
José Carlos Vides, Julia Feria, Antonio A. Golpe, Juan Manuel Martín-Álvarez
The study of the relationship between crude oil and its refined products prices may be perceived as an important tool for testing how are the dynamics and the type of integration of the petro-derivatives market in the United States. In this sense, we have applied a set of causality tests to study the possible presence of asymmetries in the relationship between WTI crude oil and each refined product price and to explore the type of market integration. Furthermore, the application of these causality tests lets us explore the validation of different hypotheses in the literature, such as the Rocket and Feathers hypothesis and the Verleger hypothesis. Our findings reveal that Reformulated Gasoline Blendstock for Oxygen Blending (RBOB), heating oil, diesel and kerosene are supply-driven integrated and conventional gasoline and kerosene are demand-driven integrated when linear effects are assessed. This behaviour changes deeply when the existence of asymmetries is tested, noticing that the Rocket and Feathers hypothesis is not fulfilled when a negative shock appears. Conversely, the Verleger hypothesis is supported when a negative shock appears for conventional gasoline and kerosene. These results provide important policy implications for investors, energy policymakers and refiners.
原油与其成品油价格之间关系的研究可被视为测试美国石油衍生品市场动态和一体化类型的重要工具。从这个意义上说,我们应用了一系列因果关系检验来研究 WTI 原油与每种成品油价格之间关系中可能存在的非对称性,并探索市场一体化的类型。此外,通过这些因果检验,我们还可以探索文献中不同假说的验证情况,如火箭和羽毛假说以及 Verleger 假说。我们的研究结果表明,在评估线性效应时,用于掺氧的重配汽油(RBOB)、取暖油、柴油和煤油是供应驱动的一体化,而传统汽油和煤油是需求驱动的一体化。在检验是否存在非对称性时,这种行为发生了深刻变化,注意到当出现负面冲击时,火箭和羽毛假说并不成立。相反,当传统汽油和煤油出现负面冲击时,Verleger 假设得到支持。这些结果为投资者、能源政策制定者和炼油商提供了重要的政策启示。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of conventional and digital investment advisory decisions: a systematic literature review 传统和数字投资咨询决策的决定因素:系统文献综述
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-01-14 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00538-7
Fabian Wagner
The growing demand for digital investment advisory services and the advancing technological process led to increased attention to this topic in recent literature. In light of these developments, the question arises whether conventional and digital advisors behave differently in their investment advisory decisions. I therefore conducted a systematic literature review and evaluated 97 publications on the determinants of conventional and digital investment advisory decisions. Based on the literature, five main determinants were identified that are important for investment advisory decisions. These determinants are identical for both variants of the advice, but there are differences in the way they are addressed. This systematic literature review provides an overview of the current state of research and can therefore help identify areas where investment advice can be improved in the future.
随着对数字投资咨询服务需求的不断增长和技术进程的不断进步,最近的文献越来越关注这一话题。鉴于这些发展,人们提出了这样一个问题:传统顾问和数字顾问在投资咨询决策中的行为是否有所不同?因此,我进行了系统的文献综述,评估了 97 篇关于传统和数字投资咨询决策决定因素的文献。根据这些文献,我们确定了对投资咨询决策至关重要的五个主要决定因素。这些决定因素对于两种咨询方式都是相同的,但在处理方式上存在差异。这篇系统的文献综述概述了当前的研究现状,因此有助于确定未来可以改进投资咨询的领域。
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引用次数: 0
A framework to improve churn prediction performance in retail banking 提高零售银行客户流失预测性能的框架
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-01-13 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00558-3
João B. G. Brito, Guilherme B. Bucco, Rodrigo Heldt, João L. Becker, Cleo S. Silveira, Fernando B. Luce, Michel J. Anzanello
Managing customer retention is critical to a company’s profitability and firm value. However, predicting customer churn is challenging. The extant research on the topic mainly focuses on the type of model developed to predict churn, devoting little or no effort to data preparation methods. These methods directly impact the identification of patterns, increasing the model’s predictive performance. We addressed this problem by (1) employing feature engineering methods to generate a set of potential predictor features suitable for the banking industry and (2) preprocessing the majority and minority classes to improve the learning of the classification model pattern. The framework encompasses state-of-the-art data preprocessing methods: (1) feature engineering with recency, frequency, and monetary value concepts to address the imbalanced dataset issue, (2) oversampling using the adaptive synthetic sampling algorithm, and (3) undersampling using NEASMISS algorithm. After data preprocessing, we use XGBoost and elastic net methods for churn prediction. We validated the proposed framework with a dataset of more than 3 million customers and about 170 million transactions. The framework outperformed alternative methods reported in the literature in terms of precision-recall area under curve, accuracy, recall, and specificity. From a practical perspective, the framework provides managers with valuable information to predict customer churn and develop strategies for customer retention in the banking industry.
管理客户保留率对公司的盈利能力和企业价值至关重要。然而,预测客户流失是一项挑战。现有的相关研究主要集中在为预测客户流失而开发的模型类型上,很少或根本没有研究数据准备方法。这些方法会直接影响模式的识别,从而提高模型的预测性能。我们通过以下方法解决了这一问题:(1)采用特征工程方法生成一组适合银行业的潜在预测特征;(2)对多数类和少数类进行预处理,以改进分类模型模式的学习。该框架涵盖了最先进的数据预处理方法:(1)使用重复性、频率和货币价值概念进行特征工程,以解决不平衡数据集问题;(2)使用自适应合成采样算法进行超采样;以及(3)使用 NEASMISS 算法进行欠采样。数据预处理后,我们使用 XGBoost 和弹性网方法进行流失预测。我们用一个包含 300 多万客户和约 1.7 亿笔交易的数据集验证了所提出的框架。在精确度-召回曲线下面积、准确度、召回率和特异性方面,该框架优于文献中报道的其他方法。从实用的角度来看,该框架为管理者预测客户流失和制定银行业客户挽留策略提供了宝贵的信息。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of financial literacy, perceived access to finance, ICT use, and digitization on credit constraints: evidence from Qatari MSME importers 金融扫盲、可感知的融资渠道、信息和通信技术的使用以及数字化对信贷限制的影响:来自卡塔尔中小微企业进口商的证据
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-01-12 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00557-4
Lanouar Charfeddine, Mohamed Ismail Umlai, Mazen El-Masri
This study investigates the role of financial literacy (FL), perceived access to finance (PAF), information communication technology (ICT) usage, and digitization in alleviating the level of credit constraint that micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) face in an emerging market. We draw on the economic research theories of human capital, knowledge-based view, and lifecycle hypothesis to explain the relationship between the variables. Using survey data collected from 333 MSME importers in Qatar—a country with heavy reliance on foreign goods—we find strong evidence that FL, PAF, ICT usage, and digitization are key determinants of Qatari MSME access to credit. In particular, PAF and FL are significant and have their expected signs in almost all the Probit regressions. For ICT usage and digitization, although they are key determinants of credit constraints, the findings are more sensitive and dependent on the type of financing and the resulting type of credit constraint.
本研究探讨了金融知识(FL)、融资渠道感知(PAF)、信息通信技术(ICT)的使用以及数字化在缓解新兴市场中微型和中小型企业(MSMEs)所面临的信贷约束水平方面的作用。我们借鉴了人力资本、知识观和生命周期假设等经济研究理论来解释变量之间的关系。通过对卡塔尔--一个严重依赖外国商品的国家--333 家中小微企业进口商的调查数据,我们发现了强有力的证据表明,FL、PAF、信息和通信技术的使用以及数字化是卡塔尔中小微企业获得信贷的关键决定因素。特别是,在几乎所有的 Probit 回归中,PAF 和 FL 都是显著的,并且具有预期的符号。至于信息和通信技术的使用和数字化,虽然它们是信贷限制的关键决定因素,但研究结果更为敏感,并取决于融资类型和由此产生的信贷限制类型。
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引用次数: 0
The impact of prestigious attorneys on IPO withdrawal in the global primary market 著名律师对全球一级市场 IPO 退市的影响
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-01-09 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00555-6
Fouad Jamaani, Manal Alidarous
This study aims to determine whether the involvement of prestigious attorneys in issuing companies affects withdrawals in the initial public offering (IPO) market. There is little evidence on how the involvement of famous lawyers affects IPO withdrawal. The study considers a large dataset consisting of 24,312 IPOs that were either successful or withdrawn from 22 distinct IPO marketplaces between January 1995 and December 2019. We find that IPO issuers may benefit from engaging with reputed attorneys by leveraging exceptional legal or negotiating abilities as quality certification signals to reduce IPO investors’ ex-ante uncertainty. Here, the objective is to protect their IPOs from withdrawal of at least by 22%. Multiple robustness tests validate the reliability of the results of this study. These findings have significant implications for researchers, legislators, investors, and issuers.
本研究旨在确定著名律师参与发行公司是否会影响首次公开募股(IPO)市场的退出情况。关于知名律师的参与如何影响 IPO 退出的证据很少。本研究使用了一个大型数据集,其中包括 1995 年 1 月至 2019 年 12 月期间在 22 个不同的 IPO 市场上成功上市或退出的 24,312 个 IPO。我们发现,IPO发行人可能会从与知名律师的合作中获益,利用卓越的法律或谈判能力作为质量认证信号,降低IPO投资者事前的不确定性。在此,目标是保护其 IPO 免于至少 22% 的撤回。多重稳健性测试验证了本研究结果的可靠性。这些发现对研究人员、立法者、投资者和发行人都有重要意义。
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引用次数: 0
Realized volatility spillovers between energy and metal markets: a time-varying connectedness approach 能源和金属市场之间的实际波动溢出效应:时变关联性方法
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-01-08 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00554-7
Juncal Cunado, David Gabauer, Rangan Gupta
This paper analyzes the degree of dynamic connectedness between energy and metal commodity prices in the pre and post-COVID-19 era, using the time-varying parameter vector autoregressive connectedness approach of Antonakakis et al. (J Risk Financ Manag 13(4):84, 2020). The results suggest that market interconnectedness increased slightly following the outbreak of COVID-19, although this increase was lower and less persistent than that observed after the Global Financial Crisis of 2008. Furthermore, we find that crude oil was the main net transmitter of shocks before COVID-19 while heating oil, gold, and silver were the main net transmitters of shocks during the COVID-19 pandemic. In contrast, natural gas and palladium were the main net receivers of shocks during the entire sample period, making these two commodities attractive hedging and safe haven options for investors during the pandemic. Overall, our results suggest that hedging and diversification opportunities decrease during crises. Furthermore, they indicate that accurate forecasts of the volatility of several commodities, such as natural gas and different metals, can be obtained by exploiting the information content of crude oil. However, they also reveal that crude oil lost its leading position as a net shock transmitter during the COVID-19 pandemic.
本文采用 Antonakakis 等人的时变参数向量自回归关联性方法(J Risk Financ Manag 13(4):84, 2020),分析了 COVID-19 前后能源和金属商品价格之间的动态关联程度。结果表明,在 COVID-19 爆发后,市场互联性略有增加,但与 2008 年全球金融危机后观察到的市场互联性相比,这种增加较低且持续性较差。此外,我们还发现,在 COVID-19 爆发之前,原油是冲击的主要净传播者,而在 COVID-19 大流行期间,取暖油、黄金和白银则是冲击的主要净传播者。与此相反,天然气和钯在整个样本期间是冲击的主要净接收者,这两种商品在大流行期间对投资者来说是有吸引力的对冲和避险选择。总体而言,我们的研究结果表明,危机期间对冲和分散投资的机会减少。此外,这些结果还表明,利用原油的信息含量,可以准确预测天然气和不同金属等几种商品的波动性。不过,它们也揭示出,在 COVID-19 大流行期间,原油失去了其作为净冲击传播者的领先地位。
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引用次数: 0
On the efficiency and its drivers in the cryptocurrency market: the case of Bitcoin and Ethereum 加密货币市场的效率及其驱动因素:比特币和以太坊的案例
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-01-08 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00566-3
Khaled Mokni, Ghassen El Montasser, A. Ajmi, Elie Bouri
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引用次数: 0
Forecasting VaR and ES by using deep quantile regression, GANs-based scenario generation, and heterogeneous market hypothesis 利用深度量化回归、基于 GANs 的情景生成和异质市场假说预测 VaR 和 ES
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-01-07 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00564-5
Jianzhou Wang, Shuai Wang, Mengzheng Lv, He Jiang
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引用次数: 0
Disaggregated effect of construction investments on the Saudi economy: a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Saudi Arabia 建筑投资对沙特经济的分类影响:沙特阿拉伯的动态可计算一般均衡模型
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-01-06 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00530-1
Irfan Ahmed, Khadija Mehrez, Claudio Socci, Stefano Deriu, Naif M. Mathkur, Ian P. Casasr
The role of the construction industry in economic growth has been widely discussed in the extant literature, but existing studies have not investigated the disaggregated impact of construction investments on the production and social sectors. This study examines the disaggregated effect of construction investments on the Saudi economy. The study uses a social accounting matrix of Saudi Arabia and constructs a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The findings reveal that construction investments significantly boosted GDP and aggregate investments in the first two periods; however, the growth declined in the following three periods. This finding underlines the importance of long-term investments in the construction sector and calls for continuous monitoring and updating of the investment policy for sustainable development. This study also presents the disaggregated impact of investments on the value-added by each sector of the economy. The ranking of sectors exhibits that mining and quarry activities underwent a high increase in value-added, second to construction activities. Other economic activities also experienced growth in value-added and some of them changed their ranks within the five years.
现有文献广泛讨论了建筑业在经济增长中的作用,但现有研究并未调查建筑投资对生产和社会部门的分类影响。本研究探讨了建筑投资对沙特经济的分类影响。研究使用了沙特阿拉伯的社会核算矩阵,并构建了一个动态可计算一般均衡模型。研究结果表明,在前两个时期,建筑投资极大地促进了国内生产总值和总投资的增长;然而,在随后的三个时期,增长速度有所下降。这一结论强调了建筑业长期投资的重要性,并呼吁持续监测和更新投资政策,以实现可持续发展。本研究还介绍了投资对各经济部门增加值的分类影响。各部门的排名显示,采矿和采石活动的附加值增幅较大,仅次于建筑活动。其他经济活动的增加值也有所增长,其中一些活动的排名在五年内发生了变化。
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引用次数: 0
Mobile money innovations, income inequality and gender inclusion in sub-Saharan Africa 撒哈拉以南非洲的移动支付创新、收入不平等和性别包容
IF 8.4 1区 经济学 Q1 BUSINESS, FINANCE Pub Date : 2024-01-06 DOI: 10.1186/s40854-023-00553-8
Simplice A. Asongu, Peter Agyemang-Mintah, Joseph Nnanna, Yolande E. Ngoungou
This study assesses the role of mobile money innovations on income inequality and gender inclusion in 42 sub-Saharan African countries from 1980 to 2019 using interactive quantile regressions. It finds that, first, income inequality unconditionally reduces the involvement of women in business and politics. Second, mobile money innovations interact with income inequality to have a positive impact on women in business and politics. Third, the net effects of mobile money innovations on gender inclusion through income inequality are consistently negative. Fourth, as the positive conditional or interactive effects and negative net effects are consistent across the conditional distribution of gender inclusion, thresholds at which mobile money innovations can completely dampen the negative effect of income inequality on gender inclusion are provided. Therefore, policymakers should work toward improving conditions for mobile money innovations. They should also be aware that reducing both income inequality and enhancing mobile money innovations simultaneously leads to more inclusive outcomes in terms of gender inclusion.
本研究采用交互式量化回归法,评估了1980年至2019年期间移动支付创新对42个撒哈拉以南非洲国家的收入不平等和性别包容所起的作用。研究发现,首先,收入不平等无条件地减少了妇女对商业和政治的参与。其次,移动支付创新与收入不平等相互作用,对妇女参与商业和政治产生积极影响。第三,移动支付创新通过收入不平等对性别包容的净影响始终是负的。第四,由于积极的条件效应或互动效应以及消极的净效应在性别包容的条件分布中是一致的,因此提供了移动货币创新能够完全抑制收入不平等对性别包容的消极影响的阈值。因此,决策者应努力改善移动支付创新的条件。他们还应该意识到,同时减少收入不平等和加强移动支付创新会在性别包容方面带来更具包容性的结果。
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引用次数: 0
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Financial Innovation
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