Pub Date : 2020-12-15DOI: 10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.148
Agata Sobków
{"title":"Recenzja książki Ellen Peters „Innumeracy In The Wild. Misunderstanding And Misusing Numbers”","authors":"Agata Sobków","doi":"10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.148","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.148","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37255,"journal":{"name":"Decyzje","volume":"2020 1","pages":"91-93"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43997331","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-15DOI: 10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.150
A. Domurat, Akademia Leona Koźmińskiego
{"title":"Gary Stanley Becker. Ekonomia jako sztuka najlepszego wykorzystywania życia","authors":"A. Domurat, Akademia Leona Koźmińskiego","doi":"10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.150","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.150","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37255,"journal":{"name":"Decyzje","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"71325628","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-12-15DOI: 10.7206/dec.1733-0092.145
Uğurcan Evci
This paper proposes a correction to the Flis-Słomczyński-Stolicki (2019, 2020) formula for countries with large variation among their districts in terms of political divisions. The Flis-Słomczyński-Stolicki formula (FSS formula) estimates seat allocations under the Jefferson-D’Hondt method by using national vote shares, as well as other parameters that are often readily available. However, the FSS formula does not yield precise estimates in those countries where there are independent candidates, special rights assigned to minority parties, signifi cant variation in district sizes, or an unequal distribution of votes due to ethnic or other regional divisions. Hence, I propose dividing the national distribution of votes into regions that satisfy the assumptions of the FSS formula within their district borders. By applying the FSS formula to regions consisting of historically and politically homogenous districts, I demonstrate that the formula’s estimates become signifi cantly more precise. For instance, by applying the regional correction to the 2018 Turkish Parliamentary elections, as well as other Turkish elections between 2007 and 2015, I show that the formula with the correction in three separate regions improves the Loosemore-Hanby goodness of fi t estimates from 2.1 to 3.41 percentage points (95% CI). Thus, the correction might signifi cantly improve the estimates of the FSS formula in various countries, including Spain, Peru, and Belgium.
{"title":"Show issue Year 12/2012 Volume 2020 Issue 34 Regional Correction of The Flis-Słomczyński-Stolicki Formula: The Case of Turkish Elections","authors":"Uğurcan Evci","doi":"10.7206/dec.1733-0092.145","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7206/dec.1733-0092.145","url":null,"abstract":"This paper proposes a correction to the Flis-Słomczyński-Stolicki (2019, 2020) formula for countries with large variation among their districts in terms of political divisions. The Flis-Słomczyński-Stolicki formula (FSS formula) estimates seat allocations under the Jefferson-D’Hondt method by using national vote shares, as well as other parameters that are often readily available. However, the FSS formula does not yield precise estimates in those countries where there are independent candidates, special rights assigned to minority parties, signifi cant variation in district sizes, or an unequal distribution of votes due to ethnic or other regional divisions. Hence, I propose dividing the national distribution of votes into regions that satisfy the assumptions of the FSS formula within their district borders. By applying the FSS formula to regions consisting of historically and politically homogenous districts, I demonstrate that the formula’s estimates become signifi cantly more precise. For instance, by applying the regional correction to the 2018 Turkish Parliamentary elections, as well as other Turkish elections between 2007 and 2015, I show that the formula with the correction in three separate regions improves the Loosemore-Hanby goodness of fi t estimates from 2.1 to 3.41 percentage points (95% CI). Thus, the correction might signifi cantly improve the estimates of the FSS formula in various countries, including Spain, Peru, and Belgium.","PeriodicalId":37255,"journal":{"name":"Decyzje","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45323966","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-08-01DOI: 10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.139
Agata Sobków, Jakub Figol, Jakub Traczyk
The goal of the present paper is to review recent theoretical models and empirical studies on the role of numeracy (i.e., cognitive ability in processing numerical information) in decision making under risk and uncertainty. The research conducted in the last decade points that numeracy is the most robust predictor of making good decisions, which predictions are independent of other psychological constructs or cognitive abilities (such as fluid intelligence or cognitive reflection). The pivotal role of numeracy has been described in at least three theoretical models: Fuzzy-Trace Theory, Skilled Decision Theory, and Multiple Numeric Competencies model. Furthermore, the results of numerous research indicate that better decisions made by people with high numeracy are underpinned by various psychological mechanisms of the cognitive, motivational, and affective nature. Findings related to the performance of people with high and low numeracy served to develop both immediate (e.g., visual aids or an experience-based format of risk communication) and long-term (e.g., cognitive training) methods of improving the decision-making process. Based on these decision aids, we can effectively support people with low numeracy in an accurate risk assessment, risk comprehension, and making better decisions
{"title":"Zdolności numeryczne jako kluczowe zdolności poznawcze w procesie podejmowania decyzji","authors":"Agata Sobków, Jakub Figol, Jakub Traczyk","doi":"10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.139","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.139","url":null,"abstract":"The goal of the present paper is to review recent theoretical models and empirical studies on the role of numeracy (i.e., cognitive ability in processing numerical information) in decision making under risk and uncertainty. The research conducted in the last decade points that numeracy is the most robust predictor of making good decisions, which predictions are independent of other psychological constructs or cognitive abilities (such as fluid intelligence or cognitive reflection). The pivotal role of numeracy has been described in at least three theoretical models: Fuzzy-Trace Theory, Skilled Decision Theory, and Multiple Numeric Competencies model. Furthermore, the results of numerous research indicate that better decisions made by people with high numeracy are underpinned by various psychological mechanisms of the cognitive, motivational, and affective nature. Findings related to the performance of people with high and low numeracy served to develop both immediate (e.g., visual aids or an experience-based format of risk communication) and long-term (e.g., cognitive training) methods of improving the decision-making process. Based on these decision aids, we can effectively support people with low numeracy in an accurate risk assessment, risk comprehension, and making better decisions","PeriodicalId":37255,"journal":{"name":"Decyzje","volume":"1 1","pages":"25-54"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-08-01","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43325046","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-15DOI: 10.7206//DEC.1733-0092.140
Anna Macko
This study examined the impact of gender on the propensity to trust, responses to the violation of trust and apologies, and the pace of subsequent trust restoration. It was hypothesized that women would respond more positively to an apology but restore their trust at a slower pace than men. Results revealed no gender differences in level of trust immediately after an apology for trust violation, but there was a significant difference in the pace of trust restoration, with women returning to their pre-violation levels of trust later than men as hypothesized. There were also significant gender differences in levels of trust before trust violation and after an apology.
{"title":"Gender Differences In Trust, Reactions To Trust Violation, And Trust Restoration","authors":"Anna Macko","doi":"10.7206//DEC.1733-0092.140","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7206//DEC.1733-0092.140","url":null,"abstract":"This study examined the impact of gender on the propensity to trust, responses to the violation of trust and apologies, and the pace of subsequent trust restoration. It was hypothesized that women would respond more positively to an apology but restore their trust at a slower pace than men. Results revealed no gender differences in level of trust immediately after an apology for trust violation, but there was a significant difference in the pace of trust restoration, with women returning to their pre-violation levels of trust later than men as hypothesized. There were also significant gender differences in levels of trust before trust violation and after an apology.","PeriodicalId":37255,"journal":{"name":"Decyzje","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42117001","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-15DOI: 10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.143
Grzegorz Lissowski
{"title":"Evangel according to St. Matthew 25","authors":"Grzegorz Lissowski","doi":"10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.143","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.143","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37255,"journal":{"name":"Decyzje","volume":"2020 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42666433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-15DOI: 10.7206//DEC.1733-0092.138
M. Brzozowicz
I examined the robustness of the anchoring effect with respect to the method of valuation, type of anchor and the availability of information about the presented product. In four different laboratory experiments, I elicited consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for cosmetic product manipulating anchoring conditions (low vs. high anchor or no anchor vs. high anchor). I observed that only the market anchor (the real price of a similar product) had an impact on WTP. I also found that the strength of the anchoring effect is lower in incentivised valuation tasks compared to hypothetical anchoring questions (I observed a significant anchoring effect only in experiment with declarative valuations). My findings suggest that the robustness of the anchoring effect is limited.
{"title":"The robustness of the anchoring effect in valuation tasks","authors":"M. Brzozowicz","doi":"10.7206//DEC.1733-0092.138","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7206//DEC.1733-0092.138","url":null,"abstract":"I examined the robustness of the anchoring effect with respect to the method of valuation, type of anchor and the availability of information about the presented product. In four different laboratory experiments, I elicited consumer willingness to pay (WTP) for cosmetic product manipulating anchoring conditions (low vs. high anchor or no anchor vs. high anchor). I observed that only the market anchor (the real price of a similar product) had an impact on WTP. I also found that the strength of the anchoring effect is lower in incentivised valuation tasks compared to hypothetical anchoring questions (I observed a significant anchoring effect only in experiment with declarative valuations). My findings suggest that the robustness of the anchoring effect is limited.","PeriodicalId":37255,"journal":{"name":"Decyzje","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47732162","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2020-06-15DOI: 10.7206//DEC.1733-0092.141
Łukasz Markiewicz, Marcin Czupryna, E. Kubińska
Technical analysis (TA) is a tool believed to support investor’s investment decisions. Even if research has demonstrated that TA cannot be used to make systematic profits over a long time period, it could potentially bring psychological payoffs to its users in the form of enhancing their confidence. In an experimental study we show that: (1) chartists demonstrate overconfidence in TA usage, believing that they are better than they actually are in TA formation recognition, and that; (2) the act of naming an observed trend as a TA formation brings extra confidence to the chartist, regardless of whether this is a real TA sequence or a random sequence. Thus, both naming an existing TA formation as a TA formation and naming a random sequence as a TA formation result in greater confidence. Also, irrespective of the high popularity of TA among investors, there are marked individual differences in TA followers. In a questionnaire study, we demonstrate that declared positive attitudes toward TA correlate positively with high need for (cognitive) closure (as measured by the Need for Cognitive Closure Scale; NFCS), specifically, desire for predictability.
{"title":"The role of need for structure in technical analysis and how identifying information in price movements raises traders’ confidence","authors":"Łukasz Markiewicz, Marcin Czupryna, E. Kubińska","doi":"10.7206//DEC.1733-0092.141","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7206//DEC.1733-0092.141","url":null,"abstract":"Technical analysis (TA) is a tool believed to support investor’s investment decisions. Even if research has demonstrated that TA cannot be used to make systematic profits over a long time period, it could potentially bring psychological payoffs to its users in the form of enhancing their confidence. In an experimental study we show that: (1) chartists demonstrate overconfidence in TA usage, believing that they are better than they actually are in TA formation recognition, and that; (2) the act of naming an observed trend as a TA formation brings extra confidence to the chartist, regardless of whether this is a real TA sequence or a random sequence. Thus, both naming an existing TA formation as a TA formation and naming a random sequence as a TA formation result in greater confidence. Also, irrespective of the high popularity of TA among investors, there are marked individual differences in TA followers. In a questionnaire study, we demonstrate that declared positive attitudes toward TA correlate positively with high need for (cognitive) closure (as measured by the Need for Cognitive Closure Scale; NFCS), specifically, desire for predictability.","PeriodicalId":37255,"journal":{"name":"Decyzje","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2020-06-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48245852","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2019-12-15DOI: 10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.129
J. Flis, Wojciech Słomczyński, Dariusz Stolicki
We propose a simple yet new formula for estimating national seat shares and quantifying seat biases in elections employing the Jefferson-D’Hondt (JDH) method for seat allocation. It is based solely on the national vote shares and fi xed parameters of the given electoral system. The proposed formula clarifi es the relationship between seat bias on the one hand, and the number of parties and the number of districts on the other. We demonstrate that the formula provides a good estimate of seat allocations in real-life elections even in the case of minor violations of the underlying assumptions. With that aim in mind, we have tested it for all nine EU countries that employ the JDH method in parliamentary elections. Moreover, we discuss the applications of the formula for modeling the effects of vote swings, coalition formation and breakup, spoiler effects, electoral engineering, artifi cial thresholds and political gerrymandering. By not requiring district-level vote shares, our formula simplifi es electoral simulations using the JDH method.
我们提出了一个简单而新的公式，用于估计国家席位份额和量化选举中的席位偏见，采用杰斐逊- d 'Hondt (JDH)方法进行席位分配。它完全基于国家投票份额和给定选举制度的固定参数。提出的公式一方面澄清了席位偏见与政党数量和地区数量之间的关系。我们证明，即使在轻微违反基本假设的情况下，该公式也能很好地估计实际选举中的席位分配情况。考虑到这一目标，我们已经在所有九个在议会选举中采用JDH方法的欧盟国家中进行了测试。此外，我们还讨论了该公式的应用，以模拟投票波动、联盟形成和分裂、破坏者效应、选举工程、人为阈值和政治上的不公正划分的影响。由于不需要地区级的投票份额，我们的公式使用JDH方法简化了选举模拟。
{"title":"Kociołek i chochelka: formuła szacowania rozkładu mandatów metodą Jeffersona-D’Hondta","authors":"J. Flis, Wojciech Słomczyński, Dariusz Stolicki","doi":"10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.129","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.7206/DEC.1733-0092.129","url":null,"abstract":"We propose a simple yet new formula for estimating national seat shares and quantifying seat biases in elections employing the Jefferson-D’Hondt (JDH) method for seat allocation. It is based solely on the national vote shares and fi xed parameters of the given electoral system. The proposed formula clarifi es the relationship between seat bias on the one hand, and the number of parties and the number of districts on the other. We demonstrate that the formula provides a good estimate of seat allocations in real-life elections even in the case of minor violations of the underlying assumptions. With that aim in mind, we have tested it for all nine EU countries that employ the JDH method in parliamentary elections. Moreover, we discuss the applications of the formula for modeling the effects of vote swings, coalition formation and breakup, spoiler effects, electoral engineering, artifi cial thresholds and political gerrymandering. By not requiring district-level vote shares, our formula simplifi es electoral simulations using the JDH method.","PeriodicalId":37255,"journal":{"name":"Decyzje","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2019-12-15","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46421731","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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