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Ambient air pollution and the risk of violence in primary and secondary school settings: a cross-sectional study. 环境空气污染与中小学环境中的暴力风险:一项横断面研究。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-06-13 DOI: 10.1186/s40621-024-00512-6
Austin T Rau, Alyson B Harding, Andy Ryan, Marizen R Ramirez, Lynette M Renner, Jesse D Berman

Background: Individual and social characteristics are attributed to violent behavior in schools, yet environmental hazards may play an understudied role. Ambient air pollution has been linked to neurological dysfunction that inhibits decision-making and may result in violent behavior in adult populations. However, little is known on how air pollution may be associated with violent behaviors in children.

Methods: A cross-sectional ecologic study was designed to estimate the associations between air pollution (fine particulate matter, carbon monoxide, and nitrogen dioxide) with the occurrence of violent incidents and incidents involving a weapon among a cohort of children in Minnesota schools (2008-2012). Differences by urban and rural status of schools were also explored. Negative binomial regression models were developed to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRR) and incidence rate differences (IRD) to describe associations between air pollution and violent incidents in school settings.

Results: Our results indicate that the highest levels of carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide and fine particulate matter concentrations were associated with increased violent disciplinary incidents. Among the total student population, the 4th quartile of carbon monoxide exposure was associated with an IRD of 775.62 (95% CI 543.2, 1008.05) violent incidents per 100,000 students per school year compared to schools in the lowest quartile of exposure. Comparing the 4th to the 1st quartiles of exposure, nitrogen dioxide and fine particulate matter had an IRD of 629.16 (95% CI 384.87, 873.46), and 510.49 (95% CI 274.92, 746.05) violent incidents per 100,000 students per school year respectively. Schools in urban settings shared a larger burden of violent incidents associated with air pollution compared to rural schools.

Conclusions: Modifying environmental pollutants surrounding school environments, particularly for high exposure communities, may be a novel tool for reducing violence and subsequent injuries in schools.

背景:个人和社会特征是导致校园暴力行为的原因,但环境危害可能扮演着未被充分研究的角色。环境空气污染与神经功能失调有关,神经功能失调会抑制决策,并可能导致成年人的暴力行为。然而,人们对空气污染如何与儿童暴力行为相关却知之甚少:我们设计了一项横断面生态学研究,以估算空气污染(细颗粒物、一氧化碳和二氧化氮)与明尼苏达州学校儿童群体中发生的暴力事件和涉及武器的事件之间的关联(2008-2012 年)。此外,还探讨了城市和农村学校的差异。我们建立了负二叉回归模型来估计发病率比(IRR)和发病率差异(IRD),以描述空气污染与学校环境中暴力事件之间的关联:结果:我们的研究结果表明,一氧化碳、二氧化氮和细颗粒物浓度的最高水平与暴力违纪事件的增加有关。在学生总人数中,一氧化碳四分位数与处于最低四分位数的学校相比,每 100,000 名学生每学年发生的暴力事件的 IRD 为 775.62(95% CI 543.2,1008.05)。二氧化氮和细颗粒物的IRD分别为每10万名学生每学年629.16 (95% CI 384.87, 873.46)和510.49 (95% CI 274.92, 746.05)起和每10万名学生每学年775.62 (95% CI 543.2, 1008.05)起。与农村学校相比,城市学校与空气污染相关的暴力事件发生率更高:结论:改变学校周围的环境污染物,尤其是高暴露社区的环境污染物,可能是减少校园暴力和后续伤害的新工具。
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引用次数: 0
Demographic shifts reshaping the landscape of hand trauma: a comprehensive single-center analysis of changing trends in hand injuries from 2007 to 2022. 人口结构变化重塑手部创伤格局:2007 年至 2022 年手部创伤变化趋势的单中心综合分析。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-06-13 DOI: 10.1186/s40621-024-00510-8
Martynas Tamulevicius, Florian Bucher, Nadjib Dastagir, Vincent Maerz, Peter M Vogt, Khaled Dastagir

Introduction: Hand injuries constitute up to 30% of the total cases treated in emergency departments. Over time, demographic changes, especially an aging population, and shifts in workplace safety regulations and healthcare policies have significantly impacted the landscape of hand trauma. This study aims to identify and analyze these evolving trends over nearly two decades.

Methods: In this retrospective, cross-sectional study, we investigated patients who were admitted to the high-volume regional hand trauma center of a university hospital between January 2007 and December 2022. We analyzed trends in patients' demographics and annual alterations of injuries. For the comparative analysis, patients were divided into two groups based on the time of presentation: the early cohort (2007-2014) and the current cohort (2015-2022).

Results: A total of 14,414 patients were admitted to our emergency department within the study period. A significant annual increase in patient age was identified (R2 = 0.254, p = 0.047). The number of presentations increased annually by an average of 2% (p < 0.001). The incidence of the following hand injuries significantly increased: sprains/strains (+ 70.51%, p = 0.004), superficial lacerations (+ 53.99%, p < 0.001), joint dislocations (+ 51.28%, p < 0.001), fractures (carpal: + 49.25%, p = 0.003; noncarpal: + 39.18%, p < 0.001), deep lacerations (+ 37.16%, p < 0.001) and burns and corrosions (+ 29.45%, p < 0.001). However, rates of amputations decreased significantly (- 22.09%, p = 0.04).

Conclusions: A consistent and significant annual increase in both the total number of injuries and the average age of patients was identified. An aging population may increase injury rates and comorbidities, stressing healthcare resources. Our study underscores the need to adapt healthcare structures and reimbursement policies, especially for outpatient hand injury care.

简介手部创伤占急诊科治疗病例总数的 30%。随着时间的推移,人口结构的变化(尤其是人口老龄化)以及工作场所安全法规和医疗保健政策的变化对手部创伤的发展产生了重大影响。本研究旨在确定和分析近二十年来这些不断变化的趋势:在这项回顾性横断面研究中,我们调查了 2007 年 1 月至 2022 年 12 月期间入住某大学附属医院高容量区域手外伤中心的患者。我们分析了患者的人口统计学趋势和伤害的年度变化。为了进行比较分析,我们根据患者的发病时间将其分为两组:早期组群(2007-2014 年)和当前组群(2015-2022 年):研究期间,急诊科共收治了 14414 名患者。发现患者年龄每年都有明显增长(R2 = 0.254,p = 0.047)。就诊人数平均每年增加 2%(p 结论:就诊人数平均每年增加 2%(p 结论:就诊人数平均每年增加 2%(p 结论):受伤总人数和患者平均年龄每年都有持续、显著的增长。人口老龄化可能会增加受伤率和合并症,给医疗资源带来压力。我们的研究强调了调整医疗结构和报销政策的必要性,尤其是在门诊手部损伤护理方面。
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引用次数: 0
Injury and illness surveillance monitoring in team sports: a framework for all. 团队运动中的伤病监测:全民框架。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-06-10 DOI: 10.1186/s40621-024-00504-6
Bradley Sprouse, Avinash Chandran, Neel Rao, Adrian J Boltz, Molly Johnson, Philip Hennis, Ian Varley

Background: Sport-related injuries and illnesses can negatively impact athlete welfare at all standards of participation in team sports. Injury and illness surveillance (IIS), and the development of monitoring systems, initiates the sequence of injury and illness prevention. Operational IIS monitoring systems help to appraise epidemiological estimates of injury and illness incidence and burden in various athlete populations. However, the methodological underpinnings of various monitoring systems are not harmonized or widely documented, with the presence of efficient and successful programmes rarely showcased at non-elite levels. The aim is to provide a framework that guides the development of IIS, which will enhance overall surveillance, to indirectly inform injury prevention strategies.

Methods: The process involved all members of the research group initially discussing the research gaps, scope of the project, and the aims of the article. Unique experiences were shared, and specific and global challenges and barriers to IIS at all standards of team sport participation were identified. A tiered system of data collection with corresponding content were produced, with experiences and guidance provided throughout the article.

Results: The literature has been reviewed and using first-hand experience in conducting IIS programmes in complex and diverse sport settings, the authors have identified key enablers and barriers for best practise as time, technological and human resources, reporter/practitioner training, and medical expertise. Areas of greatest importance regarding the conducting of IIS have been outlined, providing guidance and recommendations across all levels of team sport participation. These areas include definitions, data context, collection procedures, handling, security, ethics, storage, dissemination, quality, compliance, and analysis. Given the barriers to IIS, 3-tiered levels of data collection and content have been proposed. The levels indicate data collection variables, with a focus on sufficiency and achievability, aiming to support the successful conducting of IIS in team sports across all standards of participation. Future opportunities in IIS have been discussed, with several predictive measures and analytical techniques expanded upon.

Conclusions: The framework provides universal guidance for implementing IIS monitoring systems, facilitating athletes, coaches, parents/guardians, governing bodies and practitioners to implement IIS processes, identify challenges, complete analysis, and interpret outcomes at all standards of participation.

背景:与运动有关的伤病会对参加各种水平的团队运动的运动员的福利产生负面影响。伤病监测(IIS)和监测系统的开发启动了伤病预防的序列。实用的 IIS 监测系统有助于对各种运动员群体的伤病发生率和负担进行流行病学评估。然而,各种监测系统的方法论基础并不统一,也没有广泛的文献记载,非高级别的高效和成功计划很少得到展示。本研究的目的是提供一个框架,指导制定综合监测系统,从而加强整体监测,间接为伤害预防战略提供信息:研究过程中,研究小组的所有成员首先讨论了研究差距、项目范围和文章目的。大家分享了独特的经验,并确定了在参与各种标准的团队运动中,IIS 所面临的具体的和全球性的挑战和障碍。数据收集的分层系统和相应的内容也随之产生,经验和指导贯穿文章始终:作者查阅了相关文献,并利用在复杂多样的体育环境中开展 IIS 计划的第一手经验,确定了最佳做法的主要推动因素和障碍,包括时间、技术和人力资源、报告人/从业人员培训以及医学专业知识。作者概述了开展 IIS 最重要的领域,为各级团队运动参与提供指导和建议。这些领域包括定义、数据背景、收集程序、处理、安全、道德、存储、传播、质量、合规性和分析。鉴于 IIS 所面临的障碍,提出了数据收集和内容的 3 个层次。这些级别表明了数据收集的变量,重点是充分性和可实现性,旨在支持在所有参与标准的团队运动中成功开展 IIS。还讨论了 IIS 的未来机遇,并扩展了若干预测措施和分析技术:该框架为实施 IIS 监测系统提供了通用指导,便于运动员、教练员、家长/监护人、管理机构和从业人员在所有参赛标准中实施 IIS 流程、确定挑战、完成分析并解释结果。
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引用次数: 0
Diabetes mellitus and hard braking events in older adult drivers. 糖尿病与老年驾驶员的急刹车事件。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-06-05 DOI: 10.1186/s40621-024-00508-2
Difei Liu, Stanford Chihuri, Howard F Andrews, Marian E Betz, Carolyn DiGuiseppi, David W Eby, Linda L Hill, Vanya Jones, Thelma J Mielenz, Lisa J Molnar, David Strogatz, Barbara H Lang, Guohua Li

Background: Diabetes mellitus (DM) can impair driving safety due to hypoglycemia, hyperglycemia, diabetic peripheral neuropathy, and diabetic eye diseases. However, few studies have examined the association between DM and driving safety in older adults based on naturalistic driving data.

Methods: Data for this study came from a multisite naturalistic driving study of drivers aged 65-79 years at baseline. Driving data for the study participants were recorded by in-vehicle recording devices for up to 44 months. We used multivariable negative binomial modeling to estimate adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of hard braking events (HBEs, defined as maneuvers with deceleration rates ≥ 0.4 g) associated with DM.

Results: Of the 2856 study participants eligible for this analysis, 482 (16.9%) reported having DM at baseline, including 354 (12.4%) insulin non-users and 128 (4.5%) insulin users. The incidence rates of HBEs per 1000 miles were 1.13 for drivers without DM, 1.15 for drivers with DM not using insulin, and 1.77 for drivers with DM using insulin. Compared to drivers without DM, the risk of HBEs was 48% higher for drivers with DM using insulin (aIRR 1.48; 95% CI: 1.43, 1.53).

Conclusion: Older adult drivers with DM using insulin appear to be at increased proneness to vehicular crashes. Driving safety should be taken into consideration in DM care and management.

背景:糖尿病(DM)会因低血糖、高血糖、糖尿病周围神经病变和糖尿病眼病而损害驾驶安全。然而,很少有研究基于自然驾驶数据对糖尿病与老年人驾驶安全之间的关系进行研究:本研究的数据来自一项多站点自然驾驶研究,研究对象为基线年龄在 65-79 岁之间的驾驶者。车载记录仪记录了研究参与者长达 44 个月的驾驶数据。我们使用多变量负二项模型估算了与DM相关的硬制动事件(HBE,定义为减速率≥0.4 g的操作)的调整后发病率比(aIRR)和95%置信区间(CI):在符合分析条件的 2856 名研究参与者中,有 482 人(16.9%)在基线时报告患有糖尿病,其中包括 354 人(12.4%)未使用胰岛素,128 人(4.5%)使用胰岛素。无DM的驾驶员每1000英里的HBE发生率为1.13,有DM但未使用胰岛素的驾驶员为1.15,有DM但使用胰岛素的驾驶员为1.77。与未患有 DM 的司机相比,患有 DM 并使用胰岛素的司机发生 HBE 的风险高出 48%(aIRR 1.48;95% CI:1.43,1.53):结论:患有糖尿病并使用胰岛素的老年驾驶员发生车祸的风险似乎更高。结论:患有糖尿病并使用胰岛素的老年驾驶者似乎更容易发生车祸,在糖尿病护理和管理中应考虑到驾驶安全。
{"title":"Diabetes mellitus and hard braking events in older adult drivers.","authors":"Difei Liu, Stanford Chihuri, Howard F Andrews, Marian E Betz, Carolyn DiGuiseppi, David W Eby, Linda L Hill, Vanya Jones, Thelma J Mielenz, Lisa J Molnar, David Strogatz, Barbara H Lang, Guohua Li","doi":"10.1186/s40621-024-00508-2","DOIUrl":"10.1186/s40621-024-00508-2","url":null,"abstract":"<p><strong>Background: </strong>Diabetes mellitus (DM) can impair driving safety due to hypoglycemia, hyperglycemia, diabetic peripheral neuropathy, and diabetic eye diseases. However, few studies have examined the association between DM and driving safety in older adults based on naturalistic driving data.</p><p><strong>Methods: </strong>Data for this study came from a multisite naturalistic driving study of drivers aged 65-79 years at baseline. Driving data for the study participants were recorded by in-vehicle recording devices for up to 44 months. We used multivariable negative binomial modeling to estimate adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of hard braking events (HBEs, defined as maneuvers with deceleration rates ≥ 0.4 g) associated with DM.</p><p><strong>Results: </strong>Of the 2856 study participants eligible for this analysis, 482 (16.9%) reported having DM at baseline, including 354 (12.4%) insulin non-users and 128 (4.5%) insulin users. The incidence rates of HBEs per 1000 miles were 1.13 for drivers without DM, 1.15 for drivers with DM not using insulin, and 1.77 for drivers with DM using insulin. Compared to drivers without DM, the risk of HBEs was 48% higher for drivers with DM using insulin (aIRR 1.48; 95% CI: 1.43, 1.53).</p><p><strong>Conclusion: </strong>Older adult drivers with DM using insulin appear to be at increased proneness to vehicular crashes. Driving safety should be taken into consideration in DM care and management.</p>","PeriodicalId":37379,"journal":{"name":"Injury Epidemiology","volume":"11 1","pages":"22"},"PeriodicalIF":2.2,"publicationDate":"2024-06-05","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC11151638/pdf/","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"141262930","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"医学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"OA","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Principles of musculoskeletal sport injuries for epidemiologists: a review. 流行病学家的肌肉骨骼运动损伤原理:综述。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-05-27 DOI: 10.1186/s40621-024-00507-3
Chinchin Wang, Steven D Stovitz, Jay S Kaufman, Russell J Steele, Ian Shrier

Background: Musculoskeletal injuries are a common occurrence in sport. The goal of sport injury epidemiology is to study these injuries at a population level to inform their prevention and treatment.

Main body: This review provides an overview of musculoskeletal sport injuries and the musculoskeletal system from a biological and epidemiologic perspective, including injury mechanism, categorizations and types of sport injuries, healing, and subsequent injuries. It is meant to provide a concise introductory substantive background of musculoskeletal sport injuries for epidemiologists who may not have formal training in the underlying anatomy and pathophysiology.

Conclusion: An understanding of sport injuries is important for researchers in sport injury epidemiology when determining how to best define and assess their research questions and measures.

背景:肌肉骨骼损伤是体育运动中常见的损伤。运动损伤流行病学的目标是在人群水平上研究这些损伤,为其预防和治疗提供依据:这篇综述从生物学和流行病学的角度概述了肌肉骨骼运动损伤和肌肉骨骼系统,包括损伤机理、运动损伤的分类和类型、愈合和后续损伤。该书旨在为可能没有接受过基础解剖学和病理生理学正式培训的流行病学家提供有关肌肉骨骼运动损伤的简明介绍性实质性背景知识:了解运动损伤对于运动损伤流行病学研究人员确定如何最好地定义和评估其研究问题和措施非常重要。
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引用次数: 0
An updated analysis of safety climate and downstream outcomes in two convenience samples of U.S. fire departments (FOCUS 1.0 and 2.0 survey waves). 对两个美国消防部门便利样本(FOCUS 1.0 和 2.0 调查波)的安全氛围和下游结果进行最新分析。
IF 2.4 3区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI: 10.1186/s40621-024-00502-8
Ashley M Geczik, Jin Lee, Joseph A Allen, Madison E Raposa, Lucy F Robinson, D Alex Quistberg, Andrea L Davis, Jennifer A Taylor

Background: The Fire service Organizational Culture of Safety (FOCUS) survey is an assessment tool comprised of psychometrically validated metrics of safety climate, safety behavior, and downstream outcomes (organizational and injury) that are specific to the U.S. fire and rescue service.

Methods: This analysis consists of a descriptive summary of two independent survey waves (FOCUS 1.0 and 2.0). The fire departments included in these survey waves were from convenience sampling (n1.0 = 275; n2.0 = 170). In addition to department level characteristics, we examined individual level characteristics for firefighters and EMS providers in participating departments (n1.0 = 22,719; n2.0 = 16,882). We conducted regression analyses to examine the associations between safety climate and safety behaviors, organizational outcomes, and safety outcomes. All analyses were stratified by organization type (career, volunteer).

Results: Our analysis indicated that a majority of respondents were males (90.7%FOCUS 1.0; 90.4%FOCUS 2.0), non-officers (68.4%FOCUS 1.0; 66.4%FOCUS 2.0), and non-Hispanic Whites (70.8%FOCUS 1.0; 69.5%FOCUS 2.0). For both samples there was a higher prevalence of injuries among individuals in career departments (nFOCUS 1.0 = 3778 [17.5%]; nFOCUS 2.0 = 3072 [18.7%]) than volunteer departments (nFOCUS 1.0 = 103 [8.8%]; nFOCUS 2.0 = 34 [7.4%]). We observed an approximate 10-point difference between the mean scores of Management Commitment to Safety for career and volunteer departments in both samples. We observed associations for two organizational outcomes, Safety Behavior and Job Satisfaction, with Management Commitment to Safety and Supervisor Support for Safety overall and when stratified by organization type. We observed a decrease in the odds of injuries associated with a one-unit increase in Management Commitment to Safety (OR1.0 overall: 0.98, 95% CI 0.97-0.99; OR2.0 volunteer: 0.90, 95% CI 0.85-0.95) and Supervisor Support for Safety (OR1.0 overall: 0.95, 95% CI 0.93-0.97; OR1.0 career: 0.95, 95% CI 0.92-0.98).

Conclusions: From our current study, and a prior analysis of a geographically stratified random sample of U.S. fire departments, we identified that from all the organizational outcomes, job satisfaction was most consistently associated with FOCUS safety climate. Further, firefighters in our samples consistently rated Supervisor Support for Safety higher than Management Commitment to Safety. Future interventions should support fire departments in improving their departmental Management Commitment to Safety and maintaining their Supervisor for Safety.

背景:消防组织安全文化(FOCUS)调查是一种评估工具,由经过心理测量学验证的安全氛围、安全行为和下游结果(组织和伤害)指标组成,专门针对美国消防和救援服务:本分析包括对两波独立调查(FOCUS 1.0 和 2.0)的描述性总结。这两次调查所涉及的消防部门均为方便抽样(n1.0 = 275;n2.0 = 170)。除了部门层面的特征外,我们还研究了参与部门的消防员和急救服务提供者的个人层面特征(n1.0 = 22,719; n2.0 = 16,882)。我们进行了回归分析,以研究安全氛围与安全行为、组织成果和安全成果之间的关联。所有分析均按组织类型(职业组织、志愿者组织)进行分层:我们的分析表明,大多数受访者为男性(90.7%FOCUS 1.0;90.4%FOCUS 2.0)、非官员(68.4%FOCUS 1.0;66.4%FOCUS 2.0)和非西班牙裔白人(70.8%FOCUS 1.0;69.5%FOCUS 2.0)。在这两个样本中,职业部门(nFOCUS 1.0 = 3778 [17.5%];nFOCUS 2.0 = 3072 [18.7%])的人员受伤率高于志愿部门(nFOCUS 1.0 = 103 [8.8%];nFOCUS 2.0 = 34 [7.4%])。我们观察到,在这两个样本中,职业部门和志愿部门的 "安全管理承诺 "平均得分相差约 10 分。我们观察到安全行为和工作满意度这两项组织结果与 "管理层对安全的承诺 "和 "主管对安全的支持 "的总体关系,以及在按组织类型分层时的关系。我们观察到,安全管理承诺每增加一个单位,受伤几率就会降低(总体 OR1.0:0.98,95% CI 0.97-0.99;志愿者 OR2.0:0.90,95% CI 0.99):0.90,95% CI 0.85-0.95)和主管对安全的支持(OR1.0 整体:0.95,95% CI 0.93-0.97;OR1.0 职业:0.95,95% CI 0.92-0.98):通过本次研究以及之前对美国消防部门的地理分层随机样本进行的分析,我们发现在所有组织结果中,工作满意度与 FOCUS 安全氛围的关系最为一致。此外,在我们的样本中,消防员对主管安全支持的评价始终高于对管理层安全承诺的评价。未来的干预措施应支持消防部门改善其部门的安全管理承诺,并维护其安全主管。
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引用次数: 0
Single-year change in views of democracy and society and support for political violence in the USA: findings from a 2023 nationally representative survey. 美国人对民主和社会的看法以及对政治暴力的支持的单年变化:2023 年全国代表性调查的结果。
IF 2.4 3区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-05-21 DOI: 10.1186/s40621-024-00503-7
Garen J Wintemute, Sonia L Robinson, Andrew Crawford, Elizabeth A Tomsich, Paul M Reeping, Aaron B Shev, Bradley Velasquez, Daniel Tancredi

Background: A 2022 survey in the USA found concerningly high prevalences of support for and personal willingness to engage in political violence, of beliefs associated with such violence, and of belief that civil war was likely in the near future. It is important to determine the durability of those findings.

Methods: Wave 2 of a nationally representative cohort survey was conducted May 18-June 8, 2023; the sample comprised all respondents to 2022's Wave 1. Outcomes are expressed as weighted proportions; changes from 2022 to 2023 are for respondents who participated in both surveys, based on aggregated individual change scores.

Results: The completion rate was 84.2%; there were 9385 respondents. After weighting, 50.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 49.4%, 52.1%) were female; weighted mean (SD) age was 48.5 (25.9) years. About 1 in 20 respondents (5.7%, 95% CI 5.1%, 6.4%) agreed strongly/very strongly that "in the next few years, there will be civil war in the United States," a 7.7% decrease. In 2023, fewer respondents considered violence to be usually/always justified to advance at least 1 of 17 specific political objectives [25.3% (95% CI 24.7%, 26.5%), a 6.8% decrease]. However, more respondents thought it very/extremely likely that within the next few years, in a situation where they consider political violence justified, "I will be armed with a gun" [9.0% (95% CI 8.3%, 9.8%), a 2.2% increase] and "I will shoot someone with a gun" [1.8% (95% CI 1.4%, 2.2%), a 0.6% increase]. Among respondents who considered violence usually/always justified to advance at least 1 political objective, about 1 in 20 also thought it very/extremely likely that they would threaten someone with a gun (5.4%, 95% CI 4.0%, 7.0%) or shoot someone (5.7%, 95% CI 4.3%, 7.1%) to advance such an objective.

Conclusions: In this cohort, support for political violence declined from 2022 to 2023, but predictions of firearm use in political violence increased. These findings can help guide prevention efforts, which are urgently needed.

背景:2022 年在美国进行的一项调查发现,支持参与政治暴力、个人愿意参与政治暴力、与政治暴力相关的信念以及认为不久的将来可能发生内战的比例都很高,这令人担忧。确定这些发现的持久性非常重要:2023 年 5 月 18 日至 6 月 8 日进行了具有全国代表性的队列调查第 2 波;样本包括 2022 年第 1 波的所有受访者。结果以加权比例表示;从 2022 年到 2023 年的变化是针对参加两次调查的受访者,基于个人变化的综合得分:调查完成率为 84.2%,共有 9385 名受访者。加权后,50.7%(95% 置信区间 49.4%,52.1%)为女性;加权平均(标清)年龄为 48.5(25.9)岁。每 20 位受访者中约有 1 位(5.7%,95% 置信区间为 5.1%,6.4%)强烈/非常强烈地认为 "未来几年美国将发生内战",降幅为 7.7%。在 2023 年,更少的受訪者認為通常/總是有理由使用暴力來達成 17 項特定政治目標中的至少一項[25.3% (95% CI 24.7%, 26.5%),下降了 6.8%]。不过,更多的受访者认为,在未来几年内,在他们认为政治暴力是合理的情况下,"我会持枪"[9.0% (95% CI 8.3%, 9.8%),增加 2.2%]和 "我会用枪打人"[1.8% (95% CI 1.4%, 2.2%),增加 0.6%]的可能性非常大/极大。在认为通常/总是有理由使用暴力来实现至少一个政治目标的受访者中,每 20 人中就有 1 人认为他们非常/极有可能用枪威胁他人(5.4%,95% CI 4.0%,7.0%)或向他人开枪(5.7%,95% CI 4.3%,7.1%)来实现这一目标:在这个队列中,对政治暴力的支持从 2022 年到 2023 年有所下降,但对在政治暴力中使用枪支的预测却有所上升。这些发现有助于指导迫切需要的预防工作。
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引用次数: 0
A joinpoint analysis examining trends in firearm injuries at six us trauma centers from 2016 to 2022. 一项联点分析研究了 2016 年至 2022 年美国六家创伤中心的枪支伤害趋势。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-05-13 DOI: 10.1186/s40621-024-00505-5
Kristin Salottolo, R Joseph Sliter, Gary Marshall, Carlos H Palacio Lascano, Glenda Quan, David Hamilton, Robert Madayag, Gina Berg, David Bar-Or

Background: There is an epidemic of firearm injuries in the United States since the mid-2000s. Thus, we sought to examine whether hospitalization from firearm injuries have increased over time, and to examine temporal changes in patient demographics, firearm injury intent, and injury severity.

Methods: This was a multicenter, retrospective, observational cohort study of patients hospitalized with a traumatic injury to six US level I trauma centers between 1/1/2016 and 6/30/2022. ICD-10-CM cause codes were used to identify and describe firearm injuries. Temporal trends were compared for demographics (age, sex, race, insured status), intent (assault, unintentional, self-harm, legal intervention, and undetermined), and severity (death, ICU admission, severe injury (injury severity score ≥ 16), receipt of blood transfusion, mechanical ventilation, and hospital and ICU LOS (days). Temporal trends were examined over 13 six-month intervals (H1, January-June; H2, July-December) using joinpoint regression and reported as semi-annual percent change (SPC); significance was p < 0.05.

Results: Firearm injuries accounted for 2.6% (1908 of 72,474) of trauma hospitalizations. The rate of firearm injuries initially declined from 2016-H1 to 2018-H2 (SPC = - 4.0%, p = 0.002), followed by increased rates from 2018-H2 to 2020-H1 (SPC = 9.0%, p = 0.005), before stabilizing from 2020-H1 to 2022-H1 (0.5%, p = 0.73). NH black patients had the greatest hospitalization rate from firearm injuries (14.0%) and were the only group to demonstrate a temporal increase (SPC = 6.3%, p < 0.001). The proportion of uninsured patients increased (SPC = 2.3%, p = 0.02) but there were no temporal changes by age or sex. ICU admission rates declined (SPC = - 2.2%, p < 0.001), but ICU LOS increased (SPC = 2.8%, p = 0.04). There were no significant changes over time in rates of death (SPC = 0.3%), severe injury (SPC = 1.6%), blood transfusion (SPC = 0.6%), and mechanical ventilation (SPC = 0.6%). When examined by intent, self-harm injuries declined over time (SPC = - 4.1%, p < 0.001), assaults declined through 2019-H2 (SPC = - 5.6%, p = 0.01) before increasing through 2022-H1 (SPC = 6.5%, p = 0.01), while undetermined injuries increased through 2019-H1 (SPC = 24.1%, p = 0.01) then stabilized (SPC = - 4.5%, p = 0.39); there were no temporal changes in unintentional injuries or legal intervention.

Conclusions: Hospitalizations from firearm injuries are increasing following a period of declines, driven by increases among NH Black patients. Trauma systems need to consider these changing trends to best address the needs of the injured population.

背景:自 2000 年代中期以来,枪支伤害在美国呈流行趋势。因此,我们试图研究枪支伤害住院人数是否随着时间的推移而增加,并研究患者人口统计学、枪支伤害意图和伤害严重程度的时间变化:这是一项多中心、回顾性、观察性队列研究,研究对象是 2016 年 1 月 1 日至 2022 年 6 月 30 日期间在美国六家一级创伤中心住院治疗的外伤患者。研究使用ICD-10-CM病因代码来识别和描述枪伤。比较了人口统计学(年龄、性别、种族、投保情况)、意图(攻击、无意、自残、法律干预和未确定)和严重程度(死亡、入住重症监护室、重伤(损伤严重程度评分≥16)、接受输血、机械通气以及住院和重症监护室寿命(天数)的时间趋势。采用连接点回归法对 13 个六个月间隔期(H1,1 月至 6 月;H2,7 月至 12 月)内的时间趋势进行了研究,并以半年变化百分比 (SPC) 的形式进行报告;显著性以 p 表示:火器伤害占创伤住院人数的 2.6%(72,474 例中的 1908 例)。从2016-H1到2018-H2,火器致伤率最初有所下降(SPC = - 4.0%,p = 0.002),随后从2018-H2到2020-H1,火器致伤率有所上升(SPC = 9.0%,p = 0.005),然后从2020-H1到2022-H1趋于稳定(0.5%,p = 0.73)。新罕布什尔州黑人患者因枪支伤害住院的比例最高(14.0%),也是唯一呈现出时间性增长的群体(SPC = 6.3%,p 结论:新罕布什尔州黑人患者因枪支伤害住院的比例从 2020-H1 到 2022-H1(0.5%,p = 0.73):枪支伤害住院率在经历了一段时间的下降后正在上升,这主要是由北卡罗来纳州黑人患者住院率的上升所引起的。创伤系统需要考虑这些变化趋势,以最好地满足受伤人群的需求。
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引用次数: 0
Ghost guns and crime: a tale of two California cities. 幽灵枪与犯罪:加州两座城市的故事。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-05-02 DOI: 10.1186/s40621-024-00500-w
Alaina De Biasi, Anthony A Braga, Brad Velasquez, Garen Wintemute

Background: Privately made firearms (PMFs) or "ghost guns" are homemade, unserialized, untraceable firearms that have been increasingly used in violent crime in the United States. Very little is known about the types of PMFs recovered by law enforcement agencies and the crimes associated with these recoveries. This lack of information limits effective violence prevention policies and practices. Comparative analysis of PMF recoveries in specific cities helps clarify whether local PMF patterns and characteristics vary or reflect more general trends. This research advances epidemiological understanding of emergent violent gun injury prevention challenges by identifying variations in recovered PMF types and use in violent, drug, and weapon-related offenses in Los Angeles and San Diego, California.

Methods: Conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC) identifies patterns among observations (i.e., case configurations) and calculates their probability associated with a given outcome. CACC was used to identify the most common types of PMFs recovered by the Los Angeles (LAPD) and San Diego (SDPD) police departments. For each department and offense type, case configurations with above-average probabilities of offense involvement were determined. Comparisons across departments were made to identify similarities and differences in PMF characteristics and usage.

Results: PMFs were more likely to be involved in violent and weapon-related offenses in Los Angles but more likely to be involved in drug-related offenses in San Diego. In both cities, the 9 mm Polymer 80 handgun was the dominant PMF. However, 9 mm handguns were most likely to be involved in weapon-related offenses in Los Angeles compared to 0.40 handguns in San Diego. Furthermore, large-caliber handguns tended to display above-average probabilities of involvement in violent and drug offenses in Los Angeles. Long guns were represented in case configurations with above-average probabilities of involvement in substantive crimes, including violence.

Conclusions: Comparative analyses of PMF recovery patterns in Los Angeles and San Diego reveal meaningful contextual variations in PMF characteristics and suggest intentional firearm type selections by offenders. The results support increased regulation of PMFs and highlight the importance of efforts to identify and disrupt the illicit supply of large-caliber PMF handguns and PMF long guns.

背景:私制枪支(PMFs)或 "幽灵枪 "是自制的、没有序列号的、无法追踪的枪支,在美国越来越多地被用于暴力犯罪。人们对执法机构收缴的私制枪支类型以及与这些收缴枪支相关的犯罪知之甚少。这种信息的缺乏限制了有效的暴力预防政策和实践。对特定城市回收的 PMF 进行比较分析,有助于澄清当地 PMF 的模式和特征是否有所不同,或者是否反映了更普遍的趋势。这项研究通过确定加利福尼亚州洛杉矶和圣地亚哥回收的 PMF 类型以及在暴力、毒品和武器相关犯罪中的使用情况的变化,推进了对新出现的暴力枪支伤害预防挑战的流行病学理解:案件配置关联分析(CACC)可识别观察结果(即案件配置)之间的模式,并计算其与特定结果相关的概率。CACC 被用来识别洛杉矶(LAPD)和圣地亚哥(SDPD)警察局回收的最常见类型的 PMF。针对每个部门和犯罪类型,确定了犯罪参与概率高于平均值的案件配置。对各部门进行比较,以确定 PMF 特征和使用情况的异同:在洛杉矶,PMF 更有可能参与暴力和武器相关犯罪,但在圣地亚哥,PMF 更有可能参与毒品相关犯罪。在这两个城市,9 毫米聚合物 80 型手枪是主要的 PMF。然而,在洛杉矶,9 毫米手枪最有可能涉及与武器有关的犯罪,而在圣地亚哥,9 毫米手枪的涉案率为 0.40。此外,在洛杉矶,大口径手枪参与暴力和毒品犯罪的概率往往高于平均水平。在案件配置中,长枪参与暴力等实质性犯罪的概率高于平均水平:对洛杉矶和圣迭戈的 PMF 回收模式进行比较分析,揭示了 PMF 特征的有意义的环境变化,并表明罪犯有意选择枪支类型。研究结果支持加强对PMF的监管,并强调了查明和打击大口径PMF手枪和PMF长枪非法供应的重要性。
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引用次数: 0
Trends in police complaints and arrests on New York City subways, 2018 to 2023: an interrupted time-series analysis. 2018 年至 2023 年纽约市地铁上的警察投诉和逮捕趋势:间断时间序列分析。
IF 2.2 3区 医学 Q2 PUBLIC, ENVIRONMENTAL & OCCUPATIONAL HEALTH Pub Date : 2024-04-26 DOI: 10.1186/s40621-024-00501-9
Leah E Roberts, Christina A Mehranbod, Brady Bushover, Ariana N Gobaud, Evan L Eschliman, Carolyn Fish, Siddhesh Zadey, Xiang Gao, Christopher N Morrison

Background: Public transportation use is influenced by perceptions of safety. Concerns related to crime on New York City (NYC) transit have risen following NYC's COVID-19 pandemic state of emergency declaration in 2020, leading to declines in subway ridership. In response, the most recent mayoral administration implemented a Subway Safety Plan in 2022. This study aimed to quantify the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the Subway Safety Plan on rates of complaints to and arrests by the New York City Police Department (NYPD) Transit Bureau.

Methods: Using publicly available data on complaints and arrests, we conducted interrupted time-series analyses using autoregressive integrated moving average models applied to monthly data for the period from September 2018 to August 2023. We estimated changes in the rates of complaints to and arrests by the NYPD Transit Bureau before and after: (1) the COVID-19 pandemic state of emergency declaration (i.e., March 2020), and (2) the announcement of the Subway Safety Plan (i.e., February 2022). We also examined trends by complaint and arrest type as well as changes in proportion of arrests by demographic and geographic groups.

Results: After the COVID-19 pandemic declaration, there was an 84% increase (i.e., an absolute increase of 6.07 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 1.42, 10.71) in complaints to the NYPD Transit Bureau, including a 99% increase (0.91 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.42, 1.41) in complaints for assault and a 125% increase in complaints for harassment (0.94 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.29, 1.60). Following the Subway Safety Plan there was an increase in the rate of arrests for harassment (0.004 per 1,000,000 riders, CI 0.001, 0.007), as well as decreases in the proportion of arrests for individuals racialized as White (- 0.02, CI - 0.04, - 0.01) and proportion of arrests in the borough of Manhattan (- 0.13, CI - 0.17, - 0.09).

Conclusions: The increased rates of complaints to the NYPD Transit Bureau following the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic remained elevated following the enactment of the Subway Safety Plan. Further evaluation efforts can help identify effective means of promoting safety on public transportation.

背景:公共交通的使用受到安全感的影响。在 2020 年纽约市宣布 COVID-19 大流行病进入紧急状态后,人们对纽约市(NYC)公交车上犯罪问题的担忧不断升温,导致地铁乘客数量下降。为此,最近一届市长政府于 2022 年实施了地铁安全计划。本研究旨在量化 COVID-19 大流行病和地铁安全计划对纽约市警察局(NYPD)公交局的投诉率和逮捕率的影响:利用公开的投诉和逮捕数据,我们使用自回归综合移动平均模型对 2018 年 9 月至 2023 年 8 月期间的月度数据进行了间断时间序列分析。我们估算了在以下时间前后纽约市警察局公交局的投诉率和逮捕率的变化:(1) COVID-19 大流行病紧急状态宣布(即 2020 年 3 月),以及 (2) 地铁安全计划宣布(即 2022 年 2 月)。我们还研究了投诉和逮捕类型的趋势,以及不同人口和地域群体逮捕比例的变化:在 COVID-19 大流行宣布后,向纽约市警察局公交局提出的投诉增加了 84%(即每 100 万名乘客绝对增加 6.07 起,CI 值为 1.42 - 10.71),其中攻击投诉增加了 99%(每 100 万名乘客 0.91 起,CI 值为 0.42 - 1.41),骚扰投诉增加了 125%(每 100 万名乘客 0.94 起,CI 值为 0.29 - 1.60)。地铁安全计划实施后,因骚扰而被捕的比例有所上升(每 100 万乘客 0.004,CI 0.001,0.007),因白人而被捕的比例有所下降(- 0.02,CI - 0.04,- 0.01),在曼哈顿区被捕的比例有所下降(- 0.13,CI - 0.17,- 0.09):地铁安全计划》颁布后,COVID-19 大流行病发生后向纽约市警察局交通局投诉的比率仍在上升。进一步的评估工作有助于确定促进公共交通安全的有效方法。
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Injury Epidemiology
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