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Novel technologies and Geopolitical Strategies: Disinformation Narratives in the Countries of the Visegrád Group 新技术和地缘政治战略:Visegrád集团国家的虚假信息叙事
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/pce-2021-0008
Lilla Sarolta Bánkuty-Balogh
Abstract In the current media environment of growing information disorder and social media platforms emerging as primary news sources, the creation and spread of disinformation is becoming increasingly easy and cost-effective. The projection of strategic narratives through disinformation campaigns is an important geopolitical tool in the global competition for power and status. We have analysed close to 1,000 individual news pieces from more than 60 different online sources containing disinformation, which originally appeared in one of the V4 languages, using a natural language processing algorithm. We have assessed the frequency of recurring themes within the articles and their relationship structure, to see whether consistent disinformation narratives were to be found among them. Through frequency analysis and relationship charting, we have been able to uncover individual storylines connected to more than ten overarching disinformation narratives. We have also exposed five key meta-narratives present in all Visegrád Countries, which fed into a coherent system of beliefs, such as the envisioned collapse of the European Union or the establishment of a system of Neo-Atlantism, which would permanently divide the continent.
在当前信息日益无序、社交媒体平台成为主要新闻来源的媒体环境下,虚假信息的制造和传播变得越来越容易,成本效益也越来越高。通过虚假信息运动投射战略叙事是全球权力和地位竞争中的重要地缘政治工具。我们使用自然语言处理算法,分析了来自60多个不同在线来源的近1000条包含虚假信息的新闻,这些新闻最初以V4语言之一出现。我们已经评估了文章中反复出现的主题的频率及其关系结构,看看是否在这些文章中发现了一致的虚假信息叙述。通过频率分析和关系图表,我们已经能够发现与十多种总体虚假信息叙事相关的个别故事情节。我们还揭示了在所有Visegrád国家中存在的五个关键元叙事,它们形成了一个连贯的信仰体系,例如设想中的欧盟崩溃或新大西洋主义体系的建立,这将永久地分裂欧洲大陆。
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引用次数: 5
The Disintegration of Czech Parliamentary Parties: The Network Analysis of Co-Voting Strategies of the Parliamentary Party ‘Renegades’ 捷克议会党的解体:议会党“叛徒”共同投票策略的网络分析
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/pce-2021-0011
Dušan Brabec
Abstract The main objective of this study is to capture and analyse the dynamics of the co-voting ties among the members of the parliamentary political party groups in two specific Czech cases, where some members of these parliamentary groups left their former party and joined new political entities. The study is of a quantitative nature, but the main findings are connected to qualitative insights as well. Network approach and methods were used for the analysis. The emphasis was put on the detection of possible rivalling communities in the constructed network of co-voting between deputies belonging to the analysed parliamentary party groups in respective periods. The co-voting was treated as a proxy indicator of possible relationship indicating either co-operation or rivalry between the deputies belonging to the political party suffering from an internal crisis. The primary outcome of the study was the identification of the co-voting strategies and dynamics of the co-voting between deputies who stayed in their former party, and renegades who switched.
摘要本研究的主要目的是捕捉和分析在两个具体的捷克案例中议会政党团体成员之间的共同投票关系的动态,其中这些议会团体的一些成员离开了他们以前的政党并加入了新的政治实体。这项研究是定量的,但主要的发现也与定性的见解有关。采用网络分析方法进行分析。重点是在各自时期所分析的议会政党集团的代表之间共同投票的构建网络中发现可能的竞争社区。共同投票被视为可能关系的代理指标,表明属于遭受内部危机的政党的代表之间是合作还是竞争。该研究的主要结果是确定了留在原政党的代表和叛变的代表之间的共同投票策略和共同投票的动态。
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引用次数: 0
Relations Between Turkey and Hungary in the Democratic Party Period (1950–1960) 民主党派时期的土匈关系(1950—1960)
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/pce-2021-0015
Bilal Tunç, Orsolya Falus
Abstract The decennium historical process in Turkish political history between 1950 and 1960 is called the Democratic Party (DP) era. During this period, important issues took place in Turkish foreign policy. Our aim is to reveal the political, commercial and social relations between Turkey and Hungary in the light of archive documents within the scope of important events in Turkish foreign policy. The aim of this article is to emphasise how the Hungarian Revolution of 1956 affected the relations between the two countries and to prove with documents that Turkey supported Hungary during the revolution. This study has been created by benefiting from archive documents, national newspapers and copyrights from both target countries. The study also commemorates the 1956 Hungarian Revolution, which erupted 65 years ago this year. Finally, this article entitled Relations between Turkey and Hungary during the Democratic Party Period (1950–1960) is a qualitative study prepared using the document analysis technique.
摘要1950年至1960年土耳其政治史上的十年历史进程被称为民主党时代。在此期间,土耳其外交政策出现了重要问题。我们的目的是根据土耳其外交政策中重要事件的档案文件,揭示土耳其和匈牙利之间的政治、商业和社会关系。本文的目的是强调1956年匈牙利革命如何影响两国关系,并用文件证明土耳其在革命期间支持匈牙利。这项研究是通过受益于两个目标国家的档案文件、全国性报纸和版权而创建的。这项研究也是为了纪念1956年的匈牙利革命,这场革命于65年前的今年爆发。最后,这篇题为《土耳其和匈牙利在民主党时期(1950–1960)的关系》的文章是一篇使用文献分析技术进行的定性研究。
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引用次数: 0
Experts and Questions: Exploring Perceptions of Corruption 专家与问题:探讨对腐败的看法
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/pce-2021-0014
Aneta Pinková, Jakub Jusko
Abstract This article is a contribution to the ‘know your data’ approach to the issue of measuring corruption, in two specific areas: the impact of the way questions are formulated on the results of surveys on corruption perception; and the potential pitfalls of using businesspeople as expert respondents in surveys measuring corruption. The article first presents and analyses the sources of two most frequently used indicators to measure corruption perceptions – the Corruption Perception Index and the Control of Corruption, one of the Worldwide Governance Indicators. Based on this analysis, hypotheses are posed on how the formulation of the questions will influence the out-comes of surveys, and what differences there will be between studies conducted on the general public and businesspeople. These are tested using data obtained from two original survey experiments conducted concurrently, one on a representative sample of the public and another on businesspeople.
摘要本文在两个具体领域对衡量腐败问题的“了解你的数据”方法做出了贡献:问题的表述方式对腐败认知调查结果的影响;以及在衡量腐败的调查中使用商人作为专家受访者的潜在陷阱。本文首先介绍并分析了衡量腐败认知的两个最常用指标的来源——腐败认知指数和全球治理指标之一的腐败控制。基于这一分析,我们提出了一些假设,即问题的表述将如何影响调查结果,以及对公众和商界人士进行的研究之间会有什么差异。这些都是使用从同时进行的两个原始调查实验中获得的数据进行测试的,一个是对公众的代表性样本,另一个是商人。
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引用次数: 1
Bush’s ‘Beyond Containment’ strategy toward the Eastern Bloc in 1989 within the US Foreign Policy context 美国外交政策背景下布什1989年对东方集团的“超越遏制”战略
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/pce-2021-0016
D. Mareček
Abstract This paper explores the foreign policy of US President George H. W. Bush and his administration towards the Soviet Union and the other countries of the Warsaw Pact. The article also focuses on two historically significant American foreign policy strategies that were implemented during the earlier years of the Cold War: containment and détente. The rapidly changing international environment and Bush’s Beyond Containment policy which, aimed to respond to these changes, became the basis for the following research questions: 1) How did American conception of foreign policy approach to Eastern Bloc countries such as Hungary or Poland change under the Bush administration in 1989 in comparison to the period of implementation of the containment or détente? 2) How did the American perception of the retreating Soviet power within the bipolar international structure affect American diplomatic relations with the Eastern European governments? The aim of the paper is to put Bush’s foreign policy in his first year in office in the American ‘Cold War’ foreign policy context and to compare the classical American political strategies with Bush’s foreign policy in 1989.
摘要本文探讨了美国总统乔治·h·w·布什和布莱尔对苏联和华约其他国家的外交政策。本文还着重讨论了美国在冷战初期实施的两项具有历史意义的外交政策战略:遏制和缓和。快速变化的国际环境和布什的“超越遏制”政策,旨在应对这些变化,成为以下研究问题的基础:1)1989年布什政府下美国对东欧集团国家(如匈牙利或波兰)的外交政策方法的概念与实施遏制或dasttente时期相比有何变化?2)在两极国际格局中,美国对苏联势力退却的看法如何影响美国与东欧各国政府的外交关系?本文的目的是将布什执政第一年的外交政策置于美国“冷战”外交政策的背景下,并将经典的美国政治战略与1989年布什的外交政策进行比较。
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引用次数: 0
Riders on the storm: the role of populism in the global crisis of democracy and in the functioning of electoral autocracies 风暴中的骑手:民粹主义在全球民主危机和选举独裁运作中的作用
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/pce-2021-0009
I. Benedek
Abstract It is my contention that populism could be an appropriate framework to describe, explain and connect the phenomena of global crisis of democracy and functioning of electoral autocracies. In order to substantiate this claim, with the method of literature review, I examine first the characteristics of these phenomena. Then I focus on the nature of the relationship between them, in particular on the complex system of new types of autocracies’ stability, in which populism could play a crucial role. Populism, understood as an autocratic (re-)interpretation of democracy and representation, could be a particularly dangerous Trojan Horse for democracy. First and foremost, because its idea of a single, homogeneous and authentic people that can be legitimately represented only by the populist leader is a moralised form of antipluralism which is contrary to the pluralist approach of democracy (i.e. polyarchy). For precisely this reason, populism could play a key role in autocracies, especial in electoral autocracies which may use its core elements. Namely, the Manichean worldview, the image of a homogeneous people, people-centrism and the autocratic notion of representation are very compatible with electoral autocracies, since these regimes hold general elections and their power is built largely upon the alleged will of the people. By using populism, it is possible for these regimes to camouflage and even legitimise their autocratic trends and exercise of power behind the formally multi-party but not fair elections and democratic façade. As a radical turn towards closed autocracies (without de facto multiparty elections) would be too expensive, electoral autocrats need manipulated multi-party elections and other plebiscite techniques that could serve as quasi-democratic legitimation. Because of this, they tend to use the political logic of populism which could transform political contestation to a life- and- death struggle and provides quasi-democratic legitimation and other important cognitive functions. Therefore, populist electoral autocracies, as a paradigmatic type of electoral autocracies, could remain with us for a long time, giving more and more tasks to researchers, especially in the Central and Eastern European region.
摘要我认为民粹主义可以成为描述、解释和联系全球民主危机现象和选举独裁运作的适当框架。为了证实这一说法,我首先用文献综述的方法考察了这些现象的特征。然后,我关注他们之间关系的性质,特别是新型专制国家稳定的复杂体系,民粹主义可能在其中发挥关键作用。民粹主义被理解为对民主和代表权的专制(重新)解释,可能是民主的一匹特别危险的特洛伊木马。首先也是最重要的一点,因为它认为只有民粹主义领导人才能合法代表单一、同质和真实的人民,这是一种道德化的反诱惑形式,与民主的多元方法(即多元政体)背道而驰。正是出于这个原因,民粹主义可以在专制政体中发挥关键作用,特别是在可能使用其核心元素的选举专制政体中。也就是说,摩尼教的世界观、同质人民的形象、人民中心主义和代表权的专制概念与选举独裁非常兼容,因为这些政权举行大选,他们的权力主要建立在所谓的人民意愿之上。通过使用民粹主义,这些政权有可能在正式的多党但不公平的选举和民主外表背后掩饰甚至合法化其独裁趋势和权力行使。由于彻底转向封闭独裁(没有事实上的多党选举)的代价太高,选举独裁者需要操纵多党选举和其他可以作为准民主合法化的公民投票技术。正因为如此,他们倾向于使用民粹主义的政治逻辑,这种逻辑可以将政治斗争转变为生死攸关的斗争,并提供准民主合法化和其他重要的认知功能。因此,民粹主义选举专制作为一种典型的选举专制,可以长期存在,给研究者,特别是中东欧地区的研究者带来越来越多的任务。
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引用次数: 1
Participation of the Czech Republic in NATO Peace Support Operations: Analysis of Necessary and Sufficient Conditions 捷克共和国参加北约和平支助行动:必要和充分条件的分析
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-06-01 DOI: 10.2478/pce-2021-0013
Lucie Konečná
Abstract NATO, as one of the most important security organisations, has been involved in a large number of operations of all kinds since its establishment. Peace Support Operations are the most common type, as they include conflict prevention, peacemaking, peacebuilding, peacekeeping, peace enforcement and humanitarian operations. Some states participate in these operations very often, others only rarely. This study aims to examine the participation of the Czech Republic, a small state that has a small but well-trained and specialised army. The research aims to determine the most common reasons for Czech participation in NATO’s Peace Support Operations. The work uses qualitative comparative analysis to determine the necessary reasons or sufficient conditions for the participation of this state. Five types of reasons – political reasons, security reasons, economic reasons, institutional reasons and normative reasons are tested. The analysis points to the fact that security reasons are the most important reasons.
摘要北约作为最重要的安全组织之一,自成立以来参与了大量的各种行动。和平支助行动是最常见的类型,因为它们包括预防冲突、建立和平、建设和平、维持和平、执行和平和人道主义行动。一些州经常参与这些行动,而另一些州则很少参与。这项研究旨在考察捷克共和国的参与情况。捷克共和国是一个小国,拥有一支规模较小但训练有素、专业化的军队。这项研究旨在确定捷克参与北约和平支持行动的最常见原因。该工作使用定性的比较分析来确定这种状态参与的必要原因或充分条件。测试了五类原因——政治原因、安全原因、经济原因、制度原因和规范原因。分析指出,安全原因是最重要的原因。
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引用次数: 0
Russian Influence in the Czech Republic as a Grey Zone Case Study 俄罗斯对捷克共和国的影响——以灰色地带为例
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.2478/pce-2021-0002
Josep Baqués-Quesada, Guillem Colom-Piella
Abstract In recent years, the concept of grey zone has been popularised to analyse the activities a State can use to influence the decisions and to limit the strategic choices of another State below the threshold of war. This article presents a case study, aimed at verifying if the Russian activities in the Czech Republic may constitute a grey zone. The paper commences by introducing the concept of the grey zone and developing the appropriate theoretical framework to identify its main characteristics. It continues by examining the Russian influence in the Czech Republic by using open sources, local sources and documents from the Czech intelligence services. It concludes by asserting that the analysed case meets most of the requirements to classify it as a ‘limited grey zone’. This new theoretical development may help to assess similar situations that may occur in this or other nations.
近年来,灰色地带的概念得到普及,用于分析一个国家可以用来影响决策并将另一个国家的战略选择限制在战争门槛以下的活动。本文提出了一个案例研究,旨在验证俄罗斯在捷克共和国的活动是否可能构成灰色地带。本文首先介绍了灰色地带的概念,并建立了相应的理论框架来识别灰色地带的主要特征。它继续利用公开来源、当地来源和捷克情报部门的文件,审查俄罗斯在捷克共和国的影响。它的结论是,所分析的案例符合将其归类为“有限灰色地带”的大部分要求。这一新的理论发展可能有助于评估在这个或其他国家可能发生的类似情况。
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引用次数: 7
Municipalities without elected councils. Causes of insufficient fulfilment of candidate lists in some municipalities in local elections in 2018 没有民选议会的市镇。2018年地方选举中一些市镇候选人名单执行不力的原因
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.2478/pce-2021-0003
P. Dvořák, Stanislav Balík
Abstract By means of a qualitative analysis of the sixteen municipalities in the Czech Republic in which additional elections were held in 2019, five variables were identified which may explain why additional elections occurred. For analysis, we used data from the Czech Statistical Office (municipal elections 1994 to 2019), the Ministry of Interior of the Czech Republic and information on individual municipalities from media analysis. We have identified the following possible variables which may affect whether additional elections are held: end of elites, non -stand as a candidate again, the end of municipal representatives, incumbent decides not to defend mandate (variable Non -defend mandate) and personal disputes within the municipality. Conversely, the financial situation of the municipality, the age of the representatives, the voter turnout in the municipality, the number of voters, the number of candidate lists or associations and candidates proved inconclusive in most municipalities. A significant increase in new candidates is a consequence rather than an explanation of the holding of additional elections.
摘要通过对2019年举行额外选举的捷克共和国16个市镇的定性分析,确定了五个变量,这些变量可以解释为什么会举行额外选举。为了进行分析,我们使用了捷克统计局(1994年至2019年市政选举)、捷克共和国内政部的数据,以及来自媒体分析的各个市政当局的信息。我们已经确定了以下可能影响是否举行额外选举的变量:精英阶层的终结、不再作为候选人参选、市政代表的终结、现任者决定不捍卫授权(变量不捍卫授权)以及市政内部的个人纠纷。相反,在大多数城市,市政当局的财政状况、代表的年龄、市政当局的选民投票率、选民人数、候选人名单或协会的数量以及候选人的数量都没有定论。新候选人的大幅增加是举行额外选举的结果,而不是解释。
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引用次数: 0
Sustainable development through morphogenetic analysis: The case of Slovenia 通过形态发生分析实现可持续发展:以斯洛文尼亚为例
Q2 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-03-01 DOI: 10.2478/pce-2021-0004
T. Golob, Matej Makarovič
Abstract This article addresses Slovenia as a case of a post -communist country in terms of its sustainable development. It deploys an in -depth historical analysis and extensive empirical data while exploring Slovenian society through the analytical lens of morpho-static/morphogenetic approach (Archer 2017). The focus is on (1) the country’s structural and cultural settings in each selected period in order to explore whether there has been a mutual reinforcement of the levels of both, contributing to the sustainable development; (2) ways in which agents respond to such changes reinforcing or changing the structural settings. The selection of quantitative structural indicators of sustainable development is based on the indicators of sustainable development that have a direct reference to the Sustainable Development Agenda of the United Nations 2030 and also adopted by the current Strategy of Development of Slovenia. The selection of survey data was based on their connection with the same sustainability issues and their availability for a longer period, particularly close to the time points of the cycles observed. The findings show that in terms of contributing to sustainable development, the presence of morphogenesis in the selected cycles turns out to be rather limited, and there is a severe lack of political reflexivity (cf. Al -Amoudi 2017) among actors.
本文将斯洛文尼亚作为一个后共产主义国家的可持续发展案例。它部署了深入的历史分析和广泛的经验数据,同时通过形态静态/形态发生方法的分析视角探索斯洛文尼亚社会(Archer 2017)。重点是(1)国家在每个选定时期的结构和文化环境,以探讨两者的水平是否相互加强,有助于可持续发展;(2) 代理人对这种变化的反应方式加强或改变了结构设置。可持续发展量化结构指标的选择是基于可持续发展指标,这些指标直接参考了《联合国2030年可持续发展议程》,也是斯洛文尼亚当前发展战略所通过的。调查数据的选择是基于它们与同样的可持续性问题的联系,以及它们在更长时间内的可用性,特别是在接近观察到的周期的时间点。研究结果表明,就促进可持续发展而言,在选定的周期中,形态发生的存在相当有限,行动者之间严重缺乏政治反思性(参见Al-Amoudi 2017)。
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引用次数: 0
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Politics in Central Europe
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