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Belt and Road Initiative for Ten Years: Impact and Prospect “一带一路”倡议十年:影响与展望
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101231167455
Biliang Hu
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of the Belt and Road Infrastructure Development on the Economic Growth of the Partner Countries “一带一路”基础设施建设对伙伴国经济增长的影响
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101231167454
Zhihua Chen
As of July 2022, China has signed more than 200 cooperation agreements on the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) with 149 countries and 32 international organizations. This research aims to explore the impact of the infrastructure development of this initiative on the economic growth of countries participating in the BRI. Based on the panel data of 130 participating countries and 46 other countries from 2006 to 2019, the difference-in-difference (DID) model and multiple robustness tests were used for empirical evaluation. We found a positive correlation between BRI and the economic growth of BRI-cooperating countries. The heterogeneity test results show that BRI has a more prominent role in promoting the economic growth of upper-middle-income and high-income countries with relatively good industrial foundations. The impact of improved infrastructure development through BRI accounted for 88.42% of the total mediating effect, which is much more significant than promoting industrial upgrading and enhancing innovation capacity. These results support the view that BRI should continue to advance infrastructure development to boost the economic growth of developing countries.
截至2022年7月,中国已与149个国家和32个国际组织签署了200多项“一带一路”合作协议。本研究旨在探讨“一带一路”倡议的基础设施发展对参与国经济增长的影响。基于2006 - 2019年130个参与国和46个其他国家的面板数据,采用差分差分(DID)模型和多重稳健性检验进行实证评价。我们发现,“一带一路”倡议与合作国家经济增长呈正相关。异质性检验结果显示,在工业基础相对较好的中高收入和高收入国家,“一带一路”对经济增长的促进作用更为突出。“一带一路”促进基础设施建设的中介效应占总中介效应的88.42%,远高于促进产业升级和提升创新能力。这些结果支持了“一带一路”应继续推进基础设施建设,促进发展中国家经济增长的观点。
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引用次数: 0
The Belt and Road Initiative: Inclusive Globalization and Poverty Reduction “一带一路”倡议倡议:包容性全球化与减贫
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101231167448
Pompeo Della Posta
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) aims to increase connectivity between regions and countries that market forces excluded from the previous wave of economic globalization. Foreign direct investment (FDI) can create the conditions for the economic takeoff of least-developed countries (LDCs) and developing countries. Although Chinese FDI has nearly doubled since the launch of the BRI in 2013 compared to 2005–2013, it does not seem to be directed toward BRI member countries more than the non-member countries. One exception is South American BRI member countries, which have significantly increased their FDI inflows from China. This is not the case, however, for West Asian countries, where FDI growth has been lower for BRI countries than for the West Asian countries as a whole, and especially for sub-Saharan BRI countries, for which the amount of FDI has even decreased compared to the 2005–2013 period. The BRI’s slow start and the countries’ gradual entry may explain the delay in seeing the positive results expected from it reflected in the data.
“一带一路”倡议旨在加强被市场力量排除在前一波经济全球化之外的地区和国家之间的互联互通。外国直接投资可以为最不发达国家和发展中国家的经济起飞创造条件。尽管与2005-2013年相比,自2013年启动“一带一路”倡议以来,中国的外国直接投资几乎翻了一番,但似乎并没有比非成员国更多地流向“一带一步”倡议成员国。一个例外是南美“一带一路”倡议成员国,它们大幅增加了来自中国的外国直接投资流入。然而,对于西亚国家来说,情况并非如此,“一带一路”倡议国家的外国直接投资增长率低于整个西亚国家,尤其是撒哈拉以南“一带一道”倡议国家,与2005-2013年相比,这些国家的外国直接投资额甚至有所下降。“一带一路”倡议起步缓慢,各国逐渐加入,这可能解释了数据中未能反映出预期的积极成果。
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引用次数: 0
Chinese Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Innovation in Host Countries: Evidence from Countries Along the Belt and Road 中国对外直接投资与东道国创新——来自一带一路沿线国家的证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101231167356
Yanyan Sun, Shan Fan
Foreign direct investment (FDI) can benefit innovation activity in host countries through spillover channels, such as reverse engineering, demonstration effects, and supplier–customer relationships. Using data from 26 countries along the Belt and Road route (BRCs) and 32 non-BRCs, we identified positive causal effects of the Chinese outward FDI on the innovation capacities in technology-intensive industries of both BRCs and non-BRCs. However, this effect varies depending on the host countries’ economic development levels. The impact of Chinese OFDI on the general innovation performance in host countries is absent. Meanwhile, the implementation of the BRI has on the whole, a negative impact on BRCs’ innovation performance.
外国直接投资可以通过溢出渠道,如逆向工程、示范效应和供应商-客户关系,使东道国的创新活动受益。利用一带一路沿线26个国家和32个非“一带一路”沿线国家的数据,我们确定了中国对外直接投资对“一带一路上”沿线国家和非“一带”沿线国家技术密集型产业创新能力的积极因果影响。然而,这种影响因东道国的经济发展水平而异。中国对外直接投资对东道国总体创新绩效的影响是不存在的。同时,“一带一路”倡议的实施总体上对BRC的创新绩效产生了负面影响。
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引用次数: 1
Inflation and Its Uncertainty: Evidence from Indonesia and the Philippines 通货膨胀及其不确定性:来自印度尼西亚和菲律宾的证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-04-18 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221149873
H. Kuncoro
This article investigates the relationship between inflation and its uncertainty under the inflation-targeting regime in Indonesia and the Philippines over 2005(7)–2021(12). The Kernel density function and entropy index applications reveal that the price level in both countries is heterogeneous. The non-linear quantile regression estimation shows that inflation affects inflation uncertainty positively. Inflation more likely induces its uncertainty in higher quantiles. The effect exhibits an inconsistent linearity property. While the symmetric behavior holds in the Philippines, inflation in the case of Indonesia affects the inflation uncertainty differently, not only inter-quantiles but also intra-quantiles. Given that Indonesia and the Philippines have low inflation rates relative to other emerging markets, our findings suggest that announcing higher inflation targets may be costly to provoke higher inflation uncertainty. Accordingly, controlling inflation uncertainty in the inflation-targeting regime can be achieved if monetary policy is credible and independent.
本文研究了2005年(7)-2021年(12)印度尼西亚和菲律宾通胀目标制下通胀与其不确定性之间的关系。核密度函数和熵指数的应用表明,两国的物价水平存在异质性。非线性分位数回归估计表明,通货膨胀正影响通货膨胀不确定性。通货膨胀更有可能在更高的分位数上引发不确定性。该效应表现出不一致的线性特性。虽然这种对称行为在菲律宾成立,但印度尼西亚的通货膨胀对通货膨胀不确定性的影响不同,不仅在分位数之间,而且在分位数内。鉴于印尼和菲律宾相对于其他新兴市场的通胀率较低,我们的研究结果表明,宣布更高的通胀目标可能会引发更高的通胀不确定性。因此,如果货币政策是可信和独立的,那么控制通胀目标制下的通胀不确定性是可以实现的。
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引用次数: 0
Indian Experience of Managing Impossible Trinity, Growth and Possible Tradeoff Between FDI and FIIs: Nature of Capital Inflows Matter 印度管理外国直接投资和外国直接投资之间不可能的三位一体、增长和可能的权衡的经验:资本流入的本质
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-12-06 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221129897
S. Padhi
The current focus emphasizes the difficult choices faced by Indian management of the impossible trinity to manage import-led growth. The management highlights two mechanisms by which FDI (foreign direct investment) flows are easily substituted for short-run FII (foreign institutional investment) flows. First, GDP and its growth in an open economy framework and the associated international trade participation can clarify this substitution prospect. Specifically, this study develops reasoning whereby imports under the trilemma management can give some decisive advantage to FII at the cost of FDI to manage Indian import-led growth. Second, it underlines how the related policies, especially the sterilization interventions, constrain the interactions of higher domestic investments (domestic savings), spillover impacts of imports of intermediate and capital goods, and specialized FDI. If so, the Indian economy’s import-led growth can indicate FII and FDI tradeoffs. The study uses the ARDL regression method. The results show that the Indian policy-led macro environment can limit the scope of specialized FDI that aims to induce advanced domestic investment, exports, and FDI interactions. India’s focus on import-led growth thereby underpins how FII substitutes FDI.
当前的重点强调了印度管理层面临的艰难选择,即不可能的三位一体来管理进口主导的增长。管理层强调了两种机制,即外国直接投资(FDI)流动很容易取代短期的外国机构投资(FII)流动。首先,国内生产总值及其在开放经济框架下的增长以及相关的国际贸易参与可以阐明这种替代前景。具体而言,本研究发展了一种推理,即在三难困境管理下的进口可以以外国直接投资为代价,为FII提供一些决定性的优势,以管理印度进口主导的增长。其次,它强调了相关政策,特别是绝育干预措施,如何限制更高的国内投资(国内储蓄)、中间产品和资本产品进口的溢出影响以及专门的外国直接投资的相互作用。如果是这样的话,印度经济以进口为主导的增长可以表明外国直接投资和外国直接投资的权衡。本研究采用ARDL回归方法。结果表明,印度政策主导的宏观环境会限制旨在吸引先进的国内投资、出口和外国直接投资互动的专业化外国直接投资的范围。因此,印度对进口导向型增长的关注支撑了外国直接投资如何替代外国直接投资。
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引用次数: 0
Foreign Direct Investment and Financial Development in Selected MENA Region Countries: Panel ARDL Approach 选定中东和北非地区国家的外国直接投资和金融发展:小组ARDL方法
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-11-30 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221129387
Ahlam El Fakiri, Kenza Cherkaoui
This article empirically examines the linkage between foreign direct investment (FDI) and financial development (FD) in 16 selected countries of the MENA region (Algeria, Bahrain, Egypt, Iran, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Malta, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Tunisia, and the United Arab Emirates) over the period 2000–2018. The research investigates the long- and short-run effects of FD on FDI inflows using panel ARDL. This model is based on the dynamic fixed effect (DFE) estimator. The article employs three proxies of FD as developed by the IMF, namely, the overall financial development (OFD), financial markets’ development (FM), and financial institutions’ development proxy (FI). The purpose was to analyze the impact of FD by covering the depth, efficiency, and access to financial markets and their institutions. The findings suggest that even though no significant relationship is established in the short run, the long-run coefficients of the overall FD proxy and FM proxy are positive and statistically significant. The estimates suggest that a 1% increase in the overall FD proxy and FM proxy results in an increase of 172% and 150% of FDI inflows to MENA region countries, respectively.
本文实证研究了2000-2008年期间中东和北非地区16个选定国家(阿尔及利亚、巴林、埃及、伊朗、以色列、约旦、科威特、黎巴嫩、马耳他、毛里塔尼亚、摩洛哥、阿曼、卡塔尔、沙特阿拉伯、突尼斯和阿拉伯联合酋长国)的外国直接投资与金融发展之间的联系。本研究使用ARDL面板研究了FD对FDI流入的长期和短期影响。该模型基于动态固定效应(DFE)估计器。本文采用了国际货币基金组织制定的FD的三个指标,即整体金融发展(OFD)、金融市场发展(FM)和金融机构发展指标(FI)。其目的是通过涵盖金融市场及其机构的深度、效率和准入来分析FD的影响。研究结果表明,尽管短期内没有建立显著的关系,但总体FD代理和FM代理的长期系数是正的,具有统计学意义。估计表明,总体FD指标和FM指标增加1%,流入中东和北非地区国家的外国直接投资分别增加172%和150%。
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引用次数: 0
Impact of Free Trade Area on Trade, Revenue and Welfare in Nigeria 自由贸易区对尼日利亚贸易、收入和福利的影响
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-11-30 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221128683
N. Chukwu, A. Omeje, K. Ofoezie, M. O. Ugwu, Augustine Jideofor
This study offers an analytical evaluation of the effects of Free Trade Area (FTA) agreements on trade, revenue, and welfare in Nigeria. The study applied World-Integrated Trade Solution/Software for Market Analysis and Restrictions on Trade (WITS-SMART), anchored on a partial equilibrium model (PEM) for its simulations. The study simulated 100% tariff elimination on selected products under Harmonized System (HS)-2 classification code sourced from Trade Analysis Information Systems (TRAINS) and Common Format for Transient Data Exchange (COMTRADE). The study’s findings show that the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) agreement will benefit Nigeria’s economy from trade creation estimated at US$8,860.419 million, including a favorable welfare gain to the value of US$740.571 million. Nevertheless, Nigeria will sustain losses in trade revenue, valued at US$6,142.061 million. The study recommends proficient revenue management and well-diversified revenue collection sources, such as improvement in Value Added Tax and Ad-Valorem duty, to cushion the effects of the revenue loss resulting from tariff elimination in the FTA.
本研究对自由贸易区协议对尼日利亚贸易、收入和福利的影响进行了分析评估。该研究应用了世界综合贸易解决方案/市场分析和贸易限制软件(WITS-SMART),以部分均衡模型(PEM)为基础进行模拟。该研究模拟了根据贸易分析信息系统(TRAINS)和瞬态数据交换通用格式(COMTRADE)的协调制度(HS)-2分类代码对选定产品100%取消关税的情况。该研究结果显示,非洲大陆自由贸易区(AfCFTA)协议将使尼日利亚经济受益于估计为8860.419万美元的贸易创造,其中包括价值74057.1万美元的有利福利收益。尽管如此,尼日利亚的贸易收入仍将遭受损失,价值614206.1万美元。该研究建议熟练的收入管理和多样化的收入来源,如提高增值税和增值税,以缓解自由贸易协定中取消关税造成的收入损失的影响。
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引用次数: 1
The Effect of Financial Development on Unemployment in Emerging Market Countries 新兴市场国家金融发展对失业的影响
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-10-04 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221116715
I. Raifu, J. Afolabi
This study examined the effect of financial development on unemployment in 19 emerging market countries, considering their age groups and gender dichotomy. The data covers the period from 1991–2019. Pooled Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Dynamic OLS, and quantile regression via moments were employed as the estimation methods. Robustness was tested with Fully Modified OLS and Canonical Cointegration Regression (CCR) estimation methods. Our results show that financial development has a conditional mean reducing effect on unemployment and a reducing effect on the distribution of unemployment. However, the reducing effect of financial development on the distribution of unemployment varies across the working-age population and youths. Thus, there is a need to formulate and implement a long-term financial policy to ensure economic growth and guarantee employment for the working-age population and the youths irrespective of gender.
本研究考察了19个新兴市场国家的金融发展对失业的影响,考虑了他们的年龄和性别二分法。数据涵盖1991年至2019年。采用Pooled Ordinary Least Square (OLS)、Dynamic OLS和分位数矩回归作为估计方法。采用全修正OLS和典型协整回归(CCR)估计方法检验稳健性。研究结果表明,金融发展对失业有条件平均降低效应,对失业分布有条件平均降低效应。然而,金融发展对失业分布的减少效应在工作年龄人口和年轻人之间有所不同。因此,有必要制订和执行一项长期财政政策,以确保经济增长,并保证不分性别的工作年龄人口和青年的就业。
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引用次数: 5
The Empirical Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment Episodes 外国直接投资事件的经验决定因素
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-09-14 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221116720
Muhammad Imran, A. Rashid
This article classifies the extreme gross foreign direct investment (FDI) flow episodes into four types. It empirically investigates the determinants of each type by estimating complementary log-log (Clog–log) and probit regressions for 50 developing economies over the period 1990–2018. We document that domestic GDP growth rate, inflation, institutional quality, and human capital are the major empirical drivers of FDI flows. The world uncertainty index (WUI) is negatively associated with FDI inflows toward developing countries. Moreover, we find that the domestic GDP growth rate is positively associated with the probability of having FDI surge and FDI flight. In contrast, inflation is negatively linked with FDI surge episodes. These findings provide a better understanding of the empirical determinants of FDI flows to and from developing countries. The findings also help to understand the behavior of FDI extreme movements.
本文将极端总外国直接投资流量事件分为四类。它通过估计1990-2018年期间50个发展中经济体的互补对数-对数(Clog–log)和probit回归,实证研究了每种类型的决定因素。我们记录了国内GDP增长率、通货膨胀、制度质量和人力资本是外国直接投资流动的主要实证驱动因素。世界不确定性指数与流入发展中国家的外国直接投资呈负相关。此外,我们发现国内GDP增长率与外国直接投资激增和外国直接投资外逃的概率呈正相关。相比之下,通货膨胀与外国直接投资激增事件呈负相关。这些发现有助于更好地了解流入和流出发展中国家的外国直接投资的经验决定因素。研究结果也有助于理解外国直接投资极端运动的行为。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies
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