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Trade Competition Between ASEAN, China, and India: The Post-trade War and COVID-19 Scenario 东盟、中国和印度之间的贸易竞争:贸易后战争与新冠肺炎情景
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-21 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211073376
Atsuyuki Kato
This study examines the exports of large developing economies; such as Association of South-East Asian Nations (ASEAN), China, and India, and discusses the post-trade war and COVID-19 scenario. Applying an export sophistication index to their trade data, we investigate the export structure of these economies. In addition, using regression analysis, we examine the resilience of their skill and technology-intensive manufacturing exports to exchange rate and demand shocks. The estimated export sophistication index detects that China’s export sophistication has not always been a step ahead in comparison to ASEAN countries and India, which contrasts with China’s remarkable export growth. Our panel DOLS estimation reveals that their manufacturing exports are highly responsive to demand shocks, although the effects of bilateral exchange rate changes vary across product groups. An appreciation of the competitors’ currencies possibly encourages their manufacturing exports. In addition, our estimation reveals that China possibly mitigates the negative effects of the trade war and COVID-19 with its advantage in the global value chains as a contributor of value-added. These results have some implications for the effects of decoupling China and the USA because of their trade war and COVID-19 situation.
这项研究考察了大型发展中经济体的出口情况;如东南亚国家联盟(东盟)、中国和印度,并讨论了战后和新冠肺炎情景。将出口复杂度指数应用于它们的贸易数据,我们调查了这些经济体的出口结构。此外,使用回归分析,我们检验了他们的技能和技术密集型制造业出口对汇率和需求冲击的弹性。估计出口复杂度指数发现,与东盟国家和印度相比,中国的出口复杂度并不总是领先一步,这与中国显著的出口增长形成了鲜明对比。我们的DOLS小组估计显示,尽管双边汇率变化的影响因产品组而异,但它们的制造业出口对需求冲击的反应非常强烈。竞争对手的货币升值可能会鼓励他们的制造业出口。此外,我们的估计表明,中国可能会利用其在全球价值链中的优势,作为增值贡献者,减轻贸易战和新冠肺炎的负面影响。这些结果对中美两国因贸易战和新冠肺炎形势而脱钩的影响有一定影响。
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引用次数: 0
Does Tourism Affect Sustainable Development in MINT Countries? 旅游业是否影响MINT国家的可持续发展?
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-11 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211064388
T. Osinubi, A. Adedoyin, Osinubi Olufemi, F. Ajide
Following the failure to achieve Millennium Development Goals by most countries in the world, Sustainable Development Goals are now at the center of developmental issues. Consequently, this study aims to examine if tourism can be an ally to sustainable development in MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria, Turkey) countries between 1995 and 2018. The study uses adjusted net saving and international tourism receipts in these countries as measures of sustainable development and tourism, respectively. In achieving its objectives, the study employs the augmented mean group (AMG) estimation technique to estimate the long-run parameters. Besides, mean group (MG) and common correlated effects MG techniques are employed to check the robustness of the estimates obtained via the AMG approach. The results from the three estimators show that tourism is indeed an ally to sustainable development in MINT countries since there is a significant positive relationship between tourism and sustainable development. In other words, tourism can put the MINT countries on the path to sustainable development. This implies that any policy that will enhance the performance of the tourism industry will ensure sustainable development in MINT countries. Thus, the governments of MINT countries should focus basically on achieving sustainable tourism development, as this will translate to sustainable development in their countries.
在世界上大多数国家未能实现千年发展目标之后,可持续发展目标成为当今发展问题的核心。因此,本研究旨在研究旅游业是否可以成为1995年至2018年间MINT(墨西哥,印度尼西亚,尼日利亚,土耳其)国家可持续发展的盟友。这项研究分别使用这些国家调整后的储蓄净额和国际旅游收入作为可持续发展和旅游业的衡量标准。为了实现其目标,本研究采用增广平均群(AMG)估计技术来估计长期参数。此外,采用平均群(MG)和共同相关效应MG技术来检验AMG方法估计的鲁棒性。三个估计的结果表明,旅游业确实是MINT国家可持续发展的盟友,因为旅游业与可持续发展之间存在显著的正相关关系。换句话说,旅游业可以使MINT国家走上可持续发展的道路。这意味着任何提高旅游业绩效的政策都将确保MINT国家的可持续发展。因此,MINT国家的政府应该基本上把重点放在实现可持续旅游发展上,因为这将转化为其国家的可持续发展。
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引用次数: 5
Military Economy and Economic Growth: Bidirectional Effects in Transition Economies of Eurasia 军事经济与经济增长:欧亚经济转型中的双向效应
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-11 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211067296
K. Rudy
Recently, the worrisome rise of military economy in Eurasian transition economies has raised concerns on what is behind this trend and what are its economic consequences. Based on the evidence from 26 Eurasian countries selected into two subgroups “Russia+10” and “15 Central and Eastern European” (CEE) countries over the period from 1991 to 2019, this article focuses on the military economy overview in this region and demonstrates the result of panel data estimations of bidirectional relation between military economy indicators and economic growth. The study shows that in “Russia+10,” military expenditures to GDP and to government spending have a positive effect on growth, and economic growth has a negative influence on these two indicators. Moreover, armed forces to labor forces have a positive bidirectional relation with economic growth in “Russia+10.” For the samples of “15 CEE” and all Eurasian countries, there are not always statistically significant results to offer clear conclusion on bidirectional effects between military expenditures to GDP and to budget expenses and economic growth. Armed forces to labor forces show a positive effect on growth in Eurasia and “15 CEE” countries.
最近,欧亚转型经济体中军事经济的崛起令人担忧,这一趋势背后的原因及其经济后果引起了人们的关注。本文以1991年至2019年26个欧亚国家“俄罗斯+10”和“15个中东欧国家”两个亚组的证据为基础,重点研究了该地区军事经济概况,并展示了军事经济指标与经济增长之间双向关系的面板数据估计结果。研究表明,在“俄罗斯+10”中,军费与GDP和政府支出之比对经济增长有正向影响,经济增长对这两个指标有负向影响。此外,在“俄罗斯+10”中,武装力量与劳动力的比例与经济增长之间存在正的双向关系。对于“15个中东欧”和所有欧亚国家的样本,并不总是有统计上显著的结果,以提供明确的结论军费开支对GDP和预算开支和经济增长之间的双向影响。从武装力量到劳动力,对欧亚大陆和中东欧15国的经济增长产生了积极影响。
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引用次数: 4
Credit Constraints and Increased Firm-Level Production Fragmentation: Evidence from India 信贷约束和企业层面生产碎片化的增加:来自印度的证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211067722
D. Ghosh, Meghna Dutta
Previous studies have underlined various rationales for production fragmentation from wage differentials, decreased trade costs, access to specialized skills and resources, access to new markets, and benevolent government policies, to technological advancement. However, the idea that a firm’s financing structure can influence its production structure remains less explored, more so empirically. Firms that are financially constrained find it difficult to complete the entire production process in-house and therefore tend to resort to production fragmentation. The current study investigates this link between the extent of credit constraints faced by firms and their outsourcing behavior using data from Indian manufacturing firms over a period of ten years. We also separately study this linkage for firms that tend to export more vis-à-vis firms that export less, to ascertain if increased exporting have relaxed the financial constraint of the firms. The results confirm the positive effect of credit constraints on outsourcing behavior. For a robustness check, subsample regressions and alternative measures of constraints are also analyzed. The study has important policy implications for developing countries such as India, where outsourcing may prove to be a profitable reorganization strategy for firms that are financially constrained.
以前的研究强调了生产碎片化的各种理由,从工资差异、贸易成本下降、获得专业技能和资源、进入新市场、仁慈的政府政策到技术进步。然而,企业的融资结构可以影响其生产结构的观点仍然很少被探索,更多的是经验。资金紧张的公司很难在内部完成整个生产过程,因此倾向于采用生产分散的方式。目前的研究调查了企业面临的信贷限制程度与其外包行为之间的联系,使用的数据来自印度制造业企业超过十年的时间。我们还分别研究了倾向于出口更多的公司与出口较少的公司之间的这种联系,以确定出口增加是否放松了公司的财务约束。研究结果证实了信贷约束对外包行为的正向影响。为了稳健性检查,还分析了子样本回归和约束的替代措施。这项研究对印度等发展中国家具有重要的政策意义,在这些国家,外包可能被证明是财务受限的公司有利可图的重组战略。
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引用次数: 2
The Use of Digitalization (ICTs) in Achieving Sustainable Development Goals 利用数字化实现可持续发展目标
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211067295
S. Vyas-Doorgapersad
The article examines the use of information and communication technologies (ICT) in achieving sustainable development goals (SDGs). This link is conceptually and contextually analyzed in the global context whereby scholarly opinions and research works are discussed to substantiate the role that ICT can play in achieving SDGs. The article further examines the link in South Africa, using the country as a locus of the study. The article aims to find answers to the following research questions: How is ICT linked to all 17 SDGs? To what extent this link may accelerate SDGs’ implementation? What is the impact of ICT on accelerating SDGs? What are the challenges hampering the efficient utilization of ICT for SDGs’ implementation? The article uses a qualitative approach with desktop analysis to draw significant information. In addition, unobtrusive methods were applied, such as conceptual analysis and document analysis, to draw conclusions based on the findings. The findings confirm that despite ICT policies and infrastructure, the use and impact of ICT on SDGs is not always high. The article suggests that improvements are required at policy, institutional, department and individual levels. The suggestions can be applicable globally, based on the technological advancement and socio-economic development in country-specific contexts.
本文探讨了信息和通信技术在实现可持续发展目标中的应用。这一联系在全球背景下进行了概念和背景分析,讨论了学术观点和研究工作,以证实信息和通信技术在实现可持续发展目标中可以发挥的作用。这篇文章以南非为研究中心,进一步探讨了这种联系。这篇文章旨在找到以下研究问题的答案:信息和通信技术如何与所有17个可持续发展目标联系在一起?这种联系可以在多大程度上加速可持续发展目标的实施?信息和通信技术对加速实现可持续发展目标有何影响?阻碍有效利用信息和通信技术实现可持续发展目标的挑战是什么?这篇文章使用了定性方法和桌面分析来获取重要信息。此外,还采用了概念分析和文件分析等不引人注目的方法,根据调查结果得出结论。研究结果证实,尽管有信通技术政策和基础设施,但信通技术的使用和对可持续发展目标的影响并不总是很高。文章指出,需要在政策、机构、部门和个人层面进行改进。这些建议可以根据具体国家的技术进步和社会经济发展情况在全球范围内适用。
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引用次数: 16
Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Indonesia 印尼外国直接投资的决定因素
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-10 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211067856
Barli Suryanta, A. Patunru
We examine what determines the flow of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Indonesia, focusing on the role of institutional measures. A knowledge-and-physical-capital (KPC) model is applied to a panel dataset that covers 42 of Indonesia’s FDI partners from 2004 to 2012. Evidence shows that both horizontal and vertical FDIs coexist in the bilateral aggregate data of Indonesia’s FDI flows, but horizontal FDI appears to be dominant. This can be explained by the market size (proxied by the total GDP of both countries and similarity in incomes per capita) and the relative factor endowments (proxied by skilled labor and physical capital). The vertical FDI, on the other hand, could be only explained by the significant effect of unskilled labor. Institutional factors, particularly corruption, are apparently important in affecting Indonesia’s bilateral FDI flows. The results also show that a higher FDI level in Indonesia positively correlates with macroeconomic factors, open policy factors, and utility infrastructure factors.
我们研究是什么决定了外国直接投资(FDI)在印度尼西亚的流动,重点是制度措施的作用。将知识和实物资本(KPC)模型应用于涵盖2004年至2012年印尼42个外国直接投资伙伴的面板数据集。有证据表明,横向和纵向的外国直接投资在印度尼西亚的双边外国直接投资流量汇总数据中并存,但横向外国直接投资似乎占主导地位。这可以用市场规模(以两国的GDP总量和人均收入的相似性为代表)和相对要素禀赋(以熟练劳动力和实物资本为代表)来解释。另一方面,垂直FDI只能用非熟练劳动力的显著效应来解释。体制因素,特别是腐败,显然是影响印尼双边外国直接投资流动的重要因素。结果还表明,印尼较高的FDI水平与宏观经济因素、开放政策因素和公用事业基础设施因素呈正相关。
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引用次数: 0
Dynamics of Information Acquisition: Does Investment in Information Technology Matter? 信息获取动力学:信息技术投资重要吗?
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-09 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211062284
Y. A. Arabyat, O. Aziz
The purpose of the study is to develop a theoretical model to ascertain if the IT investment in the banking sector is capable of generating a new equilibrium with increased efficiency. The empirical strategy is to seek an indirect test for Jordanian banking sector by looking at the time profile of banking profits as a temporal function of IT investment. The study enquires if the banking sector, as an iterative process of credit allocation and information acquisition through IT investment, lead to a stable equilibrium? Does IT investment ensure stable market shares for Jordanian banks in the long run? The study finds that investment in IT has led the banking system in Jordan away from an efficient equilibrium. We also find that the banks in Jordan directly interact with each other, although they may have collusive arrangements with some of their rivals, this means the banking market is not fragmented.
本研究的目的是建立一个理论模型,以确定银行部门的信息技术投资是否能够产生一个新的平衡与提高效率。实证策略是通过观察银行利润的时间概况作为IT投资的时间函数,寻求对约旦银行业的间接测试。该研究询问,作为一个通过IT投资进行信贷分配和信息获取的迭代过程,银行业是否会导致稳定的均衡?从长远来看,IT投资能确保约旦银行稳定的市场份额吗?研究发现,对IT的投资导致约旦的银行体系偏离了有效均衡。我们还发现,约旦的银行之间直接互动,尽管它们可能与一些竞争对手有串通安排,但这意味着银行市场并不分散。
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引用次数: 0
The Impacts of Population Aging on China’s Economy 人口老龄化对中国经济的影响
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-06 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211067079
Y. Hsu, Hiroshi Yoshida, Fengming Chen
The Chinese economy had an extraordinary average GDP growth rate of 8.50 percent from 1980 to 2018. However, the implementation of one-child policy in the late 1970s has depressed the total fertility rate to below the replacement rate since 1992. China thus experienced an increasing composition of older populations in the past three decades, which puts pressure on Chinese economic growth and makes its eye-catching economic growth potentially unsustainable. This study develops an overlapping generations (OLG) model to investigate the impacts of this demographic transition in the Chinese economy. This study conducts six policy reform exercises to examine measures that could improve the sustainability of fiscal and pension systems. The simulation results indicate that a mild tax increase on either wage income or consumption does not improve the fiscal stance but creates distortionary effects on saving and consumption behaviors. Of the pension reform measures considered, the combination of extending the mandatory retirement age and cutting the replacement ratio offers the most significant improvement to pension sustainability. However, increasing the contribution rate of the working-age population has the least effect on pension sustainability and a noticeable distortionary effect on the consumption ratio and saving rate.
从1980年到2018年,中国经济的平均GDP增长率高达8.50%。然而,20世纪70年代末实施的独生子女政策使总生育率自1992年以来一直低于更替率。因此,在过去三十年中,中国老年人口的构成不断增加,这给中国的经济增长带来了压力,并使其引人注目的经济增长可能不可持续。本研究开发了一个重叠世代(OLG)模型来研究这种人口结构转型对中国经济的影响。这项研究进行了六项政策改革,以审查可以提高财政和养老金制度可持续性的措施。模拟结果表明,对工资收入或消费适度加税并不能改善财政状况,反而会对储蓄和消费行为产生扭曲效应。在考虑的养老金改革措施中,延长强制性退休年龄和降低更替率相结合,对养老金的可持续性提供了最显著的改善。然而,提高劳动年龄人口的缴费率对养老金可持续性的影响最小,对消费率和储蓄率的扭曲影响明显。
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引用次数: 3
External Shocks and Their Transmission Channels in Nigeria: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach 尼日利亚的外部冲击及其传导渠道:动态随机一般均衡方法
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-06 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211067311
T. Ojeyinka, D. Yinusa
The study examines the sources of external shocks and investigates their transmission channels in Nigeria using the trade-weighted variables from the country’s five top trading partners. Based on the assumption of the small open economy model, the study adopts the New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model on quarterly data between 1981 and 2018 using the Bayesian estimation technique. Findings from the study reveal that external shocks have a temporary and short-lived effect on the Nigerian economy. In addition, the article shows that oil price, foreign output, and foreign inflation shock have positive impacts on output gap and inflation, while the impact of foreign interest rate shock on the output gap and inflation is negative and not significant. The study also reveals that external shocks collectively explain 86% and 39%of total fluctuations in the output gap and inflation, respectively. Lastly, the study finds that external shocks transmit to the Nigerian economy via different channels. The study, therefore, concludes that terms of trade and exchange rate channels are the dominant transmitters of external shocks in Nigeria. Based on the findings from the study, important policy implications are highlighted.
该研究调查了外部冲击的来源,并使用该国五大贸易伙伴的贸易加权变量调查了其在尼日利亚的传播渠道。基于小型开放型经济模型的假设,本研究采用新凯恩斯主义动态随机一般均衡模型,对1981年至2018年的季度数据进行贝叶斯估计。研究结果表明,外部冲击对尼日利亚经济产生了短暂的影响。此外,文章还表明,油价、国外产出和国外通胀冲击对产出缺口和通胀有正向影响,而国外利率冲击对产出差距和通胀的影响是负的,并不显著。研究还表明,外部冲击分别解释了产出缺口和通货膨胀总波动的86%和39%。最后,研究发现,外部冲击通过不同渠道传递给尼日利亚经济。因此,该研究得出结论,贸易条件和汇率渠道是尼日利亚外部冲击的主要传导者。根据研究结果,强调了重要的政策影响。
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引用次数: 1
Do Trade and Poverty Cause Each Other? Evidence from BRICS 贸易和贫困是互为因果的吗?金砖国家的证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-04 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211067076
M. N. Rahman, Nida Rahman, A. Turay, Munir Hassan
Any two variables that are observable have one or the other form of relationship. This is particularly a statistical relationship. But for a statistical relationship to be cause and effect, a theoretical relationship is important. The theoretical relationship can be quantified to search for the evidence of causality. The possible outcomes can be no causality, unidirectional causality, or bidirectional causality. The present study aims at searching for evidence from BRICS countries regarding trade causing poverty or vice versa. Applied econometrics approach is used in the study. Panel econometric techniques have been employed to identify presence/absence of causality between the variables. Apart from this, the study also uses equality of means to identify whether trade and poverty proxies are symmetrical or asymmetrical. The study finds no causal relationship between trade and poverty for BRICS countries except that poverty headcount at $3.2 per day causes trade balance. With respect to the impact on the GINI index, lowest 10 percent income share and poverty headcount ratios are integral to reduce the inequality in the BRICS countries.
任何两个可观测的变量都有一种或另一种形式的关系。这尤其是一种统计关系。但要使统计关系成为因果关系,理论关系是重要的。理论关系可以量化,以寻找因果关系的证据。可能的结果可以是无因果关系、单向因果关系或双向因果关系。本研究旨在从金砖国家寻找贸易导致贫困或贸易导致贫困的证据。本研究采用了应用计量经济学的方法。采用了面板计量经济学技术来确定变量之间是否存在因果关系。除此之外,该研究还使用平等手段来确定贸易和贫困指标是对称的还是不对称的。该研究发现,金砖国家的贸易和贫困之间没有因果关系,只是每天3.2美元的贫困人口会导致贸易平衡。就对基尼指数的影响而言,最低的10%收入份额和贫困人口比例是减少金砖国家不平等的不可或缺的因素。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies
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