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Macroeconomic News and Exchange Rates: Exploring the Role of Order Flow 宏观经济新闻与汇率:探索订单流的作用
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-09-27 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211040146
M. Jabeen, A. Rashid
This article studies the effects of macroeconomic news announcements and order flow on exchange rates in Pakistan by considering both direct and indirect information channels during news announcements periods. For this purpose, it employs GARCH models by using real-time data on macroeconomic news, order flow, and exchange rates. The findings reveal that macroeconomic news directly, and indirectly affect Pak Rupee exchange rates. The results also show that the order flow drives fluctuations in Pak Rupee exchange rates indicating the role of trade signals and trading strategies of currency traders in the exchange rate determination. Hence, as part of an aggregated economic component and means of public and private information, macroeconomic news and order flow impact Pak Rupee exchange rates as an integrated determinant. When macroeconomic news strikes the foreign exchange market, it affects the decisions of market makers, influencing order flow, and then exchange rates.
本文通过考虑新闻发布期间的直接和间接信息渠道,研究了宏观经济新闻发布和订单流对巴基斯坦汇率的影响。为此,它通过使用宏观经济新闻、订单流和汇率的实时数据,采用GARCH模型。研究结果表明,宏观经济消息直接和间接影响巴基斯坦卢比汇率。结果还表明,订单流驱动了巴基斯坦卢比汇率的波动,这表明货币交易员的交易信号和交易策略在汇率决定中的作用。因此,作为综合经济组成部分和公共和私人信息手段的一部分,宏观经济新闻和订单流作为一个综合决定因素影响巴基斯坦卢比汇率。当宏观经济消息冲击外汇市场时,它会影响做市商的决策,影响订单流,然后影响汇率。
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引用次数: 0
The Impact of Export Destination on Skills in a Middle-Income Country 中等收入国家出口目的地对技能的影响
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211040145
Adriana Peluffo
This study analyzes the relationship among exports to high-income countries on the demand for skilled labor. To this aim, we use a panel of Uruguayan manufacturing firms for the period 1997–2006. The results show that, contrary to studies for developed and other middle-income economies, exports to high-income countries do not result in a higher demand for skilled labor. The explanation for these results may lie in the productive specialization of the country.
本研究分析了对高收入国家的出口与技术劳动力需求之间的关系。为此,我们使用了1997年至2006年期间的乌拉圭制造公司小组。结果表明,与对发达经济体和其他中等收入经济体的研究相反,对高收入国家的出口并没有导致对熟练劳动力的更高需求。对这些结果的解释可能在于该国的生产专业化。
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引用次数: 0
What Drives Banking Profitability During Financial Crisis and Political Turmoil? Evidence from the MENA Region 在金融危机和政治动荡期间,是什么推动了银行业的盈利能力?中东和北非地区的证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211031102
Salma Zaiane, F. B. Moussa
The purpose of the study is to identify bank specific, macroeconomic, and stability determinants of both conventional and Islamic bank performance. We also try to identify evidence on the impact of financial crisis and political instability during the Arab Spring (AS) period. The study covers a sample of 123 banks (34 Islamic banks and 89 conventional banks from 13 Middle East and North Africa [MENA] countries) over the period 2000–2013. We use different proxies of performance as dependent variables: return on asset (ROA), return on equity (ROE), net income margin (NIM), and estimate several regressions using the dynamic generalized method of moments. Our results reveal that bank size, asset quality, specialization, and diversification are the major bank specific factors affecting performance of Islamic and conventional banks. Besides, macroeconomic indicators (GDP and inflation) and regulatory quality influence both types of banks differently. Finally, both the financial crisis and political instability negatively affect bank performance.
该研究的目的是确定传统银行和伊斯兰银行业绩的特定银行、宏观经济和稳定性决定因素。我们还试图找出阿拉伯之春期间金融危机和政治不稳定影响的证据。该研究涵盖了2000-2003年期间123家银行(来自13个中东和北非国家的34家伊斯兰银行和89家传统银行)的样本。我们使用不同的绩效指标作为因变量:资产收益率(ROA)、股本回报率(ROE)、净收入率(NIM),并使用动态广义矩法估计几个回归。我们的研究结果表明,银行规模、资产质量、专业化和多元化是影响伊斯兰银行和传统银行业绩的主要银行特定因素。此外,宏观经济指标(GDP和通货膨胀)和监管质量对这两类银行的影响不同。最后,金融危机和政治不稳定都会对银行业绩产生负面影响。
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引用次数: 6
Official Intervention and Exchange Rate Determination: Evidence from India 官方干预与汇率决定:来自印度的证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211031123
A. Rishad, S. Gupta, A. Sharma
Despite the adoption of a market-oriented regime, Reserve Bank of India explicitly practices sterilized intervention to normalize unfavourable developments in the market. This study seeks to find empirical evidence on the intensity to which the monetary authority was able to achieve its policy objective of directing exchange rate in the anticipated trail. The study employed an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to estimate the central bank reaction function in this regard. It was found that 1% purchase of foreign exchange reserve (net intervention) depreciated Indian Rupee by 0.255% for long-term. Whereas in short-term, intervention followed “leaning against the wind” policy to curb market vagueness. The findings of the study recommend that there should be more coordinated approach between official intervention policy and monetary policy formulation in consonance with the economic fundamentals for increasing the effectiveness and sustainability of the intervention operations.
尽管采用了以市场为导向的制度,印度储备银行明确实行冲销式干预,以使市场的不利发展正常化。本研究旨在寻找经验证据,证明货币当局能够在预期的轨迹中实现其指导汇率的政策目标的强度。本研究采用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型来估计中央银行在这方面的反应函数。结果发现,1%的外汇储备购买(净干预)使印度卢比长期贬值0.255%。而在短期内,干预遵循“逆风”政策,以抑制市场的模糊性。研究结果建议,在官方干预政策和货币政策制定之间应该有更协调的方法,以符合经济基本面,以提高干预操作的有效性和可持续性。
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引用次数: 1
Emerging Challenges and Prospects of Digital Transformation and Stakeholders Integration in Urban Land Administration in Ethiopia 埃塞俄比亚城市土地管理数字化转型和利益相关者整合的新挑战和前景
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-09-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211034097
H. G. Gebrihet, P. Pillay
There is global consensus on the need for information and communication technology (ICT) to support digital transformation in public administration. This is specifically true in decentralized public administration, where the stakeholders need a modern technology that integrates them. This study examines the emerging challenges and prospects of digital transformation and the stakeholders’ integration in urban land administration in Mekelle City, Ethiopia. An interpretive paradigm, qualitative analytical method, and case study strategy were adopted for this study. A total of 78 interviewees comprising 30 auctioneers, 20 experts, 20 officials, 4 judges, and 4 prosecutors participated based on the data saturation principle. The study revealed that digitalized land administration offers opportunities to reduce civil servants’ workload, improve cost-effective service delivery, and enhance trust between the municipal government and its clients. However, the system of urban land administration in the city is not digitalized due to financial limitations and leadership challenges. Furthermore, this study revealed a low level of stakeholders’ integration in Mekelle due to the lack of proper implementation of e-government, e-service, and e-participation, including lack of commitment by the stakeholders. Thus, a non-digitalized land administration system, insufficient capacity, and weak monitoring and evaluation systems impeded the client’s pursuit of enhanced municipal government services.
信息通信技术(ICT)支持公共行政数字化转型的必要性已成为全球共识。在分散的公共行政中尤其如此,利益相关者需要一种现代技术来整合他们。本研究考察了埃塞俄比亚Mekelle市城市土地管理中数字化转型和利益相关者整合的新挑战和前景。本研究采用解释范式、定性分析方法和个案研究策略。根据数据饱和原则,共有30名拍卖师、20名专家、20名官员、4名法官、4名检察官等78名受访者参与了调查。该研究表明,数字化土地管理为减少公务员的工作量、改善具有成本效益的服务提供了机会,并增强了市政府与客户之间的信任。然而,由于资金限制和领导挑战,城市土地管理系统没有实现数字化。此外,本研究发现,由于缺乏适当的电子政务、电子服务和电子参与,包括缺乏利益相关者的承诺,梅克乐的利益相关者整合水平较低。因此,非数字化的土地管理系统、能力不足以及薄弱的监测和评估系统阻碍了客户对市政服务的追求。
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引用次数: 3
Why Does Microfinance Target Women? Empirical Evidence from Nigeria 小额信贷为何以女性为目标?来自尼日利亚的经验证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-08-26 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211040144
Musiliu Okesina
Over the last three decades, microfinance has featured in the Global South development policies as a potential contributor to inclusive financial services, poverty reduction and women empowerment. However, why women are the primary customers of microfinance banks and institutions remains an ongoing research subject. This article presents a study of women in Rivers State, Nigeria, using qualitative research approach. It was found that microfinance financial inclusion objectives in Nigeria are targeted at the active poor—those who own small business and rely on group lending methodology and collateral substitutes to minimize lending risks. Of the active poor, microfinance prioritizes women because of gender stereotypes that women have more “integrity,” show more commitment to loan contracts and are more susceptible to social pressure and sanctions. Targeting women is, therefore, a deliberate and strategic policy to advance the interest of microfinance backers. Therefore, this author contends that microfinance is not a scheme that provides whole-scale financial inclusion and poverty reduction. Instead, it seeks to leverage income-generating activities of the active poor to extract profits. Consequently, the article contributes towards illuminating the role of gender and local context in microfinance practices.
在过去三十年中,小额信贷作为包容性金融服务、减贫和增强妇女权能的潜在贡献者,在全球南方发展政策中占有重要地位。然而,为什么妇女是小额信贷银行和机构的主要客户仍然是一个正在进行的研究课题。本文采用定性研究方法对尼日利亚河流州的妇女进行了研究。研究发现,尼日利亚的小额信贷普惠金融目标针对的是活跃的贫困人口——那些拥有小企业并依靠集体贷款方法和抵押品替代品来最大限度地降低贷款风险的人。在活跃的贫困人口中,小额信贷优先考虑妇女,因为性别刻板印象认为妇女更“正直”,对贷款合同表现出更大的承诺,更容易受到社会压力和制裁。因此,以妇女为目标是促进小额信贷支持者利益的一项深思熟虑的战略政策。因此,本文认为小额信贷不是一种提供全面金融普惠和减贫的方案。相反,它寻求利用活跃穷人的创收活动来榨取利润。因此,本文有助于阐明性别和地方背景在小额信贷实践中的作用。
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引用次数: 0
The Art of Trade War: Spurring Investments in Indonesia Amidst the US–China Trade War 贸易战的艺术:在中美贸易战中刺激印尼投资
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-08-26 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211034110
Hilda Yanuar Jong
The US–China trade war creates significant opportunities for developing countries, as global manufacturers need to relocate their production facilities out of China to avoid future tariff hikes. However, Indonesia as the biggest economy in the ASEAN is not experiencing any substantial advantage relative to its neighbors, especially compared to Vietnam. While there is no clarity on how long the trade war will last, it is important for Indonesia to strategize quickly to capitalize the opportunities. This article addresses the question of how Indonesia should strategize through country comparison and analysis of two types of policy competition, namely, incentives-based (IBC) and rules-based competition (RBC). In the short-term, Indonesia should be more accommodating for investors of all sizes and maximize the trade-related investment assistance. In the longer term, Indonesia should prudently open up to trade, improve cooperation between investment and trade functions, and build a positive public mindset for free trade.
美中贸易战为发展中国家创造了重大机遇,因为全球制造商需要将生产设施迁出中国,以避免未来关税上调。然而,印度尼西亚作为东盟最大的经济体,与邻国相比,尤其是与越南相比,没有任何实质性优势。虽然目前尚不清楚贸易战将持续多久,但印尼必须迅速制定战略,抓住机遇。本文通过对两种类型的政策竞争(即基于激励的竞争和基于规则的竞争)的国家比较和分析,探讨了印度尼西亚应如何制定战略的问题。从短期来看,印度尼西亚应该更加包容各种规模的投资者,并最大限度地提供与贸易有关的投资援助。从长远来看,印尼应谨慎开放贸易,改善投资和贸易职能之间的合作,并为自由贸易树立积极的公众心态。
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引用次数: 2
An Examination of Per Capita Income Convergence in Emerging Market Economies 新兴市场经济体人均收入趋同研究
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-08-24 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211034111
P. Sharma, Nidhi Sharma
The study intends to examine the convergence of per capita income in emerging market economies (EMEs) toward a steady state for the post reform period (1999–2019). Cross-sectional regression analysis has been performed for unconditional convergence and a panel data regression to find the conditional convergence in EMEs. Sigma convergence has been applied to find the dispersion of income level in EMEs. In addition, to find the impact of global financial crisis on the convergence process of EMEs, unit root test with one structural break has been applied. The findings indicate that there exists unconditional convergence among EMEs toward a common steady state. Further, the results show a significant role of all control variables except education in the growth process but prove the absence of conditional convergence in selected EMEs. The results of sigma convergence find that the dispersion of per capita income is declining in EMEs, showing the sign of sigma convergence in EMEs. However, this study provides further scope to examine per capita income convergence among EMEs by including other variables and their effect on the convergence process of EMEs.
该研究旨在检验新兴市场经济体在改革后时期(1999-2009年)的人均收入是否趋于稳定。对无条件收敛性进行了截面回归分析,并对面板数据进行了回归,以发现EMEs中的条件收敛性。西格玛收敛已被应用于寻找新兴市场经济体收入水平的分散性。此外,为了发现全球金融危机对新兴市场经济体趋同过程的影响,应用了一次结构断裂的单位根检验。研究结果表明,新兴市场经济体之间存在向共同稳态的无条件收敛。此外,研究结果表明,除教育外,所有控制变量在成长过程中都发挥着重要作用,但证明了在选定的EME中不存在条件收敛。西格玛收敛的结果表明,新兴市场经济体的人均收入离散度呈下降趋势,表现出西格玛收敛的迹象。然而,本研究通过纳入其他变量及其对新兴市场国家趋同过程的影响,为研究新兴市场国家之间的人均收入趋同提供了进一步的空间。
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引用次数: 1
Editorial 编辑
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211002344
Biliang Hu
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引用次数: 0
Politics and Governance in Emerging Market Countries 新兴市场国家的政治与治理
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2021-05-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211004378
Min Liu
The rise of emerging market countries is of great significance for improving global governance. This study finds that 30 emerging market countries (E30) 1 , especially those in Africa and Asia, are relatively weak in governance. In the future, improvement in governance would be a critical factor for the economic growth of E30 countries, especially if these countries enjoy political stability. Though most of the E30 countries lack political stability, they have the capability for good governance, and their governments are striving to become more effective, which is particularly true for Asian countries. Unfortunately, for Latin American countries, corruption is a serious problem likely to undermine economic development in the region.
新兴市场国家的崛起对完善全球治理具有重要意义。本研究发现,30个新兴市场国家(E30)1,特别是非洲和亚洲的国家,在治理方面相对较弱。未来,治理的改善将是E30国家经济增长的关键因素,特别是如果这些国家享有政治稳定的话。尽管大多数E30国家缺乏政治稳定,但它们有良好治理的能力,它们的政府正在努力提高效率,这对亚洲国家来说尤其如此。不幸的是,对拉丁美洲国家来说,腐败是一个严重的问题,可能会破坏该地区的经济发展。
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引用次数: 1
期刊
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies
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