首页 > 最新文献

Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies最新文献

英文 中文
Assessing the Long-Run Sustainability of Public Debt and Fiscal Deficit in India 评估印度公共债务和财政赤字的长期可持续性
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-08-13 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221113881
Abdhut Deheri, Ajit Nag
This article assesses the long-run sustainability of public debt and fiscal deficit in India for the period 1980–1981 to 2019–2020. The study estimated a model-based fiscal reaction function (FRF) using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to assess debt sustainability. The results revealed that the primary surplus responds positively and significantly to the previous period debt in both the short- and long-run. This implies that the fiscal policy satisfies the intertemporal budget constraint (IBC) and follows the debt-stabilizing rule. Next, to assess the sustainability of the fiscal deficit, we examined the long-run association between total revenues and total expenditures using a structural break cointegration test. The results revealed that they are cointegrated, implying that IBC is met and the fiscal deficit is sustainable. The results of long-run estimation provide evidence in support of strong budgetary sustainability. Overall, the results indicate that the public debt and the fiscal deficit are sustainable in India. From a policy standpoint, our research suggests that the government should take the necessary measures to reduce the growing public debt to ensure its long-run sustainability.
本文评估了1980-1981年至2019-2020年期间印度公共债务和财政赤字的长期可持续性。该研究使用自回归分布滞后(ARDL)模型估计了基于模型的财政反应函数(FRF),以评估债务可持续性。结果表明,无论是短期还是长期,初级盈余对前期债务都有显著的正向反应。这意味着财政政策满足跨期预算约束(IBC),并遵循债务稳定规则。接下来,为了评估财政赤字的可持续性,我们使用结构断裂协整检验检验了总收入和总支出之间的长期关联。结果表明,它们是协整的,这意味着IBC是满足的,财政赤字是可持续的。长期估计的结果为支持预算的强大可持续性提供了证据。总体而言,结果表明印度的公共债务和财政赤字是可持续的。从政策的角度来看,我们的研究建议政府应采取必要措施减少日益增长的公共债务,以确保其长期可持续性。
{"title":"Assessing the Long-Run Sustainability of Public Debt and Fiscal Deficit in India","authors":"Abdhut Deheri, Ajit Nag","doi":"10.1177/09749101221113881","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101221113881","url":null,"abstract":"This article assesses the long-run sustainability of public debt and fiscal deficit in India for the period 1980–1981 to 2019–2020. The study estimated a model-based fiscal reaction function (FRF) using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model to assess debt sustainability. The results revealed that the primary surplus responds positively and significantly to the previous period debt in both the short- and long-run. This implies that the fiscal policy satisfies the intertemporal budget constraint (IBC) and follows the debt-stabilizing rule. Next, to assess the sustainability of the fiscal deficit, we examined the long-run association between total revenues and total expenditures using a structural break cointegration test. The results revealed that they are cointegrated, implying that IBC is met and the fiscal deficit is sustainable. The results of long-run estimation provide evidence in support of strong budgetary sustainability. Overall, the results indicate that the public debt and the fiscal deficit are sustainable in India. From a policy standpoint, our research suggests that the government should take the necessary measures to reduce the growing public debt to ensure its long-run sustainability.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-08-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"45242431","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Disentangling the Nexus Between Exchange Rate Volatility, Exports, and FDI: Empirical Evidence from the Indian Economy 解开汇率波动、出口和外国直接投资之间的联系:来自印度经济的经验证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-07-19 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221108788
A. Jamal, G. Bhat
The primary objective of the study was to scrutinize the effect of exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and Indian exports during the flexible exchange rate period. The bounds testing procedure confirmed the presence of a single (stable) long-run relationship between exports, conditional exchange rate volatility, and unconditional exchange rate volatility. The autoregressive distributed lag model verified that volatility in Indian rupee vis-à-vis USD had a significant (negative) impact on Indian exports and FDI inflows. Besides, trade openness and gross domestic product, in the long run, were positive and significant in explaining the exports and FDI inflows. Based on the empirical results, India should devise suitable macroeconomic policies to reduce exchange rate volatility to make the export-led growth strategy a success. Moreover, emerging and progressive economies like India should strengthen and streamline their domestic foreign exchange markets without compromising the level of trade openness. More precisely, the forward exchange markets’ coverage should be broadened, as they provide protection (hedging) against the exchange rate volatility in the long run.
该研究的主要目的是审查汇率波动对灵活汇率期间外国直接投资流入和印度出口的影响。边界检验程序证实了出口、有条件汇率波动和无条件汇率波动之间存在单一(稳定)的长期关系。自回归分布滞后模型证实,印度卢比对美元的波动对印度出口和外国直接投资流入产生了显著(负面)影响。此外,从长远来看,贸易开放度和国内生产总值在解释出口和外国直接投资流入方面是积极和重要的。根据实证结果,印度应制定适当的宏观经济政策,以减少汇率波动,使出口导向的增长战略取得成功。此外,像印度这样的新兴和进步经济体应该在不影响贸易开放水平的情况下加强和精简其国内外汇市场。更准确地说,远期外汇市场的覆盖范围应该扩大,因为从长远来看,它们可以为汇率波动提供保护(对冲)。
{"title":"Disentangling the Nexus Between Exchange Rate Volatility, Exports, and FDI: Empirical Evidence from the Indian Economy","authors":"A. Jamal, G. Bhat","doi":"10.1177/09749101221108788","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101221108788","url":null,"abstract":"The primary objective of the study was to scrutinize the effect of exchange rate volatility on foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows and Indian exports during the flexible exchange rate period. The bounds testing procedure confirmed the presence of a single (stable) long-run relationship between exports, conditional exchange rate volatility, and unconditional exchange rate volatility. The autoregressive distributed lag model verified that volatility in Indian rupee vis-à-vis USD had a significant (negative) impact on Indian exports and FDI inflows. Besides, trade openness and gross domestic product, in the long run, were positive and significant in explaining the exports and FDI inflows. Based on the empirical results, India should devise suitable macroeconomic policies to reduce exchange rate volatility to make the export-led growth strategy a success. Moreover, emerging and progressive economies like India should strengthen and streamline their domestic foreign exchange markets without compromising the level of trade openness. More precisely, the forward exchange markets’ coverage should be broadened, as they provide protection (hedging) against the exchange rate volatility in the long run.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-19","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42703979","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Dynamic Estimation of a Traditional Import Demand Function for Botswana 博茨瓦纳传统进口需求函数的动态估计
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-22 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221104226
M. Malefane
This article estimates the import demand function for Botswana, which is rated among the fastest-growing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, the study finds that Botswana’s import demand is inelastic to the changes in import prices, both in the short run and in the long run, which resembles the import demand behavior in other fast-growing economies. The inelastic response of the import demand to import price is not surprising for a country that mainly imports diamonds, fuel, and machinery, all essential items for export production and economic development. The study further confirms that structural instabilities have a significant negative impact on Botswana’s import demand, which is an element that the policymakers must pay attention to. Considering the recent developments in the African continent, which include the recent ratification of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), this study suggests that policymakers in Botswana should revisit the country’s import policy and determine how Botswana’s imports can be positioned in a way that could benefit the sought-after intra-African trade.
本文估计了博茨瓦纳的进口需求函数,博茨瓦纳被评为撒哈拉以南非洲增长最快的国家之一。利用协整的自回归分布滞后(ARDL)方法,研究发现博茨瓦纳的进口需求对进口价格的变化没有弹性,无论是在短期还是在长期,这与其他快速增长的经济体的进口需求行为相似。对于一个主要进口钻石、燃料和机械的国家来说,进口需求对进口价格的无弹性反应并不奇怪,这些都是出口生产和经济发展的必需品。研究进一步证实,结构不稳定对博茨瓦纳的进口需求有显著的负面影响,这是政策制定者必须重视的一个因素。考虑到非洲大陆最近的发展,包括最近批准的非洲大陆自由贸易区(AfCFTA),本研究建议博茨瓦纳的政策制定者应该重新审视该国的进口政策,并确定博茨瓦纳的进口如何定位,以有利于受欢迎的非洲内部贸易。
{"title":"Dynamic Estimation of a Traditional Import Demand Function for Botswana","authors":"M. Malefane","doi":"10.1177/09749101221104226","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101221104226","url":null,"abstract":"This article estimates the import demand function for Botswana, which is rated among the fastest-growing countries in Sub-Saharan Africa. Using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach to cointegration, the study finds that Botswana’s import demand is inelastic to the changes in import prices, both in the short run and in the long run, which resembles the import demand behavior in other fast-growing economies. The inelastic response of the import demand to import price is not surprising for a country that mainly imports diamonds, fuel, and machinery, all essential items for export production and economic development. The study further confirms that structural instabilities have a significant negative impact on Botswana’s import demand, which is an element that the policymakers must pay attention to. Considering the recent developments in the African continent, which include the recent ratification of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), this study suggests that policymakers in Botswana should revisit the country’s import policy and determine how Botswana’s imports can be positioned in a way that could benefit the sought-after intra-African trade.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48241009","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Explaining Customs Tax Evasion in Ethiopia: The Effect of Trade Tax, Law Enforcement, and Product Characteristics 解释埃塞俄比亚的海关逃税:贸易税、执法和产品特性的影响
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-06-21 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221100637
T. Tadesse
Low-income African countries face significant customs tax evasion due to undervaluation and smuggling of imports by registered traders. This study uses trade policy, law enforcement, product misclassification, and product differentiation to examine customs tax evasion in Ethiopian imports from Kenya. Using “missing imports” data disaggregated at the harmonized system 6-digit level, the econometric model employs the trade gap as a measure of evasion. This study seeks to explain two types of evasion: undervaluation-based evasion, and smuggling- and product misclassification–based evasion. According to the econometric estimates, 1% increase in the taxes imposed on imports increases evasion by 1.12% for undervaluation-based evasion and 2% for entirely “missing imports”. Based on a quantitative measure of law enforcement, the findings show that expecting higher fee as a penalty for tax evasion is negatively associated with both forms of evasions. Regarding the extent of evasion, customs tax evasion is significantly higher for differentiated items than for homogeneous goods. Furthermore, mislabeling products from higher to lower tariff categories explains a large portion of evasion in goods that are either entirely smuggled or misclassified. The findings validate the importance of reducing evasion by judiciously lowering tariffs and enforcing the law at the border.
由于注册贸易商低估和走私进口商品,低收入非洲国家面临严重的海关逃税问题。本研究利用贸易政策、执法、产品错误分类和产品差异来检验埃塞俄比亚从肯尼亚进口的海关逃税行为。计量经济模型使用统一系统6位数分类的“缺失进口”数据,将贸易差距作为衡量逃税的指标。本研究试图解释两种类型的逃避:基于低估值的逃避和基于走私和产品错误分类的逃避。根据计量经济学估计,对进口征收1%的税会使基于低估值的逃税行为增加1.12%,而完全“缺失进口”的逃税行为则增加2%。基于执法的定量衡量,研究结果表明,期望更高的费用作为对逃税的惩罚与这两种形式的逃税都呈负相关。就逃税程度而言,差异化商品的海关逃税率明显高于同质商品。此外,从高关税类别到低关税类别的产品标签错误,在很大程度上解释了完全走私或分类错误的货物中的逃税行为。调查结果证实了通过明智地降低关税和在边境执法来减少逃税的重要性。
{"title":"Explaining Customs Tax Evasion in Ethiopia: The Effect of Trade Tax, Law Enforcement, and Product Characteristics","authors":"T. Tadesse","doi":"10.1177/09749101221100637","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101221100637","url":null,"abstract":"Low-income African countries face significant customs tax evasion due to undervaluation and smuggling of imports by registered traders. This study uses trade policy, law enforcement, product misclassification, and product differentiation to examine customs tax evasion in Ethiopian imports from Kenya. Using “missing imports” data disaggregated at the harmonized system 6-digit level, the econometric model employs the trade gap as a measure of evasion. This study seeks to explain two types of evasion: undervaluation-based evasion, and smuggling- and product misclassification–based evasion. According to the econometric estimates, 1% increase in the taxes imposed on imports increases evasion by 1.12% for undervaluation-based evasion and 2% for entirely “missing imports”. Based on a quantitative measure of law enforcement, the findings show that expecting higher fee as a penalty for tax evasion is negatively associated with both forms of evasions. Regarding the extent of evasion, customs tax evasion is significantly higher for differentiated items than for homogeneous goods. Furthermore, mislabeling products from higher to lower tariff categories explains a large portion of evasion in goods that are either entirely smuggled or misclassified. The findings validate the importance of reducing evasion by judiciously lowering tariffs and enforcing the law at the border.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41860323","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Russia, India, and China: Cooperation and New Role in the Development of International Relations 俄罗斯、印度和中国:国际关系发展中的合作与新角色
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-03-17 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221082723
S. Y. Glazev, V. Arkhipova
The research explores the fundamental structural changes in the world economy resulting from the shifting of technological mode (TM) and world economic mode (WEM). Based on the theory of long cycles in economic development, we defined practical reasons for current escalation of international tension and substantiate the hypothesis of world economic center moving to Asia. The article reflects on new WEM image with mixed economy combining strategic planning and market competition mechanisms, state control over monetary system, private entrepreneurship following public interests while regulating capital accumulation processes and creative self-realization freedom for all. The research proves the inevitability of the world financial and economic system restructuring on the ground of international law restoration with respect to national sovereignty, paying special attention to the extension of contractual legal relations in issuance of world currencies and regulating circulation, capital market regulation, information technologies, and international media space. We present ideas for creating a broad coalition of the Eurasian countries to speed up transition to a new WEM and thus prevent a world war. The leading role of India, Russia and China in this process is of special interest. Focusing on comparative analysis of current American-centric order and new emerging WEM, we predict the end of liberal globalization and strengthening of interstate cooperation. The article substantiates the hypothesis that global economic development in the twenty-first century will be determined by peaceful and constructive competition between two political systems of the new WEM: Indian and Chinese.
本研究探讨了技术模式(TM)和世界经济模式(WEM)的转变所导致的世界经济的根本性结构性变化。基于经济发展的长周期理论,界定了当前国际紧张局势升级的现实原因,并对世界经济中心向亚洲转移的假设进行了实证。本文反思了战略计划与市场竞争机制相结合的混合经济、国家对货币体系的控制、遵循公共利益同时调节资本积累过程的私人企业家精神和所有人创造性自我实现的自由的新WEM形象。研究在国家主权的国际法恢复基础上,论证了世界金融经济体系重构的必然性,并特别关注了世界货币发行与流通规范、资本市场监管、信息技术、国际媒体空间等方面契约法律关系的延伸。我们提出了建立欧亚国家广泛联盟的想法,以加速向新的世界货币基金组织的过渡,从而防止世界大战。印度、俄罗斯和中国在这一进程中的主导作用令人特别感兴趣。通过对当前以美国为中心的秩序和新兴的世界经济机制的比较分析,我们预测自由全球化的终结和国家间合作的加强。这篇文章证实了这样一个假设,即21世纪的全球经济发展将由新世界经济论坛的两个政治体系——印度和中国——之间的和平与建设性竞争决定。
{"title":"Russia, India, and China: Cooperation and New Role in the Development of International Relations","authors":"S. Y. Glazev, V. Arkhipova","doi":"10.1177/09749101221082723","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101221082723","url":null,"abstract":"The research explores the fundamental structural changes in the world economy resulting from the shifting of technological mode (TM) and world economic mode (WEM). Based on the theory of long cycles in economic development, we defined practical reasons for current escalation of international tension and substantiate the hypothesis of world economic center moving to Asia. The article reflects on new WEM image with mixed economy combining strategic planning and market competition mechanisms, state control over monetary system, private entrepreneurship following public interests while regulating capital accumulation processes and creative self-realization freedom for all. The research proves the inevitability of the world financial and economic system restructuring on the ground of international law restoration with respect to national sovereignty, paying special attention to the extension of contractual legal relations in issuance of world currencies and regulating circulation, capital market regulation, information technologies, and international media space. We present ideas for creating a broad coalition of the Eurasian countries to speed up transition to a new WEM and thus prevent a world war. The leading role of India, Russia and China in this process is of special interest. Focusing on comparative analysis of current American-centric order and new emerging WEM, we predict the end of liberal globalization and strengthening of interstate cooperation. The article substantiates the hypothesis that global economic development in the twenty-first century will be determined by peaceful and constructive competition between two political systems of the new WEM: Indian and Chinese.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"65375508","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
Heterogeneity Effect of Central Bank Independence on Inflation in Developing Countries 发展中国家中央银行独立性对通货膨胀的异质性效应
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-03-17 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221082049
C. J. Anwar
This research investigates the relationship between central bank independence and inflation for 37 developing countries during the period from 1972 to 2019. Given that most developing countries experienced high inflation, many opted for central bank independence to enhance their focus on inflation. Central bank independence reforms were anticipated to create a higher level of independence, which would result in a low inflation rate. We employed pooled least square with the assumption of homogeneity of co-efficients; the result showed no significant relationship between central bank independence and inflation. We checked the homogeneity assumption of the panel by applying Chow and Roy–Zellner tests; results showed that the model was not homogeneous. Furthermore, we performed the panel heterogeneity model with the pooled mean group estimator which indicated that a reverse relationship exists between central bank independence and inflation. This finding is robust as we split the sample into two groups: moderate and high inflation countries; the negative relationship between those variables still exists.
本研究调查了1972年至2019年期间37个发展中国家央行独立性与通货膨胀之间的关系。鉴于大多数发展中国家都经历了高通胀,许多国家选择了央行独立性,以加强对通胀的关注。预计中央银行的独立性改革将创造更高水平的独立性,从而降低通货膨胀率。我们采用了集合最小二乘法,并假设了系数的齐性;结果表明,央行独立性与通货膨胀之间没有显著关系。我们通过应用Chow和Roy–Zellner检验来检验面板的同质性假设;结果表明,该模型是不均匀的。此外,我们使用集合均值组估计量进行了面板异质性模型,这表明央行独立性与通货膨胀之间存在反向关系。当我们将样本分为两组时,这一发现是有力的:中等和高通胀国家;这些变量之间的负相关关系仍然存在。
{"title":"Heterogeneity Effect of Central Bank Independence on Inflation in Developing Countries","authors":"C. J. Anwar","doi":"10.1177/09749101221082049","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101221082049","url":null,"abstract":"This research investigates the relationship between central bank independence and inflation for 37 developing countries during the period from 1972 to 2019. Given that most developing countries experienced high inflation, many opted for central bank independence to enhance their focus on inflation. Central bank independence reforms were anticipated to create a higher level of independence, which would result in a low inflation rate. We employed pooled least square with the assumption of homogeneity of co-efficients; the result showed no significant relationship between central bank independence and inflation. We checked the homogeneity assumption of the panel by applying Chow and Roy–Zellner tests; results showed that the model was not homogeneous. Furthermore, we performed the panel heterogeneity model with the pooled mean group estimator which indicated that a reverse relationship exists between central bank independence and inflation. This finding is robust as we split the sample into two groups: moderate and high inflation countries; the negative relationship between those variables still exists.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44147956","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 8
The Volatility Lowering Effects of Capital Controls 资本管制的波动性降低效应
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-03-11 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221081940
Chokri Zehri
The evidence that capital controls adversely affect cross-border trade is debatable. This study shows that capital controls may support international trade by mitigating the negative effect of macroeconomic volatility. We use quarterly data from a sample of 25 emerging countries over the period 2011–2019. Using long- and short-standing capital control dynamic panel models, and diversifying robust estimation techniques, our results show that capital controls alleviate the adverse effects of the exchange rate, interest rate differential, and inflation volatilities. The long-lasting capital controls (walls) are more effective than short-lasting capital controls (gates). Besides, the effects of these controls are asymmetric regarding the financial development level and category of flows. The study highlights the beneficial role of macroprudential policy in supporting capital control actions. The results of this study have two main policy implications, the effectiveness of “walls” controls and the importance of macroeconomic policy coordination.
资本管制对跨境贸易产生不利影响的证据值得商榷。本研究表明,资本管制可以通过减轻宏观经济波动的负面影响来支持国际贸易。我们使用了2011-2019年期间25个新兴国家的季度数据样本。利用长期和短期资本管制动态面板模型,以及多样化的稳健估计技术,我们的研究结果表明,资本管制缓解了汇率、利率差和通货膨胀波动的不利影响。长期的资本管制(墙)比短期的资本管制(门)更有效。此外,这些管制的效果在金融发展水平和流动类别方面是不对称的。该研究强调了宏观审慎政策在支持资本管制行动方面的有益作用。本研究的结果有两个主要的政策含义,即“墙”控制的有效性和宏观经济政策协调的重要性。
{"title":"The Volatility Lowering Effects of Capital Controls","authors":"Chokri Zehri","doi":"10.1177/09749101221081940","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101221081940","url":null,"abstract":"The evidence that capital controls adversely affect cross-border trade is debatable. This study shows that capital controls may support international trade by mitigating the negative effect of macroeconomic volatility. We use quarterly data from a sample of 25 emerging countries over the period 2011–2019. Using long- and short-standing capital control dynamic panel models, and diversifying robust estimation techniques, our results show that capital controls alleviate the adverse effects of the exchange rate, interest rate differential, and inflation volatilities. The long-lasting capital controls (walls) are more effective than short-lasting capital controls (gates). Besides, the effects of these controls are asymmetric regarding the financial development level and category of flows. The study highlights the beneficial role of macroprudential policy in supporting capital control actions. The results of this study have two main policy implications, the effectiveness of “walls” controls and the importance of macroeconomic policy coordination.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42429433","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Exchange Rate and Stock Markets During Trade Conflicts in the USA, China, and India 美、中、印贸易冲突中的汇率与股市
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-03-11 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221082724
Deepika Krishnan, Vishal Dagar
During trade tussles, most of the stock exchanges are impacted, both directly and indirectly, thereby influencing the exchange rates of the countries. This article gives a comprehensive insight into the effects of exchange rate on the USA, China, and Indian stock market, that is, the Dow Jones industrial average index (DJI), Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) composite index, and Nifty50 index during trade conflicts. Trade conflicts here talk about the recent trade war between the USA and China, which was invariably fallen in line with the outbreak of COVID-19. Sample of this study comprises the daily closing price from different indices and exchange rate values US dollar, yuan, and rupee. This article uses ordinary least square (OLS) model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to analyze the volatility and influence of exchange rate over the stock market. Results from OLS model indicated that the fluctuations in exchange rate have minimum impact on the daily closing price of stock indices, that is, DJI, SSE, and Nifty50 in the USA, China, and India, respectively, however, exchange rate impacts volume of shares traded in all three stock exchanges. The GARCH model implies that the conditional variance is less volatile for Nifty volume, but highly volatile for SSE and DJI stock volumes traded. The findings of the study provide insights to the domestic and foreign investors regarding their investment in the stock market during trade conflicts and mostly during COVID-19 situation.
在贸易斗争中,大多数证券交易所都会受到直接或间接的影响,从而影响各国的汇率。本文全面分析了贸易冲突期间汇率对美国、中国和印度股市的影响,即道琼斯工业平均指数(DJI)、上海证券交易所(SSE)综合指数和Nifty50指数。这里的贸易冲突指的是最近中美之间的贸易战,这场贸易战总是与新冠肺炎疫情的爆发相一致。本研究的样本包括不同指数的每日收盘价以及美元、人民币和卢比的汇率值。本文采用普通最小二乘(OLS)模型和广义自回归条件异方差(GARCH)模型来分析汇率波动及其对股票市场的影响。OLS模型结果表明,汇率波动对美国、中国和印度的股指(DJI、SSE和Nifty50)的日收盘价影响最小,但汇率对三家交易所的股票交易量均有影响。GARCH模型表明,条件方差对Nifty交易量的波动性较小,但对SSE和DJI交易量的波动性很大。该研究结果为国内外投资者在贸易冲突和新冠疫情期间的股市投资提供了见解。
{"title":"Exchange Rate and Stock Markets During Trade Conflicts in the USA, China, and India","authors":"Deepika Krishnan, Vishal Dagar","doi":"10.1177/09749101221082724","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101221082724","url":null,"abstract":"During trade tussles, most of the stock exchanges are impacted, both directly and indirectly, thereby influencing the exchange rates of the countries. This article gives a comprehensive insight into the effects of exchange rate on the USA, China, and Indian stock market, that is, the Dow Jones industrial average index (DJI), Shanghai Stock Exchange (SSE) composite index, and Nifty50 index during trade conflicts. Trade conflicts here talk about the recent trade war between the USA and China, which was invariably fallen in line with the outbreak of COVID-19. Sample of this study comprises the daily closing price from different indices and exchange rate values US dollar, yuan, and rupee. This article uses ordinary least square (OLS) model and generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model to analyze the volatility and influence of exchange rate over the stock market. Results from OLS model indicated that the fluctuations in exchange rate have minimum impact on the daily closing price of stock indices, that is, DJI, SSE, and Nifty50 in the USA, China, and India, respectively, however, exchange rate impacts volume of shares traded in all three stock exchanges. The GARCH model implies that the conditional variance is less volatile for Nifty volume, but highly volatile for SSE and DJI stock volumes traded. The findings of the study provide insights to the domestic and foreign investors regarding their investment in the stock market during trade conflicts and mostly during COVID-19 situation.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-11","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44088019","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 2
The Impacts of International Reserves on Monetary Independence in Emerging Countries: An Asymmetric Analysis 国际储备对新兴国家货币独立性的影响:非对称分析
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-31 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211073933
C. Law
The level of international reserves could influence the monetary independence of a country. Nonetheless, this relationship is usually estimated in a single structural equation. This article examines the dynamics from a shock in a partial sum of negative and positive changes in the international reserves on monetary independence in 17 emerging countries from 1991 to 2015 by applying the panel vector regressive estimation. The Granger causality analysis indicates that a decline in the international reserve has a unidirectional impact on monetary independence. The impulse response analysis shows that the monetary independence moves in the same direction immediately after a change in the international reserves. The impact reverses a year later before returning to its initial trend. Besides, the negative partial sum of international reserves has a more lingering effect on monetary independence. Otherwise, the variance decomposition analysis suggests that the monetary independence movement is partially explained by the shock in international reserves, albeit the magnitude is relatively small. The outputs imply that sterilization has played a critical role in moderating the negative effect of raising international reserves on monetary independence. In sum, hoarding of international reserves needs to be complemented with effective sterilization.
国际储备水平可能影响一个国家的货币独立性。尽管如此,这种关系通常是在一个单一的结构方程中估计的。本文通过应用面板向量回归估计,研究了1991-2015年17个新兴国家国际储备对货币独立性的正负变化的部分和冲击的动态。格兰杰因果关系分析表明,国际储备的下降对货币独立性有单向影响。脉冲响应分析表明,国际储备发生变化后,货币独立性立即朝着相同的方向发展。一年后,这种影响逆转,然后又回到了最初的趋势。此外,国际储备的负部分总和对货币独立性的影响更为持久。否则,方差分解分析表明,货币独立运动的部分原因是国际储备的冲击,尽管其幅度相对较小。产出表明,冲销在缓和增加国际储备对货币独立性的负面影响方面发挥了关键作用。总之,囤积国际储备需要辅之以有效的绝育。
{"title":"The Impacts of International Reserves on Monetary Independence in Emerging Countries: An Asymmetric Analysis","authors":"C. Law","doi":"10.1177/09749101211073933","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101211073933","url":null,"abstract":"The level of international reserves could influence the monetary independence of a country. Nonetheless, this relationship is usually estimated in a single structural equation. This article examines the dynamics from a shock in a partial sum of negative and positive changes in the international reserves on monetary independence in 17 emerging countries from 1991 to 2015 by applying the panel vector regressive estimation. The Granger causality analysis indicates that a decline in the international reserve has a unidirectional impact on monetary independence. The impulse response analysis shows that the monetary independence moves in the same direction immediately after a change in the international reserves. The impact reverses a year later before returning to its initial trend. Besides, the negative partial sum of international reserves has a more lingering effect on monetary independence. Otherwise, the variance decomposition analysis suggests that the monetary independence movement is partially explained by the shock in international reserves, albeit the magnitude is relatively small. The outputs imply that sterilization has played a critical role in moderating the negative effect of raising international reserves on monetary independence. In sum, hoarding of international reserves needs to be complemented with effective sterilization.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-31","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42577800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Is the Impact of COVID-19 Significant in Determining Equity Market Integration? Insights from BRICS Economies COVID-19对股票市场整合的影响是否显著?金砖国家经济的启示
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2022-01-21 DOI: 10.1177/09749101211070960
P. Mishra, S. Mishra
This article examined the impact of the unanticipated outbreak of global public health crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, on the equity market performances and on the degree of integration of these markets in BRICS bloc. The empirical analyses lend support to the weakened equity market integration in the BRICS economies amid the pandemic, and the key driving forces include the rate of inflation, the real rate of interest, real exchange rate and composite leading indicator in the long-run, and trade performance and composite leading indicator in the short-run. The implications on the one hand, indicate increased opportunities for international portfolio diversification, and on the other hand, suggest for controlling the macroeconomic uncertainties of inflation, interest rate and exchange rate fluctuations during global health crisis to promote stable economic conditions for ensuring equity market integration in the long-run.
本文研究了突发的全球公共卫生危机新冠肺炎疫情对金砖国家集团股票市场表现和这些市场一体化程度的影响。实证分析支持了疫情期间金砖国家经济体股票市场一体化的减弱,关键驱动力包括通货膨胀率、实际利率、实际汇率和长期综合领先指标,以及贸易表现和短期综合领先指标。这些影响一方面表明国际投资组合多样化的机会增加,另一方面表明,在全球健康危机期间,控制通货膨胀、利率和汇率波动的宏观经济不确定性,以促进稳定的经济条件,确保股票市场长期一体化。
{"title":"Is the Impact of COVID-19 Significant in Determining Equity Market Integration? Insights from BRICS Economies","authors":"P. Mishra, S. Mishra","doi":"10.1177/09749101211070960","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1177/09749101211070960","url":null,"abstract":"This article examined the impact of the unanticipated outbreak of global public health crisis, COVID-19 pandemic, on the equity market performances and on the degree of integration of these markets in BRICS bloc. The empirical analyses lend support to the weakened equity market integration in the BRICS economies amid the pandemic, and the key driving forces include the rate of inflation, the real rate of interest, real exchange rate and composite leading indicator in the long-run, and trade performance and composite leading indicator in the short-run. The implications on the one hand, indicate increased opportunities for international portfolio diversification, and on the other hand, suggest for controlling the macroeconomic uncertainties of inflation, interest rate and exchange rate fluctuations during global health crisis to promote stable economic conditions for ensuring equity market integration in the long-run.","PeriodicalId":37512,"journal":{"name":"Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies","volume":null,"pages":null},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-01-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44054591","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 3
期刊
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies
全部 Acc. Chem. Res. ACS Applied Bio Materials ACS Appl. Electron. Mater. ACS Appl. Energy Mater. ACS Appl. Mater. Interfaces ACS Appl. Nano Mater. ACS Appl. Polym. Mater. ACS BIOMATER-SCI ENG ACS Catal. ACS Cent. Sci. ACS Chem. Biol. ACS Chemical Health & Safety ACS Chem. Neurosci. ACS Comb. Sci. ACS Earth Space Chem. ACS Energy Lett. ACS Infect. Dis. ACS Macro Lett. ACS Mater. Lett. ACS Med. Chem. Lett. ACS Nano ACS Omega ACS Photonics ACS Sens. ACS Sustainable Chem. Eng. ACS Synth. Biol. Anal. Chem. BIOCHEMISTRY-US Bioconjugate Chem. BIOMACROMOLECULES Chem. Res. Toxicol. Chem. Rev. Chem. Mater. CRYST GROWTH DES ENERG FUEL Environ. Sci. Technol. Environ. Sci. Technol. Lett. Eur. J. Inorg. Chem. IND ENG CHEM RES Inorg. Chem. J. Agric. Food. Chem. J. Chem. Eng. Data J. Chem. Educ. J. Chem. Inf. Model. J. Chem. Theory Comput. J. Med. Chem. J. Nat. Prod. J PROTEOME RES J. Am. Chem. Soc. LANGMUIR MACROMOLECULES Mol. Pharmaceutics Nano Lett. Org. Lett. ORG PROCESS RES DEV ORGANOMETALLICS J. Org. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. J. Phys. Chem. A J. Phys. Chem. B J. Phys. Chem. C J. Phys. Chem. Lett. Analyst Anal. Methods Biomater. Sci. Catal. Sci. Technol. Chem. Commun. Chem. Soc. Rev. CHEM EDUC RES PRACT CRYSTENGCOMM Dalton Trans. Energy Environ. Sci. ENVIRON SCI-NANO ENVIRON SCI-PROC IMP ENVIRON SCI-WAT RES Faraday Discuss. Food Funct. Green Chem. Inorg. Chem. Front. Integr. Biol. J. Anal. At. Spectrom. J. Mater. Chem. A J. Mater. Chem. B J. Mater. Chem. C Lab Chip Mater. Chem. Front. Mater. Horiz. MEDCHEMCOMM Metallomics Mol. Biosyst. Mol. Syst. Des. Eng. Nanoscale Nanoscale Horiz. Nat. Prod. Rep. New J. Chem. Org. Biomol. Chem. Org. Chem. Front. PHOTOCH PHOTOBIO SCI PCCP Polym. Chem.
×
引用
GB/T 7714-2015
复制
MLA
复制
APA
复制
导出至
BibTeX EndNote RefMan NoteFirst NoteExpress
×
0
微信
客服QQ
Book学术公众号 扫码关注我们
反馈
×
意见反馈
请填写您的意见或建议
请填写您的手机或邮箱
×
提示
您的信息不完整,为了账户安全,请先补充。
现在去补充
×
提示
您因"违规操作"
具体请查看互助需知
我知道了
×
提示
现在去查看 取消
×
提示
确定
Book学术官方微信
Book学术文献互助
Book学术文献互助群
群 号:481959085
Book学术
文献互助 智能选刊 最新文献 互助须知 联系我们:info@booksci.cn
Book学术提供免费学术资源搜索服务,方便国内外学者检索中英文文献。致力于提供最便捷和优质的服务体验。
Copyright © 2023 Book学术 All rights reserved.
ghs 京公网安备 11010802042870号 京ICP备2023020795号-1