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Taming the Tides of Internal Conflicts in Sub-Saharan Africa: The Role of Political Institutions and Natural Resources 驯服撒哈拉以南非洲内部冲突的浪潮:政治制度和自然资源的作用
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-24 DOI: 10.1177/09749101231187468
Ly Slesman, Alison Kole, Rizgar Abdlkarim Abdlaziz, I. Raheem
This article examines the interaction effects of resource rents and political institutions on internal conflicts in a panel of 29 Sub-Sahara African countries from 1983 to 2018. Relying on the system generalized method of moments (SGMM) estimator that controls for instrument proliferation, we find robust evidence of the adverse interaction effects between resource rents and political institutions on internal conflicts. Comprehensive marginal effect analysis on both variables reveals the following significant findings. First, there is a (broad) U-shaped marginal effect of resource rents and political institutions. Second, when each component of resource rents was analyzed, only oil and mineral rents had a negative and statistically significant interaction effect with political institutions on internal conflicts. The U-shaped marginal effects hold only for oil rents (but become narrower), while mineral rents exhibit only an L-shaped marginal effect at low levels of political institutions. Our findings are robust to a broad set of alternative measures of political institutions and alternative specifications of the interaction term.
本文考察了资源租金和政治制度对撒哈拉以南非洲29个国家1983年至2018年内部冲突的相互作用效应。依靠控制工具扩散的系统广义矩量方法(SGMM)估计量,我们发现了资源租金和政治制度之间对内部冲突的不利相互作用的有力证据。对两个变量进行综合边际效应分析,有以下显著发现:首先,资源租金和政治制度之间存在(广泛的)u型边际效应。其次,当对资源租金的各个组成部分进行分析时,只有石油和矿产租金与政治制度对内部冲突具有负的、统计上显著的交互作用。u型边际效应只适用于石油租金(但越来越窄),而矿产租金仅在低水平政治制度下表现出l型边际效应。我们的研究结果对于政治制度和相互作用术语的替代规范的广泛的替代措施是稳健的。
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引用次数: 1
Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Brazilian E-Commerce Prices 汇率传递到巴西电子商务价格
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-08-08 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221149251
D. Amorim, Marcelo Resende
E-commerce has experienced significant growth and is becoming more relevant to economies. The exchange rate can have notable implications on e-commerce prices, and this relationship is of great interest to consumers and retailers transacting online. Brazil is prominent among other emerging countries in issues relating to e-commerce. This article analyzes the relationships between the exchange rate and e-commerce prices in Brazil. The results reveal that: (a) there is an incomplete exchange rate pass-through to Brazilian e-commerce prices; (b) there is temporal precedence of the exchange rate in relation to these prices; (c) there is the possibility of arbitraging online purchases based on exchange rate variations. This article contributes to understanding the e-commerce price behavior in an emerging country. The evidence can support buyers interested in arbitrage.
电子商务经历了显著的增长,与经济的关系越来越密切。汇率对电子商务价格有显著的影响,这种关系对在线交易的消费者和零售商非常感兴趣。在与电子商务有关的问题上,巴西在其他新兴国家中表现突出。本文分析了汇率与巴西电子商务价格之间的关系。结果表明:(a)汇率对巴西电子商务价格的传导不完全;(b)汇率相对于这些价格具有时间优先权;(c)存在基于汇率变化对在线购买进行套利的可能性。本文有助于理解新兴国家的电子商务价格行为。证据可以支持有套利兴趣的买家。
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引用次数: 0
Sectoral Employment Shares Shape Economic Complexity: Empirical Evidence from African Countries 部门就业份额塑造经济复杂性:来自非洲国家的经验证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-07-17 DOI: 10.1177/09749101231169857
Isaac Ketu, P. Ningaye
Since the physiocrats, agriculture has been seen as a panacea for economic development. However, studies suggest that manufacturing and, recently, advanced service industries are the engine of economic growth. This study analyzes how employment structure contributes to economic complexity (EC) in African countries. To achieve this objective, it uses data spanning 1996–2017 on 27 African countries and applies the ordinary least squares, fixed effects, and system generalized method of moments estimators. Results suggest that due to its inability to admit many divisions or develop production linkages, agriculture’s employment growth is negatively associated with EC. Thus, there are better fits for enhancing complex output in Africa than a more significant share of agricultural employment. On the contrary, employment growth in industry and services enhances the production of sophisticated goods. These findings are robust after several sensitivity checks. Among policy implications from these findings, agriculture should shift from subsistence to mechanized farming, allowing excess workers to reallocate to more productive sectors of industry and advanced services.
自重农主义者以来,农业一直被视为经济发展的灵丹妙药。然而,研究表明,制造业和最近的先进服务业是经济增长的引擎。本研究分析了非洲国家就业结构对经济复杂性的影响。为了实现这一目标,它使用了1996年至2017年27个非洲国家的数据,并应用了普通最小二乘、固定效应和系统广义矩估计方法。结果表明,由于农业无法接纳许多部门或发展生产联系,农业就业增长与电子商务呈负相关。因此,提高非洲的复杂产出比提高农业就业的比例更合适。相反,工业和服务业的就业增长促进了精密产品的生产。经过多次敏感性检查,这些发现是可靠的。这些发现对政策的影响之一是,农业应该从自给农业转向机械化农业,允许过剩的工人重新分配到生产率更高的工业部门和先进的服务业。
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引用次数: 2
Imports and Food Security 进口与粮食安全
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-06-06 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221146422
Y. Subramaniam, T. A. Masron, Nanthakumar Loganathan
The Food and Agriculture Organization considers imports crucial to food security (FS) based on their inclusion in the FS definition. Given the broadening of the definition of FS to more than just food availability, the real impact of imports on FS is questionable. This article analyzes the effect of imports on FS in 56 lower-middle income countries from 2011 to 2016. Adopting the generalized method of moments technique, the estimation results point to the negative effects of imports on FS. The breakdown analysis for each dimension indicates that the level of food availability tends to be higher with imports. This could be why imports are considered part of FS measurement. However, the remaining three dimensions, level of food accessibility, utilization, and stability, do against imports. This could explain why the negative impacts of imports outweigh the positive ones in the net. This study indicates that the inclusion of imports in FS can help to secure stable food supplies and meet shortfalls in local production through a better import regulation system.
粮食及农业组织根据将进口纳入粮食安全定义,认为进口对粮食安全至关重要。鉴于FS的定义不仅仅限于食品供应,进口对FS的实际影响值得怀疑。本文分析了2011-2016年56个中低收入国家进口对FS的影响。采用矩技术的广义方法,估计结果表明进口对FS的负面影响。每个维度的细分分析表明,随着进口,粮食供应水平往往更高。这可能就是为什么进口被视为FS衡量的一部分。然而,剩下的三个方面,即粮食可及性、利用率和稳定性,对进口不利。这可以解释为什么进口的负面影响超过了净进口的正面影响。这项研究表明,将进口纳入FS有助于确保稳定的粮食供应,并通过更好的进口监管系统来弥补当地生产的短缺。
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引用次数: 0
Determinants of the Export Function in Morocco: Evidence from ARDL and Dynamic ARDL Models 摩洛哥出口函数的决定因素:来自ARDL和动态ARDL模型的证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-06-06 DOI: 10.1177/09749101231161231
Fatiha El agri, M. Jerry, Ahlam Qafas, Youness Manzah
Maintaining an acceptable level of trade deficit is one of the main challenges of the trade policy in developing countries like Morocco. Therefore, studying the most influential factors of the export function is of foremost importance. In this regard, our article studies the impact of a set of supply and demand determinants on export behavior in Morocco for the period Q1-1998–Q4-2018. The study uses an ARDL bound testing approach with structural breaks, extending to a future projection using the dynamic ARDL. The results of this study show that financial development, natural resources, and foreign investment output significantly influence Morocco’s export behavior. Consequently, forging a multidimensional policy that ensures the optimal allocation of financial resources, the modernization of the agricultural and phosphate sectors, and the transfer of know-how from foreign investors are some of the structural recommendations that will allow the promotion of exports in the future.
保持可接受的贸易逆差水平是摩洛哥等发展中国家贸易政策的主要挑战之一。因此,研究影响出口功能的最主要因素至关重要。在这方面,我们的文章研究了一系列供需决定因素对摩洛哥1998年第1季度至2018年第4季度出口行为的影响。该研究使用了具有结构断裂的ARDL界限测试方法,扩展到使用动态ARDL的未来预测。研究结果表明,金融发展、自然资源和外国投资产出显著影响摩洛哥的出口行为。因此,制定一项多层面的政策,确保财政资源的最佳分配、农业和磷酸盐部门的现代化以及外国投资者的专业知识转让,是未来促进出口的一些结构性建议。
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引用次数: 0
Impacting Instruments for Export Competitiveness: Evidence from India and China in the Global Manufacturing Market 影响出口竞争力的工具:来自印度和中国在全球制造业市场的证据
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-19 DOI: 10.1177/09749101221146423
Sayed Gulzar Ganai, A. H. Mir, S. Bhat, J. A. Khan
This study attempts to find the impacting instruments of export competitiveness for India and China by utilizing the revealed comparative advantage index and panel data regression during 2001–2020. The top 10 product groups at HS two-digit level were selected for analysis in the sample economies. The results revealed that random effect analysis remained more significant than the fixed effect for these economies. The random effect analysis showed that the top positively impacting variables with a high magnitude for Chinese export competitiveness are foreign direct investment (FDI) and research and development (R&D), followed by relative export prices (REP). The wage rate is the only factor that remained negative in magnitude for China. On the other hand, India tried to absorb FDI toward making the domestic market strong along with R&D, which has significantly impacted its growing competitiveness in the global market. REP negatively impacted Indian competitiveness with a high magnitude, followed by the real effective exchange rate. China has remained entirely integrated with the international market through joint ventures and multi-national companies and has promoted its exports in an improved form in the global market as compared to India. Moreover, China remained quite active in promoting the competitiveness of its manufactured product lines through investing in R&D and gross fixed capital formation, which contributed a significant part to its export competitiveness. In contrast, such investments remained relatively unresponsive for India.
本研究试图利用2001-2020年期间揭示的比较优势指数和面板数据回归来寻找影响印度和中国出口竞争力的工具。在样本经济体中,选择HS两位数水平的前10个产品组进行分析。结果表明,对这些经济体来说,随机效应分析仍然比固定效应更显著。随机效应分析表明,对中国出口竞争力影响最大、幅度较大的变量是外国直接投资(FDI)和研发(R&D),其次是相对出口价格(REP)。工资率是唯一一个对中国来说仍然是负的因素。另一方面,印度试图吸收外国直接投资,使国内市场在研发的同时变得强大,这对其在全球市场日益增长的竞争力产生了重大影响。REP对印度竞争力的负面影响很大,其次是实际有效汇率。与印度相比,中国通过合资企业和跨国公司与国际市场保持完全一体化,并在全球市场上促进了出口。此外,中国仍然非常积极地通过投资研发和固定资本形成总额来提高其制成品生产线的竞争力,这对其出口竞争力起到了重要作用。相比之下,对印度来说,此类投资仍然相对没有反应。
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引用次数: 1
Does the Belt and Road Initiative Promote Bilateral Trade? An Empirical Analysis of China and the Belt and Road Countries “一带一路”倡议是否促进了双边贸易?中国与“一带一路”国家的实证分析
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101231167453
Shan Fan
The development of trade is an essential element of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and a significant effort by China to promote inter-regional economic development. Using Chinese trade data from 190 countries and regions worldwide from 1993 to 2021, this article quantitatively analyzes (a) if and to what extent the BRI has promoted bilateral trade development, (b) how trade with China has contributed to the country’s economic growth and (c) what commodity and regional heterogeneity exist in these effects. The empirical results show that the BRI significantly increases China’s trade with the countries of the Belt and Road Initiative and countries along the Belt and Road route and significantly increases imports and exports in all five commodity categories—primary goods, resource-intensive manufactured goods, low-tech, medium-tech, and high-tech manufactured goods. Meanwhile, the trade volume with China substantially contributes to the economic development of the trading countries. However, Asia, Europe, and Africa show different characteristics in all three aspects mentioned above. These results show that the BRI not only benefits China’s international trade but also promotes the trade development of the involved countries. It clarifies the crucial role this open, inclusive inter-regional economic cooperation plays in global trade growth when facing the escalating anti-globalization sentiment.
发展贸易是“一带一路”倡议倡议的重要组成部分,也是中国促进区域间经济发展的重要举措。本文利用1993年至2021年全球190个国家和地区的中国贸易数据,定量分析了(a)“一带一路”倡议是否以及在多大程度上促进了双边贸易发展,(b)对华贸易如何促进了该国的经济增长,以及(c)这些影响中存在哪些商品和区域异质性。实证结果表明,“一带一路”倡议显著增加了中国与“一带一路”倡议沿线国家和沿线国家的贸易,并显著增加了初级商品、资源密集型制成品、低技术、中技术和高技术制成品五大类商品的进出口。与此同时,与中国的贸易额对贸易国的经济发展做出了重大贡献。然而,亚洲、欧洲和非洲在上述三个方面都表现出不同的特点。这些结果表明,“一带一路”倡议不仅有利于中国的国际贸易,也促进了相关国家的贸易发展。它阐明了在面对不断升级的反全球化情绪时,这种开放、包容的区域间经济合作在全球贸易增长中发挥的关键作用。
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引用次数: 0
The Overall Development of the Belt and Road Countries: Measurement and Assessment 一带一路国家总体发展的测度与评价
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101231167449
Biliang Hu, Kunling Zhang
Based on a multidimensional assessment indicators system and a two-layer assessment model, this article measures and evaluates the overall development of China and the 148 countries that signed cooperation agreements with China to jointly build the Belt and Road (we refer to this group of countries as the Belt and Road Countries or simply BRCs henceforth) from 2015 to 2019 using panel normalization method. This research shows that the overall development of BRCs is generally on track, and most countries are showing an upward development trend, mainly Asian and African countries. Second, some features of the overall development of BRCs are clearly evident, such as (a) the economic development is not high enough but relatively stable; (b) the resource endowments are not excellent, but rich fossil fuels are concentrated in a few countries of BRCs; (c) the environment protection of the countries is reasonably well managed; (d) social development indicators of these countries are slightly lagging behind the world average. Third, certain challenges face this group of countries, for example, good governance, economic structural transformation, and industrialization need improvement. Finally, there is enormous potential for strengthening cooperation between BRCs, particularly in energy, manufacturing, green development, social development linking with the people’s livelihood improvement, and so on.
基于多维评价指标体系和双层评价模型,本文采用面板规范化方法,对2015年至2019年中国与148个与中国签署共建一带一路合作协议的国家(以下简称“一带一路国家”或简称“一带一路国家”)的总体发展进行了测算和评价。这项研究表明,BRC的总体发展总体上步入正轨,大多数国家都呈现出上升的发展趋势,主要是亚洲和非洲国家。第二,BRC总体发展的一些特征明显,如(a)经济发展水平不够高,但相对稳定;(b) 资源禀赋并不优秀,但丰富的化石燃料集中在BRC的少数国家;(c) 各国的环境保护管理得相当好;(d) 这些国家的社会发展指标略落后于世界平均水平。第三,这群国家面临某些挑战,例如,善政、经济结构转型和工业化需要改进。最后,BRC之间加强合作的潜力巨大,特别是在能源、制造业、绿色发展、社会发展与民生改善等方面。
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引用次数: 0
Analyzing the Influence of BRI Foreign Direct Investment on Governance: Perspective from Southeast Asian Countries 从东南亚国家看“一带一路”对外直接投资对治理的影响
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101231167450
Qian Liu, Yingying Wang, Ning Kang
Promoting international economic cooperation plays a vital role in improving global governance. International cooperation benefits participating countries economically, and positively impacts their social development and national governance. Based on the micro survey data of eight Southeast Asian countries, this article analyzes the influence mechanism of the Belt and Road outward foreign direct investment (FDI) on the governance of the host countries. The article finds that China’s outward FDI, through its positive role in the host country’s economic and social development, leads to a positive perception among people in host countries regarding China’s influence locally. On the one hand, it enhances people’s sense of identity with China’s development. On the other hand, it contributes to people’s satisfaction with their local government, thereby improving national governance. The findings of this article offer theoretical insights for promoting high-level opening-up. When participating in global governance, one must pay attention to the real sense of gain in the host countries and their people, improve the governance and promote high-quality development of regional economic cooperation.
促进国际经济合作对改善全球治理具有重要作用。国际合作在经济上有利于参与国,并对其社会发展和国家治理产生积极影响。本文基于东南亚8个国家的微观调查数据,分析了一带一路对外直接投资对东道国治理的影响机制。文章发现,中国对外直接投资通过对东道国经济社会发展的积极作用,使东道国人民对中国在当地的影响力产生了积极的看法。一方面,它增强了人们对中国发展的认同感。另一方面,它有助于提高人民对地方政府的满意度,从而改善国家治理。本文的研究成果为推动高水平对外开放提供了理论启示。在参与全球治理时,必须关注东道国及其人民的真正获得感,改善治理,促进区域经济合作高质量发展。
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引用次数: 0
Can the Belt and Road Initiative Promote the Industrialization of Developing Countries? “一带一路”倡议倡议能否促进发展中国家工业化?
Q2 Economics, Econometrics and Finance Pub Date : 2023-05-01 DOI: 10.1177/09749101231167447
Kunling Zhang
While industrialization has profound implications for human well-being, the industrialization of developing countries faces multiple challenges today. Based on the theoretical framework of development economics, this article discusses how the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as a new model of international development cooperation can complement and improve the traditional model and analyzes how the new model can promote the industrialization of developing countries. The findings show that BRI has improved the traditional international development cooperation model in terms of emphasizing investment in developing countries, infrastructure construction, the principles of achieving shared growth through consultation and collaboration, the role of the government, and systematic and open development cooperation. At the same time, the BRI can facilitate the industrialization of developing countries by improving agricultural productivity, building infrastructure, capital formation, trade promotion, rural–urban transformation, and upgrading technology and knowledge. However, the facilitation effect depends on how developing countries formulate industrialization strategies keeping in perspective their national conditions and development needs and the international economic environment.
尽管工业化对人类福祉有着深远的影响,但发展中国家的工业化今天面临着多重挑战。本文从发展经济学的理论框架出发,探讨了“一带一路”倡议倡议作为一种新型的国际发展合作模式如何对传统模式进行补充和完善,分析了新型模式如何促进发展中国家的工业化。研究结果表明,“一带一路”倡议在强调对发展中国家投资、基础设施建设、协商协作实现共同增长原则、政府作用、系统开放的发展合作等方面,改进了传统的国际发展合作模式。同时,“一带一路”倡议可以通过提高农业生产力、建设基础设施、资本形成、贸易促进、城乡转型以及技术和知识升级来促进发展中国家的工业化。然而,便利化效果取决于发展中国家如何根据本国国情和发展需要以及国际经济环境制定工业化战略。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies
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