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Market Timing and Pecking Order Theory in Latin America 拉丁美洲的市场时机与啄食顺序理论
Pub Date : 2021-08-26 DOI: 10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.3674
Francisco Javier Vásquez Tejos, Hernan Pape Larre
This article aims to determine if the capital structure of Latin American companies in the emerging markets of Brazil, Chile, Mexico, and Peru, are managed according to the market timing theory or the pecking order theory. The analysis was based on a non-probabilistic sample of 170 companies, with annual data, from an unbalanced panel, in the period 2010-2018. Regressions were applied with the fixed and random effects method. The results do not show significant evidence indicating that Latin American companies comply with the pecking order theory. Furthermore, there is also no definitive evidence that companies benefit from low share prices to issue capital or from debt issuance in the face of high stock market prices. There are signs that they follow a blend of several theories, which would indicate their characteristics in the capital structure of Latin American companies.
本文旨在确定巴西、智利、墨西哥和秘鲁等新兴市场的拉美公司的资本结构是否按照市场时机理论或啄序理论进行管理。该分析基于对170家公司的非概率样本,以及2010年至2018年期间来自不平衡面板的年度数据。采用固定效应和随机效应方法进行回归分析。研究结果并没有显示出显著的证据表明拉丁美洲公司符合啄食顺序理论。此外,也没有明确的证据表明,公司会从低股价中受益,以发行资本或在高股价时发行债券。有迹象表明,它们遵循几种理论的混合,这将表明它们在拉丁美洲公司资本结构中的特征。
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引用次数: 2
Analysis of the Brazilian tax incentives to innovation and patent data: a Principal-Agent model approach 巴西税收激励对创新和专利数据的分析:委托-代理模型方法
Pub Date : 2021-08-25 DOI: 10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.3424
Felippe Clemente, Evaldo Henrique Da Silva
We propose to evaluate Lei do Bem (law 11.196/05) for Brazilian regions (North, Northeast, Center-West, Southeast and South). This is the first study that analyzes Lei do Bem using extensive game simulations for the different regions of the country. Based on data from 2006 to 2015, we find moral hazard between government and innovative Brazilian companies, as there was no express incentive in the Lei do Bem to stimulate the industrial sector to innovate and register the innovation as a patent. Thus, policies that review the tax incentives structure contained in the Lei do Bem as well as encourage industries and companies to file patents in public patent databases may have positive effects on the Brazilian innovation system.
我们建议对巴西地区(北部、东北部、中西部、东南部和南部)的Lei do Bem(法律11.196/05)进行评估。这是第一次对《Lei do Bem》进行分析的研究,该研究对该国不同地区进行了广泛的游戏模拟。根据2006年至2015年的数据,我们发现政府与创新型巴西公司之间存在道德风险,因为Lei do Bem中没有明确的激励措施来刺激工业部门创新并将创新注册为专利。因此,审查Lei do Bem中包含的税收激励结构以及鼓励行业和公司在公共专利数据库中申请专利的政策可能对巴西的创新体系产生积极影响。
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引用次数: 0
Innovation Behavior of Salvadoran Food & Beverage Industry Firms 萨尔瓦多食品和饮料行业企业的创新行为
Pub Date : 2021-08-24 DOI: 10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.2983
Elías Humberto Peraza Castaneda, Guillermo Aleixandre Mendizábal
This paper presents a quantitative analysis of the external and internal determinants that affect the innovation dynamics of a low-tech sector in a less developed economy; the food & beverage (F&B) industry in El Salvador. The empirical framework relies on a multivariate probit analysis applied to data from El Salvador’s First National Innovation Survey 2013. The results show that R&D activities, use of industrial protection by F&B industry firms as well as relationships between firms and knowledge agents are useful for technological innovations while the qualifications of firms’ workforce and the relationships between firms and value chain agents prove useful for non-technological innovations. In addition, firms can take advantage of their size and location in the department of San Salvador to promote product innovation, whereas firms’ maturity is seen to be a disadvantage. Based on the results to emerge, the role that public science, technology and innovation (STI) policies as well as STI business strategies can play in the Salvadoran agri-food industry innovation system is seen to be huge.
本文对影响欠发达经济体低技术部门创新动态的外部和内部决定因素进行了定量分析;萨尔瓦多的食品和饮料(F&B)行业。实证框架依赖于应用于萨尔瓦多2013年第一次国家创新调查数据的多元概率分析。研究结果表明,研发活动、产业保护以及企业与知识代理人之间的关系对技术创新有促进作用,而企业劳动力素质和企业与价值链代理人之间的关系对非技术创新有促进作用。此外,企业可以利用其在圣萨尔瓦多省的规模和位置来促进产品创新,而企业的成熟度被视为一个劣势。根据即将出现的结果,公共科学、技术和创新(STI)政策以及STI商业战略可以在萨尔瓦多农业食品工业创新体系中发挥巨大的作用。
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引用次数: 0
Alcance de los créditos a tasa subsidiada para mipymes argentinas 阿根廷中小企业补贴利率信贷的范围
Pub Date : 2021-08-24 DOI: 10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.3631
Lilia Corzo, M. B. Guercio, H. Vigier
El objetivo de este trabajo es analizar el alcance de los créditos bancarios a tasa subsidiada para mipymes. Seestima un modelo Logit para examinar los determinantes de la demanda efectiva y potencial para empresas argentinas en 2017. Los principales resultados muestran que las empresas con necesidades insatisfechas de crédito bancario tradicional presentan una menor demanda efectiva y potencial. Además, se observa una relación positiva entre el tamaño de la empresa y la demanda efectiva. La demanda potencial, por suparte, es explicada por la forma jurídica, el acceso al crédito comercial, la educación del gerente y haber experimentado una pérdida de inversión por falta de crédito. Este estudio genera bases para rediseñar y mejorar el alcance de los programas de financiamiento para mipymes.
本文的目的是分析银行贷款补贴利率对中小企业的影响。我们估计了一个Logit模型,以检验2017年阿根廷企业的有效和潜在需求的决定因素。本文分析了传统银行信贷需求未得到满足的企业的有效需求和潜在需求。此外,企业规模与有效需求之间存在正相关关系。另一方面,潜在的需求可以用法律形式、获得商业信贷的机会、经理的教育以及由于缺乏信贷而遭受投资损失来解释。本研究为重新设计和改进中小微企业融资方案的范围提供了基础。
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引用次数: 1
Statistical and computational techniques for extraction of underlying systematic risk factors: a comparative study in the Mexican Stock Exchange 用于提取潜在系统性风险因素的统计和计算技术:墨西哥证券交易所的比较研究
Pub Date : 2021-08-24 DOI: 10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.v13.n2.2021.9
Rogelio Ladrón de Guevara Cortés, S. Porras, Enric Monte Moreno
This paper compares the dimension reduction or feature extraction techniques, e.g., Principal Component Analysis, Factor Analysis, Independent Component Analysis and Neural Networks Principal Component Analysis, which are used as techniques for extracting the underlying systematic risk factors driving the returns on equities of the Mexican Stock Exchange, under a statistical approach to the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. We carry out our research according to two different perspectives. First, we evaluate them from a theoretical and matrix scope, making a parallelism among their particular mixing and demixing processes, as well as the attributes of the factors extracted by each method. Secondly, we accomplish an empirical study in order to measure the level of accuracy in the reconstruction of the original variables.
本文比较了在套利定价理论的统计方法下,用于提取驱动墨西哥证券交易所股票收益的潜在系统性风险因素的降维或特征提取技术,如主成分分析、因子分析、独立成分分析和神经网络主成分分析。我们从两个不同的角度进行研究。首先,我们从理论和矩阵的范围对它们进行评估,使它们的特定混合和分离过程之间的并行性,以及每种方法提取的因素的属性。其次,我们完成了一个实证研究,以衡量在原始变量的重建精度水平。
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引用次数: 0
Revisiting inflation and growth nexus: an asymmetric cointegration based on Non-linear ARDL approach in case of Bangladesh 重新审视通货膨胀与增长的关系:以孟加拉国为例,基于非线性ARDL方法的非对称协整
Pub Date : 2021-08-24 DOI: 10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.3914
Zobayer Ahmed
Sustainable high economic growth is the major objective of a country. Whereas inflation is one of the critical factors that affect economic development. Growth-inflation nexus is one of the most controversial topics in this present world. This study re-investigates the link between inflation and the economic development of Bangladesh by employing a non-linear autoregressive distributed lagged (NARDL) approach. For this study, we use annual time series data set on the growth rate of per capita gross domestic product, and the inflation rate for the time range from 1986 to 2017. The asymmetric cointegration result based on the NARDL approach shows the confirmation of long-run integration between the GDP growth rate and inflation rate (CPI). The study finds a positive and robust nexus between growth rate and inflation rate. The relationship exists both in the long-run as well as in the short-run. The results also have statistically significant. This study further explores that there is an asymmetric relationship between the rate of inflation and the rate of economic growth. The nonlinear ARDL approach shows that the GDP growth rate responds more with an upward change in inflation than that of a downward change. Furthermore, in the short-run, the positive change in inflations has a significant and positive influence on the growth rate. Still, the influence of an adverse change in inflations has statistically insignificant. Both the policymakers of Bangladesh (Bangladesh Bank) and development partners working in the country can be benefited from these results in the context of policy implementation. This study recommends that to boosting up the economic growth in the context of Bangladesh, the inflation rate can be treated as a significant determination.
经济持续高速增长是一个国家的主要目标。而通货膨胀是影响经济发展的关键因素之一。增长与通胀的关系是当今世界最具争议的话题之一。本研究通过采用非线性自回归分布滞后(NARDL)方法重新调查通货膨胀与孟加拉国经济发展之间的联系。在本研究中,我们使用了1986年至2017年期间人均国内生产总值增长率和通货膨胀率的年度时间序列数据集。基于NARDL方法的非对称协整结果证实了GDP增长率与通货膨胀率(CPI)之间存在长期整合。研究发现,增长率和通货膨胀率之间存在着积极而有力的联系。这种关系既存在于长期,也存在于短期。结果也具有统计学意义。本研究进一步探讨了通货膨胀率与经济增长率之间存在不对称关系。非线性ARDL方法表明,GDP增长率对通胀上升的响应大于对通胀下降的响应。此外,在短期内,通货膨胀率的正变化对增长率有显著的正影响。尽管如此,通货膨胀不利变化的影响在统计上是微不足道的。在政策实施的背景下,孟加拉国的政策制定者(孟加拉国银行)和在该国工作的发展伙伴都可以从这些成果中受益。本研究认为,在促进孟加拉国经济增长的背景下,通货膨胀率可以被视为一个重要的决定因素。
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引用次数: 0
Una revisión para el Perú de la relación entre el desempleo, el subempleo y la producción 对秘鲁失业、就业不足和生产之间关系的回顾
Pub Date : 2021-08-24 DOI: 10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.3782
Enrique Samanamud Valderrama
Este artículo examina la relación entre el desempleo y la producción en el Perú entre 1970 y 2018 —denominada comúnmente como Ley de Okun—, a partir de las dos primeras versiones planteadas originalmente por Arthur Okun. Asimismo, se plantea una nueva formulación econométrica que agrega al desempleo el subempleo como variable dependiente, buscando una aproximación a los elevados niveles deempleo precario característicos de economías en desarrollo, que sirven de vía de escape a la población y evitan mayores niveles de desempleo. Finalmente, a los modelos se incorporan variables adicionales al producto que permitan un mejor ajuste. Los resultados evidencian inferiores niveles del coeficiente en comparación con los estimados originalmente para la economía de Estados Unidos y de similares trabajosefectuados para las economías desarrolladas por diversos autores, lo que implica mayores niveles de producto para reducir el desempleo. Además, la reformulación agregada de desempleo con subempleo ayuda a explicar mejor las necesidades de crecimiento de la economía peruana.
本文以Arthur Okun最初提出的前两个版本为基础,考察了1970年至2018年秘鲁失业和生产之间的关系——通常被称为Okun定律。本文提出了一种新的计量经济学公式,将失业作为一个因变量,以接近发展中经济体的高不稳定就业水平,这是人口的逃生途径,避免了更高的失业率。最后,在模型中加入额外的变量,以实现更好的拟合。结果表明,与最初对美国经济的估计和不同作者对发达经济体的类似研究相比,这一系数水平较低,这意味着更高的产出水平可以降低失业率。此外,失业和就业不足的总体重新表述有助于更好地解释秘鲁经济的增长需求。
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引用次数: 0
Implicancias de la inclusión financiera y el empleo informal en la pobreza monetaria de los departamentos del Perú 普惠金融和非正规就业对秘鲁各部门货币贫困的影响
Pub Date : 2021-08-24 DOI: 10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.3743
Pedro Grados Smith
A pesar de un crecimiento sostenido del PBI del Perú en los últimos veinte años, la pobreza monetaria aún es el principal problema económico y social. Este fenómeno se extiende a dos factores importantes: la inclusión financiera y el empleo informal, que tienen implicancias en la sostenibilidad de los mecanismos impulsores del crecimiento económico para aliviar la pobreza. Utilizando el modelo econométrico de mínimos cuadrados generalizados factibles (FGLS) con efectos fijos (FEGLS), a fin de controlar los efectos heterogéneos entre los departamentos del Perú durante el periodo 2010-2019, este documento evalúa empíricamente el impacto de la inclusión financiera y el empleo informal en la pobreza monetaria. Los resultados empíricos muestran que la expansión de la inclusión financiera beneficiaría a la reducción de la pobreza monetaria, en tanto con respecto al empleo informal se revela que existe una relación negativa: se determina que su desarrollo está asociado con la reducción de la pobreza, pero no es determinante para su alivio.
尽管秘鲁的gdp在过去20年里持续增长,但货币贫困仍然是主要的经济和社会问题。这一现象延伸到两个重要因素:普惠金融和非正规就业,这对推动经济增长以减轻贫困的机制的可持续性有影响。本文采用具有固定效应的可行广义最小二值(FGLS)计量经济学模型,以控制2010-2019年秘鲁各部门之间的异质性效应,实证评估了普惠金融和非正规就业对货币贫困的影响。实验结果表明扩大有利于减贫货币金融包容,而关于非正规就业调查显示有消极的态度:有人认为,中国的发展与减少贫穷,但并不是决定性的一种解脱。
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引用次数: 2
Statistical and computational techniques for extraction of underlying systematic risk factors: a comparative in the Mexican stock exchange 用于提取潜在系统风险因素的统计和计算技术:墨西哥证券交易所的比较
Pub Date : 2021-08-24 DOI: 10.14718/revfinanzpolitecon.3740
Rogelio, Salvador Torra Porras, Enric Monte Moreno
This paper compares the dimension reduction or feature extraction techniques, e.g., Principal Component Analysis, Factor Analysis, Independent Component Analysis and Neural Networks Principal Component Analysis, which are used as techniques for extracting the underlying systematic risk factors driving the returns on equities of the Mexican Stock Exchange, under a statistical approach to the Arbitrage Pricing Theory. We carry out our research according to two different perspectives. First, we evaluate them from a theoretical and matrix scope, making a parallelism among their particular mixing and demixing processes, as well as the attributes of the factors extracted by each method. Secondly, we accomplish an empirical study in order to measure the level of accuracy in the reconstruction of the original variables.
本文比较了在套利定价理论的统计方法下,用于提取驱动墨西哥证券交易所股票收益的潜在系统性风险因素的降维或特征提取技术,如主成分分析、因子分析、独立成分分析和神经网络主成分分析。我们从两个不同的角度进行研究。首先,我们从理论和矩阵的范围对它们进行评估,使它们的特定混合和分离过程之间的并行性,以及每种方法提取的因素的属性。其次,我们完成了一个实证研究,以衡量在原始变量的重建精度水平。
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引用次数: 0
Las políticas de integridad corporativa como política económica en la OCDE 作为经合组织经济政策的企业诚信政策
Pub Date : 2021-03-17 DOI: 10.14718/REVFINANZPOLITECON.V13.N1.2021.7
Juan Ignacio Leo-Castela, José Ignacio Sánchez-Macías
In the 20th century, traditional economic doctrine was focused on studying from different perspectives, the relationship between corruption (and related economic crimes) and growth and economic development. However, new OECD policies and recommendations clearly support a greater role of institutional factors in the prevention of social harm inherent in corruption offenses. Using an econometric analysis methodology (probit regression model) and a complete-linkage clustering approach, this paper shows the growing importance of corporate compliance in the OECD, especially, since the legal regulation of the liability of legal persons and the appointment of a compliance officer. Our research results suggest that this integrity policy underwent a geographical expansion from the Anglo-Saxon countries to the rest of the OECD member countries; additionally, institutional and historical aspects are regaining importance in the functioning of the world economy as a lever of change for corporate integrity.
在20世纪,传统的经济学说侧重于从不同的角度研究腐败(以及相关的经济犯罪)与经济增长和经济发展之间的关系。然而,经合发组织的新政策和建议明确支持体制因素在预防腐败犯罪所固有的社会危害方面发挥更大作用。本文采用计量经济学分析方法(probit回归模型)和完全联系聚类方法,显示了经合组织中公司合规日益增长的重要性,特别是自从法人责任的法律规定和合规官员的任命以来。我们的研究结果表明,这种诚信政策经历了从盎格鲁-撒克逊国家到经合组织其他成员国的地理扩张;此外,在世界经济的运作中,体制和历史方面作为促进企业诚信的变革杠杆正在重新发挥重要作用。
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引用次数: 2
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Revista Finanzas y Política Económica
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