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Estonian Energy Roadmap to carbon neutrality 爱沙尼亚碳中和能源路线图
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.54337/ijsepm.7568
A. Volkova, Einari Kisel, Olavi Grünvald, Andres Veske, Sreenath Sukumaran, J. Purga
The aim of this study is to demonstrante Estonian Energy Roadmap 2040 modelling process, taking into account energy consumption in accordance with the expectation and improvement of the living standard. In the frame of this study the evaluation of the possibility for Estonian Energy sector to become carbon neutral by 2040 have been presented.  The roadmap to climate neutrality models three sectors: electricity, heating / cooling and transport together, aiming at reducing overall energy consumption, sustainability, security of national supply and the implementation of balanced economic principles. Balanced economic principles in this case mean high resource efficiency and reduced ammount of subsidies. Results of modelling show dnergy demand, energy mix and carbon emissions for these sectors in 2030 and 2040 and are compared with these indicators in 2021.The study estimates the amount of investment required to achieve carbon neutrality of Estonian energy sector. In assessing the future economy, the total environmental impact of activities, the preservation of the well-being of the Estonian population and economic reasonableness are examined in parallel with traditional economic indicators.
本研究的目的是展示爱沙尼亚能源路线图2040建模过程,考虑到能源消耗符合预期和生活水平的提高。在本研究的框架内,对爱沙尼亚能源部门到2040年实现碳中和的可能性进行了评估。气候中和路线图对三个部门进行了建模:电力、供暖/制冷和运输,旨在降低总体能源消耗、可持续性、国家供应安全以及实施平衡的经济原则。在这种情况下,平衡的经济原则意味着高资源效率和减少补贴。建模结果显示了2030年和2040年这些部门的能源需求、能源结构和碳排放,并与2021年的这些指标进行了比较。该研究估计了实现爱沙尼亚能源部门碳中和所需的投资金额。在评估未来经济时,活动对环境的总影响、维护爱沙尼亚人民的福利和经济合理性都与传统的经济指标同时进行审查。
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引用次数: 1
Climate change perception, behaviour, and willingness to purchase alternative fuel vehicles: the missing dots 气候变化的认知、行为和购买替代燃料汽车的意愿:缺失的点
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.54337/ijsepm.7416
Ana Paula Jesus, M. Ferreira Dias, M. Coelho
This paper explores the correlation between respondents concerns regarding climate change, their eagerness to adopt an AFV and their responsiveness to incentives. Seen as the solution for a cleaner mobility and greenhouse gas reduction in urban areas globally, alternative fuel vehicles (AFV) still own a modest market share in Europe. Among many reasons, the purchase price seems to be one of the most challenging to overcome. Incentives are considered a solution to mitigate the price barrier. The results of a survey carried out by the authors to 444 respondents led the authors to conclude that participants agree that AFVs contribute to tackle climate change. They also deduced that the vehicles price represents an offside for the lower-income households. Furthermore, the study revealed that the latter are less prone to buy an alternative fuel vehicle than higher-income families (59% against 80%). The authors also inferred that generally, households are more receptive to incentives or benefits based on up-front discounts or exemptions, directly impacting price and immediate savings, such as taxes exemption (value added tax and circulation tax), fuel discounts and purchase incentives. However, some differences were observed between income segments. For instance, the reduction or exemption of loan interests is among the most popular incentives for lower revenues, whilst higher revenues favour scrappage and non-financial incentives. Finally, in line with other studies, as upper incomes are less dependent on incentives and benefits to carry out the purchase, the authors put forward a differential and progressive approach for incentive instruments targeting lower revenues, allowing broader and equitable access to low carbon technology.
本文探讨了受访者对气候变化的担忧、他们采用AFV的渴望以及他们对激励措施的反应之间的相关性。替代燃料汽车(AFV)被视为全球城市地区清洁出行和减少温室气体的解决方案,在欧洲仍占有适度的市场份额。在众多原因中,购买价格似乎是最难克服的问题之一。激励措施被认为是缓解价格壁垒的一种解决方案。作者对444名受访者进行的一项调查结果使作者得出结论,参与者一致认为AFV有助于应对气候变化。他们还推断,汽车价格对低收入家庭来说是越位的。此外,研究显示,与高收入家庭(59%对80%)相比,后者更不倾向于购买替代燃料汽车。作者还推断,一般来说,家庭更容易接受基于前期折扣或豁免的激励或福利,直接影响价格和即时储蓄,如免税(增值税和流通税)、燃料折扣和购买激励。然而,收入部门之间也存在一些差异。例如,降低或免除贷款利息是收入较低的最受欢迎的激励措施之一,而收入较高则有利于报废和非金融激励措施。最后,与其他研究一致,由于高收入者较少依赖激励和福利来进行购买,作者提出了一种针对低收入的激励工具的差异和渐进方法,允许更广泛、公平地获得低碳技术。
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引用次数: 0
High-resolution, spatial thermal energy demand analysis and workflow for a city district 城市区域高分辨率空间热能需求分析及工作流程
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.54337/ijsepm.7570
H. Edtmayer, Lisa-Marie Fochler, T. Mach, Jennifer Fauster, E. Schwab, C. Hochenauer
Knowledge about the demand of renewable thermal energy is essential for the integrated planning of sustainable cities. Planners and decision-makers need high-quality and comprehensive data for rapid and decisive action. However, little to no corresponding information is available for the status quo or possible development scenarios. Thus, new methods for urban building energy modelling and simulation with high resolution and accuracy are needed. In this paper, we present the research we conducted on the thermal energy demand of a city district in Graz, Austria. We developed a novel bottom-up, white box, multi-tool workflow for performing large-scale and high-resolution modelling, simulation and analysis of urban buildings in different development scenarios. We calculated the demand for heating, cooling and hot water in full-year dynamic building simulations and assessed the results quantitatively and spatially. Our results in the Scenario 2050 show that despite massive densification of the building stock by 88%, the calculated heat energy demand rises only by 4%; while the cooling demand soars by 432%. All results are available as hourly mean values and annual totals and in easy-to-understand spatial map representations, thus supporting stakeholders to meet the net-zero CO2-equivalent emission targets of Graz.
了解可再生热能的需求对于可持续城市的综合规划至关重要。规划者和决策者需要高质量和全面的数据来采取快速果断的行动。然而,对于现状或可能的发展情景,几乎没有相应的信息。因此,需要高分辨率和高精度的城市建筑能量建模和模拟新方法。本文介绍了我们对奥地利格拉茨市一个城区的热能需求进行的研究。我们开发了一种新颖的自下而上、白盒、多工具的工作流程,用于在不同的开发场景中对城市建筑进行大规模、高分辨率的建模、模拟和分析。我们计算了全年动态建筑模拟中的供暖、制冷和热水需求,并对结果进行了定量和空间评估。我们在情景2050中的结果表明,尽管建筑存量大幅致密化了88%,但计算的热能需求仅增长了4%;而制冷需求猛增432%。所有结果都以小时平均值和年度总数的形式提供,并以易于理解的空间地图表示,从而支持利益相关者实现格拉茨的净零二氧化碳当量排放目标。
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引用次数: 1
Heat pumps and thermal energy storages centralised management in a Renewable Energy Community. 热泵和热能储存在可再生能源社区进行集中管理。
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.54337/ijsepm.7625
M. Pasqui, G. Vaccaro, Pietro Lubello, A. Milazzo, C. Carcasci
This paper examines a Renewable Energy Community (REC) made up of 10 dwellings that collectively self-consume energy produced by a photovoltaic field connected to a water purifier. Each dwelling heat demand is satisfied by means of Heat Pump (HP) coupled with Thermal Energy Storage (TES), which can be managed to perform load shifting and increase collective-self-consumption (CSC). Techno-economic analyses are performed accounting for HPs' COP variation with temperature and part load operations, as well as TES heat dispersion. A new centralised control strategy for HPs is proposed and a sensitivity analysis is performed to assess the impact of varying TES system capacity. The results show that the centralised strategy can increase the CSC by 12-30%, with TES sizes of 100-1000 litres respectively. But the electricity consumption of HPs increases by 2-5% due to higher storage system temperatures causing worse average COPs by 2.3-0.6% and higher thermal losses by 29-58%. As a result, REC's energy independence rise, as does the amount of CSC incentives, but electricity bills also increase. Comparing these trends shows that CSC incentives should be adjusted according to energy prices to ensure cost-effective outcomes for all stakeholders and encourage the adoption of similar centralised control strategies.
本文研究了一个由10个住宅组成的可再生能源社区(REC),这些住宅共同消耗连接到净水器的光伏场产生的能源。通过热泵(HP)和储热系统(TES)来满足每个住宅的热需求,储热系统可以进行负荷转移和增加集体自耗(CSC)。进行了技术经济分析,考虑到HP的COP随温度和部分负荷运行的变化,以及TES的散热。提出了一种新的HP集中控制策略,并进行了灵敏度分析,以评估不同TES系统容量的影响。结果表明,集中策略可以将CSC提高12-30%,TES大小分别为100-1000升。但是,由于存储系统温度较高,导致平均COP降低2.3-0.6%,热损失增加29-58%,HP的耗电量增加了2-5%。因此,REC的能源独立性提高了,CSC的激励措施也增加了,但电费也增加了。比较这些趋势表明,CSC激励措施应根据能源价格进行调整,以确保所有利益相关者获得具有成本效益的结果,并鼓励采用类似的集中控制策略。
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引用次数: 1
Driving success towards zero carbon energy targets for UK’s Local Authorities 推动英国地方政府成功实现零碳能源目标
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.54337/ijsepm.7548
H. Turnell, Caterina Marques, Phil Jones, C. Dunham, A. Revesz, G. Maidment
This paper draws on three recent case studies which have shown encouraging economic results in meeting net zero carbon emissions targets through Smart Local Energy Systems (SLES) in different localities across England, based on the GreenSCIES model. The blueprint for the GreenSCIES SLES was developed in Islington, London, and consists of a 5th generation ambient loop district heat network using wasteheat from a large data centre, and includes electric vehicle charging, storage and solar PV. This allows for heat sharing between buildings and applications for heat recovery from local sources. In Sandwell, Birmingham, where the heating demand is nearly ten times higher than the cooling demand the design is based on a 4th generation heat network with wasteheat from a local metal foundry and some cooling supply and heat storage in the aquifer. A study in Barnsley, Sheffield, explored wasteheat from a local glass factory and considered mine workings for providing seasonal storage of heat for resilience to a single source industry. This scheme could be further expanded, increasing the available carbon emissions savings. These examples provide feasible and economic SLES projects demonstrating the importance of collaboration between researchers, local government and industry. They also illustrate adaptations of the original GreenSCIES concept providing pathways towards net zero carbon for a diverse range of urban locations with different housing density and waste heat sources.
本文借鉴了最近的三个案例研究,这些案例研究表明,基于GreenSCIES模型,在英格兰不同地区通过智能本地能源系统(SLES)实现净零碳排放目标取得了令人鼓舞的经济成果。GreenSCIES SLES的蓝图是在伦敦伊斯灵顿开发的,由第五代环境循环区域热网组成,利用大型数据中心的废热,包括电动汽车充电、存储和太阳能光伏。这允许建筑物之间的热量共享和应用从本地热源回收热量。在伯明翰的Sandwell,供暖需求几乎是制冷需求的十倍,该设计基于第四代热网,其中包括当地金属铸造厂的废热以及含水层中的一些冷却供应和蓄热。在谢菲尔德的巴恩斯利进行的一项研究探索了当地一家玻璃厂的废热,并考虑了矿井的工作,以提供季节性的热量储存,以适应单一来源的工业。这一计划可以进一步扩大,增加现有的碳排放节约。这些例子提供了可行和经济的SLES项目,证明了研究人员、地方政府和工业之间合作的重要性。它们还说明了对原始GreenSCIES概念的适应,为具有不同住房密度和废热来源的各种城市地点提供了实现净零碳排放的途径。
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引用次数: 1
Socio-Economic and environmental indicators: do they go hand in hand or back to back? A zoom into SDG7 社会经济和环境指标:它们是齐头并进还是相辅相成?放大SDG7
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.54337/ijsepm.7482
C. Teotónio, Rita Martins, Micaela Antunes
The EU is succeeding in the achievement of climate and energy targets, but affordability of energy services cannot be left behind. The paper assesses the interlinkages between SDG 7’s social, economic and environmental dimensions to understand whether they go hand in hand or back to back. With Eurostat data for 27 countries for the share of households unable to keep homes warm, energy dependency and the share of renewables, we use correlations and scatter (for pairs) and the Venn diagram (for the combination of the three). Results show a diversity of synergistic or trade-off paths, making clear that the solutions to improve the progress in SDG 7 cannot be the same for all Member States and that even the most urgent measures in a domain should not compromise advancements in others. The micro affordability ratios computed and the share of households with affordability problems expose a greater extension of issues than those revealed by EU affordability indicator, confirming the relevance of looking at the problem from different lenses. Moreover, households with elder and living in more isolated areas are found especially prevalent among those with affordability problems. This should be accommodated in policy measures to support those most in need.
欧盟在实现气候和能源目标方面取得了成功,但能源服务的可负担性不能落后。本文评估了可持续发展目标7的社会、经济和环境维度之间的相互联系,以了解它们是齐头并进还是相辅相成。根据欧盟统计局(Eurostat)关于27个国家无法保持房屋温暖的家庭比例、能源依赖程度和可再生能源比例的数据,我们使用了相关性和分散(对)和维恩图(对三者的组合)。结果显示了多种协同或权衡路径,明确指出,改善可持续发展目标7进展的解决方案不可能对所有会员国都相同,即使是一个领域中最紧迫的措施也不应损害其他领域的进展。计算出的微观负担能力比率和有负担能力问题的家庭比例比欧盟负担能力指标所揭示的问题更广泛,证实了从不同角度看待问题的相关性。此外,在有负担能力问题的家庭中,居住在较偏远地区的老人家庭尤为普遍。这应纳入支持最需要帮助的人的政策措施。
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引用次数: 1
Design approach to extend and decarbonise existing district heating systems - case study for German cities 扩展和脱碳现有区域供暖系统的设计方法——以德国城市为例
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.54337/ijsepm.7655
Denis Divkovic, Lukas Knorr, H. Meschede
This paper aims to present an approach for the planning of carbon low heat supply in a future district heating system based on open data for German cities with existing district heating networks. One focus is on the integration of industrial waste heat and the uncertainty of future waste heat sources as well as restrictions on the use of biomass. For that purpose, knowledge about the energy demand is necessary. In a first step it is shown how the demand around a heating network is estimated with spatial data and a load profile is generated. Local available heat sources are examined according to their suitability and their kind of integration in the heating network. As heat production from different units are optimised, the development of a simulation model will be presented. The simulation is based on the optimisation of the operational costs of the used technologies for heating supply. Different scenarios covering various technologies and economic assumptions are applied. The results show the levelized costs of heating as well as the ecological performance. A sensitivity analysis shows the importance of uncertainties for the economic assumptions. The results showing levelized costs of heating as well as the ecological performance underlining the advantage of excess heat integration.
本文旨在基于现有区域供热网络的德国城市的开放数据,提出一种在未来区域供热系统中规划低碳供热的方法。一个重点是工业废热的整合和未来废热来源的不确定性以及对生物质使用的限制。为此,了解能源需求是必要的。第一步展示了如何利用空间数据估计供热网络周围的需求,并生成负荷概况。根据局部可用热源的适宜性及其在供热网络中的集成类型对其进行检查。由于来自不同单元的产热是优化的,将提出一个模拟模型的发展。模拟是基于供热技术运行成本的优化。不同的场景涵盖了不同的技术和经济假设。结果表明,采暖成本和生态效益均达到了均等化水平。敏感性分析表明不确定性对经济假设的重要性。结果显示了供暖成本的平等化以及生态性能,强调了余热集成的优势。
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引用次数: 2
Multi-objective optimization of an energy community: an integrated and dynamic approach for full decarbonisation in the European Alps 能源社区的多目标优化:欧洲阿尔卑斯山完全脱碳的综合动态方法
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-07-06 DOI: 10.54337/ijsepm.7607
Diego Viesi, M. S. Mahbub, Alessandro Brandi, J. Z. Thellufsen, Poul Alberg Østergaard, H. Lund, M. Baratieri, L. Crema
At the local level, energy communities are at the forefront of the European Green Deal strategy offering new opportunities for citizens to get actively involved in energy markets. The scope of this study is to propose a multi-objective optimization framework to minimize both carbon dioxide emissions and total annual costs in an energy community, considering, within different constraints, a wide availability of decision variables including local renewable energy sources, sector coupling, storage and hydrogen. The methodology involves the coupling of the software EnergyPLAN with a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm, considering 2030 and 2050 as target years and modelling a set of eight types of scenarios, each consisting of 100 optimal systems out of 10,000. The case study is an energy community in the European Alps. The results show, on the one hand, the key role of sector coupling technologies such as cogeneration, heat pumps and electric vehicles in exploiting local renewable energy sources and, on the other hand, the higher costs in introducing both electricity storage to achieve a complete decarbonisation and hydrogen as an alternative strategy in the electricity, thermal and transport sectors.
在地方一级,能源社区处于欧洲绿色协议战略的前沿,为公民积极参与能源市场提供了新的机会。本研究的范围是提出一个多目标优化框架,以最大限度地减少能源社区的二氧化碳排放和年度总成本,在不同的约束条件下,考虑广泛可用的决策变量,包括当地可再生能源、部门耦合、储存和氢气。该方法涉及将软件EnergyPLAN与多目标进化算法相结合,将2030年和2050年视为目标年,并对一组八种类型的场景进行建模,每种场景由10000个最佳系统中的100个组成。案例研究是欧洲阿尔卑斯山的一个能源社区。研究结果表明,一方面,热电联产、热泵和电动汽车等部门耦合技术在开发当地可再生能源方面发挥着关键作用,另一方面,在电力、热力和运输部门,引入储电以实现完全脱碳和氢作为替代战略的成本更高。
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引用次数: 1
Multiplayer game for decision-making in energy communities 能源社区决策的多人游戏
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-06-22 DOI: 10.54337/ijsepm.7549
Vita Brakovska, Ruta Vanaga, Ģirts Bohvalovs, Leonora Fila, A. Blumberga
Energy communities are widely studied from various perspectives, especially in the context of geopolitical events of recent years, when humanity is faced with the need for urgent solutions to promote climate change and alleviate the crisis of energy resources. Although citizens' interest in the use of renewable resources has gradually grown, energy policy support measures for more active participation of society in the implementation of energy efficiency measures are still being implemented with variable success, especially through mutual agreement. Serious games are a rapidly growing tool for awareness and collaboration on a single platform for gamers seeking solutions to energy resource optimization issues. The paper focuses on energy community versus energy use practices, trends, and intervention strategies in multifamily residential blocks, using serious gaming and direct user online feedback. This study uses a multi-player simulation tool to enable the modelling of scenarios for energy efficiency measures for apartment building block residents and energy community target goals for decision-making decisions. User experience and game mechanics were tested on a pre-selected group. The results indicate positive feedback, including a practical application for both energy community and professionals, and provide valuable recommendations for further research and improvement of the tool.
能源界从各种角度进行了广泛的研究,特别是在近年来地缘政治事件的背景下,当时人类面临着促进气候变化和缓解能源危机的紧急解决方案的需要。尽管公民对使用可再生资源的兴趣逐渐增加,但社会更积极参与实施能效措施的能源政策支持措施仍在实施中,取得了不同程度的成功,特别是通过相互协议。严肃游戏是一种快速增长的工具,用于在单一平台上进行意识和协作,供寻求能源资源优化问题解决方案的玩家使用。该论文使用严肃的游戏和直接的用户在线反馈,重点关注能源社区与多户住宅区的能源使用实践、趋势和干预策略。本研究使用多参与者模拟工具,对公寓楼居民的能源效率措施和能源社区决策目标的情景进行建模。用户体验和游戏机制在预先选择的小组中进行了测试。研究结果表明了积极的反馈,包括对能源界和专业人士的实际应用,并为该工具的进一步研究和改进提供了宝贵的建议。
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引用次数: 2
Who triggers change? Social network mapping, stakeholder analysis and energy systems interventions in Nigeria’s electricity sector 谁触发了变革?尼日利亚电力部门的社会网络测绘、利益相关者分析和能源系统干预
Q1 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2023-04-01 DOI: 10.54337/ijsepm.7246
Following decades’ of energy systems interventions, there has been growing concerns about the impact of historical interventions on-the-ground and how they shape changes in energy systems. Who are the key actors and how have they shaped historical energy systems interventions? In this study, an analysis of stakeholders in Nigeria’s electricity sector through a social network mapping lens was conducted. First, a stakeholder mapping based on an interest-influence matrix that shows the degree of various stakeholder interest and influence in shaping decisions and interventions in both centralized and decentralized electricity systems was developed. Secondly, a stakeholder network grid that shows the relations between the various stakeholders (who knows whom) was developed. The study reveals that there are stronger network relations among stakeholders involved in issues and decisions on centralized electricity grid infrastructure which is influenced by the presence of stronger regulations/regulatory instruments. However, these stakeholder relations are weaker in decentralized electricity systems due to less stringent regulations in the decentralized electricity space. The study concludes by highlighting the impact of the stakeholder relations and the interest-influence tussle on the future of electricity systems development in Nigeria. 
经过几十年的能源系统干预,人们越来越担心历史干预对当地的影响,以及它们如何影响能源系统的变化。谁是关键参与者,他们是如何形成历史能源系统干预的?在这项研究中,通过社会网络映射的视角对尼日利亚电力部门的利益相关者进行了分析。首先,开发了一个基于利益影响矩阵的利益相关者映射,该矩阵显示了集中和分散电力系统中各种利益相关者在制定决策和干预措施方面的利益和影响程度。其次,开发了一个利益相关者网络网格,显示各种利益相关者(谁知道谁)之间的关系。研究表明,参与集中式电网基础设施问题和决策的利益相关者之间存在更强的网络关系,这受到更强有力的法规/监管工具的影响。然而,由于分散电力领域的监管不那么严格,这些利益相关者关系在分散电力系统中较弱。该研究最后强调了利益相关者关系和利益影响之争对尼日利亚电力系统发展未来的影响。
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引用次数: 1
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International Journal of Sustainable Energy Planning and Management
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