World Development Perspectives最新文献_第5页

Keynes’ theory of liquidity preference and microfinance banks in Africa 凯恩斯流动性偏好理论与非洲小额信贷银行

IF 2.3 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development Perspectives

Pub Date : 2025-09-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.wdp.2025.100732

Jacob Tche

Keynesian and Post Keynesian Economists have extensively discussed the theory of liquidity preference and the importance of obtaining loan funds from traditional banks. However, there is a distinct lack of theoretical and empirical evidence that demonstrates the effectiveness of Keynes’ Finance Motive in stimulating the demand for money and fostering economic growth within the realm of microfinance banks (MFBs) as vital financial institutions in developing countries. This paper endeavors to address the current research gap by examining a modified version of Keynes’ (1936) Finance Circuit, Keynes’ (1936) money demand and economic growth models that incorporates funds from MFBs. The present paper aims to further contribute to the literature through the empirical assessment of the significance of the above theoretical contributions using a sample of 32 African countries covering the time frame from 1990 to 2021. We utilize Granger causality tests in heterogeneous panels, as well as the Fixed Effect Ordinary Least Squares method, the Mean Group Method, and the Generalized Method of Moments. The empirical results confirm the significance of the inclusion of microfinance bank funds in the financial system which lower interest rates and enhance the demand for money and economic growth as illustrated in our theoretical contributions. The policy implications indicate that it is fundamental for regulatory authorities to involve microfinance banks in the financial system and to lower interest rates. This strategy is likely to enhance the demand for money and promote economic growth.

凯恩斯主义和后凯恩斯主义经济学家对流动性偏好理论和从传统银行获得贷款资金的重要性进行了广泛的讨论。然而，在作为发展中国家重要金融机构的小额信贷银行（mfb）领域内，明显缺乏理论和经验证据来证明凯恩斯的金融动机在刺激货币需求和促进经济增长方面的有效性。本文试图通过检查凯恩斯（1936）金融循环的修改版本，凯恩斯（1936）的货币需求和经济增长模型，其中包括来自mfb的资金，来解决当前的研究差距。本文旨在利用1990年至2021年期间32个非洲国家的样本，通过对上述理论贡献的重要性进行实证评估，进一步为文献做出贡献。我们在异质面板中使用格兰杰因果检验，以及固定效应普通最小二乘法，平均群法和广义矩法。实证结果证实了在金融体系中纳入小额信贷银行资金的重要性，它降低了利率，提高了货币需求和经济增长，正如我们的理论贡献所说明的那样。政策影响表明，监管当局必须让小额信贷银行参与金融体系并降低利率。这一策略可能会增加货币需求，促进经济增长。

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引用次数: 0

The determinants of multidimensional poverty in the urban slums of Dhaka city 达卡城市贫民窟多维贫困的决定因素

IF 2.3 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development Perspectives

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wdp.2025.100725

S.M. Asif Ehsan , Mazharul Hoque Bhuiyan , Mashnur Rahman , Md Saifur Rahman Sayeef , Marufa Ferdausi , Md Sajadul Alam , Abdul Hannan Chowdhury , Md. Jakariya

Communities in urban slums that are in dire need of uplifting from poverty are often overlooked in favor of countrywide macroeconomic initiatives to alleviate poverty. The poverty metrics utilized are generally based on income and expenditure. Nevertheless, poverty has a multifaceted nature with absolute and relative components. This paper examines the determinants of the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) in the urban slum areas, utilizing a household questionnaire survey conducted in the slums of Dhaka, Bangladesh. We use the ordered probit regression method, a binary response model, to identify socio-economic, environmental, and climate-change-induced factors affecting different categories of poverty. Our estimation results show that child school attendance, structural vulnerability, use of shared toilets, and the household head’s education level have the most statistically significant impact on the MPI. While the findings from this paper can induce policymakers to take a community-specific approach in the urban slums of Dhaka city, the MPI’s shortcomings in capturing environmental factors increasing the vulnerability of communities to external shocks should not be overlooked.

迫切需要摆脱贫困的城市贫民窟社区往往被忽视，而有利于全国范围内减轻贫困的宏观经济举措。所用的贫穷指标一般以收入和支出为基础。然而，贫穷具有多方面的性质，既有绝对成分，也有相对成分。本文利用在孟加拉国达卡贫民窟进行的家庭问卷调查，研究了城市贫民窟地区多维贫困指数（MPI）的决定因素。我们使用有序概率回归方法（二元响应模型）来确定影响不同类别贫困的社会经济、环境和气候变化诱发因素。我们的估计结果表明，儿童入学率、结构脆弱性、共用厕所的使用和户主的教育水平对MPI的影响在统计上最为显著。虽然本文的研究结果可以促使政策制定者在达卡的城市贫民窟采取针对社区的方法，但MPI在捕捉环境因素方面的缺陷不应被忽视，这些因素会增加社区对外部冲击的脆弱性。

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引用次数: 0

Military expenditures and macroeconomic indicators in selected countries of Asia and Africa 亚洲和非洲某些国家的军事开支和宏观经济指标

IF 2.3 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development Perspectives

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wdp.2025.100727

Faisal Jamil, Mayira Sabir

The study examines the impact of fiscal policy by identifying the effect of government military spending on aggregate economic activity. The analysis utilizes panel data from 30 countries spanning the period 2000–2018. We checked the impact of military expenditures on the real effective exchange rate, current account balance, and private consumption. Our sample comprises peaceful and war-ridden countries from the Asian and African continents. The empirical models are estimated separately for Asia and Africa, as well as for countries experiencing both peace and war. The results suggest that military spending shocks have a significant impact on the real exchange rate and current account in peaceful countries. In contrast, the shock has a significant effect on private consumption in war-ridden countries. The military expenditure shock is more detrimental to the current account in Asian countries than in African countries. Military spending is import-based, primarily in developing countries, and is financed through external debt or assistance, which in turn influences exchange rates, private consumption, and the current account balance. For sustained economic growth, the share of military spending needs to be phased out and replaced with civil spending that requires strengthening diplomatic channels and engaging in multilateral trade agreements.

该研究通过确定政府军事开支对总体经济活动的影响来检验财政政策的影响。该分析利用了2000年至2018年期间来自30个国家的面板数据。我们检查了军费开支对实际有效汇率、经常账户余额和私人消费的影响。我们的样本包括来自亚洲和非洲大陆的和平和饱受战争蹂躏的国家。经验模型分别对亚洲和非洲以及经历和平与战争的国家进行了估计。结果表明，军费冲击对和平国家的实际汇率和经常账户有重大影响。相反，这种冲击对饱受战争困扰的国家的私人消费产生了重大影响。军事开支的冲击对亚洲国家的经常帐户比非洲国家更有害。军事开支主要以进口为基础，主要在发展中国家，并通过外债或援助筹集资金，这反过来又影响到汇率、私人消费和经常账户余额。为了持续的经济增长，军事开支的份额需要逐步减少，取而代之的是需要加强外交渠道和参与多边贸易协定的民事开支。

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引用次数: 0

Long-term health impacts of the Eritrean-Ethiopian war on young Ethiopian adults 厄立特里亚-埃塞俄比亚战争对埃塞俄比亚青年健康的长期影响

IF 2.3 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development Perspectives

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wdp.2025.100723

Yemareshet Hailu Demeke , Dainn Wie

The Eritrean–Ethiopian War (1998–2000), triggered by a border dispute in Badme, caused thousands of deaths and widespread disruption. This study investigates whether in utero exposure to the conflict has long-term effects on young adult health outcomes, focusing on height and BMI measured 16 years after the war. We identify these effects based on individuals’ birth cohorts and their proximity to major conflict sites, using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). Difference-in-differences estimates reveal a significant and negative impact of in utero conflict exposure on adult height, while effects on BMI are smaller and less consistent. The height effect remains robust to socioeconomic controls, supporting the critical period programming hypothesis. Higher parental socioeconomic status mitigates the adverse effects, suggesting that access to resources offers a protective buffer. We test robustness across alternative conflict measures and functional forms and find little evidence of selective fertility or mortality, though some caution is warranted due to possible selection that remains uncaptured.

由巴德梅的边界争端引发的厄立特里亚-埃塞俄比亚战争（1998-2000年）造成数千人死亡，并造成广泛破坏。这项研究调查了在子宫内接触冲突是否会对年轻人的健康结果产生长期影响，重点关注了战后16年测量的身高和体重指数。我们使用来自人口与健康调查（DHS）和武装冲突地点和事件数据项目（ACLED）的数据，根据个人的出生队列及其与主要冲突地点的接近程度来确定这些影响。差异中的差异估计显示，子宫内冲突暴露对成年身高有显著的负面影响，而对BMI的影响较小且不太一致。身高效应在社会经济控制下仍然很强大，这支持了关键时期规划假说。较高的父母社会经济地位减轻了不利影响，这表明获得资源提供了一个保护性缓冲。我们测试了不同冲突度量和功能形式的稳健性，发现很少有选择性生育或死亡率的证据，尽管由于可能的选择仍未被捕获，因此有必要谨慎一些。

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引用次数: 0

Doubling: How it is impoverishing a mining community in India 加倍：它是如何使印度的一个矿业社区变得贫困的

IF 2.3 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development Perspectives

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wdp.2025.100726

Prajna Paramita Mishra , Ch. Sravan , Sujit Kumar Mishra

The wide availability of minerals provides a base for the growth and development of the mining sector in India, with coal playing a distinctive role. Despite the adverse environmental and social externalities, the coal-bearing states seek to maximise their mineral revenues. However, these revenues may not always translate into unmitigated benefits for the local communities. This paper attempts to highlight an emerging issue in the Indian mining sector—that of an informal kind of local financing, referred to as “doubling,” and how it affects the community. Insights are drawn from field visits (including consultation workshops, focus group discussions, and immersive discussions) to nine mining villages in the Basundhara area of Sundargarh district in Odisha, a state in eastern India, rich in mineral deposits. The study found that doubling enriches the wealthy lenders and impoverishes the poor borrowers, results in mortal threats issued to the borrower in the event of non-repayment, and disrupts social cohesion within local communities, in terms of the dilemma of whether to accept or reject compensation from mining companies. The study concludes that doubling, an illegal and unethical loan contract, signifies an aspect of the socio-economic mismanagement within mining communities.

矿物的广泛供应为印度采矿部门的增长和发展提供了基础，其中煤炭发挥着独特的作用。尽管存在不利的环境和社会外部性，产煤州仍寻求将其矿产收入最大化。然而，这些收入可能并不总是转化为当地社区的绝对利益。本文试图强调印度矿业部门出现的一个新问题——一种非正式的地方融资，被称为“翻倍”，以及它如何影响社区。本文通过实地考察（包括咨询研讨会、焦点小组讨论和沉浸式讨论），对印度东部奥里萨邦Sundargarh区Basundhara地区九个矿产丰富的采矿村进行了深入了解。研究发现，翻倍使富有的放贷者更富，而使贫穷的借款者更穷，导致借款人在不还款的情况下面临致命威胁，并在接受或拒绝矿业公司赔偿的两难境地中破坏当地社区的社会凝聚力。该研究的结论是，非法和不道德的贷款合同加倍表明了采矿社区社会经济管理不善的一个方面。

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引用次数: 0

Committeefication of African urban development:The case of Ghana’s Greater Accra Resilient and Integrated Development Project (GARID) 非洲城市发展委员会：以加纳大阿克拉弹性综合发展项目（GARID）为例

IF 2.3 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development Perspectives

Pub Date : 2025-09-01 DOI: 10.1016/j.wdp.2025.100724

Rosina Sheburah Essien , George Owusu , Kofi Kekeli Amedzro , Musah Aziba Issah

The World Bank and other international development organizations are increasingly gravitating towards the idea of resilience. The inherent idea of inclusivity as part of urban development processes requires a bottom-up, participatory, and community-based approach to achieving resilience which encourages what Caroline Archambault and David Ehrhardt call ‘committeefication’– a process through which committees are set to oversee community-based interventions – as an institutional vehicle for managing projects, particularly those in African cities. The World Bank-funded GARID project is no exception because it acknowledges multiple producers of resilience, which has led to the creation of several committees on the project to oversee its implementation. Using the qualitative approach, this paper interrogates the context within which committeefication occurs in this Ghanaian/World Bank case, who occupies this space, what they negotiate and what challenges arise working with/or in committees. To do this, we distinguish State Development Committees (SDCs) from Community Development Committees (CDCs) in order to argue that CDCs, unlike SDCs, may not necessarily be able to fulfil their roles because of the nature of state-community committee relations, which is often characterized by micro/macro politics and unequal patterns of participation.

世界银行和其他国际发展组织越来越倾向于复原力的概念。作为城市发展进程的一部分，包容性的固有理念需要一种自下而上的、参与性的、基于社区的方法来实现复原力，这鼓励了Caroline Archambault和David Ehrhardt所说的“委员会化”——通过设立委员会来监督基于社区的干预措施的过程——作为管理项目的制度性工具，特别是在非洲城市。世界银行资助的GARID项目也不例外，因为它承认韧性的多个生产者，这导致了该项目成立了几个委员会来监督其实施。使用定性方法，本文询问了在加纳/世界银行案例中委员会化发生的背景，谁占据了这个空间，他们谈判了什么，以及与委员会合作或在委员会中出现了什么挑战。为了做到这一点，我们将国家发展委员会（SDCs）与社区发展委员会（cdc）区分开来，以证明cdc与SDCs不同，由于国家-社区委员会关系的性质（通常以微观/宏观政治和不平等的参与模式为特征），可能不一定能够履行其角色。

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引用次数: 0

Impacts of livelihood empowerment programs on refugee wellbeing and economic inclusion: Evidence from Dollo Ado refugee camps in Ethiopia 生计赋权项目对难民福祉和经济包容的影响：来自埃塞俄比亚多洛阿多难民营的证据

IF 2.3 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development Perspectives

Pub Date : 2025-08-25 DOI: 10.1016/j.wdp.2025.100720

Silas Amo-Agyei , Florence Nana Pokuaah Nimoh , Ibrahima Sarr , Maryada Vallet

The ongoing insecurity and environmental shocks in Somalia have led to a substantial refugee influx into Ethiopia since 2006, particularly affecting Dollo Ado sub-region, where five camps now shelter 215,000 refugees and asylum seekers as of March 2024. Addressing the protracted needs of these camps, UNHCR, in collaboration with the IKEA Foundation, has implemented livelihood empowerment projects aimed at economic inclusion. This paper evaluates the impact of the third phase of the IKEA Foundation’s Livelihoods and Energy and Environment Projects (2019–2021), focusing on cooperative and business groups involved in agriculture, livestock, firewood, and solar energy. Despite the lack of a control group, our econometric approach allows us to explore significant temporal changes attributed to the intervention. Our findings demonstrate significant improvements in mental health, life satisfaction, financial inclusion, and social integration among participants. While the interventions successfully enhanced income and savings opportunities, particularly for women, they did not significantly improve food security, indicating external influences such as regional instability, humanitarian shortfalls, and climate issues. This study underscores the necessity of multi-stakeholder collaboration to improve refugee welfare in protracted crises and highlights the importance of livelihood empowerment investments to optimize wellbeing and economic inclusion outcomes.

自2006年以来，索马里持续的不安全和环境冲击导致大量难民涌入埃塞俄比亚，尤其影响到多洛阿多分区域，截至2024年3月，该区域的五个难民营目前收容了21.5万名难民和寻求庇护者。为了解决这些难民营的长期需求，联合国难民署与宜家基金会合作，实施了旨在实现经济包容的生计赋权项目。本文评估了宜家基金会生计和能源与环境项目第三阶段（2019-2021）的影响，重点关注农业、畜牧业、柴火和太阳能领域的合作社和商业团体。尽管缺乏对照组，我们的计量经济学方法使我们能够探索归因于干预的重大时间变化。我们的研究结果表明，参与者在心理健康、生活满意度、金融包容性和社会融合方面都有显著改善。虽然这些干预措施成功地增加了收入和储蓄机会，特别是妇女的收入和储蓄机会，但并没有显著改善粮食安全，这表明存在区域不稳定、人道主义短缺和气候问题等外部影响。本研究强调了多方利益相关者合作的必要性，以改善长期危机中的难民福利，并强调了生计赋权投资对优化福祉和经济包容成果的重要性。

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引用次数: 0

How much of economic growth trickles down to the population in resource-rich countries? evidence from Papua New Guinea 在资源丰富的国家，有多少经济增长惠及了人口？证据来自巴布亚新几内亚

IF 2.3 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development Perspectives

Pub Date : 2025-08-23 DOI: 10.1016/j.wdp.2025.100719

Paripoorna Baxi, Darian Naidoo, Sharad Tandon

There has been substantial growth in the resource sector in PNG during the last resource boom and significant increases in international assistance, both of which might have translated into improved well-being outcomes across the country. To better understand whether these changes improved household-level outcomes, we update estimates of key well-being outcomes in the country. Specifically, we impute monetary poverty status using non-monetary indicators in the 2016–18 Demographic and Health Survey and estimate the World Bank’s Multidimensional Poverty Measure. Despite the significant growth since 2009, monetary poverty and access to several essential services hardly changed, which stands in stark contrast to the substantial improvement across the rest of the world and other comparison regions over the same period. Combined, the results illustrate that it is possible that very little resource-led growth trickles down to the population and that the link between macroeconomic and microeconomic outcomes is more tenuous in PNG than found in other resource-intensive settings.

在上一次资源繁荣期间，巴布亚新几内亚的资源部门出现了大幅增长，国际援助也大幅增加，这两者都可能转化为全国福祉的改善。为了更好地了解这些变化是否改善了家庭层面的结果，我们更新了对该国主要福祉结果的估计。具体而言，我们使用2016-18年人口与健康调查中的非货币指标估算货币贫困状况，并估计世界银行的多维贫困措施。尽管自2009年以来增长显著，但货币贫困和几种基本服务的可及性几乎没有改变，这与同期世界其他地区和其他比较地区的大幅改善形成鲜明对比。综上所述，研究结果表明，与其他资源密集型国家相比，巴布亚新几内亚的宏观经济和微观经济结果之间的联系可能更加薄弱。

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引用次数: 0

The political consequences of resource scarcity: Targeted spending in a water-stressed democracy. A replication study of Mahadevan and Shenoy (Journal of Public Economics, 2023) 资源短缺的政治后果：水资源紧张的民主国家的定向支出。Mahadevan和Shenoy的复制研究（Journal of Public Economics, 2023）

IF 2.3 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development Perspectives

Pub Date : 2025-08-19 DOI: 10.1016/j.wdp.2025.100707

Ryan McWay, Matthew Braaksma

Mahadevan and Shenoy (2023) assesses the use of state influence on funding for welfare programs in West Bengal for political targeting during periods of economic distress. Using a multidimensional regression discontinuity design, the authors find a misallocation of funding for a make-work program to support incumbent majority parties in electoral jurisdictions facing water-stress. This clientelism increased voting shares from farming communities using vote-buying strategies during a period of high unemployment (the dry season). We successfully computationally reproduce their results, and note some potential revisions to the replication packet to improve future replication. Further, we test the robustness replicability of the results through re-analyses modifying the definition of labor allocation, the definition of water-stress, as well as sub-analysis by voter turnout and voter population. We find that extreme water-stress jurisdictions are heavy recipients of reallocated labor, and find that labor is reallocated from part-time to full-time employment through the welfare program. Electoral victories from the ruling party successful implement vote-buying strategies in water-stressed electorates with high voter-turnout and large constituencies. This replication provides support for the internal validity of Mahadevan and Shenoy (2023)’s results and sheds a deeper light into the reallocation of welfare programs during periods of economic disaster.

Mahadevan和Shenoy（2023）评估了在西孟加拉邦经济困难时期，国家对福利项目资金的影响，以实现政治目标。使用多维回归不连续设计，作者发现，在面临水资源压力的选举管辖区，为支持在职多数政党的创造工作计划提供资金分配不当。这种庇护主义在高失业率时期（旱季）利用贿选策略增加了农业社区的投票份额。我们成功地通过计算重现了他们的结果，并对复制数据包进行了一些潜在的修订，以改进未来的复制。进一步，我们通过修改劳动力分配定义、水资源压力定义的重新分析，以及选民投票率和选民人口的子分析来检验结果的稳健性和可重复性。我们发现，极度缺水的司法管辖区是重新分配劳动力的大量接受者，并且发现劳动力通过福利计划从兼职重新分配到全职。执政党的选举胜利成功地在高投票率和大选区的缺水地区实施了贿选战略。这种重复为Mahadevan和Shenoy（2023）的结果的内部有效性提供了支持，并对经济灾难期间福利计划的再分配提供了更深入的了解。

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引用次数: 0

Better tracking SDG progress with fewer resources? A call for more innovative data uses 用更少的资源更好地跟踪可持续发展目标的进展？呼吁更多创新的数据使用

IF 2.3 Q2 DEVELOPMENT STUDIES

World Development Perspectives

Pub Date : 2025-08-16 DOI: 10.1016/j.wdp.2025.100721

Hai-Anh Dang , Calogero Carletto , Dean Jolliffe

引用次数: 0