Pub Date : 2022-07-30DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2022.2103386
Stephane J. Baele, Lewys Brace, Travis G. Coan, Elahe Naserian
ABSTRACT This paper examines patterns of posting behaviour on extremist online forums in order to empirically identify and define classes of highly active ‘super-posters'. Using a unique dataset of 8 far-right, 7 Salafi-jihadist, and 2 Incel forums, totalling 12,569,639 unique posts, the study operates a three-dimensional analysis of super-posters (Gini coefficient, Fisher-Jenks algorithm, network analysis) that sheds light on the type of influence at play in these online spaces. Our study shows that extremist forums consistently display four statistically distinguishable classes of posters from the least active ‘hypo-posters' to the most active ‘hyper-posters', as well as demonstrating that, while hyper-posters’ activity is remarkable, they are not necessarily the most central or connected members of extremist forums. These findings, which suggest that extremist forums are places where both minority and majority influences occur, not only advance our understanding of a key locus of online radicalisation; they also pave the way for sounder interventions to monitor and disrupt the phenomenon.
{"title":"Super- (and hyper-) posters on extremist forums","authors":"Stephane J. Baele, Lewys Brace, Travis G. Coan, Elahe Naserian","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2022.2103386","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2022.2103386","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This paper examines patterns of posting behaviour on extremist online forums in order to empirically identify and define classes of highly active ‘super-posters'. Using a unique dataset of 8 far-right, 7 Salafi-jihadist, and 2 Incel forums, totalling 12,569,639 unique posts, the study operates a three-dimensional analysis of super-posters (Gini coefficient, Fisher-Jenks algorithm, network analysis) that sheds light on the type of influence at play in these online spaces. Our study shows that extremist forums consistently display four statistically distinguishable classes of posters from the least active ‘hypo-posters' to the most active ‘hyper-posters', as well as demonstrating that, while hyper-posters’ activity is remarkable, they are not necessarily the most central or connected members of extremist forums. These findings, which suggest that extremist forums are places where both minority and majority influences occur, not only advance our understanding of a key locus of online radicalisation; they also pave the way for sounder interventions to monitor and disrupt the phenomenon.","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":"18 1","pages":"243 - 281"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-07-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41589039","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-06-20DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2022.2086440
Laila Sprejer, H. Margetts, Kleber Oliveira, David J. P. O'Sullivan, Bertie Vidgen
ABSTRACT Radical right actors routinely use social media to spread highly divisive, disruptive, and anti-democratic messages. Assessing and countering such content is crucial for ensuring that online spaces can be open, accessible, and constructive. However, previous work has paid little attention to understanding factors associated with radical right content that goes viral. We investigate this issue with a new dataset (the ‘ROT' dataset) which provides insight into the content, engagement, and followership of a set of 35 radical right actors who are active in the UK. ROT contains over 50,000 original entries and over 40 million retweets, quotes, replies and mentions, as well as detailed information about followership. We use a multilevel model to assess engagement with tweets and show the importance of both actor- and content-level factors, including the number of followers each actor has, the toxicity of their content, the presence of media and explicit requests for retweets. We argue that it is crucial to account for role of actors in radical right viral tweets, and therefore, moderation efforts should be taken not only on a post-to-post level but also on an account level.
{"title":"An actor-based approach to understanding radical right viral tweets in the UK","authors":"Laila Sprejer, H. Margetts, Kleber Oliveira, David J. P. O'Sullivan, Bertie Vidgen","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2022.2086440","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2022.2086440","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Radical right actors routinely use social media to spread highly divisive, disruptive, and anti-democratic messages. Assessing and countering such content is crucial for ensuring that online spaces can be open, accessible, and constructive. However, previous work has paid little attention to understanding factors associated with radical right content that goes viral. We investigate this issue with a new dataset (the ‘ROT' dataset) which provides insight into the content, engagement, and followership of a set of 35 radical right actors who are active in the UK. ROT contains over 50,000 original entries and over 40 million retweets, quotes, replies and mentions, as well as detailed information about followership. We use a multilevel model to assess engagement with tweets and show the importance of both actor- and content-level factors, including the number of followers each actor has, the toxicity of their content, the presence of media and explicit requests for retweets. We argue that it is crucial to account for role of actors in radical right viral tweets, and therefore, moderation efforts should be taken not only on a post-to-post level but also on an account level.","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":"18 1","pages":"139 - 157"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-06-20","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49252180","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-30DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2022.2069474
Sophia Yakhlef
ABSTRACT Previous studies have highlighted the significant role played by what is referred to as the ‘police gaze’, or the set of tacit skills that police officers use in their everyday work to scan the environment, to identify sources of threats or suspects on the streets. The present study suggests that the police gaze can also be used among police officers who do not know one another and do not know whom to trust and who not to trust. This is even more so in collaborative contexts that require the sharing of sensitive information and knowledge, such as in police intelligence work. The aim of the present paper is to suggest how intelligence officers use jokes and humour to identify whom to trust and whom not to trust. Not only is humour used as a social basis for building a sense of group identity and developing better interpersonal collaboration skills, but it is also used to test which colleagues are more trustworthy than others. The paper ends with conclusions, implications, and suggestions for further studies.
{"title":"Humour, trust, and tacit knowledge of police and border officers in international police collaboration","authors":"Sophia Yakhlef","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2022.2069474","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2022.2069474","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT\u0000 Previous studies have highlighted the significant role played by what is referred to as the ‘police gaze’, or the set of tacit skills that police officers use in their everyday work to scan the environment, to identify sources of threats or suspects on the streets. The present study suggests that the police gaze can also be used among police officers who do not know one another and do not know whom to trust and who not to trust. This is even more so in collaborative contexts that require the sharing of sensitive information and knowledge, such as in police intelligence work. The aim of the present paper is to suggest how intelligence officers use jokes and humour to identify whom to trust and whom not to trust. Not only is humour used as a social basis for building a sense of group identity and developing better interpersonal collaboration skills, but it is also used to test which colleagues are more trustworthy than others. The paper ends with conclusions, implications, and suggestions for further studies.","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":"658 ","pages":"174 - 188"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-30","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41315025","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-25DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2022.2045622
Brittnee Carter, Ranya Ahmed, Cagil Albayrak, Maya Van Nuys
ABSTRACT Scholars consistently suggest that religiously motivated terrorist groups are more violent and more lethal. This necessarily drives questions about how religious ideology is connected to outcomes of terrorist group behaviour. This study examines how variations in religious ideology may influence strategic choices like target selection, tactic adoption, and the lethality of attacks. Terrorism motivated by Islamism and Christian fundamentalism are examined theoretically and empirically in a framework that allows for comparison across the groups within the same analysis. Though our results support existing claims that religiously motivated terrorism is more likely to target civilians, we find inter-religious differences in tactic adoption and secondary target selection. Finally, while we do find evidence that Islamist terrorism is likely more lethal than secular terrorism, Christian fundamentalist terrorism yields a higher expected casualty rate per attack when compared within the same model.
{"title":"Disaggregating religiously motivated terrorism: ideology as a frame for strategic behaviour in Islamist and Christian fundamentalist terrorism","authors":"Brittnee Carter, Ranya Ahmed, Cagil Albayrak, Maya Van Nuys","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2022.2045622","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2022.2045622","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Scholars consistently suggest that religiously motivated terrorist groups are more violent and more lethal. This necessarily drives questions about how religious ideology is connected to outcomes of terrorist group behaviour. This study examines how variations in religious ideology may influence strategic choices like target selection, tactic adoption, and the lethality of attacks. Terrorism motivated by Islamism and Christian fundamentalism are examined theoretically and empirically in a framework that allows for comparison across the groups within the same analysis. Though our results support existing claims that religiously motivated terrorism is more likely to target civilians, we find inter-religious differences in tactic adoption and secondary target selection. Finally, while we do find evidence that Islamist terrorism is likely more lethal than secular terrorism, Christian fundamentalist terrorism yields a higher expected casualty rate per attack when compared within the same model.","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":"18 1","pages":"72 - 94"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-25","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47612633","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-17DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2022.2063697
Ryan Shaffer
{"title":"Genetic Surveillance and Crime Control: Social, Cultural and Political Perspectives","authors":"Ryan Shaffer","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2022.2063697","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2022.2063697","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":"18 1","pages":"240 - 241"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-17","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42787662","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-04-10DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2022.2048965
James Ramsay, A. Macpherson
{"title":"The integration of statistical learning in intelligence education: is the academy equipping tomorrow’s intelligence professionals to analyze data-centric threats?","authors":"James Ramsay, A. Macpherson","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2022.2048965","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2022.2048965","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":"1 1","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-04-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"43120472","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-03-07DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2022.2037690
A. Wibisono, Iwa Maulana
ABSTRACT Council has mandated member-states pursue criminal prosecution, rehabilitation and reintegration of foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs), the state’s capacity has been limited and there has been public demand to prioritise security over reintegration. The Indonesian public remains divided in terms of facilitating the returnees’ reintegration and rejecting their return for the sake of public security, the government’s response showed an effort to comply with international norms in creating a guided process of rehabilitation and reintegration alongside criminal prosecution of returning foreign fighters. This study uses a dataset of Indonesia’s returning FTFs who joined the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS) between 2015 and 2020 and were prosecuted on their return. This study finds that terrorist network affiliation has been used in the criminal prosecution of returning foreign fighters to determine the degree of risk that they carried. The use of network affiliation is due to the lack of capacity on the state to collect and present evidence of foreign fighting in court. The Indonesian case study showcases the nature of the problem of responding to foreign fighters when the state has limited resources and capacity.
{"title":"Indonesia’s response to returning foreign fighters: network affiliation as basis for risk assessment","authors":"A. Wibisono, Iwa Maulana","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2022.2037690","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2022.2037690","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT Council has mandated member-states pursue criminal prosecution, rehabilitation and reintegration of foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs), the state’s capacity has been limited and there has been public demand to prioritise security over reintegration. The Indonesian public remains divided in terms of facilitating the returnees’ reintegration and rejecting their return for the sake of public security, the government’s response showed an effort to comply with international norms in creating a guided process of rehabilitation and reintegration alongside criminal prosecution of returning foreign fighters. This study uses a dataset of Indonesia’s returning FTFs who joined the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq (ISIS) between 2015 and 2020 and were prosecuted on their return. This study finds that terrorist network affiliation has been used in the criminal prosecution of returning foreign fighters to determine the degree of risk that they carried. The use of network affiliation is due to the lack of capacity on the state to collect and present evidence of foreign fighting in court. The Indonesian case study showcases the nature of the problem of responding to foreign fighters when the state has limited resources and capacity.","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":"18 1","pages":"122 - 134"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-03-07","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"49091600","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-02-22DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2022.2039402
Jason R. Silva
ABSTRACT This study uses a crime script analysis to examine far-right, far-left, and jihadist-inspired ideologically motivated mass shooters (IMMS) in the US (1970-2019). This work provides a comparison of incident rates and shooter backgrounds, as well as the preparation, execution, and conclusion of attacks. When comparing the three IMMS types, findings indicate far-right incidents were most common, far-left shooters were largely Black Nationalists, and jihadist-inspired shooters had more success in life (college graduates, employed, married, parents). During initial preparation, IMMS often leaked violent intentions and had facilitating conditions including criminal, domestic violence, and military histories. Jihadist-inspired shooters had more planning, and far-left shooters often accessed guns illegally. During attack execution, IMMS incidents often occurred in the South and involved open-space and/or unrestricted access locations. Jihadist-inspired shooters targeted government locations more often, while far-left incidents often occurred outside with law enforcement on the scene. During attack conclusion, IMMS incidents often ended quickly and involved gunfire with police. Jihadist-inspired shooters had a higher rate of victim casualties, and far-left shooters had a higher rate of police casualties. Far-right shooters had a higher number of victim and police casualties overall. A discussion of findings contextualises IMMS threats and explores strategies for countering the phenomenon.
{"title":"Ideologically motivated mass shootings: a crime script analysis of far-right, far-left, and jihadist-inspired attacks in the United States","authors":"Jason R. Silva","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2022.2039402","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2022.2039402","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This study uses a crime script analysis to examine far-right, far-left, and jihadist-inspired ideologically motivated mass shooters (IMMS) in the US (1970-2019). This work provides a comparison of incident rates and shooter backgrounds, as well as the preparation, execution, and conclusion of attacks. When comparing the three IMMS types, findings indicate far-right incidents were most common, far-left shooters were largely Black Nationalists, and jihadist-inspired shooters had more success in life (college graduates, employed, married, parents). During initial preparation, IMMS often leaked violent intentions and had facilitating conditions including criminal, domestic violence, and military histories. Jihadist-inspired shooters had more planning, and far-left shooters often accessed guns illegally. During attack execution, IMMS incidents often occurred in the South and involved open-space and/or unrestricted access locations. Jihadist-inspired shooters targeted government locations more often, while far-left incidents often occurred outside with law enforcement on the scene. During attack conclusion, IMMS incidents often ended quickly and involved gunfire with police. Jihadist-inspired shooters had a higher rate of victim casualties, and far-left shooters had a higher rate of police casualties. Far-right shooters had a higher number of victim and police casualties overall. A discussion of findings contextualises IMMS threats and explores strategies for countering the phenomenon.","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":"18 1","pages":"1 - 23"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-22","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42626165","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2022-02-21DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2022.2040741
Sara K. Thompson, E. Leroux
ABSTRACT Drawing on lessons learned from recently completed formative evaluations of police co-led CVE programming in Toronto, Ontario and Calgary, Alberta, this research aims to underscore the importance of, and provide technical guidance on, evaluation and reporting standards in the context of multi-agency CVE programming – which ultimately will help to facilitate the identification and replication of good practice. The results of the evaluative process highlight the need for greater articulation regarding intended program outcomes as well as program theorising regarding the underlying mechanisms that connect program activities and outputs with said intended outcomes. Both evaluations also demonstrated the importance of prioritising collaboration at both the evaluation-level and the program-level to facilitate successful and robust program implementation. As such, this study also yields findings that speak to the beneficial role that the evaluative process itself can play in facilitating the evolution of CVE programming.
{"title":"Lessons learned from dual site formative evaluations of Countering violent extremism (CVE) programming co-led by Canadian police","authors":"Sara K. Thompson, E. Leroux","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2022.2040741","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2022.2040741","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT\u0000 Drawing on lessons learned from recently completed formative evaluations of police co-led CVE programming in Toronto, Ontario and Calgary, Alberta, this research aims to underscore the importance of, and provide technical guidance on, evaluation and reporting standards in the context of multi-agency CVE programming – which ultimately will help to facilitate the identification and replication of good practice. The results of the evaluative process highlight the need for greater articulation regarding intended program outcomes as well as program theorising regarding the underlying mechanisms that connect program activities and outputs with said intended outcomes. Both evaluations also demonstrated the importance of prioritising collaboration at both the evaluation-level and the program-level to facilitate successful and robust program implementation. As such, this study also yields findings that speak to the beneficial role that the evaluative process itself can play in facilitating the evolution of CVE programming.","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":"18 1","pages":"24 - 42"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2022-02-21","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44519936","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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