Pub Date : 2023-10-26DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2023.2274614
Michael J. Ard
ABSTRACTThe 2013 terrorist attack at the In Amenas, Algeria gas production facility killed 40 innocent people and shook the corporate security industry. Analyzing this event raises important questions about the nature and limitations of intelligence warning for private industry. Corporate security intelligence has been adopted by many companies that desire a ‘decision advantage’, but in this case, it failed to foresee the attack. A seminal report on the attack produced by Statoil (now Equinor) encouraged numerous changes in how companies should protect themselves against severe security threats. One conclusion was that in uncertain and dangerous environments, intelligence cannot be relied upon to reduce uncertainty and provide adequate warning. The Statoil report acknowledges that the joint venture likely would not have gotten the intelligence necessary to warn of an impending attack. The core business is not necessarily focused on the changing threat environment. In this case, even more accurate ‘tactical’ intelligence might not have led to a timely evacuation. Moreover, as the Algerian Army's failure to prevent the In Amenas attack reveals, corporations' risk assessments cannot ignore the severe limitations of their host country security institutions. This case study raises some concerns about overvaluing corporate intelligence’s effectiveness in high-risk security environments.KEYWORDS: TerrorismwarningintelligenceAlgeriaoil and gas industry Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.
{"title":"Intelligence warning in the corporate sector: the 2013 In Amenas terrorist attack in retrospect","authors":"Michael J. Ard","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2023.2274614","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2023.2274614","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTThe 2013 terrorist attack at the In Amenas, Algeria gas production facility killed 40 innocent people and shook the corporate security industry. Analyzing this event raises important questions about the nature and limitations of intelligence warning for private industry. Corporate security intelligence has been adopted by many companies that desire a ‘decision advantage’, but in this case, it failed to foresee the attack. A seminal report on the attack produced by Statoil (now Equinor) encouraged numerous changes in how companies should protect themselves against severe security threats. One conclusion was that in uncertain and dangerous environments, intelligence cannot be relied upon to reduce uncertainty and provide adequate warning. The Statoil report acknowledges that the joint venture likely would not have gotten the intelligence necessary to warn of an impending attack. The core business is not necessarily focused on the changing threat environment. In this case, even more accurate ‘tactical’ intelligence might not have led to a timely evacuation. Moreover, as the Algerian Army's failure to prevent the In Amenas attack reveals, corporations' risk assessments cannot ignore the severe limitations of their host country security institutions. This case study raises some concerns about overvaluing corporate intelligence’s effectiveness in high-risk security environments.KEYWORDS: TerrorismwarningintelligenceAlgeriaoil and gas industry Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author.","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":"32 9","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"134901928","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-10-09DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2023.2266712
Jesse J. Norris, Joseph P. McFall, Hanna Grol-Prokopczyk
ABSTRACTPrevious research has found that entrapment – inducing suspects to commit crimes they were not already predisposed to commit – is widespread in US terrorism sting operations, particularly those involving Muslims and racial minorities. To test whether the sunk cost effect and/or intergroup biases could explain decisions to authorise these operations, we conducted an experiment in which college student and MTurk participants (n = 1009) from the US and India decided whether to approve an operation featuring apparent entrapment. Sunk costs and suspect characteristics were manipulated across experimental conditions. Results for US participants (n = 792) show that high sunk costs increased approval of the operation only for relatively young participants, and only in scenarios with non-Muslim suspects. Scenarios with Muslim suspects yielded higher approval rates for participants who were confident in their decision. Indian participants (n = 217) were more likely than US participants to approve the operation and were unaffected by suspect religion and sunk costs. Results suggest that the sunk cost bias may play some role in entrapment, although other factors, such as outgroup bias, may also contribute to these decisions. The observed cross-cultural differences could result from international variations in susceptibility to the sunk cost effect, among other factors.KEYWORDS: Sunk cost biascounterterrorismundercover policingentrapmentIndiaUnited States Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 This might change with a larger sample size; after all, in the 70 and above analysis, participants still had twice the odds of authorizing in the high-cost scenario.Additional informationFundingThis research was supported by a grant from the Baldy Center for Law & Social Policy at the University at Buffalo, SUNY (to H. Grol-Prokopczyk) and research support funding from the Office of the Provost, SUNY Fredonia (to J. J. Norris).
先前的研究发现，诱捕——诱导嫌疑人犯下他们没有犯罪倾向的罪行——在美国的恐怖主义诱捕行动中很普遍，特别是那些涉及穆斯林和少数民族的行动。为了检验沉没成本效应和/或群体间偏见是否可以解释授权这些行动的决定，我们进行了一项实验，来自美国和印度的大学生和土耳其人参与者(n = 1009)决定是否批准一项具有明显陷阱的行动。沉没成本和可疑特征在不同的实验条件下被操纵。美国参与者(n = 792)的结果表明，高沉没成本只增加了相对年轻的参与者对行动的认可，而且只在有非穆斯林嫌疑人的情况下。在有穆斯林嫌疑人的场景中，对自己的决定有信心的参与者获得了更高的支持率。印度参与者(n = 217)比美国参与者更有可能批准该行动，并且不受可疑宗教和沉没成本的影响。结果表明，沉没成本偏见可能在陷阱中发挥一定作用，尽管其他因素，如外群体偏见，也可能有助于这些决策。所观察到的跨文化差异可能是由于对沉没成本效应的易感性的国际差异，以及其他因素。关键词:沉没成本偏见反恐卧底警察陷阱印度美国披露声明作者未报告潜在利益冲突注1:这可能会随着样本量的增大而改变;毕竟，在70及以上的分析中，参与者在高成本情况下授权的几率仍然是两倍。本研究得到了纽约州立大学布法罗分校巴尔迪法律与社会政策中心(资助对象为H. Grol-Prokopczyk)和纽约州立大学弗里多尼亚分校教务长办公室(资助对象为J. J. Norris)的资助。
{"title":"Decision-making in terrorism sting operations: is entrapment driven by the sunk-cost effect and intergroup biases?","authors":"Jesse J. Norris, Joseph P. McFall, Hanna Grol-Prokopczyk","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2023.2266712","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2023.2266712","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACTPrevious research has found that entrapment – inducing suspects to commit crimes they were not already predisposed to commit – is widespread in US terrorism sting operations, particularly those involving Muslims and racial minorities. To test whether the sunk cost effect and/or intergroup biases could explain decisions to authorise these operations, we conducted an experiment in which college student and MTurk participants (n = 1009) from the US and India decided whether to approve an operation featuring apparent entrapment. Sunk costs and suspect characteristics were manipulated across experimental conditions. Results for US participants (n = 792) show that high sunk costs increased approval of the operation only for relatively young participants, and only in scenarios with non-Muslim suspects. Scenarios with Muslim suspects yielded higher approval rates for participants who were confident in their decision. Indian participants (n = 217) were more likely than US participants to approve the operation and were unaffected by suspect religion and sunk costs. Results suggest that the sunk cost bias may play some role in entrapment, although other factors, such as outgroup bias, may also contribute to these decisions. The observed cross-cultural differences could result from international variations in susceptibility to the sunk cost effect, among other factors.KEYWORDS: Sunk cost biascounterterrorismundercover policingentrapmentIndiaUnited States Disclosure statementNo potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s).Notes1 This might change with a larger sample size; after all, in the 70 and above analysis, participants still had twice the odds of authorizing in the high-cost scenario.Additional informationFundingThis research was supported by a grant from the Baldy Center for Law & Social Policy at the University at Buffalo, SUNY (to H. Grol-Prokopczyk) and research support funding from the Office of the Provost, SUNY Fredonia (to J. J. Norris).","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":"39 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-10-09","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"135096004","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-09-10DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2023.2257209
Michael Landon-Murray
The International Association for Intelligence Education (IAFIE) will be celebrating its 20th birthday in 2024. The establishment and development of IAFIE has corresponded to a remarkable growth in the number of college and university intelligence programs. This short piece gathers the views of four IAFIE Presidents relating to the state of the organisation as well as the intelligence education field. Presidents offered their take on a range of issues, including the contributions intelligence studies programs have (or have not) made to the intelligence workforce, the prospect of accreditation of academic intelligence programs, and needed curricular adaptations.
{"title":"The view from the top: IAFIE presidents on the organisation and the field","authors":"Michael Landon-Murray","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2023.2257209","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2023.2257209","url":null,"abstract":"The International Association for Intelligence Education (IAFIE) will be celebrating its 20th birthday in 2024. The establishment and development of IAFIE has corresponded to a remarkable growth in the number of college and university intelligence programs. This short piece gathers the views of four IAFIE Presidents relating to the state of the organisation as well as the intelligence education field. Presidents offered their take on a range of issues, including the contributions intelligence studies programs have (or have not) made to the intelligence workforce, the prospect of accreditation of academic intelligence programs, and needed curricular adaptations.","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":"50 1","pages":"0"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-09-10","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"136072337","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-23DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2023.2246982
J. Ebner, C. Kavanagh, H. Whitehouse
{"title":"Measuring socio-psychological drivers of extreme violence in online terrorist manifestos: an alternative linguistic risk assessment model","authors":"J. Ebner, C. Kavanagh, H. Whitehouse","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2023.2246982","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2023.2246982","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-23","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"47164829","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-08-14DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2023.2246973
Andrew T. H. Tan
{"title":"Countering radical terrorist ideology through psywar: lessons from the Malayan emergency","authors":"Andrew T. H. Tan","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2023.2246973","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2023.2246973","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-08-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"42174800","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-24DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2023.2228536
Tyler Clark, Ayushi R. Saxena, Thomas R. Guarrieri, Steve Sin
{"title":"A semi-stochastic algorithm approach to generating CBRNE terrorist attack plot scenarios","authors":"Tyler Clark, Ayushi R. Saxena, Thomas R. Guarrieri, Steve Sin","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2023.2228536","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2023.2228536","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-24","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48315264","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-13DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2023.2234923
Ryan Shaffer, J. Kaplan
ABSTRACT This special issue is offered as a retrospective about the impact of the 11 September 2001 attacks on the world community and how policing, intelligence, and counter terrorism have changed since the terrorist attacks. It brings together the perspectives and current research of scholars of policing and internal security, intelligence, and counter terrorism as well as the perspectives of practitioners from all three national security fields. The overall objective of this special issue is to emphasize the importance and unique contributions to both academia and national security that are made possible by bringing scholarly and practitioner perspectives together to better inform each others’ work.
{"title":"The legacy of 9/11: a retrospective","authors":"Ryan Shaffer, J. Kaplan","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2023.2234923","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2023.2234923","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT This special issue is offered as a retrospective about the impact of the 11 September 2001 attacks on the world community and how policing, intelligence, and counter terrorism have changed since the terrorist attacks. It brings together the perspectives and current research of scholars of policing and internal security, intelligence, and counter terrorism as well as the perspectives of practitioners from all three national security fields. The overall objective of this special issue is to emphasize the importance and unique contributions to both academia and national security that are made possible by bringing scholarly and practitioner perspectives together to better inform each others’ work.","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":"18 1","pages":"413 - 420"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-13","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"41985911","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-12DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2023.2234924
J. Kaplan
ABSTRACT ‘A World Remade’ is intended as a very personal afterword to the Special issue. It melds personal experience with historical analysis to consider the impact of 9/11 on both U.S. and global security.
{"title":"A world remade: 9/11, America and the western world","authors":"J. Kaplan","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2023.2234924","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2023.2234924","url":null,"abstract":"ABSTRACT ‘A World Remade’ is intended as a very personal afterword to the Special issue. It melds personal experience with historical analysis to consider the impact of 9/11 on both U.S. and global security.","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":"18 1","pages":"513 - 517"},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-12","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"44994635","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-07-03DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2023.2230981
Eric Halford
{"title":"The impact of COVID-19 on police intelligence reports in the United Kingdom","authors":"Eric Halford","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2023.2230981","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2023.2230981","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-07-03","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"48658666","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
Pub Date : 2023-06-26DOI: 10.1080/18335330.2023.2226667
Lewys Brace, Stephane J. Baele, Debbie Ging
{"title":"Where do ‘mixed, unclear, and unstable' ideologies come from? A data-driven answer centred on the incelosphere","authors":"Lewys Brace, Stephane J. Baele, Debbie Ging","doi":"10.1080/18335330.2023.2226667","DOIUrl":"https://doi.org/10.1080/18335330.2023.2226667","url":null,"abstract":"","PeriodicalId":37849,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Policing, Intelligence and Counter Terrorism","volume":" ","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":0.0,"publicationDate":"2023-06-26","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":null,"resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":"46939003","PeriodicalName":null,"FirstCategoryId":null,"ListUrlMain":null,"RegionNum":0,"RegionCategory":"","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":"","EPubDate":null,"PubModel":null,"JCR":null,"JCRName":null,"Score":null,"Total":0}
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