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FAILED STRATEGY? THE LEGACY OF BARACK OBAMA’S PRESIDENCY IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA 失败的战略?奥巴马总统在中东和北非的政治遗产
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-08 DOI: 10.22456/2238-6912.108984
M. Lewicka, Michał Dahl
The purpose of this paper is to verify whether “a failed strategy”, a phrase commonly used in the literature, is an adequate description of Barack Obama’s legacy in the Middle East and North Africa. Based on the selected political manifestos and actions in the sphere of diplomacy, it has been proven that the Middle East and North Africa was not a priority to the decision-makers in Washington in the years 2009–2012, unlike in the years 2005–2008. However, although President Obama did not manage to implement most of his original plans, he achieved a few significant successes, the most notable of which is the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and the conclusion of the nuclear deal with Iran. Authors seek to contextualize and explain Obama’s failures and successes, arguing that using the phrase “a failed strategy” does not reflect the complexity of the problems analyzed.
本文的目的是验证“一个失败的战略”,一个经常在文献中使用的短语,是否足以描述巴拉克·奥巴马在中东和北非的遗产。根据选定的政治宣言和外交领域的行动,已经证明中东和北非在2009-2012年不是华盛顿决策者的优先事项,与2005-2008年不同。然而,尽管奥巴马总统没有成功地实施他最初的大部分计划,但他取得了一些重大成功,其中最引人注目的是美国从伊拉克撤军和与伊朗达成核协议。作者试图将奥巴马的失败和成功置于背景中加以解释,认为使用“失败的战略”一词并不能反映所分析问题的复杂性。
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引用次数: 1
THE ENDURING RELEVANCE OF NAVAL POWER: REFLECTIONS ON DEFENCE, SECURITY AND POWER PROJECTION OF SEA FRONTIER 海军力量的持久相关性:对海上边界防御、安全和力量投射的思考
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-08 DOI: 10.22456/2238-6912.113269
S. Oyewole, A. Duyile
The sea/maritime domain is a critical frontier of human exploration and exploitation for food production, transportation, commerce, research, communication, mining, defence, security, power projection and prestige in international system. These made it a frontier of strategic cooperation, competition and conflict. Consequently, the sea has been militarised by littoral states, which have led to the rise of naval powers, across time and space. Naval power is strategically relevant in defence, security and power projection, as evident in its roles in warfare, deterrence, policing, and diplomacy across history. This is even more pronounced during the golden age of naval power, when the roles of the navy were decisive in outcomes of war, territorial defence and conquest, empire building and maintenance, bargaining, industrialisation, commerce and global policing. However, the strategic relevance of naval power has undergone notable changes with the rise of air, nuclear and space powers. Against this background, this article examines the enduring strategic relevance of naval power over the last century, vis-à-vis its challenges and prospects among other instruments of force and frontiers of defence, security and power projection that have emerged.
海洋领域是人类探索和开发粮食生产、运输、商业、研究、通信、采矿、国防、安全、力量投射和在国际体系中的威望的关键前沿。这使它成为战略合作、竞争和冲突的前沿。因此,沿海国家已经将海洋军事化,这导致了海军力量的崛起,跨越了时间和空间。海军力量在国防、安全和力量投送方面具有战略意义,这一点从历史上海军在战争、威慑、警务和外交方面的作用就可以看出来。这在海军力量的黄金时代更为明显,当时海军在战争结果、领土防御和征服、帝国建设和维护、谈判、工业化、商业和全球警务方面发挥着决定性作用。然而,随着航空、核力量和太空力量的崛起,海军力量的战略相关性发生了显著变化。在此背景下,本文考察了海军力量在上个世纪的持久战略相关性,以及-à-vis在其他力量工具和国防、安全和力量投射领域中所面临的挑战和前景。
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引用次数: 1
REVITALIZATION OF MARITIME SILK ROAD BASED ON THE SECURITY IMPLICATIONS AND COOPERATION 振兴海上丝绸之路的安全内涵与合作
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-08 DOI: 10.22456/2238-6912.108771
H. Akib, Lutfi Syaefullah, Hamsu Abdul Gani
The revitalization of the Silk Road as a trade route, cultural exchange, religion, science and civilization based on the “Maritime Silk Road” (MSR) is the focus of strategic studies and international relations. ASEAN countries, including Indonesia in the MSR route and the contestation of the United States and China who are fighting for dominance in the Indo-Pacific region, face challenges and opportunities. The results of this research, which uses a normative approach, show that the revitalization of the MSR may give positive impacts to China’s foreign affairs for the good interaction and communication among people by economic trade.
以“海上丝绸之路”为基础,振兴丝绸之路作为贸易之路、文化交流之路、宗教之路、科学文明之路,是战略研究和国际关系的热点。包括印尼在内的“一带一路”沿线的东盟国家,以及争夺印太地区主导权的美国和中国的争夺,都面临着挑战和机遇。本研究采用规范性研究方法,研究结果表明,复兴丝绸之路对中国外交产生积极影响,促进人民之间通过经济贸易进行良好的互动和交流。
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引用次数: 0
PRIORIZAÇÃO DE ACORDOS MULTILATERAIS DE CONTROLE DE EXPORTAÇÃO DE PRODUTOS DE DEFESA E TECNOLOGIAS SENSÍVEIS POR PROCESSO DE ANÁLISE HIERÁRQUICA 通过分层分析程序对国防产品和敏感技术出口管制多边协定进行优先排序
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-08 DOI: 10.22456/2238-6912.119666
L. O. Gavião, Luciano Dias Dutra, S. Kostin
This paper proposes a model to support the decision to choose which multilateral export control regime of defense products and sensitive technologies in which Brazil does not yet participate, namely, Wassenaar Arrangement, Australia Group and Zangger Committee, should be prioritized for adhesion. For the development of this model, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) method was used, considered adequate for solving problems where criteria are qualitative and decisions tend to be based on personal experiences. The hierarchical structure of the problem used seven criteria (Country Legislation, Regulatory System, Licensing Structure, Enforcement Capacity, International Cooperation, Costs of Adhesion and Benefits for the Defense Industrial Base) to compare the three mentioned agreements. A questionnaire was set up and specialists related to National Defense were selected to answer them, after which their answers were collected, standardized, processed and analyzed. At the end, the agreements were ordered by preference to support decision making, illustrating the application of the proposed model.
本文提出了一个模型来支持巴西在尚未加入的国防产品和敏感技术多边出口管制机制中选择优先加入的决策,即瓦森纳安排、澳大利亚集团和桑格委员会。对于该模型的开发,使用了层次分析法(AHP)方法,该方法被认为足以解决标准是定性的问题,并且决策往往基于个人经验。问题的层次结构使用七个标准(国家立法,监管制度,许可结构,执行能力,国际合作,粘附成本和国防工业基地的利益)来比较上述三个协议。设计问卷,选取国防相关专家进行回答,收集、标准化、处理、分析。最后,将协议按偏好排序,以支持决策,说明所提出模型的应用。
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引用次数: 0
ORÇAMENTO EM DEFESA E CAPACIDADES ESTRATÉGICAS: DISSIMILARIDADES ENTRE OS PAÍSES DA AMÉRICA DO SUL 国防预算和战略能力:南美国家之间的差异
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-08 DOI: 10.22456/2238-6912.118036
A. Neves, Tássio Franchi
We take into account that interpretations of security complexes, traditions of long peace, and violent peace do not fully explain how South American countries are organized regarding Defense. Given those, we ran a cluster analysis with data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) and Military Balance report with economic defense expenditure and capabilities investment from South American countries to identify how they are organized, determining those that are most similar to each other (which would form complexes) and how they differ from the others (dissimilarities). The results showed four different clusters: the first formed by Chile, Peru, Argentina, and Bolivia; the second by Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador and Paraguay; the third only by the Guyana; and the fourth, formed only by Uruguay. We interpreted these clusters considering the history of conflicts, current countries threats and treaties.
我们考虑到,对安全复合体、长期和平传统和暴力和平的解释并不能充分解释南美国家在国防方面的组织方式。鉴于此,我们对斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所(SIPRI)和军事平衡报告中的数据进行了聚类分析,其中包括来自南美国家的经济国防支出和能力投资,以确定它们是如何组织的,确定那些彼此最相似的(这将形成复合体)以及它们与其他国家的差异(差异)。结果显示出四个不同的集群:第一个集群由智利、秘鲁、阿根廷和玻利维亚组成;第二次是巴西、哥伦比亚、厄瓜多尔和巴拉圭;第三名是圭亚那;第四个是由乌拉圭组成的。我们考虑到冲突的历史、当前国家的威胁和条约来解释这些集群。
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引用次数: 0
THE SINO-RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICS IN EURASIA AND CHINA-USA DISPUTES: ASIA-PACIFIC-GREATER EURASIA VS INDO-PACIFIC 欧亚大陆的中俄地缘政治与中美争端:亚太-大欧亚vs印太
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-08 DOI: 10.22456/2238-6912.117778
Lucas Gualberto do Nascimento, Marcos Cordeiro Pires
This article aims to analyze the main elements and processes underway in Eurasia, involving three essential actors: the United States, Russia, and China. At first, it is emphasized the importance of Eurasia as a space that has historically influenced the hegemonic disputes between Great Powers. Then, Eurasia is analyzed as a space for development cooperation, presenting the intersections of the Chinese BRI and the Russian EAEU. Last, the US approach to China is addressed, specifically the Indo-Pacific strategy. We conclude that despite the intense pressure to contain the rise of China and Russia in Eurasia, rivaling both powers is not feasible. In the current path, it will boost the cooperation between two giants, China and Russia.
本文旨在分析欧亚大陆正在进行的主要因素和进程,涉及三个重要角色:美国、俄罗斯和中国。首先,它强调欧亚大陆作为一个历史上影响大国之间霸权争端的空间的重要性。然后,将欧亚大陆作为发展合作空间进行分析,呈现中国“一带一路”倡议与俄罗斯“欧亚经济联盟”倡议的交叉点。最后,阐述了美国对中国的态度,特别是印太战略。我们的结论是,尽管遏制中国和俄罗斯在欧亚大陆崛起的压力很大,但与这两个大国竞争是不可行的。在目前的道路上,它将促进中国和俄罗斯这两个巨人之间的合作。
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引用次数: 0
THE DYNAMICS OF THE SUCCESSION OF CURRENCIES IN THE 21ST CENTURY – A CASE OF CHINESE FINANCIAL LEADERSHIP? 21世纪货币更替的动态——中国金融领导力的一个例子?
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-08 DOI: 10.22456/2238-6912.113284
Gustavo Hermínio Salati Marcondes de Moraes, Leonardo Giacomin
The global monetary system since the Industrial Revolution in two periods had two periods. First, a period with Britain as the great economic and political power and the Pound Sterling as the most important international currency and second, the United States as the leading economy and a dollar-based international scenario. The relation between goods, money, and foreign exchange markets is important to understand patterns in terms of exchange rate and currency internationalization. Therefore, the Crowther balance of payments cycles may be important to identify these patterns and to serve as a standard of reference to investigate shifts in exchange rate, and their consequences on balance of payments movements. Since 1978, China has emerged as a strong candidate to assume protagonist in the global monetary system, displaying high and stable economic growth. This paper aims to investigate the necessary conditions for China to internationalize the Renminbi, local currency, and to infer its status in that progress.
全球货币体系自工业革命以来经历了两个时期两个时期。第一阶段是英国成为经济和政治强国,英镑成为最重要的国际货币;第二阶段是美国成为主要经济体,以美元为基础的国际格局。商品、货币和外汇市场之间的关系对于理解汇率和货币国际化的模式非常重要。因此,克劳瑟国际收支周期对于确定这些模式和作为调查汇率变动及其对国际收支变动的影响的参考标准可能是重要的。自1978年以来,中国表现出高速稳定的经济增长,成为全球货币体系中扮演主角的有力候选人。本文旨在探讨中国人民币国际化的必要条件,并推断其在这一进程中的地位。
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引用次数: 0
NEW DAWN OR ETERNAL TWILIGHT? 新的黎明还是永恒的黄昏?
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-08 DOI: 10.22456/2238-6912.119804
V. Shubin
The article was prepared within the project "Post-crisis world order: challenges and technologies, competition and cooperation" supported by the grant from Ministry of Science and Higher Education of the Russian Federation program for research projects in priority areas of scientific and technological development (Agreement № 075-15-2020-783).
本文是在俄罗斯联邦科学和高等教育部科技发展优先领域研究项目(第07515-2020 -783号协议)资助的“后危机世界秩序:挑战与技术、竞争与合作”项目下编写的。
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引用次数: 0
GLOBALIZATION AND THE CHANGING CONCEPT OF NATO 全球化和北约概念的变化
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-08 DOI: 10.22456/2238-6912.117757
Umair Khan, Kashaf Sohail
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) has been the most important and successful multilateral military cum political organization, pursuing the agenda of exporting democracy globally and ensuring the mutual defense of its allies. Historically, NATO was formed against the threat of communism emanating from USSR (Russia). The alliance did not use military option till the end of the cold war between the west and USSR, but post-cold war, it transformed and operated in Balkans, South Asia, Horn of Africa, and Middle East. The 9/11 incident further enhanced the military role of the organization and gave it ample reason to act internationally for ensuring the global security. America, being the leader of the alliance used it for fighting the so-called global war on terrorism and its adventures in Middle East. Nevertheless, in the last two decades the organization went through various changes and is now continuously in the state of transformation. The wave of populism which had influenced the very concept of globalization has posed serious challenges for the alliance. The Trump rhetoric of “America first”, BREXIT, challenges of migration, changing demography of Europe, assertion of Russia in global politics, confrontation between the NATO allies like Turkey and France, and rise of China are few factors which may affect the future of the so-called intergovernmental military alliance. This article concurrently discusses the new challenges for the NATO and sheds light on the possible options to the strategy of Biden administration to reverse the policies of its predecessor which have influenced the cooperation of different allies of NATO. In the end researcher has tried to put forth few recommendations which may help the policy makers to cope with the challenges NATO is facing. The study is qualitative and analytical in nature whereas primary as well as secondary sources are used for data collection.
北大西洋公约组织(北约)一直是最重要和最成功的多边军事和政治组织,它奉行向全球输出民主和确保其盟国相互防御的议程。从历史上看,北约的成立是为了抵御来自苏联(俄罗斯)的共产主义威胁。直到西方和苏联之间的冷战结束,北约才开始使用军事选项,但冷战后,它在巴尔干半岛、南亚、非洲之角和中东地区进行了转型和运作。9/11事件进一步加强了该组织的军事作用,并使其有充分的理由采取国际行动,以确保全球安全。作为联盟的领导者,美国利用北约打击所谓的全球反恐战争,并在中东冒险。然而,在过去的二十年中,该组织经历了各种变化,现在不断处于转型状态。曾经影响全球化概念本身的民粹主义浪潮对联盟构成了严重挑战。特朗普“美国优先”的言论、英国脱欧、移民的挑战、欧洲人口结构的变化、俄罗斯在全球政治中的主张、土耳其和法国等北约盟国之间的对抗以及中国的崛起,这些都是可能影响所谓的政府间军事联盟未来的几个因素。本文同时讨论了北约面临的新挑战,并揭示了拜登政府扭转其前任影响北约各盟国合作的政策的可能战略选择。最后,研究人员试图提出一些建议,以帮助决策者应对北约面临的挑战。该研究本质上是定性和分析性的,而主要和次要来源用于数据收集。
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引用次数: 0
SECURITY STUDIES IN INTERNATIONAL RELATIONS: EVOLUTION, APPROACHES AND CONTEMPORARY CHALLENGES 国际关系中的安全研究:演变、方法和当代挑战
Q4 Social Sciences Pub Date : 2021-12-08 DOI: 10.22456/2238-6912.117331
Ali Muhammad, S. Riyanto
This article examines the growth and evolution of security studies since its emergence to the end the Cold War. Security studies as a subfield in international relations was dominated by realist approach during the Cold War. However, by the of the cold war, the concept of security was debated between the widener–deepener. Not only about the concept, but variety of theoretical approaches also emerged to challenge the traditional realist/liberal approach, such as, constructivism, critical theory, feminism, human security and postcolonialism. There were crucial differences in how these competing approaches constituted referent objects, the sectors to which security is applicable, and epistemological position as well. 
本文考察了自冷战结束以来安全研究的发展与演变。安全研究作为国际关系的一个分支,在冷战时期以现实主义研究方法为主导。然而,到冷战结束时,安全概念的争论在拓宽和深化之间展开。不仅在概念上,还出现了各种各样的理论方法来挑战传统的现实主义/自由主义方法,如建构主义、批判理论、女权主义、人类安全、后殖民主义等。在这些相互竞争的方法如何构成参照对象、安全适用的领域以及认识论立场方面,存在着至关重要的差异。
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引用次数: 0
期刊
Austral: Brazilian Journal of Strategy and International Relations
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